No, you don’t need to replace Electric Car Batteries in 10 years time
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 พ.ย. 2023
- No, you don’t need to replace Electric Car Batteries in 10 years time
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I own a 2018 Model S 75D, easily the best car I've ever driven. It's so freaking fast. I've also got Full Self Driving. I'm 71, so this is my last car. I'll give it to my granddaughter to drive around college in 20 years. Battery prices are also dropping quickly.
It will be an autonomous car soon. You'll definitely be alive to see it sir.
You'll need a new battery in 20 years. Rest of car might be OK
@@TheJoncic You funny, you say this on a video explaining this as you don't understand. 😄 Even so this myth was true, do you think in 20 years batteries will still improve? Cost less ? And less and probably, like it is the case for petrol car, you will probably wanting to improve your car in 20 years and most do it in 5 years, LOL ? I prefer to have all those money I save in my pocket, compared to the way, overpriced gas that money go to anybody exception of customer using those petrol car. 😉
Existing cars won't be autonomous. Full self driving is nothing but vaporware@@-whackd - When it eventuates, it won't work on older cars due to their lower processing power and lower quality sensor quite.
Tesla should have kept battery swap
Our I-MiEV is 14 yrs old, using 14 year old battery tech, its still fine, lost about 25% capacity, but still gives all the range we need.
I wonder if we will someday see battery packs being swapped out for rebuilt used battery packs, like they do for ICE transmissions and motors now. The vendor would take your old battery pack and rebuild it for use in another vehicle. This would further reduce the costs of battery replacements.
Yeah it will be done at a garage of the Tesla autonomous car company, and Teslabots will do the swap while they vacuum the seats and clean the interior between customers.
What I'm saying is, swapping batteries is so far out in the future, there will be no market for it until we have lots of cars at 600,000+ miles. Only taxis, delivery drivers, etc will have that many miles before 2030.
@@-whackd I saw a video about an Uber driver who bought a four-year-old Tesla, then drove 200,000 miles in one year and was fussing because his battery performance was becoming degraded.
100% yes, this is happening now
This happens already.
@@kencotton4645that Uber guy will have the same problem with an ice car. He will complain that is so much less performant, noisier, etc
A youth entrepreneur named Hayden Sonnad runs a service called Tesloop between LA and Vegas. The had to replace a battery at over 600,000 miles (this was also an earlier chemistry battery. I think it was at under 80% of its initial capacity, so Tesla gave them a new one free.
More videos on this topic please
I drive about 400km per week, that is about 21,000km per year. battery degradation is not an issue. with less than 20% degradation for 300,000km.
A company called Tesloop that runs a back and forth service between LA and Vegas for years, had to replace a Tesla battery at over 600,000 miles. I believe Tesla did it free, thanking them for the info.
Mates model S 200k 2017 has lost 20 percent
Kim Java has go fund me for man that had to replace at 125 000 and after replacement he can only charge to 80 percent
You are generally right but there are some rare cases where batteries have failed early and we don't know why which is really frustrating. Most people will never have an issue.
Those are likely old Nissan Leaf or Zoe's, anything with modern chemistry like LFP tends to have good BMS and diagnostics built into the management systems.
As Sam said you can replace bad cells and test the various cells of a pack, so fault finding is actually easy.
...we do know why...it's water intrusion that corrodes circuit boards in the battery packs and or compromises the cells...the key is finding a qualified repair shop to be able to do proper repairs instead of junking the entire pack while over 95% of it is still viable...
Anybody tested corals bms over current protection drives??? Don’t take a rocket scientists cause I ain’t even close
Jai Hinduja. As some consolations, it may be better for a faulty battery to fail early than to self-combust later.
I had a Mazda pick up. The timing belt broke and I needed to get a new engine. I had a Ford Zephyr where the welch plug failed, needed a full overhaul. A friend has a Merc M model who's just been quoted R38,000 to replace engine mountings (that's SA Rands). All these examples were under 50 000Kms. It's about time people started talking about the cost of ICE repairs in the time before that ICE car gets to 250000 miles, EV battery change, maybe.
2014 P85 here with 95k and original battery that only has 7.5% degradation or 92.5% of original capacity.
WOW, that's awesome. If your at 92% after basically 10 years. Just imagine what the new Teslas can do.
Good to know . 😂
I'm not going to complain too much about EV myths just yet. That FUD is keeping demand in check and leading to lower prices. Those folks saved me $20,000 on my Model Y. I don't want to see demand and prices go back to 2022 levels. When production starts to outpace demand in a big way maybe I'll correct them then.
drop in demand has all to do with higher interest rates vs 2021/early 2022 and has nothing to do with FUD. Once central banks start pumping money again, prices will go back up.
@@Fear.of.the.Dark. Interesting…I didn’t think about that. So monetary policy really does control inflation?
@@frankcoffey you have to pay 10% starting interest rates on auto loans these days with great credit vs 1-3% interest rate in 2020/2021. Why do you think Musk is forced to reduce Tesla prices?
Good point
The batter in modern EVs like Tesla will easily outlast the warranty and the payments. For many this is the "life of the car" because they typical driver in the US either wants a new car at that point or need a different type of vehicle. If you are talking about a Nissan Leaf with no thermal management system all bets are off. Tesla has made over 5 million cars over the last 12 years and most of them are still going so it's not speculation anymore.
I’m betting in 12-15 years when my Tesla battery is likely dead, the tech will have developed to make replacement way cheaper than it is today. If not, 10k for a refurbished pack is not the end of the world.
Personally I do not suffer from Range Anxiety. My issue rather is with Charger Anxiety, or put another way , not enough chargers available outside metropolitan areas. For example, one trip I take up to four times a year is from Tucson Arizona to southeastern Colorado, about a 660 mile trip. For the first 240 miles , chargers galore , but absolutely zero chargers for the remaining 440 miles, so fat chance of driving a Tesla all the way there. This will change in time but for now it's a literal no go for EV's.
