Ulu boz kuzenim Almanya'da knk benim kuzen burda olanlardan haberi yok geçen konuştuk öylebi aydinlattim ki gelmekten vaz geçti 3 yıldır dönecem falan diyordu adama kuzen burda kiralar en düşük 3k ekmek 4tl. Diğer gıdalar uçtu meyve zebze şu fiyat diyince. Bana bağırarak lan yoksa asgari 15 20bin mi oldu diyo abi adama 5.5k asgari dedim çıldırdı valla :)
Kendi ülkemin ekonomisini yabancı kanaldan izliyorum. Ve siz bizim hükümetimiz den daha doğru haber yapıyorsunuz . (Burada hayat pahalı ama hala nefes alabiliyoruz)
Özetle finansa dayalı ekonominin geçici düzelme sağladığını bunun yerine Kore, Japonya gibi üretime dayalı ekonomiye geçilmesi gerektiğini ifade etmiş. Yani katma değeri yurt içi kaynaklar ile üretmeden, patent, ticari marka vb artırmadan bu işler zor. Bunun için özellikle büyük şirketlerin yatırımlarının kayda değer bölümünü Arge tarafında harcaması gerekiyor. Yoksa başımıza A, B, C ne partisini getirirsek getirelim çözüm olmaz, olamaz.
aralarından bu anlayışa sahip bir tek rte var. bu videoda da anlatıldığı gibi hükümet mücadele ediyor, herkese, her engele, her türlü iç/dış baskıya maruz kalmasına rağmen. Bari kendi halkı destek olsa.. ama yok, gaza gelen muhalif oluyor :)
Hay ağzına sağlık. Faizi artırınca kalıcı olarak çözüm olacağını sanıyor andavallar sırf Erdoğan düşmanlığından körü körüne. Şuanki ekonomik model kısa vadede sıkıntılı günler geçireceğimizi gösterse de ileride çok çok rahat bir gelecek bekliyor yeter ki sabır.
@@ismailsoluk Ne mafyası kardeş nerde yaşıyosun ya? Hiçbir mafya dünyanın neresinde olursa olsun devletten büyük değildir. Bizde en başta olması gereken devlet kavramı yok her yeni gelen hükümet devletin ta kendisi oluyor. Önce ortada bir devlet olacak! Bak mesela Amerika parlamentosuna heriflerde senato var devlet sabit. Mesela son dönemde gelen Trump, Bidon gibi kişiler bir iş yerinde işletmeci gibiler ama patron değiller yeri geldiğinde yargılanabiliyorlar. Bizde paşamızın üstü yok. Bugün isterse ülkeyi de satar isterse savaşa sokup yok da eder.
@@ismailsoluk Bu sebeple; mafya da çöker gücü yeten de gelir çöker yani. Bizim önce insanımızı değiştirmemiz gerekiyor ben araplardan sonra böyle yobaz cahil toplum görmedim. Ne enteresandır ki bizim insanımız kendi kazdığı çukura düşüyor sürekli ama beyin mi yok nedir akıllanmıyorlar düştükleri yerde yine kazmaya devam ediyorlar.
Don't sweat it, im a Turk in America, things have gotten severely expensive aswell, if you think America is sunshines and rainbows you are not correct. Our purchasing power eroded alot, and I think the reason people come to Turkiye is for the power of the currency they work for in a different country.
The problem i see is Turkey has always been too dependent to other countries. The government generally preferred gaining money on taxes of imported goods. Even now the rate and range of taxes has increased in Turkey.
Every country is always dependent to others. We're not as lucky as EU countries which have common trade priviliges or countries like have oil and gas. Our only hope is foreign investment. But the country that invest us, pull out all of their investments because of Turkeys political actions. Thanks USA!
I have been living in Turkey for 23 years.93% of people live in cities. Farmers are not supported. Since gasoline is expensive and fertilizer is expensive, people do not want to do it at a loss. Since there is no production, or rather, it is not enough for the population of the country, many products are imported. Therefore, foreign trade deficit occurs every year. Besides, the problems between covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine made the economy worse, but there was a serious management problem before.
very nice explanation. I live in turkey. As always, it is the people who are badly affected.the rich got richerthe poor became more and more poor. missing part in video ; refugees 10 million refugees arrived in the country.Most of them are poor Syrians. and the government spent a lot of money on the war in syria
I’m not an economist but i want to say this. I’m a Turkish citizen and our government increased the tax rates drastically to compensate their problems. In Turkey whatever you buy, it maybe bread, cheese, beer, tv, phone, car… The tax doubles the amount. If i want to buy a car, i simply have to buy a car for my government. And the worse thing is, government is still using some of that tax money for it’s own election propaganda which takes place in summer of 2023.
Bah bah allah aşkına bah 😂😂 bu ne sahtekârca bir iftiradır. Özellikle ıngilizce yazmış. Bizim meclisimizde terörist bile var. O kadar laik ve çağdaş bir ülkeyiz ki meclise kadar terörist sokup dokunmuyoruz özgürüz biz. Özgür ve terörist hdp de seçim için hazineden para alıyor onu neden yazmıyorsun.
Haha "If i want to buy a car, i simply have to buy a car for my government." I wish that was true. You don't buy *A* car you buy SEVERAL. It is truly fucked.
Man this channel is so good. I've been trying to stay informed about the lira and this current crisis for a while, but every news outlet was only repeating the same story over and over again about Erdogan and interest rates, which as M&M said isn't necessarily wrong, but it always felt unfinished as an answer. I'm glad outlets like this exist that aren't afraid to make an actually well-researched and in-depth look into a thing like this because unfortunately a lot of western publications are not great at tackling many issues coming from outside of western Europe or the US.
Yep, I think one thing is seeing it through the lens of the countries they live in. But these emerging economies can't operate the same way, nor can they grow the same way we did. It's also the case that they need to carve out a different niche. Only so many financial services companies and car manufacturers can exist.
@@taiefmiah well said. I'm of the mind that most countries need to attempt to get some food and energy security first before they build an economy on top of that. It's frightening how dependent the whole continent of Europe is on outside energy...
However, if messing with the monetary policy with no further understanding of it was not the case in Turkey, there would be 0 viewers for this video. Much of the opinions raised in this video are indeed accurate. Still, you may go deep dive into the period BEFORE the huge misconception materialized in 2018. Almost all the arguments in this video would be vanished such as exchange rate, inflation, dollarization, etc. A clear comparison among the emerging economies before 2018 would give the clearest view.
I second that. I follow a lot of different TH-cam channels to keep myself informed about this topic and that one, and they're hard to compare. But I'm tempted to say that, for me, this channel may actually be #1. Real gold mine 👍
Thanks for this non-bias and non-political analysis of the situation there. Most of the the analysis that you hear on the big news channels simply put the blame on not raising interest rates, and fail to address the structural problems of the economy in total.
In one part of the video, a part about the factory and tourism caught my attention. When we look at it, Turkey is quite developed in terms of hazelnut production, but most of these factories do not belong to the Turks as before. Since our factories, which meet Turkey's exports, are mostly sold to "Arab unions", we can only get commission from this situation. As for tourism, we had a tourism spot called Uzungöl in Trabzon, but all the texts on the signs were translated into Arabic. In short, Turkey has started to translate the materials that will contribute to the economy into other unions and other languages. For example, while Nutella hazelnut was exported by the Turks, it started to be exported by the French and Arab troops (example) and a part of the income here began to go to the state instead of all. In terms of interest, the state struggles for the religion of Islam. Since interest is a haram thing in Islam, Erdogan was disturbed by this situation and started to lower the interest rate, but at the same time he continues to use taxes on alcohol products, which are a sin in Islam. While he lowers the interest rate because it is haram, he gives the money he earns from alcohol products, which he calls a sin, to the state elders as a salary. In short, the money he receives is also a sin, but he does not say anything to it. What they say conflicts with each other.
this is wrong he doesnt fight interest rates only because Islam but high interest rates detrimental for healty producer country and the thing Turkey wants became producer ,exporter.there are lot of countries tries lower interest rates much as posible that lot of them not Islamıc countries.
As you can see hear It's not about Islam. He uses name of Islam for some issues and it's work. People think that he does everything for Islam ( or they want to think that way) So don't use the name of Islam for his actions
@@g.wizsensei760 Well recently many countries are increasing interest rates to combat inflation and Erdogan is doing the exact opposite. I shouldn't be assuming things but it seems like he is doing all of this for Islam. The last thing he needs is for ridiculously high inflation in Turkey and a plummeting Lira as people borrow more and more money. Raising interest rates can at least help mitigate the effects and help with the transition.
The 70% is the official inflation, and is calculated in increasingly dubious ways. Neither the public nor economists seem to believe in it. The real inflation could be as high as double that.
You left something out but it's understandable as it might be hard to know as a foreigner. The reason lira was kinda stable from november until recently (it rose a lot 2 days ago) is not because the dollar fixed interest rate but because the central bank is still selling it's dollar reserves. 2 billion a month to combat the selling pressure of lira.
None of that blurb you talk is making any sense. *Bottom-line:* The Turkish economy makes it *easier for low-currency African states to invest in low-currency Turkish services and goods-development into Africa, instead of investing in top-heavy Euro-goods and services.* BRICS affiliated states will not bother with Euro-centric paradigms, and will keep their raw because *it is dunce to sell and buy back* instead of develop local joint-venture and then split even. Sorry, but this vid is only a cheap EU-fiscal propaganda video *from one of the poorer places in the EU that has low-to-no resources to propagate an image...or at least a logical one.* And I think the train for that has long left the platform. There was too much *indulgence in racism* and it backfired after the Ukraine war against the Neo-Nazi virus that came out of Germany!
basically a personalized bretton-woods :) you should tell this story to all Italians that think that having currency ownership means having no problems.... :)
@@mustafaakdag69 altın ve gümüş ile piyasayı kontrol etmek , hiç bir ülkeye bağlı kalmadan ekonominin sürekliliğini sağlar. Faiz zengini daha zengin fakiri daha fakir hale getiriyor . En mantıklı çözüm bahsettiğimiz çözüm kardeşim.
Finally, an objective analysis that sheds the light on the reasons behind the crises. Literally all the resources I came across blame the economic crises on the government for not raising interest rates even more. As if raising interest rates (which is already very high) is the magical solution to all problems. Thank you for providing such informative content. I'm already a subscriber to the channel, but I just activated the bell icon 😎.
"interest rates (which is already very high)" The current (nominal) policy rate is 14% while inflation is something like 70%. That means that in real terms the policy rate is -56% (!) which is incredibly low and not high by any reasonable measure.
@@seneca983 Yeah interests rates are not high because our president don't like interest. He even tried to lower it the dolar/tl raised from 8 to 18 in a few weeks. Inflation got worse. People losing faith in lira started to buy more dolar and euro increasing the dolarisation level. Then he made a sudden decision in the middle of night that he will pay for the exchange rate difference so people wont be able sell their dolar to salvage their money but his lackeys could make more money out of it. Next morning dolar crushed to the 12. Now it is 15 seriously they are idiots. Everyone could see this was a risky and stupid idea but he still did it.
