Tesla Is Stockpiling MASSIVE Amounts Of Batteries... But Why?

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 78

  • @FoxInClogs
    @FoxInClogs 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +10

    This reminds me of something I'd read post-lockdown.
    All of the legacy manufacturers cancelled their chip orders when the pandemic hit but Tesla didn't.
    This meant that the legacy companies couldn't build enough cars when demand picked up again, leading to massive lead times.
    As far as I know, Tesla could generally keep delivering within a few weeks.
    Maybe this helped the Model 3 & Y sales take off after the pandemic?

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      If we think this through...
      Tesla not only innovated to use what was available, but became THE preferred customer for those manufacturers moving forward.
      Tesla can now negotiate (for instance) a 5 year deal, and "request" first refusal on the next gen cells these companies produce....
      That's a great position moving forward.

  • @Urgelt
    @Urgelt 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    Tesla Energy can use batteries, too. That part of Tesla is actually ramping faster than their car business. Good margins.

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Cher-CHING!!

    • @ouethojlkjn
      @ouethojlkjn 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      You are right that Tesla energy is ramping up and there are good margins, but I doubt these batteries are destined for Energy. I believe They are different battery chemistries.

    • @Urgelt
      @Urgelt 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@ouethojlkjn Tesla has shown flexibility when it comes to adapting various chemistries to different products.

  • @kurtschladetzky1037
    @kurtschladetzky1037 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    The Ford Mustang Mach-E borrowed its name and some styling elements, but little else, from the ICE Ford Mustang. According to Wikipedia, it’s built on a heavily reworked version of the Ford Focus/Kuga platform.

  • @dennishaggerty463
    @dennishaggerty463 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Dave one aspect of buying up a large quantity of batteries for a US company that is cash rich is to take advantage of the inflated value of the US dollar against other currencies. This would enable them to exploit this before the Fed reduces interest rates and the dollar falls back. Hence Tesla are maximising their dollar buying power while they can.
    Much of the discussion about battery chemistry is lost on the Eurobox customer who just wants a car that’s reliable, affordable and preferable does at least 250 miles between charges. If Tesla can use this opportunity to outsmart legacy auto and bring a model range to market with an on the road price £20-£25k that meets this criteria they will be unbeatable. Their only issue is production capacity.

  • @bellshooter
    @bellshooter 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I worked on a 'Project Juniper' in the 1980's, a UK EMU railway product. This for Alstom Rail, named as the lead loved a G&T...

  • @rogerstarkey5390
    @rogerstarkey5390 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    (imo)
    The jist is right, but Tesla doesn't produce LiFePo4 cells (yet)
    .
    Tesla (Elon?) said they "expect to be producing the 4680 (Nickel based) at lower cost than they can buy *Nickel based* cells from suppliers later this year"
    .
    IF they do buy Nickel based cells, I suspect they won't increase range, Tesla will concentrate on making cars, cheaper, keeping the pack capacity the same.
    (Elon *still* thinks there's a danger of recession, if so, Tesla will have a more compelling product)
    .
    "Cheaper later this year"....
    I don't think that will be the "GEN 3" (unboxed) vehicle.
    I think that's going to be the "cheap vehicle on the existing production lines using aspects of unboxed"...
    .
    Since the object of the exercise is "cheaper" , I predit
    Same body (Model 3, Amortized tooling costs)
    Same castings.
    But with "systems" from the unboxed vehicles,.
    They'll build those systems into the castings "unboxed style", away from the vehicle and move the complete units to final assembly.
    .
    How can they do that?
    Because rather than installing the wiring (example) into a "finished" vehicle they will build what is essentially the "data cable" and peripheral units (controls, etc) into each section then plug the sections together as they bolt on the assemblies.
    .
    Same applies to ("electric"?) brakes.
    You'll have a model 3, with "unboxed inside", easier (cheaper) to assemble.
    Then....
    Single motor.
    Dial back the performance to.... 6.9 second 0-60 (just because "6.9") for economy.
    Fit a *smaller* capacity pack, about 50kWh, into the *lighter* vehicle.
    Maybe call it the "3e"(?).
    .
    Model Y version? That'll be "Juniper".
    ......
    The Compact, Taxi?
    Unrelated to the vehicle above, but Common to each other (economy of scale)
    Not 2 seat ("Compact" can mean "Short, space efficient")
    .
    It's the "cube" from Investor Day.
    .
    A Taxi? (Let's say in London?)
    Mandatory wheelchair access?
    That's not a 2 seater.
    .
    Only difference? The "manual control module" (bolt on, single data connection, gaming style), Removable at the end of lease on the compact for fast conversion to a Taxi.... It's the same!!
    .
    Those vehicles will first will come from Texas on 2(?) lines .
    Why 2?
    imo,
    The "unboxed " vehicle "delayed", which led to the Reuters opinion wasn't the compact, it was a test of the unboxed line using a low volume, labour intensive, but high profit product
    (I'll let you work out what that was... But they showed it on Investor day!)
    .....
    Why was the change made?
    Because
    1) The unboxed system was going *very* well in terms of efficiency and production speed (the "slow build, expensive" vehicle was no longer necessary to finesse the line)
    .
    2) In mid to late 2023 it became blindingly obvious to those within Tesla seeing the system 6 months ahead of the public version that FSD was making FAST progress.
    .
    Those two systems are to a great extent reliant on each other.
    They required maximum unboxed output, and the logical method was to expand at Texas.... (They're expanding at Texas!!)
    .
    Oh...
    The extra batteries?
    Megapacks are on the cusp of becoming a money printing machine.
    .
    All speculation....
    Time will tell.

