@@warmonger2500 I have no doubt that there are CIA analysts looking at open source intelligence to help validate their own data and methodologies for more publicly visible stuff like this, and probably to get a more quantified idea of the information advantage they hold for other areas OSINT can't really peer into.
@@warmonger2500 CIA probably also has access to internal Russian documents, as well as much better satellite images. So actual CIA briefs would tell not only the real state of these bases, but also how much the Russian chain of command is lying to itself.
@@warmonger2500 You're almost certainly right. Just last year the CIA put out a recruitment notice looking for open source analysts, because getting information from all angles is the key to success.
@@bcde Snow accumulation would have to accumulate more in the hole where the turret was than on the rest of the tank, which isn't very realistic. Remember, we're doing an estimate here, so it never had to be perfect.
Pretty easy to make the satellite imagery lie. Just make a bunch of inflatable BMPs. Even coat them in tin foil to fake the infrared signature. Its a cat and mouse game since the first aerial observation balloons. Patton's ghost army in England was a great decoy in the D-day deception plan. You want to look strong where you are weak and weak where you are strong. Military intelligence is about the truth in spite of the enemy trying to conceal the truth and decieve you.
For free you get brain wash. 😅😅😅😅. Go and find critical thinking,that you lost. I’ll give you a hint, you probably left it somewhere in the gender study class. or it may have completely atrophied.
Using an artificially lit reference model to help in counting missing turrets via the positioning of shadows/contrast boundaries is pretty damn smart. Really emphasises that this work is not just about being able to pay for privately commissioned satellite imagery (as amazing as that is), it's also about how cleverly you can interpret the received data. Great work once again guys. Edit: Hate to admit it, but increasing the minimum order coverage from 1 to 5 square k's, while perhaps technically legitimate in terms of efficient tasking, is also a pretty Evil Genius way of discouraging "enthusiastic amateurs" from making requests for potentially sensitive imagery.
@IndustrisasiIndonesia Depends how many the west wants to send them. Short answer is as many as is needed as long as we have the will. Australia just upgraded its tank fleet so is sending their old M1A1s for example.
It was hard enough keeping my LAV up and running when I was driver/gunner/commander and that's as a crew. I couldn't imagine how many issues these last ones have. I suspect that's why so many bases are reaching a point where their numbers don't change. At that point it's just a spare parts yard.
Love these videos, keep them rolling.I also like the single base deeper dive format. Though rolling up periodically to totals for the whole of Russia like you do periodically is still needed.
Makes sense the reason why not covering all bases. But having an idea of the overall numbers was the reason why people follow your channel. So try to make a recap of the overall situation very now and then
Having both in-depth and summary videos is rather useful, I think. Each individual base deserves attention, and to get some background on its history and changes over time, while you also want to take a look at the bigger picture.
Two notes about this video: - Really clever that shadow method. - Love these individual analysis and why not have both? Deeper dives into each base and a "summary" video every trimester or something. Love your content
I enjoy your videos and also appreciate your work. The new idea with updating every base is much better and doesn't get rushed. It would be great if you could make updates like each 3 months from each base or something like that.
10 year old me in 1988 could never imagine being able to look at a video like this. We truly live in interesting tones where we can live feed war and use private satellites to keep track of everything. Great work!
"Whether it still shoots" is one thing, but "how good it is at shooting" is another. These old tanks have a _lot_ of problems compared to newer ones. Even if Russia slaps some optics onto them (which is by no means certain, given their issues sourcing good optics...), a lot of these tanks aren't going to have the accuracy needed to take advantage of them... in fact, to summarize: Less accurate means more tanks are needed to engage the same sized enemy force. Shorter range means the tanks are more likely to be hit when engaging. Less protected means the tanks are more likely to be disabled or destroyed when hit. Less survivable means the crew is more likely to sustain casualties when the tank is disabled or destroyed. These aren't the only problems with using half-century-old tanks in modern warfare. But they're the ones that are the biggest issue for Russia, I think. They've made this a grinding war of attrition, which relies on them being able to inflict... if not _more_ casualties than their opponent, then at least a small enough difference that their opponent runs out of resources first. But problems like the ones I highlighted above act as... perhaps "force divisors", to contrast with "force multipliers". They result in Russia sustaining greater losses for the same battlefield effect. Russia could probably sustain a loss rate several times Ukraine, at least in the medium term. But the danger for them is that all this is multiplicative rather than additive. If Russia keeps accepting tradeoffs that accelerate their loss rate moving forward by even a relatively small percentage each time... then at some point it winds up being unsustainable for them. I don't know for sure whether or not they've reached that point yet. But the fact that it's even a concern today is quite telling.
