@@MarcoFerranteWatches Listen I’m actually a business owner not a muppet employee, record sales mean absolutely nothing and is very misleading. Net profits is what actually matters young kid. Watch dealers are unloading their inventory for record losses therefore that’s why sales are up, not to mention all those crypto kids are trying to sell there watches back because crypto crashed. Everyone is trying to sell there watches back flooding the market it’s a buyers market right now kid and prices are continuing to drop. Stop misleading your viewers by saying you have record sales as if that somehow equates to record profits it doesn’t kid. Sell that dream to all those suckers who bought overpriced watches from you and are now trying to sell them back to you, and you telling them you’ll give them half of what they purchased it for from you.🤣🤣🤣
This discussion format with Adrian and Marco talking specific brands and models is fantastic. I would love to see follow on segments focusing on other models within brands. For example, Patek Philippe complications. I look forward to the upcoming Rolex video.
Thanks Danny! Glad you enjoyed this, it was super eye opening to actually see how far the market has come. Definitely would be great to analyze more watches from these brands in the near future. Stay tuned as the Rolex and RM video is also great! 😁🙌
Everyone forgets up until 2016 you could virtually walk into an AD and buy what you wanted out of the window sometimes at discount. There has been six years of hype, and not the hype is deflating. In the UK you just can’t wear expensive watches due to theft. All the buyers that used to pay the hype prices have lost interest now and that affects the market.
UK is just one market and certainly doesn't reflect global demand. People are still very much buying watches perhaps just not in the same quantity as before. But that doesn't mean the growth experienced will be lost forever. All asset markets are correcting so if we're really treating watches as a commodity, I think it's fair to assume prices will eventually bounce back as other markets do also 👍
2:10 I do not agree, on chrono24 if the starting price is often excessive, the price at which the watch is sold (revalued price) corresponds to the market price.
Chrono24 is not the greatest reference point for pricing data in complete honesty as they are a pricing aggregator so they just average out all listings of specific models
Adrian, could you clarify your pricing examples. LB used to sell only wholesale and now is selling retail. Were you using retail pricing in all of your average yearly pricing?
I can tell you as I'm the one who compiled the numbers from Adrian. I'd say 98% of the numbers used for this are retail sales, the other 2-3% at most would be wholesale if I felt there wasn't enough data to make the category filled with enough data to make the analysis strong enough. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
This is flawed analysis to compare the top performing watches to the S&P 500. You would have to compare the prices of a broader group of watches to the S&P. If I got to cherry-pick a stock say Apple it went from $24 to $150 since 2016. That is a 35% annualized return and that is not even at the high of $180. Microsoft went from $52 to $250 which is a 30% annualized return. It is interesting that you covered the price history, but the comparison to stocks is very deceptive.
This is actually a very fair criticism. Main reason I used the S&P500 as a point of comparison as it's probably the most followed index and just because it's somewhat easy to compare to, but definitely fair that it is flawed to compare one model to an index as opposed to an individual stock. It's not really meant to be a straight comparison like oh look watches are outperforming the S&P it's more so just add a point of comparison than anything because I feel if you're talking growth of anything you need something to compare it to 👍
Not pitching as investments however you make repeated comparisons to the S&P and ave. ROI... Even with using your sales data, it is easy to show stats in different ways to represent a desired outcome. For example, yr to yr figures may show a current uptrend for some watches whereas the mth to mth will suggest differently. Number of sales per period will show the market interest. Adding net present value to the mix will normalise the ROI outlook against yearly inflation. Moreover the biggest factor of all... buy price Vs sell price. If someone took what you are saying on face value and "bought-in" a watch, then when you talk about returns (even if you conversely say watches aren't investments), these are unrealised returns until sold. So when they come to sell, the offer received from the likes of yourselves would be 15-20%(?) less than market price.. That is ofcourse not mentioned and should be if you want to talk about a subject like this in a transparent way (as you are intending to do in this video).. it is a fundamental factor! Honestly, not sure about this suggestive content about the market, it's a fine line. It is also off-putting from your normal great content. Stick to the grey market shows and watch talks 👍. Watches are for wearing and enjoying 😉.
A lot to unpack here I will break it down so as best to answer this.. 1. Not meant to be suggestive content at all really. Not trying to pitch watches as investments on the contrary we just want to give people important market information so that they can make the most informed decision possible. That's why we wanted to provide this analysis was more so to contradict this whole doom and gloom where pricing charts only show decline in 6 months rather than showing how far they've come in the last 6 years. Perspective in any down market is important and there is a clear lack of it in most pricing charts floating around on the internet. 2. The analysis could've been done any number of ways. The point was more to showcase average growth over time. This was the easiest and most succint way for us to show growth in price over time because again this isn't meant to be a quarterly analysis but rather simply to showcase growth over the last 6-7 years. Prices for 2022 as mentioned in the article are slightly skewed as we don't have the months of November and December 2022 as this analysis was done in early November. Nonetheless pleased with how it turned out. 3. The buy price and sell price doesn't have much to factor in as we are only analyzing sale price. If we have to include buy price for every model this would have turned from a near 1 hour video to a 10 hour video. Plus the average industry margin is about 10% .. if you want to be conservative call it 12%, so can subtract this from sale prices. Again I don't see much utility to this as the analysis wasn't meant to showcase buy/sell but rather growth in price over time. Us using sale prices as indicator is just the best metric to use to determine a watch's market price at any given point because a watch is only really worth what someone else is willing to pay. Hope this explanation makes sense and you at the very least enjoyed this video or got something of value from it 😁🙌
Great explanation. I've seen it first hand with my uncle who's a watch dealer dealing in less expensive brands and even he says the only way to earn money in this business is to keep everything moving.
