ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.ย. 2024
- Presidential historian Allan Lichtman makes his prediction for who will win the race for the White House between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. #CNN #News
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Even the one he got 'wrong' won the popular vote.
And the Supreme Court awarding Florida to Bush
Actually fully won, the RW SCOTUS intervened to STOP THE RECOUNT (of which Trump had PLENTY in 2020!)
Which counts as a wrong prediction, since ethe popular vote does not determine elections.
@@scaryperi3051 But the Supreme Court was the one who decided the election, not necessarily the people.
@@scaryperi3051 It wasn't the popular vote that meant Gore won, it was the fact he'd won Florida and the scumbag RW SCOTUS stopped the count so he could not have it.
Just because he predicted it doesn't mean she automatically wins, we got to do the rest of the work and vote.
Oh you men can't stand it keep on women hating your lonly sad 😅😅😅life
Yep, don't be assuming and complacent. Get off your ass and vote blue, and encourage many others around you to do the same
Sounds like we got an election denier here…
@dee6816 dude you're not even from America you obviously haven't seen democRATS inflate everything five fold.
voting won't matter as long as we have a broken and fraudulent 'electoral college' in place, that can choose the candidate for us -
which censors millions of citizens votes by doing so ~ this nation needs a POPULAR vote system only.
truth was, the 2016 election was rigged, by our own Government - like it was in 2000 ~ and we ended up with two bufoons
It’s a shame that the US election eats up so much money. That money could do so much good in so many different areas.
louiselloyd1523 - I absolutely agree. I have thought this for years.
Very true but a sad reality; Just bc kids are hungry in Africa doesn’t mean I shouldn’t eat - Dave Chapelle
Perhaps the vast majority of the Dems' money ends up in the hands of working Americans who pay taxes and buy goods and services from other good Americans who pay taxes and buy goods and services here. Trump's money goes to his rich lawyers who likely buy luxury goods and spend money overseas on trips to Russia.
@@louiselloyd1523 US Election is frugal compared here in the Philippines. Political candidates spend so much that is always inflationary after the election period. Thereafter the plunder begins in order to have money to spend for the next election period. It's a vicious cycle between the corrupt and being corrupted, the former always having a net profit and the latter become poorer and poorer.
LICHTMAN got it right 10/10 including GORE, in my opinion. The Supreme Court got it wrong, in Florida, by prematurely terminating an orderly Recount of votes.
What if this POS scotus does something similar for this election?
@@dee6816 that's the PLAN, The Traitorous Republickkkan SUPREME COURT is in DUMPYS pocket
I've predicted 10 of the last 11 correctly, and I predict Trump in 2024. Lichtman just waited to see whether the economy was headed into recession before making his prediction. haha
9/10
Trump won
@@JohnnyAllan-vj7sj. Election denying is pathetic. Just suck it up and accept defeat.
*Larry Burkett's book on "Giving and Tithing" drew me closer to God and helped my spirituality. 2020 was a year I literally lived it. I cashed in my life savings and gave it all away. My total giving amounted to 40,000 dollars. Everyone thought I was delusional. Today, 1 receive 85,000 dollars every two months. I have a property in Calabasas, CA, and travel a lot. God has promoted me more than once and opened doors for me to live beyond my dreams. God kept to his promises to and for me*
There's wonder working power in following Kingdom principles on giving and tithing. Hallelujah!
But then, how do you get all that in that period of time? What is it you do please, mind sharing?
It is the digital market. That's been the secret to this wealth transfer. A lot of folks in the US and abroad are getting so much from it, God has been good to my household Thank you Jesus
Big thanks to Ms. Susan Jane Christy❤️✨💯May God bless Susan Christy services,she have changed thousands of lives globally
How can I start this digital market, any guidelines and how can I reach out to her?
ironically, the vast majority of Americans seem to have forgotten the fundamental ideology the US was founded on. United we stand, divided we fall. Best regards from a Dane
Thank you. That's why almost all of America is voting for the pro American candidate and that is President Trump, NOT the two weak traitors giving all our hard earned tax dollars to the illegals. We're done with the worst inflation in 100 years, thanks to Biden Harris.
Thank you Arne!
Thank you. 🎉🎉🎉💕☮
🐪👣Harris supporting Open Borders while Tampon 🍡Tim investing in 30ft Ladders 🪜
@@HelePeluWhatever little security binkie you need to clutch to feel better about yourself…
10/10 he got Gore right. We know what happened with that.
Election denier Gore who was never arrested for election interference?