  • @davereedcouk
    @davereedcouk 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Some good points raised here.

  • @philgalpin9284
    @philgalpin9284 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Following your logic, explain the BMW I3? The biggest wasted opportunity known.

  • @trisknight9430
    @trisknight9430 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Makes perfect sense as long as you’re not in the hate EVERY camp

  • @Odinscrow1962
    @Odinscrow1962 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Lots is sense and I agree with your take on the market and your projection. 🎉

  • @paulkearsley9509
    @paulkearsley9509 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Problem with model 2 (Redwood), no one knows when they will truly be launched. Tesla/Elon gives date, which a re NEVER honoured (e.g. Roadster, SEMI, etc)

  • @darrendaniels5129
    @darrendaniels5129 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Dave can you do a video on Tesla chargers as all of them have now opened up to everyone 😊

  • @dominikrak72
    @dominikrak72 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Excellent analysis

  • @G6EJD
    @G6EJD 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Are you referring to batteries or cells or the cells themselves as Tesla designed a new type of 18650 cell with different chemistry and construction, and they were moving to LiFePO4.

  • @Jaw0lf
    @Jaw0lf 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I agree and would say LFP is still very good for most EV's giving 5.8 seconds 0-60MPH is still no slouch and the other benefits are great.

  • @danny29x
    @danny29x 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Also slowing down installation of new chargers and fixing the ones they have already. Something isnt going right at tesla.

  • @drrock999
    @drrock999 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Not sure I’d say MCN batteries are better per se. For day to day LFP more resilient and safer. I’d always take LFP as a preference.

  • @tangoadvance8393
    @tangoadvance8393 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I’m still amazed Tesla have not made a proper European hatchback Focus sized car before now, I would imagine it would clean up the sales with ease as that’s what Europeans like in general. See what happens with the mysterious Model 2!

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Yes and no. They sold all their early cars into the US and Chinese markets and they are not or were not huge SUV fans. Europe was relatively small. Now some early markets are slowing down, they have to shift their focus. Expect a few hatchback models including I suspect a hatchback version of the Model 3.

  • @G6EJD
    @G6EJD 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Futures market - they are probably expecting a shortage or a price increase.

  • @CHunt-cz1ek
    @CHunt-cz1ek 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Telsa needs to get the Redwood out and end the "fool-size" pickup truck. Like, early 2025. Don't fuck up and miss the opportunity.

  • @paulhilling6208
    @paulhilling6208 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    U see plenty of mg4's about so you would take a tesla at a similar price

  • @Donncada1
    @Donncada1 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I love it when you do supply and demand economics. Ford are not paying you enough, what exciting times we live in.

  • @MrGMawson2438
    @MrGMawson2438 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Cheers Dave

  • @crm114.
    @crm114. 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    My understanding is that they are going to use the existing production lines (3 & Y) to produce cheaper cars but not on the new platform for quite a while.

  • @mbak7801
    @mbak7801 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    My equivalent of power walls are LFP. I hope Tesla does not try and use NMC batteries in theirs as that would be a genuine safety issue. Also if I was given an NMC battery and was wanting LFP I would complain. LFP means no 20->80% charge limits. Much simpler and safer. A model 2 with NMC is just not attractive. You would go from being able to use 100% of your battery down to 60% and have a management headache.

  • @nicovankampen4206
    @nicovankampen4206 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Mach e GT also has LFP

  • @MrGMawson2438
    @MrGMawson2438 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Dave I was thinking VW was all in with Xpeng China

  • @watchtheskies
    @watchtheskies 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Model 2 incoming!!