I hate when people talk about watches and compare their price increases to stock market performance. These are time-keeping devices susceptible to sudden changes in demand and have no underlying value other than the cost of parts used. Stocks have entire corporations behind them actively working to increase the share price.
I mean what other reference point would you use? That was really the reference point most people use as when prices in the watch market started falling..
I think some of the meteoric rise in values in some of the watches is that people started to learn more about watches and when people understood more about them, it became clear what was truly special, and what was just normal.
Tough to say as I've seen these a little all over the place. Think they are now settling around the $180,000 mark but don't quote me on that. Brand new release so trading well above retail as expected of course 😁🙌
Hard to say for certain as no one has a crystal ball. The point of the analysis wasn't to pitch watches as investments. It was really to provide full context to people and actually show how far prices have come over a period that makes far more sense to analyze, ie. 6-7 years instead of 6 months which most doom and gloom graphs people share are analyzing. I think the watch market is still extremely bright especially given the fact that watches have more exposure than ever and the hunger for watches is still very much alive 😁🙌
Why don't you reference 2020 first? Because that's when the watch market boomed. There were more buyers, more sellers and more transaction. The demand surge suddenly made accessible watches inaccessible. Which explains the corresponding price surge. Talk about that market as a starting point for investment and then talk about where we are in 2022. How are trading volumes? People are stuck with hype pieces, dealers have difficulty moving inventory today etc...
A 3 year pricing analysis is simply far too short. The point was to showcase growth over a longer period of time. The whole discussion surrounding watches as investments started also before 2022. Trading volumes are great and picking back up and have since the last few months. We are back to doing our monthly averages despite the dip in the market. There are still many buyers out there especially as prices become more attractive on the buy side 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches THe watches you picked as an example are for people who were already into watches before the boom. Of course all their purchases are now ahead. But the bulk of the market participants today are here buying up the hype pieces are not long time collectors. They paid the premium. They are left wondering if they hold onto the 15202 at 85k today is there upside based on the 3 yr price, not the 5 yr or more price. Coz 5 yrs ago they were not even in the market for it.
Great Episode Marco and Adrian. Watches are bought to be enjoyed. If it goes up that's a bonus. Can't wait for the next one. Lots of love from Australia. Abs.
Thank you! No doubt watches are and should remain a passion based hobby even though it's always fun to do an analysis like this to see how far watches have come 😁🙌
Marco, you and Adrian did a great job with the Pateks and the APs. Great job putting the unexpected AP 15202 into the mix(or was I?). As I said before I love the 15202, perfect size. Alway amazed with your knowledge my friend. Keep up the good work, enjoyed this one!! 🔥 👏
Frank thanks so much this is awesome to read! No doubt 15202 is fantastic. I think a Royal Oak belongs in 39mm and dare I say I even prefer the 37mm models over the 41mm ones! Of course, just personal preference and what suits me best. Appreciate your support as always on these videos 😁🙌
That makes absolutely no sense really. Market price for a watch is what anyone is willing to pay at any given time so why would we use bid pricing instead of sale price?
@@MarcoFerranteWatches The spread on watches generally is significant; this is particularly acute for models where the market is 'correcting'. The viewer can't access the market price available to LB. The viewer price is the bid from a dealer. Seems more appropriate to reference this price when discussing returns
Lot of companies and business owners pulled in fraudulent PPE loans. All that free/fraudulent money to spend and raise prices on watches and other luxury items.
Stimulus, in one form or another, definitely had a huge role to play no doubt. You can say this about all markets to like crypto, stock market, housing market, etc.
Hard to say really. I think the hunger for watches is still there and there's a lot more exposure to the watch market. We haven't even gotten to a point where institutional money started treating watches as commodities and start watch funds and traded watch portfolios. Once that happens, prices can and will explode further. Hard to know in this market also where things will settle but like all things what goes down typically has a way of coming back up over time 😁🙌
Didn’t mention that AP had a bunch of prices increases at the retail level over that time period. 15500 now retails at $26,600. So, tax included, like $29k. We could see a return to retail pricing in gray market for that watch in ‘23.
Yes AP retail has skyrocketed but can say this about all 4 brands we are analyzing from Rolex to Patek to RM and of course AP. Have doubts blue or black dial would ever hit retail price but remains to be seen. Impossible to know where things will settle 👍
Adrian really has wealth of knowledge. He made a great point on Hulk, once people thought it was going to be discontinued, it shot up before Basel/W&W. Then it fiinally got discontinued and it shot up in price. However, the opposite is true! With Air King people they did not discontinue modeladed and old models versions did not go up in value. Same with Milgauss rumor it will be discontinue each year, keep prices up, but its still around.
