What's next for the Ukraine war? You’re being watched RIGHT NOW and the only way to stop it is by using a VPN. Avoid hacks and protect your privacy before it’s too late! NordVPN offers 65% Off on a 2-year plan +4 extra months! Try it for 30 days or GET YOUR CASH BACK! nordvpn.com/davidlin Submit questions to us for the next episode! Steve Hanke's email: hanke@jhu.edu My email: david@thedavidlinreport.com
I want them to see all and know... I'm not afraid...VPN ain't jack... Do really believe that a VPN is so encrypted that THEY can't get around it...paleeeese...I'm selling some commercial real estate in New York...a bridge actually...
Nice video, traders show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. Their dedication to continuous learning is inspiring. I'm especially grateful to Shea Ardolf, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Investing in Bitcoin is the wisest asset to be in, not trying to shit on other stocks, it just won’t outperform Bitcoin over pretty much any long time horizon…reality over feelings!!
A crash and bullish market provides equal high-yield potential, it's all about information and strategy application, I've seen folks make huge 7figure profit in a crashing market and pull it off much easily in a bull market Unequivocally the crash/recession is getting somebody somewhere rich.
On occasion you can beat the market with blind luck, but I wouldn't depend on it. Having a science background there is a saying, 'Luck favors the informed', I've found it to be true, allowed me in great part to retire early.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
My CFA Lina Dineikiene a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I appreciate this share. I sent her an email and I am keen on getting to talk to her particularly. Lady looks really great though even with the exams and other stuff.
*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*
Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can't decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
Same, I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Ann Marie strunk, has been an amazing experience.
I'm favoured, $90K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America,, all thanks to Ms Ann Marie strunk 😊🎉
I dont think asking a Economics Prof to comment about Ukraine invading Russia is relevant to a show about economics or finance. Its also not his area of expertise. Prof Henke is outstanding, and really good at helping to explain the complex. Really enjoy the show.
A correction to the professor: if general public buys freshly issued government debt, the money supply indeed goes down, since the money flows from the public (money holding sector) to the government, which is considered as money "neutral" sector. By the same logic, if the FED buys government debt, there is no change in the money supply, since the newly created government deposit is not included in the money supply (until distributed to the economy).
Considering balance sheet alone is as logically and economically unsound as considering interest rates alone.. It is ultimately the quantity of money chasing relatively scarce goods, services and assets that drive inflation. It is worrying when a professor of economics completely ignores one side or the other 😮
If the treasury department sells me a bond and I write a check out and give it to the government, how has the money supply shrunk? The government will just spend the money into the economy in a less efficient way than I would have - what am I missing?
It shrinks temporarily, as the government is concidered as money "neutral" sector. Once the government spends it, and the money goes back into the economy, the money supply goes back to the same level as initially. But it is true that the professor made a mistake - see also my latest comment.
His financial outlook differs a lot from Michael Howell's. And I found Howell more accurate. Some of the things Hanke says doesn't really make sense, plus he has a bit of an attitude. Feel a bit sorry for David that he has to put up with it :)
Sorry professor, but I disagree with your view on the economy in Russia vs. Europe. Most countries in Europe are doing fine (some better than others obviously). Russia on the other hand has upward trending double digit inflation and their central bank has increased their interest rate to 18%. Their oil and gas revenues are decreasing (even though China and India buy a lot from them) and it seems to me that Russia will not be able to financially sustain a high intensity war effort for very long despite their vast natural ressources. Europe has the energy situation under control and can deal with the cut supply of cheap oil and gas from Russia (thanks to new LNG infrastructure and accelerated green energy transformation). I'm not a military expert either but I think the level of support for Ukraine from likeminded, democratic nations in the west will largely determine the outcome of the war. Europe (with a few minor exceptions) has been ramping up and are determined for the long haul. I very much hope the same from our well equipped US friends but it seems like it will depend a lot on who wins the presidential election. That is also one of the main reasons why I'm rooting for Harris. Btw. I'm from Denmark which is currently the biggest donor of bilateral support to Ukraine by percentage of GDP. And this has very strong support from the voters. You can see how your country ranks in terms of support here: www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Professor Hanke is absolutely correct that the only way to restore fiscal sanity and sustainability is to adopt a Fiscal Responsibility Amendment to the Constitution through an Article V Convention of States, if necessary.
US / NATO need to be seen to be winning the war to justify spending billions of dollars before the US election . Proxy war - Motivated by US military complex
David. Please have Prof. Steve Keen on. For a brief few seconds, Prof. Hanke was going down a very similar path as Keen does when speaking about balance sheet transfers (debits & credits) between entities - treasury accounts, central bank accounts, non-bank public accounts, commercial banks, etc.
I don't see how buying a bond reduces money supply. The payment for the bond does leave the buyers account, but the payment goes into the treasury account where the funds are needed in order to be spent back into the economy, either globally or locally. The money supply should increase due to the interest paid on the bond. Please explain where I am mistaken.