Yep hes 100% correct every time.
I Literally was Coming to right this ! 😂 My man is on point always . Gore won.
9 out of 10 then. He got Biden wrong with that logic
sounds like election denial
Same people criticizing Lichtman were stoked when he predicted Trump to win in 2016.
Exactly 💯
He's wrong, because he thinks there is no social unrest. Also, Trump and Harris haven't debated yet, which is pivotal.... he's also not considering the huge number of black people who will be abandoning ship on the Democratic party. They will not get 90% of us voting for Kamala this year. They will be shocked and appalled at the numbers. Just watch.
Technically his model was wrong in 2016 because he predicted Trump to win the popular vote
@@KtotheGNaa… all of my black friends and myself are voting against 45. He’s unacceptable!
@@KtotheGyou white fo’sho you is
Polls don’t vote people does. I choose SANITY over chaos. 💙💙
Boy, do we have different definitions of sanity! Her coming out all smiles after rehearsing for three days and also having ABC ganging up on him that’s what sanity is lol. You can say you have a plan over and over again but until you actually have an actual plan and tell people what it is and how you’re gonna help save the economy It’s just empty words. If she’s so great why hasn’t she been doing anything the last four years except lying to us about Biden?
Don’t forget this means nothing! VOTE, people!!
I've never heard of this Bozo before. Funny how he appears on CNN as the polls show Harris in the tank.
@@pec757have you had your head buried in the ground???
@@pec757 Exactly. He's a fraud. NO ONE wants Communism in America!! Kommila the Communist is having to literally pay people to attend her "rallies" and was caught the other day busing them in from another state. She's a phony too and has already stolen two of Trump's policies. She changes accents like she changes her clothes. Border czar my butt.
THIS is the most important comment!!
@@defendukraine181 Apparently
He got Gore correct as well, technically.....
Exactly I was just about to say that
Gore did win. But we all know what happened.
We all know Al Gore won.
No he didn't, because Gore was never president
@@jaari2544 SUPREME COURT STOPED THE VOTE COUNT!
Imagine where we'd be had Gore won instead of Bush.
I can only remember and imagine if things had gone differently back in the Bush/Gore days. Really wish Gore had won. Really wish Hillary Clinton had won. The U.S. is in a mess. Never have we been so divided. Never have we seen so many lies and misinformation. It's a new world. It would lovely to have peace in the world for a time.
@conuregirl007 The 60s were exponentially worse, with several politically driven bombings, arson, assassinations, riots, protests, arrests, war, etc.
I get your point.
@@conuregirl007it's divided because of COVID, because Biden didn't unite anyone. I feel bad for Biden, seeing him decline he should be in a old folks home. We were all better off under Trump, country was at peace, everything was a lot cheaper.
The one he got wrong should have won
Yeah, 2000 was a stolen election. Lichtman even proved to the US commission on Civil Rights that Gore truly won Florida and therefore won the electoral college.
The Republicans on SCOTUS and Jeb Bush swooped in and stole the election for George Bush.
According to him
He might end up saying the same this time.
@@4lackofbetter He could be wrong yes. Anything he got wrong is wrong. Historically he's done really well in is predictions. That said, he could obviously be wrong despite the accuracy of the keys, which are considered ground breaking.
Yeah, he got 10/10. Gore was an anomaly.
election denialism! you're a threat to democracy. stop inciting insurrection
All these were easily predictable except 2000 and 2016. Of those two, he is 50/50.
Didn’t Gore actually win? The Supreme Court gave Bush the White House. That election came down to review of ballots by a state government controlled by the brother of the eventual winner.
Gore's election was stolen in FL by the Bush family.
@@rickmartin9420 wtf are you talking about. What an arbitrary self proclaimed statistic to try and feel better about your beliefs
"Tonight, I say this to my Republican colleagues who are defending the indefensible: There will come a day when Donald Trump is gone, but your dishonor will remain," Liz Chaney
Nobody cares about Liz cheney
Liz Cheney loves war, who cares what she thinks?
@@anthonywilson4181 People care about honor and the Constitution.
@@anthonywilson4181 she may have a cabinet level appointment in the new administration, so a lot of maga clowns may be caring about their back door deals very soon
The called Dick Chaney War criminal of the week
Wait... Why did they act like his response to childcare was a response? It was a word salad that had zero to do with the question. The man is a toddler.
Trump just gave a poster-child excuse WHY we need proper childcare - because his parents clearly failed at his.