Broken chargers
Great info, thanks!
i have a 2016 Model S P100D 250k miles, 84% capacity, very decent
I bet it performs like a race car still! The performance of that model s is like no other. No delay in power. Literally instant acceleration. And that performance is every single day. There's no clutch to fix, no transmission to lock up. No engine to blow up or rpm to worry about. You can't jump time or or burn a valve. There's no adjustments because of cheaper fuel. None of the things that are typical concerns involving a ice sports car. And the highest safety scores in crash testing ever obtained in any class of vehicle.. May not be the perfect car but it's closer to perfect then any ice sports car..
I have owned and operated a Lexus RX 400h since August 2005. It has over 230,000 miles on it. The Hybrid battery has never been changes and still seems to be going strong. My wife and I think this car is the best car either of us has ever owned.
That’s wild! My 2013 Prius pack was replaced this year as it no longer functioned in hot weather at 140k miles. No codes yet, probably could have limped it 2 more years but the new battery give me more powers and way better economy so it was worth $2,200 to me. I plan to keep the car manny more years.
@@mylesgray3470 I think I read somewhere that the Prius does not have a cooling fan in the battery pack like the RX. I thought that was just the older ones and they started including the fan in newer models. I thought that happened before 2013. Does yours have the cooling fan? Maybe that is why the battery failed with such low mileage.
@@genethesurveyor Mine does have a cooling fan. The problem is, it hardly runs at all, even when I knew the battery was hot. They tied the fan speed to driving speed so the sound wouldn’t be annoying. They also change the cutoff temperature for the battery to stop working with a software update to something like 120 degrees F, which is a problem when it’s that hot in the parking lot. That change was supposed to lengthen battery lifespan but I found it to be a problem for my aging battery. I upgraded to a lithium aftermarket battery last spring and it has been awesome. None of my cells were “bad” so I sold them all for about $700 total.
@@genethesurveyorthe third gen Prius does have a high voltage cooling fan.
I read a study sometime ago that it's not about the frequency of charging battery, but the from what level to what level. If you charge only from 35% - 75% say 8000 cycles, it will still be better than charging from 5% to 100% only 1000 cycles. The latter "deep cycle" charging actually does more damage to the battery than frequent "shallow" charging.
True
True for lithium ion batteries not LFP's
@@larryc1616 Actually LFPs are Lithium ion. What you meant to say is that It's true for NMCs but not for LFPs
Heat is a big factor.
Charging to 100% on the hottest day, then sitting idle will cause the greatest degradation
I believe today's EVs don't have this problem. But I'm suspicious that if you purchase a 2013 24kwh Nissan leaf or VW e-golf with ~100k km, you're not gonna come close to 250k km
That's fair. The point is that the chemistries have improved significantly over the past decade, and NOW claiming that NEW BEV's with, say, LFP batteries from good makers like Tesla or BYD will need a new battery fairly soon -- are just NONSENSE.
But of course, the usual far right science denying suspects try to promulgate that story.
Buddy of mine has a 10 year old leaf with 140k miles on it. It’s down 30% on capacity and given how poor the range was new, that’s pretty devastating and he has to charge at work every day. If my Tesla degrades the same amount, I’ll still have over 200 miles of range.
My understanding is that early Leaf’s don’t have battery management systems that heat and cool the battery when charging or discharging to optimise power and therefore will degrade faster than newer Evs with sophisticated BMS
Wow. I guess my 2022 BMW iX xDrive50 electric SUV will be here longer than me at 77 now. 😊
Battery degradation is not linear. Year 1 about 3%, year 2 about 2%, year 3 about 1.5%. I think the ultimate question is not whether or not the battery will catastrophically fail in 20 years or if it’s just a matter of reduced capacity.
I have a 18 volt lithium battery Ryobi drill that was heavily used and is 20 years old . I have had other that lasted 5 years with a dead cell . One dead one is all she wrote . So many factors . The thing is you never know what your going to get but like anything the better you take care of it the longer it will last
Which means extra-stress!
Nice summary. I do, however, think there are some gaps in the story and narrative told. Yes, EV batteries last long. I do, however, one aspect why the question still looms on the myth of fud on EV battery life, where this narrative perhaps slightly misses the mark of convincing. I think one aspect of durability and battery replacement is not only the cumulative odometer distance a battery can hit but also maintenance of performance per range on a given day without loss of convenience. I think that narrative will address one aspect not mentioned here. So say you need and EV that can consistently perform 300 miles of performance per charge irrespective of season and weather, and still manage to perform consistently after 10 years, despite degradation over time, I think that is a very powerful statement, even compared to an ice vehicle. And yes, those stats I believe exist, too. Another thing to mention perhaps to put some body and weight to the story is to compare the performance of range to an average ice car on a single tank of fuel after a high mileage vehicle might be equal or perhaps less than a comparable EV at the same mileage. Those are also very good comparators to address and make the durability of EV batteries insightful. I think the narrative of moving parts argument and odometer to capacity has been argued enough, and I think the narrative with time, I think, makes the more granular arguments more insightful.
I think the gap of the simple repairability of EV batteries is missing an important point of fear of loss of warranty for considering battery repairs. I'm all for it. Despite production quality high production rates in my view will always produce some sort of production error and quality no matter how much QC you do. There will also be a one in a million average incident of an EV or batch of EVs affected. We're even seeing this today, unfortunately, with certain brands.
I think therefore for a single owner, it is quite wasteful to simply replace a faulty battery , especially when it comes to the mantra of scarcity of resources, and reduce, reuse, recycle noble narrative. I'm for that and the right to repair. But to my knowledge battery repair has always been tricky, because it likely voids warranty. I think this issue should be addressed. And unfortunately not all EV makers make repairable batteries, when it comes to finding the balance between repair and safety issue. In that regard Tesla is a bad investment on terms of battery repair, because they chose a structural battery design and safety, which means the batteries are insulated with single use heat resistant foam, and is virtually impossible to repair. The batteries are not modular too. As a flagship vehicle this has always given me an itch of frustration, because inessence they limit the realistic repair options. And if other brands follow suit this will only further increase repair options , the value of servicing (modular repair vs parts repair) and their limitbcustomer options. If other EV makers follow suit this will only limit repair values in favor of planned obsolescence. I'm curious to know which repair path is more favorable and think the jury is very much out on this matter. I think ot is similar to the Fairphone discussion and software locked components limiting to only artificially apple certified repair of the screen and battery and that something simple as a battery replacement of a battery is software locked only for one specific iPhone, but cannot work on another iPhone is truly a bizar state of repair. I'm curious to know what the future of EV battery repair will look like in the future. Will it remain universal, or software locked by Tesla?