วันที่ผ่านมา
@@PhysicsGamer Great points not gonna lie but if i'm not wrong (could be) Russia itself isn't really using these tanks to engage other tanks or units directly, pretty sure they're just mobile artillery guns as many have stated before, the ones using them for assaults are the DNR/LNR (the ones you see destroyed on ORYX) since they lack Russian markings, and as for protection and accuracy, they do work on it, you see EW equipment, cages and such on most, which to be honest is as much as anyone can do since FPV drones tend to destroy anything after 1-2 repeated hits, accuracy no idea on that field you'll have to tell me more about it man, is it because the barrels getting older and rotting? do they not replace them or? would like to know
Given the proliferation of drone warfare I'm not sure how much a "mobile artillery gun" role would protect them. It's not like their guns have the sort of elevation or caliber they'd need in order to be especially far behind the line. As far as accuracy goes... yeah, part of it will be the age of the barrels on the old tanks. But that's mostly a consequence of a broader issue the Russian military seems to still be struggling with: sourcing high-quality barrel replacements. It's all well and good to be able to churn out a hundred thousand steel gun barrels, but without the exotic alloying additives that modern gun barrels have they're only going to last so long before degrading. Like, one or maybe two engagements sort of thing. Beyond that, though, the deeper consideration is more that the hulls were never designed to provide the kind of performance that's expected on a modern battlefield. Just to give an example, sadly without specific numbers but the point holds regardless: an M1A2 Abrams can pick out a target some distance away and drop a shell right on it first try every time. That distance would be a lot shorter for a T-72. Even just something as simple as the traverse bearings not being up to the same standard as a T-80 means that accuracy on the move will be considerably worse.
This kind of in-depth analysis and foot work is labor intensive. Kudos to you for a video packed full of gems. The 3d-modeling and the shadow analysis is fantastic.
They don't have any real storages, just active planes or parked inactive ones, all at airfields. The number of airfields is higher than the number of these storage facilities, with more shelters as a percentage, compared to the tank storages. Since many fly around a lot it's harder to say which plane parked where, and with satellite images you can't tell how many hours an airframe has flown. I agree that it would be really interesting, and valuable to Ukraine, it just does not sound feasible at the moment
Excellent work again, you and your friends that collaborate are the gold standard for vehicle numbers analysis. I definitely agree that the vast majority of the remaining vehicles are only fit for scrap or parting out otherwise, they would have been shipped to the front by now.
While the quality may be poor for many of these storage bases, the quantity of both the remaining and taken equipment is mind boggling. Meanwhile here in the USA, we dithered and delayed on sending a mere 31 Abrams, even though we have nearly 2500 in storage
Don't worry about the quality, it's fully cleaned of any components and only the armored hull remains which doesn't deteriorate, which then has internals installed
While yes, the cheapest part remains, there is a bottleneck in production. Producing high quality steel, laminating, and adding composites would limit the production a lot. Also, the us insisted on modified abrams, and that takes time.@@nikolaideianov5092
@nikolaideianov5092 hulls are literally the most expensive part, most countries don't even produce tank hulls anymore, last leclerc hull, last leopard hull were produced in 90-00s just for your knowledge, also textolite doesn't rust
@luciusartorius3437 bruh in the video you can see the rusted hulls T55s and bmps dont use textolite + are you trying to tell me that the engine, transmission ,gun, electronics are cheaper to make then a litteral metal box? (This is what all armored vehicles are in the emd, a metal box)
Last time I was this early Russia was considered a serious threat to western militaries. Edit: I managed to piss off the tankies and the bots Hallelujah
Well lets see, you take out USA out of Nato and just as Europe against them well, They have more personal , more arty and vehicles , now their soldiers and commanders gained combat experience in Ukraine, they have also adapted with Electronic warfare and their AA assets( you done see anymore bayraktar videos or any drones killing their AA systems), They have same military command command and they also speak the same language (compared to EU with many different militaries and commands and objectives and multi languages harder to command). Sure we got technology and training on our side , but they pretty much have everything else. I mean if USA starts doing "why get involved in that war " or "we got china to worry about" "Europeans didint put enough money in their defense why should American tax payer spend billions now" or any other political BS and doesn't come immediately to assist we would be in a very hard fight against russians unless they are stupid enough to engage Nato before finishing Ukraine. Currently I would say Ukrainian military is the strongest in Europe and they are barely holding them back.