Great video, as always! As a microeconomist, it's nice to have a reliable and condensed update from the macro people, from time to time. I wish more academic economists could start their own TH-cam channel.
There is a missing part. It's a matter of justice. If there is no justice in a country, there is no economy. I'm writing this in English so that I don't get jailed. I like the video.
you are right about there is no justice because you are lying and there is no punishment for you. there is no one can go jail if they write what you said in Turkish you can even write that personal media of President Erdogan.
The problem is we in Türkiye buy everything from USA and EU, our phones and laptops and TV are all abroad brands. They are manufactured in Turkey but all that currency goes to foreign country exhanged, so Lira loses it values. I am happy to see Erdoğan making own trams and cars (2023 goal) and oil manufacturing with nuklear energy and in Karadeniz oil. At least we have someone who works.
Great work! 3 things to add. 1) European union talks failed when the causes for anti corruption and compliance bid to be discussed. The moment that it was realized that this will actually prevent the funding of the selected kleptocrats, all hell broke loose. 2) Interest rates as a tool was never utilized as they should be since politicians never let the central bank to act as an independent actor. Only exception would be between 2005 to 2015. That time Turkey has seen single digit inflation. The central bank was restructured and not pressured as crudely. 3) Dollar rate bound lira bonds were tried in 1970s to 1980s. It was introduced to make the Turkish diaspora to invest in Turkey with foreign currency. These bonds heavily contributed one of the greatest economic downturns in Turkish history around the end of 1978s, and gave another excuse for the military to conduct a coup in 1980s. Otherwise, great work.
Also the new presidential system made in 2017 and was passed with 51% vs 49% against which puts all powers under one person and no advisors is a cause... even Ali Babacan who was the economics minister under AKP resigned and joined opposition. AKP is now collapsing in the polls thanks to the new system.. and 70% of Turks dont like the 2017 system anymore. I think AKP will go. Had the new system not been made AKP might have survived a few more years
@@Ultron-o3i AKP lost its momentum. AKP was on the decline even before the 2016 coup. Unfortunately, the 2016 coup revived the AKP and they used nationalism to drive up their votes. After the switch to the presidential system in 2017, the AKP decline resumed. AKP has no chance of regaining its power and its heyday years after the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections. They will lose many seats in the parliament. If a highly competent politician like Mansur Yavas becomes a candidate, Erdogan will lose.
@@suzandefneklc8167 Any candidate will win even Kemal who is over 50% now due to the total opposition vote. AKP will drop to 20% by autumn/winter. Kemal knows the system he can fix it, transition to the parliament syatem, fight corruption, he has experience then hand it over to Ekrem or something. Meral will be PM. Yavaş is quiet.. also HDP will nominate a candidate if hes CB. So Kemal or Ekrem is the safest
I've read all your comments. Thanks for this nice discussion. However, there is a point where we are stuck. Millions of people want to know the answer to this question; biz niye bu konuyu ikinci dilimizle tartışıyoruz? Best regards.
The interplay between the Lira and Euro/Dollar markets in Türkiye seems very much like the interplay between the recently-deflated Terra and Luna coins. When demand for one rose at just the right time, the other fell into a deflationary spiral.
I live in Turkey, I've born in Turkey and I'm 14 years old right now. And I can say that it's not all about the currency loss (yeah 1$ = 18~₺ but its not *all* about that) we also have a tax problem think about yourself going to buy an iPhone in US iPhone 14 Pro Max starts at $1.099 (20.406,78₺) in TR iPhone 14 Pro Max starts at 43.999₺ ($2.369,55) in US the average wage is $2.200~ (40.850,70₺) ($14/hour, 40 hours/week) in TR the minimum wage (*more than 50% of the country* works at minimum wage) is 5.500₺ ($296,20) ($6,46/hour, 45,6 hours/week) You also have to pay for rent (which is so much higher than usual because of the refugee problem) electricity, water, etc. Even just this makes you think about how to eat because you'll end up not having any money after those But there's more you have to pay (if you dont want to be a cave man) TV, Internet, some other subscriptions (like YT premium, Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc.), food, school needs, etc. (theres so much things you have to pay and it makes me feel bad each time i think about them) Now think about this: EVEN if you didn't had to pay anything says on top, to buy ONLY an iPhone 14 Pro Max you'll have to work 8 MONTHS without paying anything else in US you can buy 2 IPHONE 14 PRO MAX IN *JUST ONE MONTH* I think that explains the situation in Turkey. (also apple doesn't even get the same money from turkey from a iPhone 14 Pro Max purchase, its less. Compaines need to make special prices for turkey to their product to sell)
You don't produce energy to run your factories + you don't have the technology to produce products to sell it to the world yet you want to buy iphone for cheap like US citizens 😂. All undeveloped countries has high taxes on foreign products so the currency reserve can't be consumed quickly. When your country have energy reserves and technology like US then you can talk about buying a cheap iphone.
Since Turkey is still lowering the interest rates, it means only one of two possibilities: 1- A shock therapy based on the previous foundations that had been established during the past 20 years in order to get a solid economic structure for the next 20 years at least. 2- A pre-ressetion boost to the economy before starting to think about raising interest -or- taxes rates. Maybe, Allah knows best.
Sebep olan ve anlamamakta direnen insanlar için bu videoyu paylaşmak istedim. Ama okumaya üşenirler. Üzücü. Şu an bunu yaşıyoruz. Tatile gitmek,bir hobi edinmek, bir kursa yazılıp kendini geliştirmek hatta arkadaşlarınla dışarı çıkıp bir kahve içmek bile lüks oldu. Şu an sadece barınma ve beslenme ihtiyacı için çalışıyor insanlar. Umarım bir şeyler düzelir de gerçekten YAŞAMAYA devam ederiz. Video için teşekkürler
Great. His next video will be on: Optimum Currency Areas (OCA), the Eurozone, spatial inequality, real exchange rate adjustment, internal devaluation, competitiveness, convergence, the impossibility trilemma, the macro-imbalances procedure (MIP), institutional barriers to mobility, and the economics of European integration. Cant wait!
I am glad that you made this video and it gave me a better picture of Turkey's economy, including dollarization, finance-based model Too often, the pundits of the Anglophone world want to relate every single problem of countries with Muslim majorities to religion
Are you sure you mean "pundits"? They're rather "puppet"s. WP, CNN, Guardian etc. are not only enemy of Islam, but (maybe even more) Christianity too. Rockefeller and other pharaohs' financed media's only mission to destabilise moral and morale of the people everywhere, leading the world to socialism (under different names) and other unnatural paradigms. Because you may not rule a free society, however may it well with so-called democracies since "representatives" do not represent whom they're supposed to, but whom they're funded by!
I am not an economist or an expert, but based on my observations and experiences; not only but an important way for a country's currency will depreciate (except monetizing) is that if a lot of money comes out of the treasury. This happens in two ways, either the state spends a lot of money, invests a lot and quickly. Or they steal money from the treasury. The second option in Türkiye is increasing day by day. There are some gang-up capital owners who have implicitly agreed with those in power, and they take every contract at a cost to the state. So they are constantly robbing the state. They must go, otherwise it's impossible to fix the economy.
Çok doğru bir yorumda bulunmuşsunuz. Bir şeylerin değişmesi lazım. Şuana kadar ülkeme faydalı biri olmaya çalışıyordum ama artık bende yurt dışına çıkmayı düşünüyorum.
It's not the first time that Turkish lira gets devaluated. Our brilliant (!) politicians had our economy driven out of Ataturk's vision for about 40-50 years. Current government kept numbers on the chart(s) lower by dropping 6 zeros out of the currency, yet that "simple fix" only lasted about a decade (and a half) and things went back to what it was. Postponing stuff is not the solution. A brief explanatory of Ataturk's vision could be found on Izmir Economic Congress. The point here is that it was held right after we have gained our independence.
From a mostly economical perspective, this is a nice video. Allow me to add some notes and details here and there; 1- Your Inflation graphic shows a peak at 80's and up until to 2000's that was that way. From 76-80 the political inner conflicts were so brutal, then at the 80 Turkey had a military coup and after that a solid military presence for the later part of the century in politics, a softer military intervention again at 97, and later in 2000's, and another coup attempt in 2016. Turkey's inner political rule is divided by "goverment" and "state", or to be more clear, a clash between civilian goverments versus military and judiciary bureaucracy intertwined with differences of worldviews, nepotism and loyalty, which resulted people of merit often be left out. That changed for several years in early 2000's for Erdogan at that time had to present a different way to be able to offer something, thus his partys name of justice and development party. Altough, that was a short period of time, several years up until somewhere between late 2000's and early 2010's. 2- Current economic instituions are under direct command or influence of the president and thus has no trust and reliability for their decisions, leading to unclear future expectations and the lack of independent instituions, which both are deal breaker for a free market economy. Central Bank, statistics agency (TÜİK) and other instituions just does not have any crediblity for their words and promises right now. In fact, independent researchers are reporting the inflation is, contrary to TÜİK's %70, is really around %140-160, which is closer to what people see in their everyday life. As you expect, faith in goverment for taking steps to stabilize the economy is quite low, and creates a strange cycle of spending habits as people start to think "whatever money i have, i have to spend it now because tomorrow i won't be able to afford what i can today." 3- Instituitons of Law is now at a state that no one expects anything that is consistent and applied for all the citizens. There is a distrust for the police, prosecutors and judges because they are under heavy stress of being marked, expelled or exiled out of their current positions into humiliating positions in other cities or areas of the country they currentli reside. The distrust in the law and lack of the reign of law (and demand for the reign of law) also another burden the country carries around causing corruption and efficiency losses, it is also a deterrent for investors. Don't get me wrong, this kind of rankism or corruption is not new for Turkey, this is the way that Turkey is for almost it's entire existence, but nowadays it became too obvious to ignore. One word from Erdoğan and your investments in the country can vaporize in a second and no one will prevent that even if it is not a lawful decision. This environment is not that good of a place to invest. He probably won't do such a thing, but he might, who knows? There are also many other problems when you look closely but i fear i have to stop writing at some point before this turns into a doom-wall-of-text. So, yeah, good video.
I like the video and appreciated your effort. You explained what really happens to the Turkish economy on the legal basis. But you skipped 2 crucial points. Turkish government actually still bribing the voters (or at least those has influence on voters like journalists, businessmen, local authorities and more) and Turkey has a huge black market backed by the government which makes things for us worse. One more point. In order to sustain that bribing and black market, government collects deadly level of taxes from the middle class and qualified workers. Because of that, many qualified workers and smart brains leaving the country rapidly. And if you have no qualified workers, you cant develop export goods to sell.