I agree. The Prof still seems to think Russia = Soviet Union. No military power stays the same over the long run. One had to admit Russia performed extremely poorly in this conflict.
Is it possible to arrange a discussion between Prof. Hanke and Jeff Snider from Eurodoller university. They are I think on the opposite site of about if they can know the quantity of money but in the end they are projecting the same would be interesting to see where they agree and where they don't agree.
It's about time that Ukraine was allowed to hit back at Russia who is the aggressor. Think that with the low morale of the Russian troops and lack of experienced soldiers this was not totally surprising. Although Henke thinks that Ukrainian soldiers are going into the 'meat grinder', it may be the opposite. Russia is still fighting with a WW2 mentality and tactics. Ukraine has shown the world that it has a far more intelligent and capable military than Russia. Who would have bet a nickel on Finland standing up to Russia when it was attacked on Nov 30, 1939 by 600,000 soviet troops. Although Finland was largely equipped with WW1 equipment when the war broke out, soon Russia 'donated' military equipment to Finland so they could fight more effectively. It was not until the 90's that Boris Yeltsin admitted that the war was an act of Russian aggression.
And who was the "aggressor" from 2014 onwards, maybe you should ask the ethnic Russians of the Donbass, also care to explain the US backed coup that started this off, no it all Russia's fault. You clearly have very little knowledge of this conflict if you think Ukraine has shown it is better militarily than Russia, that is laughable as the map constantly turning red shows, its not Russia snatching old men and youngsters off the street is it?
If the debt is bought by the public, the money supply would stay the same, because the issuance of new debt increases the money supply, but is then offset by the purchase by the public
David, respectfully, why do you ask a NON-EXPERT on the Ukraine-Russia war for their opinion? Why not ask Prof. Hanke what his opinion is on Roman pottery? It is utterly pointless and uninformative, because as someone who is not an expert, but follows the Ukraine-Russia war closely, most of the statements that Prof. Hanke makes are false or misleading, which you would expect from a person who has no real in-depth knowledge of the happenings in the war. Perhaps stick to just economics.
With all due respect the to prof, even when the government sell David the debt, the money supply is not reduced. They are going to take the money and spend it, exactly as if David spent it. And even more, the mere fact that they issued that debt has to increase the money supply because they have to give you back your money and interest. That interest comes from "think air". Granted if the FED monetize the debt they will create the additional debt and interest.
Missing point that money is borrowed from current financial assets (investments)and paid out of feds general account for spending on goods or the poor who have a high propensity to spend and not save. Net effect is financial assets (not David’s checking account) liquidated for gov bonds and then gov spends (with deficits) on goods, services, and transfer payments to spenders… equals less capital investments and more dollars chasing limited goods, especially as we are re-shoring production.
Hanke talks as though M2 is some sort of proxy for the money supply, it isn't. He also seems to think that the CPI is a measure of monetary inflation, which it REALLY isn't!!! The guy has learned nothing on 40 years...
If we don’t get a recession I think it’s the nail in the coffin for monetarists like hanke. In his book, a 5% m2 contraction should be a recession. His view is fiscal doesn’t matter but the past year and a half are proving that fiscal seems to matter - spending at ww2 levels. So ya I’m leaning more towards Michael Howell and Joseph wangs views that money supply needs to account for fiscal.
Texas requires a balanced budget. We have a surplus “rainy day” fund. It should be returned to taxpayers but compared to other states and US government we are in great shape. Bush cut income tax while increasing spending on a disastrous “preemptive” foreign war, and Medicare Part D, good for me but bad for younger citizens.
The money that went from David Lins checking account to the Treasury is inflationary, because the government is spending that money, but David would have saved that money. So private saving became government spending. Of course that is inflationary, by definition. So according to the professor, if we all sent our savings to government, and government spent it, that would not cause inflation. I think the professor needs to rethink his weird logic.
He’s saying it’s existing money so no new money is created. Since really only commercial banks and fed can create money (credit). Hanke has an example of 2008 post GFC where there was a ton of spending but it was borrowed from existing dollars (aka not monetized) so that’s why we did not have inflation in early 2010s - per his view. Contrast that with Covid where all the debt was monetized by fed and commercial banks and we had inflation. Btw hanke is missing commercial banks from his example here. Commercial banks love that Yellen is issuing tbills instead of securities right now since they borrow short and lend long. If commercial banks buy tbills that can lead to monetary inflation. Which according to Michael Howell is what is happening now.
@@Hueyck That reasoning doesn't sound logical to me. Dont you think that if everybody started to save their money right now and spent as little as possible, that would lead to deflation? If nobody spends money, prices must go down in order to sell the stuff out there. So even if no new money was created, people could still affect inflation by their spending behavior. And by definition, the same would be true in the opposite direction. If everybody took out every last penny from their savings and spent it right now, that would lead to price inflation, despite the fact that no new money was created. An equivalent outcome would happen if you send your savings to the treasury, and let the goverment spend your money.