So let’s say i by a stock of google for $1000, and if I could then sell it the same day, how much money would it get. $1000 right? I buy a Rolex for $10,000 and sell that the same day. How much would I get? Idk the answer but I know it’s not $10,000. This why watches are not investments and shouldn’t be seen as such
You are really making the point we are trying to show in this video. Sure on any given day any commodity or asset can be subject to price fluctuations. But over time these have show to be consistent gainers. Point isn't to pitch watches as investments but show how far watch values have come and really show that those spreading doom and gloom about the watch industry have a really slanted perspective as they are only looking at extremely short periods. In any downturn, perspective is important 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches if someone pays money for and item with the expectation of the value increasing that would be an investment. This is what the whole secondary market has changed in to. The pitch for this video is presenting watches as assets witch are investable.
Just like my pops would say with baseball cards, its only worth what someone else is willing to pay. The entire market is down and people are losing value in their watches in most cases, only rare highly sought after watches are the only ones not losing as much money. The ride is over and prepare for things to get worse. Everything went up because of way too much cheap money flooded into the market and now that money is long gone. If anyone thinks the economy will get better anytime soon they aren't seeing on the clear warning signs. Every Grey Market dealer are low balling people on their watches they want to sell to them. Times have changed.
This is pretty normal for the cream of the crop to rise to the top in any down market. Nothing new, was the same in 2008 and crises before it. If watches are really to be treated as traded commodities it's not unfair to assume that if they came down they should also eventually bounce back as other markets will in the future too 👍
Apologies, an oversight.. if you'd like to read the full breakdown of these feel free to here: www.luxurybazaar.com/grey-market/is-there-a-watch-market-crash-what-is-happening-to-the-secondary-watch-market/
Beautiful! Great info there is an amazing patek near me for sale. Vintage mens 18k piece. Just Beautiful. Its only 6500, is that something you or even myself ahould have interest in?
Very tough to say without having any pictures or detail about it. Feel free to email me marco@luxurybazaar.com and I'd be happy to help you make the best decision possible 😁🙌
Everybody's all talking about a crash but it doesn't even seem remotely even that bad especially with the financial issues that are going on today. Besides with the correction or the drop it makes it even a better time to buy because now you can get a good price while the iron's hot cuz there's just a matter of time when everything gets comfortable in the market will shoot right back up
I totally agree! In any correction or economic downturn, perspective is important. This analysis I think was super enjoyable to do just to give some incredible perspective on just how far the prices of watches have come. No doubt at all some great deals to be had right now 😁🙌
Great content as always, guys. When you speak of the Asian market, I hear Hong Kong being mentioned, but is the Middle East considered part of the Asian market? Geographically countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia are considered asian but I didn't know if "asia is the biggest consumer of luxury goods" meant that far west as well.
It is not part of the Asian market. Asia/Hong Kong and the Middle East are two completely separate markets and are treated as such generally speaking as these are very different consumer markets. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
It's possible but inflation could also be curbed and we see a big rebound in the market. The fact of the matter is no one has a crystal ball to know where prices will settle or where they will be in the future. The analysis more so meant to allow people to see how the watch market has appreciated over time so they can make informed decision in their own best interests 😁🙌
So what’s the message here? Tired of channels and companies (which is what you are) constantly stating and reiterating that “watches aren’t investments, so buy what you like”, and then you make a video like this showing how they outperform the S&P 500 so if someone that knows nothing about watches and investments happened to stumble upon this video what do you their take away would be? That’s right! That watches are amazing investments. Please don’t talk out of both sides of your mouth if you respond. I happen to love your channel(s) and business model, and are entertaining to watch, but which is it? Again, please don’t respond with “we are just presenting the data” type of response that doesn’t answer anything. There are watches on this list that I personally do not like, but if I had I time machine you bet that I would invest in all of them! Again, only asking because I constantly hear from you guys to only “buy what you like”, but then come out with a video like this which is basically screaming that Patek and AP are fantastic investments, better and safer than the S&P over xx years… Which is it?
So the entire premise behind the video was because we saw companies like Morgan Stanley and others on social media posting pricing charts analyzing the watch market showing doom and gloom numbers as they were analyzing hyper specific quarters or months only where the watch market seemed as though it was crashing. Really it made no sense to us as on any given year a commodity, which is what watches are treated as in these analyses, are subject to fluctuations. But perspective in a down market is important. We wanted to provide full context to people and actually show how far prices have come over a period that makes far more sense to analyze, ie. 6-7 years instead of 6 months. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
It actually does, thank you! However, wouldn’t you agree that watches are a commodity at this point? Obviously they are more than that to people like you and I, but on a global scale I can see how this would be the case. I’m in the large commercial Insurance business and companies like Morgan and others have basically turned insurance into a commodity as well (and sometimes a vehicle to control certain cash flows), so I do see your point.