One time I went with my family to see the Iraqi tank graveyard in Kuwait formed after the First Gulf War. It was pretty much like those close-up photos. Everything rusted or missing parts, not to mention having gaping holes from whatever killed the crew. Anyway, you being less than 4% off in your estimates is already very good. The 3D models are a brilliant idea. Overall great work!
Thanks. It is great to see the better images of the bases. Please continue! Since the video at the start of July, which I think found 700 tanks in decent condition and 1856 in poor condition, Ukraine have reported destroying around 1000 more tanks. I think the October losses from Ukraine support that Russia are having to fight with fewer tanks. The month of October saw the highest number of combat engagements, the highest losses of troops, equipment, APVs, vehicles, UAVs since the start of the war but fewer tanks losses than Sept 2024 and the 2nd fewest month since Sept 2023.
destroyed a 1000 more tanks?! Are russians painting their tanks in yellow and lining them up for the ukrainians to destroy? The official channels really think they are talking to fools!
We are seening considerably more videos of Russians retrieving damaged combat vehicles. They are presented as Ukrainian drone attacks, but the subtext is that Russians have needed to change how they view vehicles. The cold war perspective was informed by their WW2 experience: heavy losses were expected, but that massive numbers would still be overwhelming. Broken vehicles would just be left behind, along with the destroyed ones. There wasn't a point in building vehicles to operate for thousands of hours with careful maintenance. Instead they were built inexpensively, in large numbers, and meant to last decades with little attention.
The Russian lack of armoured vehicles is a clear trend visible for months. That's why they started sending people by foot, by Chinese motorbikes, golf carts... At the same time, Ukraine boosted its drone production. There are more Ukrainian drones in the sky than ever before.
Do a video on pre-T54 tanks in museums and deep storage and NK and Chinasourcing. T-34, T-44, T-26, IS-8/T-10. IS-3, IS-2, KV, BT Series, ISU-152, SU-100, 2A3 Kondensator, Object prototypes
Really great Information!!! I am a Gen X'er. I grew up hearing about spy satellites. Watching your break down of these images and seeing all the detail I feel like I am getting to see things I only dreamed of as a kid and young adult. I never thought I would get to see these things in my lifetime. Thank you so much!
hye man, just figured i'd give my two cents - these "one base per video" videos are great, if this is more fun for you, keep it up! love your work, and don't let complainers get to you
With Russia fast approaching 700,000 casualties, 9000+ tanks 18,000 armored personnel carriers, and 20,000 pieces of artillery lost in the attempt Putin's folly is a simply giant brutal disaster that is destroying Russia even more than Ukraine. Even if Russia managed to somehow win this war the spoils of Ukraine would not make up for what Putin has spent not only in Russian lives but the destruction of the Russian army and the Russian economy. When Ukraine eventually prevails (and they will) they will have the help of the west to recover from this war but Russia will have nothing. The next few decades in Russia will be extremely bleak even by Russian standards.
While I like the focus on individual bases, I think its also nice to see a country wide recap every once in a while. Less in dept, but a good general overview.
Thank you for the excellent work you and your associates achieve for us! I'm sure it takes a TON of time - even with your 3D model and software - which in itself must take a ton of time!
The fact that Russia is seriously utilizing these absolutely ancient vehicle hulls still boggles my mind. It's all well and good to pull a metal box with a gun out of storage and reactivate it - if it shoots and protects its occupants from at least small arms and grenades then it's probably plenty worthwhile in an absolute sense. But these old tanks have a _lot_ of problems compared to newer ones. Even if Russia slaps some optics onto them (which is by no means certain, given their issues sourcing good optics...), a lot of these tanks aren't going to have the accuracy needed to take advantage of them... in fact, to summarize: Less accurate means more tanks are needed to engage the same sized enemy force. Shorter range means the tanks are more likely to be hit when engaging. Less protected means the tanks are more likely to be disabled or destroyed when hit. Less survivable means the crew is more likely to sustain casualties when the tank is disabled or destroyed. These aren't the only problems with using half-century-old tanks in modern warfare. Poor communication equipment, high spare part consumption, low mobility, etc. But these specific problems really illustrate the cascading series of dilemmas Russia is facing. They've made this a grinding war of attrition, which relies on them being able to inflict... if not _more_ losses than their opponent, then at least a small enough difference that their opponent runs out of resources first. Problems like the ones I highlighted above act as, perhaps, "force divisors" to contrast with "force multipliers". They result in Russia sustaining greater losses for the same battlefield effect. Russia could probably sustain a loss rate several times Ukraine, at least in the medium term. But the danger for them is that all this is multiplicative rather than additive. If Russia keeps accepting tradeoffs that accelerate their loss rate moving forward by even a relatively small percentage each time... then at some point it winds up being unsustainable for them. I don't know for sure whether or not they've reached that point yet. But the fact that it's even a concern today is quite telling.