Erdoğan yaklaşık 20 yıldır iktidarda ve son 5 yıldır fiyatlar %200-300 oranında yükseldi. Türkiye şu anda bütçesinin önemli bir kısmını savunma sanayisine yatırmakta. Uçak, bayraktar, gemi ve daha fazlası. Ekonomiyi yöneten iki devlet var ve bu hiçbir zaman değişmez. Birincisi ABD diperi İngiltere. Türkiye bundan 10 yıl önce çok mu gelişmişti de dolar 1.2₺ idi? Şimdi çok mu geriledi de dolar 18₺ oldu? İngiltere ve ABD'ye boyun eğmediğimiz için ekonomi şuan bu şekilde. Aynısı İran'da da oldu. Bunları anlamak okadar zor değil.
@@mtark9988 turkey is literally center of hard drug trade in europe now. Drugs produced in afghanistan, pakistan and other middle eastern countries are shipped to europe from Turkey. Turkish government literally support this trade.
Video production quality is going up! I really like the maps and the simplified literal basket examples... Although at instances such as 2:30 it would be good to hear two lines as to WHY the Lira is no longer a good store of value or unit of account. Saying "obviously" didn't help me understand... Keep it up through! I'm a long time subscriber.
@@louvendran7273 Actually its a happy world. My boss is a CPO and he doesn't know anything about tech nor business. He just happens to be CEO's friend.
@@Handle0108 because all the Turkish people I meet speak against Erdogan, and most of the non Turkish, extremely religious muslims praise Erdogan as the one who is trying to establish their Caliphate.
Thank goodness someone did and honest assessment. I am glad you wrote not interest rates. The general media and TH-cam channels are so surface level. Jumping about interest rates all the times as if all is fixable with just one action. Thanks you found a new subscriber. 👍🏽
Overall excellent video. Just a minor correction. Property prices lost value against foreign currency for only a short period of time. After that property prices skyrocketed due to excessive demand and low supply. Interest rates lower than inflation rate contributed to increasing demand for property.
it makes no sense if you try to increase interest rates equal inflation if inflation really high. covid and then russia-ukrania war messed up lot of things specially covid hurt turism and supply chain,production
Great episode! I wish governments paid more attention to the laws of physics. Any physicist will tell you that doom-risk comes from force, which in turn comes from acceleration. Sudden shifts, like any step function imply massive acceleration, i.e. great force. And any action causes an equal and opposite reaction. So... suddenly decide to remove all controls on the Lira and total free enterprise? (Or, suddenly clamp down and control your economy completely...) In either case, sudden big steps will cause massive fluctuations (like pulling a string on a guitar).
@@exosproudmamabear558 Live like there's no tomorrow. ;-) Well, it certainly isn't just Turkey. I think this happens all the time when politics mixes with economic planning. After all, politicians score points when they promise "radical" (read: step-shaped) change. Aside from just plain old corruption, it's in their interest to appear to throw caution to the wind and to apply instant fixes. It's actually interesting and positive to learn (from this video) that Turkey is also trying to apply measures of a more gradual and feasible nature.
Government only care about their people akp , you cannot speak about them for example if you talk negative things about them , you can find yourself next day at a jail .
You need to compare the development done in these 10 years in Turkiye and Europe despite the currency liquidation. Also to find out that which country got the guts to reduce the interest rate.
Great video. I loved the ominous synth music at 16:45 Thank you for explaining this situation because from the outside, Erdogan lowering interest rates as the lira is depreciating seems like the actions of a madman.
Hello Joeri, your videos are so much informing for me as a new graduate international trade and finance student, and all the analysis of yours about Turkey is actually totally correct just like in your all other videos, except the reason for Dollarization in the country. For the case of too dollarization in Turkey is mostly caused by our trade activities, not by our choices to borrow money from foreign banks with less interest rates. Actually we don't even have that easy reach to foreiner banks to borrow since we are still not a total EU member. So, the dollarization in Turkey is mostly caused by the trade activities in which Turkish businesses like to operate in foreign currencies such as Dollar, and Euro with their foreign business partners which is more stable and forecastable, because Turkish Lira is not predictable just like you said. So, most of the debts in dollar are those debts our companies owe to foreign companies because of the trade activities. Another important point is just like you've pointed out Turkey's export is more than its import in terms of manufacturing products, but the key point is Turkey is really dependent on its energy needs and this need breaks the balance on current account. And I would like to point out Erdogan is a totally irrational leader in a nutshell. Your thoughts honestly are much much deeper than many Turkish eceonomist and feels like you live in this country thank you for your contribution.
now i want you to compare the number of homelessness, crime rate, suicide rate, sexual harassment, depression, cleanliness, easy access, birht rate etc between Turkey vs developed countries this number can show the happiest country
@@selaluoposisisiapapunpresi7982 I asked you to elaborate on what you mean by your previous comment and how does this relate to Turkey's economic crisis.And what do you mean by which country is happier?
@@frogmoment *I asked you to elaborate on what you mean by your previous comment and how does this relate to Turkey's economic crisis* its means that the government doing in the right decision, the economic crisis is not only happen in Turkey, so he should be greateful,, *And what do you mean by which country is happier?* are you a troll?
Even though I didn't understand some of what you said, this shed light on the questions in my head. turkey is in a really bankrupt situation because we still do not bring any innovation to the economy, if we could produce our own energy and not need external procurement my life become is better than now im also live in turkey
Bro i dont have to say i know but ignore the Erdoğan we love every country and peace and pride in our blood. Some directors can say what ever they want i dont care 🙏🏻
Come on, go here greek here there will be no bread for you You don't mess with my country over the economy You look at your own country's foreign debt You breathe with European funds Everyone knows your purpose, but you won't make it, we may come suddenly one night. 💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪💪🇹🇷
Awesome video as always. I am employing people in Turkey and is paying in EUR. Have been really easy to find qualified work but I think that might soon change if the lira takes a another direction. Following the situation with vested interested. Would have been interesting to learn how this crisis is similar to the tiger economies in the 90’ and how billionaires was able to interfere in with their monetary policies. Maybe there’s some degree of that here also?
Great video! By any chance would you be interested in making a video about the Irish economy? Another case of foreign investment having an overly large role in economic development, and some interesting parallels to draw between Ireland and the Netherlands. Keep up the amazing work
Hey Joeri. If you wont do a video on the Eurozone, how about doing one on the real exchange rate adjustment and internal devaluation and critique it as a failure of neoclassical theory. I would ask UE but he is probably to busy playing video games.
@@PoliticalEconomy101 I feel like the issue of lowering domestic demand during a recession has been explored enough already, so I can understand why he hasn't looked at internal devaluation in a whole video
The real basket inflation index is around 300%. Minimum wage in Turkey raised nearly 200%. Government printing money. Brand new car prices are 4 to 6 times higher than 2019. House rent is unpayable in most major cities for locals. 1 Mcdonald's Big Mac menu is nearly 6 hours of work for mininum wagers. 350 grams of baby food is a full day work for a low pay job, an 800 gram version of that is a full day work for a public school teacher. What a lovely decade to live as a young turkish entrepreneur in his 30s... We are basically trying to survive.
It's sad, that people in Turkey are not capable of comprehending the effort the government's putting in to increase the wealth of the future generations. The government is like in the video said, working on it's energy dependence, but the own citizens are not really understanding, that the process of getting wealthy takes time.
The sponsor Masterworks seems like a scam business. I know that content creators should not have to be put into the position of criticizing their sponsors but this one seems like a grift. Great video otherwise.
Whenever people talk about wanting to be next Japan or S. Korea most often than not they forgot to mention "external factors" which help their export grows exponentially. 1. Japan and S. Korea have ASEAN, a market with 500m population. unlike EU they dont care much about quality. 2. Japan and S. Korea are in friendly terms with ASEAN. They dont antagonized their neighbours unlike Turkey under Erdogan. 3. In return ASEAN leaders are friendly to Japan and S. Korea. They never enact over-protection policy unlike EU who trying to mask their protection by going on environmental narrative and such.
Amazing words. Thank you. Eu doesn't want to update custom union with Turkey because it Will benefit Turkey much more than EU even though it Will benefit EU as well.. Walkswagen cancelled their investment in Turkey just because of politics.
NZ is fortunate. We have strong exports but, our imports out pace especially with high property lending to off shore banks. NZ has a similar problem, we need to keep more money inside our economy while continuing to export strongly. Our greatest threat is a drop in demand from China, in particular.
Hi, there seems to be a few misconceptions. 1) The lira did not start its downfall with either the pandemic or the ukraine war. It started long before those circa 2013, due to political instability, a slide towards economic unorthodoxy and an autocratic regime. This decreased Turkey's credit ratings and made it harder to finance the trade gap. When coupled with low interest rates, it turned in to a vicious cyle of devaluation and inflation. Of course, property-based growth model contributed to the trade gap, but this is already well understood and a mainstream view among economists studying Turkey. It is called "betona para gömmek", which translates to "burying money in to concrete", which is a slogan used by the opposition to criticize the incumbent party's decades-long economic model. 2) Actually, houses prices in Turkey has not dropped in USD, it increased +30% in USD, even with monetary thightening by the Fed. This is due to capital controlls imposed by the government. There are some really wacky instutuions put in place now that makes Turkey a great labarotory in terms of monetary theory. For example, all exporters need to exchange at least halfof their foreign currency income in to Turkish lira, they are greatly encouraed to invest in property, because they are not allowed to take TRY credits if they hold above a certain amount of dollars, and ofc no one wants to hold TRY but needs it for short term liquidity, no one wants to invest, what firms with net profit do, they buy properties. Or another example, individuals pay a much less interest rate for buying houses if they are to convert some capital for financing the purchase from USD to TRY.
So the money printing in Turkey (M1 rose by 500% in the last 5 years) does not have an impact? An effective De-Dollarisation would mean to outlaw foreign currency in some form. This in turn would have quite dire consequences for its tourism and other export industries as this would deal a major blow to foreign investors. A better solution would be to shrink government spending and thus the money printing, what would normalise inflation.
It has been almost never be the case of printing money. That money does not circulate freely in the economy so the effects on cpi is very low. Also it is so funny to me you make it such a deal to de dollarize the economy so you can say "cut the spending?!?!?" Cutting spending is not a good thing for an economy Especially in the long run. The example of south korea, china and (and to a lesser extent) japan shows us this is the case. What the govenrment actually needs to do is tho grow certain sectors by supporting them financially (as was the case for china and south korea) and make them export-ready. But believe in what you want to believe. Dont let these facts stop you to believe in conservative bullshit my man.
So all this highly corrupt government has to do is . . . Stop being corrupt, and everything will be fine. It seems so easy, for an outsider, but why would the government decide to live within its means, when it hasn't for years ?
How does outlawing affect tourism? Any dollar from tourism goes to the central bank not people's banks since they have to convert to the local currency before they can spend, right?
@@jameskamotho7513 No real effect on tourism, the tourists will just have to get local money from the government representative, before buying stuff. This is how they do it in Venezuela, since all things must be priced in bolivars, theoretically, although there is a black market as well.
The reason for this dollar increase in Turkey is the decrease in the interest rate. Although it seems to be to the detriment of Turkey in the short run, it has contributed significantly to the increase of Turkey's defense industry and exports in the long run. 