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Not "Model 2"
      And not yet.
      Listen to the call

    • @PJWey
      @PJWey 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@rogerstarkey5390CyberCab

  • @alanhowemusic2457
    @alanhowemusic2457 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I feel so sorry for people who actually purchased an electric car with lithium Ion battery chemistry. If the manufacturer only installed liquid cooling at the top of the battery pack this will start degradation much sooner especially if the end user charges on a DC public charger. The traction battery pack becomes very warm. If the end user uses a public A/C charger then the inverter in the car is smaller and therefore a much lower current charges the traction battery pack and less current charging less heat developed in the battery pack.

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Batteries get pre-conditioned on the drive to the charger, they get hot while charging, the cooling kicks in, problem over. That's why they have battery heating and cooling. I assume you have seen the recent gathering of Model 3s that have done over 300,000 on the original battery and most of that was at superchargers. Look it up. Top mileage was 413,000 original battery.

    • @alanhowemusic2457
      @alanhowemusic2457 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@davetakesiton Many thanks Dave for your reply comments. Coolant systems in battery heat management have not been the best. Should be full cell immersion and not just top cooling of battery pack or as in the Nissan leaf air cooled. What’s your view on coolant systems for traction battery pack in particular older electric car models from all manufacturers of electric cars. Yes by the way I have seen information regarding older Tesla models covering 300,000 miles and more. I understand but correct me if I’m wrong that the high mileage Tesla models were from warm climates which help to prolong battery life.

  • @thevideoark
    @thevideoark 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I’m clearly not keeping up. I thought the Model 2 project had been put on hold.

    • @Brian-om2hh
      @Brian-om2hh 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Nope. It was just the press who thought that...

    • @thevideoark
      @thevideoark 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Brian-om2hh Thanks. I can’t believe the press got it wrong. 😄

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      No the press knew exactly what they were doing, they just lied to get a good click bait headline.

  • @MrGMawson2438
    @MrGMawson2438 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Hello mate

  • @AlanTov
    @AlanTov 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    More Tesla.
    Yaaaaaaaawn

  • @roger_is_red
    @roger_is_red 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    interesting!

  • @BROOMEngineeringTMIET
    @BROOMEngineeringTMIET 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Dave's Daily Tesla Waffles........but he really isn't interested in his Tesla share value! 🤣
    Good luck turning it around with your 8k echo chamber! 👌 If you look at subscribers, the 'realists' are growing at a much faster rate, suggesting they align more with the majority.

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ah, I see your issue. 2023 EV sales up 35% worldwide, 2024 forecast EV sales up 27% what a total disaster, how will the industry survive? And China, the largest car market in the world projects EVs to take 78% of all vehicles sold in 2024. Only 78%! calamity. While diesel cars have just about stopped selling and petrol sales continue the decline that started back in 2017. Going down

    • @BROOMEngineeringTMIET
      @BROOMEngineeringTMIET 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@davetakesiton yes - I have heard several examples of people having dealers cancel their ICE vehicle order, as manufacturer's pull out the stops to meet their EV targets, and bully people to go electric.
      Or my local Nissan dealer with 4 'used' EV's for sale, listed with only 100 miles.
      That isn't really demand. It is all market manipulation.
      How are you getting on with the video of depreciation of your vehicle and EV in general, so people can get a full picture of ownership costs, or the billions of tonnes of coal still being burnt in China, to facilitate your clean 'green' dream?

  • @patdbean
    @patdbean 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    But don't lfp batteries have a longer cycle life and charge better in the cold? Or is that a myth?

    • @Harrythehun
      @Harrythehun 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The lack of cobalt makes the LFP have worse cold temperature characteristics.

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Myths.

    • @mbak7801
      @mbak7801 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      LFP batteries are fine at both very low and high temperatures. They can be charged and left at 100% or taken down to 0%. They have a much higher full cycle count. They cannot catch fire or explode. The only problem is they are slightly less energy dense hence heavier for the same level of storage. A Tesla 2 with LFP batteries would have a lower range but could be plugged in every night and ignored. With an NMC battery a Tesla 2 would have to be kept in the 20->80% range except for the odd occasion. Yes the battery may be lighter but you are not using 40% of it.

    • @patdbean
      @patdbean 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@mbak7801 so my above post was more or less correct then?

  • @djtaylorutube
    @djtaylorutube 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    "Polestar hits 370kW in new extreme fast charging tests
    EV maker charged a Polestar 5 prototype from 10-80% in just 10 minutes, hitting a peak charging speed of 370kW"

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I hope it does, but do you want to bet what speed any purchaser will get if and when it is released?

    • @djtaylorutube
      @djtaylorutube 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@davetakesiton Presumably it's a demonstration of a pathway forward. I can turn my LPG fuelling into a 10 minute stop if I keep going at the upper end of the pressure limit and the pump doesn't auto stop.
      I was at a Morrisons on Saturday doing exactly that, about 1 litre per minute or two and I wanted another 10 after the first 38.