You dems are pathetic. 😂
That's how kammy answers EVERY question.
AKA, we can cut child care expenses with the money we bring in. How do toddlers miss that.??
Isn't it clear? He said that him and Marco Rubio produced Ivanka. Don't ask me if it's true or if it makes sense but that's what he said.
Once she’s in office, time to add more Supreme Court justices and fix that corrupt system with checks and balances. Go blue.
I do trust this historian. He has a great deal of insight and wisdom. His predictions are also non partisan.
He got 2000 wrong and then made up excuses for why he got it wrong. Horrible predictor yet the media loves him for some reason
He was up there saying T would win in 2016 and everyone shot him down... he stands by his predictions without bias. I do like in another interview that he reminded people that it also involves people going to the polls to vote... so we still need to come out in droves!!
@@EricaGamet He got 2000 wrong lmao
He's a putz, Harris is toast!
@@lucaskyte-tremblay924 Okay, so only 90%, so like an A- in school. But also, we don't really know because of the confusion with the Florida ballots and SCOTUS deciding the whole thing. But at the very least, an A-. Unlike some, he takes all the punditry and feelings out of it.
STOP putting Trump translators on your show. Nothing Trump said comes close to what your guest said.
Actually, he prediction of Gore was correct but Florida cheated him out of it. Decade later the supreme court said Gore actually won. Anyone remember this?
We are still the underdog, we must get out the vote!
CHINESE NEWS NETWORK C NN IS JUST CRAZY!!! This GUY IS A LIGHTWEIGHT AND WRONG AND MOST IMPORTANTLY BIASED DEMOCRAT 🤦🏻♂️
💙💙💙💙💙💙
Trump2024 Let’s make America straight again
So go vote. Nobody is stopping you, drama queen
How can you be the underdog? HOW?! Kamala Harris is still in office as VP, this Alan Licterman guy, is saying Kamala is going to win who has predicted 9/10, the simpsons predicted as well Kamala is going to win, etc.
Kamala is not the underdog! Trump is, he has 34 felonies, he got shot at and survived an assisanation attempt, he may even face jail time, and so on.
Before receiving the title of "Distinguished Professor" from the American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman earned a Ph.D. specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.
In addition to lecturing in the U.S. and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also been an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
He routinely provides political commentary and is best known for his election forecasting.
Allen was just a teacher, he is not a scientist.
@@vongtaing6059 since when are they mutually exclusive?
@@vongtaing6059 Allan
@@vongtaing6059he created his forecast model with a scientist though
You've got ur cut & paste skills down...😅
This idea that brining down inflation will also drive down costs is ridiculous. There has always been inflation and always will be. Prices have always gone up and always will. Perhaps in the short term some prices will go down temporarily, but in the long term they will keep going up. I'm old enough to remember when a gallon of gas was .35 cents. A loaf of bread was less than a dollar. In my life time there have been market crashes and high inflation and then lowered inflation, but the one constant is that the cost of everything will keep going up no matter what.
I totally agree with you.
And that there is the very problem. There has to be a ceiling. Is bread going to be $20 someday? Is rent going to be $10,000 a month at some point?
Wages are not keeping up. What does the future here look like? How will it be sustainable?
@@cmichole Years ago I was a teamster. I worked in a warehouse that distributed health food to health food stores. It was then that I had the idea that the unions could strike for less money, but only if the owners agreed to lower prices. The only problem with that is the owner of that business was at the mercy of the manufacturers who set their prices based on their costs: Labor, materials, infrastructure etc...and so the viscous cycle continues. It's always going to be and always has been a battle between wages and the cost of goods, or the cost of doing business. Having said that corporations are greedy and I'm sure many of them could lower their prices rather than paying their CEOs so much. Until that gets fixed we'll just keep going around and around and around.
Gore probably did win
And the lawyer that stopped recount in Florida is now Chief Justice on the Supreme Court. political compensation.
@@Rustea314 Yep, funny how that works...
Discounting hanging chad's was the con. They put old voting machines in Democrat districts to intentionally create votes with hanging chads. Republican districts got the new voting machines.
Gore 100% won and was robbed. We paid the price over the last two decades.
He did. Roger Stone and Jeb Bush stole that election for sure.
More like definitely
Based on a probability of 50%, no one can be so lucky to predict 10/10 times right. Get a pollster who is as accurate as Prof Lichtman? Lol
It isn’t a probability of 50% throughout the last 40 years
The problem with polls is that it is extremely easy to skew a poll to get the results that you want
Just a matter of who you ask or how you ask the questions
If you ask a question in a negative way, you will get a negative response 90% of the time
He also mentioned that the keys work well, all the way back to 1860.
