This is what we all need to hear The good bad and ugly You have me intrigued Now I need a video on what to do regarding those 4 ways or how best to maneuver through them Thank you
Great Video, especially the first point. I tried +EV betting for a while and it was profitable. However, I noticed that the odds for about half of my bets were worse than the CLV. So that tells me that half the time, NONE of the Sportsbooks knew where the line would end up. All +EV betting is that you are betting at better odds than the other books. It doesn't really guarantee that you are getting odds than the actual probability (which is essentially what the CLV is). I gave up on +EV betting after that
An unusually honest critique, itemizing the principal ways things can go wrong. Among the ones you missed: unscrupulous books that don't want you to withdraw money, special offers that obligate you to bet a sum of money, and then limit you so severely you can never get your money back, obscure rules in the terms and conditions that deem you to be an advantaged player, and of course, the losses that happen due to dumb human error, like betting the likelier side to be limited in an arbitrage second.
Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant!!! You took the words right out of my mouth!!! I have been a very successful arber for the last 5 1/2 years, but its become real competitive now. Just like you, I hear all the talk about how wonderful +EV is, but I had the same reactions as you did. So refreshing to hear you explain it in such a clear and concise way. Keep doing what you're doing!!
FINALLY! I've been thinking this ever since I found out about +EV betting. Tried the 7 day free trial and won a little bit, but couldn't wrap my head around taking a bad bet even though the math is right. If a bad team is going to lose then no amount of money you bet on them to win is going to add up. Also it takes up alot of time betting because odds change so fast that when a new +EV bet comes up you have to drop everything and log on to make that bet before its corrected by the sportsbook. Switched up to researching matchups better and finding where big money is coming in to find right spread prices.
If you knew what teams were going to win and what teams were going to lose with certainty, you could infinitely print money. Odds are extremely accurate on modern sportsbooks. There is a reason 99% of people, including people who know everything about sports, lose.
Really glad you’re unpacking the nuance of EV betting for people. I’ve learned so much from doing it and while I love +EV Betting, like you pointed out, it’s not as simple as just take everything for everyone bc the math supports it. Gained a follower here
One thing that wasnt mentioned is the time factor. If you find a good +EV bet, but the game is still 4 days out, then it may not be a good bet. The line could move a lot in 4 days and you may see that by game time, your great +EV bet may look like trash. Better to look for outliers on the same day as the game, or even a couple hours.
Ive been doing live arbitrage/middle betting but those onrs are like 15-30seconds if youre lucky, id imagine its harder to tell people who are arbitrage/plus ev when the games are going on
agree with you, it requires a lot of focus and ability to stay calm, to lose x days in a row and never feel the temptation to chase losses, it is not a given for most people, unfortunately.
i saw tweets where they claim that $100dlls can be turned into around $5000 in 6 six month with Arbitrage and compounding the winnings. But, if we start arbitrage with just $100, do we refund the losing book with our own money or do we withdraw from the winning book to fund the losing one? But also if we constantly withdraw from the winning book, isn't a red flag for the books to limit you fast? Am i missing something or is it really possible to turn $100 into $5,000 with arbitrage? Thank you, nice video!!
I’m tempted to do a follow up video answering all these question. Short answer - yes it’s possible. Longer answer - it takes practice, a “software” of some kind (manual combing of books for arbs is next to impossible now - although not entirely dead.), books with the best arb opportunities are the first to limit and limit hard (making the arbs worth less than $5 in most cases) and while there are many theories, I believe that withdraws encourage books to limit but only have anecdotal evidence to support.
@@greenmeansgosports I appreciate your response. It will be really cool that video where you answer people's questions. Just today I found your channel, cool stuff!
This is a great video with exceptional content backed by critical thinking skills - very underrated I don't ev bet or pay for any picks or programs - watch utube cappers i agree with their capping styles & I use my own Schedule b2b , 4th game in 6 days , etc go against teams looking ahead or coming off a huge game ( I call it a team that has a super bowl hangover) As far as props I don't get into the last 5 games unless it's a no name plyr IMHO those stats are cooked into prop # - I like taking players back in their hometown , or playing against his former team
For what its worth, Oddsjam does not recommend you bet on odds worse than +200 except if you have a free bet, so the Heisman example would not be applicable for them. Humans can't make enough bets to overcome very long odds in the long run.
I was actually not aware of that, thanks for letting me know. I do know A LOT of people selling discord plays that’ll claim bets well over +200 are EV.