  • @MrGMawson2438
    @MrGMawson2438 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    International Debuts from Beijing Auto 2024 (MG EXE181, Mazda EZ-6, Mini Aceman, and MORE!)
    Wheelsboy

  • @keithdenton8386
    @keithdenton8386 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The batteries will be used for storage. Not Tesla cars. Tesla do not make cars around other people. They know what is going into their cars. These batteries are too unpredictable for Tesla to use. They need guaranteed supply at a regulated price.

  • @andrewtruscott8515
    @andrewtruscott8515 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Seen today’s John Cadogan?!!!

    • @tangoadvance8393
      @tangoadvance8393 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      No, and I’m not going to either he’s just a click bate TH-camr like a fair few others.

  • @junehanzawa5165
    @junehanzawa5165 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    What is all this rambling all about? What batteries is he talking about? The battery megapacks are going to large Supercharger charging stations and to utility scale storage. California is now up to 7GW of battery storage.

  • @niceboy60
    @niceboy60 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Here's, a genuine question, How do you Charge a Tesla Truck or EV trucks?😳
    I mean I m technicall enough to realise charging a 50kwh battery is easy, charging a 80kwh battery it's not as easy but duable however charging 900kwh battery Trucks it's a massive Fire Risk it would take a regular supercharger 10 hours at 100kwh, it would melt & fail before the truck reach 50% as superchargers only supposed to provide high energy boost for 5 to 15 minutes not 10 hours 😳 1 Mw chargers are great on paper however good luck getting that

    • @mbak7801
      @mbak7801 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      This is where LFP batteries come in. There is no fire risk. They are heavier than NMC but weight and size is less critical in a lorry (within reason) and have a cycle count of around 3000+. My local city uses electric double decker busses that are charged every night. Maybe Dave could visit one of these operators and see how they do it. It would not be on ordinary chargers.

    • @martinhammett8121
      @martinhammett8121 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Saw an everything electric pod cast today, about a company that manages school bus charging in America they have over 500 busses they manage (control the charging & sell back to the grid ect) The buses have 200kwh batteries which can discharge in 30 mins to the grid & will re-charge to 90% in around 90 mins

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Are you serious? What about the Megachargers already in operation and recharging semis on a daily basis run by PepsiCo in the USA? You think it takes 10 hours? Or that it catches fire? Maybe you think PepsiCo who run them are total idiots and give no thought to how they work? They use a 750kW charger with a patented high efficiency cooling cable and can replace up to 70% of range in just half an hour. None have caught fire. It baffles me that anyone could think their fag packet calculations are accurate and Tesla and Pepsi are both total idiots. Particularly when all this data is on Tesla website.

  • @alanhowemusic2457
    @alanhowemusic2457 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Most model 3 Tesla’s went into fleet ownership. General public not much take up.

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Data?

    • @mbak7801
      @mbak7801 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Tesla cars brought by private individuals under a lease are recorded as fleet sales. This has been covered ad nauseum. The general public are the main purchasers.

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      seems a contradiction of your name; openminded.

    • @alanhowemusic2457
      @alanhowemusic2457 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@mbak7801 Thank you for your comment reply. I was not aware of that.

  • @keithdenton8386
    @keithdenton8386 5 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    You could be a weatherman. They make things up as well. Example you said the Model 2 was put on the back burner. You also complain about the channels that talk rubbish about EVs and make things up. You made more up in this video than Macmaster, does in his.

    • @mbak7801
      @mbak7801 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Weathermen do not make anything up. They are very accurate within strict mathematical limits. Look at chaos theory and butterfly effect. To predict weather on a certain date and place six months away will never be achievable.

  • @MrDAVIDATKIN
    @MrDAVIDATKIN 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Just seen Tesla has opened at least 20 more superchargers up in the UK, nice one Elon. Bring on the charging price war.

  • @MrCCDART
    @MrCCDART 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think it is a little unfair to say legacy auto did not make decent EVs from the ground up. I know things have moved on but what about the BMW i3, Nisan leaf ( was affordable compared to Tesla at the time and sold in big numbers ), Renault Zoe, the VW I range jaguar iPace). Recently the BMW have done new concept, Dacia Spring, Renault 5. Don’t get me wrong but I do like Tesla and it was the first company to show what was possible the model S being one of the first with “Useable” range.

    • @davetakesiton
      @davetakesiton  5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I think a decent EV is one that is popular, everybody wants one and those that have one buy another. There are few EVs that qualify

  • @paulkearsley9509
    @paulkearsley9509 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I am a Tesla believer, but not in their dates 😂