İf you put your website watch market prices , i think you guys would be the best in time pieces industry , i agree with you chrono24 prices are not accurate , there is no expertize , same watches everyone put different prices because free market , but guys just an idea come up to my mind why you expert buyers watches and take small charges from that , example i will show you a watch in somewhere and you will say max this min this price and check this etch because i didnt see anywhere that kind of service
Very tough to offer this as a business as your essentially coaching others how to buy, sell, trade without doing it yourself lol .. doesn't really make sense to offer this from a business standpoint
Cool azz price comparisons session. Plz add more models. Rolex? Both did great, but Marco let Adrian talk + Marco u don't need all of the "rights" to start or finish a sentence.
Thanks Michael! Working on the repetitive words, just tough as I use these since I can get nervous on camera and just get into the habit of repeating stuff. Rolex and RM up next on Monday 😁🙌
Yup real experts. They guys who offer wayyyyy under market on pieces but then try to charge top dollar high end of pricing. The lowest buy offers I’ve ever seen came from you guys. It’s just a fact
@@squigglyphrank9348 I’m talking in terms of other dealers. They all have overhead and expenses. Honestly I feel them being a bigger company should allow them to be more competitive. But everyone knows their offers are always low
I mean I'd love an example of this as I myself or Adrian handle the vast majority of buying at LB. At the end of the day we are a business and work to make a profit, that is the nature of operating any business. We try to be as fair as possible based on the information available to us which includes thousands of wholesale relationships Roman and Adrian have built up over the years. We can see what $ amount watches are trading for anywhere in the world at any given time and try to provide an assessment for the value of your watch based on this. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
The whole economy is contracting and will continue right into recession how deep who knows, hopefully shallow. You have to use your own judgment, but the probability I can get a better deal next year based on current state is high. Don’t blame the war lol. Everything was out to lunch with prices.
It's impossible to know where things will settle and as we mentioned throughout the video, so many factors played a role in the pricing we saw. At the end of the day all we can do is present the information available to us and hope it helps people to make informed decisions. That's why we wanted to provide this analysis was more so to contradict this whole doom and gloom where pricing charts only show decline in 6 months rather than showing how far they've come in the last 6 years 😁🙌
Certain watches are, if you can buy at rrp in first instance. Cars generally not, I agree, unless very rare/expensive. Real Estate is an investment. Our family home has almost doubled in value over the last decade. Money is often well spent in property, certainly versus renting.
Haha I promise I'm working on it. Hard to not fall into the trap of what I call anchor words which is why I will say right or ultimately and other phrases a lot. Just happens naturally since you can feel a bit nervous while on camera. But definitely working on it hahaha 😁🙌
@@SmithBeatZ1 Haha it's all good! Trust me I am not that serious about it and laugh at myself all the time. I must admit I look back at myself 6 months ago and cringe at myself and I'm sure 6 more months from now I'll cringe even more 😂😂
To quote a wise man “ The Watch Market is dead in a pool in the backyard floating face down, and Dropping and Dropping”😂😂😂
Yes that's why we just had a record month in sales this past month. The watch world is burning and the sky is falling 😂😂😂
@@MarcoFerranteWatches Listen I’m actually a business owner not a muppet employee, record sales mean absolutely nothing and is very misleading. Net profits is what actually matters young kid. Watch dealers are unloading their inventory for record losses therefore that’s why sales are up, not to mention all those crypto kids are trying to sell there watches back because crypto crashed. Everyone is trying to sell there watches back flooding the market it’s a buyers market right now kid and prices are continuing to drop. Stop misleading your viewers by saying you have record sales as if that somehow equates to record profits it doesn’t kid. Sell that dream to all those suckers who bought overpriced watches from you and are now trying to sell them back to you, and you telling them you’ll give them half of what they purchased it for from you.🤣🤣🤣
I think though prices dropped, that guy is spreading FUD. Just like any market. Stocks etc. there will always be a bear.
Don’t be a lollipop sucker😂
And brush your hair…
I can listen to these both guys talking all day. A real conversation, no interruptions, no over talking, points are delivered smoothly
This is awesome to hear, thanks so much! Really appreciate the support on this 😁🙌
This discussion format with Adrian and Marco talking specific brands and models is fantastic. I would love to see follow on segments focusing on other models within brands. For example, Patek Philippe complications. I look forward to the upcoming Rolex video.
Thanks Danny! Glad you enjoyed this, it was super eye opening to actually see how far the market has come. Definitely would be great to analyze more watches from these brands in the near future. Stay tuned as the Rolex and RM video is also great! 😁🙌
Everyone forgets up until 2016 you could virtually walk into an AD and buy what you wanted out of the window sometimes at discount. There has been six years of hype, and not the hype is deflating. In the UK you just can’t wear expensive watches due to theft. All the buyers that used to pay the hype prices have lost interest now and that affects the market.
UK is just one market and certainly doesn't reflect global demand. People are still very much buying watches perhaps just not in the same quantity as before. But that doesn't mean the growth experienced will be lost forever. All asset markets are correcting so if we're really treating watches as a commodity, I think it's fair to assume prices will eventually bounce back as other markets do also 👍
2:10 I do not agree, on chrono24 if the starting price is often excessive, the price at which the watch is sold (revalued price) corresponds to the market price.