I don’t understand why it’s the CHANGE in the money supply and not the QUANTITY of money that he is primarily concerned with. I get it that if there’s a superabundance of money injected into the economy, it’ll cause inflation. I don’t understand why that then becomes an instantaneous reset level from which supply must be added to.
This incursion is a theater, military games. Please understand the government standing army can't be used if war is not declared, same army can't be used on inner territory of the country, US have national guards for that and Russia have interior military. This situation involved bunch of paramilitary, military contractors, inmates who agreed to military contract from both sides. NATO also split in two and private NATO 2.0 is in there
My confusion is as follows: Hanke says the debt is not inflationary if the buyer is other than the fed, so no change to money supply. But when asked what is the solution to the debt, it’s three options, increase taxes (not on horizon), reduce spending (also not on horizon) or inflation. So there is a disconnect, or a missing link, in these two explanations. What is it?
He’s saying it’s borrowed out of existing dollars so no inflation. But if commercial banks or fed buys it’s inflationary. I think what he’s saying is that if they stop monetizing debt then that means they have to reduce spending (option 2). Option 3 inflation means they continue to monetize debt. Of course other money theories have different views.
@@Hueyck yes but we stopped monetizing the debt, yet we keep spending more and more. Perhaps he’s implying private buyers will stop buying our debt (this being the “missing link”). If so, he should say that out loud.
WHAT IS THE NEED FOR FED TO RIG ELECTION, WE HAVE ISRAELI LOBBY, MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, AND ALL OTHER LOBBIES FOR THAT; WELL, FED THINKS IT IS ITS DUTY TO MANIPULATE INTEREST RATES SO THAT IT CAN SAVE AS MANY BUSINESSES AS IT CAN... IF MANIPULATING INTEREST ON LONG DATED TREASURIES LOWER TO HELP HOUSING FINANCE, IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB
A few things they neglect to mention. First, the Ukrainians pulled their best troops from a rapidly deteriorating defensive line in the Donbass for this attack. The Russians did NOT pull a significant number from their offensive lines. This will enable the Russians to take much more territory in the next few months. Also, the objective of the attack seems to have been Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. A few groups of the advance forces of Ukraine made it to within 50 km. They will get no farther. As Professor Hanke says, this will end poorly for the Ukrainian forces. All part of the Zelenskyy circus show. Circus shows never win wars.
The last invasion into Russia during the end of W.W.II ended with zero of the invaders living to tell about it. It started the same way with the invading army entering through a NAZi friendly Ukraine. There will be no serenders or prisoners. It was a death sentence.
Learn some proper history. A very small fraction of Ukrainians were friendly with NAZIS, only because they believed that Germans were better than Soviets. Yes, some of them committed war crimes. To say that Ukraine as a whole was “Nazi friendly “ is like stating that all Hollywood was communist in 1950s etc.
@@user-rl5wm1cm1k No they are not. Here is the ratio of cas ualties by both sides. Compare the ratio : Russia : 120 thousand Ukraine: 70 thousand Russia is losing an average of 1000 soldiers a day. That is awful sorry
Amazes me how an Economics Professor, has it so spot on with the Geopolitics, Yet the so-called experts don't have any idea. Keep up the great work on informing the masses.
I came here to say the same thing but you’ve done it for me 😅 I think the main issue is that Hanke is able to be reasoned, logical & pragmatic whereas the “experts” May indeed understand reality yet they are unable to convey this due to the propaganda machine.
39:20 Deficits and debt sold to non-banks does not reduce the money supply as Hanke says.. Yes, it pulls money from non bank deposit liabilities,. temporarily,.. but then what does the government do with that cash it received? It spends it,. and it does wind up in the checking accounts of the general economy. The only way the money supply can shrink is if the government pays off some of its debt. Or it reduces deficits below or to a percent no more than the real growth in the economy as Hanke mentioned earlier. I do agree that when the primary dealers buy debt from the treasury and then the Fed buys it from the primary dealers in exchange for Fed deposit reserves,.. that that does not necessarily cause inflation because,. 1. those reserves cannot leave the banking system, they're not accessible to the general public and economy,.. unless the bank uses those reserves to generate a loan. Those loans have an obligation to be paid back and therefore ebb and flow with economic activity. And much of why Japan doesn't have price inflation within the country,.. (and why US inflation was relatively low between 2009 and 2019).. although on the other hand it's destroying the yen relative to other currencies. But Japan also has a trade surplus.,.. It brings in reserves from other countries,.. . where the US has a trade deficit sending dollars out to the world market where they are placed in reserves in foreign banks.. Which are used as a medium of exchange for transactions in the eurodollar market and/or to invest in US treasuries. When the Fed reduces rates,...the cost of US imports will go up as demand for US dollars contracts. Back to inflation,... 2. Just because there are Fed reserve deposits available to the primary dealer banks,.. doesn't mean the money will get loaned out to increase the money supply. This is kind of like the saying that came out of the GFC,... the government can try to stimulate, but at some point it's like "pushing on a string" if no one wants or can afford or has the qualifications to borrow. If inflation is not considered a function of US debt, because it's not included in money supply due to double counting or something (I'd have to think through that),.. then US debt and it's growth is a great proxy for inflation,.. or at least the portion of the debt not on the Fed's balance sheet.
