My old company (my brother still works there) builds all sorts of machines for glass production and weren't allowed to ship to a Russian customer. A couple of months later they shipped it to Kazakhstan where they opened some sort of “new” business or sub-company, and I guess it's pretty obvious what might have happened after that. Kind of a joke how easily these sanctions are evaded.
I work at a freight forwarding company in customs clearance and also see that companies who shipped to Russia prior to the invasion now suddenly are shipping their goods to Kasachstan or Middle East states …
Not just them. India as well. You know, that big country that the US wants as an ally against China. India is the world's FIFTH largest economy, twice the size of Russia's. It's economy is now already larger than every country in Europe except Germany, and growing faster than all other major economy except China. India is expected to overtake the US in 2050 for 2nd place!
@@danielch6662 India is fastest growing economy in g20. 2050 has nothing to do with present. Now it's 5th in GDP(nominal) & 3rd in GDP(PPP) US wants themselves as strategic partner for South China sea dispute. Because India doesn't recognise 9 dash line.
@@danielch6662 EU and USA getting Russian oil and gas via Indian companies.. don't forget. USA and EU sanctions are double standards while implementing.. they know how tough to implement those sanctions.. EU still getting Russian crude oil from land based instead of seaborn crude.. those are not in sanctions list.. why nkt to cut day 1 from Russia energy in all areas. Why EU nations proposed timeline to find other alternatives from Middle East where India and China are traditionally oil buyers from Middle East. Then price up they can't afford the raise of crude to follow modren colonialism sanctions
Given the surroundings, I'm not sure if Armenia or Kazakhstan and whatnot have any option really. When there's a lot of economic integration, suddenly having to cut those relations with your big trade partner may prove disastrous and unpopular
I mean, if Kazakhstan didn’t have an option, it’s president wouldn’t have called the DNR and LNR illegitimate states to Putin directly. Kazakhstan’s president has numerously stated that Kazakhstan will take the UNs side and will not a back door for avoiding sanctions, because secondary sanctions would be detrimental
Except that those components have previously been sourced from the West directly. So this is not like the West is demanding those nations to cut away trade that they've previous had. Only to not increase trade on sanctioned goods. Basically: "Sell them what you've sold before."
As a person living in Kazakhstan, I don't think we can join the sanctions. And it's not about any support Russian action, it's just a shot in the knee. Since the introduction of even primary sanctions against Russia, the standard of living of the common population has dropt significantly, because there was a lot of trade with Russia. Especially after turning off SWIFT. Trying to force Kazakhstan to impose sanctions against Russia is like trying to force the UK or Canada to impose sanctions against the USA.
You're probably right. Not to mention that making Russia mad like that might cause Putin to find an excuse to invade your country to "protect Russian speakers" or some other BS reason.
@@snapdragon6601 it's also a point. We share a big, like really big, unprotected by any natural defence, border, and small population around ~20m people. And we can rely on China, but it is also not the best country to rely on. So, our government is trying to build partnerships with everyone without turning into someone's puppet state. And I can appreciate this political vector.
Я кстати думал на счёт этого, возможно ли поставить блок на количество вывозимой техники в другие страны? Так как цены на все выросли, думаете такое регулирование государством поможет? Давление от РФ хоть и будет большим, но что оно может сделать?
@@甘いパイ-c3w if you're Japanese, doing that may cause your companies relying on exports to collapse. Japan's economy is already tottering as it is. People like to talk about Japan's _lost decade_ but that decade is now 30 years long. And public debt is insane.
I watched a video of a guy exploring a Russian shopping centre to see what brands were still being sold 10 months later and it seems like pretty much everything. PC parts, cameras, laptops, iPhones, clothing brands & even skin care. Everything. Though now with a 10-15% markup. A lot of stores were closed, but others have popped up and you can still get the same items. Manufacturing warranties were the only issue, but the shops still gave guarantees. He detailed how some of the western and western allied brands were getting around sanctions and how the Russian shops and distributors were still procuring items en mass from the brands that aren't evading sanctions. The same documentarian also interviews families & different businesses in different tier cities and villages & industries around Russia and how the sanctions are affecting their lives. It seems that the 2014 sanctions had primed them to the tighter ones that came post-2022. One sort of surprising thing was that mass mobilisation has affected business more than sanctions and has caused a lot more pain for the communities too. That's something I personally didn't consider.
@@ettoreatalan8303 Your wrong. Western sanctions are to stop or make it as hard as possible to do business in russia. Especially stop the export of technology into Russia. The shopping center was the example of how Russian and Western companies are getting around sanctions. It's clear you didn't even watch this video too as consumer goods are being repurposed for the war machine. And so the sanctions are to stop those consumer goods too.
@@Eoin-B Dual-use products are imported by Russian companies from third-party countries whose economies are closely intertwined with the Russian economy for historical reasons (USSR). If the West does not want to push these countries entirely back into the Russian sphere of influence, the West will have to act cautiously when it comes to secondary sanctions. After all, Russian diplomacy never misses an opportunity to convince countries of the malice of the West and to present Russia as their savior. Dishing out secondary sanctions the way John Rambo dishes out bullets would play very much into Putin's hands.
@@ettoreatalan8303 Now it sounds like your quoting or replying to somebody else. I'm not pushing for anything. this video was about are central asian countries helping Russia evade sanction. I gave an example of where I had learned that the Russians are easily evading sanctions in most areas. And in fact the main thing that seems to be hurting the Russian economy, is the draft and labour fight because of the draft. (In Russian businesses perspective) as it takes out one a huge segment of the market with typically the most disposable income, young single males. While simultaneously driving up the cost of labour and prices due to shortages even though demand is lower. Then you gave two replies like your not listening.
The video and general beliefs on central Asian countries helping to bypass sanctions have a big flaw. CIS countries used to purchase a lot from Russia pre-war. It was easier for western companies to import to Russia and let companies there manage the smaller more complex countries around Central Asia. I used to sell to Russia 100x what I was selling to Kazakhstan directly (consumer products). I knew about 5% of sales was going to KZ. After the war I have had to shift more distribution directly there so I am selling 4x what I used to in KZ which is still lower than what used to go there via Russia. The analysis needs to include local demand to conclude whether the level of imports is fair or not
That would require more work on the part of the presenters and possibly lead to a more boring video that is not as suitable for their audience. It's so much easier to say washing machines are used for chips.
You shall also account for the russian trades with other countries through New channels, for the possible new suppliers, as well as the deadweight loss due to the sanctions.
Another important country to mention in Russian sanctions busting is Azerbaijan. The EU signed a massive deal with Azerbaijan to buy gas from them and not the Russians when the war got started. But then right after Azerbaijan got the EU gas/oil deal, they signed a deal with Russia to import loads of Russian gas and oil into Baku. Since AZ isn’t subject to any EU-Russia sanctions, they can import as much as they want, and they could easily pump tons of Russian hydrocarbons into the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline that services Europe.
That explains why Russia didn't attack Azerbaijan after attacking Armenia that will supposedly trigger CSTO's Article 4, which both (Russia and Armenia) of them are members of CSTO to begin with
@@thechosenone1533 EU have been mostly mute about recent Nagorno-Karabakh tensions. At least I haven’t seen much reactions on the media. And EU countries buys natural gas from Azerbaijan, so there is pressure points to apply there.
If say, Kazakhstan tries to actually follow Western sanctions on Russia, then Russia suddenly finds some issues with the oil pipeline (CPC) passing through its territory and transporting the most of Kazakh oil to Europe, which is around 70% of the country's export and major revenue stream, basically the job you do for a living, in simple terms. That pipeline's already been suspended multiple times due to some unexpected "failures" and "wartime mines" found at the bottom of the Black Sea near the Novorossiysk port and cost Kazakhstan some lost profits. Also consider the Trade Union that allowed Russian goods enter Kazakh market a while ago and impacted Kazakh domestic manufacturers. Now it resulted in Russian dominance at the local household market. The list can go on and on. In short, Russia has plenty of "tools" for political pressure. Kazakhstan is in a tough spot and has a few options to maneuver around this situation, unless the country's government drastically changes its policies which I hardly believe it will do in the near future
Russia has been working to circumvent sanctions, even using the most illegal methods. Central Asia is unlucky due to their past being Russian colonies and Russia still holds grip there.
@@Joaquin546 This has been debunked multiple times. Ask anyone that knows even a little bit about microchips and they will tell you it doesn't make any sense.
@@ibrahimmekonnen8259 No it hasn't been debunked comrade. The Chinese don't make enough quality microchips to sell to the russians. Meanwhile the Ukrainians found plenty of washing machines among the looted items of the russians that fled.
@@Joaquin546 Oh I beg to differ. Just because you haven't heard of it does not mean it does not exist. Ask yourself this question. Why should Russia use such a complicated way of getting to microchips that they can import from China and even can produce themselves (Russia has a microchip industry since the Soviet Union). And chips that go into phones and washing machines are the least advanced chips. Furthermore, a bunch of washing machines on its own is no evidence for this (can just as likely be for personal gain). Ukraine will do everything it can to bolster support in the west. Even by playing into the western fantasy that their sanctions have cripelled Russia to such an extent that they need to scavange washing machines for parts.