Chrono24 is not the greatest reference point for pricing data in complete honesty as they are a pricing aggregator so they just average out all listings of specific models
Adrian, could you clarify your pricing examples. LB used to sell only wholesale and now is selling retail. Were you using retail pricing in all of your average yearly pricing?
I can tell you as I'm the one who compiled the numbers from Adrian. I'd say 98% of the numbers used for this are retail sales, the other 2-3% at most would be wholesale if I felt there wasn't enough data to make the category filled with enough data to make the analysis strong enough. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches thanks for confirming the numbers come from retail sales.
This is flawed analysis to compare the top performing watches to the S&P 500. You would have to compare the prices of a broader group of watches to the S&P. If I got to cherry-pick a stock say Apple it went from $24 to $150 since 2016. That is a 35% annualized return and that is not even at the high of $180. Microsoft went from $52 to $250 which is a 30% annualized return. It is interesting that you covered the price history, but the comparison to stocks is very deceptive.
This is actually a very fair criticism. Main reason I used the S&P500 as a point of comparison as it's probably the most followed index and just because it's somewhat easy to compare to, but definitely fair that it is flawed to compare one model to an index as opposed to an individual stock. It's not really meant to be a straight comparison like oh look watches are outperforming the S&P it's more so just add a point of comparison than anything because I feel if you're talking growth of anything you need something to compare it to 👍
Not pitching as investments however you make repeated comparisons to the S&P and ave. ROI...
Even with using your sales data, it is easy to show stats in different ways to represent a desired outcome. For example, yr to yr figures may show a current uptrend for some watches whereas the mth to mth will suggest differently. Number of sales per period will show the market interest. Adding net present value to the mix will normalise the ROI outlook against yearly inflation.
Moreover the biggest factor of all... buy price Vs sell price. If someone took what you are saying on face value and "bought-in" a watch, then when you talk about returns (even if you conversely say watches aren't investments), these are unrealised returns until sold. So when they come to sell, the offer received from the likes of yourselves would be 15-20%(?) less than market price.. That is ofcourse not mentioned and should be if you want to talk about a subject like this in a transparent way (as you are intending to do in this video).. it is a fundamental factor!
Honestly, not sure about this suggestive content about the market, it's a fine line. It is also off-putting from your normal great content. Stick to the grey market shows and watch talks 👍. Watches are for wearing and enjoying 😉.
A lot to unpack here I will break it down so as best to answer this..
1. Not meant to be suggestive content at all really. Not trying to pitch watches as investments on the contrary we just want to give people important market information so that they can make the most informed decision possible. That's why we wanted to provide this analysis was more so to contradict this whole doom and gloom where pricing charts only show decline in 6 months rather than showing how far they've come in the last 6 years. Perspective in any down market is important and there is a clear lack of it in most pricing charts floating around on the internet.
2. The analysis could've been done any number of ways. The point was more to showcase average growth over time. This was the easiest and most succint way for us to show growth in price over time because again this isn't meant to be a quarterly analysis but rather simply to showcase growth over the last 6-7 years. Prices for 2022 as mentioned in the article are slightly skewed as we don't have the months of November and December 2022 as this analysis was done in early November. Nonetheless pleased with how it turned out.
3. The buy price and sell price doesn't have much to factor in as we are only analyzing sale price. If we have to include buy price for every model this would have turned from a near 1 hour video to a 10 hour video. Plus the average industry margin is about 10% .. if you want to be conservative call it 12%, so can subtract this from sale prices. Again I don't see much utility to this as the analysis wasn't meant to showcase buy/sell but rather growth in price over time. Us using sale prices as indicator is just the best metric to use to determine a watch's market price at any given point because a watch is only really worth what someone else is willing to pay.
Hope this explanation makes sense and you at the very least enjoyed this video or got something of value from it 😁🙌
Great explanation. I've seen it first hand with my uncle who's a watch dealer dealing in less expensive brands and even he says the only way to earn money in this business is to keep everything moving.
No doubt! People who say dealers hoard stock really have no idea what actually happens. Activity is everything! 😁🙌
I hate when people talk about watches and compare their price increases to stock market performance.
These are time-keeping devices susceptible to sudden changes in demand and have no underlying value other than the cost of parts used.
Stocks have entire corporations behind them actively working to increase the share price.
Always good to hear what you fellows have to say! Patek is King 👑
What's up Jamie!! Hope all is well my man! Love it.. Patek is King haha 😁🙌
The "correction" started with the "invasion"
Lmao
I mean what other reference point would you use? That was really the reference point most people use as when prices in the watch market started falling..
Love these types of videos with all your insight guys!
Awesome to hear this feedback thanks so much bro!! 😁🙌
I think some of the meteoric rise in values in some of the watches is that people started to learn more about watches and when people understood more about them, it became clear what was truly special, and what was just normal.
Guys, the 5990 black is discontinued but I just received a steel with blue dial from the PP ad. What's the marketprice of that ?
Tough to say as I've seen these a little all over the place. Think they are now settling around the $180,000 mark but don't quote me on that. Brand new release so trading well above retail as expected of course 😁🙌
So in summary some watches have outperformed the s&p500 over the past 6 years - do you expect it to still return 20% pa for the next 6?
