The Data Points That Will Explain The 2024 Election | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 มิ.ย. 2024
- What is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more than a dozen experts - pollsters, political scientists, data journalists - and asked them this one question. Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. Galen and his guests cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break them, and the importance of "double haters," voters who have negative opinions of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
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Why are there Republican and Democratic pollsters? Like, as a pollster, why do you need to be affiliated with a party when your job seems like it should be pretty data-driven and non-political?
Well half iof them work for the MSM and the other half grifts of the GOP.
Good question I’m curious too
Need money to do the poll and that’s who wants the info.
Your thinking that polling is non-political is cute, in the sense of toddlers saying nonsense is amusing. Depending on how you frame the question you can enormously swing the data that you can then process using standard techniques. But even more, what questions that you ask and what you don't ask is the essence of politics.
@@richdobbs6595alrighty then don’t use those weird partisan bias people then we don’t want them
Glad to see Harry back.
"Not whether the economy is doing well, but whether they perceive the economy is doing well for them"
Maybe the people who are declaring from on high "the economy is doing well" aren't weighting their metrics, or even tracking the same metrics, that normal people are.
You’re confused on what “the economy” means. It’s not referencing your personal finance or even household finance generally. The unemployment rate, inflation rate, business activity (like revenue and profits), and stock market indexes indicate how GDP is doing. Just because a lot of money is changing hands doesn’t mean you see any of it. My point is the economy can be truly doing well even when “regular people” are not. If they’re not doing well, they will likely perceive the economy is doing poorly even if it isn’t. Fair enough, but that’s just misunderstanding the “economy”.
@@chemquests I think we might be quibbling about semantics here.
Per-capita income, median per-capita income, median per-capita income vs. housing prices, wage growth vs. consumer price inflation (without the cheat of swapping out "equivalent products"), are also aspects of "the economy". They're the aspects of the economy that regular people see more often.
I'm old enough to remember when Housing Starts were a major economic metric. You don't hear much about that anymore.
I think it's called "Goodhart's Law" -- once something becomes known as a metric for tracking some slightly nebulous good thing, whoever is being judged by that metric is going to maximize that metric, even to the detriment of the good thing the metric is supposed to track.
We have the additional confounding factor here, that the "there is no truth but power" types are busy creating metrics (and sometimes, data) out of whole cloth, to make themselves look good.
People can tell the difference, though. It's why free markets (i.e., voting with your dollar) are so critical, along with free speech and free elections.
THAT is where information about what's _really_ going on for real people comes into the system.
And it's why Trump is probably going to win. =)
@@chemquests Looks like TH-cam decided to eat my original post. Ah well, let me summarize - I think we're arguing semantics here.
Some measures of how the economy is doing -- median per-capita income growth, especially compared to median housing prices or the consumer price index (leaving aside sleight-of-hand like "substituting equivalent goods"), are a lot more informative than just flat-headed "number go up" analysis of GDP.
It's down to Goodhart's Law -- once a any metric is established to measure performance of some semi-nebulous good, scrutinized performers will game the metric even to the detriment of the good supposedly being pursued.
This is why Biden's going to lose. He's surrounded by a) ideologues who believe "there is no truth but power" and that statistics are there to be gamed, if not flat-out fabricated; also b) the opinions of voters can be ignored in favor of the tinkerings of bureaucrats.
Voters don't like either of those. Unless the votes themselves are fabricated, Biden doesn't have a chance -- and even then, there's going to be a lot of people scrutinizing this election, unlike 2020.
@@jimluebke3869 I was making a comment on economics not politics. I’ll accept your economic point but flatly reject your political opinion. All sorts of people game the economic metrics including republicans. Not everyone votes with economics as their top concern. Many people are far more concerned about preserving democracy by voting against an insurrectionist.
@@chemquests "Preserving democracy" involves putting unelected, unaccountable, authoritarian bureaucrats in their place, so that the people running the country are the ones we've actually voted for. That will involve firing most of the Federal bureaucracy, at this point.
As far as "insurrectionism" goes -- the idea that a bunch of 2A fanatics were committing an "insurrection" and _they forgot to bring their guns along_ is so far outside the realm of reality, I'm surprised you can function in this world while believing it.
The J6 narrative is pure, pure bulls**t, and you should be embarrassed you believe it.