@@HuskyOwner-bl1jf I don't think Professor Lichtman does any polls. Or even pays attention to them.
Based on that logic, nobody can ever be so lucky to win 10 hands of blackjack in a row.... that's such a stupid thing to think, wow.
Haven’t been contacted by the polls but The truth is I don’t really care how the debate goes. I’m a conservative, voting for Harris, because I believe Mr Trump to be a threat to our Republic. Full stop.
You’re a good person! You and all conservatives that will cross party line will go down in history as great people!
I don't think of trump as a Republican so not voting for him does not count as going against your party. Thank you
@@lindarosealot I agree with this. Trump is an outlier.
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
How?
He wasn't wrong on Gore.
Yep…he was lmao
Also he said that he only predicts for the popular vote after that to explain why he was wrong and then preceded to predict a trump victory in 2016 which would be false under those pretences…so which is it???
@@lucaskyte-tremblay924No he wasn’t
@@user-uv9ew1uj7c Yep. Cope harder
I sympathize with the Gore explanation. But I don't like the slippery slope of "yeah but" explanations. Then you open the door to saying that he was wrong about Biden 2020 but for cheating. Which I am sure you agree the 2020 fraud is an unproven allegation. So am just as happy to take the 9/10 hit, which is still pretty decent statistically.
We will not assume we have this in the bag, keep pushing to victory 💙💙💙💙
I do not understand how you blue people hate America so bad…. Are you blind to what has happened in the last 3.5 years? How could you be so ignorant. I bet a million dollars that if for some reason Kamala drops out and they pick another stooge. All you dems will be chanting their name and loving everything they say. You guys don’t care who it is.
As long as Trump isn’t it. Stop voting with your feelings and think about you and your families well being. If dems win the country will become a 3rd world country with poverty and wealthy. No in between.
Right! If we continue as we have the last 4yrs...the economy and this country will only get worse!! Kamala is the one who's been making the decision, because we know that Biden is not mentally capable..and we are in a horrible state right now!!
Stop project 2025
@@andreaberry-wf3gt no such thing, and most of the claims are propaganda..
@@richbrake9910you lie, these are written for Trump. JD Vance has written on the first page. Trump is the biggest liar, he lies for votes
Trump!!!🇺🇸2024!!!! Stop the corrupt left! They're gonna try & stop Trump anyway they can.
there is no projet 2025 , dont believe fake media
richbrake9910 - The Heritage Foundation has been skulking around since the 1980's. Do your research.
It's not expensive if you're a millionaire
Gore won
That SUPREME COURT gave it to Bush, stole it from Gore, that's what WANNABE DIC..TATOR DUMPY has set up this time
.....you should be banned, election-denier.....
No he didn't it.
Actually, Gore was ahead in the recount before the Supreme Court intervened and named their own chosen winner.
Actually 10 out of 10 were corrected, however, the republican judge favored Bush over Gore.
The one he “missed” was Gore, except Gore won. So not a miss.
Do you remember a President Gore!?
Wow! You’re only the 1,392,392th person to make the same exact comment!
Do all you CNN viewers share one brain…or something???
@@linusfingesi2222 He predicts who will win the election, not who will become the President. Sometimes that's a different matter. He's a scientist, not a psychic, at least that's not what the 13 keys are about.
Election denier
@@linusfingesi2222Nope
Pollsters must hate this guy.
They love him. He is a propagandist.
@serviustullus7204 bless your idiotic heart.
@@serviustullus7204and you are a lying cult member
THIS GUY IS A DEMOCRAT AND HE IS SO BIASED BYOND BELIEVE 🤦🏻♂️
The news networks hate him. Pollsters hate him. Drama kings/queens hate him. And now Republicans (MAGA) hate him.
Why dont anyone explain tarrifs! Its taxes on the consumer!
Actually the wrong one was stolen
20% of a families cost for Childcare is a problem.
Guess what. It’s not going anywhere. Nor is the cost of bread and eggs. Dealing with inflation and cutting taxes will help with child care. Why are democrats even concerned about child care?? They’re to busy aborting babies anyway.
For the sake of our country, I hope Prof. Lichtman is correct.
Let’s make it happen and vote blue all the way down ballot
Welcome to communism, where everyone owns nothing, unless you're the top 1%
Name a single policy that you’re excited for that Harris has not taken from Trump or flip flopped on and lied about and then I will respect your decision.
