The collapse of the Golf Stream would mean "only" a 6-8 Celsius degrees drop in average winter temperatures in England which is quite a lot but minus 40 degrees could appear (if they would appear at all) only as some extreme record even then and winters would just become more frosty and snowy (in general) than today. And that would not mean the collapse of agriculture although it would have to be changed quite substantially among more demanding circumstances.
In my native country, România, we had winters like in the south of Canada about 55 years ago. It was a lot of fun to build fortresses with snow walls, or snowmen, when I was a little kid. In the last 15...20 years the climate has turned weird. At this very moment, November 28, 2024, more than three quarters of the leaves are still on trees in Bucharest, and many still have a greenish appearance.
I think we have had two very long and cold winters in Europe before this year though, and this year we've had a milder fall and maybe a shorter winter coming. It just seems like natural variance to me
that actually mirrors my experience in southern ontario canada. used to toboggan every new years, quebec skiing would open for american thanksgiving. Last winter was almost no snow, this year it still has'nt gotten below freezing.
Why is Europe always compared to the eastern US? If you compare it to the West coast of the US you will get pretty much the same temperatures. There are Palm trees in Vancouver Canada at nearly 50° North, but none at Newfoundland. The East and the West coasts are very very different.
AI reply: The West Coast, however, is influenced by the cold California Current, resulting in cooler temperatures. Continental vs. Maritime Climates: Both Eastern North America and Europe experience more of a continental climate with distinct seasons, while the West Coast has a more moderate maritime climate due to the Pacific Ocean's influence. Why the West Coast is different: Mountain Ranges: The presence of major mountain ranges like the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada creates a rain shadow effect, leading to drier conditions in many parts of the West Coast. This is a significant difference compared to Europe. Ocean Currents: As mentioned earlier, the cold California Current has a major impact on West Coast temperatures. Your Examples: You're spot on about the palm trees in Vancouver! This highlights the microclimates created by the Pacific Ocean and the mountain ranges. Newfoundland, despite being at a similar latitude to Vancouver, experiences much colder temperatures due to the Labrador Current and lack of a significant rain shadow effect. In conclusion: While comparisons between Europe and the Eastern US are common due to historical and latitudinal similarities, it's crucial to recognize the significant climate variations within both continents. The West Coast of North America presents a different climate model altogether, influenced by unique factors like ocean currents and mountain ranges.
@@astoni314 Very true! Additionally the East and West coast get influenced by the westerlies in different ways. Allthough the pacific ocean is cooler than the atlantic, its enough to moderate the climate there by winds form the ocean. The East coast gets the wind from the continent, which hosts very cool air masses. (Speaking of Winter) In Europe the lack of a significant Mountain range fades the mild oceanic climate to the West in a Continental climate to the East. You can draw a line approximately through the middle of Germany where the Continental climate begins. Even if the gulf stream collapses, Western Europe will not get the climate of the eastern US, the westerly Winds will always bring mild ocean air onto land, exept the jet stream wiggles and we get a „Beast from the East“.
@@astoni314the milder, purely oceanic climate that you mention in the Pacific Northwest can be found in between Galicia Spain all the way to Brittany, France, west coasts of uk/Ireland, and southeastern Norway. And their winter/summer temperature ranges are very similar to the pacific northwest
Becasue it don´t fit the naritive. Finland, Batlic states and Poland have basically no impact of the Atlantic currents. They still survive perfectly well. The reason for this is that the Baltic have brackish water.. and..well also the Baltic is huge (about twice the size and area as all the great lakes combined) Ukraine also have basically zero impact of the Atlantic currents. Granted ukraine is quite far south, but the very southern part of ukraine specially Krim (now under Russian control) is dry and hot, being 45 degrees north, that is similar to the Dakotas with fairly similar climate, but a bit milder winters due to the coastal effect of the black sea. Really the whole reason why europe have mild winters and milds summers is coastal effect, and more so coastal effect of salt or brackish water. Always speak about how mild the winters are. Winter have zero effect on agriculture. If its -30 or -3 degrees don´t matter. Summer temperature effect way more, and how early the spring is. What most Americans don´t understand is that in mid Sweden, say just a tad north of Stockholm where the northern most normal agriculture is (there is ranches a quite a bit more north), the growing season is like 3-4 month long. You plant seeds in mid may, and harvest them in mid august. In southern Sweden you may be able to saw in mid April and harvest as late as early September. Its not very warm so it don´t grow that fast. The question is of cause how its even possible to grew anything at all when the season is that short. Well the reason is that the sun sets at 11PM and raises 2AM and the ground is soaked with water pretty much year around. This is also true for southern Finland and Estonia, and to a degree also western Russia. If we go to Siberia, the reason why agriculture don´t work well there have nothing to do with that its cold. It is cold, in the winter. But its plenty warm in the summer. The issue with Siberia is that they have very dry summer. This is very obvious when you go a bit south like Kazakstan and Mongolia that is basically desert environment. While Siberia does get warm in summer, it never get as hot as it would need to become a desert.