Well David, good to see you are not growing up at all. Maybe you should start a comedy show, but I'm afraid some of your jokes already exist...you should work on your creativity.
Trump who is considered a front runner for president has stated two things to RU and UA leaders. To the UA leaders, once Trump is in, if they do not sit down for peace negotiations with RU, the US will stop sending any and all military equipment and weapons; to the RU leadership, Trump said once he's in, RU need to sit for peace negotiations or else the US will reinvigorate support for UA by sending them many weapons. After the recent incursion onto 'Old Russia' territory, Putin has stated that he will no longer consider peace negotiations with UA and especially not their current leader.
Great talk as usual David. Does it not surprise you, and anyone else, that Russia could possibly be caught by surprise? I find it incredible and not possible
US supporting the Ukraine war both scares me and makes me ashamed. Cokd war veteran. I served in the former West Germany, 1982-84. Pirmesens, Massweiler, and Neureut Kaserne outside Karlsruhe.
Russia didn't have a chance against Ukraine. It is putting Putin under severe pressure from inside out. And there are 2 types of russian soldiers, hired and conscription. What to do with them because losses of hired soldiers doesn't cause a reaction in russian people. Conscription do. Momentum is to Ukraine. Hanke always has an opnion, but in my opnion he doesn't have a clue of what is really going on. The russian bloggers are panicing because of the strength of the attack and the are pro Kremlin
What's next for the Ukraine war?
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Submit questions to us for the next episode!
Steve Hanke's email: hanke@jhu.edu
My email: david@thedavidlinreport.com
I want them to see all and know... I'm not afraid...VPN ain't jack... Do really believe that a VPN is so encrypted that THEY can't get around it...paleeeese...I'm selling some commercial real estate in New York...a bridge actually...
"One time, when you were sleeping, I put myself in your mouth, and had my friend take a picture." 💩
~Mr. Hanky's last words
Nice video, traders show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. Their dedication to continuous learning is inspiring. I'm especially grateful to Shea Ardolf, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Shea Ardolf program is widely available online..
Trading with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investors who have little or no time to monitor their trades..
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Venturing into new investment avenues shows your proactive approach to financial growth amidst these uncertain times.
A crash and bullish market provides equal high-yield potential, it's all about information and strategy application, I've seen folks make huge 7figure profit in a crashing market and pull it off much easily in a bull market Unequivocally the crash/recession is getting somebody somewhere rich.
On occasion you can beat the market with blind luck, but I wouldn't depend on it. Having a science background there is a saying, 'Luck favors the informed', I've found it to be true, allowed me in great part to retire early.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
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My CFA Lina Dineikiene a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I appreciate this share. I sent her an email and I am keen on getting to talk to her particularly. Lady looks really great though even with the exams and other stuff.
I miss the days where smart people said “I don’t know”
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Waking up every 14th of each month to $210,000 it’s a blessing to I and my family… Big gratitude to Ann Marie strunk 🙌
Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can't decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
Same, I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Ann Marie strunk, has been an amazing experience.
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I hear this before, on Russian tv 😱,
Proffesor "Tobarish Haenke"... It smell like rubles
I dont think asking a Economics Prof to comment about Ukraine invading Russia is relevant to a show about economics or finance. Its also not his area of expertise. Prof Henke is outstanding, and really good at helping to explain the complex. Really enjoy the show.
You don't think that global conflicts affect the economy?
Global wars do have an economic effect as professor Hanke explained.
Professor Hankey is a Renaissance man, he's not a one-trick pony.
@@abubaca2683 I think Prof. Hanke does not understand Russia at all so He is not in position to make comments on that conflict.
My favorite Prof. Learning is lifelong ! Thank you David and I hope Mr. Hanke continues to be doing well.
David is acting stupid on purpose...or, he's afraid of the truth.
He has a PhD in Economics. How about calling him DOCTOR Hanke?
A correction to the professor: if general public buys freshly issued government debt, the money supply indeed goes down, since the money flows from the public (money holding sector) to the government, which is considered as money "neutral" sector. By the same logic, if the FED buys government debt, there is no change in the money supply, since the newly created government deposit is not included in the money supply (until distributed to the economy).
"Howdy Ho!"