@50CentOffBetterHelp
Harris is a champion for women's reproductive/abortion rights. Who knows where Trump stands on these issues because he says something new each time he is asked. Also, Harris wants to raise the child care tax credit.
Trump? "Child care is child care" and he will raise tariffs on China. WTF?
@@50CentOffBetterHelp Codifying reproductive rights, legislating against price gouging, boosting housing supply through investments and pledging to sign the bipartisan border bill endorsed by border patrol you know the one trump killed because he cares so much about the border...
WTF we are in BIG Trouble if she wins
Of course the pundits dont like lichman, he's usually right and they're usually wrong, no one likes looking incompetent and stupid😂💙
Yup, they only have their worthless (2c) opinions. He has a scientific methodology that's been empirically proven right again and again.
DUMP AND BALLOTS R STILL IN BUSINESS !!! HELL NO 🤦🏻♂️
Yeah, they NEED to present this as a horse race. They can’t have Lichtman undermining that. But you can bet that if he had predicted Trump, they’d definitely be talking about it a lot more.
@@UltraVega924 exactly, well put
Welcome to communism, where everyone owns nothing, unless you're the top 1%
Let's hope he goes 10 of 11 this November!
No one is hoping that.
No
Gore actually won, but the Supreme Court told florida nahhhhh
Im not betting on anything, vote and silence this scepticism
es correcto.
Praying he’s right & now 9 of 10!!! Harris / Walz 2025 🇺🇸💙
Star wars must have really made a boo boo
Welcome to communism, where everyone owns nothing, unless you're the top 1%
Russia 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 Iran and China 🇨🇳 wants her to win too! Because they know she’s an idiot!
I guess he is very wrong
God Bless Tim Walz's family for endorsing Trump.
TRUMP ❤ NOV 5th 2024 VOTE FOR OUR FUTURE 18-35 years old young Women, and men VOTE with your heart ❤️ but be aware of who you’re voting for and why! Happy Choosing!!
When you're right, you're right. 😏
And when you’re stupid, you’re stupid 😏
He was wrong in 2000…
@@lucaskyte-tremblay924 Arguably, yet look how close that was. Fascinating.
@@helena-mc85 What’s fascinating is after he was called out for getting 2000 wrong he said his predictions only account for the popular vote but then he picked trump in 2016 who lost the popular vote so which is it?
And when you're stupid you're stupid!
Easy to throw rocks when you’re not willing to put it out to yourself. This dude is spot on in Trumper’s know it.
Bull sh*t if that happens, America is screwed.
I hate Trump. But it's just a prediction, no matter his success in the past. Like there is no stock guru, there is no POTUS picker. Keep working hard. Big turnout favors Democrats. Everyone do your civic duty and vote. Count them. We'll find out. Believe Harris can win. Work as hard as you can to get her over the finish line.
I love Trump
They say love is blind, Not true… You are 😂
@gman6559 Trumpnecks are the New Moonies. I'm not a kind person. This is true. Wouldn't lose any sleep, if Trumpnecks collectively sip Trump Kool Aid. Lose no sleep at all.
Prof Litchmann's model is the best of the rest! Unlike Nate Silver who averages polls and draws beautiful graphs.
This clown actually thinks that the economy is strong.
I hope he is correct!
When Bush/Cheney throw in, you can be pretty sure, the die is cast...that and Hell is experiencing a cold snap. 😂
Vote blue!
HE ALSO PREDICTED BIDEN WILL STAY IN THE RACE 😂🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
He didn't predict that. He was told that was what gonna happen by a close alley to Biden. He was just given the wrong information.
It's impossible to predict someone's personal decision
@@jordandavis3953typical excuses
No, he didn't. You have no proof.
@@1953fords he's not a time traveler
There were 10 presidential elections since 1984, making the odds of guessing all their outcomes correctly 1/1024. With thousands of so called "experts" trying their luck at guessing the outcomes, some inevitably get lucky and get a 10/10 score, attributing their success to their ingenious method.
Incorrect. The odds are not 50/50 of a win by either party. The polls demonstrate that some election outcomes are mostly determined before this so-called historian opens his mouth.
In fact, you have about a 0.98% chance of getting 9 out of 10 calls correct.
Even if the weighting of a win is changed to 60-40 from 50-50, there is only a 4.03% chance that the 60% candidate choice will win 9 times out of 10.