I have the same feeling about 2024 as I did about 2016 and 2020. Though I didn't want Trump to win in 2016 I had a feeling he was going to win. In 2020, I didn't support Biden in the primary but felt Biden was going to win. Now all the momentum is on Trump's side I still feel like Biden can pull out a close win due to voters who stay home, disgruntled anti Trump Republicans and independents, suburban voters and Democratic urban turnout in crucial states.
Wonderful coverage. A lot of energy required to get to the election.
34:18 Galen, I appreciate you saying that you didn't get a video from these people who just sent audio clips, but its not really necessary, we good. we get it.
It’s not age , it’s the decline of your capacity and abilities mentally and physically
Mark Twain said when asked who he was voting for answered, "I never vote for; I always vote against."
Okay, you know who Mark Twain was?
One vote.
People don't want either of them, people think both of them are two old. Lots of Democrats think that. More Republicans however say that Biden is too old, but Trump who is 3 years younger is fine. Those numbers would matter if there were other viable choices, but there aren't. So if those are the candidates these numbers won't matter. Democrats may not want Biden, but a lot of them would crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. Also if Trump supporters are hoping that more people don't care and hope they stay home. That did work against Hillary who was unpopular, but more people now know Trump and Trump only won by a tiny margin in three states in 2016. Plus now there are text messages reminding people to go vote. I really think Republicans need to start campaigning on policy not Biden's unpopularity. And I disagree about the guy talking about workers. I am pretty sure labor unions think Biden can deliver more. Though the Hispanic vote has been more Republican, but I think that has to do with being more socially conservative.
I think of Job Approval rating between Ds and Rs like comparing apples to oranges. Republican voters divide up pretty well into a couple buckets. But the "democratic party" is and has been a coalition, not a monolith. So when you ask the question of Democrats, you get the approval ratings you'd expect from a coalition leader, not a party leader.
If Biden said he'd seriously consider resigning during his second term due to a shift in health (and phrase it that way. Don't mention a 25th amendment or any specific scenario in which the choice might be out of his hands entirely), would that assuage voters on the issue? I doubt it would for Trump, since his base doesn't want to think about anybody else. But I think Dems would be extremely amenable to this. Since they want him to beat Trump, but ultimately just need a pen in the oval office afterward.
He'd be resigning in favor of Harris, though, who is very unpopular. I think if he said that, it'd just bring the issue more to the forefront, to his disadvantage. Maybe if his vice president was somebody legitimately popular like Michelle Obama, then it'd work.
Agree, Harris is a liability
Vast majority of voters already think that he's going to be replaced my Kamala Harris part way through his term. This is actively hurting him because she's the only Democrat more unpopular than he is which I frankly don't even understand, because whilst personally I find her insufferable, if you're a low information voter she really shouldn't be seen as all that bad like she's a robot / nark but she's a pretty generic Democrat.
One big issue about candidate policy perception by electors is the external conditions: even if they know what the policies of one former or current president had for them, given different conditions for the two periods and different conditions for the future one, it's practically impossible to forecast what the effects will be. At the end it is just "I like more A's or B's policies and I hope that they will work better for what the future will bring us"
The age issue for this to me is not relivant as it is covered by a vary pertainent question any voter must ask no matter what.
Who is your vice president?
In case a president can not finish their term for any reason, that question must be asked.
Medicalmental, assasine, accedent, plane travel, illness, age. Covered
tRump in office, the country is desolved and the constitutional government goes away and political camps are filled.
An individual that states he will not and proves he never intends to follow their oath can never be trusted with anything.
I hope they bring back Nate!
He could plug his book, On the Edge: How Successful Gamblers and Risk-Takers Think, available wherever fine books are sold on 13 August.
I think there needs to be a little discussion about RFK Jr. I know it's early but how does he play in this discourse?
The fact that a person who for the first time in American history prevented a peaceful transfer of power to the next administration is allowed to run for president suggests we live in a failed state, so none of this matters. And the fact that so many Americans support such a person underscores it.
What can you call our current state of being? Can you explain that with logic and not your emotions?
Trump was still in office for two more weeks after Jan 6th, was he overthrowing himself….the narrative on the insurrection is pure BS.
I often ask myself the same question about voters supporting a fucking houseplant, but here we are.