I think the black stuff price of 10000 dollars per ton won't take long to drop. Other it is not economical in the long run. For companies many resource models are usually buy cheap in bulk and sell for profit. If battery companies buy black stuff for 10000 dollars per ton and sell for 30000 dollars, EV batteries will remain expensive and EVs will never get cheap. Yes batteries are valuable and it's resource materials too, but it will only be so of the price is right for the business. I think the batteries are valuable for the customer because despite and EV battery being off capacity and needing replacement, the degradation I believe is an average over all the cells. We no that with multiple EV battery cells they always drift away from each other over time which causes voltage and capacity difference of each cell. Some cells of a 70% capacity pack will have individual cells with 70%, 100% and some 40%. So there will be good and bad cells over time no matter how good a bms is. But we can get very accurate in cell balancing.g techniques. So with the high quality batteries you can use the capacity energy for a slew of different applications, as a pack or individually selected cells. So a second life purpose is there and that is amazing. And high quality remaining cells are high value Yes, because they are practically new. So as an owner of a pack you can do more with this remaining energy storage as for example energy harvesting or being a small energy provider, which has potential for a micro energy provider as a service. I think that makes owning an EV extremely interesting as a future micro business proposition, dealing in energy for a prive. I think that can be lucrative especially woth emergency or energy demands on the go. I think therefore too that V2L, V2G and V2H support for any EV is a huge missed opportunity and interesting value proposition for future EV customers, maybe even more interesting than full self driving, beamcause of the potential flexibility of energy provider as a service potential. Everyone needs energy power. Not everyone need full self driving. In that regard I think Tesla missed their opportunity by not supporting and bidirectional charging amd/or grid support to any of their current Tesla's on the market. I think what Kia and Hyundai are doing with many of their wehicles with V2L is very smart with regard to future proofing the EVs.
Even if my EV can only do 2000 deep cycles, I don't charge my car every day, and never use it to a zero state of charge - I charge every 3 to 4 days toping it up from about 20% to 80%. That's 100 charges a year, and the battery is babied all the way. I also generally don't fast charge, but charge at home. So I shouldn't see noticeable degradation for a good many years. My last electric car did 130,000km, and I saw no difference in range. So I have no real concerns.
That's why it's important to have a big battery, even when you don't drive that much. You'll accumulate far less charging cycles over time.
@@svr5423Except that in Teslas, the difference between the standard and long range isn't that much extra battery. And LFP batteries, as used in the base Tesla Model 3 RWD, are supposed to have twice the cycle life of the battery chemistries used in the longer range versions.
Love your reporting, we’re talking mostly about Lithium batteries. Where are we with the Sodium batteries that supposedly do not have the overheating and combustion issues?
What combustion issues?
As soon as Battery Management Systems were improved, like in more recent batteries the overheating stopped, it's not present in Lithium Iron Phosphate chemistries, which is what most EVs use now.
LFP tends to be able to handle well over 2,000 cycles, likely 5,000, whereas Sodium can handle 10,000 cycles, so the life of the batteries will be massive.
Sodium batteries don't last as much as Lithium batteries
LFP
I am hopeful that LFP batteries will reach 10,000 cycle longevity at the end of this decade. However, let’s remember the gentleman interviewed on TH-cam who used his 2019 standard range Tesla as a ride share for his business. He put 128,000 miles in about 1 year and his battery dropped off to 35 miles of range. He would charge it overnight at home and supercharge it twice per day. He took it to Tesla and they basically said, “what did you expect?” He would routinely charge to 90%. He was forced to replace the entire battery pack for a cost of $9k. It ends up, his Toyota Camry was cheaper to operate the ride share business as it is reliable. I think the newer batteries will address this issue.
There is another guy with a similar story doing ride share in California with a model 3. His was under warrantee but his replacement also failed so he was on his 3rd battery. I’d say a Prius is a safer bet for taxi and I really hope my battery does much better charging at home to 80% daily, level 1 charging.
Haven’t seen the video, and I’m not claiming that there’s a 100% right or wrong answer here. I will mention that it’s easy to see the headline $9k battery replacement cost and assume that it’s cheaper to operate a gas vehicle, but unless he tracks the cost of gas vs. electricity to “fill” the car and other consumables like oil changes it’s not really possible to say whether he would be further ahead with gas vs. EV. As a baseline, assume the basics like tires and suspension will both be equally expensive to maintain over the distance. After that, factor in (off the cuff calculation) a minimum $750 in oil changes if done at 5k mile intervals, unless doing them yourself which means unpaid extra work. Likewise, the motor on a car driven that distance in a year is going to have potentially major stuff about to go wrong, water pump, belts, spark plugs need changing etc. An EV with that distance has no concerns with the electric motor, the battery is really the most expensive “consumable”. Likewise if driven reasonably, the brakes on the EV should last longer if using max regen braking. Finally, although EVs have a transmission, it’s a single speed so there are never gear changes and transmission oil change intervals are ridiculously far apart, in fact GM suggests that it doesn’t need changing on the Bolt.
I’d have to locate the study, but actuaries in the insurance industry have now crunched the numbers and calculate that the long-term ownership cost of an EV is less than a comparable combustion engine vehicle, even considering the higher initial purchase price. My own experience is 125k kilometres on my 2018 Chevy Bolt with zero maintenance cost except tires and brakes. Battery issue for possible fires was dealt with by GM. Charging at home costs me about $8 for 320-400 km of driving, car is primarily used for commuting. Of course, that’s a single example and I could be an outlier, but from the friends I have that also own EVs, their experiences are similar - a bit more to buy up-front but then just very cheap to operate. Based on my estimates, I’ve just surpassed the crossover point where the initial price difference has been made up by the savings not having to buy gas and do other maintenance, at least here in Canada where I live.
I also definitely hope that successive generations of batteries will have both more recharge cycles as well as better volumetric energy density and faster recharge times, although they’re pretty fast already.