Child care costs are around $122 billion and the tariffs would raise less than $600 billion a year.
Why do you guys keep on saying 9/10 times??? He has explained so many times why he has 10/10. Maybe you guys should actually listen.
We do. Accidents happen. You're one of the accidents!
@@memberofthelambily1340 I was wrong but should have been right just sounds so cringe.
Trump makes the best word salad ever, but the ingredients are rotten.
America you can write history in November!!! Vote 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
How you are going to bring down the cost of childcare? Trump: jAina(China) is going to pay for your child care and it's going to be sooo beautiful.
And he will do it "very, very quickly" - "the likes of which no one has every seen before"
Tariffs will cost the tax payers money, they predict an extra $4000 per year. How does that help pay for child care. If anything you have less money to pay for anything not more money in the bank
Like the US/Mexico wall, he's going to "MAKE" China pay for childcare.
DEMENTIA DONNIE IS HISTORY... MAGAots ARE OVER
Putin endorses Kamala, He knows Comrade Kamala is just a puppet, he can play her just like a fiddle.
He'll be wrong for the second time...
Everyone in America knows that when tariffs go up for imports or any other residual taxes, major corporations pass those expenses on to the consumer. Corporations are not going to pay those expenses, we are going to pay those costs.
What a pathetic response to the Professor. He's a respected academic who has a stunning track record on predicting elections. Give the man some credit!
A lot of people will be out of work that's why?
He's a good guesser!
@@MichaelTimmons-ef3luit’s not a guess. He has a quantitative model that he’s been transparent about
He makes word salad.
Yes, but it's not a tasty Garden Salad with a nice Bacon Ranch dressing. It's chocked full of dandelions, arugula and crap folks can't identify!
@@r.f.pennington746 or just full of nothing substantial.
It's the only salad he has ever been related to...
trumps bullshit word salad?
@@jacksondrake-lost He could sell those as a side to his Trump Steaks
Thanks for having me!
You guy, according to your “prediction keys”, Biden would Beat Trump which is totally incorrect.
Confused how you determined the scandal key to be True when their was bipartisan backlash over the Afghanistan Withdrawal, Biden's handling of classified documents, and the covering up of his cognitive decline.
I love you Allan lichtman I watch your channel sent started it
Vote! Don’t trust polls don’t believe this guy. Vote and vote blue
“Dear Jesus, Place Truth in the center of every heart. Return this nation to its rightful place under the Dominion of God. Amen.”
Vote Trump!
@@MichaelTimmons-ef3luamen , yes we
Need Trump and Vance at white house.
Welcome to the Whitehouse Kamala Harris
Kamala will be the new President! Woootwoooo!!!
Still, it seems appropriate to assume Harris is the underdog. In the last two elections, Trump did two or three points better than the polls suggested he would.
Ostensibly, some of his supporters were embarrassed they support Trump, uncomfortable speaking their true mind out loud, and would lie to the pollsters.
He was a novel swing from the Obama years the first time around and the incumbent the 2nd time so it's not like there aren't viable explanations but no one apparently noticed that he underperformed all his 2024 primary polling against Haley. He could just as easily underperform the general election polls if pollsters overcorrected in his direction after 2016 and 2020.
Finally its now his 3rd run politicians tend to lose ground the more they run as they accumulate baggage but who knows the electorate likes grading him and no one else on an insane curve.
Voter registration data suggested that polls were underestimating Trump in 2020. This year it suggests the polls are underestimating Harris (young black and Latino women are being under-sampled)
Your wrong. The people will vote
“Carry the Light of Truth to all corners of this country and expose Satan’s deceit, his lies and his plans for what they are. Help us to maintain our God-given rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Amen.”
That's why you should vote Trump!
8:50 Why are you putting these intelligent words into his mouth? Clearly, he doesn’t understand the economics of it at all. Don’t make him sound more intelligent than he is. Just say, he doesn’t have a policy on child care, nor the correct understanding of the economics behind it.
I trust Allan more than anything else going on. He made me mad in 2016 but he was definitely right even when everyone else was wrong.
"Single-handedly the best thing he can do to help with childcare is drive down the cost of everything... by driving down these costs on everyday products, by dealing with inflation."
Dude, what are you talking about? Trump's tariffs would increase the costs of everyday products and increase inflation.
I'm still amazed that the general population doesn't have a clue how tariffs actually come back full circle and bite the folks who imposed it in the first place. Jeepers, and I'm not even an economic major...
@@r.f.pennington746 Right? Some people did NOT pay attention at all in school and it shows!