Talking to a friend online who lives in Belgium while I was experiencing a small snow storm in Toronto. Sent him a picture where upon he told me it was because we were so much further north in Canada. He was shocked to learn that he was in fact 800 kilometers further north. Toronto is at the same latitude as Florence, Italy.
we cant stop it.. there is natural climate change.. do you want global cooling? an ice age would be far more devastating then global warming... we have more greenery today then ever in history if you do the research you would know... we have like 130 years of climate data compared to the earth thats notthing.. a blink in time.
Unfortunately, we are most likely just going to have to deal with the consequences of climate change because we have an oil based economy with no efficient alternatives. Nuclear would help some so France is headed in the right direction.
There was once a time, 30 years ago or longer, where winters in the EU were as harsh as those in Canada. But things changed and nowadays in my country we get like 5cm of snow for 3-6 days in the ENTIRE winter season.
30 years ago, we got -10 or -15°C for 2 or 3 weeks where I live in Belgium, now we don't even get -5°C for a couple of days. But we're far from getting -25°c/-30°c or less that they get in Canada
We had a couple of winters here in France where temps dropped as low as -20°C in some places, but they were exceptions and these cold spells didn't last long. I kind of remember 1985 and 1995 (not sure for the 2nd one, but I think it was).
I live in Poland and it seems like what is happening is exactly the opposite vs what was presented here. You say that these currents weaken year by year so it can lead to harsh winters. We used to have proper winters until 20 years ago and regular rain and snow throughout the year. Now we have mild winters without snow and droughts in the spring/summer. The key impact of these currents is the humidity that it brings, it turns into rain or snow, depending on the season. If we don't have e enough rain in the spring or summer, we have drought, if we dont have snow in the winter, we have mild winters. Snow is an isolator, without it we cannot have proper winter. It isolates the air from the heat of the ground leading to further temperature drop as the air can cool down. It then supports snow to accumulate on the ground and stay for a longer period of time.
a) This isn't happening now, it looks like it could happen in the future. Right now it's getting warmer. If it does, it will keep getting warmer for a bit and then start getting colder again. a) But anyway I think Poland is too far from the Atlantic for this to affect it much directly. Though you might end up feeding Britain and Spain / taking in our refugees when we stop being able to farm.
The global climate is growing hotter at an alarming rate, which leads to the heat you observe. This also causes glaciers on Greenland to melt at a more accelerated force, which in turn lowers the temperature of the ocean in that area. Once there was enough of this water increase, the amoc will grow weaker until it's gone, and we are seeing this exact process happening now. These processes are causing each other, but the effects of each step takes a while to build up. We have had years of hot weather, which led to years of massive melting, which now leads to interference with the amoc. You are also observing weather, not climate and especially not deep sea currents and salinity. These climate interference are very complicated and to get a proper understanding of how they affect each other and what factors into them, as well as how they affect weather now and how this will change in the future, you will need to look into extensive research into climate science. But the short version of the sequence we can currently observe and predict is as follows: More CO2 / methane -> hotter climate -> hotter weather in Poland and hotter weather in Greenland -> more melting -> lower salinity in North Atlantic -> slowing down of amoc while the climate in general is still heating up -> amoc collapse and freezing of Europe while the rest of the world is getting hotter still
Climate change shouldn`t be noticable in a life-span (unless it`s caused by a meteor or a massive volcanic eruption). The fact that IT IS, is bad news.......
If you walk around museums in Netherlands you will see many pictures about people skating on the ice of Amsterdam channels - apparently this was quite popular also after heavy drinking and quite a few people died after ice broke sometimes. Nowadays nobody remembers the last time Amsterdam channels have frozen. There were centuries in relatively recent history of Europe, when the temperatures were significantly lower. And still Europe flourished.
Incorrect, a few year ago people were iceskating on the canals in Amsterdam. Some places were weaker than others, but deffo within the last 5/10 years. - Though I do agree, it happens more rarely. ;)
@@Bartkonig You are right, it was probably in 2018. But yes, this does not change my point - there were times when the climate in Europe was consistently colder. Yet, people adapted.
@@zzip0 Sorry but you cant adapt to -30C, we need to stop this now, and let me remind you that this is not the only thing also air pollution killing nature STB...
The Kuroshiro Current is similar to the Gulf stream, flowing north from the Philippines, past Japan, to Alaska, and then down the west coast of the US. The weather in Sitka AK is quite similar to the weather in Aberdeen Scotland, at about the same latitude.
And Vancouver, Seattle and Portland are significantly warmer (and less icy) than their in land counterparts. Seattle, for example, is further north than Minneapolis, but Seattle doesn't experience the level of winter weather that Minneapolis does.
@@steinbockguy Yes. Cities far from the ocean are usually the coldest. For example, Fairbanks, Calgary, Winnipeg, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Moscow, Kiev, Warsaw, and Siberia.
@ exactly but let’s also keep in mind that Seattle and Portland are both at a minimum 120 miles from the coast or approximately 190 km but you are absolutely right compared to continental cities they are almost coastal.