Hard to say for certain as no one has a crystal ball. The point of the analysis wasn't to pitch watches as investments. It was really to provide full context to people and actually show how far prices have come over a period that makes far more sense to analyze, ie. 6-7 years instead of 6 months which most doom and gloom graphs people share are analyzing. I think the watch market is still extremely bright especially given the fact that watches have more exposure than ever and the hunger for watches is still very much alive 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches it will be interesting to see if in years to come we look back at the last 3 years as an anomaly or as a turning point.
Congrats this is the best watch channel atm imo.
Drinking shots every time Marco says “Right?” 🥴🤢😅
Oof you must but completely gone 😂
Good show can't wait for the rolex review
Awesome to hear this, thanks Scott!! 😁🙌
Why don't you reference 2020 first? Because that's when the watch market boomed. There were more buyers, more sellers and more transaction. The demand surge suddenly made accessible watches inaccessible. Which explains the corresponding price surge. Talk about that market as a starting point for investment and then talk about where we are in 2022. How are trading volumes? People are stuck with hype pieces, dealers have difficulty moving inventory today etc...
A 3 year pricing analysis is simply far too short. The point was to showcase growth over a longer period of time. The whole discussion surrounding watches as investments started also before 2022. Trading volumes are great and picking back up and have since the last few months. We are back to doing our monthly averages despite the dip in the market. There are still many buyers out there especially as prices become more attractive on the buy side 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches THe watches you picked as an example are for people who were already into watches before the boom. Of course all their purchases are now ahead. But the bulk of the market participants today are here buying up the hype pieces are not long time collectors. They paid the premium. They are left wondering if they hold onto the 15202 at 85k today is there upside based on the 3 yr price, not the 5 yr or more price. Coz 5 yrs ago they were not even in the market for it.
Great Episode Marco and Adrian. Watches are bought to be enjoyed. If it goes up that's a bonus. Can't wait for the next one. Lots of love from Australia. Abs.
Thank you! No doubt watches are and should remain a passion based hobby even though it's always fun to do an analysis like this to see how far watches have come 😁🙌
Great to see hard data, gentlemen. Thanks for this.
Thank you for watching! Glad you enjoyed this 😁🙌
Just wait until next year, watch prices are going to drop hard
Impossible to really know for certain 🤷♂
Maybe. But the Rolex CPO program will boost them (Rolex at least) back up again…
Adrian dude' Stop interrupting Marco lol. Omg Marco
No way Adrian is the real expert here, I just want to extract the knowledge he has and share it with everyone 😁🙌
Marco, you and Adrian did a great job with the Pateks and the APs. Great job putting the unexpected AP 15202 into the mix(or was I?). As I said before I love the 15202, perfect size. Alway amazed with your knowledge my friend. Keep up the good work, enjoyed this one!! 🔥 👏
Frank thanks so much this is awesome to read! No doubt 15202 is fantastic. I think a Royal Oak belongs in 39mm and dare I say I even prefer the 37mm models over the 41mm ones! Of course, just personal preference and what suits me best. Appreciate your support as always on these videos 😁🙌
Fairly misleading to use the 'market' price here. To give a true guide of what the piece is worth you should use your bid price
That makes absolutely no sense really. Market price for a watch is what anyone is willing to pay at any given time so why would we use bid pricing instead of sale price?
@@MarcoFerranteWatches The spread on watches generally is significant; this is particularly acute for models where the market is 'correcting'. The viewer can't access the market price available to LB. The viewer price is the bid from a dealer. Seems more appropriate to reference this price when discussing returns
Lot of companies and business owners pulled in fraudulent PPE loans. All that free/fraudulent money to spend and raise prices on watches and other luxury items.
Stimulus, in one form or another, definitely had a huge role to play no doubt. You can say this about all markets to like crypto, stock market, housing market, etc.
i dont think there will be another growth period like there was from 2017-2021. Social media exploded demand.
Hard to say really. I think the hunger for watches is still there and there's a lot more exposure to the watch market. We haven't even gotten to a point where institutional money started treating watches as commodities and start watch funds and traded watch portfolios. Once that happens, prices can and will explode further. Hard to know in this market also where things will settle but like all things what goes down typically has a way of coming back up over time 😁🙌
Enjoyed the video. Thanks for the info.
Awesome to hear this! Thanks for watching 😁🙌
There are glitzier, flashier and more bombastic TH-cam watch content creators - but there is no one better than Marco
My man! This is amazing to read!! Thanks so much I really appreciate the kind words it truly does mean a lot to read this 😁🙌
I hope you guys know how much we appreciate the honesty with which you conduct your business. Your reputation is well deserved.
Thanks so much Earle! Extremely humbled to read this and your support is sincerely appreciated!! 😁🙌
1:31 Adrian:( “did you really cut me off like this?!” )
Haha my mistake!
Didn’t mention that AP had a bunch of prices increases at the retail level over that time period. 15500 now retails at $26,600. So, tax included, like $29k. We could see a return to retail pricing in gray market for that watch in ‘23.