@@r.f.pennington746it's really not rocket science that every single expense that a business incurs is passed on to their consumers. I'm amazed at how few people understand that tariffs will end up costing consumers money.
Yes , we need to change leadership to end these wars . I don’t want to send our daughters and sons to an overseas police war . Let’s have peace .
We need Trump. Kamala is not respected by any country. She is the face of weakness. Look at our border. Look at Aurora Colorado. She is an incompetent loser like everyone in the entire democratic party! Hell they elected Biden (by cheating) and she is worse!
When China raised tariffs on Australian goods, the Australian producers suffered for a few years, as sales dropped off severely.
In the end, Australia just found new markets for its goods and China imported subsitute goods at higher prices from other countries.
So this was a lose-lose scenario, but in the long haul, Australia was the winner, because its sales went back up by selling to other markets and eventually China dropped its tariffs against Australia allowing Australia to increase its sales of good once more.
Do yourself a favor and go out in the REAL WORLD and ask the first 10 people you see who they're voting for.
Depends on if that person is in Atlanta, GA, or Minot, ND.
9 of 10 will say Trump.FACT!
This is very a very inaccurate way to determine the whole country's choices. You'll find clumps of voters for one party or another depending where you are
@@joannebottcher9779 Nobody's seen a "clump" of Harris supports just out in the wild.
@@DrSeuss-nv9hw I live 20 minutes outside of Atlanta, Georgia (Gwinnett county) and I am voting Trump. My family is voting Trump. My work colleageus are voting Trump. People may hate Trump they may like Trump, but life was better under Trump. Facts. And more black men in Atlanta (especially younger black men) are going for Trump than ever before.
I STAND WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP MAGA2024
This was before KAMALA demolished DonOLD in the debate
Liz Cheney is where she belongs , in the war party.
God knows she and her Daddy makes tons of $$$ from it!
Republicans are the defense spending party and party of guns
I usually don’t vote but this year I'll be voting for Kamala . Majority of the reason is because Trump supports are annoying. Too obsessed . Very WEIRD
Love to you buddy 🫂
@@sturmisturm6123 sending love you you too buddy
He got the gore/bush race right, the supreme court got it wrong.
YESSSSSSSSSS💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
Welcome to communism, where everyone owns nothing, unless you're the top 1%
nope
Not the brightest bulb in the chandelier are Justass!
@@MichaelTimmons-ef3luWHY ARE YOU JEALOUS?? 🤡
Trump for life
Lmao. Is this the same man who said Joe Biden should stay in the race because he has a better chance of winning the election than Kamala Harris??? 🤣🤣🤣
Yes because he thought there would be party in-fighting. Because there wasn't in-fighting she doesn't lose the contest key.
We'll never know if Biden stayed in but that doesn't matter now does it? Harris is going to steamroll the rambler.
He said he was smarter.. And he actually is..
Biden lied to everyone through his entire political career, and he still managed to become President..
Kamelas biggest achievement, is to make modern slaves out of innocent people in jail.
@K_M.G continue to doubt a 40 year track record of sucess all you want. He said Biden still gave the Democrats a great chance of winning due to the incumbent key. But he applaud the Democrats for quickly uniting behind Kamala Harris immediately following Biden's departure from the race. He still stands behind his belief thst Biden could have won the 2024 presidential race. But that's in the past. I'm sure you're loved his 2016 prediction. While you bashed his prediction. Just like you're doing now. I love when internet fools try to criticize professor Lichtman's 40 year track record. You only look like fools when his prediction is proven correct yet again.
Actually he never made a final prediction on Biden. But he’s the guy who’s been right every election. Womp, womp for MAGA.
@@grekounas If you think Biden had any chance of winning the election against Trump if he had stayed in, you're clearly delusional just like Alan Lichtman is 🤣Also, she is currently FARRRR behind where both Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden were for their election.
He was not wrong about 2000.
Everybody vote for Kamala Harris 2024!
Okay. And what’s his prediction for the way our country looks during the next four years after millions of more illegal immigrants are here, the police are defunded, and inflation is in the stratosphere?
exactly
Right on!
👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾💯💯💯💯💯💯🤙🤙🤙🤙. Ain’t THAT the truth. What is wrong with people….LOOK AT THIS COUNTRY AND THE MESS WE HAVE ……how can they support that “cackling” word salad freakazoid clown🤷🏼♀️🤷🏻♂️. America has gone rogue 🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘totally OFF THE CHAIN.