Hmm, I think you have to factor in what the "real" interest rate is. If the inflation is 80% and interest rates are 30% then people in debt are fed "free" money over time, especially if they can invest that in inflation proof assets. That is not a good thing, if speculators are so profitable then a country's economy will become riddled with speculation with the purpose of extracting "free money" rather than concerned with producing anything sensible as such, and the consequence is that a country will have no legs to stand on, no solid industrial foundation which which to rely upon in tough times. It is a LONG term problem and inflation is a very short term solution that will only come back to bite harder and harder and it will bite the common man hardest of all.
Hi. Тhis was a great video. If inflation rates were raised in accordance with the IMF's suggetions how long do you think it would take to start to see inflation go down? immediate? 6 months? 1 year?
Such a good and clear video ! I finally got the real answer on why I had to buy a new phone or pay a tax for using my european phone in turkey. I think they desactivate the IMEI after six months, you have the choice to pay an new one from turkey or pay a tax that is the same price as a second hand phone. This is just an example of course. I'm suscribing.
Thank you for this video! I'm Turkish and I was one of those looking at this issue surface-level. Now I see that increasing the interest rates is not the solution.
no increasing the interest rate is solution for inflation. no other way fix inflation. faiz oranlarını arttırmadan enflasyonu düşürmenin yolu yok eleman bunu söylememiş ayrıca bu sadece küçük biri amerika bile faiz arttırıyor pakistan bile arttırıyor
faiz artırmak geçici çözüm diyor kalıcı çözüm için ihracatın ve üretimin artması gerektiğinden bahsetti çin, japonya ve güney koredeki ekonomi modeline benzer şekilde
@@turtlepeak6130 yav türkiye sence japonya güney kore modelimi 5 mütahite tüm parayı veriyor halk aç fakirleşti buınların mantıgı yanlıs faiz arttırnıca gelen sıcak parayla üretim için fabrika kurması lazım bunlar onu kimsenin geçmediği paralı yol köprüler yaptıgı hiç paraları boşa harcadılar buda fayda sağlamadı artı faiz arttırmadan enflasyonu düşürmenin bir yolu yok araştırabilirsin.
Bir de pandemi zamanında karşılıksız para basan ve şimdi onları piyasadan toplamak için faizi yükselten bunun sonucu yatırımların durup işsizliğin tavan yapması yani resesyona düşeceği ve büyük halk hareketleri beklenen ABD ve AB için video hazırlar mısınız?
😁 resesyona girse ne olur adamlardaki 1 şirketin değeri senin 500 şirketinin değerinden fazla komik olmayın be kardeşim. Biz önce kendi halimize aglayalim herkes kendi ne halde biliyor.
@@arzz08 her şirket nakit akışında bıçak sırtında olur. Bir hata koca şirketleri batırır. ABD askerî, siyasi gücü ile yıllarca bütçe açığını hırsızlık(suni güvenlik kaygıları ile yüzlerce milyar dolarlık silah satışı, IMF'nin dünya milletlerini yalancı ihtiyaçlar ile borçlandırması ve dünyaya mal satmanın birinci şartı doları almak için her devletin verdiği en az %10-15 faiz haracı) ile diğer milletlerinin hazinesinden karşıladı. Artık ne tek askerî güç ne de mutlak siyasi hakim. Demek kral çıplak olduğu herkes biliyor. O ilah/devlet gördüğün ABD'de 2008 krizinde yüz yıllık şirketler battı. Sermaye birikiminin ve üretim gücünün doğuya kayması ile sert ABD gücü jöle kıvamına döndü. Bir sıcaklık görse suya dönüşüp akıp gidecek.
Thank God AKtrolls don't know English =) lucky you. When we decrease the interest rates the inflation will decrease as well, eventually, at some point, maybe, hope so =)
Biz ülkemizdeki dayılara evet dayılar yaşlı başlı dayılara bunu bir türlü anlatamadık çünkü onlar her şeyi kendi zamanlarındaki gibi sanıyor bu yüzdende bizim her şeyden şikayetçi olduğumuzu sölüyorlar oysaki onlar günlerinin çoğunu kahvehanelerde akranlarıyla konuşup günün geri kalan kısmındada Facebook ta kızlara bakıp yada komik olmayan postlara gülerek geçiriyorlar
@@Emircan_67 arastir türkiye hangi ürünleri dışarıdan alıyor üretimi neden yok. 40 adet fabrika satıldı ayrıca kapatılan fabrikalardan haberdarsindir umarım.
Ya kurban olduğum biz Türkçe konuştuğumuz halde halkımıza bunu anlatamadık. Şimdi seni açıp nasıl izleteceğiz
Doğru Kediler okuyamaz🐑🐑🐑🐑
Anlamadıklarından emin misin
Çeviri
😎
Ne anladın aga özetler misin
Adamlar bizim ekonomiyi konuşuyor. Bunlar nasıl bu hayat pahalılığında yaşayabiliyor diye şaşırıyor. İnanın biz de şaşırıyoruz.
Ulu boz kuzenim Almanya'da knk benim kuzen burda olanlardan haberi yok geçen konuştuk öylebi aydinlattim ki gelmekten vaz geçti 3 yıldır dönecem falan diyordu adama kuzen burda kiralar en düşük 3k ekmek 4tl. Diğer gıdalar uçtu meyve zebze şu fiyat diyince. Bana bağırarak lan yoksa asgari 15 20bin mi oldu diyo abi adama 5.5k asgari dedim çıldırdı valla :)
bizim küçük baş halkımız halinden memnun şükrediyor
@@Normal_difficulty69 Evet şükür ediyoruz. Bir akıllı siz değilsiniz. Sadece sizin aklınız çalışmıyor.
az bile size. almanyadan selamlar
Adam psikopat halkını açlıkla sınıyor
Kendi ülkemin ekonomisini yabancı kanaldan izliyorum. Ve siz bizim hükümetimiz den daha doğru haber yapıyorsunuz . (Burada hayat pahalı ama hala nefes alabiliyoruz)
şimdi derler nefes alabiliyorsun daha ne istiyorsun
Hop karşim ne çok nefes alıyon vergisini verdin mi
sen videoyu izlediğine emin misin?
@@Ataavci buna şükür 🐑
Ama neremizden 😂😂😂
Özetle finansa dayalı ekonominin geçici düzelme sağladığını bunun yerine Kore, Japonya gibi üretime dayalı ekonomiye geçilmesi gerektiğini ifade etmiş. Yani katma değeri yurt içi kaynaklar ile üretmeden, patent, ticari marka vb artırmadan bu işler zor. Bunun için özellikle büyük şirketlerin yatırımlarının kayda değer bölümünü Arge tarafında harcaması gerekiyor. Yoksa başımıza A, B, C ne partisini getirirsek getirelim çözüm olmaz, olamaz.
aralarından bu anlayışa sahip bir tek rte var. bu videoda da anlatıldığı gibi hükümet mücadele ediyor, herkese, her engele, her türlü iç/dış baskıya maruz kalmasına rağmen. Bari kendi halkı destek olsa.. ama yok, gaza gelen muhalif oluyor :)
Hay ağzına sağlık. Faizi artırınca kalıcı olarak çözüm olacağını sanıyor andavallar sırf Erdoğan düşmanlığından körü körüne. Şuanki ekonomik model kısa vadede sıkıntılı günler geçireceğimizi gösterse de ileride çok çok rahat bir gelecek bekliyor yeter ki sabır.
Bizim mafyalar yerli üretim yapan,para kazanan ne kadar holding varsa çöküyor
@@ismailsoluk Ne mafyası kardeş nerde yaşıyosun ya? Hiçbir mafya dünyanın neresinde olursa olsun devletten büyük değildir. Bizde en başta olması gereken devlet kavramı yok her yeni gelen hükümet devletin ta kendisi oluyor. Önce ortada bir devlet olacak! Bak mesela Amerika parlamentosuna heriflerde senato var devlet sabit. Mesela son dönemde gelen Trump, Bidon gibi kişiler bir iş yerinde işletmeci gibiler ama patron değiller yeri geldiğinde yargılanabiliyorlar. Bizde paşamızın üstü yok. Bugün isterse ülkeyi de satar isterse savaşa sokup yok da eder.
@@ismailsoluk Bu sebeple; mafya da çöker gücü yeten de gelir çöker yani. Bizim önce insanımızı değiştirmemiz gerekiyor ben araplardan sonra böyle yobaz cahil toplum görmedim. Ne enteresandır ki bizim insanımız kendi kazdığı çukura düşüyor sürekli ama beyin mi yok nedir akıllanmıyorlar düştükleri yerde yine kazmaya devam ediyorlar.
Turkish Economy should be studied as a case for the students at universities.
Likewise
In fact, the name of the course is how not to manage the economy.
Yeni çıkan sosyal medya yasası bu videoyu görmesin 🙁 yazık olur sana
@@LAGA9 türkiyede değilse hiç birşey yapwmazlar
@@Felix-C3yh4n We are going through difficult times..
@@TheOnlySalvatio where are u live?
Abi ben utandım ya başka milletler anladı bizim hakkımız hâlâ anlamıyor daha ne yapalım elimizde bişey kalmadı bizim geleceğimiz çok karanlık
Batin da senin böyle düşünmen için çalışıyor.
Turkiye kendi yulunu ciziyor batıdan bağımsız anla artık.
Don't sweat it, im a Turk in America, things have gotten severely expensive aswell, if you think America is sunshines and rainbows you are not correct. Our purchasing power eroded alot, and I think the reason people come to Turkiye is for the power of the currency they work for in a different country.
The problem i see is Turkey has always been too dependent to other countries. The government generally preferred gaining money on taxes of imported goods. Even now the rate and range of taxes has increased in Turkey.
As a foreigner even you can see this issue from a mile away. Sadly the politicians in Turkey are too slow in the head to realise this issue.
When we buy a shoe, we buy two shoes for the state.
.(I am Turkish)
@@rexa1893 :)
We'r buying Iphone 3x more cost.
Every country is always dependent to others. We're not as lucky as EU countries which have common trade priviliges or countries like have oil and gas. Our only hope is foreign investment. But the country that invest us, pull out all of their investments because of Turkeys political actions. Thanks USA!
I have been living in Turkey for 23 years.93% of people live in cities. Farmers are not supported. Since gasoline is expensive and fertilizer is expensive, people do not want to do it at a loss. Since there is no production, or rather, it is not enough for the population of the country, many products are imported. Therefore, foreign trade deficit occurs every year. Besides, the problems between covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine made the economy worse, but there was a serious management problem before.
+up
Helal len
Cool story. Have the real estate prices falling a lot? Can I buy a 3 bedroom penthouse in the middle of Istanbul for less than $100,000 USD yet?
@@deebil8099do u think real estate deprecates with higher inflation xdd?
very nice explanation. I live in turkey. As always, it is the people who are badly affected.the rich got richerthe poor became more and more poor.
missing part in video ; refugees
10 million refugees arrived in the country.Most of them are poor Syrians. and the government spent a lot of money on the war in syria
Türkçe biliyor musun? 😅😅😅
Senden büyük Allah var
Erdoğan elinden geleni yapıyor fakat bizim halkımız dolar almaya devam ederse bu %30 halkında sorunudur...