I appreciate your work. With the base by base videos, I suggest adding a country wide tally based on the last counts of the individual bases. I suspect I am not alone in watching mainly to see how much longer Russia can keep going. Keep up the good work.
If the outside of the BMP's look like that then the inside equipment and motor is going to be completely ruined. All hoses and belts and whatever else must be completely wilted. These are pure scrap, they won't run again.
All motors are removed. It is just an empty hull with some wires. You clean it up and re wire everything followed by making any upgrades. Essentially re manufacturing it.
I remember one base where he did that, noting buildings that had holes in the roofs showing nothing inside, as well as pictures on social media showing them empty or filled, giving a grand total of 200 possible extra tanks iirc. I think he also looked at snow remaining on top of the roof indicating nothing happening inside at all Several bases don't really have garages or just a handful, so at the moment the best guess is: Not much compared to the total number
Covert Cabal out here doing an intelligence agency’s work. I hope it frees them up to do other work rather than just allowing them to screw around while you all do the real work!
First: They need space for new golf courses, that´s the main reason for clearing the storages. Second: What about counting electric vehicles in california? That would be really interesting.
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Probably my favourite youtuber at the moment. Were basically getting CIA briefs for free. Please continue what you do its amazing
I'm willing to bet the CIA checks their numbers with his.
@@warmonger2500 I have no doubt that there are CIA analysts looking at open source intelligence to help validate their own data and methodologies for more publicly visible stuff like this, and probably to get a more quantified idea of the information advantage they hold for other areas OSINT can't really peer into.
*My same exact thought! it's like you are for a free ride in Langley. ;)*
@@warmonger2500 CIA probably also has access to internal Russian documents, as well as much better satellite images. So actual CIA briefs would tell not only the real state of these bases, but also how much the Russian chain of command is lying to itself.
@@warmonger2500 You're almost certainly right.
Just last year the CIA put out a recruitment notice looking for open source analysts, because getting information from all angles is the key to success.
pretty smart about the shadows
@@bcde Snow accumulation would have to accumulate more in the hole where the turret was than on the rest of the tank, which isn't very realistic. Remember, we're doing an estimate here, so it never had to be perfect.
Pretty easy to make the satellite imagery lie. Just make a bunch of inflatable BMPs. Even coat them in tin foil to fake the infrared signature. Its a cat and mouse game since the first aerial observation balloons. Patton's ghost army in England was a great decoy in the D-day deception plan. You want to look strong where you are weak and weak where you are strong. Military intelligence is about the truth in spite of the enemy trying to conceal the truth and decieve you.
"Pretty smart" bro he literally took a look at the obvious
@@derrickstorm6976 the best tricks seem obvious in hindsight
For free you get brain wash. 😅😅😅😅. Go and find critical thinking,that you lost. I’ll give you a hint, you probably left it somewhere in the gender study class. or it may have completely atrophied.
Using an artificially lit reference model to help in counting missing turrets via the positioning of shadows/contrast boundaries is pretty damn smart. Really emphasises that this work is not just about being able to pay for privately commissioned satellite imagery (as amazing as that is), it's also about how cleverly you can interpret the received data. Great work once again guys.
Edit: Hate to admit it, but increasing the minimum order coverage from 1 to 5 square k's, while perhaps technically legitimate in terms of efficient tasking, is also a pretty Evil Genius way of discouraging "enthusiastic amateurs" from making requests for potentially sensitive imagery.
I prefer this focus on individual bases - gives some real depth to the information.
I like the individual base model as well
yea real indepth coping for ya to suck on LMAAO
The 3D models are a great way of documenting too, makes changes really easy to track
How many Ukraine tank left
@IndustrisasiIndonesia Depends how many the west wants to send them. Short answer is as many as is needed as long as we have the will.
Australia just upgraded its tank fleet so is sending their old M1A1s for example.
Thanks a lot! I really admire your diligence: counting newer images, recounting old ones, keeping track of all of them, this is huge amount of work.
Love your work covert
Thanks for the 3 likes 🥹
Indeed. Covert Cabal and his contributors do an amazing job.
Here before the Russian bots try and shit on this comment LOL
@@PapaProtein150 likes 🥵
Covert content is extraordinary to me
Thats mr Cabal to you 😂
Rust , corrosion , wasted wiring , ruined electrical systems , junk barrels , locked - up & worn out
Diesel engines - mold - rats - hydraulic systems that couldn’t hold your beer 🍺 oil leaks ,
Fungus - bums , homeless gang - thieves … It’s a complete joke !
come now! we arent talking about your daily beater here....