I heard about the man from Nantucket, who bought an EV and it ran off with his wife.
Had to pay for the battery on top of all that. In gold bullion.
There are *two* factors - cycles, which is pretty much analogous to mileage, and calendar aging which will be independent from usage. If EV batteries can make it to 20 years (assuming reasonable mileage/charge cycles), then EVs will retain their resale value along the lines of ICE cars or a bit better. But if the batteries start dying just from old age at 15 years, then cars that are 12 years old (average age of cars in the U.S.) will have little value as they approach the hard deck. Time will answer this.
it also depends on how much a replacement battery pack would cost at that time. If it’s not that much more than a replacement engine for ICE cars, then not a big deal either.
@@xsu-is7vq it's also normal to replace the batteries on ICE cars every now and then.
No one disputes that batteries can last a long time. The problem still is the percentage that fail due to mechanical or thermal stresses or manufacturing quality problems. If the uptime number isn't 100%, the cost is born by an unlikely few, and no one wants to be in that group. The solution is insurance for the life of the car, and not just the battery. Unfortunately, that might be expensive but at least the numbers won't lie like everyone just speculating how long they are good for.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 I think battery insurance is actually a good idea. If the incidents of battery failure are indeed low, then the cost of insurance would reflect that. If the price of battery insurance is high, it would indicate to me that the batteries are failing higher than believed. The fact that Tesla (or any) manufacturer doesn't offer insurance past the warranty makes me wonder about what they think the average lifespan of an EV pack will be.
@@ohger1even a minor fender bender in a Tesla can result in the entire battery pack needing to be replaced as it’s impossible to validate that every cell is safe.
My 2012 Prius PHEV battery is used daily as an EV and lost around 22% capacity so that aligns with Sam's reported 2% degredation per annum. Its got 160,0000km
thank you for your on spot report
Yes this is the one route out west that is problematic few drive it there are few routes that have this issue. This is the most mentioned if there were so many people driving this route, a charging station would have been built by now perhaps someone will to end this route,s constant mention to scare people
Very welcome
The battery industry is not there yet. Meaning, consumers can't go to a part store and get a new battery. We need affordable replacement batteries that anyone can get off the shelf. I believe it will happen. I own a Tesla Model 3 and love it.
I'm also wondering how much further improvement there will be in terms of lifecycle and perhaps also, the capacity to repair existing ones.
Everyone needs to watch the Kim Java video "Uber Driver's 120,000 mile Tesla Experiment". (If you don't know her, she is a big Tesla fan.) Like most of us, the Uber driver expected the battery to degrade slowly after the warrantee ran out. Instead, it degraded quickly, and he now faced a huge bill to replace the battery. His business depends on the car so I assume he ended up paying it, but it was an unexpected expense and he wasn't happy. So temper your expectations. A simple rule of thumb is to divide the battery replacement cost by the warrantee miles and add that to your fuel bill.
While that is probably the best way to look at it, the Tesla fanboys will never acknowledge this as a reality because it brings EV ownership way more inline with ICE. Their running costs superiority and Tesla stock values suffer, thus hurting their egos and pocketbook. EV's are the way to go, but will take time to fully displace ICE vehicles for the masses.
Am not interested in how many miles they can do in a short amount of time.
I'm interested in how these batteries will be in 15 years time.
There are plenty of low mileage old ICE that are almost as good as new.
Only time will tell if the same can be said about EV's
The fear of battery replacement cost is the primary reason I hear from people who say they would not buy any EV. Even though I believe it's very unlikely an EV owner would need to replace their battery before 200,000 miles, many people are unwilling to accept ANY risk. The repair/replacement cost is just too high in their opinion. Tesla should consider offering a battery extended warranty or replacement insurance for those who fear an unexpected battery replacement cost. Also, any update on the Tesla couple (Johnny Bacigalupo and Rob Hussey) you reported earlier who say their Tesla Model Y battery failed due to water ingress after driving their car in heavy rain? They say Tesla will not replace the battery under warranty and have said the cost to repair/replace will cost £17,500, which is more than 21,000 $US at today’s exchange rate. It's stories like this that continue to stoke fears of unexpected battery replacement cost.
I am based in the UK. It rains often in the UK. Consumer protection laws (excluding businesses) would ensure there was no cost, for manufacturing defects or not being of merchantable quality (i.e. can't cope with rain). Otherwise I would have thought they would have insurance. We are being misled. Wait for the legal action if any.
@@robertwhite3503 Of course we are being misled. They obviously drove it in a flood and made up a story to get a free battery.
It is good that research has shown that 200k miles with a loose of only 20 percent is great
Small suppliers of the thousands of ice parts are going to go out of business.
If they make special piston rings for example engine manufacturers at OEM's will be screwed.
I'm basing this opinion on what I believe, which is that owners of businesses making rare or niche parts will not give notice of going bust.
If they did, they'd go bust faster as OEM tries to remove the work they do have.
A disincentive for honesty or openness.
Just a thought.
I have a 2013 BMW i3, and the battery still gave me 80miles summer and 50miles in the winter now.
My 2000 Acura TL needed a $5K transmission rebuild at 170,000 kms. My 2009 Infiniti G37X suffered an internal engine gasket failure at 105,000 kms; $10K. ICE vehicles can be very expensive. My next car will be a 2024 Model 3.
Thank you Sam for this useful information. I have had my electric car for three years now and always charge it at home with 11 kW/h, 100% if I have to drive far, otherwise usually 80%. I have no idea if the battery capacity has decreased. Anyway, I understand from your video that it won't be too bad. I plan to continue driving the same car for years to come.
I have a 2015 85D with 275,000km only 5% degradation. Battery is in great shape.
There isn't enough historical data to make any claims on how long these batteries will last. Seeing that they keep improving technology every minute, we will never know. What's the average length of Tesla ownership? I doubt it's kept past battery warranty .
My 2012 Nissan Leaf is already 11 years old with 8 bars 34k kms and 65% SOH, I have seen my car being sold with 250k kms to 300k kms still with 8 bars
I had a CRZ hybrid that was old an had no issues. When ppl start talking about powering the grid though the charge cycles start to worry me.