Yes AP retail has skyrocketed but can say this about all 4 brands we are analyzing from Rolex to Patek to RM and of course AP. Have doubts blue or black dial would ever hit retail price but remains to be seen. Impossible to know where things will settle 👍
Adrian really has wealth of knowledge. He made a great point on Hulk, once people thought it was going to be discontinued, it shot up before Basel/W&W. Then it fiinally got discontinued and it shot up in price. However, the opposite is true! With Air King people they did not discontinue modeladed and old models versions did not go up in value. Same with Milgauss rumor it will be discontinue each year, keep prices up, but its still around.
Right?
So let’s say i by a stock of google for $1000, and if I could then sell it the same day, how much money would it get. $1000 right?
I buy a Rolex for $10,000 and sell that the same day. How much would I get? Idk the answer but I know it’s not $10,000. This why watches are not investments and shouldn’t be seen as such
You are really making the point we are trying to show in this video. Sure on any given day any commodity or asset can be subject to price fluctuations. But over time these have show to be consistent gainers. Point isn't to pitch watches as investments but show how far watch values have come and really show that those spreading doom and gloom about the watch industry have a really slanted perspective as they are only looking at extremely short periods. In any downturn, perspective is important 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches if someone pays money for and item with the expectation of the value increasing that would be an investment. This is what the whole secondary market has changed in to. The pitch for this video is presenting watches as assets witch are investable.
Great chemistry guys
Thank you!!! 😁🙌
Just like my pops would say with baseball cards, its only worth what someone else is willing to pay. The entire market is down and people are losing value in their watches in most cases, only rare highly sought after watches are the only ones not losing as much money. The ride is over and prepare for things to get worse. Everything went up because of way too much cheap money flooded into the market and now that money is long gone. If anyone thinks the economy will get better anytime soon they aren't seeing on the clear warning signs. Every Grey Market dealer are low balling people on their watches they want to sell to them. Times have changed.
This is pretty normal for the cream of the crop to rise to the top in any down market. Nothing new, was the same in 2008 and crises before it. If watches are really to be treated as traded commodities it's not unfair to assume that if they came down they should also eventually bounce back as other markets will in the future too 👍
Make the auto translate available again please
You have 5711 Nautilus 2019 in twice...
Apologies, an oversight.. if you'd like to read the full breakdown of these feel free to here: www.luxurybazaar.com/grey-market/is-there-a-watch-market-crash-what-is-happening-to-the-secondary-watch-market/
What a great Video and very interesting and Valuable content. More vidoes like this one, focusing on other brands like rolex etc
Awesome to hear this! Stay tuned as Rolex and RM are up next 😁🙌
Beautiful! Great info there is an amazing patek near me for sale. Vintage mens 18k piece. Just Beautiful. Its only 6500, is that something you or even myself ahould have interest in?
Very tough to say without having any pictures or detail about it. Feel free to email me marco@luxurybazaar.com and I'd be happy to help you make the best decision possible 😁🙌
One of the best episode from LB
Thanks so much! Appreciate the kind words 😁🙌
Everybody's all talking about a crash but it doesn't even seem remotely even that bad especially with the financial issues that are going on today. Besides with the correction or the drop it makes it even a better time to buy because now you can get a good price while the iron's hot cuz there's just a matter of time when everything gets comfortable in the market will shoot right back up
I totally agree! In any correction or economic downturn, perspective is important. This analysis I think was super enjoyable to do just to give some incredible perspective on just how far the prices of watches have come. No doubt at all some great deals to be had right now 😁🙌
Great content as always, guys. When you speak of the Asian market, I hear Hong Kong being mentioned, but is the Middle East considered part of the Asian market? Geographically countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia are considered asian but I didn't know if "asia is the biggest consumer of luxury goods" meant that far west as well.
It is not part of the Asian market. Asia/Hong Kong and the Middle East are two completely separate markets and are treated as such generally speaking as these are very different consumer markets. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches Ty for the clarification. My daughter had a homework question asking what continent Syria was in. I had to look it up lol
Yes!! Kickin back and about to enjoy this video......thanks guys😎⌚️❤️✌️
Awesome, hope you enjoyed this!! 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches LOVE this type of video...awesome idea😉Really just need a Dont Invest In Watches hoodie now my man😎😊❤️⌚️✌️
Great video. Thanks for making it.
Glad you enjoyed! Thanks for watching 😁🙌
All this does is show that prices can go down even further to 2018/2017 numbers
It's possible but inflation could also be curbed and we see a big rebound in the market. The fact of the matter is no one has a crystal ball to know where prices will settle or where they will be in the future. The analysis more so meant to allow people to see how the watch market has appreciated over time so they can make informed decision in their own best interests 😁🙌
So what’s the message here? Tired of channels and companies (which is what you are) constantly stating and reiterating that “watches aren’t investments, so buy what you like”, and then you make a video like this showing how they outperform the S&P 500 so if someone that knows nothing about watches and investments happened to stumble upon this video what do you their take away would be? That’s right! That watches are amazing investments. Please don’t talk out of both sides of your mouth if you respond. I happen to love your channel(s) and business model, and are entertaining to watch, but which is it? Again, please don’t respond with “we are just presenting the data” type of response that doesn’t answer anything. There are watches on this list that I personally do not like, but if I had I time machine you bet that I would invest in all of them! Again, only asking because I constantly hear from you guys to only “buy what you like”, but then come out with a video like this which is basically screaming that Patek and AP are fantastic investments, better and safer than the S&P over xx years… Which is it?
