Linear Trend Forecasting

COMM 225: PRODUCTION & OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
CHAPTER 3: DEMAND FORECASTING
📈 Linear trend forecasting can be used to analyze data with an upward or downward trend.
📊 It is important to have at least four or five data points to make sense of the trend.
📉 Excel can be used to create a scatter or line chart to visualize the trend and generate an equation for forecasting.
📝 The linear trend equation is yhat = a + bx, where "a" is the y intercept and "b" is the slope of "x" and "x" is the period being forecasted.
📝 The slope "b" can be calculated using the equation: b = (nΣ(xy) - ΣxΣy) / (nΣ(x^2) - (Σx)^2)
📝 The y intercept "a" can be calculated using the equation: a = (Σy - bΣx) / n

[@oliviaahuang4069]

Thank u soooooo muchhhhh! Explained wayyyyyy better than my professor!!!!!!!!!!

[@drumd00d]

This helped me a lot and wasn't as difficult in Excel as the formula looks. Thank you!

[@jenniferobrien8603]

To find these equations MUCH faster simply use for b =SLOPE and a =INTERCEPT functions in Excel. This will save you about 9 mins of this video!

[@mocanada304]

I agree with you. However, my objective was to show students how to perform the calculations even with a paper and pen. Not just excel.

[@mocanada304]

=INTERCEPT(B:B,A:A)+SLOPE(B:B,A:A)*E1
E1 is the period for which you want the forecast.
This would automate the calculation and is useful for those who want to use it in excel.
Thank you @Jennifer!

[@Tlu31]

Good on you! you described that in perfection. it was very practical. Thanks for that

[@ristaristiana6651]

Thank you😀

[@heatherpuckett1454]

Thanks so much. So helpful!

[@mocanada304]

Glad it was helpful!

[@cameroncheek7414]

Great video!

[@kylejackson3171]

These are great! Plz make more

[@mocanada304]

I have made a few more. You can check them on my channel.

[@gennesiededios9761]

Thank You

[@IAKhan-km4ph]

very nice. You are a good teacher.
Plz guide me seasonal trend/data as well.

[@EarthTalses]

thank you sir.

[@mocanada304]

You are welcome!

[@kenzaelaissi65]

thank you

[@zalkari]

Cool

[@karenclairepayabyab9281]

Is it possible to have a Mean Absolute Deviation in linear regression? If it is, what's the formula in it? thank you in advance!

[@TheBladimir23]

Can you post a video for a Non linear Trend?

[@mocanada304]

I believe I have already posted them. Naive, Waited average, Exponential smoothing, etc.

[@minee111]

waht if we get the Y negative?
can we continue using this linear method?? or we cant?

[@mocanada304]

You forecast sales not revenue. So your sales cannot be less than zero.

[@zachnerves1622]

Hello sir! The topic given to us is "Linear trend with horizon", what does this mean?

[@zachnerves1622]

I already know how to perform the Linear trend part but I clearly have no idea what horizon is.