Tesla's battery pack is built to last +500,000.00 miles right now and drivetrain to 1 Million miles - but Tesloop in California has many Teslas with +700k miles on them with original battery pack.
I looked at replacing the battery on a 2012 Chevy Volt. My daughter had taken my old Volt to LA. Her range appeared to be degrading (although I think that was more a function of frequent highway driving showing a decreased expected range than any actual battery degradation). The cost quote I got was $9k in the summer of 2023 for a new battery. That cost was net of any salvage value for the battery itself. The car itself was worth about the same number on the resale market. She has since left LA and is still driving the car as-is. I just did a quick google search and was seeing used Tesla batteries for around $6k on EBay with 50k on them. So better, but that would not include any labor or auxiliary parts for the replacement. I did not find any battery repair services available in LA for the Volt. If can't find it in LA, where are you going to find it in the US currently? Now some of this will vary by manufacturer and I largely agree with a lot of the things the OP has said, but I don't see the in-the-weed evidence that the picture is quite as rosy as being painted, at least not yet. At least with the 2012 Volt, we have a 12-year-old battery with 100k on it that is operating at about 75% of original charge and is not really economical to replace. At least with a Tesla Model 3, it looks like replacement costs are probably pretty similar. I don't know if consumers on the ground are seeing a 90% reduction in battery prices as it pertains to replacement batteries. I don't know if consumers on the ground are benefitting from the residual value of the battery. I know things will get better. I just don't know where we truly are on the ground in the US today.
You really can't compare a 12year old Chevy volt with today's LFP tesla's. EV tech is light years ahead today
@@larryc1616 I didn't, if you read the post carefully. For the sake of productive argument though, show me a battery repair facility in the US. Tell me how much repair for a 2018 Tesla Model 3 would cost. Tell me how much a replacement LFP Tesla battery costs. If you want to have an apples-to-apples discussion, bring some facts to the party.
There is a company called Tesloop that ran a Tesla 600,000 miles and then they got a free replacement because they were only able to charge to 75% capacity (80% is the cut off). Obviously this was an older chemistry, the Tesla Panasonic batteries produced in California, that made it 600,000 miles. I have no idea who Chevy bought their Volt batteries from, but they "moved up" to exploding batteries by LG afterwords. With Tesla, you do everything with Tesla so that's why there aren't independent battery repair services for your shit box.
"hey wheres all the independent battery repair facilities in LA to fix my limited run Chevy shit box cancelled car that was produced for 4 years max" I dunno contact Jehu Garcia. Most mechanics have never taken a battery pack apart and tested the batteries, that's an electronics job. By the way there are tonnes of guides on TH-cam of how to do it yourself.
Viking, the exception may be Mercedes Benz. I have been negotiating on an EQS450 4MATIC, felt the urge to research the cost of a new battery. I was quoted over $70k! That did not include the $5k core charge here in the US.
Looks like they just give you a new car?
Sam you cover almost all EV stories. India's Tata is selling electric cars in Australia for a price tag of $17 k to $28K and the range about 465 Kms, not bad I'd have thought. Cheaper than an ICE car. Just wanted to bring it your attention as people are worried about affordability. They are great cars and well built.
If you’ve ever been to a factory in India you would shit yourself. No health & safety, child labour, long working hours, poor quality control, little pay. I would never buy an Indian or Chinese car.
@@vulgarvolga7335i bet you never visited tatas factory. They introduced health and safety regulations 150 years ago. You just pulled that out thin air
@@hj2711 I've been to a factory there that processed materials we supplied. It was plain bloody dangerous. I don't know anything about the Tata factory operation itself except their tractors and 4x4's fall apart. We trialled 6 of them in 2014 alongside the Hilux fleet in rough conditions and they disassembled themselves.
@@vulgarvolga7335 hilux is made by toyota not tata. Tata doesn’t even make the tractor. Their main business is in consumer cars and commercial trucks. Some of them are rated 5 star in ncap ratings.
@@hj2711 You've misunderstood my post so let me explain. The company I was contracted to had a fleet of 26 Toyota Hilux twin- cabs engaged in its mining operations in outback Australia. Tata approached the company with an offer to provide six new Tata 4x4 diesel twin cab "utes" for the price of 4 new HiLux's as a trial, hoping to get ongoing business in the future. So the deal was done and the six Tata's arrived and had the standard "mining kits" fitted. Hazard lights, reversing beepers, bull bars, sump bash plates, second spare wheel, off road tyres, etc, etc. Within 12 months only 2 were still running. There were problems with cracked chassis, broken tray mounts, broken engine mounts, broken spring centre bolts, snapped drive-shaft flanges, transfer case failures, radiator mounts breaking, engine oil pump scavenging issues on steep slopes, miltiple electrical issues, and the list just goes on an on. They were always in the workshops. Needless to say, the company scrapped them and continued with the commercial vehicle rotation arrangement they had with Toyota. And as for tractors, Tata definitely produced a small tractor some years back, about the same size as the legendary Massey Ferguson 165 with the Perkins diesel. They copied it under license, just like India did with the British Morris Oxford then renamed it the Ambassador. If you've been to India you would have ridden around the streets and through the markets in an Ambassador taxi. Lovely old cars.
FYI Rav4 EV from Y2K era averaged about 17 years lifespan. This was Nickel Metal Hydride with no thermal management. I highly doubt actively cooled and heated Lithium Ion can be worse.
Even if statistically the batteries last ‘for ever’, the issue is the cost of repair when things happen. Or is it even possible to repair.
So it is a low risk, high impact situation. ICEs are in general higher risk but lower impact.
Cheers mate
I have owned three different types of cars, and all of them have surpassed 300,000 miles with minimal issues. There is a person on TH-cam whose car requires a new battery after only two years. While I am interested in electric cars, I believe they still need a few more years of development before I switch from my diesel car.
I think that's a fair point. Friends used to say to me, wait a bit longer, maybe next year, for the next development in EVs, before you go for it. I asked what I was waiting for, and they said, nothing in particular because the improvement is incremental, but it's significant. Then my car was written off at the age of 14.
I tend to keep cars a long time, so I thought, might as well go for it, now's as good a time as any. I decided, no regrets, the MG4 is the car for me right now, and whatever happens in the future, it wasn't available when it was my time to change.