No, we’re talking about my daily driver car.
It was hard enough keeping my LAV up and running when I was driver/gunner/commander and that's as a crew. I couldn't imagine how many issues these last ones have. I suspect that's why so many bases are reaching a point where their numbers don't change. At that point it's just a spare parts yard.
It doesn't look like a joke on the battlefield thou...
This feels like lyrics to a song, something like "We Didn't Start The Fire".
These more in depth reports about each storage base are so cool, to see the process of your work and way more in depth detail of your work!
Love these videos, keep them rolling.I also like the single base deeper dive format. Though rolling up periodically to totals for the whole of Russia like you do periodically is still needed.
Fantastic and exciting work. Those "trends over time" you mention would be great to see per base and as a whole.
What he said
I just discovered this channel earlier today and honestly its so freaking fascinating. Keep up the good work!
thanks for continuing this series, the retrospective is especially useful for seeing the more recent changes
Makes sense the reason why not covering all bases.
But having an idea of the overall numbers was the reason why people follow your channel. So try to make a recap of the overall situation very now and then
Having both in-depth and summary videos is rather useful, I think. Each individual base deserves attention, and to get some background on its history and changes over time, while you also want to take a look at the bigger picture.
Wow, another Covert Cabal video. This process is my favorite! Thanks for doing this!
Two notes about this video:
- Really clever that shadow method.
- Love these individual analysis and why not have both? Deeper dives into each base and a "summary" video every trimester or something.
Love your content
Simply fantastic work you do. So much effort, but result is just great!
I enjoy your videos and also appreciate your work. The new idea with updating every base is much better and doesn't get rushed. It would be great if you could make updates like each 3 months from each base or something like that.
Hi Covert Cabal! Here's one for the algorithm.
Wow! The quality of your work is jaw-dropping.
10 year old me in 1988 could never imagine being able to look at a video like this. We truly live in interesting tones where we can live feed war and use private satellites to keep track of everything. Great work!
The quality and depth of your analysis work is 2nd to none, Perun would buy you beers on the basis of this
Ah, the Rainman of storage facilities is back with a new video
Wow that 3D model is amazing. You are doing great work.
I cant believe how they still use those old tanks!
I was baffled too, but you start to understand that it's not about the age but whether it still shoots, you won't use a gun to kill a fly
Oldies but goodies. A tank it's a tank, you can always rob a bank 😂😅😂😅
"Whether it still shoots" is one thing, but "how good it is at shooting" is another. These old tanks have a _lot_ of problems compared to newer ones. Even if Russia slaps some optics onto them (which is by no means certain, given their issues sourcing good optics...), a lot of these tanks aren't going to have the accuracy needed to take advantage of them... in fact, to summarize:
Less accurate means more tanks are needed to engage the same sized enemy force.
Shorter range means the tanks are more likely to be hit when engaging.
Less protected means the tanks are more likely to be disabled or destroyed when hit.
Less survivable means the crew is more likely to sustain casualties when the tank is disabled or destroyed.
These aren't the only problems with using half-century-old tanks in modern warfare. But they're the ones that are the biggest issue for Russia, I think. They've made this a grinding war of attrition, which relies on them being able to inflict... if not _more_ casualties than their opponent, then at least a small enough difference that their opponent runs out of resources first.
But problems like the ones I highlighted above act as... perhaps "force divisors", to contrast with "force multipliers". They result in Russia sustaining greater losses for the same battlefield effect.
Russia could probably sustain a loss rate several times Ukraine, at least in the medium term. But the danger for them is that all this is multiplicative rather than additive. If Russia keeps accepting tradeoffs that accelerate their loss rate moving forward by even a relatively small percentage each time... then at some point it winds up being unsustainable for them.
I don't know for sure whether or not they've reached that point yet. But the fact that it's even a concern today is quite telling.
@@PhysicsGamer Great points not gonna lie but if i'm not wrong (could be) Russia itself isn't really using these tanks to engage other tanks or units directly, pretty sure they're just mobile artillery guns as many have stated before, the ones using them for assaults are the DNR/LNR (the ones you see destroyed on ORYX) since they lack Russian markings, and as for protection and accuracy, they do work on it, you see EW equipment, cages and such on most, which to be honest is as much as anyone can do since FPV drones tend to destroy anything after 1-2 repeated hits, accuracy no idea on that field you'll have to tell me more about it man, is it because the barrels getting older and rotting? do they not replace them or? would like to know
Given the proliferation of drone warfare I'm not sure how much a "mobile artillery gun" role would protect them. It's not like their guns have the sort of elevation or caliber they'd need in order to be especially far behind the line.