So the entire premise behind the video was because we saw companies like Morgan Stanley and others on social media posting pricing charts analyzing the watch market showing doom and gloom numbers as they were analyzing hyper specific quarters or months only where the watch market seemed as though it was crashing. Really it made no sense to us as on any given year a commodity, which is what watches are treated as in these analyses, are subject to fluctuations. But perspective in a down market is important. We wanted to provide full context to people and actually show how far prices have come over a period that makes far more sense to analyze, ie. 6-7 years instead of 6 months. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
It actually does, thank you! However, wouldn’t you agree that watches are a commodity at this point? Obviously they are more than that to people like you and I, but on a global scale I can see how this would be the case. I’m in the large commercial Insurance business and companies like Morgan and others have basically turned insurance into a commodity as well (and sometimes a vehicle to control certain cash flows), so I do see your point.
İf you put your website watch market prices , i think you guys would be the best in time pieces industry , i agree with you chrono24 prices are not accurate , there is no expertize , same watches everyone put different prices because free market , but guys just an idea come up to my mind why you expert buyers watches and take small charges from that , example i will show you a watch in somewhere and you will say max this min this price and check this etch because i didnt see anywhere that kind of service
Very tough to offer this as a business as your essentially coaching others how to buy, sell, trade without doing it yourself lol .. doesn't really make sense to offer this from a business standpoint
Cool azz price comparisons session. Plz add more models. Rolex? Both did great, but Marco let Adrian talk + Marco u don't need all of the "rights" to start or finish a sentence.
Thanks Michael! Working on the repetitive words, just tough as I use these since I can get nervous on camera and just get into the habit of repeating stuff. Rolex and RM up next on Monday 😁🙌
Marco. You are talented & entertaining. I believe my suggestions can only make your appearances much more amazing.
damn that white ceramic AP is insane
That watch is just so 🔥 .. Sad it was sold along with the black ceramic.. I was hoping to enjoy them for a little while longer 😥
Yup real experts. They guys who offer wayyyyy under market on pieces but then try to charge top dollar high end of pricing. The lowest buy offers I’ve ever seen came from you guys. It’s just a fact
Overhead
@@squigglyphrank9348 I’m talking in terms of other dealers. They all have overhead and expenses. Honestly I feel them being a bigger company should allow them to be more competitive. But everyone knows their offers are always low
I mean I'd love an example of this as I myself or Adrian handle the vast majority of buying at LB. At the end of the day we are a business and work to make a profit, that is the nature of operating any business. We try to be as fair as possible based on the information available to us which includes thousands of wholesale relationships Roman and Adrian have built up over the years. We can see what $ amount watches are trading for anywhere in the world at any given time and try to provide an assessment for the value of your watch based on this. Hope this explanation makes sense 😁🙌
Awesome info thank you 🙏
Glad you enjoyed this! Thank you for watching 😁🙌
The whole economy is contracting and will continue right into recession how deep who knows, hopefully shallow. You have to use your own judgment, but the probability I can get a better deal next year based on current state is high. Don’t blame the war lol. Everything was out to lunch with prices.
It's impossible to know where things will settle and as we mentioned throughout the video, so many factors played a role in the pricing we saw. At the end of the day all we can do is present the information available to us and hope it helps people to make informed decisions. That's why we wanted to provide this analysis was more so to contradict this whole doom and gloom where pricing charts only show decline in 6 months rather than showing how far they've come in the last 6 years 😁🙌
Bro stop blaiming the invasion on everything
What else would you use as a reference point for the start of the decline? It is THE reference point everyone uses..
Correction😂
Is it not a correction?
I've said it before, I'll say it again...watches, cars and real estate aren't viable investments.
I can agree with you on the first 2, real estate I am still not on board lol
Certain watches are, if you can buy at rrp in first instance. Cars generally not, I agree, unless very rare/expensive. Real Estate is an investment. Our family home has almost doubled in value over the last decade. Money is often well spent in property, certainly versus renting.
nice😎
Thank you!! 😁🙌
Now Marco has Adrian is saying right all the time? Oh man. This is gonna be a long video lol. Now I can't stop listening for it. Make it stop haha.
Haha I promise I'm working on it. Hard to not fall into the trap of what I call anchor words which is why I will say right or ultimately and other phrases a lot. Just happens naturally since you can feel a bit nervous while on camera. But definitely working on it hahaha 😁🙌
@@MarcoFerranteWatches I gotta give ya a hard time. Appreciate you being a good sport.
@@SmithBeatZ1 Haha it's all good! Trust me I am not that serious about it and laugh at myself all the time. I must admit I look back at myself 6 months ago and cringe at myself and I'm sure 6 more months from now I'll cringe even more 😂😂
"Eright?" "Right?" "Right?"
Right!
Right?
Right! 😁🙌