@@ibrahimmekonnen8259 I’m sure you think that but that doesn’t change reality. Plus even if you are right that shows Russians are lowly thugs stealing and looting from what should be their “fellow Russians”. FYI chinas microchip industry is second rate and doesn’t produce the high quality tech microchip like Taiwan comrade.
As a Kazakh citizen I understand the concern, but people in the west have to understand that Kazakhstan and other central Asian countries are in an extremely hard situation manny of us don't support the Russian war but the threat of Russia is a large one and we don't want to be the next Ukraine
It's difficult to play this geopolitical game with Russia especially when Russia has called into question our sovereignty and we're so interdependent on Russia I think if the west want to change that they have to offer a better alternative to Russia and guarantee our security both politically and economicly
Many of us support Ukraine many of the post-soviet states like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan we don't want Russia to be questioning the territorial integrity of post Soviet states but inorder to protect ourselves we have to toe a thin line
Central Asia is weak and this is unfortunate due to their location between three despotic regimes, plus an unreliable Taliban (which I deeply hate for their violent radicalism). Unless Central Asia is allowed to be on its own, a big doubt must be taken.
@@chechenknightslaillaillall2047 And what else? Afghanistan do anything to have international recongise and market Taliban doesn't care long as they gain some recongise and they already make deal with China despite China imprisoned million of muslim in camp
@@tiglishnobody8750 Honestly, the idea of “Islamic solidarity” never exists, even I am Muslim myself. The separation of Sunni and Shia reminds me a bitter lesson about trusting people yelling these words. Erdogan can even sell his country for Russia to block Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids, then who know? The only thing I want from Central Asia is they must free themselves from Russia. We are not lucky, we lost our homeland since 2000. They are luckier, and they should do it.
85% of countries in the world have not imposed sanctions. Russia is a country of huge resources, and everyone needs resources. Europe has only lost the big money market with its sanctions. Here are the European car companies. And what? China alone opened 900 car dealerships in Russia in 2022. Huawei, which, under sanctions, is increasingly selling its equipment in Russia. Russia will sell its cheap resources to China. The cost of manufacturing goods in China will be low. European production of goods will not be profitable. European companies are already fleeing to the US, India, China and other countries. Europe is waiting for unemployment and poverty.
Tho the primary idea is that they have no access to These parts so they cant manifacture their Equipment (still Ironic cuz МЦСТ exist) and lot of russian Banks are starting to use the chinese CIPS System i effect evadeing SWIFT...
True, but it still strengths the grip of Russia on these countries which are just another former territory of the Russian empire/Soviet union, the very thing Putin wants to restore
@@tomlxyz Strengthen yes ,but in favour of Armenia and Khazakstan , their relations with Russia was very one sided until now , finally Russia depends on them for consumer goods ,and this countries don't want to be a part of Russia especially that many of them have a muslim majority
@@drbrown747 I didn't say Armenia it's a Islamic county,I say "many of them" in the previous comment I said asian countries,and Armenia it's the only one christian, Uzbekistan, Khazakstan, Turkmenistan are all the countries mention by TLDR news and are Muslim majority, Armenia it's there too but she is the exception
Sanctioning central Asian countries could be dangerous if this theory is true such an action can draw them closer to Russia and it’s ambitions in the long run.
Precisely. Putin has been preparing for this war for 20ish years. He clearly massively underestimated the corruption within the military and its effectiveness but that doesn't mean tactics like these sanction avoidance have been too.
@@Roggor Russia has a history of starting campaigns badly and then turning it around. Clearly they're not going to capture Kiev, but a deal will be reached where eventually they'll annex parts of Eastern Ukraine.
@@Mitjitsu As much as such an arrangement would catch in the throats of the virtue signalling West, it really is the only outcome that avoids a nuclear conflict. For those who are inevitably going to comment on this, no, this is not the same as the appeasement the allies tried on Hitler in the 1930s. He was greeted with either cheers or complete capitulation up until Poland. Putin has had his nose bloodied at the first charge. He physically cannot be Hitler 2: Zyklon B Boogaloo.
This is true. The FT covered this topic this week. Indeed the export volume chart used in the presentation was from that article. It is worth a read. Essentially there is a taskforce being setup to deal with countries that reside in central Asia but the remit will include Turkey, The UAE and China. Bloomberg also reported last week that the UAE will have a particular focus because there are companies there that arrange shadow fleet shipping for Russian oil and for the transiting components used in Iranian, military drone production.
@@donchu Not sure that UAE is helping Iran with drone components but any company seeking to avoid sanctions has multiple options, international banking makes it easier to hide the identity of a customer.
@@donchu Seeing as the UAE is not kindly disposed towards the regime in Tehran I questioned it helping with drones. Unnamed companies is all a bit vague.
@@KanLuxiang , for months they were pretty much defending sanctions for Russia and how that would be a powerful weapon against Putin. In the end it looks like those sanctions are hurting more the west than Russia.
@@tellmelullabies5552 That is not the takeaway of this video. Sanctions are still hurting Russia more than the West. They just have several avenues to avoid the sanctions, bc sanctions are hard to enforce with 100% efficiency. idr if it was in this video or another one, but they talked about how Russia was lacking certain spare parts for military equipment and were importing Chinese built ones that had a higher failure rate on the battlefield. They also mention how they are using chips from Western appliances. These chips may work, but are not going to be as effective as chips specifically designed for military use. It's like slapping on duct tape & claiming that it's as good as new.
@@KanLuxiang yes that may all be true but is it more significant than the impact on energy prices specially for Germany? The increase is so high that big corporations are talking about moving out of Germany because as we all know, it’s all about maximizing profits.
@@tellmelullabies5552 The German gov could initiate policies to keep more companies in the country. As an environmentalist, I hope this has been a big wake up call for Germany to restart their nuclear plants. The German Greens are just as complicit as Merkel in empowering Putin, imo.
The crucial thing is that a level of sanction busting is always expected and taken into account, this was also the case with Russia. The even more crucial thing is that evading sanctions still puts a burden on the sanctioned economy because even if it's not impossible to get certain products, it becomes harder and more expensive. Therefore they still do their job. This was never a case of suddenly collapsing the russian economy, this was about grinding it down and putting pressure on Russia, particularly in the military procurement aspect, which, combined with the ongoing and skyrocketing war expenditures IS reducing the russian economy significantly. That's why sanctions were and still are progressively being applied. This year, without the kind of revenue that they used to get from europe buying gas and oil, with the rest of the sanctions going on, with the individuals sanctioned directly that support the regime and with the prospect of facing an even stronger Ukraine on the field, this trend will just continue and become more severe. We on the other side can only persist and then wait and see how much is too much for Russia. In the meantime, they could just lose the war on the battlefield anyway.
The question is what will collapse first. The Russian military, the Putin regime, or all of Russia. One should not hope that Putin will end the Ukraine war on his own without something having collapsed.
Dummy, it was about collapsing the Ruusian economy. But since that didn't happen the West changed the narrative and now they say it was intended as a slow working poison. Doesn't make any sense if you're trying to stop a war. Don't you agree you silly kiddo.
The only central Asian country that needs oil and gas and isn’t near other central Asian countries with oil and gas is probably Kazakhstan, but Kazakhstan and Russia’s relations are deteriorating due to Putin claiming all of former soviet countries as just land that Russia gave them for free and the rest of of the Stans can just get it from nearby countries, (Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan).
Kazakh here, hi. We have our own oil and gas. The reason why Kazakhstan can't just tell Russia to fuck off is because of very close economic relationships. Russia is Kazakhstan's biggest trading partner, and sadly we can't just shut down the door on russians because it will heavily affect our economy as well. The part about Putin's claims is true, I'm from the north part of Kazakhstan, we have lot of pro-putin ethnic russians there and russian propaganda spreads it's fascist shit there as well. So overall the situation isn't very nice.
@@AslanAlmukhambetov Nobody is claiming anything. If you have more brains than Ukraine to realize economical benefits from good relationships with Russia - this is enough.
@@alexsilent5603 Ukraine had a choice and they chose EU over Russia. Unfortunately in Kazakhstan we don't have such choice, but I assure you if only we had at least one EU member state at our borders - we would gladly develop economic relations with them instead of Russia.
@@alexsilent5603 hahahaha good economical benifits with russia like what be my friend or ill shoot you what a nice diplomatic relations with neighboring countries russia have
What on earth do western countries' sanctions have to do with central Asia? It`s in the name! Most countries outside the EU/UK/USA 'block' are very ambivalent concerning the whole Russia Ukraine issue - there was a certain amount of sympathy towards Ukraine at the start but that`s pretty much faded by now!
You say carrots not sticks, but then completely fail to describe any carrots to those countries that depend on Russia for various things (hint: it's not just Central Asia, many Central-Eastern European countries also have a similar problem, e.g. importing nearly 100% of their coal and gas from Russia).
They may have not given examples, but the West could offer alternatives to the Belt & Road Initiative, aka funding critical infrastructure projects, if these countries (slowly) decouple more from Russia. If we make the offer less shady than the Chinese one, then we could be a viable alternative.
@@KanLuxiang There is no amount of infrastructure that will take away the cost of transporting stuff to Central Asia from the West. China on the other hand actually neighbours them and can sell stuff to them while Europe on the other hand is not known for being able to export to poor countries. Their other neighbours are not particular manufacturing powerhouses that they could build any other regional infrastructure other than connecting them to China and China has that taken care of. Russia is a natural trading partner for Central Asia.