@@sericot6218 yok
@@cm2sasuke +12 velet kızdı bağalim ne yapacak 🤔
I’m not an economist but i want to say this. I’m a Turkish citizen and our government increased the tax rates drastically to compensate their problems. In Turkey whatever you buy, it maybe bread, cheese, beer, tv, phone, car… The tax doubles the amount. If i want to buy a car, i simply have to buy a car for my government. And the worse thing is, government is still using some of that tax money for it’s own election propaganda which takes place in summer of 2023.
Bah bah allah aşkına bah 😂😂 bu ne sahtekârca bir iftiradır. Özellikle ıngilizce yazmış. Bizim meclisimizde terörist bile var. O kadar laik ve çağdaş bir ülkeyiz ki meclise kadar terörist sokup dokunmuyoruz özgürüz biz. Özgür ve terörist hdp de seçim için hazineden para alıyor onu neden yazmıyorsun.
Haha "If i want to buy a car, i simply have to buy a car for my government." I wish that was true. You don't buy *A* car you buy SEVERAL. It is truly fucked.
@@Ouryuu-Zenokun he means, i pay 2 cars, 1 for me, 1 for goverment. So i have A car
@@alperenegridere5498 im saying the tax is high enough where you are effectively buying at least 2 for the government and one for yourself
Biraz fazla abartı olmaya başladı bu vergi olayı tamam fazlada 1 bana 1 hükümete kadarda değil:/
Man this channel is so good. I've been trying to stay informed about the lira and this current crisis for a while, but every news outlet was only repeating the same story over and over again about Erdogan and interest rates, which as M&M said isn't necessarily wrong, but it always felt unfinished as an answer.
I'm glad outlets like this exist that aren't afraid to make an actually well-researched and in-depth look into a thing like this because unfortunately a lot of western publications are not great at tackling many issues coming from outside of western Europe or the US.
Yep, I think one thing is seeing it through the lens of the countries they live in.
But these emerging economies can't operate the same way, nor can they grow the same way we did. It's also the case that they need to carve out a different niche. Only so many financial services companies and car manufacturers can exist.
MSM isn't even good about reporting what's happening in the US or Europe, just projecting their own worldview and perspective.
@@taiefmiah well said. I'm of the mind that most countries need to attempt to get some food and energy security first before they build an economy on top of that. It's frightening how dependent the whole continent of Europe is on outside energy...
However, if messing with the monetary policy with no further understanding of it was not the case in Turkey, there would be 0 viewers for this video. Much of the opinions raised in this video are indeed accurate. Still, you may go deep dive into the period BEFORE the huge misconception materialized in 2018. Almost all the arguments in this video would be vanished such as exchange rate, inflation, dollarization, etc. A clear comparison among the emerging economies before 2018 would give the clearest view.
I second that. I follow a lot of different TH-cam channels to keep myself informed about this topic and that one, and they're hard to compare. But I'm tempted to say that, for me, this channel may actually be #1. Real gold mine 👍
"Some channels would claim that 8.5 pct inflation in the United States is hyperinflation" dude those shots at EE 🤣🤣🤣.
Thanks for this non-bias and non-political analysis of the situation there. Most of the the analysis that you hear on the big news channels simply put the blame on not raising interest rates, and fail to address the structural problems of the economy in total.
In one part of the video, a part about the factory and tourism caught my attention. When we look at it, Turkey is quite developed in terms of hazelnut production, but most of these factories do not belong to the Turks as before. Since our factories, which meet Turkey's exports, are mostly sold to "Arab unions", we can only get commission from this situation. As for tourism, we had a tourism spot called Uzungöl in Trabzon, but all the texts on the signs were translated into Arabic. In short, Turkey has started to translate the materials that will contribute to the economy into other unions and other languages. For example, while Nutella hazelnut was exported by the Turks, it started to be exported by the French and Arab troops (example) and a part of the income here began to go to the state instead of all. In terms of interest, the state struggles for the religion of Islam. Since interest is a haram thing in Islam, Erdogan was disturbed by this situation and started to lower the interest rate, but at the same time he continues to use taxes on alcohol products, which are a sin in Islam. While he lowers the interest rate because it is haram, he gives the money he earns from alcohol products, which he calls a sin, to the state elders as a salary. In short, the money he receives is also a sin, but he does not say anything to it. What they say conflicts with each other.
Adam yavaş yavaş durdurmaya çalışıyor birden yapsa hem ekonomi çöker hem de azgın tayfa sokağa dökülür
this is wrong he doesnt fight interest rates only because Islam but high interest rates detrimental for healty producer country and the thing Turkey wants became producer ,exporter.there are lot of countries tries lower interest rates much as posible that lot of them not Islamıc countries.
As you can see hear It's not about Islam. He uses name of Islam for some issues and it's work. People think that he does everything for Islam ( or they want to think that way) So don't use the name of Islam for his actions
@@g.wizsensei760 Well recently many countries are increasing interest rates to combat inflation and Erdogan is doing the exact opposite.
I shouldn't be assuming things but it seems like he is doing all of this for Islam. The last thing he needs is for ridiculously high inflation in Turkey and a plummeting Lira as people borrow more and more money. Raising interest rates can at least help mitigate the effects and help with the transition.
The 70% is the official inflation, and is calculated in increasingly dubious ways. Neither the public nor economists seem to believe in it. The real inflation could be as high as double that.
hi
Ufuk hocam, bunlarada da dış güçler ekonomimize saldırıyor o yüzden böyle diyelim mi? 😝
@@halitkorkmaz441 hayal dünyasında yaşıyorsun
@@halitkorkmaz441 dış güç diye birşey yoktur !
300%
I have seen many videos that try to explain the financial crisis in Turkey. This is the best and most objective one so far.
You left something out but it's understandable as it might be hard to know as a foreigner. The reason lira was kinda stable from november until recently (it rose a lot 2 days ago) is not because the dollar fixed interest rate but because the central bank is still selling it's dollar reserves. 2 billion a month to combat the selling pressure of lira.
I read this mainly explained the rise of the Lira after introducing the scheme.... Still a good point! That I should have mentioned.
Something can be caused by more than one thing you know
None of that blurb you talk is making any sense. *Bottom-line:* The Turkish economy makes it *easier for low-currency African states to invest in low-currency Turkish services and goods-development into Africa, instead of investing in top-heavy Euro-goods and services.* BRICS affiliated states will not bother with Euro-centric paradigms, and will keep their raw because *it is dunce to sell and buy back* instead of develop local joint-venture and then split even. Sorry, but this vid is only a cheap EU-fiscal propaganda video *from one of the poorer places in the EU that has low-to-no resources to propagate an image...or at least a logical one.* And I think the train for that has long left the platform. There was too much *indulgence in racism* and it backfired after the Ukraine war against the Neo-Nazi virus that came out of Germany!
basically a personalized bretton-woods :)
you should tell this story to all Italians that think that having currency ownership means having no problems.... :)
@@serpentlaw5961 Are you really making a case that rampant inflation is good because it would be easier for African states to invest into Turkey?
The economic policy carried out on gold and silver with zero interest is the most beneficial for Turkey.
@@mustafaakdag69 altın ve gümüş ile piyasayı kontrol etmek , hiç bir ülkeye bağlı kalmadan ekonominin sürekliliğini sağlar. Faiz zengini daha zengin fakiri daha fakir hale getiriyor . En mantıklı çözüm bahsettiğimiz çözüm kardeşim.
"Ne de olsa Türkiye'de faiz oranları uzun yıllar yüksekti ve temel sorunlar daha da kötüleşti..."
I really appreciate the physical props. It helps demonstrate your arguments.
Right, so much better than the usual stock photos from channels like economics explained (no shade to that channel just an opinion!)
Definitely agree!
Finally, an objective analysis that sheds the light on the reasons behind the crises. Literally all the resources I came across blame the economic crises on the government for not raising interest rates even more. As if raising interest rates (which is already very high) is the magical solution to all problems. Thank you for providing such informative content. I'm already a subscriber to the channel, but I just activated the bell icon 😎.
We had an economic crisis way before Erdogans abysmal interest rate problems. Although it actually made things a lot worse it wasn't the real problem.
Thank you!
Raising interest rates is not a magical solution but it is a temporary solution and would fix the current lira problem.
"interest rates (which is already very high)"
The current (nominal) policy rate is 14% while inflation is something like 70%. That means that in real terms the policy rate is -56% (!) which is incredibly low and not high by any reasonable measure.
@@seneca983 Yeah interests rates are not high because our president don't like interest. He even tried to lower it the dolar/tl raised from 8 to 18 in a few weeks. Inflation got worse. People losing faith in lira started to buy more dolar and euro increasing the dolarisation level. Then he made a sudden decision in the middle of night that he will pay for the exchange rate difference so people wont be able sell their dolar to salvage their money but his lackeys could make more money out of it. Next morning dolar crushed to the 12. Now it is 15 seriously they are idiots. Everyone could see this was a risky and stupid idea but he still did it.
Great video, as always! As a microeconomist, it's nice to have a reliable and condensed update from the macro people, from time to time. I wish more academic economists could start their own TH-cam channel.
There is a missing part. It's a matter of justice. If there is no justice in a country, there is no economy. I'm writing this in English so that I don't get jailed. I like the video.
You are a sensible man, thank you for giving your perspective👍
you are right about there is no justice because you are lying and there is no punishment for you. there is no one can go jail if they write what you said in Turkish you can even write that personal media of President Erdogan.
@@g.wizsensei760 am i a liar?
@@burakkeskinklc8269 About going jail part yes.
The problem is we in Türkiye buy everything from USA and EU, our phones and laptops and TV are all abroad brands. They are manufactured in Turkey but all that currency goes to foreign country exhanged, so Lira loses it values.
I am happy to see Erdoğan making own trams and cars (2023 goal) and oil manufacturing with nuklear energy and in Karadeniz oil. At least we have someone who works.
Great work! 3 things to add.
1) European union talks failed when the causes for anti corruption and compliance bid to be discussed. The moment that it was realized that this will actually prevent the funding of the selected kleptocrats, all hell broke loose.
2) Interest rates as a tool was never utilized as they should be since politicians never let the central bank to act as an independent actor. Only exception would be between 2005 to 2015. That time Turkey has seen single digit inflation. The central bank was restructured and not pressured as crudely.
3) Dollar rate bound lira bonds were tried in 1970s to 1980s. It was introduced to make the Turkish diaspora to invest in Turkey with foreign currency. These bonds heavily contributed one of the greatest economic downturns in Turkish history around the end of 1978s, and gave another excuse for the military to conduct a coup in 1980s.
Otherwise, great work.
