Fourwheel Trader - Car depreciation analysis Please check my post about the 430 manual gearbox option. The 430 did have full manual and semi auto gearbox options. Thanks!
Another exceptional video! Emotion indexes toward the 360 with its classic-for-the-era lines however logical points to the 430 given the lower maintenance costs as no belt servicing is needed. Some feel the 430s tail lights atop the rear haven’t aged well. Hard to argue they are wrong. The 430 performance and noise could forgive that.
In the depriciation curve you should be looking at a price of a single model year as a function of price in a certain time (2017, 2018, 2019...) and not price of different model years in the same year (2020)
I know that gated shifter was an option for F-430 but only handful were requested and produced. Then Ferrari did not offer gated shifter anymore making F-430 the last model that you can find with gated shifter.
The problem with the analysis is that it does not track historical price trends, it is only using pricing of model years in the current market. Later model F430's were more expensive and came with options such as the pricy CCB's as standard. This difference will artificially create a higher "depreciation" when looked at this context. In reality the F430 market is levelling out, certainly not depreciating at 9-10k per year
This is only a problem if you look to cars for which the depreciation curve is fully completed (e.g classics). For those, model year doesn't play a role in the price anymore and looking to the depreciation per year with the model years makes no sense indeed. For the f430 i dont see this as an issue. You can see for example how well the curve aligns with the 360 one.
I recently purchased a 2006 Z4 M for significantly reduced price as compared to new. Gotta love the power of depreciation and love the rev happy S54 engine!
They are asking prices indeed. It would be better to use selling prices but they are not available anywhere. Also, using selling prices would mean that the market would shift along the price axis. All the relative rates would therefore remain more or less te same.
I drove a F430 in Maranello that had 242,000 km. I wouldn't be worried about a car with 50,000 miles. They can last and they are amazing to drive. It feels like driving with a dragon over your shoulder. Great content, as usual!
ftboomer1 Its not just the mileage its the condition of the car that people worried about. Ferraris with 50k miles tend to present themselves with beat up conditions, below average paint condition and nasty interiors such as beat up side bolsters, leather shrinkage, and sticky buttons. People in the USA just don’t look after their cars
When I start my 430 I can care less about what it's worth that's not why we buy these cars except for the value to our ears! If you're in it for depreciation values you're not a true Ferrari lover. I'll take my F430 F1 normally aspirated V8 exhaust sound over any late model turbo "fake" tuned Ferrari although beautiful & amazing performance cars in their own category.
430 spyder is much higher because you get to enjoy the amazing sweet sound of 430, with stock exhaust , which is unique and imho superior to 360 and 458.
I generally do not think that looking at price versus model year is the best way to analyze the depreciation. The milage method is a little better. But the better way would have been to see what one madel year had been worth through the years. For example ... a plot of the cost history of ONLY a 2007 F430 through the years (2007 till now 2020). That is the true depreciation of that car !!!. Looking at the cost of the car versus the model year at almost 15 years later is not of much value. They are ALL similarly priced with a gap of only about 30k from oldest to newest. Whereas if you looked at the cost of the 2007 car IN 2007 it had an average MSRP sticker price of about $175000. Adjust that considering inflation of 25% since 2007 ... that MSRP is equal to about $218000. Then you need to do research to see what the car sold for in the succeeding next 13 years and account for inflation from each of those years till now !!!. With just the 2 points I mentioned you can see that the car depreciated from $218,000 to about $100,000 in 13 years. That's about $9000 a year !!!! Which would indicate that next year the car would be worth $91,000, but thats just not true !! SOooo in order to predict the future depreciation, you need to know the shape of the curve (in between 2007 and 2020) and to do that you need all the average prices of the 2007 F430 from 2007 till now or at least in the last 5 years !!! The average price of a 2007 F430 last year was about the same as this year so it really has flattened out quite a bit. So my depreciation prediction is that its close to a bottom. But without doing all the work I mentioned (or at least for the last 5 years) you cant really give a more exact prediction.