@@attheratehandle You know that China is building infrastructure in Africa, despite not neighboring it, right? All the West has to do is supply the capital and technical knowledge. They don't have to directly connect them all the way to Bulgaria.
@@KanLuxiang Africa can actually use that infrastructure and China can actually build it. That gives more benefit than just the loan interest rate. Also China can actually sell stuff to Africa (not to mention transport by sea is cheap, land is not), they are planting seeds for tomorrow and fatten up Africa as a market. None of these factors are present in an interaction of West-Central Asia.
How about STOPPING the sanctions. We've done this for nearly 50 years. And I can't remember a SINGLE country this was either effective on or didn't hurt the people putting out the sanctions in the first place.
Just put a cap on the ammount of high tech products Russias neighbors can import that should easily fix the problem witouth having to do secondary sanctions.
How bold... USA can't control its own southern border, but you say that it's easy to control a border between two countries on the other side of the world.
There are still Western companies trading in Russia! VW(Volkswagen) for one! German companies seams to have a lot of investments in Russia. Maybe thats why the German Government is so reluctant to send heavy military equipment to Ukraine.
Germany has been fucked by Russians during the Nazi days. Now they are just Russian energy dependent. If Russia chooses to eliminate Germany they just gotta switch of fuel.
west cut of gas supply from russia? west nooo but we need it. asia country that has nothing to do with the war.... ohh you didnt criticize russia, you must be support the war.
it would be great to know the volumes going through central Asia ...and those going through Turkey 🤔you know that country that is part of NATO and doing a lot of business with Russia.
I’m sure central banks in the west, be it in the US or EU, are aware of these import outliers that are the central Asian nations. We might be purposefully allowing them to do so, be it for strategic reasons (exports/etc) or out of sheer interest on how long these lifelines can go on for Russia with Putin thinking they’re reliable only to cut them off when it’s most crucial.
Those countries are reliant on getting energy and goods out of Russia. Trying to sever them from russian trade, would hurt them more than Russia. We also can't just limit the product deliveries to pre war levels. Then all western products would just be resold to Russia, because they can pay more than the local population.
It's best if west does follow its jurisdiction, stop bullying smaller countries. Anyway brics is now getting stronger 😂 not military but yeah fuck the west
As an electronics engineer I would say that these sanctions are still effective, just not in the way people expect them to be. Russia is importing washing machines through 3rd party countries to strip for parts, think about how much time and cost that adds to their weapon building process. As an example lets say my company and a russian company are building the same weapons system: I buy the components (chips) I need from any large component distributor, ship them to the assembler who uses an automatic pick and place machine to put the components on the circuit board, put the board in my system, Done. Fast, automated, cheap. The russian company orders washing machines for 1000x its value in chips, plus overhead to reship it to russia, then someone manually tears it apart, and carefully desolders the chips by hand hoping they don't ruin any in the process. They ship those chips to their assembler, who may not be able to use automated machining to place the parts as they aren't packed properly, so some parts are being hand soldered which then increase timeline and costs. Then these boards will be tested, likely to a not insignificant failure rate due to moisture damage or what not. Put the boards in their system, Done. Slow, manual, expensive. Significantly Increasing the cost of production and repair of advanced weapons means russia needs to put far more resources into getting equipment than Ukraine has to. In the end their equipment that is far more expensive, takes longer to get, and likely has a higher failure rate. This is still an effective strategy to slow down russias war machine even if its not 100% effective. Think death by 1000 cuts.
The only thing that could potentially stop Russian supply is a ban to trade (only military and dual-use goods) with countries that trade with Russia but it’s kinda hard and not actually reliable.
thanks to the sanctions, we watch TH-cam in Russia without advertising, it's a little funny how many companies just changed their names, I issued a Chinese card for payment and also spent $ 15 to travel to Belarus for a visa card, now the factories that assembled European cars are now assembling Chinese ones, but I think. WHICH is very good that Russia does not sell Boeings and Airbuses, we will build our own planes
What about imposing a quota on all goods exported to central Asian countries, looking at the historic figures pre-war and agreeing amongst all western countries to have a database so they can collectively sell a set amount of washing machines for example, making it impossible for these countries to sell to Russia, or they will have to sacrifice their domestic market.
This would push those countries towards Russia as the West would take on the mantle of economic aggressors whereas Russia would just be business as usual if not more so.
What kind of super advanced chips are on washing machines that China can't produce them? And the stuff from China has a 40% failure rate but the ones from the west is 2%? Are they buying from _Wish_ ? My washing machine is from LG but it was made in China. There's no 40% failure rate. Or even 2%. WTF are they talking about? 2% is really high!
I'm just spitballing, maybe this might not move them more towards Russia, because people always think for their interests first if they have to sacrifice not being able to buy new things just to sell them to the Russians, because there is not enough for both, they might not be happy and just choose the new Hotpoint over Russia
It’s not Central Asia that helps Russia to circumvent the sanctions, it’s the free market. If there are supply and demand, then they want to meet, and any arbitrary mechanism like sanctions only increases transaction costs, it doesn’t have the power to stop things from happening.
I don’t really understand, why are secondary sanctions off the table. Who cares if we piss of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, moreover couldn’t we just do an export quota so they can’t import more than 2021 levels?
Reputations are being defined, more cooperation among allies, more prudence with others, including secondary sanctions. Stop strengthening adversaries, more internal investments, better public oversight & accountability.
Ironic to see a UK minister interviewed on this subject. The number of sanctioned individuals by the UK is at 10% of those sanctioned by the EU and Londongrad continues to be the offshore bank of Putin's oligarchs. How about some secondary sanctions there?
Sanctions are not a spear, they're a slow spreading fire. Russia also prepared for factions before the war which means they'll take even longer to have their intended effect.
Yeah it soon backfires to u... Check how dollar has been dumped globally. Soon Ur debt will come back to ya... Brace for inflation that u have never seen before 😂
@@devinmes1868 it's over already, and in the first 4 months of 2023, China will grow more than the US would in the whole year. And Asia is not China alone.
Europe is not getting poorer. Most of Europe experience GDP growth. Asia is not one country, Russia is in recession, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in deep crisis, Turkey has wild inflation, China has troubles in many sectors. The overal GDP of Asia might grow, but some countries are in trouble.
I started to realise how biased this channel is. Why don't you mention or ever spoke about Ursula von der Leyen's deal with dictator Aliev on gas import from Azerbaijan which eventually is delivered from Russia. So basically Europe get it's gas from Putin.
While it is true, that the effect of sanctions dwindle, it is not in this timescale. First, you miss parts, deplete your stock/reserve until some way around is found, now likely many factories are looking for a limited alternative. Everyone who cant afford it or cant acquire enough of necessary parts, has to close or fire people. The end product is more expensive in production. And in case of "reverse engineering", it is much more labor intense to get to those parts as well.
There's another reason why secondary sanctions are dangerous. Pulling Russia out of Swift showed that core Western services for globalization purposes can be repurposed for political reasons. This, by itself, was an extremely risky move, especially when Russia and China are looking to make their own variants on Swift. If NATO punishes countries with secondary sanctions, there becomes a direct need to pick a side - and the West may be pushing certain countries out of its sphere of influence when it had the exact opposite goal in mind
That'll be fun. But no. 6:56 that's Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister of State for Indo-Pacific, responsible for that area, and also sanctions. It's a mid-level position. One of 4 junior ministers and 2 parlimentary under-secretaries reporting to the foreign secretary, and the foreign secretary is one of the 4 "great offices of state". Trevelyan was previously a full minister but got demoted in the reshuffle that happened after PM Lettuce expired and was replaced.
I cannot stomach punishing central Asian countries for doing business with Russia, it's almost victim-blaming. What is their alternative? Who else is lining up to invest in their economies? Who is going to protect them from Russia if they make Putin their enemy? They've got to make the best of where they are, and unless western countries are willing to commit to supporting them in breaking away from the Russian sphere, we can't be making demands.
The solution is simple: impose a trade cap on these third party countries, relating it to the total amount of exports in 2021 plus a 10% margin. That's it. Please cite me when applying that strategy.
Central asian companies could simply claim they sold stuff to central asian citizens and that those citizens did what they want with them. "including driving to russia and with the stuff they sold to them ". A russian agent residing in kazakstan could simply buy 40 washing machines as kazak citizen load them on a big truck and travel to russia with them. As long as your not selling them directly to russian companies it dosnt violate sanctions
Like black markets, it's not whether it's happening, it's whether it's significant enough to make a difference on the battlefield. Your observation that Russia is not deploying its airforce in Ukraine is the answer. Sanctions aren't perfect, but they're working well enough at very little expense to the Western Alliance.
i would very much like usa to introduce secondary sanctions.... this might hurt Asia in short term but in long term, we will get out of western hands... and USA will be remembered in the same way other imperialist states are remembered...
In the short term, it would completely destroy several economies. I'm not exaggerating. Do you really want to hand over all of out territory to Putin on a silver platter?
Of course the process to track and adjust sanctions takes time but the 80% consumption rate in Kazakhstan, and other countries, should have raised immediate red flags. I wonder if greed/profit are being taken more seriously than the sanctions.