Get over it.
There was a peaceful transfer of power. That happened on January 20, 2021, as scheduled.
January 6th was an insurrection-riot-mess, absolutely. But power was never NOT being transferred.
I’m not gonna pretend it wasn’t threatened. But misconstruing stuff on the left side of the aisle removes all moral superiority
@johnjohnson5930
Mike johnson is a house plant.
America is so screwed..We all F'ed.
Its not as bad as you fear. Regardless of who wins we are still a Democracy with separation of power. A Trump presidency mark 2 would be one of corruption and chaotic foreign policy. A Biden presidency would be more of what we seen now, incremental improvements, with a fairly boring administration. Trump did not stack the deck enough to form a dictatorship, he is too ignorant and does not have the necessary people in his corner to break the system. Caesar, the original dictator, had his friends in the senate bribe and assassinate political rivals and force through his populous policy and Caesar marched an army on the capital for good measure. Trump has none of those things and Biden does not want to.
16:41 I think this is brilliant. When I hear pundits talking about "voter enthusiasm" for biden, I kinda roll my eyes. It's like being enthused about going to work on a Saturday. Or as this guy says, taking out the trash. Just because you're not enthused about it, doesn't mean you won't do it.
There's a difference between those actions and voting, tho. People need to take out the trash and go to work. Voting is not something they have to do, so theres a greater chance of them skipping out. Not everyone sees the stakes the same way.
I'm surprised no one asked "would you like to have a 2028 election, or any election, ever again?" That's my biggest voting data point
Would you like to have an election.. huh. Yes, I would love to have the 2028 election in 2024! Yep.
This 👆 I think that this will be the first year that approval rating is not dispositive in whether a president gets reelected. When the question of whether you would rather reelect someone who may not be doing the greatest job or elect someone who tried to overthrow democracy the last time he was president and install himself as dictator for life, many people will choose the guy who preserves democracy despite not being the best president. I know personally, I would rather elect Joe Biden, as old and decrepit as he might be, than an egomaniac who is hellbent on staying in power forever, bringing along his loyal goonies who are willing to sell their souls to the devil.
@@Habib_Osmanthe point being if the 2024 election goes to tRump, There may not be a 2028.
@@JosephKano What planet are you from?
@@JosephKanothat is a bs left wing talking point quit falling for left wing propaganda
Well that was useless. These data points do not really matter. I'm not enthusiastic about Biden, but I'm going to vote for him. And the fitness for president is silly. Trump is profoundly unfit. Look instead at how many older voters died and how many people turned 18. Look at support for Biden among older voters in PA.
Simon Rosenberg gets it. The rest of these pollsters just dont seem to understand
I wonder how IVF bans will affect polling going forward.
The last 3 GOP presidents delivered a recession - is that what delivering on the economy means?
Is Harry Enten still looking for a girlfriend?
Right? Huge missed opportunity to label him a whiz kid in the chyron
The data points are the thirteen keys
We need mandatory voting like Australia
Actually, no. I've always detested that idea simply because, in my view, not voting is a form of voting.
How does mandatory voting work! What is the penalty. If you don’t vote?
"Double negative voters"
Considering the amount of social stigma there is among the high-and-mighty against Trump, you probably want to look into the prevalence of people just _saying_ they dislike Trump when they are at most neutral about him.
Age is just a number. Wisdom sounds better 💙🗣️
The most powerful job in the world, and we, the American Hiring Committee, are only allowed to interview two candidates. That is deeply flawed, and needs to change.
5th choice for double haters? Voting down ballot and issues but skipping President? Any data on whether that is a real thing people do or whether it's more of a theoretical possibility?
Yeah, nobody does that.
How many times in history did a presidential candidate who won his primary but was defeated in the general election win the presidency in a later election? I think Nixon did this, but anyone else?
There are a few people but they're much older so most likely not revelant but there are Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, William Henry Harrison, Grover Cleveland(the only non incumbent 2 termer). There are also many people who got to run on a ticket multiple times but didn't win.
@@darkrai24100 thanks for the info. Thomas Jefferson, interesting.
@st0ox yeah, he lost to John Adams in 1796 but would win 4yrs later in 1800
If Republicans are better for the economy, then why is the RNC broke?