Also the new presidential system made in 2017 and was passed with 51% vs 49% against which puts all powers under one person and no advisors is a cause... even Ali Babacan who was the economics minister under AKP resigned and joined opposition. AKP is now collapsing in the polls thanks to the new system.. and 70% of Turks dont like the 2017 system anymore. I think AKP will go. Had the new system not been made AKP might have survived a few more years
1 doların 2000 lira olduğu günleri görecek miyiz yine, yoksa kur o raddeye gelmeden evvel Tayyip gitmiş mi olacak?
@@Ultron-o3i AKP lost its momentum. AKP was on the decline even before the 2016 coup. Unfortunately, the 2016 coup revived the AKP and they used nationalism to drive up their votes. After the switch to the presidential system in 2017, the AKP decline resumed. AKP has no chance of regaining its power and its heyday years after the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections. They will lose many seats in the parliament. If a highly competent politician like Mansur Yavas becomes a candidate, Erdogan will lose.
@@suzandefneklc8167 Any candidate will win even Kemal who is over 50% now due to the total opposition vote. AKP will drop to 20% by autumn/winter. Kemal knows the system he can fix it, transition to the parliament syatem, fight corruption, he has experience then hand it over to Ekrem or something. Meral will be PM. Yavaş is quiet.. also HDP will nominate a candidate if hes CB. So Kemal or Ekrem is the safest
I've read all your comments. Thanks for this nice discussion. However, there is a point where we are stuck. Millions of people want to know the answer to this question; biz niye bu konuyu ikinci dilimizle tartışıyoruz?
Best regards.
Mads Mikkelsen tells you about different world's economics in deep details for 20 mins, my favourite channel 😁
The interplay between the Lira and Euro/Dollar markets in Türkiye seems very much like the interplay between the recently-deflated Terra and Luna coins. When demand for one rose at just the right time, the other fell into a deflationary spiral.
Undo your comment you are racist how to compare Turkish lira and Luna Turkish lira worst than Luna xD
I live in Turkey, I've born in Turkey and I'm 14 years old right now. And I can say that it's not all about the currency loss (yeah 1$ = 18~₺ but its not *all* about that) we also have a tax problem
think about yourself going to buy an iPhone
in US iPhone 14 Pro Max starts at $1.099 (20.406,78₺)
in TR iPhone 14 Pro Max starts at 43.999₺ ($2.369,55)
in US the average wage is $2.200~ (40.850,70₺) ($14/hour, 40 hours/week)
in TR the minimum wage (*more than 50% of the country* works at minimum wage) is 5.500₺ ($296,20) ($6,46/hour, 45,6 hours/week)
You also have to pay for rent (which is so much higher than usual because of the refugee problem) electricity, water, etc.
Even just this makes you think about how to eat because you'll end up not having any money after those
But there's more you have to pay (if you dont want to be a cave man)
TV, Internet, some other subscriptions (like YT premium, Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc.), food, school needs, etc. (theres so much things you have to pay and it makes me feel bad each time i think about them)
Now think about this:
EVEN if you didn't had to pay anything says on top, to buy ONLY an iPhone 14 Pro Max you'll have to work 8 MONTHS without paying anything else
in US you can buy 2 IPHONE 14 PRO MAX IN *JUST ONE MONTH*
I think that explains the situation in Turkey.
(also apple doesn't even get the same money from turkey from a iPhone 14 Pro Max purchase, its less.
Compaines need to make special prices for turkey to their product to sell)
helal kardeşim benim cansın
You don't produce energy to run your factories + you don't have the technology to produce products to sell it to the world yet you want to buy iphone for cheap like US citizens 😂. All undeveloped countries has high taxes on foreign products so the currency reserve can't be consumed quickly. When your country have energy reserves and technology like US then you can talk about buying a cheap iphone.
@@thechannel3901 I m from turkey you are right broo 👍👍
@@franfuck7669 çeviriden baksan bir tık daha iyi yazmış olurdun ama sen bilirsin
@@thechannel3901 We have the technology to sell unmanned aerial vehicles to the whole world;)
Since Turkey is still lowering the interest rates, it means only one of two possibilities:
1- A shock therapy based on the previous foundations that had been established during the past 20 years in order to get a solid economic structure for the next 20 years at least.
2- A pre-ressetion boost to the economy before starting to think about raising interest -or- taxes rates.
Maybe, Allah knows best.
Sebep olan ve anlamamakta direnen insanlar için bu videoyu paylaşmak istedim. Ama okumaya üşenirler. Üzücü. Şu an bunu yaşıyoruz. Tatile gitmek,bir hobi edinmek, bir kursa yazılıp kendini geliştirmek hatta arkadaşlarınla dışarı çıkıp bir kahve içmek bile lüks oldu. Şu an sadece barınma ve beslenme ihtiyacı için çalışıyor insanlar. Umarım bir şeyler düzelir de gerçekten YAŞAMAYA devam ederiz. Video için teşekkürler
Great. His next video will be on: Optimum Currency Areas (OCA), the Eurozone, spatial inequality, real exchange rate adjustment, internal devaluation, competitiveness, convergence, the impossibility trilemma, the macro-imbalances procedure (MIP), institutional barriers to mobility, and the economics of European integration. Cant wait!
I am glad that you made this video and it gave me a better picture of Turkey's economy, including dollarization, finance-based model
Too often, the pundits of the Anglophone world want to relate every single problem of countries with Muslim majorities to religion
Are you sure you mean "pundits"? They're rather "puppet"s. WP, CNN, Guardian etc. are not only enemy of Islam, but (maybe even more) Christianity too. Rockefeller and other pharaohs' financed media's only mission to destabilise moral and morale of the people everywhere, leading the world to socialism (under different names) and other unnatural paradigms. Because you may not rule a free society, however may it well with so-called democracies since "representatives" do not represent whom they're supposed to, but whom they're funded by!
@@LiberalDictate lol when the fuck do you Islamists represent all 1 billion Muslims on earth?
I am not an economist or an expert, but based on my observations and experiences; not only but an important way for a country's currency will depreciate (except monetizing) is that if a lot of money comes out of the treasury. This happens in two ways, either the state spends a lot of money, invests a lot and quickly. Or they steal money from the treasury. The second option in Türkiye is increasing day by day. There are some gang-up capital owners who have implicitly agreed with those in power, and they take every contract at a cost to the state. So they are constantly robbing the state. They must go, otherwise it's impossible to fix the economy.
u true af bro
Sen bence Türkiye Türküsün özetlemişsin :)
@@FahrettinTurkkanPasa evet
Çok doğru bir yorumda bulunmuşsunuz. Bir şeylerin değişmesi lazım. Şuana kadar ülkeme faydalı biri olmaya çalışıyordum ama artık bende yurt dışına çıkmayı düşünüyorum.
Hırsızlık külturu
It's not the first time that Turkish lira gets devaluated. Our brilliant (!) politicians had our economy driven out of Ataturk's vision for about 40-50 years. Current government kept numbers on the chart(s) lower by dropping 6 zeros out of the currency, yet that "simple fix" only lasted about a decade (and a half) and things went back to what it was. Postponing stuff is not the solution.
A brief explanatory of Ataturk's vision could be found on Izmir Economic Congress. The point here is that it was held right after we have gained our independence.
Very beautiful documentary, mooi dat jullie ook zo on partijdig zijn. Happy that at least Türkiye tries to solve the problem.
From a mostly economical perspective, this is a nice video.
Allow me to add some notes and details here and there;
1- Your Inflation graphic shows a peak at 80's and up until to 2000's that was that way. From 76-80 the political inner conflicts were so brutal, then at the 80 Turkey had a military coup and after that a solid military presence for the later part of the century in politics, a softer military intervention again at 97, and later in 2000's, and another coup attempt in 2016. Turkey's inner political rule is divided by "goverment" and "state", or to be more clear, a clash between civilian goverments versus military and judiciary bureaucracy intertwined with differences of worldviews, nepotism and loyalty, which resulted people of merit often be left out. That changed for several years in early 2000's for Erdogan at that time had to present a different way to be able to offer something, thus his partys name of justice and development party. Altough, that was a short period of time, several years up until somewhere between late 2000's and early 2010's.
2- Current economic instituions are under direct command or influence of the president and thus has no trust and reliability for their decisions, leading to unclear future expectations and the lack of independent instituions, which both are deal breaker for a free market economy. Central Bank, statistics agency (TÜİK) and other instituions just does not have any crediblity for their words and promises right now. In fact, independent researchers are reporting the inflation is, contrary to TÜİK's %70, is really around %140-160, which is closer to what people see in their everyday life. As you expect, faith in goverment for taking steps to stabilize the economy is quite low, and creates a strange cycle of spending habits as people start to think "whatever money i have, i have to spend it now because tomorrow i won't be able to afford what i can today."
3- Instituitons of Law is now at a state that no one expects anything that is consistent and applied for all the citizens. There is a distrust for the police, prosecutors and judges because they are under heavy stress of being marked, expelled or exiled out of their current positions into humiliating positions in other cities or areas of the country they currentli reside. The distrust in the law and lack of the reign of law (and demand for the reign of law) also another burden the country carries around causing corruption and efficiency losses, it is also a deterrent for investors. Don't get me wrong, this kind of rankism or corruption is not new for Turkey, this is the way that Turkey is for almost it's entire existence, but nowadays it became too obvious to ignore. One word from Erdoğan and your investments in the country can vaporize in a second and no one will prevent that even if it is not a lawful decision. This environment is not that good of a place to invest. He probably won't do such a thing, but he might, who knows?
There are also many other problems when you look closely but i fear i have to stop writing at some point before this turns into a doom-wall-of-text. So, yeah, good video.
Thank you for writing, if you have more information and sources that goes deeper than this video please share.
Best wishes from Denmark👍
I like the video and appreciated your effort. You explained what really happens to the Turkish economy on the legal basis. But you skipped 2 crucial points. Turkish government actually still bribing the voters (or at least those has influence on voters like journalists, businessmen, local authorities and more) and Turkey has a huge black market backed by the government which makes things for us worse.
One more point. In order to sustain that bribing and black market, government collects deadly level of taxes from the middle class and qualified workers. Because of that, many qualified workers and smart brains leaving the country rapidly. And if you have no qualified workers, you cant develop export goods to sell.
Erdoğan yaklaşık 20 yıldır iktidarda ve son 5 yıldır fiyatlar %200-300 oranında yükseldi. Türkiye şu anda bütçesinin önemli bir kısmını savunma sanayisine yatırmakta. Uçak, bayraktar, gemi ve daha fazlası. Ekonomiyi yöneten iki devlet var ve bu hiçbir zaman değişmez. Birincisi ABD diperi İngiltere. Türkiye bundan 10 yıl önce çok mu gelişmişti de dolar 1.2₺ idi? Şimdi çok mu geriledi de dolar 18₺ oldu? İngiltere ve ABD'ye boyun eğmediğimiz için ekonomi şuan bu şekilde. Aynısı İran'da da oldu. Bunları anlamak okadar zor değil.
@@isaboyrek9090 yapmış olduğun açıklama yine bir işe yaramaz , kalkinabilecek bir güç bir deger yokken atar yapmanin ne faydasi var o halde
@@isaboyrek9090 haydaa öyle mi olmuş bak sen :)
What black market?