Why not select one of the offending countries and impose max sanctions on them-really thump them hard-and then turn to the others and ask 'which road do you want to go down?' At the same time it is important to prevent PRC from obtaining the expertise to manufacture decent chips or they will just supply Russia with all they want.
This is what bullies do. Look, are you the good guys or the bad guys here. Stop doing evil s*****. Those shortcuts are tempting in the short run, but you end up screwing yourself in the long run when everybody hates you. How do you think the CCP came to be in power in China. The civil war was Chiang's to lose. And lose it he did. The generalissimo had all the advantages. Think about WHY he lost and how China became communist.
@@danielch6662 I don't agree. Making a demonstration on one would save the others from suffering. They have to acknowledge that by facilitating Russia they have allied themselves with Russia and there are consequences for that. It's a war, not a sports event and war calls for hard measures.
Just more reason to broaden both the amount of goods sanctions, and the countries targeted, aswell as harshly punishing domestic evaders of sanctions with asset confiscation and prison time.
That information in microchips make little sense to me. The chips in those devices are very basic. I could buy much more powerful stuff on ebay in significant quantities.
Creating more sanction on top of an existing sanction that looped holes were found is not going to solve the issue. As with there will always be more of it. Ultimately when countries economically co-dependent on each other's trading and logistics. They must trade, and telling central Asia to suck it and obey will not help. It simply incentivize all parties to be ever more creative in trade practices. Economic wars are fought with Economics, and legal sanction are a legal tool not economic ones.
In places like Krygyzstan Rubles are freely exchanged for local currency (SOM /KGS). The Krygyz local economy is heavily dollarised. I read somewhere that something like 30% of Krygyz GDP is remittance payments from abroad.
De facto "clearing house" countries such as Kirgyzstan, and/or doing "off shoring", shell companies, even using crypto tokens in lax jurisdictions (e.g. Maldives, but even notoriously lax Dubai, etc)
@@skellurip unknown. There was a brief flurry of Russians flying into Bishkek, selling Rubles for USD and going back to Russia. The local government started putting $10k caps on these sorts of transactions. I know a guy there who's basically quit his job and now buys cars in the UAE for Russian clients. They give him Rubles, he converts that to SOM and then that is converted to UAE for the car purchase. The car is then driven to Russia via Kazakhstan. Apparently lots of business like this. When buying the car, the clients usually want service kits and brakes chucked in. Probably half those cars then get sold on in Russia. Expensive way of doing business. But there's apparently alot of this sort of business. You now half of Kyrgyzstan attending the car auctions in Dubai. But yes, settling in USD is easiest there. Even all the remittance services won't allow you to convert to SOM.
You could establish tariffs, something like 10%-50%, against all countries that are known to engage in this type of practice, on goods that can be used for maintaining the war effort. This way you could make it more expensive for Russia, while simultaneously maintaining (or even increasing) revenue for the sanctioning countries, which would indirectly help Ukraine.
Well this way of getting around sanctions of getting imports from neutral countries has been successful. The best examples are the German empire and the Third Reich, both got imports such as food from other countries.
So the incentive is for all other countries to get on the west's side? Carrots might cost some but it also gives some in return in having less enemies to fight
@@jirachi-wishmaker9242 damn bro i did not know every non west country want to get sanctioned just to get out of the financial system made by the west that they are completely depended on and have nothing to replace it. I completely agree with you.
The swift banking system isn't the only way to pay, it's just the most widespread one. And only the forex reserves they had in other countries were frozen but it's not the only reserves they have
In places like Krygyzstan Rubles are freely exchanged for local currency (SOM). Krygyzstan is heavily dollarised. Also, you find branches of Russian banks operating there. The KGS is heavily correlated to RUB because a large part of the Kyrgyz population work in Russia. As a result Krygyzstan often experiences shortages of dollars. When visiting there in April last year there was a strict, cap of $250 per withdrawal as people lost faith in the local currency.
@@donchu That might work for small scale, I doubt they can exchange dollars in much larger scale necessarily for import/export. Sure Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries can transact in rubles but beyond that niche market, a pile of rubles are worthless.
@@lv3609 true. Although, I wouldn't be surprised. The place is literally bandit country, I have never visited anywhere as corrupt in my life. But the export metrics are there, something is happening.
EU evading Russian energy sanctions through India, China & central Asia and Russia evading western technology sanctions through China & central Asia... The whole sanctions thing is like Ron telling Harry about dragon through Hermione in Harry Potter & the goblet of fire 🤣🤣🤣
Sympathy for Armenia in their ongoing border conflict just reached a new low. If they don't care about the rule of international law, and give us the middle finger when it comes to Russian sanctions, then why should we care about their borders? And why not include them in secondary sanctions?
Europe never cared about Armenia's borders, and did little to defend it from attack. So Armenia has little to lose from this. Russia has been keeping the delicate peace between Armenia and Azerbijan since 2020, so Armenia has to align to Russia.
Lol. They have learned from usa. And how they steal resources, make fake wars etc.... Middle East completely destroyed by greedy west. Even with all this loot west does not have any human ethics, lives and values. Everything is superficial😂
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My old company (my brother still works there) builds all sorts of machines for glass production and weren't allowed to ship to a Russian customer. A couple of months later they shipped it to Kazakhstan where they opened some sort of “new” business or sub-company, and I guess it's pretty obvious what might have happened after that. Kind of a joke how easily these sanctions are evaded.
It is true, but they also increase costs and reduce efficiencies
The sanctions would be much more effective if they couldn’t be evaded this easily.
I work at a freight forwarding company in customs clearance and also see that companies who shipped to Russia prior to the invasion now suddenly are shipping their goods to Kasachstan or Middle East states …
Eh glass production won’t change the outcome of the war. The lack of high quality microchips and airplane parts will hurt them though.
@@Joaquin546 the vast majority of goods Russia normally imports from us won't change the outcome of the war. The goal is to cripple Russia's economy.
Is Central Asia helping Russia evade sanctions? TLDR: Yes
Not just them. India as well. You know, that big country that the US wants as an ally against China.
India is the world's FIFTH largest economy, twice the size of Russia's. It's economy is now already larger than every country in Europe except Germany, and growing faster than all other major economy except China. India is expected to overtake the US in 2050 for 2nd place!
@Winter "gave" "pass" Lol.
@Winter yeah EU & US imports *known* Russian oil via Saudi China India to make themselves look saint.
@@danielch6662 India is fastest growing economy in g20. 2050 has nothing to do with present. Now it's 5th in GDP(nominal) & 3rd in GDP(PPP)
US wants themselves as strategic partner for South China sea dispute. Because India doesn't recognise 9 dash line.
@@danielch6662 EU and USA getting Russian oil and gas via Indian companies.. don't forget. USA and EU sanctions are double standards while implementing.. they know how tough to implement those sanctions.. EU still getting Russian crude oil from land based instead of seaborn crude.. those are not in sanctions list.. why nkt to cut day 1 from Russia energy in all areas. Why EU nations proposed timeline to find other alternatives from Middle East where India and China are traditionally oil buyers from Middle East. Then price up they can't afford the raise of crude to follow modren colonialism sanctions
Given the surroundings, I'm not sure if Armenia or Kazakhstan and whatnot have any option really. When there's a lot of economic integration, suddenly having to cut those relations with your big trade partner may prove disastrous and unpopular
well, west has an option not to export there if they're smuggling it to russia...
if they have an option to smuggz, that is
I mean, if Kazakhstan didn’t have an option, it’s president wouldn’t have called the DNR and LNR illegitimate states to Putin directly. Kazakhstan’s president has numerously stated that Kazakhstan will take the UNs side and will not a back door for avoiding sanctions, because secondary sanctions would be detrimental
@@ivok9846 that would worsen already the bad impression of EU and West in that region . Pushing them into Russian sphere of influence
Like brexit 🤣
Except that those components have previously been sourced from the West directly. So this is not like the West is demanding those nations to cut away trade that they've previous had. Only to not increase trade on sanctioned goods. Basically: "Sell them what you've sold before."
Basically, the status of the sanctions is that it's doing less than the west would like, however, it is doing more than Russia would like as well.
Despite the sanction, freedom of trade/market is still far too valued politically to be reigned in.
@@toyotaprius79 true but it does make it a little more complicated and to an extent more costly.
The sanctions are hurting the global economy as much as Russia. It's stupid blood letting
@@stereomachine no, in wars truth is never in between, always one side is more wrong. guees who guiltier here...
Is that why russias economy will recover partially this year?and that whole 10% drop in economy was actually 2%
As a person living in Kazakhstan, I don't think we can join the sanctions. And it's not about any support Russian action, it's just a shot in the knee.
Since the introduction of even primary sanctions against Russia, the standard of living of the common population has dropt significantly, because there was a lot of trade with Russia. Especially after turning off SWIFT.
Trying to force Kazakhstan to impose sanctions against Russia is like trying to force the UK or Canada to impose sanctions against the USA.
True.
You're probably right. Not to mention that making Russia mad like that might cause Putin to find an excuse to invade your country to "protect Russian speakers" or some other BS reason.
@@snapdragon6601 it's also a point. We share a big, like really big, unprotected by any natural defence, border, and small population around ~20m people.
And we can rely on China, but it is also not the best country to rely on. So, our government is trying to build partnerships with everyone without turning into someone's puppet state. And I can appreciate this political vector.