@@greenmeansgosports They mathematically can be still EV, but they are not recommended bets. I see bets on the site that are 50% EV (but are filtered away if you pick recommended filters), but may have odds of +1800, for instance. You would have to make an inhuman amount of similar bets to make a profit, that is why the bets are not recommended.
Great video -- Ive been betting sports for 30+ years- EV is another approach in an endless line of approaches. I do believe there is validity to it now but that opening will be closing soon. This was all created by the US entering the legal sports book industry. Usually when people are selling something means that "edge" is disappearing. I believe in a few years this approach will be obsolete. The Books already have found a quick solution, limiting bets -- soon reaction times will be down to nothing -- also these large gaps will not carry the easy identifiable "mistake." In the 1980s ESPN had a contest for picking winners in the NFL - I wrote down everyone's picks and quickly noticed heavily picked teams lost and soon after that the consensus became the new approach -- while still used now it is no way as effective.
Consensus is the foundation of EV. You either use sharp books where it's the consensus of pros. Or the consensus of all the sportsbooks models and one book's model is off or slow. This is no different from what you did in the 80s and the edge is still present 5 decades later.
good, honest & sincere vid...I tried an EV tool for a week for $10 ($50 for month) I didn't do what's suggested because I agree w/ u - not blindly betting just because its an EV ...I chose the ones I liked & played them with success.. I tried it & it was useful but don't think I'll be using it again...I'm doing fine w out it - just using simple & cost effective tools like Outlier
I don't think you could've hit the nail on the head any more. +EV is a very good way to bet, but not without a lot of pitfalls that the industry leaders selling products won't tell you.
I felt the sane way for a while until I looked at betting differently. There is confusion when it comes to minus money/plus money as it relates to probability. The reality is, anything can happen and just because it’s -250 doesn’t mean it’s more likely to happen.. I look at everything equally…
A few things to hit on here. OddsJam is not a reliable source for EV plays. OddsJam is best used as an odds screen and strictly that. There are nuisances when determining sharps, but consistently hitting market outliers is the best approach. No one book is truly the sharp over another. Your example on variance is solid, but anyone with a day to day approach should not do EV betting. Each example you provided is based on “what if everything is bad,” and believe it or not, many of these points are routinely discussed and managed in the community. The premise of this video is good and I do appreciate it, but I feel like this does not paint the full picture of EV betting. Also, what method of betting would you recommend?
And no, I do not have a discord and have no monetary reason to dispute this. I know the good EV betting has done for me and those around me, and taking a glass half empty approach to it led to a somewhat inaccurate representation.
No I hear you totally! You’re right. This video was meant to cover the downsides of it as a practice because I rarely see anyone talk about negatives. (Besides variance) I agree with you about outliers likely being the best way to trust is something is +EV (but consistently hitting outliers = limits in my experience) I think people who understand the risk, can practice strict bankroll management, and be quick on their feet/phones CAN make money +EV betting - still often an emotional toll when doing everything right. I personally use OJ to arb as I like sure profit. Those are obviously hard to come by and require you to act fast. My first advice to every new bettor is get every book and play every promo. Convert free bets, and track everything. That’s the safest way to do this. Appreciate your comment.
Just curious as to why you said OddsJam isn't a reliable source for EV plays? I'm fairly new to EV betting and joined oddsjam in November. I started with 1k bank roll and have made 3k in profit over the last two months solely betting from the oddsjam +EV page.
Hey man new follower here and I have to say you hit the nail right on the fucking head. I was sold EV betting by DGF fantasy and I lost so much money trying to “follow the math.” It just never made sense to me. But I’m learning and my research is getting better. So thank you for the videos and advice!
Thank you so much! Everyone has a different story. I just think there needs to be a voice out there warning people it’s not as automatic as people suggest. I’m actually prepping another video for the coming week that I think you’ll enjoy. Stay tuned!
The variance example is on the extreme side, he won less than 30% and still made profit. He must have been betting really low probability long shots, which nobody should do. He had an edge yes but also an xWin rate below 30% I'm guessing.
So is ev actually profitable long term or is just come back to all losing, the thing about ev so far is I can still be profitable hitting 40-50%, I guess time will tell
Also, ev betting for math only people would be better to try. Guys handicapping for 30+ years win or lose its difficult to take a pick you really hate. I think it works for a certain type of person with a big bankroll and those that get luck too.