Hi, i agree with you that it is better to look at the value of a model year over time. However, as far as i'm aware, this data is not available. The method which use acts as a proxy and it works the best for newer cars. After all, for those you can see the full curve and model year is key for the value. The older the car, in general, the higher the importance of the mileage. To get a full sense of the 430s depreciation curve, it is possible to include the 360, 458, and 488. I just did this for a new video and the curves line up almost excactly. Hence, i believe that it gives a good approximation of the 430 values. Nevertheless, what this method will never capture are shifts in the full market. If all the 430s will for example increase with 10%, that wouldn't be visible.
There is a pop-up in the video stating that there was in an error in the video regarding the F430. Only the automatics were included. The 360 market is split by manual and automatic.
Great video! Unfortunately, contrary to the data in the video the 430 did have a 3 pedal full manual gearbox option and the F1 paddle shift option. Huge price difference between the two. I think this throws much of the depreciation values off and explains why the curve is not as you expected. FYI. The 430 used the exact same gearbox in the stick shift and paddle shift cars. Only difference was the F1 paddle gearbox used a hydraulic pump and computer to shift while controlling throttle input when requested by a paddle click. This holds true for the 360 as well but the 430 F1 shifts much better than the 360.
You are right. There are some manuals indeed, they are just very rare. That's a mistake from my side. All the cars in the data are however automatics. I inserted a note in the video where the error occurs. Thanks for pointing it out.
In the depriciation curve you should be looking at a price of a single model year as a function of price in a certain time (2017, 2018, 2019...) and not price of different model years in the same year (2020)
Im afraid that the data you describe is not readily available. As such, i think that this approach serves as a good proxy. Especially for the newer cars.
100% agree. I would go as far as to say that for a car of this age, the depreciation methodology used in this video has close to zero value. A car may be appreciating in value, but this video’s methodology would suggest its depreciating, just because newer model years are more expensive relative to older. The sample size is also too small with too few variables controlled for.
This analysis is fundamentally flawed. The price of 430 is steady or rising. Ie no depreciation. Newer 430 are however worth more and will do for several more years.
After you own a F430 and realize the maintenance is fair, the joy of seeing the most beautiful Ferrari in your garage, seeing it again and again and thinking you made it, you goal and trophy is Ferarri Red, hearing the noise and the pleasure of driving it, the depreciation rate becomes irrelevant, you know that the F430 was the smartest purchase in your life. Specially if you are a Ferrari enthusiast!
I put a comment but it seems not uploaded.... I put it again. How did you get so many information in order to make this analysis (Prices per version, miles, private owner versus dealers,...etc...etc) ? I tried to do the same but all is manual!. Thanks for your return:)
Hi, I own both a Ferrari California T and a 599. The video was spot on for the Cali T, could you do the 599 please? I think that this car is a future classic, what do you think? Pls exclude the GTO
You were surpriced by the (steep) value drop of the F430. Take any McLaren and you will see it is shocking. Take any model and it can be the worst value for money you have ever seen. impressive analyse though, take a english course please, can help bumb up the views
I so appreciate your work - well done!!! Request, would you create a sorted list of the cars you have analyzed with a link to the TH-cam video - keeping this up-to-date and making it a part of your "more" information will greatly enhance our ability to enjoy your work - thanks!!! PS: I have a 2016 Corvette Z06 - I'm unsure if your have analyzed this specific model of Corvettes.
Thanks. I have playlists sorted by brand on the channel's main page; th-cam.com/channels/vuqaQ4IyACFWmR0E-aBouQ.html?view_as=subscriber . Those might be useful as a reference.
Given the comments, it would be very interesting to see the difference in F430 prices from F1 to Manual gear shift and the likelihood of depreciation, if any, for the Manual Cars. Might explain your high depreciation value for the F1 cars c.f. others.
** Would you take the 430 over a 360? **
Fourwheel Trader - Car depreciation analysis
Please check my post about the 430 manual gearbox option. The 430 did have full manual and semi auto gearbox options. Thanks!
You are right. It's a mistake from my side. I will put a note in the video. There are however no manuals in the data set.
Yes no brainer. The maintenance on the 360 is much higher than a 430. That alone will beat the depreciation of the 430.
Another exceptional video! Emotion indexes toward the 360 with its classic-for-the-era lines however logical points to the 430 given the lower maintenance costs as no belt servicing is needed. Some feel the 430s tail lights atop the rear haven’t aged well. Hard to argue they are wrong. The 430 performance and noise could forgive that.