Я кстати думал на счёт этого, возможно ли поставить блок на количество вывозимой техники в другие страны? Так как цены на все выросли, думаете такое регулирование государством поможет? Давление от РФ хоть и будет большим, но что оно может сделать?
@@甘いパイ-c3w if you're Japanese, doing that may cause your companies relying on exports to collapse. Japan's economy is already tottering as it is. People like to talk about Japan's _lost decade_ but that decade is now 30 years long. And public debt is insane.
I watched a video of a guy exploring a Russian shopping centre to see what brands were still being sold 10 months later and it seems like pretty much everything. PC parts, cameras, laptops, iPhones, clothing brands & even skin care. Everything. Though now with a 10-15% markup. A lot of stores were closed, but others have popped up and you can still get the same items.
Manufacturing warranties were the only issue, but the shops still gave guarantees. He detailed how some of the western and western allied brands were getting around sanctions and how the Russian shops and distributors were still procuring items en mass from the brands that aren't evading sanctions.
The same documentarian also interviews families & different businesses in different tier cities and villages & industries around Russia and how the sanctions are affecting their lives. It seems that the 2014 sanctions had primed them to the tighter ones that came post-2022. One sort of surprising thing was that mass mobilisation has affected business more than sanctions and has caused a lot more pain for the communities too. That's something I personally didn't consider.
Western sanctions are directed against the Russian war machine and Putin supporters, but not against Russian shopping centres.
@@ettoreatalan8303 Your wrong. Western sanctions are to stop or make it as hard as possible to do business in russia. Especially stop the export of technology into Russia. The shopping center was the example of how Russian and Western companies are getting around sanctions. It's clear you didn't even watch this video too as consumer goods are being repurposed for the war machine. And so the sanctions are to stop those consumer goods too.
@@Eoin-B Dual-use products are imported by Russian companies from third-party countries whose economies are closely intertwined with the Russian economy for historical reasons (USSR). If the West does not want to push these countries entirely back into the Russian sphere of influence, the West will have to act cautiously when it comes to secondary sanctions. After all, Russian diplomacy never misses an opportunity to convince countries of the malice of the West and to present Russia as their savior. Dishing out secondary sanctions the way John Rambo dishes out bullets would play very much into Putin's hands.
@@ettoreatalan8303 Now it sounds like your quoting or replying to somebody else. I'm not pushing for anything. this video was about are central asian countries helping Russia evade sanction. I gave an example of where I had learned that the Russians are easily evading sanctions in most areas. And in fact the main thing that seems to be hurting the Russian economy, is the draft and labour fight because of the draft. (In Russian businesses perspective) as it takes out one a huge segment of the market with typically the most disposable income, young single males. While simultaneously driving up the cost of labour and prices due to shortages even though demand is lower.
Then you gave two replies like your not listening.
The video and general beliefs on central Asian countries helping to bypass sanctions have a big flaw. CIS countries used to purchase a lot from Russia pre-war. It was easier for western companies to import to Russia and let companies there manage the smaller more complex countries around Central Asia. I used to sell to Russia 100x what I was selling to Kazakhstan directly (consumer products). I knew about 5% of sales was going to KZ. After the war I have had to shift more distribution directly there so I am selling 4x what I used to in KZ which is still lower than what used to go there via Russia. The analysis needs to include local demand to conclude whether the level of imports is fair or not
That would require more work on the part of the presenters and possibly lead to a more boring video that is not as suitable for their audience. It's so much easier to say washing machines are used for chips.
Yeap, annual 1M euros import of washing machines for a country with population of 20M people is literally nothing.
You shall also account for the russian trades with other countries through New channels, for the possible new suppliers, as well as the deadweight loss due to the sanctions.
Another important country to mention in Russian sanctions busting is Azerbaijan. The EU signed a massive deal with Azerbaijan to buy gas from them and not the Russians when the war got started. But then right after Azerbaijan got the EU gas/oil deal, they signed a deal with Russia to import loads of Russian gas and oil into Baku. Since AZ isn’t subject to any EU-Russia sanctions, they can import as much as they want, and they could easily pump tons of Russian hydrocarbons into the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline that services Europe.
Azerbaijan which, much like Russia, is prospecting some land grab territory from Armenia.
I am pretty sure the EU knows about this.
That explains why Russia didn't attack Azerbaijan after attacking Armenia that will supposedly trigger CSTO's Article 4, which both (Russia and Armenia) of them are members of CSTO to begin with
EU & US know this
Since US is the largest importer of *known* Russian oil *products*
EU buying backdoor
US EU both import nuclear fuel from Russia.
@@thechosenone1533
EU have been mostly mute about recent Nagorno-Karabakh tensions. At least I haven’t seen much reactions on the media.
And EU countries buys natural gas from Azerbaijan, so there is pressure points to apply there.
If say, Kazakhstan tries to actually follow Western sanctions on Russia, then Russia suddenly finds some issues with the oil pipeline (CPC) passing through its territory and transporting the most of Kazakh oil to Europe, which is around 70% of the country's export and major revenue stream, basically the job you do for a living, in simple terms. That pipeline's already been suspended multiple times due to some unexpected "failures" and "wartime mines" found at the bottom of the Black Sea near the Novorossiysk port and cost Kazakhstan some lost profits.
Also consider the Trade Union that allowed Russian goods enter Kazakh market a while ago and impacted Kazakh domestic manufacturers. Now it resulted in Russian dominance at the local household market. The list can go on and on.
In short, Russia has plenty of "tools" for political pressure. Kazakhstan is in a tough spot and has a few options to maneuver around this situation, unless the country's government drastically changes its policies which I hardly believe it will do in the near future
Easily, as most of the world isn't sanctioning them...
Russia has been working to circumvent sanctions, even using the most illegal methods. Central Asia is unlucky due to their past being Russian colonies and Russia still holds grip there.
They are still trying to get microchips out of washing machines so the most important resources are still scarce.
@@Joaquin546 This has been debunked multiple times. Ask anyone that knows even a little bit about microchips and they will tell you it doesn't make any sense.
@@ibrahimmekonnen8259 No it hasn't been debunked comrade. The Chinese don't make enough quality microchips to sell to the russians. Meanwhile the Ukrainians found plenty of washing machines among the looted items of the russians that fled.
@@Joaquin546 Oh I beg to differ. Just because you haven't heard of it does not mean it does not exist. Ask yourself this question. Why should Russia use such a complicated way of getting to microchips that they can import from China and even can produce themselves (Russia has a microchip industry since the Soviet Union). And chips that go into phones and washing machines are the least advanced chips. Furthermore, a bunch of washing machines on its own is no evidence for this (can just as likely be for personal gain). Ukraine will do everything it can to bolster support in the west. Even by playing into the western fantasy that their sanctions have cripelled Russia to such an extent that they need to scavange washing machines for parts.
@@ibrahimmekonnen8259 I’m sure you think that but that doesn’t change reality. Plus even if you are right that shows Russians are lowly thugs stealing and looting from what should be their “fellow Russians”.
FYI chinas microchip industry is second rate and doesn’t produce the high quality tech microchip like Taiwan comrade.
As a Kazakh citizen I understand the concern, but people in the west have to understand that Kazakhstan and other central Asian countries are in an extremely hard situation manny of us don't support the Russian war but the threat of Russia is a large one and we don't want to be the next Ukraine
It's difficult to play this geopolitical game with Russia especially when Russia has called into question our sovereignty and we're so interdependent on Russia I think if the west want to change that they have to offer a better alternative to Russia and guarantee our security both politically and economicly
Many of us support Ukraine many of the post-soviet states like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan we don't want Russia to be questioning the territorial integrity of post Soviet states but inorder to protect ourselves we have to toe a thin line
Glory to Ukraine and all countrys that want freedom from Russia 🇰🇿🇰🇬🇺🇿❤️🤝🏼🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Of course they do. Problem is a lot of them don't really have too many choices.
Central Asia is weak and this is unfortunate due to their location between three despotic regimes, plus an unreliable Taliban (which I deeply hate for their violent radicalism). Unless Central Asia is allowed to be on its own, a big doubt must be taken.
they are on their own, and they choose rusia.
@@rizkyadiyanto7922 Then you haven’t understood what kind of colonialism Russia is.
@@chechenknightslaillaillall2047 And what else?
Afghanistan do anything to have international recongise and market
Taliban doesn't care long as they gain some recongise and they already make deal with China despite China imprisoned million of muslim in camp
@@tiglishnobody8750 Honestly, the idea of “Islamic solidarity” never exists, even I am Muslim myself. The separation of Sunni and Shia reminds me a bitter lesson about trusting people yelling these words. Erdogan can even sell his country for Russia to block Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids, then who know?
The only thing I want from Central Asia is they must free themselves from Russia. We are not lucky, we lost our homeland since 2000. They are luckier, and they should do it.
cia bot spotted.
85% of countries in the world have not imposed sanctions. Russia is a country of huge resources, and everyone needs resources. Europe has only lost the big money market with its sanctions. Here are the European car companies. And what? China alone opened 900 car dealerships in Russia in 2022. Huawei, which, under sanctions, is increasingly selling its equipment in Russia. Russia will sell its cheap resources to China. The cost of manufacturing goods in China will be low. European production of goods will not be profitable. European companies are already fleeing to the US, India, China and other countries. Europe is waiting for unemployment and poverty.