Hey, it’s the truth. 😂 too many losing bets and I have had a tendency to tilt. Best to avoid it entirely, in my case. Although, I’ve gotten better with age
@@greenmeansgosportsit’s hard not to want to get emotional, especially when the red days seem like they don’t stop coming. Good luck with all your bets, and I do want to say I thought the video was amazing. Great work🤙🏽
I ev bet but I also do degenerate gambling, funny enough my d-gen sgp's maybe 3000 and FanDuel this week I've gotten knocked down drag outs like you about betting the clippers to win the championship at you at ev, it's not ev, they're never ever ever ever winning the championship There is no world other than a plane wreck by the Celtics and Joker dying that this happened A lot of these guys don't know anything about sports, and there's a little edge knowing anything about it at all
Time Cost how much is this worth your time thinking over plays , to get a couple extra cents of value , might as well get a part time job . But I love it tho 😂
The only point in the entire video that's valid is being limited. Every other point might as well just say, "Yes EV betting mathematically works, but because people are idiots they drift away from the strategy...?"
“Long term” is easy to answer based on your edge, unit size, and win probability. It’s not time-based, but “number of bets” based. You need an understanding of probability and statistics and you can do the math.
This is what we all need to hear
The good bad and ugly
You have me intrigued
Now I need a video on what to do regarding those 4 ways or how best to maneuver through them
Thank you
Travis hunter won the heisman 😂
Great Video, especially the first point. I tried +EV betting for a while and it was profitable. However, I noticed that the odds for about half of my bets were worse than the CLV. So that tells me that half the time, NONE of the Sportsbooks knew where the line would end up. All +EV betting is that you are betting at better odds than the other books. It doesn't really guarantee that you are getting odds than the actual probability (which is essentially what the CLV is). I gave up on +EV betting after that
An unusually honest critique, itemizing the principal ways things can go wrong. Among the ones you missed: unscrupulous books that don't want you to withdraw money, special offers that obligate you to bet a sum of money, and then limit you so severely you can never get your money back, obscure rules in the terms and conditions that deem you to be an advantaged player, and of course, the losses that happen due to dumb human error, like betting the likelier side to be limited in an arbitrage second.
Want to collab?! Are you me?! Very well put and necessary details I could have included.
Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant!!! You took the words right out of my mouth!!! I have been a very successful arber for the last 5 1/2 years, but its become real competitive now. Just like you, I hear all the talk about how wonderful +EV is, but I had the same reactions as you did. So refreshing to hear you explain it in such a clear and concise way. Keep doing what you're doing!!
You make a lot of good points. Good video
FINALLY! I've been thinking this ever since I found out about +EV betting. Tried the 7 day free trial and won a little bit, but couldn't wrap my head around taking a bad bet even though the math is right. If a bad team is going to lose then no amount of money you bet on them to win is going to add up. Also it takes up alot of time betting because odds change so fast that when a new +EV bet comes up you have to drop everything and log on to make that bet before its corrected by the sportsbook. Switched up to researching matchups better and finding where big money is coming in to find right spread prices.
You have no idea if a bad team is going to win or lose beforehand numnuts that's the point
If you knew what teams were going to win and what teams were going to lose with certainty, you could infinitely print money. Odds are extremely accurate on modern sportsbooks. There is a reason 99% of people, including people who know everything about sports, lose.
This video is a literal blessing 🙏🏽 thank you
Really glad you’re unpacking the nuance of EV betting for people. I’ve learned so much from doing it and while I love +EV Betting, like you pointed out, it’s not as simple as just take everything for everyone bc the math supports it. Gained a follower here
One thing that wasnt mentioned is the time factor. If you find a good +EV bet, but the game is still 4 days out, then it may not be a good bet. The line could move a lot in 4 days and you may see that by game time, your great +EV bet may look like trash. Better to look for outliers on the same day as the game, or even a couple hours.
Ive been doing live arbitrage/middle betting but those onrs are like 15-30seconds if youre lucky, id imagine its harder to tell people who are arbitrage/plus ev when the games are going on
agree with you, it requires a lot of focus and ability to stay calm, to lose x days in a row and never feel the temptation to chase losses, it is not a given for most people, unfortunately.
i saw tweets where they claim that $100dlls can be turned into around $5000 in 6 six month with Arbitrage and compounding the winnings. But, if we start arbitrage with just $100, do we refund the losing book with our own money or do we withdraw from the winning book to fund the losing one? But also if we constantly withdraw from the winning book, isn't a red flag for the books to limit you fast? Am i missing something or is it really possible to turn $100 into $5,000 with arbitrage? Thank you, nice video!!
