Iceland Eruption Stabilizes But What About The Future: Geologist Analysis
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ย. 2024
- An update by geology professor Shawn Willsey on the eruption that began on Aug 22 in Iceland, north of Grindavik. A look at the latest data and news.
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Thanks for the update Shawn.
Amanda Jo, what can I say? Nice camera work! As an amateur I know how satisfying it is when all your effort results in a single photo (out of hundreds or thousands) where everything was just right and the result is that perfect image. Thanks for sharing!
I really appreciate your frequent and systematic updates, focussed on the geological progression of these eruptive events, as opposed to the click-baity and erratic posts in the media and on some other channels. This was one of your best!
Wow! Amanda-Jo does indeed have a talented eye for creating great photos. They are all beautiful and the spatter cone image is powerful and I think National Geographic quality! Thank you Shawn for the update and for your clear, thoughtful perspective on potential concerns for future eruptions. This whole eruption series has been fascinating.
Thank you for always appreciated updates. Kudos to Amanda Jo for her beautiful photography.
Iceland Review tells us that the majority of new residents in Vogar are from Grindavik.
"According to Gunnar Axel, the majority of the new residents are from Grindavík".
How awful if these people have to move yet again!
Thanks for addressing the air quality. That is my concern.
Terrific photos, Mandie Jo! We should see more of them. 😀Thanks as always, Shawn. I appreciate your dedication to keeping us informed and educated on the Iceland eruptions.
Thanks for the update Shawn. Regarding the GPS deflation I notice during this event the graphs show a drop to the level which the previous inflation cycle started at. On the previous eruptions the deflation was only 50 - 60% and stepping up at each subsequent inflation.
Wow! Great shots Amanda Jo!!! 😮
Hi Shawn, this was a remarkable video because you were answering my questions about the up coming trend of magma development and the safe guarding of towns north of the power plant. In a thousand years everything will really be known, I see major tectonic regions are being more active now. Thank you for all of your geological adventures.
What a great team. Thanks Shawn and AmandaJo for this update. Appreciate all the work that goes into these videos.
Thanks for another great update!! So fascinating to follow this sequence of eruptions! Thanks also for sharing Amanda Jo’s beautiful photography!
A very informative update, thanks Prof. Great photos Amanda Jo, more of these please
Thanks for another great update! Tell Amanda Jo that her photos are superb.
Just a FYI, pertinent to this post and geology, there is an article in today's New York Times titled "Imperiled by Volcanic Eruptions, Iceland Scoops Up Answers From the Deep."
Thanks Shawn for the update. Yes it is very interesting about when and where it will erupt next. Also would like to thank Amanda Jo for all the good information she sends you. Have a good Labor Day weekend. 😊
Good afternoon 😊 Wonderful to see another update - always full of information and accurate insight on this event. Thanks 🙏🏼 Shawn ✨🌸
Thank you for sharing with us all the great information and video footage. 😊
Just love watching these updates. I don’t seem to have time these days to do lots of my own research so I appreciate so much your updates prof
Amanda Jo, your photos are so beautiful! Thank you for sharing them with us.
Greetings from Amsterdam (Holland)! Thank you for update...it's fascinating👍
Agree
Thanks for all the hard work on these videos!
Hey Shawn, thank you so much for another excellent update! Your analysis is always much appreciated :) The lava jets are slowing down for sure, but are still pretty strong and long lasting as seen on the mbl Sandhóll webcam, especially the left vent. I wonder: is this due to higher and/or different gas content, or some kind of a nozzle effect, maybe...?
Interesting thoughts about the eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula and what defensive measures would be necessary if they moved further north, hmmm...
Great news about your upcoming interview with Thor Thordarson! I look forward to it :)
And kudos to @MandieJo: she is a very talented photographer, indeed :)
It is interesting that at the start of the present eruption the GPS data dropped to the approximate level as the start of the previous eruption. All the other eruptions at start dropped (GPS data) to a higher level then the previous one.
Shawn,
Thank you very these great updates.
I hope you have restful weekend.