But if you aren't forced to change, wait till you feel it's the right time for you. I have a friend who is ideally suited to an EV and wants one, but she can't charge at home and there is at the moment no obvious provision for convenient type 2 charging near her home. I've been advising her to keep her current car and wait to see what develops.
It's a far better attitude than screaming "I'll never have an EV because [reason that will probably be nonexistent in three years]" and running all over the net telling everyone who will listen that the cars are rubbish.
1500 moving parts for ICE - 4 moving parts for EV. The servicing costs and reliability alone convinced me to change.
It would be nice to be able to buy better battery's with more range when necessary or desired.
Thanks
Welcome
Especially people drive the vehicle to work abd home. And sleep 10 hrs a night. The Ev can run the alternator to charge the battery or to run electric generator to charge the battery. Even the solar panel to charge the battery. We need to work on those issues. The dollars will play the important role for saving and investment because the demand. We can do more print monies because of the saving the spend
ICE cars and EVs age differently. ICE ages on wear and tears (mileage), EV batteries age on calendar aging and charging cycles, no wear and tears. So the ideal use case for EVs is high mileage use, especially in city driving, they beat ICE cars by far. But if you are low mileage user (less than 10kkm per year), or, your battery will still degrade with time anyway, you are not getting your money worth. If you are a grandma only driving to church every Sunday, and only use 2000km per year, then you better off with ICE car, because then it will probably last 30+ years, many military vehicles are 50 years old because they are only occassionally used for excercise, very low mileage, but regularly moved around. The real problem with modern EVs is all the high tech gadgets that breakdown and require high repair cost. You will face thousands of $$$ repair bills for infotainment, electronics, control modules etc. way before you need to replace batteries.
Totally agreed - also, low mileage users of ice motor cars are not high polluters!
There are so many other factors affecting battery life it's mind boggling.....far more than just how many kms you drive. These are problems an ICE driver doesn't even have to think about.
@paul you don't need to worry about an EV because you have a huge battery warranty.
@@AORD72 I don't have an EV period...so you're right...I don't have to worry.
You make an interesting point though....because I don't have a fuel tank warranty on my ICE vehicle...why do you think that is? 🙂
@@Paul-vm9sz Literally, every other person I talk to about extending EV batteries, say as long as you keep it plugged in, it will be fine. That could not be further from the truth. The quickest way to degrade your battery is to keeping it topped up at all times.
A CSIRO report (Australia) found that in 2021 only 10% of lithium-ion battery waste was recycled that year. The situation in Australia has hardly improved since. Expired EV batteries are being stored in warehouses or outside in the elements and eventually end up in land fill. My friends with Tesla’s were visibly uncomfortable when I raised this subject with them so I’ve dropped it. A car is not worth losing good friends over.
That's a good point and you probably need to work on it more. But recycling is up from 2% in 2018 to 10% today. So I'd expect you'll be at 50% by 2030.
It's simply not economical when there are only 3,500 tons per year of battery waste. By 2036, you are expected to have 180,000 tons and you'll probably have very high recycling rates then.
Unlike recycling plastics, the downstream of lithium batteries is highly profitable.
While current lead battery acid is 99% recycled, in 2014 with only 98% recycling lead batteries were producing 70,000 tons of waste per "A REVIEW OF DATA ON LEAD-ACID BATTERIES
ENTERING AUSTRALIA AND ARISING AS WASTE ", page 4. Which means you still have about 35,000 tons of lead battery waste per year now compared to 3,500 tons of lithium battery waste.
However- you need the right laws passed *now* before the solar panel and lithium battery industries get too much political power.
And now you have the full information so you can give your friends with EV's some comfort with more positive, less one-sided information.
@@macmcleod1188 You make good points and companies will eventually certainly invest in recycling these batteries. But achieving 50% recycling of lithium ion batteries by 2036 will mean that 50% are still being stored with leakage risks or going to landfill. Another little hitch is that lithium can only profitability be recycled once. A battery with recycled lithium will lose about 4% to 5% of it's capability compared to a new battery. A second round of recycling is not efficient so you are then back at the start with a disposal problem. I think electric cars are a great idea but powering them with batteries weighing between 350 to 500kg full of toxic materials is a poor idea. I don't know what the answer is but there must be a better way.
Please post your sources.
10k per tonne of recycled lithium black mass. Must cost close to that amount to process as no one seems to be doing it. According to UniMelb Research only 10% of used lithium based batteries are recycled in Aus. This needs to change.
The savings vs gas car are far more than you quoted. Its more like 2k in savings after 5 years. Alot of people paying $250 per month in gas. Thats 15k cheaper to own in 5 years for an EV, plus almost no maintenance, not even break pads.
EV's are just like ICE cars. They're no different. If you abuse a battery, you'll kill it, prematurely. This is well documented. If you abuse and ICE vehicle's engine, you'll kill it, prematurely. This is also well documented. The limitations of both are well known. You can quote all of the "data" that you like. "2% here, this data says... 100k miles, fuel, blah, blah blah...." on it goes.
The reality is, if you don't look after something, you'll kill it. The RC car community, the yachting community, the ham radio community and the E Bike community all know full and well the limitations and advantages of lithium ion battery chemistries. Don't sugar coat the negatives, they're real, and largely avoidable. Educate.
Thank you for such a well presented clarification of fact.
How would you know?
Exactly how much power do you need to charge at home , I'm off grid on solar but getting to the point where I could possibly charge a phev or ev if I can get something old enough at the right price ,, as it is when my new inverter arrives I will be able to use my welder,,
Keep dreaming dude my 5000 KWH system can barely keep up with my beer fridge and electric golf cart
I'm hoping that the face EV manufacturers will most likely be using blade-type battery packs by 2030 means higher storage density per kilogram and likely way longer battery service life. Like may be more like 15 years.
Can structural batteries be repaired?
I think not
Sam, you should do some TH-cam shorts. One for each of the common myths about BEVs referencing the scientific research to support it. It would be a really useful resource to shut up that uncle that half read a headline from a legacy newspaper and believes it as fact! Only if you’re not busy though mate, pumping out 5 videos per day. 😅
My mates 2017 Tesla 100k miles . Batter has lost 20 percent
CSIRO report also reported that 90 percent of lithium batteries are going to landfil
My 2013 Prius battery only lasted 10 years, but it was NMHI, a battery technology invented in the late 80’s. Definitely not the latest and greatest.