As far as accuracy goes... yeah, part of it will be the age of the barrels on the old tanks. But that's mostly a consequence of a broader issue the Russian military seems to still be struggling with: sourcing high-quality barrel replacements. It's all well and good to be able to churn out a hundred thousand steel gun barrels, but without the exotic alloying additives that modern gun barrels have they're only going to last so long before degrading. Like, one or maybe two engagements sort of thing.
Beyond that, though, the deeper consideration is more that the hulls were never designed to provide the kind of performance that's expected on a modern battlefield.
Just to give an example, sadly without specific numbers but the point holds regardless: an M1A2 Abrams can pick out a target some distance away and drop a shell right on it first try every time. That distance would be a lot shorter for a T-72.
Even just something as simple as the traverse bearings not being up to the same standard as a T-80 means that accuracy on the move will be considerably worse.
I was just thinking about this channel 15 minutes ago. And now a new video. Perfect!
This kind of in-depth analysis and foot work is labor intensive. Kudos to you for a video packed full of gems. The 3d-modeling and the shadow analysis is fantastic.
You guys really are super professional. Thanks for the great work and videos.
Thanks so much for all your hard work
Any chance for a video on Russia's airforce? How much they've got left, the flight hours on each frame and the 'maximum', etc.
They don't have any real storages, just active planes or parked inactive ones, all at airfields. The number of airfields is higher than the number of these storage facilities, with more shelters as a percentage, compared to the tank storages. Since many fly around a lot it's harder to say which plane parked where, and with satellite images you can't tell how many hours an airframe has flown.
I agree that it would be really interesting, and valuable to Ukraine, it just does not sound feasible at the moment
I love these base stock count videos! Keep them coming. 🎉
Thanks mate!
Your in-depth analysis is of amazing quality. Thank you!
Excellent work again, you and your friends that collaborate are the gold standard for vehicle numbers analysis. I definitely agree that the vast majority of the remaining vehicles are only fit for scrap or parting out otherwise, they would have been shipped to the front by now.
While the quality may be poor for many of these storage bases, the quantity of both the remaining and taken equipment is mind boggling. Meanwhile here in the USA, we dithered and delayed on sending a mere 31 Abrams, even though we have nearly 2500 in storage
Don't worry about the quality, it's fully cleaned of any components and only the armored hull remains which doesn't deteriorate, which then has internals installed
@@luciusartorius3437 sooo
The litteral cheapest part is what remains?
(Also yes rust matters on the hulls)
While yes, the cheapest part remains, there is a bottleneck in production. Producing high quality steel, laminating, and adding composites would limit the production a lot.
Also, the us insisted on modified abrams, and that takes time.@@nikolaideianov5092
@nikolaideianov5092 hulls are literally the most expensive part, most countries don't even produce tank hulls anymore, last leclerc hull, last leopard hull were produced in 90-00s just for your knowledge, also textolite doesn't rust
@luciusartorius3437 bruh in the video you can see the rusted hulls
T55s and bmps dont use textolite
+ are you trying to tell me that the engine, transmission ,gun, electronics are cheaper to make then a litteral metal box?
(This is what all armored vehicles are in the emd, a metal box)
Last time I was this early Russia was considered a serious threat to western militaries.
Edit: I managed to piss off the tankies and the bots Hallelujah
Did they have TH-cam 40 years ago 🤨
They can be a serious nuisance even if they can't technically win a war against us. And their propeaganda is controlling MAGA which is bad enough.
It still is, while also somehow a joke too. The contradictions are wild
i mean, if 30+ countries gotta make an alliance to fight 1 country then it is
Well lets see, you take out USA out of Nato and just as Europe against them well, They have more personal , more arty and vehicles , now their soldiers and commanders gained combat experience in Ukraine, they have also adapted with Electronic warfare and their AA assets( you done see anymore bayraktar videos or any drones killing their AA systems), They have same military command command and they also speak the same language (compared to EU with many different militaries and commands and objectives and multi languages harder to command). Sure we got technology and training on our side , but they pretty much have everything else. I mean if USA starts doing "why get involved in that war " or "we got china to worry about" "Europeans didint put enough money in their defense why should American tax payer spend billions now" or any other political BS and doesn't come immediately to assist we would be in a very hard fight against russians unless they are stupid enough to engage Nato before finishing Ukraine. Currently I would say Ukrainian military is the strongest in Europe and they are barely holding them back.