Cheers,
Rik Spector
Ferndale, WA
Amanda Jo has some real photographic talent!
Thank you Shawn. Love Amanda-Jos photos.
Appreciate the update, and your concern about Highway 41. That would be major.
Really appreciate your analysis and perspectives. We are travelling to Iceland soon and will continue to monitor your posts. Keep up the great work!
Seems like some of this lovely volcanic fog has drifted northward... at least it looks really, really, really hazy here in Akureyri.
Note that this SW-NE (blue) line of current events between Grindavik and Vogar lies parallel to the three 1921-23 events. It is thus also possible imho that the next eruptions will not be nearer to Vogar (pointing northwards) but give birth to a new westerly eruption zone or line along the cracks and fissures which are well visible on the Goople picture.
Thanks for the update shawn it makes it easier to understand what is going on in iceland.
@shawnwillsey Hey Shawn, just a question that came into my mind while watching today and the way "we think it behaves normal, or similar to the previous eruption". Why did the Fjagradsfall eruptions, especially the first one didn't start with a massive "boom" ~1000-2000 m³/s and then slowly fizzle down but stay at a few tens m³/s all the time and then reopen fizzures near the spot while its completle different to this since the eruption moved towards Svartsengy. It looks like the fissures are fairly close but still a "completly different" behaviour. Thanks for your great work and all the informations you provide about the situation.
edit:
For The road protection, maybe its better to build a berm at most parts then a tunnel ~10m deep for a section and channel the lava over it since it might be better heat protected to build below then to go over something that can build up several meters fairly quick.
Tunneld would be way to expensive and in most cases only get plugged.
@@michaelrupf776 not tunnel the lava, tunnel the road and let the lava free flow over the section, build a berm to channel it to the tunnel section.
Fagradalsfjall was not a same sort of fissure eruption, it was not following the tectonic fractures (there are not any at that area).
@@freyalarsen6233 It was a fissure eruption. It started with a 700 meter fissure and then extended north in a straight line.
Thank you for all you do.
Thanks for this update, especially your thoughts about planning for the future. I love looking at the small settlements between Vogar and the Reykjavik area... have been on many drives through that area on visits to my Icelandic family. It would be a shame if that area was covered by a future lava flow, but of course it's hard to predict what will happen. I'm fascinated by the planning aspect and how geology interacts with public policy... hope to hear more about it!
Thank you Shawn great video and thanks to Amanda Jo for the stunning pictures ,that was an extra gift ,stay safe !
Thank you Shawn, Your great Work Always appreciated ✌️
Thanks for the look out. Much appreciated! ♥️
.. Can look grim in one to three years if that pattern stays this way..
18:52 Fabulous photos by Amanda Jo!
Thank you so much for these updates. ❤
Vogar and Grindavik are very different, the former having half the elevation differential (30M?) and twice the distance from the eruption (7KM). For now there is a pretty large area for lava to spread out in, and most importantly, cool as it creeps forth. Putting a 5M berm to the south of Rte 41 once the lava gets to within 3KM makes sense. That area is also right next to a big amount of cool water ( Ocean at 5 degrees C) vs a limited amount of water (Blue Lagoon at 40 degrees C), so attempts to cool a lava front would be way more efficient and likely successful. When you build the berm, install a 2ft diameter pipe with a perpendicular input from the north side every 1/2KM. Flood that area and slow the lava to where it builds its own berm/levee. Back on your channel on Nov 20, I said that the best approach for Grindavik was a trench from Hagafell down to that small bay east of town. Gather and slightly redirect the lava to the water. Nice 2% slope to establish a levee on the west side and to create a permanent deep channel for future flows. This would mean sacrificing a half dozen farms along the coast, which I am sure no politician had the gumption to suggest. The result of not doing that was to basically lose the town as lava builds up behind a huge berm and now the slope down to the town is 3 degrees.. Find out who made that decision and take them out of the loop in the future. That lava (Dec 2023) should have immediately gone into the ocean on the east side, not completely around the town and maybe into the ocean the following Decmber after destroying everything in its path, several times. Repeat, put lava in the ocean ASAP, every time. VOG goes away in a week. Lava is there forever. Look at the topography. 95% of the time the lava will flow downhill, and if one can get a directed flow, the inertia will cause the lava to continue along that path. In looking a Vogar, ignore the town and look at protecting the road, unless everyone wants to take a ferry to the airport in the future. And if someone brings up VOG, send them away.