I’m tempted to do a follow up video answering all these question. Short answer - yes it’s possible. Longer answer - it takes practice, a “software” of some kind (manual combing of books for arbs is next to impossible now - although not entirely dead.), books with the best arb opportunities are the first to limit and limit hard (making the arbs worth less than $5 in most cases) and while there are many theories, I believe that withdraws encourage books to limit but only have anecdotal evidence to support.
@@greenmeansgosports I appreciate your response. It will be really cool that video where you answer people's questions. Just today I found your channel, cool stuff!
This is a great video with exceptional content backed by critical thinking skills - very underrated
I don't ev bet or pay for any picks or programs - watch utube cappers i agree with their capping styles & I use my own
Schedule b2b , 4th game in 6 days , etc go against teams looking ahead or coming off a huge game ( I call it a team that has a super bowl hangover)
As far as props I don't get into the last 5 games unless it's a no name plyr IMHO those stats are cooked into prop # - I like taking players back in their hometown , or playing against his former team
Awesome video!
For what its worth, Oddsjam does not recommend you bet on odds worse than +200 except if you have a free bet, so the Heisman example would not be applicable for them. Humans can't make enough bets to overcome very long odds in the long run.
I was actually not aware of that, thanks for letting me know. I do know A LOT of people selling discord plays that’ll claim bets well over +200 are EV.
@@greenmeansgosports They mathematically can be still EV, but they are not recommended bets. I see bets on the site that are 50% EV (but are filtered away if you pick recommended filters), but may have odds of +1800, for instance. You would have to make an inhuman amount of similar bets to make a profit, that is why the bets are not recommended.
Oddsjam actually has settable filter for odds, so you can set whatever odds limit you like
Great video -- Ive been betting sports for 30+ years- EV is another approach in an endless line of approaches. I do believe there is validity to it now but that opening will be closing soon. This was all created by the US entering the legal sports book industry. Usually when people are selling something means that "edge" is disappearing. I believe in a few years this approach will be obsolete. The Books already have found a quick solution, limiting bets -- soon reaction times will be down to nothing -- also these large gaps will not carry the easy identifiable "mistake." In the 1980s ESPN had a contest for picking winners in the NFL - I wrote down everyone's picks and quickly noticed heavily picked teams lost and soon after that the consensus became the new approach -- while still used now it is no way as effective.
Great insight! And as a many arbitrage bettor, I’ve noticed it’s much harder now than it was in 2021 even. You could find them by hand lol
Consensus is the foundation of EV. You either use sharp books where it's the consensus of pros. Or the consensus of all the sportsbooks models and one book's model is off or slow. This is no different from what you did in the 80s and the edge is still present 5 decades later.
Exactly! These sites saying +300 odds and you should bet $400 like no I’m just not gonna do that! The chances of winning are small
So true all the people that promote +EV are typically offering a service / product etc. to pay them.
good, honest & sincere vid...I tried an EV tool for a week for $10 ($50 for month)
I didn't do what's suggested because I agree w/ u - not blindly betting just because its an EV ...I chose the ones I liked & played them with success..
I tried it & it was useful but don't think I'll be using it again...I'm doing fine w out it - just using simple & cost effective tools like Outlier
Yup! Lots of resources available. Tracking and sticking to some disciplined system is never a bad route.
It is said that the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent
Seahawks mmaann.. You in Colorado? Nearest legal state
Well Travis Hunter won the Heisman. I get it though!
i thought this was funny but it was about last years season lol
Not all heroes wear capes.
I fell into the trap of thinking they’d never give the Heisman to Sanders or Hunter… should have just followed the math, I guess.
I don't think you could've hit the nail on the head any more. +EV is a very good way to bet, but not without a lot of pitfalls that the industry leaders selling products won't tell you.
This video is fantastic
I felt the sane way for a while until I looked at betting differently. There is confusion when it comes to minus money/plus money as it relates to probability. The reality is, anything can happen and just because it’s -250 doesn’t mean it’s more likely to happen.. I look at everything equally…
A few things to hit on here. OddsJam is not a reliable source for EV plays. OddsJam is best used as an odds screen and strictly that. There are nuisances when determining sharps, but consistently hitting market outliers is the best approach. No one book is truly the sharp over another. Your example on variance is solid, but anyone with a day to day approach should not do EV betting. Each example you provided is based on “what if everything is bad,” and believe it or not, many of these points are routinely discussed and managed in the community. The premise of this video is good and I do appreciate it, but I feel like this does not paint the full picture of EV betting. Also, what method of betting would you recommend?