In the depriciation curve you should be looking at a price of a single model year as a function of price in a certain time (2017, 2018, 2019...) and not price of different model years in the same year (2020)
1 out of each 10 F430s produced is equiped with a gated shifter (and therefore much more valuable)
There is a seperate note in the video saying that there are indeed manuals. The data only includes automatics.
I know that gated shifter was an option for F-430 but only handful were requested and produced. Then Ferrari did not offer gated shifter anymore making F-430 the last model that you can find with gated shifter.
Well the manual conversions available now will chip away at their premium
these analysis are getting better and better - more in depth and complete
It’s only a matter of time the F430 appreciates
I am so excited to and looking forward to purchasing a F430 spider red/tan Alex Scottsdale, AZ
I'm in the market for a f430 now and wow... really insightful! Thank you
Thanks. You can find the latest market update over here: th-cam.com/video/Ealr3iYdFhA/w-d-xo.html
The problem with the analysis is that it does not track historical price trends, it is only using pricing of model years in the current market. Later model F430's were more expensive and came with options such as the pricy CCB's as standard. This difference will artificially create a higher "depreciation" when looked at this context.
In reality the F430 market is levelling out, certainly not depreciating at 9-10k per year
This is only a problem if you look to cars for which the depreciation curve is fully completed (e.g classics). For those, model year doesn't play a role in the price anymore and looking to the depreciation per year with the model years makes no sense indeed. For the f430 i dont see this as an issue. You can see for example how well the curve aligns with the 360 one.
Would you analyze the maserati spyder m138
The M4 Competition would be a good, almost affordable, car to analyze.
BMW Z4 M Roadster and Coupe 2006-2008.
I love the Z4 M. Are you in the market for one?
@@fourwheeltrader I have a Roadster. Considering Cayman GT4. Great videos by the way. Totally addictive. Keep it up!
I recently purchased a 2006 Z4 M for significantly reduced price as compared to new. Gotta love the power of depreciation and love the rev happy S54 engine!
The S54 is a powerhouse. Torqy and rev happy. The Z4 M concept works very well. Seriously built, seriously entertaining.
F355 would be interesting for further reference
Thanks for the suggestion
They are asking prices indeed. It would be better to use selling prices but they are not available anywhere. Also, using selling prices would mean that the market would shift along the price axis. All the relative rates would therefore remain more or less te same.
I saw a 2006 F430 for sale with 18 K miles for $80,000. Good deal no?
It’s a manual as well
I would buy it
Can you videos on appreciating cars! 😀
Not a bad idea 😅
Manual F430 or Manual Gallardo as the best investment?
Good idea
Cars need to be driven. Daily and hard. To hell with mileages. Drive the car as the designer wanted you to do
can you do an analysis of 981 Boxster Spyder?
Good suggestion. It is one the to do list.
I drove a F430 in Maranello that had 242,000 km. I wouldn't be worried about a car with 50,000 miles. They can last and they are amazing to drive. It feels like driving with a dragon over your shoulder. Great content, as usual!
ftboomer1 Its not just the mileage its the condition of the car that people worried about. Ferraris with 50k miles tend to present themselves with beat up conditions, below average paint condition and nasty interiors such as beat up side bolsters, leather shrinkage, and sticky buttons. People in the USA just don’t look after their cars
@@fijod This is always the case. The buyer of a concourse car and a canyon slayer are usually different.
When I start my 430 I can care less about what it's worth that's not why we buy these cars except for the value to our ears! If you're in it for depreciation values you're not a true Ferrari lover. I'll take my F430 F1 normally aspirated V8 exhaust sound over any late model turbo "fake" tuned Ferrari although beautiful & amazing performance cars in their own category.
430 spyder is much higher because you get to enjoy the amazing sweet sound of 430, with stock exhaust , which is unique and imho superior to 360 and 458.
Absolutely incredible analysis. Thank you for doing this sir!!
Thanks. Which car would you like to see analysed next?