Not that I have thought about this at all. ;-)
There is no way to save the road. The best is to let the lava flow over it and rebuild it in a few weeks. We always have the road on the south coast to reach the airport.
Amanda Jo is super talented! Beautiful stuff!
Thanks for the update
Love Amanda Jo's photos! Simply beautiful!
WOW, stunning photos AmandaJo.
The probability to move west to eldvorp 1km, on the boundary of the subsurface chamber, might be higher than stepping north 4km away from.
Thanks Shawn.. as always great update.. I wonder how this will all pan out.. it’s certainly more powerful this time the fountains are spectacular.. definitely food for thought re infrastructures in possible future eruptions
Incredible photography Amanda-Jo!
Thank you Shawn great update very informative 😊
Many thanks for such great updates.x
Looks like the best option would be to pick a least populated area for target and then make a "channel/berm" structure to guide it there. blast a channel for material to pile up on the low side of the ditch formed. Depending on the grade you could shallow it out near the road as long as it was deep enough to steer the lava above. Then let it take the road at that point just like it has the road near Blue Lagoon and just keep working to reopen each time. The heat would be too unpredictable on any concrete or metal structure to know how it would effect it, but both are highly impacted by heat that would weaken them. Give it a path to the ocean where it has least impact. Strictly speaking the channel is not needed but if you blasted and moved the material right there, it would save a lot of hauling and quarrying elsewhere. Strange thing is if you blasted five foot deep, it would give you enough broken material to put ten feet or so of positive berm for a depth of fifteen feet along it. Those are just guesses depending on the material but nothing compresses back to same volume as it was before blasting/crushing. I am sure experts are out there who would be able to calculate that number. Just a thought, but I am not an engineer.
Amanda Jo is a magnificent photographer. I aspire to taking photos that beautiful. Thanks for the update.
Amanda Jo, such beautiful photography! 😍
Definitely foggy.... glad one of the cameras is showing something.
Thanks for the update
Thank you for the update!
Thanks for the update. If the eruptions continue head north west, It also brings up the problem of lava reaching the ocean, and not all that far from the airport, either. Things are reaching a checkmate point where there are no more good moves. Although, I suppose it could erupt another time, or two right where the current fissure is, without doing too much harm.
If it reaches the ocean to the north then we always have a road on the south coast
@@Steinninn I was thinking more about the gas and ash clouds that would produce impacting air traffic at the airport, or even people in Reykjavik. Of course, that depends on wind direction and the town may be far enough away to not need evacuation, but that depends on where the lava flow is.
thank you Shawn
Appreciate updates still travelling and not always good internet thanks
Looks like SNOW at Thingvellir tonight!
Rewatching, if the blue lagoon is to the west or southwest of that fissure. Then it is a mountain we are looking at in front of the fountaining.
There are many problems with protecting the main road from Reykjavik to the Keflavik airport and other towns in the west. I hope that the lava flows don’t go that far. Those rifts and fissures between the present vents and Vogar don’t have much sign of lava flows in the recent past. I wonder if the geologists have been able to date when those fractures formed.
I noticed on Google today a story about Mt Edgecumbe Alaska, “showing sign” of magma movement and that it could “implode” ?
Any comments you could share on the next show ?
Todays was informative as ever, Shawn. Thanks.
Thank you..👍Di…Cumbria.
Here in the Berkshires we have a saying about bears, that may pertain to Icelandic Vulcanizim... Anywhere IT wants!
Love the geochemistry info. and Photography!!! Ty
Aloha from Makaha
Shawn Willsey, amazing content it was really good
Another great one Dude, thanks.