Considering balance sheet alone is as logically and economically unsound as considering interest rates alone.. It is ultimately the quantity of money chasing relatively scarce goods, services and assets that drive inflation. It is worrying when a professor of economics completely ignores one side or the other 😮
he is always wrong about the market
What makes something scare? Too much money. That is money supply. No money no honey.
@@MS-cs7gt when money is abundant, everything becomes scarce
If the treasury department sells me a bond and I write a check out and give it to the government, how has the money supply shrunk? The government will just spend the money into the economy in a less efficient way than I would have - what am I missing?
It shrinks temporarily, as the government is concidered as money "neutral" sector. Once the government spends it, and the money goes back into the economy, the money supply goes back to the same level as initially.
But it is true that the professor made a mistake - see also my latest comment.
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust"
Super interview. Hanke cannot be confused and clearly explains things
Thank you David and Professor Hanke 🙏
His financial outlook differs a lot from Michael Howell's. And I found Howell more accurate. Some of the things Hanke says doesn't really make sense, plus he has a bit of an attitude. Feel a bit sorry for David that he has to put up with it :)
Sorry professor, but I disagree with your view on the economy in Russia vs. Europe. Most countries in Europe are doing fine (some better than others obviously). Russia on the other hand has upward trending double digit inflation and their central bank has increased their interest rate to 18%. Their oil and gas revenues are decreasing (even though China and India buy a lot from them) and it seems to me that Russia will not be able to financially sustain a high intensity war effort for very long despite their vast natural ressources. Europe has the energy situation under control and can deal with the cut supply of cheap oil and gas from Russia (thanks to new LNG infrastructure and accelerated green energy transformation).
I'm not a military expert either but I think the level of support for Ukraine from likeminded, democratic nations in the west will largely determine the outcome of the war. Europe (with a few minor exceptions) has been ramping up and are determined for the long haul. I very much hope the same from our well equipped US friends but it seems like it will depend a lot on who wins the presidential election. That is also one of the main reasons why I'm rooting for Harris. Btw. I'm from Denmark which is currently the biggest donor of bilateral support to Ukraine by percentage of GDP. And this has very strong support from the voters. You can see how your country ranks in terms of support here:
www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Thank you very much for your comment! I would write all of it the same.
Professor Hanke is absolutely correct that the only way to restore fiscal sanity and sustainability is to adopt a Fiscal Responsibility Amendment to the Constitution through an Article V Convention of States, if necessary.
Are you going to run for office and win on that platform?
"The first land invasion of Russia since World War Two" doesn't sound so good.
Exactly. Nobody confronts the major issues of the day. The president we have is dead😢
US / NATO need to be seen to be winning the war to justify spending billions of dollars before the US election .
Proxy war - Motivated by US military complex
@mme4211A dead bear?? Ooooo.... interesting, tell me more....
But this was done by a part of what was "Russia". It is like a civil war, not a foreign war.
The real Russia was start in the Kiev oblast, so... this is funny
Always good to know you take care of your guests 🙏 even with simple respectful gestures, questions and interactions 🙏
Hanks is spot in regarding the attack on Russia
David, a question for Dr. Hanke, Do you have a "Hanke Panke Index" to use as a Barometer for the overall economic health ???
Very good, enjoyable and instructive, thank you both!
David. Please have Prof. Steve Keen on. For a brief few seconds, Prof. Hanke was going down a very similar path as Keen does when speaking about balance sheet transfers (debits & credits) between entities - treasury accounts, central bank accounts, non-bank public accounts, commercial banks, etc.
Hahah Steve frequently responds to David’s questions in a way that implies he’s annoyed by David’s question
Good to see the 2 of you! Ok let me hear what you say !
I don't see how buying a bond reduces money supply. The payment for the bond does leave the buyers account, but the payment goes into the treasury account where the funds are needed in order to be spent back into the economy, either globally or locally. The money supply should increase due to the interest paid on the bond. Please explain where I am mistaken.
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Gre Gre Gre Great interview Thanks
Might does not win wars. Will does.
I agree. The Prof still seems to think Russia = Soviet Union. No military power stays the same over the long run. One had to admit Russia performed extremely poorly in this conflict.
@@Decipher101 Relying on mercenaries. No country ever won a war that way, let alone conquered a country.
Is it possible to arrange a discussion between Prof. Hanke and Jeff Snider from Eurodoller university. They are I think on the opposite site of about if they can know the quantity of money but in the end they are projecting the same would be interesting to see where they agree and where they don't agree.
I wonder if anyone is making money following the advice of either one of them?
I don't see a balanced budget happening anytime soon.
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It's about time that Ukraine was allowed to hit back at Russia who is the aggressor. Think that with the low morale of the Russian troops and lack of experienced soldiers this was not totally surprising. Although Henke thinks that Ukrainian soldiers are going into the 'meat grinder', it may be the opposite. Russia is still fighting with a WW2 mentality and tactics.