This still makes it more expensive for Russia to import these parts
Tho the primary idea is that they have no access to These parts so they cant manifacture their Equipment (still Ironic cuz МЦСТ exist) and lot of russian Banks are starting to use the chinese CIPS System i effect evadeing SWIFT...
**huffs more copium**
Even if Russia buy things from asian countries ,that things are more expensive and this is good
True, but it still strengths the grip of Russia on these countries which are just another former territory of the Russian empire/Soviet union, the very thing Putin wants to restore
@@tomlxyz Strengthen yes ,but in favour of Armenia and Khazakstan , their relations with Russia was very one sided until now , finally Russia depends on them for consumer goods ,and this countries don't want to be a part of Russia especially that many of them have a muslim majority
@@flavius5722 Yeah so they have some leverage now against Russia.
@@flavius5722 Armenia is actually a cheistian country, though with neither a catholic, nor an (Byzantine) orthodox origin.
@@drbrown747 I didn't say Armenia it's a Islamic county,I say "many of them" in the previous comment I said asian countries,and Armenia it's the only one christian, Uzbekistan, Khazakstan, Turkmenistan are all the countries mention by TLDR news and are Muslim majority, Armenia it's there too but she is the exception
Sanctioning central Asian countries could be dangerous if this theory is true such an action can draw them closer to Russia and it’s ambitions in the long run.
Russia would have been fully aware of what sanctions were coming so would have taken steps to mitigate them prior.
Precisely. Putin has been preparing for this war for 20ish years. He clearly massively underestimated the corruption within the military and its effectiveness but that doesn't mean tactics like these sanction avoidance have been too.
@@Roggor Russia has a history of starting campaigns badly and then turning it around. Clearly they're not going to capture Kiev, but a deal will be reached where eventually they'll annex parts of Eastern Ukraine.
@@Mitjitsu As much as such an arrangement would catch in the throats of the virtue signalling West, it really is the only outcome that avoids a nuclear conflict.
For those who are inevitably going to comment on this, no, this is not the same as the appeasement the allies tried on Hitler in the 1930s.
He was greeted with either cheers or complete capitulation up until Poland.
Putin has had his nose bloodied at the first charge.
He physically cannot be Hitler 2: Zyklon B Boogaloo.
*Central Asia cannot support Ruzzia forever the economy aren’t better then Ruzzian, it is matter of time they would limit it.*
Turkey isn't imposing sanctions, nor are India and China.
This is true. The FT covered this topic this week. Indeed the export volume chart used in the presentation was from that article. It is worth a read.
Essentially there is a taskforce being setup to deal with countries that reside in central Asia but the remit will include Turkey, The UAE and China.
Bloomberg also reported last week that the UAE will have a particular focus because there are companies there that arrange shadow fleet shipping for Russian oil and for the transiting components used in Iranian, military drone production.
@@donchu Not sure that UAE is helping Iran with drone components but any company seeking to avoid sanctions has multiple options, international banking makes it easier to hide the identity of a customer.
@@mrmr446 companies operating within the UAE conducting that business.
Well, this is what the Bloomberg article asserted.
@@donchu Seeing as the UAE is not kindly disposed towards the regime in Tehran I questioned it helping with drones. Unnamed companies is all a bit vague.
@@donchu they just ignoring India?
When you see a Russian tank turret spinning like a top as it orbits the Earth, you'll know it was on the spin cycle.
TLDR on how TLDR was wrong, nice!
What was TLDR wrong about? Sorry, I missed it.
@@KanLuxiang , for months they were pretty much defending sanctions for Russia and how that would be a powerful weapon against Putin.
In the end it looks like those sanctions are hurting more the west than Russia.
@@tellmelullabies5552 That is not the takeaway of this video. Sanctions are still hurting Russia more than the West. They just have several avenues to avoid the sanctions, bc sanctions are hard to enforce with 100% efficiency.
idr if it was in this video or another one, but they talked about how Russia was lacking certain spare parts for military equipment and were importing Chinese built ones that had a higher failure rate on the battlefield. They also mention how they are using chips from Western appliances. These chips may work, but are not going to be as effective as chips specifically designed for military use. It's like slapping on duct tape & claiming that it's as good as new.
@@KanLuxiang yes that may all be true but is it more significant than the impact on energy prices specially for Germany? The increase is so high that big corporations are talking about moving out of Germany because as we all know, it’s all about maximizing profits.
@@tellmelullabies5552 The German gov could initiate policies to keep more companies in the country. As an environmentalist, I hope this has been a big wake up call for Germany to restart their nuclear plants. The German Greens are just as complicit as Merkel in empowering Putin, imo.
The crucial thing is that a level of sanction busting is always expected and taken into account, this was also the case with Russia. The even more crucial thing is that evading sanctions still puts a burden on the sanctioned economy because even if it's not impossible to get certain products, it becomes harder and more expensive. Therefore they still do their job. This was never a case of suddenly collapsing the russian economy, this was about grinding it down and putting pressure on Russia, particularly in the military procurement aspect, which, combined with the ongoing and skyrocketing war expenditures IS reducing the russian economy significantly. That's why sanctions were and still are progressively being applied. This year, without the kind of revenue that they used to get from europe buying gas and oil, with the rest of the sanctions going on, with the individuals sanctioned directly that support the regime and with the prospect of facing an even stronger Ukraine on the field, this trend will just continue and become more severe. We on the other side can only persist and then wait and see how much is too much for Russia. In the meantime, they could just lose the war on the battlefield anyway.
The question is what will collapse first. The Russian military, the Putin regime, or all of Russia. One should not hope that Putin will end the Ukraine war on his own without something having collapsed.
Dummy, it was about collapsing the Ruusian economy. But since that didn't happen the West changed the narrative and now they say it was intended as a slow working poison. Doesn't make any sense if you're trying to stop a war. Don't you agree you silly kiddo.
The only central Asian country that needs oil and gas and isn’t near other central Asian countries with oil and gas is probably Kazakhstan, but Kazakhstan and Russia’s relations are deteriorating due to Putin claiming all of former soviet countries as just land that Russia gave them for free and the rest of of the Stans can just get it from nearby countries, (Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan).
Kazakhstan produces and sells its own oil and gas.
Kazakh here, hi. We have our own oil and gas. The reason why Kazakhstan can't just tell Russia to fuck off is because of very close economic relationships. Russia is Kazakhstan's biggest trading partner, and sadly we can't just shut down the door on russians because it will heavily affect our economy as well.
The part about Putin's claims is true, I'm from the north part of Kazakhstan, we have lot of pro-putin ethnic russians there and russian propaganda spreads it's fascist shit there as well. So overall the situation isn't very nice.
@@AslanAlmukhambetov Nobody is claiming anything. If you have more brains than Ukraine to realize economical benefits from good relationships with Russia - this is enough.
@@alexsilent5603 Ukraine had a choice and they chose EU over Russia. Unfortunately in Kazakhstan we don't have such choice, but I assure you if only we had at least one EU member state at our borders - we would gladly develop economic relations with them instead of Russia.
@@alexsilent5603 hahahaha good economical benifits with russia like what be my friend or ill shoot you what a nice diplomatic relations with neighboring countries russia have
Even though there are work arounds, they add extra middle men who will expect a cut.
What on earth do western countries' sanctions have to do with central Asia? It`s in the name! Most countries outside the EU/UK/USA 'block' are very ambivalent concerning the whole Russia Ukraine issue - there was a certain amount of sympathy towards Ukraine at the start but that`s pretty much faded by now!
" Is Central Asia Helping Russia Evade Sanctions? "
Me: "Well I sure hope so!"
The title should be: How come Western world is not actually the whole Earth? 🤣
🇺🇲 imposed over 12,000 sanctions on 🇷🇺 and according to the IMF their economy is projected to grow 📈 more than 🇬🇧 🇩🇪 in 2023
I think this is just a clear case of Central Asia not just wanting to not join in the sanctions, but their economy cannot allow it to happen
You say carrots not sticks, but then completely fail to describe any carrots to those countries that depend on Russia for various things (hint: it's not just Central Asia, many Central-Eastern European countries also have a similar problem, e.g. importing nearly 100% of their coal and gas from Russia).
They may have not given examples, but the West could offer alternatives to the Belt & Road Initiative, aka funding critical infrastructure projects, if these countries (slowly) decouple more from Russia. If we make the offer less shady than the Chinese one, then we could be a viable alternative.
@@KanLuxiang There is no amount of infrastructure that will take away the cost of transporting stuff to Central Asia from the West. China on the other hand actually neighbours them and can sell stuff to them while Europe on the other hand is not known for being able to export to poor countries. Their other neighbours are not particular manufacturing powerhouses that they could build any other regional infrastructure other than connecting them to China and China has that taken care of. Russia is a natural trading partner for Central Asia.
@@attheratehandle You know that China is building infrastructure in Africa, despite not neighboring it, right? All the West has to do is supply the capital and technical knowledge. They don't have to directly connect them all the way to Bulgaria.
Yeah but many of those countries, like Poland, have called for the strongest sanctions and the largest military buildup to stop Russia
@@KanLuxiang Africa can actually use that infrastructure and China can actually build it. That gives more benefit than just the loan interest rate. Also China can actually sell stuff to Africa (not to mention transport by sea is cheap, land is not), they are planting seeds for tomorrow and fatten up Africa as a market.