And no, I do not have a discord and have no monetary reason to dispute this. I know the good EV betting has done for me and those around me, and taking a glass half empty approach to it led to a somewhat inaccurate representation.
No I hear you totally! You’re right. This video was meant to cover the downsides of it as a practice because I rarely see anyone talk about negatives. (Besides variance) I agree with you about outliers likely being the best way to trust is something is +EV (but consistently hitting outliers = limits in my experience)
I think people who understand the risk, can practice strict bankroll management, and be quick on their feet/phones CAN make money +EV betting - still often an emotional toll when doing everything right.
I personally use OJ to arb as I like sure profit. Those are obviously hard to come by and require you to act fast. My first advice to every new bettor is get every book and play every promo. Convert free bets, and track everything. That’s the safest way to do this.
Appreciate your comment.
Just curious as to why you said OddsJam isn't a reliable source for EV plays? I'm fairly new to EV betting and joined oddsjam in November. I started with 1k bank roll and have made 3k in profit over the last two months solely betting from the oddsjam +EV page.
@@nickhartmann8836
what's your bet volume? are u betting several hundred a day or a couple of thousand?
@@nickhartmann8836 any screenshots of this? debating on an all ev strategy
Great vid, subbed my guy
I appreciate that man, thank you! Let me know if you’d like me to cover any other topics or have questions
lmao that Travis hunter thing
Hey man new follower here and I have to say you hit the nail right on the fucking head. I was sold EV betting by DGF fantasy and I lost so much money trying to “follow the math.” It just never made sense to me. But I’m learning and my research is getting better. So thank you for the videos and advice!
Thank you so much! Everyone has a different story. I just think there needs to be a voice out there warning people it’s not as automatic as people suggest. I’m actually prepping another video for the coming week that I think you’ll enjoy. Stay tuned!
All what you saying is true bro
The variance example is on the extreme side, he won less than 30% and still made profit. He must have been betting really low probability long shots, which nobody should do. He had an edge yes but also an xWin rate below 30% I'm guessing.
So is ev actually profitable long term or is just come back to all losing, the thing about ev so far is I can still be profitable hitting 40-50%, I guess time will tell
You can be profitable with a 20-30% win rate it’s not about W/L
Also, ev betting for math only people would be better to try. Guys handicapping for 30+ years win or lose its difficult to take a pick you really hate. I think it works for a certain type of person with a big bankroll and those that get luck too.
How do I pay for your picks? lol JK I love the content appreciate the free break down on this. Go Hawks!
Sometimes it’s +EV to just fade everyone’s +EV bets 😭
“I don’t have the mental capacity to lose all those days in a row” 🤣🤣 well, atleast you admit it! +EV is for the brave
Hey, it’s the truth. 😂 too many losing bets and I have had a tendency to tilt. Best to avoid it entirely, in my case. Although, I’ve gotten better with age
@@greenmeansgosportsit’s hard not to want to get emotional, especially when the red days seem like they don’t stop coming.
Good luck with all your bets, and I do want to say I thought the video was amazing. Great work🤙🏽
I ev bet but I also do degenerate gambling, funny enough my d-gen sgp's maybe 3000 and FanDuel this week
I've gotten knocked down drag outs like you about betting the clippers to win the championship at you at ev, it's not ev, they're never ever ever ever winning the championship
There is no world other than a plane wreck by the Celtics and Joker dying that this happened
A lot of these guys don't know anything about sports, and there's a little edge knowing anything about it at all
Time Cost how much is this worth your time thinking over plays , to get a couple extra cents of value , might as well get a part time job . But I love it tho 😂
I believe sports betting lies in-between math and sports intelligence
The only point in the entire video that's valid is being limited. Every other point might as well just say, "Yes EV betting mathematically works, but because people are idiots they drift away from the strategy...?"
“Long term” is easy to answer based on your edge, unit size, and win probability. It’s not time-based, but “number of bets” based.
You need an understanding of probability and statistics and you can do the math.
That’s fair and accurate. I just know a lot of EV bettors blindly bet any edge they can find and even they have an up and down ride.
Assuming all your bets are the same "quality", it's better to have many bets for smaller amounts than fewer bets at larger amounts
EV bets work if you make 100 bets a day
They certainly can, I just can’t stomach the losing days 🤷
Been doing 2 months. 75-110 wagers a day. Started off good but since December 2 a disaster 😢
Ev betting sucks they lose a lot I mean alooooooottttt lmaooo