I wait for your videos to come out more than any other TH-camr, amazing work, keep it up mate ❤
Another fantastic video. Thank you for all the time and effort you put into your research.
these BMPs look straight out of Chernobyl lol
One time I went with my family to see the Iraqi tank graveyard in Kuwait formed after the First Gulf War. It was pretty much like those close-up photos. Everything rusted or missing parts, not to mention having gaping holes from whatever killed the crew.
Anyway, you being less than 4% off in your estimates is already very good. The 3D models are a brilliant idea. Overall great work!
Thanks for the details
I prefer for you to do both: deep dive into individual base and a big picture summary 👍
Both are good info 👍 thanks
Amazing piece of work. Congratulations.
Great video. Wish we had this cappability during the cold wars, in the 70s
Excellent analysis!
The analysis here is top notch! 3-D modelling is icing on the cake!!
Great video. well done
Insane. You just do really valuable research and share it with everyone? Blessed
Thanks. It is great to see the better images of the bases. Please continue!
Since the video at the start of July, which I think found 700 tanks in decent condition and 1856 in poor condition, Ukraine have reported destroying around 1000 more tanks.
I think the October losses from Ukraine support that Russia are having to fight with fewer tanks. The month of October saw the highest number of combat engagements, the highest losses of troops, equipment, APVs, vehicles, UAVs since the start of the war but fewer tanks losses than Sept 2024 and the 2nd fewest month since Sept 2023.
destroyed a 1000 more tanks?! Are russians painting their tanks in yellow and lining them up for the ukrainians to destroy? The official channels really think they are talking to fools!
We are seening considerably more videos of Russians retrieving damaged combat vehicles. They are presented as Ukrainian drone attacks, but the subtext is that Russians have needed to change how they view vehicles.
The cold war perspective was informed by their WW2 experience: heavy losses were expected, but that massive numbers would still be overwhelming. Broken vehicles would just be left behind, along with the destroyed ones. There wasn't a point in building vehicles to operate for thousands of hours with careful maintenance. Instead they were built inexpensively, in large numbers, and meant to last decades with little attention.
The Russian lack of armoured vehicles is a clear trend visible for months. That's why they started sending people by foot, by Chinese motorbikes, golf carts... At the same time, Ukraine boosted its drone production. There are more Ukrainian drones in the sky than ever before.
Thanks for your work, Covert. Shoutout from Ukraine.
Do a video on pre-T54 tanks in museums and deep storage and NK and Chinasourcing. T-34, T-44, T-26, IS-8/T-10. IS-3, IS-2, KV, BT Series, ISU-152, SU-100, 2A3 Kondensator, Object prototypes
Really great Information!!! I am a Gen X'er. I grew up hearing about spy satellites. Watching your break down of these images and seeing all the detail I feel like I am getting to see things I only dreamed of as a kid and young adult. I never thought I would get to see these things in my lifetime. Thank you so much!
Thank you for doing these.
Great work with the simulation and shadows! Very cool.
Solid data, as usual. Thanks.
I love the 3 D model of the Storage Base! Great Job 👍
May I suggest on your 3d model. Colouring the tanks. Red= Junk, Yellow=fixable and green=okay.
hye man, just figured i'd give my two cents - these "one base per video" videos are great, if this is more fun for you, keep it up! love your work, and don't let complainers get to you
Excellent work! Crazy, detailed work.
Excellent work, as always
Amazing work, smart idea about using shadows. Would’ve never thought of that!
Nice work. russia is really beginning to get low on old hardware.
Finally it will be replaced by new models :) Russian factories are working 24/7 in 3 shifts and new ones are under construction.
Making room for new, more badass stuff.
Ruxxia has to be feeling this war in the worst way. 👌
They are taking serious losses
With Russia fast approaching 700,000 casualties, 9000+ tanks 18,000 armored personnel carriers, and 20,000 pieces of artillery lost in the attempt Putin's folly is a simply giant brutal disaster that is destroying Russia even more than Ukraine.
Even if Russia managed to somehow win this war the spoils of Ukraine would not make up for what Putin has spent not only in Russian lives but the destruction of the Russian army and the Russian economy.
When Ukraine eventually prevails (and they will) they will have the help of the west to recover from this war but Russia will have nothing. The next few decades in Russia will be extremely bleak even by Russian standards.
20 seconds ago is crazy ! 😮
Nice analysis..well done
While I like the focus on individual bases, I think its also nice to see a country wide recap every once in a while. Less in dept, but a good general overview.
Appreciate the work!
Bro, the layout at 5:18 would make a sick CoD map.
Thank you for the amazing work!
Great work! Keep it up.
Thank you for the excellent work you and your associates achieve for us!