Ukraine has shown the world that it has a far more intelligent and capable military than Russia.
Who would have bet a nickel on Finland standing up to Russia when it was attacked on Nov 30, 1939 by 600,000 soviet troops.
Although Finland was largely equipped with WW1 equipment when the war broke out, soon Russia 'donated' military equipment to Finland so they could fight more effectively.
It was not until the 90's that Boris Yeltsin admitted that the war was an act of Russian aggression.
And who was the "aggressor" from 2014 onwards, maybe you should ask the ethnic Russians of the Donbass, also care to explain the US backed coup that started this off, no it all Russia's fault. You clearly have very little knowledge of this conflict if you think Ukraine has shown it is better militarily than Russia, that is laughable as the map constantly turning red shows, its not Russia snatching old men and youngsters off the street is it?
"Counterattacks are potentially lethal" This joker man.
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Awesome job guys
Seems like good grasp on topic.
10:40 "I thought the idea was not to escalate before the election". I suggest that the opposite is true.
If the debt is bought by the public, the money supply would stay the same, because the issuance of new debt increases the money supply, but is then offset by the purchase by the public
David, respectfully, why do you ask a NON-EXPERT on the Ukraine-Russia war for their opinion? Why not ask Prof. Hanke what his opinion is on Roman pottery? It is utterly pointless and uninformative, because as someone who is not an expert, but follows the Ukraine-Russia war closely, most of the statements that Prof. Hanke makes are false or misleading, which you would expect from a person who has no real in-depth knowledge of the happenings in the war. Perhaps stick to just economics.
Amen to that.
SH is the master of Money Supply.. I’ve noticed the M2 Money Supply is rising again, not contracting.. Quite significantly as a matter of fact..!!!!
With all due respect the to prof, even when the government sell David the debt, the money supply is not reduced. They are going to take the money and spend it, exactly as if David spent it. And even more, the mere fact that they issued that debt has to increase the money supply because they have to give you back your money and interest. That interest comes from "think air". Granted if the FED monetize the debt they will create the additional debt and interest.
Mongols did it, Pols did it...before Napoleon
Versidium's whitepaper blew me away. VRS is the future of crypto!
Missing point that money is borrowed from current financial assets (investments)and paid out of feds general account for spending on goods or the poor who have a high propensity to spend and not save. Net effect is financial assets (not David’s checking account) liquidated for gov bonds and then gov spends (with deficits) on goods, services, and transfer payments to spenders… equals less capital investments and more dollars chasing limited goods, especially as we are re-shoring production.
Hanke talks as though M2 is some sort of proxy for the money supply, it isn't. He also seems to think that the CPI is a measure of monetary inflation, which it REALLY isn't!!! The guy has learned nothing on 40 years...
If we don’t get a recession I think it’s the nail in the coffin for monetarists like hanke. In his book, a 5% m2 contraction should be a recession. His view is fiscal doesn’t matter but the past year and a half are proving that fiscal seems to matter - spending at ww2 levels. So ya I’m leaning more towards Michael Howell and Joseph wangs views that money supply needs to account for fiscal.
Texas requires a balanced budget. We have a surplus “rainy day” fund. It should be returned to taxpayers but compared to other states and US government we are in great shape. Bush cut income tax while increasing spending on a disastrous “preemptive” foreign war, and Medicare Part D, good for me but bad for younger citizens.
Don't banks control the money supply through lending and isn't that largely a function of interest rates?
The money that went from David Lins checking account to the Treasury is inflationary, because the government is spending that money, but David would have saved that money. So private saving became government spending. Of course that is inflationary, by definition. So according to the professor, if we all sent our savings to government, and government spent it, that would not cause inflation. I think the professor needs to rethink his weird logic.
He’s saying it’s existing money so no new money is created. Since really only commercial banks and fed can create money (credit). Hanke has an example of 2008 post GFC where there was a ton of spending but it was borrowed from existing dollars (aka not monetized) so that’s why we did not have inflation in early 2010s - per his view. Contrast that with Covid where all the debt was monetized by fed and commercial banks and we had inflation. Btw hanke is missing commercial banks from his example here. Commercial banks love that Yellen is issuing tbills instead of securities right now since they borrow short and lend long. If commercial banks buy tbills that can lead to monetary inflation. Which according to Michael Howell is what is happening now.
@@Hueyck That reasoning doesn't sound logical to me. Dont you think that if everybody started to save their money right now and spent as little as possible, that would lead to deflation? If nobody spends money, prices must go down in order to sell the stuff out there. So even if no new money was created, people could still affect inflation by their spending behavior. And by definition, the same would be true in the opposite direction. If everybody took out every last penny from their savings and spent it right now, that would lead to price inflation, despite the fact that no new money was created. An equivalent outcome would happen if you send your savings to the treasury, and let the goverment spend your money.