None of these factors are present in an interaction of West-Central Asia.
How about STOPPING the sanctions.
We've done this for nearly 50 years. And I can't remember a SINGLE country this was either effective on or didn't hurt the people putting out the sanctions in the first place.
Just put a cap on the ammount of high tech products Russias neighbors can import that should easily fix the problem witouth having to do secondary sanctions.
How bold... USA can't control its own southern border, but you say that it's easy to control a border between two countries on the other side of the world.
That's placing sanctions on western companies.
@@randomlygeneratedname7171 So?
@@alexsilent5603 shut up vatnik
That's assuming that the Russians won't start buying up the washing machines, etc. that were meant for the citizens of those countries.
There are still Western companies trading in Russia!
VW(Volkswagen) for one!
German companies seams to have a lot of investments in Russia. Maybe thats why the German Government is so reluctant to send heavy military equipment to Ukraine.
Germany has been fucked by Russians during the Nazi days. Now they are just Russian energy dependent. If Russia chooses to eliminate Germany they just gotta switch of fuel.
west cut of gas supply from russia? west nooo but we need it. asia country that has nothing to do with the war.... ohh you didnt criticize russia, you must be support the war.
it would be great to know the volumes going through central Asia ...and those going through Turkey 🤔you know that country that is part of NATO and doing a lot of business with Russia.
Yeah via German companies...
I’m sure central banks in the west, be it in the US or EU, are aware of these import outliers that are the central Asian nations. We might be purposefully allowing them to do so, be it for strategic reasons (exports/etc) or out of sheer interest on how long these lifelines can go on for Russia with Putin thinking they’re reliable only to cut them off when it’s most crucial.
Those countries are reliant on getting energy and goods out of Russia. Trying to sever them from russian trade, would hurt them more than Russia. We also can't just limit the product deliveries to pre war levels. Then all western products would just be resold to Russia, because they can pay more than the local population.
This guy thinks they're letting Russia get away with it on purpose 💀
It's best if west does follow its jurisdiction, stop bullying smaller countries. Anyway brics is now getting stronger 😂 not military but yeah fuck the west
I don’t think Central Asia is helping *THAT* much considering the us inadvertently kneecap them
As an electronics engineer I would say that these sanctions are still effective, just not in the way people expect them to be. Russia is importing washing machines through 3rd party countries to strip for parts, think about how much time and cost that adds to their weapon building process.
As an example lets say my company and a russian company are building the same weapons system:
I buy the components (chips) I need from any large component distributor, ship them to the assembler who uses an automatic pick and place machine to put the components on the circuit board, put the board in my system, Done. Fast, automated, cheap.
The russian company orders washing machines for 1000x its value in chips, plus overhead to reship it to russia, then someone manually tears it apart, and carefully desolders the chips by hand hoping they don't ruin any in the process. They ship those chips to their assembler, who may not be able to use automated machining to place the parts as they aren't packed properly, so some parts are being hand soldered which then increase timeline and costs. Then these boards will be tested, likely to a not insignificant failure rate due to moisture damage or what not. Put the boards in their system, Done. Slow, manual, expensive.
Significantly Increasing the cost of production and repair of advanced weapons means russia needs to put far more resources into getting equipment than Ukraine has to. In the end their equipment that is far more expensive, takes longer to get, and likely has a higher failure rate. This is still an effective strategy to slow down russias war machine even if its not 100% effective. Think death by 1000 cuts.
The only thing that could potentially stop Russian supply is a ban to trade (only military and dual-use goods) with countries that trade with Russia but it’s kinda hard and not actually reliable.
Lets remember thats theres Nesquik in North korea....
If the components for their tanks and planes are very specific as you say then don’t sell them to anybody.
thanks to the sanctions, we watch TH-cam in Russia without advertising, it's a little funny how many companies just changed their names, I issued a Chinese card for payment and also spent $ 15 to travel to Belarus for a visa card, now the factories that assembled European cars are now assembling Chinese ones, but I think. WHICH is very good that Russia does not sell Boeings and Airbuses, we will build our own planes
What about imposing a quota on all goods exported to central Asian countries, looking at the historic figures pre-war and agreeing amongst all western countries to have a database so they can collectively sell a set amount of washing machines for example, making it impossible for these countries to sell to Russia, or they will have to sacrifice their domestic market.
You do know those countries a sovereign they don’t to obey whatever the west said
If Russia is willing to pay more than the customers in those countries they'll still get access to those goods
This would push those countries towards Russia as the West would take on the mantle of economic aggressors whereas Russia would just be business as usual if not more so.
What kind of super advanced chips are on washing machines that China can't produce them? And the stuff from China has a 40% failure rate but the ones from the west is 2%? Are they buying from _Wish_ ? My washing machine is from LG but it was made in China. There's no 40% failure rate. Or even 2%. WTF are they talking about? 2% is really high!
I'm just spitballing, maybe this might not move them more towards Russia, because people always think for their interests first if they have to sacrifice not being able to buy new things just to sell them to the Russians, because there is not enough for both, they might not be happy and just choose the new Hotpoint over Russia
It’s not Central Asia that helps Russia to circumvent the sanctions, it’s the free market. If there are supply and demand, then they want to meet, and any arbitrary mechanism like sanctions only increases transaction costs, it doesn’t have the power to stop things from happening.
I don’t really understand, why are secondary sanctions off the table. Who cares if we piss of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, moreover couldn’t we just do an export quota so they can’t import more than 2021 levels?
Ohhh... because belt and road go from there ... and to China which very important to eu ... not for usa...
Thank you.
Reputations are being defined, more cooperation among allies, more prudence with others, including secondary sanctions. Stop strengthening adversaries, more internal investments, better public oversight & accountability.
4:12 pejoobably 🤣
Ironic to see a UK minister interviewed on this subject. The number of sanctioned individuals by the UK is at 10% of those sanctioned by the EU and Londongrad continues to be the offshore bank of Putin's oligarchs. How about some secondary sanctions there?
the tories are in power, they wont sanction those that put them there.
Sanctions are not a spear, they're a slow spreading fire. Russia also prepared for factions before the war which means they'll take even longer to have their intended effect.
Yeah it soon backfires to u... Check how dollar has been dumped globally. Soon Ur debt will come back to ya... Brace for inflation that u have never seen before 😂
Europa is getting poorer while asia gets rich
Well asia is piss poor compared to europe right now
China's recent COVID outbreak slowed down their economic growth
@@devinmes1868 it's over already, and in the first 4 months of 2023, China will grow more than the US would in the whole year.
And Asia is not China alone.
Europe is not getting poorer. Most of Europe experience GDP growth. Asia is not one country, Russia is in recession, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in deep crisis, Turkey has wild inflation, China has troubles in many sectors. The overal GDP of Asia might grow, but some countries are in trouble.
@@samuela-aegisdottir i live in nl that was once a social country now the quality of life is going down the drain
I started to realise how biased this channel is. Why don't you mention or ever spoke about Ursula von der Leyen's deal with dictator Aliev on gas import from Azerbaijan which eventually is delivered from Russia. So basically Europe get it's gas from Putin.
You forgot to mention TURKEY as another sanction boycotter
On a positive note, this is strengthening the Kazak’s & Uzbek’s making them stronger & harder for Russia to eventually invade
Russia has no interest in invading anyone. It never had 😂
@@maskyb3509 if you ignore Georgia, Chechnya, & Ukraine are just full of Ruzzian dead soldiers from those poorly planned invasions
While it is true, that the effect of sanctions dwindle, it is not in this timescale. First, you miss parts, deplete your stock/reserve until some way around is found, now likely many factories are looking for a limited alternative. Everyone who cant afford it or cant acquire enough of necessary parts, has to close or fire people. The end product is more expensive in production.
And in case of "reverse engineering", it is much more labor intense to get to those parts as well.
There's another reason why secondary sanctions are dangerous. Pulling Russia out of Swift showed that core Western services for globalization purposes can be repurposed for political reasons. This, by itself, was an extremely risky move, especially when Russia and China are looking to make their own variants on Swift. If NATO punishes countries with secondary sanctions, there becomes a direct need to pick a side - and the West may be pushing certain countries out of its sphere of influence when it had the exact opposite goal in mind
The whole semiconductor stuff is smart AF
Seriously you have a sanction minister.... Weird
That'll be fun. But no. 6:56 that's Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister of State for Indo-Pacific, responsible for that area, and also sanctions. It's a mid-level position. One of 4 junior ministers and 2 parlimentary under-secretaries reporting to the foreign secretary, and the foreign secretary is one of the 4 "great offices of state". Trevelyan was previously a full minister but got demoted in the reshuffle that happened after PM Lettuce expired and was replaced.
Basically everyone is except Europe is helping Russia evade sanctions ?
World is trading
Heck even some European nations are trading
Out with pulter….
I cannot stomach punishing central Asian countries for doing business with Russia, it's almost victim-blaming. What is their alternative? Who else is lining up to invest in their economies? Who is going to protect them from Russia if they make Putin their enemy? They've got to make the best of where they are, and unless western countries are willing to commit to supporting them in breaking away from the Russian sphere, we can't be making demands.
The same way other countries do.