@@mtark9988 turkey is literally center of hard drug trade in europe now. Drugs produced in afghanistan, pakistan and other middle eastern countries are shipped to europe from Turkey. Turkish government literally support this trade.
Video production quality is going up! I really like the maps and the simplified literal basket examples... Although at instances such as 2:30 it would be good to hear two lines as to WHY the Lira is no longer a good store of value or unit of account. Saying "obviously" didn't help me understand... Keep it up through! I'm a long time subscriber.
Thanks for introducing us to @Into Europe. Very kind thing to do. I subscribed to you both.
Buradan hayatta kalmış tüm otobotlara sesleniyorum. Kardeşlerim biz burdayız. Türkiye de , siz nerdeyseniz cagirin biz de hayatta kalabilelim 😅
Ahahxösksjd kardeşim çok iyi bir yorumdu 😃
It's very strange to have different sectors of the economy use different currencies, definitely didn't appear in first year uni lectures!
Wait till you start work. Lol. If get a high profile job you'll how the world really operates. It's a sad world.
@@louvendran7273 Actually its a happy world. My boss is a CPO and he doesn't know anything about tech nor business. He just happens to be CEO's friend.
Great content! I am currently visiting Turkey and feel really bad for the Turkish people, at least the ones who don't support that dictator
As Turkish people we dont have any sympathy for them either.
Why? If they actually believe in the government and they have their reasons, everyone has a right to their opinion.
@@Handle0108 you're not Turkish, are you?
@@ayush885 no, why is that relevant? The people who made this video aren’t aswell.
@@Handle0108 because all the Turkish people I meet speak against Erdogan, and most of the non Turkish, extremely religious muslims praise Erdogan as the one who is trying to establish their Caliphate.
Respect for The first foreign youtuber to write the name of our country correctly
Başkaları bile bizim paramız hakkında kafa yorarken bazılarının bunu görmeyi istememesi
Two quality videos are definitely welcomed and appreciated! Love you bro, you're the best economics channel out there!
Thank goodness someone did and honest assessment.
I am glad you wrote not interest rates. The general media and TH-cam channels are so surface level. Jumping about interest rates all the times as if all is fixable with just one action.
Thanks you found a new subscriber. 👍🏽
Overall excellent video. Just a minor correction. Property prices lost value against foreign currency for only a short period of time. After that property prices skyrocketed due to excessive demand and low supply. Interest rates lower than inflation rate contributed to increasing demand for property.
it makes no sense if you try to increase interest rates equal inflation if inflation really high. covid and then russia-ukrania war messed up lot of things specially covid hurt turism and supply chain,production
1 yüz yıl sonra türkiye: türkiyemi? türkiye ne?
a turkish lira is 0.054 dollar now.. i guess it didnt work. also the ''factories'' you said isnt here anymore. government sold those a long time ago.
Great episode! I wish governments paid more attention to the laws of physics. Any physicist will tell you that doom-risk comes from force, which in turn comes from acceleration. Sudden shifts, like any step function imply massive acceleration, i.e. great force. And any action causes an equal and opposite reaction. So... suddenly decide to remove all controls on the Lira and total free enterprise? (Or, suddenly clamp down and control your economy completely...) In either case, sudden big steps will cause massive fluctuations (like pulling a string on a guitar).
Planning was never our strenght. We have always gone where the wind would take us. This is the result
@@exosproudmamabear558 Live like there's no tomorrow. ;-) Well, it certainly isn't just Turkey. I think this happens all the time when politics mixes with economic planning. After all, politicians score points when they promise "radical" (read: step-shaped) change. Aside from just plain old corruption, it's in their interest to appear to throw caution to the wind and to apply instant fixes. It's actually interesting and positive to learn (from this video) that Turkey is also trying to apply measures of a more gradual and feasible nature.
K. I. S. S. Corruption and Crony Capitalism is far simpler.
Government only care about their people akp , you cannot speak about them for example if you talk negative things about them , you can find yourself next day at a jail .
You need to compare the development done in these 10 years in Turkiye and Europe despite the currency liquidation.
Also to find out that which country got the guts to reduce the interest rate.
Great video. I loved the ominous synth music at 16:45
Thank you for explaining this situation because from the outside, Erdogan lowering interest rates as the lira is depreciating seems like the actions of a madman.
Elhamdülillah elhamdülillah 🇹🇷🇹🇷Erdoğan büyük lider
Emeğinize sağlık. Türkiye nin hâlini güzel bir şekilde özetlemişsiniz.
Hello Joeri, your videos are so much informing for me as a new graduate international trade and finance student, and all the analysis of yours about Turkey is actually totally correct just like in your all other videos, except the reason for Dollarization in the country. For the case of too dollarization in Turkey is mostly caused by our trade activities, not by our choices to borrow money from foreign banks with less interest rates. Actually we don't even have that easy reach to foreiner banks to borrow since we are still not a total EU member. So, the dollarization in Turkey is mostly caused by the trade activities in which Turkish businesses like to operate in foreign currencies such as Dollar, and Euro with their foreign business partners which is more stable and forecastable, because Turkish Lira is not predictable just like you said. So, most of the debts in dollar are those debts our companies owe to foreign companies because of the trade activities.
Another important point is just like you've pointed out Turkey's export is more than its import in terms of manufacturing products, but the key point is Turkey is really dependent on its energy needs and this need breaks the balance on current account. And I would like to point out Erdogan is a totally irrational leader in a nutshell. Your thoughts honestly are much much deeper than many Turkish eceonomist and feels like you live in this country thank you for your contribution.
Nice explanation 🤗
I Really enjoyed watching the video!
You enjoyed but we are very sad. :(
You have given a very good explanation, thank you, because the ignorance in our country is on the line, the people are chasing a very wrong policy.
As a local person, I can tell that it's really scary that a dollar costed us about 8 and a half liras less than a year ago.
now i want you to compare the number of homelessness, crime rate, suicide rate, sexual harassment, depression, cleanliness, easy access, birht rate etc between Turkey vs developed countries
this number can show the happiest country
@@selaluoposisisiapapunpresi7982 could you elaborate what you mean?
@@frogmomentwhat i mean what? i just want him to know which country is happier
@@selaluoposisisiapapunpresi7982 I asked you to elaborate on what you mean by your previous comment and how does this relate to Turkey's economic crisis.And what do you mean by which country is happier?
@@frogmoment *I asked you to elaborate on what you mean by your previous comment and how does this relate to Turkey's economic crisis* its means that the government doing in the right decision, the economic crisis is not only happen in Turkey, so he should be greateful,,
*And what do you mean by which country is happier?* are you a troll?
Even though I didn't understand some of what you said, this shed light on the questions in my head.
turkey is in a really bankrupt situation because we still do not bring any innovation to the economy, if we could produce our own energy and not need external procurement
my life become is better than now
im also live in turkey
*tüm detaylarını açıklamış enflasyon olsun ekonomi olsun her konuya değinilmiş*
I remember how happy everyone was when i paid with euros in Turkey. So sad seeing these people pay for the choices of their elites. 🇬🇷🤝🇹🇷
Yeyy peacee 🇹🇷❤️🇬🇷 :)
🇹🇷♥️🇬🇷
Bro i dont have to say i know but
ignore the Erdoğan we love every country and peace and pride in our blood. Some directors can say what ever they want
i dont care 🙏🏻
@@ventrandir facts
Come on, go here greek here there will be no bread for you
You don't mess with my country over the economy
You look at your own country's foreign debt
You breathe with European funds
Everyone knows your purpose, but you won't make it, we may come suddenly one night. 💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪🇹🇷💪💪🇹🇷
I love you man you actually changed the title from Turkey's to Türkiye's ❤️🇹🇷
We all know that how to save Lira's value but the government doesn't believe in economic rules
bro, thank you for doing true news. Unfortunately we need it.
You give much wider knowledge than what I get from various news outlets.
Very good channel! What I like the most is that it doesn't pick an explanation it likes. It gives all of them.
Awesome video as always. I am employing people in Turkey and is paying in EUR. Have been really easy to find qualified work but I think that might soon change if the lira takes a another direction. Following the situation with vested interested. Would have been interesting to learn how this crisis is similar to the tiger economies in the 90’ and how billionaires was able to interfere in with their monetary policies. Maybe there’s some degree of that here also?
Hi, let me know if you are looking for more employees
would you hire me?
@@koyhayatm8791 yazık...
@@evrenunal3644 yazık olan ne?
@@sadeceenes99 yazık değil
Great video!
By any chance would you be interested in making a video about the Irish economy? Another case of foreign investment having an overly large role in economic development, and some interesting parallels to draw between Ireland and the Netherlands.
Keep up the amazing work
Absolutely. You know.... I know Stephen Kinsella. Have you heard of him? I might interview him about it sometimes.
@@MoneyMacro I'm quite sure I've seen his newspaper column! Jim Stewart has also covered it extensively over the past decades
Hey Joeri. If you wont do a video on the Eurozone, how about doing one on the real exchange rate adjustment and internal devaluation and critique it as a failure of neoclassical theory. I would ask UE but he is probably to busy playing video games.
@@PoliticalEconomy101 I feel like the issue of lowering domestic demand during a recession has been explored enough already, so I can understand why he hasn't looked at internal devaluation in a whole video
It doesnt sound like you know what it is kid. And no it hasnt
The real basket inflation index is around 300%. Minimum wage in Turkey raised nearly 200%. Government printing money. Brand new car prices are 4 to 6 times higher than 2019. House rent is unpayable in most major cities for locals. 1 Mcdonald's Big Mac menu is nearly 6 hours of work for mininum wagers. 350 grams of baby food is a full day work for a low pay job, an 800 gram version of that is a full day work for a public school teacher. What a lovely decade to live as a young turkish entrepreneur in his 30s... We are basically trying to survive.
It's sad, that people in Turkey are not capable of comprehending the effort the government's putting in to increase the wealth of the future generations. The government is like in the video said, working on it's energy dependence, but the own citizens are not really understanding, that the process of getting wealthy takes time.
The sponsor Masterworks seems like a scam business. I know that content creators should not have to be put into the position of criticizing their sponsors but this one seems like a grift.
Great video otherwise.
Whenever people talk about wanting to be next Japan or S. Korea most often than not they forgot to mention "external factors" which help their export grows exponentially.
1. Japan and S. Korea have ASEAN, a market with 500m population. unlike EU they dont care much about quality.
2. Japan and S. Korea are in friendly terms with ASEAN. They dont antagonized their neighbours unlike Turkey under Erdogan.
3. In return ASEAN leaders are friendly to Japan and S. Korea. They never enact over-protection policy unlike EU who trying to mask their protection by going on environmental narrative and such.
Japanese don't care about quality
Wow first time I heard it
I thought quality management was invented in Japan.
Amazing words. Thank you. Eu doesn't want to update custom union with Turkey because it Will benefit Turkey much more than EU even though it Will benefit EU as well.. Walkswagen cancelled their investment in Turkey just because of politics.
2:17 Please don't throw anything with ATATÜRK picture on it again.