I'm sure it takes a TON of time - even with your 3D model and software - which in itself must take a ton of time!
The shadows via digital modeling is very impressive for OSINT. Bravo!
Fantastic thanks again
Amazing work once again.
Got to admit, clever use of modeling software!
Excellent work. It would be neat to do a video on the naval or aerial assets, although probably more difficult as they move around.
The fact that Russia is seriously utilizing these absolutely ancient vehicle hulls still boggles my mind. It's all well and good to pull a metal box with a gun out of storage and reactivate it - if it shoots and protects its occupants from at least small arms and grenades then it's probably plenty worthwhile in an absolute sense. But these old tanks have a _lot_ of problems compared to newer ones. Even if Russia slaps some optics onto them (which is by no means certain, given their issues sourcing good optics...), a lot of these tanks aren't going to have the accuracy needed to take advantage of them... in fact, to summarize:
Less accurate means more tanks are needed to engage the same sized enemy force.
Shorter range means the tanks are more likely to be hit when engaging.
Less protected means the tanks are more likely to be disabled or destroyed when hit.
Less survivable means the crew is more likely to sustain casualties when the tank is disabled or destroyed.
These aren't the only problems with using half-century-old tanks in modern warfare. Poor communication equipment, high spare part consumption, low mobility, etc. But these specific problems really illustrate the cascading series of dilemmas Russia is facing. They've made this a grinding war of attrition, which relies on them being able to inflict... if not _more_ losses than their opponent, then at least a small enough difference that their opponent runs out of resources first.
Problems like the ones I highlighted above act as, perhaps, "force divisors" to contrast with "force multipliers". They result in Russia sustaining greater losses for the same battlefield effect.
Russia could probably sustain a loss rate several times Ukraine, at least in the medium term. But the danger for them is that all this is multiplicative rather than additive. If Russia keeps accepting tradeoffs that accelerate their loss rate moving forward by even a relatively small percentage each time... then at some point it winds up being unsustainable for them.
I don't know for sure whether or not they've reached that point yet. But the fact that it's even a concern today is quite telling.
Great stuff guys! Thank you 😊
I appreciate your work. With the base by base videos, I suggest adding a country wide tally based on the last counts of the individual bases. I suspect I am not alone in watching mainly to see how much longer Russia can keep going. Keep up the good work.
Man this work is so valuable.
Love your work, thank you!
If the outside of the BMP's look like that then the inside equipment and motor is going to be completely ruined. All hoses and belts and whatever else must be completely wilted. These are pure scrap, they won't run again.
non-mechanical people dont take that into account. water in the wiring, rodents, not to mention the havoc that a frozen winter plays.
All motors are removed. It is just an empty hull with some wires.
You clean it up and re wire everything followed by making any upgrades.
Essentially re manufacturing it.
Mr Cabal!
Welcome back!
We missed you...
I much prefer these long deep dives into each individual base. The 3d models are especially good
Outstanding as always!
In depth is super, thanks
Assigning feelings to military bases is wildly entertaining to me
Loving the 3D models! Thanks for the video
I prefer your 1 base analysis, thanks...
Would love to see the potential number of tanks for each base in those storage sheds.
I remember one base where he did that, noting buildings that had holes in the roofs showing nothing inside, as well as pictures on social media showing them empty or filled, giving a grand total of 200 possible extra tanks iirc. I think he also looked at snow remaining on top of the roof indicating nothing happening inside at all
Several bases don't really have garages or just a handful, so at the moment the best guess is: Not much compared to the total number
Well done!
Thanks!
I'm sure leaving vehicles out in the open without maintenance for decades will do wonders for performance.
Thank you for the hard work!
Covert Cabal out here doing an intelligence agency’s work. I hope it frees them up to do other work rather than just allowing them to screw around while you all do the real work!
Militaries should really hire these guys, amazing analysis.
The russians are smarter than i thought... they're blowing off the turrets BEFORE going into battle.
It really would increase the surviveability if they removed the turrets. They can't aim the gun for s#+t anyhow.
turret toss competitions lol
@@slartybarfastb3648 Turtle tanks rarely have functional guns. Without a functional gun, they don't need a turret.
@@mskiptrwon handidly by challenger 2 rust bucket
Awesome job! Thank you very much!!!
Nice imaging. Intelligent reporting.
They will sing song and tell stories for decades of the Ukrainian fighters.
There are entire countries who wish their intelligence agencies did work of this quality level.
great work guys!!
First: They need space for new golf courses, that´s the main reason for clearing the storages. Second: What about counting electric vehicles in california? That would be really interesting.