PROF HANKE IS THE GREATEST DAVID LIN GUEST OF ALL TIME!!❤❤❤❤
QE increases money supply and rates go down
The "Prof" is awesome!!!!
I don’t understand why it’s the CHANGE in the money supply and not the QUANTITY of money that he is primarily concerned with. I get it that if there’s a superabundance of money injected into the economy, it’ll cause inflation. I don’t understand why that then becomes an instantaneous reset level from which supply must be added to.
This incursion is a theater, military games. Please understand the government standing army can't be used if war is not declared, same army can't be used on inner territory of the country, US have national guards for that and Russia have interior military. This situation involved bunch of paramilitary, military contractors, inmates who agreed to military contract from both sides. NATO also split in two and private NATO 2.0 is in there
My confusion is as follows: Hanke says the debt is not inflationary if the buyer is other than the fed, so no change to money supply. But when asked what is the solution to the debt, it’s three options, increase taxes (not on horizon), reduce spending (also not on horizon) or inflation. So there is a disconnect, or a missing link, in these two explanations. What is it?
He’s saying it’s borrowed out of existing dollars so no inflation. But if commercial banks or fed buys it’s inflationary. I think what he’s saying is that if they stop monetizing debt then that means they have to reduce spending (option 2). Option 3 inflation means they continue to monetize debt. Of course other money theories have different views.
@@Hueyck yes but we stopped monetizing the debt, yet we keep spending more and more.
Perhaps he’s implying private buyers will stop buying our debt (this being the “missing link”). If so, he should say that out loud.
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In-video commercial just 5 minutes in?
TY HANKE THE MAN & a gentleman & a scholar .... and btw a true Professor of life & the big economic picture & geopolitics .... my hero!!
Wasn't he the Christmas poo?
🎄💩
Almost I can think of is South Park.
WHAT IS THE NEED FOR FED TO RIG ELECTION, WE HAVE ISRAELI LOBBY, MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, AND ALL OTHER LOBBIES FOR THAT; WELL, FED THINKS IT IS ITS DUTY TO MANIPULATE INTEREST RATES SO THAT IT CAN SAVE AS MANY BUSINESSES AS IT CAN... IF MANIPULATING INTEREST ON LONG DATED TREASURIES LOWER TO HELP HOUSING FINANCE, IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB
Playing right into Putin's game.
Hanke explains complex economic issues very well. He also does not pretend to be a know-it-all.
can someone explain why bond yields going down makes their value go up? i am so lost
They're talking existing vs new. So higher yield existing bond be worth more that new bond with lower yield. ✌🏼
Bonds and bond yields are inversely correlated
A few things they neglect to mention. First, the Ukrainians pulled their best troops from a rapidly deteriorating defensive line in the Donbass for this attack. The Russians did NOT pull a significant number from their offensive lines. This will enable the Russians to take much more territory in the next few months. Also, the objective of the attack seems to have been Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. A few groups of the advance forces of Ukraine made it to within 50 km. They will get no farther. As Professor Hanke says, this will end poorly for the Ukrainian forces. All part of the Zelenskyy circus show. Circus shows never win wars.
RuZZo shillbot
@@chuckding5590 Your tactic of name calling without providing any argument shines a light on and identifies YOU, a troll.
Hanke is in the woods today not the weeds
The last invasion into Russia during the end of W.W.II ended with zero of the invaders living to tell about it. It started the same way with the invading army entering through a NAZi friendly Ukraine. There will be no serenders or prisoners. It was a death sentence.
The Soviets lost more soldiers than anybody else in WW2 …almost 30 million. Just a fact 🤷
Learn some proper history. A very small fraction of Ukrainians were friendly with NAZIS, only because they believed that Germans were better than Soviets. Yes, some of them committed war crimes.
To say that Ukraine as a whole was “Nazi friendly “ is like stating that all Hollywood was communist in 1950s etc.
You are smart 🤓!
@@FactsMatter999 : Yes, Russia is much better prepared today.
@@user-rl5wm1cm1k No they are not. Here is the ratio of cas ualties by both sides. Compare the ratio :
Russia : 120 thousand
Ukraine: 70 thousand
Russia is losing an average of 1000 soldiers a day.
That is awful sorry
Maybe less a "hail Mary" than a "Battle of the Bulge."
Just so they can make some tic toc videos
David , you need to push back looks to me that M2 is going up
Amazes me how an Economics Professor, has it so spot on with the Geopolitics, Yet the so-called experts don't have any idea. Keep up the great work on informing the masses.
I came here to say the same thing but you’ve done it for me 😅
I think the main issue is that Hanke is able to be reasoned, logical & pragmatic whereas the “experts” May indeed understand reality yet they are unable to convey this due to the propaganda machine.
Mr. Hanky is a useful idiot about geopolitics
Thanks Boris!
David Lin floats my boat.