Paying legal bills costs a lot of money
Bs Cases btw cause everyone knows without this bs nonsense u can't win without trying to rig it in some way. Hopefully Trump still beats your dementia guy and by big numbers Trump 24
They just brought in 65.5 million into the RNC btw
@jamiepaulzine6725 good for them. They only had $8 million at the beginning of the year, because of their cult leader, Trump.
538 - th-cam.com/video/S8jlymRjiO8/w-d-xo.htmlsi=T2tuhpc3P-fTXiHv
A vote for Biden will translate to a vote for VP Harris ... as his replacement.
Even if one granted your premise...
😂😂😂 The implication being...?
It would be BETTER to have an administration headed by Trump and filled with White Nationalists?
😂😂😂
This ain't the slam you think whether it comes from a "Both Sides" Proggy or a MAGA Goofball.
Cool.
Trump is not a spring chicken either so his VP pick could make or break his candidacy especially if he's convicted. Biden and Trump can only get 4 years plus the Democrats will most likely win the House. Biden would do better with divided Congress than Trump and there would be more incentive to compromise.
Just let in at the 13 keys to the White House. Why don't you ever just start with Lichtman? He's the most right. he's more right than you are
Overall, not looking good for Biden for now
It's still early. Let's see what the polls look like later this summer.
June-August can tell more details about his odds.
@@brucemacmillan9581 I hope it will get better, this time global democracy is on the ballot. I am so fking done with him
@@kevinw4267 Done with who?
Surrrrre sounds to me like Biden--and, therefore, America, The Constitution, Democracy, and the world--is pretty well totally f#@ked.
😂🤣
I'm disappointed that nbody spoke about third party candidates. I'm voting for RFK, Jr.
Why are these larpers auto playing on my TH-cam channel? I don't play dungeons and dragons
Non-polling data point having bearing on the Presidential Election:
Bibi's timing to the end of the Gaza incursion.
#2024Elections: Note 📝 to all voters 🗳️ this election 🗳️ is extremely important. What’s at stake in this election 🗳️ is quite simple the Future of America 🇺🇸 and The Next Generation. If y’all want a prosperous future for the next generation y’all will vote 🗳️ for new leadership
I really have a hard time taking any commentator seriously when they can't even hide their bias enough to talk about the Democratic Party instead of the Democrat Party.
Idk about anyone else but Biden could be a vegetable and I would vote for him over Trump.
Trump is going to start out with a base of 268 electoral college votes (all the states and Maine 2 he won in 2020 plus flipping Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada). Thus Biden, assuming he doesn't get replaced, would have to run the table on Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Virginia, Maine at-large, New Hampshire, Nebraska 2, etc. to win. A tie, 269-269, would go to Trump in the House. The odds don't look good for Biden.
The beautiful thing about the age issue is, you can measure it with time. How often do notable gaffes and age-related revelations (such as today's court statement on how Biden would be perceived by a jury) appear in coming weeks and months? The credibility of accusations of Biden being hidden by his team are another front.
What about Trump's very obvious gaffes and confusion? That counts for nothing?
This is so much geekery imo. Not many people pay much attention to politics this far in advance of an election. Let's see where things are later in the summer. Especially in the swing states.
I agree. I'm a lifelong Democrat but there are so many people who have no idea now.
I like Joe !😎
How about the 3rd option. The couch 🛋️. You have a narcissist criminal vs criminal with dementia. 😫😵💫💀
Its gonna be bad either way here sorry but i dont see much hope this election evem though im gonna vote but i dont want to argue with anyone
Joe Biden, the tortoise; Donald Trump, the hare.
go ask yourself and your co-pollsters: am I biased?
Hard to take all the data seriously 9 months ahead, much like predicting the weather. My observation is that Americans tend to favor stability, that would point to Biden
We are on the brink of WW3 under dementia joe and u call that stability LMAO
💖 'promo sm'
One is old and one is old and a criminal
I'm voting for biden
Vegetable votes for a vegetable
@@RedPolitics1776 when was the last time you saw Trump on a bike
@@kirikun5636That’s a dumb comeback 😂😂😂 Typical nimrod with absolutely no logic 🙄
@kirikun5636 what does falling off a bike have to do with memory and cognition?
@@candiceberg5232 biden is far more active than Trump
"Perception of the power of your vote matters"
Really? I'm surprised Biden has any support at all on this metric, because if you voted for Biden, you sure didn't vote for the guy who's actually in charge.