Merci beaucoup pour vos commentaires 😊
A lava tunnel to channel flow under an elevated highway toward the ocean would be a suggestion. Easier said than done. It would need thick embankments to protect the road from heat and an insulated pathway to keep the lava from solidifying while moving through. In other word, somehow make a manmade lava tunnel. The highway is critical and must not be closed for days and weeks. How to accomplish this at a reasonable cost is difficult to image.
Not practical. The physics won't work out. Structural integrity at 1200 C is a big civil engineering question mark. Eruption pattern looks like it's pushing North, this thing might end up in a place where it can just go on. This thing might go on for a 100 years.
It is hard to predict the location of the future lava flow. Some thoughts on the alternative solutions: There is a possibility of a long detour using the coast road through Hafnir, Grindavik, and Thorlakshofn in case of problems at the nothern coast of Reykjanes. There is a possibility of boat shuttle connection from Keflavik to Hafnarfjörður (or all the way to Reykjavik), there is a possibility of airplane shuttle from Keflavik airport to Reykjavik airport.
@@freyalarsen6233 We have a selection of costly and inconvenient choices, for sure. Car ferries could be a good feasible option in the event of lava flows blocking the road for long periods, if there are ports available for loading and unloading.
Please, would it be possible for you to look back at Campi Flegrei? It is characterized as restlees, but with all this that is happening , worries us . Thank you in advance Shawn, your opinion would mean a lot.Regards from Germany
If the deflation is already over, then the current eruption is 2-3 days earlier than the previous one at doing so despite the eruption itself still going relatively strong. Could be a sign that deep magma inflow has increased now that all of the old stock has been flushed out.
Hi maybe I’m late to the game but why is there magna in the subsurface in Iceland ? I have learned so much from you and your team. I guess I missed that class. Thank you🦩
Amanda Jo's pictures are truly beautiful.
Thanks.
Hi Shawn! It's building!
Watching your update from Myvatn, northern Icekand. Going to look at other interesting volcanic landscapes tomorrow ...Krafla and Hverir.
Speaking personally, I'm fascinated by this system as it is
Bad air everywhere (Boise is 😛). Different fire source though.
I hope that we make 6 km inflatable ball so humidity goes to the top of the ball and it turns into snow and we can drop the temperature of these volcanoes Earthquakes are happening in Quebec and Japan because these volcanoes are erupting and we need to find a way to stop these volcanoes from erupting
Where does the plate boundary intersect the row of fissures involved in this series of eruptions?
I'm not sure a defensive wall will need to go around Vogar. The main road, Reykjanesbraut is raised and there's plenty of real estate there for the lava to spread out without too much human intervention.
Could be true.
How does the mid-Atlantic ridge as mapped relate to these eruptions?
I did see somebody wrote that the erruptions so far has all be from the european plate. This erruption is very close to the border of the european and american plates. So for the next erruption to move further north it has to go through the american plate. can that impact where the next erruption will be ?
You can see on the GPS stations where are they located, which tectonic plate. Svartsengi is on the NA plate. The eruptions so far have not occured on the European and neither on the NA plate, they occured on the boundary. The plate boundary is not a line, it is much wider than that. But the north-south and east-west movement of the GPS stations indicates quite precisely the tectonic plate they are located on.
Vogar has Vog? Ar!
Amanda Jo, you have some real talent and should leverage it into a business.
Volcanic fog or “vog” in Vogar is not a good thing for them.
Iceland Home Delivery 👍 💯
Those homes and businesses don't have the lobbying power or the Blue Lagoon so I doubt they'll get the same level of protection courtesy of the public coffers.
The Blue Lagoon is a spin-off from the power plant. I remember when it was free of charge, the old one was located just opposite the power plant. The power plant is what is the most important. They don't have any other source of heating and warm water for Keflavik and the towns around (but they have started drilling for a new one).
The farms around Grindavik are not protected either. Fortunately, the lava flow has not reached to them (yet).
💙💛
Radioactive ☢️ !
Old 2500 year it going to north east slowly
Our own air quality here in Southern Idaho has worsened within the last day as well 🤔
Poker Face ?