Steve Hanke makes it hover.
Another Right Way Conspiracist might as well be a Russian Agent
Russia's a good place.
39:20
Deficits and debt sold to non-banks does not reduce the money supply as Hanke says..
Yes, it pulls money from non bank deposit liabilities,. temporarily,.. but then what does the government do with that cash it received?
It spends it,. and it does wind up in the checking accounts of the general economy.
The only way the money supply can shrink is if the government pays off some of its debt. Or it reduces deficits below or to a percent no more than the real growth in the economy as Hanke mentioned earlier.
I do agree that when the primary dealers buy debt from the treasury and then the Fed buys it from the primary dealers in exchange for Fed deposit reserves,.. that that does not necessarily cause inflation because,.
1. those reserves cannot leave the banking system, they're not accessible to the general public and economy,.. unless the bank uses those reserves to generate a loan.
Those loans have an obligation to be paid back and therefore ebb and flow with economic activity.
And much of why Japan doesn't have price inflation within the country,.. (and why US inflation was relatively low between 2009 and 2019).. although on the other hand it's destroying the yen relative to other currencies.
But Japan also has a trade surplus.,.. It brings in reserves from other countries,.. . where the US has a trade deficit sending dollars out to the world market where they are placed in reserves in foreign banks..
Which are used as a medium of exchange for transactions in the eurodollar market and/or to invest in US treasuries.
When the Fed reduces rates,...the cost of US imports will go up as demand for US dollars contracts.
Back to inflation,...
2. Just because there are Fed reserve deposits available to the primary dealer banks,.. doesn't mean the money will get loaned out to increase the money supply.
This is kind of like the saying that came out of the GFC,... the government can try to stimulate, but at some point it's like "pushing on a string" if no one wants or can afford or has the qualifications to borrow.
If inflation is not considered a function of US debt, because it's not included in money supply due to double counting or something (I'd have to think through that),.. then US debt and it's growth is a great proxy for inflation,.. or at least the portion of the debt not on the Fed's balance sheet.
Holy shit, Hanke's in on the bond game
Well David, good to see you are not growing up at all. Maybe you should start a comedy show, but I'm afraid some of your jokes already exist...you should work on your creativity.
Sounds like Hankey’s for Kamala
if this Henke understands economics as he understands war in Ukraine he doesnt know shit
that's right. Just because he is a professor doesn't mean he is right.
You're delusional if you believe MSM about the conflict in Ukraine.
David when you are talking with Hankie, don't you feel you are in school and not doing David lin show. You are the best in the business now
Hanke is great, LIn is good but what the heck are they doing talking about the war so much? Can we talk economics?
Why is Hanke great? Has following his advice made anyone money?
Prof. Hanky, if 10yr yield should go down because M2 is down, why bond sale for 10 yr and 30 yr was so bad. Can you please explain?
America is a failing nation. Why would anyone want its long term debt?
You guys have a phenomenal relationship and I see mutual respect thank you both 🙏
Russia occupies eight time zones. You Crane doesn’t have the manpower.
...and Washington doesn't have the brains. I think it is 11, actually.
3,2,1... Baked in the Cake
Trump who is considered a front runner for president has stated two things to RU and UA leaders. To the UA leaders, once Trump is in, if they do not sit down for peace negotiations with RU, the US will stop sending any and all military equipment and weapons; to the RU leadership, Trump said once he's in, RU need to sit for peace negotiations or else the US will reinvigorate support for UA by sending them many weapons. After the recent incursion onto 'Old Russia' territory, Putin has stated that he will no longer consider peace negotiations with UA and especially not their current leader.
I would have loved to have had Hanke as an Econ professor.
Great presentation by Professor Hanke.
Great talk as usual David. Does it not surprise you, and anyone else, that Russia could possibly be caught by surprise? I find it incredible and not possible
US supporting the Ukraine war both scares me and makes me ashamed.
Cokd war veteran. I served in the former West Germany, 1982-84. Pirmesens, Massweiler, and Neureut Kaserne outside Karlsruhe.
RuZZo shillbot
Old video
🥇GATHER GOLD🥇
How Do You Know Whether It's The Fed Buying The U.S. Debt or other Parties?
Russia didn't have a chance against Ukraine. It is putting Putin under severe pressure from inside out. And there are 2 types of russian soldiers, hired and conscription. What to do with them because losses of hired soldiers doesn't cause a reaction in russian people. Conscription do. Momentum is to Ukraine. Hanke always has an opnion, but in my opnion he doesn't have a clue of what is really going on.
The russian bloggers are panicing because of the strength of the attack and the are pro Kremlin
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Someone couldn't be more wrong than you
@@user-xg6yc8ho3w you are?
@@patrickpellerin5144 thank you for appreciating my brilliant comment❤️
Saw the news today?
Ukraine is toast
this is pretty much a free econ class by Mr. Hanke