OMG, I'm just listening to this now! I love the pushback, but Chris (!) open thy eyes! We all agree that the media's number one goal is to generate clicks and not to paint a clear picture of complex situations / topics. The incentives are just unhealthy for the entire media landscape. Now Chris said a few things that drive me nuts here. I love listening to you two so please receive the following in a friendly tone. I love arguing with friends so this is not an attack on anyone, it's just my personality. 1. Chris says that Bungie missed revenue projections (key word PROJECTIONS) by 45%. I don't believe the media is lying. However, how many different revenue projections are in place at Bungie? I suspect a game as expensive as Destiny 2 probably has multiple revenue projections measuring different goals. Optimistic targets, expected targets, worst case scenario targets etc... A huge red flag went off for me when the media didn't dive further into specifics. Why wouldn't they add key context to illustrate how terrible this number was? Hmmmm... Now because I'm a nerd and I love talking about this, I averaged the monthly Steam CCU numbers from 2023, where Bungie missed projections by 45%, and compared it to their 2022 numbers. Here's the yearly averages... 2023: 64.67k CCU 2022: 64.91k CCU I believe Bungie had high projections for 2023, but the story wasn't that revenue dropped 45%, only that they missed PROJECTIONS by 45%. Business philosophy often encourages lofty goals to inspire solid, if smaller growth. 2. Chris says that Microsoft passed on buying Bungie because "They saw a high burn rate risk for the studio, which means in english, they saw Bungie was spending more money than they could make back." That's actually not correct. A high burn rate risk means the studio is spending a lot of money. It does not mean the studio is losing money. There's a GDC interview in 2022 when a Destiny 2 General Manager tells someone in the audience that "Destiny 2 is currently the most profitable it has ever been in its current state". The Microsoft passing on Bungie story also ignores the fact that Microsoft had a list of over 100 studios they considered buying, which came out during the FTC trial. Again, the media omits the list of 100 developers because it needs to paint a more dramatic picture for us to click on the story. 3. Chris says "I'm of the opinion that Jim Ryan got fired". - You do not fire an employee and let them work at your company for another 6 months. - You do not fire an employee and throw parties for them with their faces on cookies. - You do not let a fired employee sign massive deals with NCSOFT and take press photos with said employee. 4. Chris says that Pete Parsons knew the wheels were about to fall off in 2023 and that PlayStation didn't. However, if we look at the public player data, it doesn't appear that the wheels fell off. Lightfall was the best month in Destiny 2 history. The Final Shape was the 2nd best month in Destiny 2 history. There was only a miniscule player drop off from 2022 to 2023. 5. You guys also mentioned the story of a former Bungie employee saying Bungie faced insolvency without the PlayStation purchase. Media literacy 101 teaches you do not trust anonymous sources. This "well connected employee" (IGN) could be a former janitor, could be a Q and A tester, could be someone who developed schizophrenia for all we know. Liars and charlatans love using anonymous sources because they know the story can't be checked up on for validity. When a story lacks specificity, put your red flags up. I'm obsessed with this stuff because games media spread the Bungie brain drain narrative a few years back. "All the big talent left Bungie. They went to the Marathon team. Bungie is being run by suits, Destiny 2 is cooked etc..." The result of all that was The Final Shape, which is arguably the most well received piece of Destiny content in franchise history. Gentlemen, I will leave you with a Denzel Washington quote... "If you don't read the newspaper you're uniformed. If you do read the newspaper you're misinformed."
OMG, I'm just listening to this now! I love the pushback, but Chris (!) open thy eyes!
We all agree that the media's number one goal is to generate clicks and not to paint a clear picture of complex situations / topics. The incentives are just unhealthy for the entire media landscape.
Now Chris said a few things that drive me nuts here. I love listening to you two so please receive the following in a friendly tone. I love arguing with friends so this is not an attack on anyone, it's just my personality.
1. Chris says that Bungie missed revenue projections (key word PROJECTIONS) by 45%. I don't believe the media is lying. However, how many different revenue projections are in place at Bungie? I suspect a game as expensive as Destiny 2 probably has multiple revenue projections measuring different goals. Optimistic targets, expected targets, worst case scenario targets etc... A huge red flag went off for me when the media didn't dive further into specifics. Why wouldn't they add key context to illustrate how terrible this number was? Hmmmm...
Now because I'm a nerd and I love talking about this, I averaged the monthly Steam CCU numbers from 2023, where Bungie missed projections by 45%, and compared it to their 2022 numbers. Here's the yearly averages...
2023: 64.67k CCU
2022: 64.91k CCU
I believe Bungie had high projections for 2023, but the story wasn't that revenue dropped 45%, only that they missed PROJECTIONS by 45%. Business philosophy often encourages lofty goals to inspire solid, if smaller growth.
2. Chris says that Microsoft passed on buying Bungie because "They saw a high burn rate risk for the studio, which means in english, they saw Bungie was spending more money than they could make back."
That's actually not correct. A high burn rate risk means the studio is spending a lot of money. It does not mean the studio is losing money. There's a GDC interview in 2022 when a Destiny 2 General Manager tells someone in the audience that "Destiny 2 is currently the most profitable it has ever been in its current state". The Microsoft passing on Bungie story also ignores the fact that Microsoft had a list of over 100 studios they considered buying, which came out during the FTC trial. Again, the media omits the list of 100 developers because it needs to paint a more dramatic picture for us to click on the story.
3. Chris says "I'm of the opinion that Jim Ryan got fired".
- You do not fire an employee and let them work at your company for another 6 months.
- You do not fire an employee and throw parties for them with their faces on cookies.
- You do not let a fired employee sign massive deals with NCSOFT and take press photos with said employee.
4. Chris says that Pete Parsons knew the wheels were about to fall off in 2023 and that PlayStation didn't. However, if we look at the public player data, it doesn't appear that the wheels fell off. Lightfall was the best month in Destiny 2 history. The Final Shape was the 2nd best month in Destiny 2 history. There was only a miniscule player drop off from 2022 to 2023.
5. You guys also mentioned the story of a former Bungie employee saying Bungie faced insolvency without the PlayStation purchase. Media literacy 101 teaches you do not trust anonymous sources. This "well connected employee" (IGN) could be a former janitor, could be a Q and A tester, could be someone who developed schizophrenia for all we know. Liars and charlatans love using anonymous sources because they know the story can't be checked up on for validity. When a story lacks specificity, put your red flags up.
I'm obsessed with this stuff because games media spread the Bungie brain drain narrative a few years back. "All the big talent left Bungie. They went to the Marathon team. Bungie is being run by suits, Destiny 2 is cooked etc..." The result of all that was The Final Shape, which is arguably the most well received piece of Destiny content in franchise history.
Gentlemen, I will leave you with a Denzel Washington quote... "If you don't read the newspaper you're uniformed. If you do read the newspaper you're misinformed."