The solution is simple: impose a trade cap on these third party countries, relating it to the total amount of exports in 2021 plus a 10% margin. That's it. Please cite me when applying that strategy.
It's not evasion, it's FREE MARKET CAPITALISM baby!
Is it free market capitalism if it's state sponsored?
@@tomlxyz money is money, have some more copium
These sanctions seem ironically anti capitalism lol
when USA occupied Iraq, no one done sanaction, why?
Says Central Europe countrys shows indian trucks
Central asian companies could simply claim they sold stuff to central asian citizens and that those citizens did what they want with them. "including driving to russia and with the stuff they sold to them ".
A russian agent residing in kazakstan could simply buy 40 washing machines as kazak citizen load them on a big truck and travel to russia with them. As long as your not selling them directly to russian companies it dosnt violate sanctions
Why don't EU completely ban Russian oil, fuel, and nuclear supplies??
Like black markets, it's not whether it's happening, it's whether it's significant enough to make a difference on the battlefield. Your observation that Russia is not deploying its airforce in Ukraine is the answer. Sanctions aren't perfect, but they're working well enough at very little expense to the Western Alliance.
Is Central Asia helping Russia avoid sanctions? And how much?
Yes.. and yes.
The main thing is to be happy with the implementation of sanctions against Russia
i would very much like usa to introduce secondary sanctions.... this might hurt Asia in short term but in long term, we will get out of western hands... and USA will be remembered in the same way other imperialist states are remembered...
In the short term, it would completely destroy several economies. I'm not exaggerating. Do you really want to hand over all of out territory to Putin on a silver platter?
I’ve heard the saying that you can still get the same things in Russia despite the sanctions, you might just have to pay 20% more.
Like us in the west with our inflation
Well, why not quotas then. Cap of 125% of 2021 worth of exports
Of course the process to track and adjust sanctions takes time but the 80% consumption rate in Kazakhstan, and other countries, should have raised immediate red flags. I wonder if greed/profit are being taken more seriously than the sanctions.
Why don't u ask uncle Sam about the real greed😂
@@maskyb3509 How old are you? Of course America is the cradle of greed. We are not alone, unfortunately. At least here some laws still work.
These countries helping Russia can also be sanctioned.
Why not select one of the offending countries and impose max sanctions on them-really thump them hard-and then turn to the others and ask 'which road do you want to go down?' At the same time it is important to prevent PRC from obtaining the expertise to manufacture decent chips or they will just supply Russia with all they want.
This is what bullies do. Look, are you the good guys or the bad guys here. Stop doing evil s*****. Those shortcuts are tempting in the short run, but you end up screwing yourself in the long run when everybody hates you.
How do you think the CCP came to be in power in China. The civil war was Chiang's to lose. And lose it he did. The generalissimo had all the advantages. Think about WHY he lost and how China became communist.
@@danielch6662 I don't agree. Making a demonstration on one would save the others from suffering. They have to acknowledge that by facilitating Russia they have allied themselves with Russia and there are consequences for that. It's a war, not a sports event and war calls for hard measures.
When making grand moves, expect grand counter measures. The world is watching and will rally against the west.
@@jimcronin2043 I am pretty sure they will all pick Russia over Europe since Russian and central asian trades are higher than that on Europe,
Central Asia has bought these goods and can do what it wants with them. let them mind their own business
Logical move would be to put Kyrgistan and Armenia on sanctions or simply forbid them to transport these goods to Russia.
Just more reason to broaden both the amount of goods sanctions, and the countries targeted, aswell as harshly punishing domestic evaders of sanctions with asset confiscation and prison time.
You'd think we should be deploying secondary sanctions
That information in microchips make little sense to me. The chips in those devices are very basic. I could buy much more powerful stuff on ebay in significant quantities.
sanction will only work on small countries
Evanding sanctions is not hard. But you pay multipul more and can only get a small amount.
4:48 that's an Indian truck not a central Asian one
Turkey is the number one country that helps russia evade sanctions
Creating more sanction on top of an existing sanction that looped holes were found is not going to solve the issue. As with there will always be more of it.
Ultimately when countries economically co-dependent on each other's trading and logistics. They must trade, and telling central Asia to suck it and obey will not help. It simply incentivize all parties to be ever more creative in trade practices.
Economic wars are fought with Economics, and legal sanction are a legal tool not economic ones.
it is still unclear to me how can Russia pay for the products to those central asian countries
In places like Krygyzstan Rubles are freely exchanged for local currency (SOM /KGS). The Krygyz local economy is heavily dollarised.
I read somewhere that something like 30% of Krygyz GDP is remittance payments from abroad.
De facto "clearing house" countries such as Kirgyzstan, and/or doing "off shoring", shell companies, even using crypto tokens in lax jurisdictions (e.g. Maldives, but even notoriously lax Dubai, etc)
by using money that isnt dollar?
@@skellurip unknown. There was a brief flurry of Russians flying into Bishkek, selling Rubles for USD and going back to Russia. The local government started putting $10k caps on these sorts of transactions.
I know a guy there who's basically quit his job and now buys cars in the UAE for Russian clients.
They give him Rubles, he converts that to SOM and then that is converted to UAE for the car purchase. The car is then driven to Russia via Kazakhstan.
Apparently lots of business like this. When buying the car, the clients usually want service kits and brakes chucked in. Probably half those cars then get sold on in Russia.
Expensive way of doing business. But there's apparently alot of this sort of business. You now half of Kyrgyzstan attending the car auctions in Dubai.
But yes, settling in USD is easiest there. Even all the remittance services won't allow you to convert to SOM.
You could establish tariffs, something like 10%-50%, against all countries that are known to engage in this type of practice, on goods that can be used for maintaining the war effort. This way you could make it more expensive for Russia, while simultaneously maintaining (or even increasing) revenue for the sanctioning countries, which would indirectly help Ukraine.
Yeah try it. We are already dumping dollars and bonds. 😂 The dump will get more agressive😂
Isn't there some provision that penalizes countries who aid Russia in evading sanctions?
Watch the video
Turkey is the middleman
Well this way of getting around sanctions of getting imports from neutral countries has been successful. The best examples are the German empire and the Third Reich, both got imports such as food from other countries.
Using carrots instead of sticks is a bad idea, because it incentivizes all other countries in the world to get carrots.
So the incentive is for all other countries to get on the west's side? Carrots might cost some but it also gives some in return in having less enemies to fight
Using sticks instead of carrots is a bad idea, because it incentivizes all other countries in the world to get sticks.
@@ggwp1847 huh? If one country got secondary sanction and all other countries would like to get sanctioned too?
@@wirmansyahchandrawijaya407 yes. The one who want to overthrow this monetary monopoly will join.
@@jirachi-wishmaker9242 damn bro i did not know every non west country want to get sanctioned just to get out of the financial system made by the west that they are completely depended on and have nothing to replace it. I completely agree with you.
Hold on, how is Russia paying for all these imports if they have been kicked out of the swift banking system and had their forex reserves seized?
The swift banking system isn't the only way to pay, it's just the most widespread one. And only the forex reserves they had in other countries were frozen but it's not the only reserves they have
@@tomlxyz Do they still have Dollar reserves?
In places like Krygyzstan Rubles are freely exchanged for local currency (SOM). Krygyzstan is heavily dollarised.
Also, you find branches of Russian banks operating there.
The KGS is heavily correlated to RUB because a large part of the Kyrgyz population work in Russia. As a result Krygyzstan often experiences shortages of dollars. When visiting there in April last year there was a strict, cap of $250 per withdrawal as people lost faith in the local currency.
@@donchu
That might work for small scale, I doubt they can exchange dollars in much larger scale necessarily for import/export.
Sure Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries can transact in rubles but beyond that niche market, a pile of rubles are worthless.
@@lv3609 true. Although, I wouldn't be surprised. The place is literally bandit country, I have never visited anywhere as corrupt in my life.
But the export metrics are there, something is happening.
EU evading Russian energy sanctions through India, China & central Asia and Russia evading western technology sanctions through China & central Asia... The whole sanctions thing is like Ron telling Harry about dragon through Hermione in Harry Potter & the goblet of fire 🤣🤣🤣
Sympathy for Armenia in their ongoing border conflict just reached a new low. If they don't care about the rule of international law, and give us the middle finger when it comes to Russian sanctions, then why should we care about their borders? And why not include them in secondary sanctions?
Europe never cared about Armenia's borders, and did little to defend it from attack. So Armenia has little to lose from this. Russia has been keeping the delicate peace between Armenia and Azerbijan since 2020, so Armenia has to align to Russia.
I can't believe I have to convince my friend that Borat is not really from Kazakhstan. Despite being the most famous guy from Kazakhstan.
AS A KAZAKH, HE IS NOT FROM KAZAKHSTAN 🤬.
@@iVyperion but he is more famous than any real people from Kazakhstan
@@freddiemercury2075 He is from Britain, not Kazakhstan.
@@iVyperion he is Sacha Baron Cohen a British actor, who portrays the fictional character Borat ... yes Sherlock I know ...
Wow, what a shocker. It's almost as if they've learned from Iran and North Korea.
Lol. They have learned from usa. And how they steal resources, make fake wars etc.... Middle East completely destroyed by greedy west. Even with all this loot west does not have any human ethics, lives and values. Everything is superficial😂