Auto batteries are built to a higher standard than phone batteries. The carbon particles are heated to very high temperatures to repair cracks and hence don't degrade as much.
The actual problem with ev batteries, apart from the massive weight and complexity, is the slightest dent means they are write-off.
Energy storage in an ice car..100 dollar plastic tank..in an EV 20K of batteries, wiring, disconnectors, cooling pipes and battery management.
i know a guy who ran over a huge deer in his model Y. He only damaged one of the battery coolant lines which took $300 to fix. Battery itself was fine.
My 2021 Audi e-tron with 56,000 miles lost a lot of range suddenly November 2023. A 100% charge range of only 171 miles. An 80% charge range of 156 miles. This never went back up either. The temperature never went below 50° outside. I always charge at 80% unless I'm taking a trip And I do this every night at home. I rarely use a fast charger unless I'm taking a trip and need to get home. I spoke to Audi about this and they said the battery health was fine, battery degradation was normal and that there were no error codes so the battery was in good health. This is ridiculous to me. Not to mention that a $75,000 vehicle is now only worth $32,000 for trade in value. And now the e-tron has a battery recall due to a fire risk. Before the battery issues, the car was one of my favorites. And I was all on board the electric vehicle evolution. Not so much now.
Question: A bit off topic. As Tesla's are now being made with aluminum alloy castings - are they less prone to rust? Living in Maine - salt on the roads is a major problem.
Rust is typically used to describe iron oxide, aluminum will corrode and oxidize, but with thick castings I doubt this will be a problem.
Aluminum does not rust. The rest of the car will though. I live in New England also...I drive a $2000 shitbox from Dec to March.
@@OtisFlint shitbox is no way to talk about your own wife
Tecent study says all batteries degrade if they are fast charged....., study said that after 5 / 6 years fast charging and 100% charging instead of 80%, the batteries are over and out.....also for Tesla....
@5:55 Givie lose of battery capacity is ridicolus like a medium pay.... Lose shoud by given by mileage or kind and count of recharges, also shoudl be sepeated by climatic region
Afternoon mate
Current batteries last not enough , I hope that within 5-6 years newest LMFP or any solid state batteries will last double before degradation , I mean 100k km and degradation below 3%
then why did I have to get my battery replaced under warranty on my Nisan leaf at 47 thousand? and I know a guy who exceeded 100 thousand on his model 3 and had to pay out of pocket over 9 thousand for a new battery
Because you bought the worst EV ever made, which has no thermal management.
@@OtisFlint so what about the model 3 guy who had his battery replaced with thermal management
We always talk of how we charge. But what about how we discharge? Example - TMY LR charges up to 250 kH, but discharges up to 378 kW. If you push it a lot? What do you think, Sam?
Heat is what kills the batteries. Pushing the car will heat the batteries up.
Not good either. But you can discharge it at such a high rate for a few seconds only, so it's not that big of a deal.
@@Tschacki_Quacki 200kph high speed cruise will do a lot of stress to the batteries.
My gas tank is empty in less than 2 hours.
Spittin’ facts and strangely inspirational, love your work, Sam 😊
The cost, likelihood and time frame of replacing an EV battery is not much different from a combustion engine requiring a completely new engine.
And or transmission ..
Everyone leaves out these facts. 😂😂😂
I have a friend who had a very high end expensive bmw .. they did not have replacements for the exhaust system anywhere on earth and had to manufacture them specifically for him . At a cost of over 25k including shipping ...
Crazy .
Have you thought of doing collab debate with anti EV youtuber John Cadogan?
It'd be really interesting to positively debate the way ahead.
The vid would probably go viral!
John’s actually owned an EV for a year unlike the electric Viking
Look up the word "cynic" in the dictionary and you'll find a picture of Mr Cadogan.
. I have gotten very good at saying "however" what's an Australian accent.
Well I am not a V8 forver type.
But I still dont trust a battery to last the 20 years minimum I need it too. So Ill wait several decades until there are real competive options on the market. I cant even afford a new one and dont trust a used one so it actually doesn't even matter in the end what my stance is.
It really depends on mileage. If you have 50,000 KM mileage per year, 5 years of battery life is pushing it too far. If you stated that EV batteries could last up to 250,000 miles, why is Tesla Model 3 EV batteries warranty covers only100,000 miles? If they are really have the best batteries on what you are stating, maybe a 10 year/200,000 mileage warranty will be fair for the buyer.
We should get a global "EV +500k miles Club" ?
Li-Ion batteries lose capacity by the number of cycles and age. I have a Power Wall that is three years old and has already lost over 25% of its capacity. I have never cycled it more than 30% in a day and usually only 10%.
Fuel possibly £2.00 a litre by xmas😮
So let me get this straight. If I need to replace an EV battery in a car, the price is very low because the prices have dropped by 90% since 2010. At the same time, the scrapped battery "black mass" is worth US $10,000/ton. This doesn't make sense. That's like saying something is simultaneously as light as a feather, but heavy as an anchor.
Thx for info I learnt a lot from this vid.
Glad it was helpful!
As we see more EV's using structural battery packs (such as Tesla 4680 cell packs), it may be more difficult to replace the battery pack in a car, and probably impossible (or uneconomical) to repair. Nevertheless, it's unlikely any of that will ever be necessary with modern battery management systems.
Your faith in technology is unreal
Well I have a Toyota hybrid Camry car where recently I had to change the battery cost me 5K.
Regarding batteries loosing their rated effectiveness, let's not discount weather's impact on battery performance. I live in the northwest of the US and experience tolerably warm summers and very snowy winters. The car displays a max of 292 miles in the summer and 207 in the coldest part of the winter. Because of this, you could say that there should be no absolute expected charge capacity because of weather conditions. At a year of ownership, I am at roughly 22K. How will I actually know the battery is compromised once I get to 120K miles if the weather impacts battery efficiency to begin with?