Republicans voted down a solid border bill they were about to approve after Trump commanded them not to, "so dems don't get a win", 'defund the police' is an old and only fringe slogan and is not a major concern, and inflation is a global phenomena that is far worse in other countries - NOT any party's 'fault' and that is increasingly becoming more stable, with the exception of corporate price gouging.
In sum, you've been told to fear bogeymen living under the bed to be duped into voting for a fraudster, compulsive liar, narcissistic wannabe dictator who loves giving tax cuts to billionaires only mildly less than he loves himself and himself only.
I'm not going to mince words here or feign being 'respectful of both sides'. It's been long enough that ANYONE that votes for Trump is either massively gullible and misinformed, or simply of poor character. I'm not being 'mean' by saying so. Trump is a con artist and a VILE human being.
Calling him a human being is even being generous. Even psychopaths usually display an occasional ounce of empathy towards some others and introspection, qualities that Trump has never had. ...Except for himself.
Doing some actual fact-checking, You know that's a thing. So much as being greatly exaggerated like the immigration numbers. Be actually informed.
What a relief! Lichtman uses science, and it holds up. I hope he is right this time ,and our democracy is saved.
EARLY VOTING CAN PREVENT UNWANTED PRESIDENCY.
Go and vote all blue ballot down, don’t forget local elections! 💙💙🌊
Child care in my area range from $1,200-$1,750 a month. These parents need to be help. JD Vance said, get relatives to help babysit the children. Some Grandparents still work😮. My grandparents retired at 55 years old. Those days are gone. We need to stop voting in out of touch trust fund babies to run our country. And the Maga thinking individuals. Put serious real adults in these positions.
When your groceries are half the price under Trump, these things will be affordable again
Oh, he got 2000 right too. It was stolen from Gore and us.
BLACK WOMAN FOR TRUMP WAVE 24❤️❤️🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
❤
Thank you sweetheart. God bless you. We will win. Only brain damaged democrats vote Harris!
Yeah right😅
I'll be fighting against this shit
Do something more productive vote blue!! Maga the party of chaos and lies and corruption. Vote blue💙💙💙
Trump did not answer the questions to the specific point of child care- not tariffs. Sidelined the question...
VP KAMALA HARRIS IS GOING TO BE A GREAT PRESIDENT‼️💙🗳🌊🇺🇲🗽⚖️🙏💙🙏💙
Don’t vote on the gender based
If this woman wins and never debated and the citizens never nominated her as a presidential candidate. This country is full of bullshyt.
What’s the Trump love? His MAGA organization hates black
People. He talks a lot but only talks 💩
Lichtman is a complete crank, but hey if he says Harris has got this then great. We still need to vote like she is 10 points down in the polling.
I’m glad Kamala will win,enough with this orange traitor 🗳️🇺🇸
Womjan eciting
Don't get complacent. VOTE 💙💙
Serious question - can you name one single policy she's advocating for that you're in agreement with? In what way is Trump a traitor? Or are you just mindlessly parroting what you've been told to think?
@@redonk1740I agree with her abortion, climate, social security, and Healthcare policies. I know Trump understands the "concept" of plans and policies so let me know if you need a further explanation. It can be confusing to navigate for some.
@@jojobinks18 Are you aware of what could happen to our country if Kamala became president of our country? This country it will be involve in World War 3 and the economy it’s gonna be worse every day , and if we as Americans citizens want to do America great again our unique and best option is DONALD TRUMP 🎉❤ TRUMP 2024
Trump 2024
As an economics major here are my predictions: Kamala will win:
PA: by 100,000 votes
MI: by 250,000
WI: by 200,000
AZ: by 60,000
NV: by 50,000
GA: by 45,000
MN: by 500,000
NC by 25,000
VA by 150,000
As a wealthy individual I'd be happy to bet your numbers are completely wrong and Trump will win all of those states. Care to make it interesting? How about $10M?
@@bingohhhhhhhhhhhhgiven that Trump has never won the popular vote, given that there was no "red wave" in 2022 and that Trump is even more toxic now that he's a convicted felon, you'd easily lose your $10 million. Being rich doesn't mean being smart and being able to read the room.
LMAO! Put down the whiskey and sober up. If you Democrats win there will be hell to pay. Guaranteed! Real Americans are pissed!
Kamala will lose NC and a few other states you've mentioned above. Mark my words.
Thank you, I, can sleep 🛌 well. ✨🇺🇸✨🗽✨⚖️✨🎯✨🎉❤