???
NZ is fortunate. We have strong exports but, our imports out pace especially with high property lending to off shore banks.
NZ has a similar problem, we need to keep more money inside our economy while continuing to export strongly.
Our greatest threat is a drop in demand from China, in particular.
I'm doing MBA here from Turkey. And things are really costly here! Price are on hike.
Hi, there seems to be a few misconceptions. 1) The lira did not start its downfall with either the pandemic or the ukraine war. It started long before those circa 2013, due to political instability, a slide towards economic unorthodoxy and an autocratic regime. This decreased Turkey's credit ratings and made it harder to finance the trade gap. When coupled with low interest rates, it turned in to a vicious cyle of devaluation and inflation. Of course, property-based growth model contributed to the trade gap, but this is already well understood and a mainstream view among economists studying Turkey. It is called "betona para gömmek", which translates to "burying money in to concrete", which is a slogan used by the opposition to criticize the incumbent party's decades-long economic model. 2) Actually, houses prices in Turkey has not dropped in USD, it increased +30% in USD, even with monetary thightening by the Fed. This is due to capital controlls imposed by the government. There are some really wacky instutuions put in place now that makes Turkey a great labarotory in terms of monetary theory. For example, all exporters need to exchange at least halfof their foreign currency income in to Turkish lira, they are greatly encouraed to invest in property, because they are not allowed to take TRY credits if they hold above a certain amount of dollars, and ofc no one wants to hold TRY but needs it for short term liquidity, no one wants to invest, what firms with net profit do, they buy properties. Or another example, individuals pay a much less interest rate for buying houses if they are to convert some capital for financing the purchase from USD to TRY.
you forgot the syrian civil war? lol
What about the 2008 financiar crisis, is not autocracy, Spain ,Italy ,Greece,Portugal ,France ,Uk are all indebted .
So the money printing in Turkey (M1 rose by 500% in the last 5 years) does not have an impact?
An effective De-Dollarisation would mean to outlaw foreign currency in some form. This in turn would have quite dire consequences for its tourism and other export industries as this would deal a major blow to foreign investors.
A better solution would be to shrink government spending and thus the money printing, what would normalise inflation.
It has been almost never be the case of printing money. That money does not circulate freely in the economy so the effects on cpi is very low. Also it is so funny to me you make it such a deal to de dollarize the economy so you can say "cut the spending?!?!?"
Cutting spending is not a good thing for an economy Especially in the long run.
The example of south korea, china and (and to a lesser extent) japan shows us this is the case. What the govenrment actually needs to do is tho grow certain sectors by supporting them financially (as was the case for china and south korea) and make them export-ready.
But believe in what you want to believe. Dont let these facts stop you to believe in conservative bullshit my man.
So all this highly corrupt government has to do is . . . Stop being corrupt, and everything will be fine. It seems so easy, for an outsider, but why would the government decide to live within its means, when it hasn't for years ?
How does outlawing affect tourism? Any dollar from tourism goes to the central bank not people's banks since they have to convert to the local currency before they can spend, right?
@@jameskamotho7513 No real effect on tourism, the tourists will just have to get local money from the government representative, before buying stuff. This is how they do it in Venezuela, since all things must be priced in bolivars, theoretically, although there is a black market as well.
as a turkish belgian i salute you sir, you have summed it up pretty nicely without too much political bias . great work keep it up!
nasıl bir önyargı knk
The reason for this dollar increase in Turkey is the decrease in the interest rate. Although it seems to be to the detriment of Turkey in the short run, it has contributed significantly to the increase of Turkey's defense industry and exports in the long run.

Burası makarna koktu. Midem bulandı amk
Hmm, I think you have to factor in what the "real" interest rate is. If the inflation is 80% and interest rates are 30% then people in debt are fed "free" money over time, especially if they can invest that in inflation proof assets. That is not a good thing, if speculators are so profitable then a country's economy will become riddled with speculation with the purpose of extracting "free money" rather than concerned with producing anything sensible as such, and the consequence is that a country will have no legs to stand on, no solid industrial foundation which which to rely upon in tough times. It is a LONG term problem and inflation is a very short term solution that will only come back to bite harder and harder and it will bite the common man hardest of all.
Hi. Тhis was a great video. If inflation rates were raised in accordance with the IMF's suggetions how long do you think it would take to start to see inflation go down? immediate? 6 months? 1 year?
Dalga konusu olmak gurur verici olsa gerek
en azından bir şeyi becermişiz...
Great analysis devoid of sensationalism as always, Prof. Do keep up!
Elin yabancıları bile anladıda bizim gerizekalı dayılar bir türlü anlamadı.
Unfortunately.
Even CB is completely enforced by politician’s orders, so there is no targeting about TR’s currency
Such a good and clear video ! I finally got the real answer on why I had to buy a new phone or pay a tax for using my european phone in turkey. I think they desactivate the IMEI after six months, you have the choice to pay an new one from turkey or pay a tax that is the same price as a second hand phone. This is just an example of course.
I'm suscribing.
I can't believe I found an objective analysis that wasn't motivated clearly by a political bias like every single video about Turkey on youtube
Thank you for this video! I'm Turkish and I was one of those looking at this issue surface-level. Now I see that increasing the interest rates is not the solution.
no increasing the interest rate is solution for inflation. no other way fix inflation. faiz oranlarını arttırmadan enflasyonu düşürmenin yolu yok eleman bunu söylememiş ayrıca bu sadece küçük biri amerika bile faiz arttırıyor pakistan bile arttırıyor
@@kingfranses hee anladim simdi. tesekkurler anatdin icin.
faiz artırmak geçici çözüm diyor kalıcı çözüm için ihracatın ve üretimin artması gerektiğinden bahsetti çin, japonya ve güney koredeki ekonomi modeline benzer şekilde
@@turtlepeak6130 yav türkiye sence japonya güney kore modelimi 5 mütahite tüm parayı veriyor halk aç fakirleşti buınların mantıgı yanlıs faiz arttırnıca gelen sıcak parayla üretim için fabrika kurması lazım bunlar onu kimsenin geçmediği paralı yol köprüler yaptıgı hiç paraları boşa harcadılar buda fayda sağlamadı artı faiz arttırmadan enflasyonu düşürmenin bir yolu yok araştırabilirsin.
@@kingfranses
Lan pinpon topu ,
Kaç defa faiz artırdı FED !!!
Neden hala enflasyonu düşmüyor ?!!!
I'm a Turk and I live in Turkey, but we can't even explain this bad economy we live to our own citizens, they don't understand.
oil barrel price dropped, but 1 liter of gasoline is 25 Turkish liras
+ whats your name
- açım
+ Nice too meet you açım
Ağlanacak halimize gülmemize mi güleyim, bu adamın bunları Türkiye'de söylese ceza alacağına mı güleyim?
ceza almaz siz sorunlumusunuz ya
hakaret felan yokki
@@whispz2590 sansür yasasını hemen mi unuttun yoksa bir aktroll müsün?
@@seeokcr sansur yasasiyla ne alakasi var bu adam normal degerlendirme yapmis yalan iftira propaganda yokki
@@whispz2590 sansür yasası sosyal medyadaki herşeyi ilgilendiriyor kardeşim.
Bir de pandemi zamanında karşılıksız para basan ve şimdi onları piyasadan toplamak için faizi yükselten bunun sonucu yatırımların durup işsizliğin tavan yapması yani resesyona düşeceği ve büyük halk hareketleri beklenen ABD ve AB için video hazırlar mısınız?
😁 resesyona girse ne olur adamlardaki 1 şirketin değeri senin 500 şirketinin değerinden fazla komik olmayın be kardeşim. Biz önce kendi halimize aglayalim herkes kendi ne halde biliyor.
@@arzz08 her şirket nakit akışında bıçak sırtında olur. Bir hata koca şirketleri batırır.
ABD askerî, siyasi gücü ile yıllarca bütçe açığını hırsızlık(suni güvenlik kaygıları ile yüzlerce milyar dolarlık silah satışı, IMF'nin dünya milletlerini yalancı ihtiyaçlar ile borçlandırması ve dünyaya mal satmanın birinci şartı doları almak için her devletin verdiği en az %10-15 faiz haracı) ile diğer milletlerinin hazinesinden karşıladı.
Artık ne tek askerî güç ne de mutlak siyasi hakim.
Demek kral çıplak olduğu herkes biliyor.
O ilah/devlet gördüğün ABD'de 2008 krizinde yüz yıllık şirketler battı.
Sermaye birikiminin ve üretim gücünün doğuya kayması ile sert ABD gücü jöle kıvamına döndü. Bir sıcaklık görse suya dönüşüp akıp gidecek.
Erdogan has not dolar problem, For the Turkey, we have the Erdogan problem ...
Adam hakkımızda bilimsel araştırma yapmış
As a Turk, I agree 100% with the accuracy of this.
Videonun sonuna kadar kalbim kaldırmadı please don't hit anymore bro we are human too...
Thank God AKtrolls don't know English =) lucky you. When we decrease the interest rates the inflation will decrease as well, eventually, at some point, maybe, hope so =)
Senin bunu çeviriden yazman dışında sıkıntı yok
@@berkaytr8654 ahahahahah I am not a native speaker, however I know English as much as I can tell my trouble, chill bro
Adam psikopat halkını sefalete sürüklüyor zevk alıyor. Faizlerle otnuyor
Unfortunately I can speak English better than you as an Aktroll. 😘
@@herneyse11 👏👏👏
Başka ülkelerden bile birinin bizi düşünmesi
Cok seviyolar sizi inglizler almanlar amerikalilar fakirlik cekmenize cok uzuluyolar
Biz ülkemizdeki dayılara evet dayılar yaşlı başlı dayılara bunu bir türlü anlatamadık çünkü onlar her şeyi kendi zamanlarındaki gibi sanıyor bu yüzdende bizim her şeyden şikayetçi olduğumuzu sölüyorlar oysaki onlar günlerinin çoğunu kahvehanelerde akranlarıyla konuşup günün geri kalan kısmındada Facebook ta kızlara bakıp yada komik olmayan postlara gülerek geçiriyorlar
I love how respectful and objective you are. Found your channel today and subscribed instantly. Keep the hard work 👏🏻
Thank you for your kind words. Very happy to have you as a new subscriber.
@@MoneyMacro aww ❤️
Yapmamız gereken tek şey üretim ve dışa bağımlılığı azaltmak ama yapılmıyor ne yazık ki.
Bir ingiliz gibi yazmışsın kanka özür mesajını sil bence.
@@STEV_YANK seni mi kıracağım al sildim
@@metehanylmaz6261 Şimdiye kadar Türkiye de üretim yapılamadı ki
@@Emircan_67 arastir türkiye hangi ürünleri dışarıdan alıyor üretimi neden yok. 40 adet fabrika satıldı ayrıca kapatılan fabrikalardan haberdarsindir umarım.
Kocaman toprak var ama hepsi boş avrupada fabrikadan yer kalmadı tükiyede çöll gibiiiii degerini bilen yok