Its not just Tesla who"s at advantage Matt. Volkswagen. They bought quantumscape. Microsoft is also involved. People not seeing it. They see only Tesla when it comes to Battery.
If it were true that you will get 20 years from a battery, then why don't the manufacturers warranty the battery for 20 years?
Over time there will be thousands of junked cars with good batteries. Going to be a market for swapping them. So who knows how long you can keep these cars going.
You would not want to as its an expensive proposition. You might have to though if you have a crash or a bender. Drilling oil, if not used for cars, will most likely be used for all the other things we take for granted that make life on earth better. Much, much better.
This is certainly comforting news, all right. And if it's really true that the batteries are so good that they can be glued into a non-replaceable, non-repairable component of the car itself, shouldn't the manufacturers be willing *TO GUARANTEE* that they will? The present 8yr/100Kmile warranty doesn't convey that confidence very well...
The warranty nowadays also usually relates to a minimum degradation at "x" years. My Atto 3 has 8 years at +70% SOH (state of health).
I had an EV and I can say that you’re full of it. Battery degradation year after year, forget long trips because you can’t find a place to charge unless you go miles out of your way and when you get there they’re either busy or broken then you’re screwed. Then if it’s cold out, range is greatly diminished. If you need service you can’t take it to your favorite mechanic because they can’t fix it. So you are forced to take it to the dealer. Once at the dealer be prepared to leave it 2 or 3 weeks because they don’t have the parts and only one or two technicians that work on EVs. Who’s paying you to push this crap?
I've owned several. Battery degradation most certainly is a thing but if you own an EV you are more than aware of this and the batteries rarely just die without a reason. Look at the failure rates, it's actually very impressive how few batteries need replacement even after 200,000 miles.
You obviously didn't own a Tesla because in 5 years I have only seen 2 broken chargers and both times I just moved to the next spot. Also, the charging network has expanded greatly in the last few years. If you were charging on a CCS network I understand your frustration but there are many more Tesla Superchargers and soon they will be open to everyone.
As far as needing a mechanic, I've had a few things go wrong over the years but most of the time Tesla comes to you to fix it. The only times I had to take it in, was the lower control arm replacement, they had it a few days, and a Sentry mode issue which they had for a day. They came to my house to replace the window driver buttons and a charging port door. They also rotate your tires for 50 bucks if your lazy like me and don't want to spend time in a tire shop that will do it for free. There are now mechanics that work on EV's. The shop that works on my diesel trucks also works on EV's now and there's two other shops in town that do as well.
I'm sorry for you frustration but things are improving at a rapid pace. I still need diesel vehicles for work because there's no real viable option for larger trucks but my fun car will always be an EV. I won't ever go back.
The reason we choose EV. Because we know the EV it is able to do the charging in its own when the electric in the battery not use for driving. We will use the left over battery to run the generator to charge the battery.
All I can say is that every rechargeable battery item I’ve ever owned was either thrown away or I paid to replace the battery before the item was broken or out of date.
Hand tools, laptops, phones, e-cigs, tablets, headphones, speakers, cameras. I could even go back to items with NiCads from 30 or 40 years ago with the same “replace the battery or chuck it away” scenario.
I have no idea how many lithium batteries I’ve replaced but it’s a considerable amount and none of them have been cheap and equally all of them have more or less given up eventually, lasting several years at best - not 10 years or 20 years - nowhere near.
I’m sure modern technology is perhaps a bit better but lithium cells (those used in tools are much the same as those in EV’s) have around 1 - 2 thousand charges before a noticeable reduction in capacity. We’ve all had phones which suffer this within their lifespan.
I think the real world will give us a very different answer than the one in this video.
BMS
Fully agree.
There are some exceptions, e.g. the 10 year old batteries for my DSLR are still usable.
But normally they last around 2 to 5 years, with some failing earlier.
I'd assume if you go for high reliability and put some engineering effort into it, you can get 10 years out of them. Time will tell. Best to wait and see the numbers if you don't have money to burn to find out.
@@svr5423what I didn’t mention is that I actually attempt to make batteries last. Using slow charging where possible, never storing them at full or low charge, bringing them in from my garage in the winter etc. Batteries simply don’t last. I’d be surprised if all of a sudden they do.
@@Jacob-yb6bv I'd also be surprised. For me, they are simply consumables.
And not one of the items you list have a true thermal management system in them that extends battery life.
Your battery will not last long if you supercharge it much. A fellow here on Ytube - who does Uber full time replaced his Camry with a Tesla; He supercharged twice a day and it only lasted 110,000 miles. Another fellow TH-cam drove his Model S 1 million miles but required 4 battery packs to reach this range - the original; one provided by Tesla and 2 more he had to buy out of pocket. The second factor is miles - if you put few miles on it it may last 5 or 10 years but if you put on a lot it won't.
10yr nissan leaf - all be it 25% range loss - still going strong oh and i pull twice the power of what it was designed for. That tech is 10 years ! Uncooled cells , thats a good effort. Zero servicing - only tyres
wierd that car batterys hold up when my laptop and mobile phone dont. And now people say the batteries are too hot in the phone and laptop.. No they are not. If they would, I would burn myself. I would say that the car batterys has this buffer that the manufactors take of, so the battery is in fact bigger than what they claim. My laptop after 3 years is down to 66%. It only uses around 7watt at max so it hardly gets warm .
Laptop batteries aren't liquid cooled and aren't designed to be long term machines.
@@samuelwilliams7331 well i would say the battery is around 45-50 degrees when charging. Is that cobsidered too hot?
@@AndrewTSq If you going into service controls of a Tesla you can see the temps the batteries get to and hear the heat pumps kick on. The charging rate declines if car can't keep the batteries at an optimal temperature. 45 - 50 degrees Celsius would be consider good and not to hot.
because laptop and mobile phones frequently get charged to 100% since they are small capacity. EVs are not charged to 100% on daily basis.
@@Fear.of.the.Dark.My devices stop charging at 85%. Its a feature on most new devices you can enable. Also I heard tesla talk about batteries, and the last 15% takes as long time as the first 85% cause when the battery is empty its easy for electrons to find a "parking spot" (as they called it) while when we reach around 85%, it gets harder and harder to find a parking spot, which is why it takes a lot more time.