I OWN 2006 430 SPIDER WITH HARMMAN KIT AND TUBI EXSHUST UNTIL TODAY NO PROBLEUM AT ALL.HOW MUCH IS THE VALUE NOW,MILEAGE 24,000KM
I generally do not think that looking at price versus model year is the best way to analyze the depreciation. The milage method is a little better. But the better way would have been to see what one madel year had been worth through the years. For example ... a plot of the cost history of ONLY a 2007 F430 through the years (2007 till now 2020). That is the true depreciation of that car !!!. Looking at the cost of the car versus the model year at almost 15 years later is not of much value. They are ALL similarly priced with a gap of only about 30k from oldest to newest. Whereas if you looked at the cost of the 2007 car IN 2007 it had an average MSRP sticker price of about $175000. Adjust that considering inflation of 25% since 2007 ... that MSRP is equal to about $218000. Then you need to do research to see what the car sold for in the succeeding next 13 years and account for inflation from each of those years till now !!!. With just the 2 points I mentioned you can see that the car depreciated from $218,000 to about $100,000 in 13 years. That's about $9000 a year !!!! Which would indicate that next year the car would be worth $91,000, but thats just not true !! SOooo in order to predict the future depreciation, you need to know the shape of the curve (in between 2007 and 2020) and to do that you need all the average prices of the 2007 F430 from 2007 till now or at least in the last 5 years !!! The average price of a 2007 F430 last year was about the same as this year so it really has flattened out quite a bit. So my depreciation prediction is that its close to a bottom. But without doing all the work I mentioned (or at least for the last 5 years) you cant really give a more exact prediction.
Hi, i agree with you that it is better to look at the value of a model year over time. However, as far as i'm aware, this data is not available. The method which use acts as a proxy and it works the best for newer cars. After all, for those you can see the full curve and model year is key for the value. The older the car, in general, the higher the importance of the mileage. To get a full sense of the 430s depreciation curve, it is possible to include the 360, 458, and 488. I just did this for a new video and the curves line up almost excactly. Hence, i believe that it gives a good approximation of the 430 values. Nevertheless, what this method will never capture are shifts in the full market. If all the 430s will for example increase with 10%, that wouldn't be visible.
I thought this was an expert analysis? But yet you did not know that like the 360 the F430 also came with a manual transmission.
There is a pop-up in the video stating that there was in an error in the video regarding the F430. Only the automatics were included. The 360 market is split by manual and automatic.
Great video! Unfortunately, contrary to the data in the video the 430 did have a 3 pedal full manual gearbox option and the F1 paddle shift option. Huge price difference between the two. I think this throws much of the depreciation values off and explains why the curve is not as you expected.
FYI. The 430 used the exact same gearbox in the stick shift and paddle shift cars. Only difference was the F1 paddle gearbox used a hydraulic pump and computer to shift while controlling throttle input when requested by a paddle click.
This holds true for the 360 as well but the 430 F1 shifts much better than the 360.
You are right. There are some manuals indeed, they are just very rare. That's a mistake from my side. All the cars in the data are however automatics. I inserted a note in the video where the error occurs. Thanks for pointing it out.
In the depriciation curve you should be looking at a price of a single model year as a function of price in a certain time (2017, 2018, 2019...) and not price of different model years in the same year (2020)
Im afraid that the data you describe is not readily available. As such, i think that this approach serves as a good proxy. Especially for the newer cars.
100% agree. I would go as far as to say that for a car of this age, the depreciation methodology used in this video has close to zero value. A car may be appreciating in value, but this video’s methodology would suggest its depreciating, just because newer model years are more expensive relative to older. The sample size is also too small with too few variables controlled for.
@@nicktimpson exactly. Because the newer models are also appreciating along with the older ones
@@nicktimpson True, the older the car the less good this approach works.
This analysis is fundamentally flawed.
The price of 430 is steady or rising. Ie no depreciation.
Newer 430 are however worth more and will do for several more years.
See here an updated version: th-cam.com/video/4laJNUjdSJw/w-d-xo.html
you say the 430 did not come in MANUAL? I have one . check your self...
There is a note in the video popping up that this is imdeed an error.
low or mid mileage f430 do not exist
I suggest the 458 Italia! Interesting to see if we can expect it to go below €100k.
There is already an old video of the 458 on my channel. It could use an update though ;)
This comment didn't age well...they are pricey now the 458
Lamborghini murcielargo?