Didn't 538. Get 2016 wrong?st!fu!
Cherry-picked data
Advice of the Day: America 🇺🇸 we seriously need to consider getting new leadership. If y’all where living under a rock 🪨 and you didn’t read the document report then you should would know clearly that @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe has mental health problems and that should be a concern.
Dismissed.
@@rtraakored8960 Sleepy Joe is falling America
Voting president Biden 2024
This completely overlooks the neo-conservatives that will never vote for Trump. Media has overlooked this quiet demographic (which includes a huge portion of military veterans) that is politically homeless after they watched Trump destroy our 250+ year streak of peacefully transferring power.
Moved overseas, now I can laugh at the USA with the rest of the civilized countries
Biden’s physical fitness is not a concern to me because I like Kamala.
You like Kamala - so you are Ok with the USA failing ? 😂
What has she done nothing btw.
@@jamiepaulzine6725 odd way to ask a question…obviously you’re not really asking. Most people have trouble quoting the agenda of a vice president; you’d probably need to look up what pence did. I just said I like her, which isn’t the same as what’s she accomplished.
You're assuming that there would be an end to a second Trump term.
Pretty sure Vivek will be voted in after trump. Lol dont worrrrry😂
******TRUMP 2024**** FJB P.O.S
How are these polls conducted? There are so many variables that affect polling outcomes including how a question is asked, what areas of the country are polled, what media was used to reach out to poll responders, and even what time of day the poll was taken. 538 credibility would be more believable if it explained the deets of these polls. They have been proven wrong many, many times. Does 538 analyze the polls that fail to have any predictive value and do they eliminate those types of polls? Times/Siena College polls are conducted on samples of less than 100 people sometimes. Pew Research Center uses email to poll people and I can tell you that Gan Z and even Millennials do not look at their email and most have blocks on their phones. So the poll sample is limited to people who actually see the poll and care about responding to it. Not a representative sample IMHO.
#2024Elections: America 🇺🇸 we deserve a leader that will actually be there for the American 🇺🇸 People. We need a leader that will put America 🇺🇸 First. @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe is mentally and physically incapable of leading this country going forward.
Age is irrelevant here because Trump was incompetent at 30.
You are grasping at straws. Biden loses no matter what special interest group you bring in.
Goodbye country if trump wins
😂😂😂 Shouldn't you be looking for a waterproofer for your magnets?
One has assisted in a genocide. The other has not.
The other didn't get a chance.
I mean. The other participated in an insurrection.
They're both trash.
One will allow you to vote him out. The other won't.
What genocide? Are you talking about Israel-Palestine? Bc if so, you really should double check your comment and use the Internet to see how both of them have been supporting Israel. Trump is definitely a bigger supporter of Israel than Biden, look into what he did as president and what he's said and written in regards to the ongoing crisis.
@@no-barknoonan1335 Who cares? Biden pretends to be this friendly grandpa, meanwhile he is allowing a nation to commit the most gruesome crimes I have seen in my life. Should I really be angry with Trump for what Biden is currently doing?
@@skaldlouiscyphre2453Tell it to the Kurds and the people of Yemen.
Over the last year, Galen has brought us videos that said:
1) Colorado was obviously correct to remove Trump
2) Illegal immigration is actually really good
3) The economy is amazing
4) The temperature is going to rise 1.4 degrees over the next century and therefore we need to force people to move out of Florida asap
He’s really been an embarrassment
Which Galen are you talking about?
None of this is true except for maybe #3 which only recently happened because it is actually true
Which videos? Could you provide source, or are we doing "trust me bro" like you usually do in my fellow Repub circles?
@@no-barknoonan13351) What the Colorado ruling means for Trump (1 month ago)
2) Where the immigration debate stands today (8 months ago)
3) How Americans feel about the economy (7 days ago) AND Why Americans aren’t feeling ‘Bidenomics’ (July 2023)
4) How climate change will reshape where Americans live (May 2023)
Any more questions?
I am voting for RFK
The question is will Donald Trump be able to dictate from a prison cell in a suit that matches the color of his face
TRUMP 4 EVER FREEDOM USA
Age is irrelevant here because Trump was incompetent at 30.