Your way of selection discards barrier draw- which is very important in a 24 horse race like MelbourneCup. For this reason, I give no hope for Buckaroo from car park 23 gate
Totally agree that barriers are important especially in shorter races. In a 24 horse race an outside barrier can also mean a horse gets caught wide. Generally in longer races though barriers are not as important. To back this up here are the winners from inside , middle and outside barriers. Barriers 1-8: 18 wins Barriers 9-16: 25 wins Barriers 17+: 23 wins. This shows in large fields being in an inside barrier is more of a disadvantage in this particular race. Likely because they get covered up and can’t get out when they need to sprint. A wider barrier allows the jockey a bit more clear room to sit in a spot that allows a finishing run without too much traffic. That’s my thoughts but if it was a 1200m race with a turn I would be avoiding horses in wide barriers.
Yep it did rate tip using one of my models but this is why I use multiple models. The TAB and R+S and my first rating all rated it too low to win. The price also suggests the public believes it will lose. So given all that info I have rated it a poor chance of winning. It may surprise me and win but I’ll be laying it so if it does win I will lose money.
While I’m not 80, one thing I HAVE learned in this industry is that it’s usually the blokes pumping themselves up and putting others down that are the biggest losers. Google ‘Paul Smith Betfair’ it might help you understand who you’re talking about.
I do this for a profit not for fun . I realise that isn’t what everyone is trying to achieve on this race but there are some who do want to take a more professional approach to it. Always interested to hear others point of view and welcome any insights you can provide.
Love your channel...
🙏👏👏👏
BTW I'll be backing 14(Zardozi) to win .
Good luck
Thanks for your time and effort,, appreciate your tips 🙏 watching from wewak East sepik province of Papua New Guinea 🇵🇬🙏
Thanks for watching all the way from Papua New Guinea! Glad you found the video helpful. I hope you enjoy the race and back a winner.
❤ Buckaroo ❤ thanks for your time
land legend for me good luck everyone
Your way of selection discards barrier draw- which is very important in a 24 horse race like MelbourneCup. For this reason, I give no hope for Buckaroo from car park 23 gate
Totally agree that barriers are important especially in shorter races. In a 24 horse race an outside barrier can also mean a horse gets caught wide. Generally in longer races though barriers are not as important.
To back this up here are the winners from inside , middle and outside barriers.
Barriers 1-8: 18 wins
Barriers 9-16: 25 wins
Barriers 17+: 23 wins.
This shows in large fields being in an inside barrier is more of a disadvantage in this particular race. Likely because they get covered up and can’t get out when they need to sprint. A wider barrier allows the jockey a bit more clear room to sit in a spot that allows a finishing run without too much traffic.
That’s my thoughts but if it was a 1200m race with a turn I would be avoiding horses in wide barriers.
Barrier 21 which has won five Melbourne Cups, most recently Vow And Declare in 2019.
Barriers?
So you rate Athabascan top in one of your ratings methodologies yet classify it as poor simply because of the price? ... and then you lay it?
Yep it did rate tip using one of my models but this is why I use multiple models. The TAB and R+S and my first rating all rated it too low to win. The price also suggests the public believes it will lose. So given all that info I have rated it a poor chance of winning. It may surprise me and win but I’ll be laying it so if it does win I will lose money.
Clears all doubts # 10 withdrawn
Zardozi ew love the prep
#10 withdrawn
As an 80 yr old . Raced 300 horses in my time . How does this child thinks he can pick a field ????😮
Well Grand Master, what's your selection?
While I’m not 80, one thing I HAVE learned in this industry is that it’s usually the blokes pumping themselves up and putting others down that are the biggest losers.
Google ‘Paul Smith Betfair’ it might help you understand who you’re talking about.
@@switch30313😂
I do this for a profit not for fun . I realise that isn’t what everyone is trying to achieve on this race but there are some who do want to take a more professional approach to it. Always interested to hear others point of view and welcome any insights you can provide.
How can an 80 year old lack common sense
Okita Soushi, not Otaki!!
Yep I typed it in wrong. Sorry about that.
All good, I appreciate all your work, great video.