Wonderful video. Can you do an analysis on a f80 BMW M3 ?
After you own a F430 and realize the maintenance is fair, the joy of seeing the most beautiful Ferrari in your garage, seeing it again and again and thinking you made it, you goal and trophy is Ferarri Red, hearing the noise and the pleasure of driving it, the depreciation rate becomes irrelevant, you know that the F430 was the smartest purchase in your life. Specially if you are a Ferrari enthusiast!
I put a comment but it seems not uploaded.... I put it again. How did you get so many information in order to make this analysis (Prices per version, miles, private owner versus dealers,...etc...etc) ? I tried to do the same but all is manual!. Thanks for your return:)
Love your channel, between a 2007 430 and 2011 911 TurboS coupe (w/30KM) which is the better investment? Driven an average 0f 1500 miles per year.
The F430 also came with a manual 🤓
You are right, this is an error in the video. I included a pop up at the point of the error. The data however only contains automatics.
Hi, I own both a Ferrari California T and a 599. The video was spot on for the Cali T, could you do the 599 please? I think that this car is a future classic, what do you think? Pls exclude the GTO
A commercial every two minutes is annoying. This may be keeping your subs down.
You Talk a Little too fast in this Video 😅 Im still processing what you Said but you are already at the next graph
Fiat coupe 20 v turbo
Like these Videos so much!! So interesting! I think best buy would be a MANUAL F430 Coupe.
Keep going! 👍🏻🙋🏻♂️
When would you say is the safest bet they’re gonna finish deprecating? 2022 possibly?
Do Lamborghini Gallardo; I picked one up last year and thought it was a good deal, would be interesting to see what your analysis says!
2002 Dodge Viper GTS Final Edition - only 360 were made.
Great video! What about the McLaren 676LT?
There is some McLaren content coming up soon,
A few gated 6 speed F430's recently sold for around $250K each.
F355, would like to see a review of something that maybe climbing in value?
Hi there,
Awesome videos, I would love a g63 value curve video
Thanks
We need a corona virus edition.
Ferrari 348?
You were surpriced by the (steep) value drop of the F430. Take any McLaren and you will see it is shocking.
Take any model and it can be the worst value for money you have ever seen.
impressive analyse though, take a english course please, can help bumb up the views
I have several videos on Mclarens, especially the rate on the 720S is horrible.
Great video series! I’d love to see an analysis of the Porsche 993 particularly the C4S model. Keep up the great work!
I so appreciate your work - well done!!! Request, would you create a sorted list of the cars you have analyzed with a link to the TH-cam video - keeping this up-to-date and making it a part of your "more" information will greatly enhance our ability to enjoy your work - thanks!!! PS: I have a 2016 Corvette Z06 - I'm unsure if your have analyzed this specific model of Corvettes.
Thanks. I have playlists sorted by brand on the channel's main page; th-cam.com/channels/vuqaQ4IyACFWmR0E-aBouQ.html?view_as=subscriber . Those might be useful as a reference.
Given the comments, it would be very interesting to see the difference in F430 prices from F1 to Manual gear shift and the likelihood of depreciation, if any, for the Manual Cars. Might explain your high depreciation value for the F1 cars c.f. others.
True, i will see if i can find enough manuals for sale to make an analysis.
But the cost of the clutch service seem to stay stable
Nice analysis. I'd be interested in Maserati Granturismo especially since they've had such a long run
Thanks, good suggestions. They also came down a lot in price.
Boring with charts and numbers only. Should add some photos and videos.
They are unfortunately not always available for the older cars. The videos about the newer cars (GT3, R8 , 570S etc) include footage of the car.
Coupe and/or Spyder that’s the question ! I have the same question for the i8 coupe or Roadster!?
The video shows a split between the coupe and the spider in terms of depreciation. Are you looking for something more specific?
The 430 *DOES* come with a 6-speed gated manual.
Yes there is a note in the video popping up saying that it is an error.
2011 Panamera 4 depreciation
How about any and all Lotus products.
There is a video about the Elise on the channel.
@@fourwheeltrader Is it possible to put them on the leader board? Some are selling near I8 numbers.
Please do a video on California!
Ugly car that Ferrari will drop like rock
He doesn't do videos on bicycles.