@@charleswillcock3235 you seemed to skp the fact on food supplies and the strain on energy systems.. feels like you're a climate change doubter which is funny
Having lived in Scotland for many years I was unimpressed by Iceland's version of cold. Not significantly different from Scotland. As ever it's wind chill that's the real issue not so much ambient temperature.
@@kalliste23 in Wales we have damp and windy, but not as cold as Scotland. When discussing the changes to the UK from AMOC changes, I always look at our cyclical severe winters like 1947, 1963 (which I lived through), and our decreasing capacity in society to actually deal with them .
Except that so far, this is NOT what’s been happening. He says that Northern Europe is the only part of the world that’s been getting cooler, when in fact it’s one of the places warming the fastest. So, we should be mindful that climate is very complicated and there are undoubtedly many things about it that we don’t understand yet. The Gulf Stream and AMOC are apparently not the only major factors to consider now.
Actually they're modal verbs, but you're right - he should be saying 'will' since there is already compelling physical evidence the process has already started.
Except 50 years ago PBS showed actual science... Back then when I was a child They claimed we were all going to freeze to death in the up and coming ice age. 50 years later that did not happen.
Yes Im still freaking out 50 years later when nothing has happened almost like with the so-called Great Barrier Reef catastrophe. You know the one that today is at is largest since they started to measure it.
I really cannot take a video seriously that tries to talk about a very, very serious subject but then fks up his stock footage when showing "greenhouse gases" like come on, do your due diligence for crying out loud... 🙄🤦🏻🤦🏻
I second that. Plus: no gold fish 'spawning' in Europe in the wild ANYWHERE; the Gulf Stream CANNOT collapse (it is driven by the Coriolis forces drag); and I lose count of the inaccuracies.
I have been sportsfishing and mushroom picking for 35 years in Denmark and trust me it's getting strange. We now find a lot of mushrooms that before was only found 1000 km more south. And warm water fish have become much more ordinary and cold water species have almost disappeared. But due to our very old history and culture we have fishing data dating back 400 years forexample sea bass I now common, bus much less than it was in year 1700-1800. But when I was a child there was none caught, they dissapered total in year 1900-1999. Now we have 500kg tuna jumping in Kattegat as in up untill the 1940. We now used to have a lot of grayling but now it's too hot and they are almost extinct. Vikings grew wheat and potatoes in greenland but they the vikings died off likely due to cold weather. Also the filmbuhl winter was a very cold period in the Viking Age. Like 10% of denmark are old sand dunes covering old farming soil where our oldest Churches are, and we don really know how these dunes was created. Likely the ocean sank several meters during filmbuhl vinter and our beaches got kilometer wide and blew inland
So - it's getting warmer? It's not here in central France, where, like Florida, temperatures are more or less stable. Interesting, but nowhere near the 2010 prophecies which claimed SE England would be flooded by sea level rise, yet otherwise in permanent drought by 2020 (This 'documentary' was fronted by Sir David Attenborough no less.) Since then of course, rainfall in England and sea levels have remained stable, and the Thames continues to flow.
What about all the spraying off the earth I watched a really good program about our bees & less flies this might not come into a factor off most people but having no bees means no pollination & flies removing the death cleanup
Nice summary, the only imprecision is that Northern Europe is not cooling now. The cooling concerns an area over the Northern Atlantic, Europe is very well warming everywhere, for now.
Stay where you are. It's a scam, if you haven't noticed yet...I mean, you are welcome in unwelcoming Germany, but you'd have to pay 5 times more for your electricity...😅
The AMOC may slow down and may observe a tipping point, "collapsing". However, the Gulf stream is a surface stream caused by the earth rotation and won't collapse. Indeed, the AMOC pushes it up further north which would no longer happen, thus it would definitely have an effect on Scandinavia, Ireland and the UK. However, the weather in continental Europe generally speaking would more likely resemble the US and Canadian West Coast than the East coast - again, caused by earth rotation, although there is no such "cold blob" in the Pacific. This could nonetheless be troublesome, but destinclty from those outlined in the video. See an expert talking about the AMOC here: th-cam.com/video/mm_YZ2juQL4/w-d-xo.html It appears the biggest risk of the the AMOC disrupting isn't even the climate effects on continental Europe, but the world-wide effect on climate zones as the AMOC is part of a global system, not limited to the North-Atlantic, and even the effect on (West)Antarctica and its glaciers could be severe - all effects that take thousands of years to reverse once tipping points are reached.
Unless the Earth stops rotating on an axis then ocean currents will continue, as will wind. If the Earth stops spinning, we will have more serious and immediate problems to deal with. (If it stopped spinning suddenly then we wont worry for long)
As someone who has been living in the middle belt of Russia for the past 38 years, I have observed that our climate here has become warmer and milder in general, over the past decades. Winters are becoming less snowy, more warm. In the Arctic part of Russia, the Arctic Ocean ice coverage is becoming less dense, less regular, and as a result, the Northern Sea Route is becoming easier and easier to traverse.
Only the AMOC will collapse i don't really know how to explain but I saw a video that the gulf stream wouldn't because it's mainly dictated by the Earth's rotation which isn't stopping any time soon
The day after tomorrow is entertainment, nothing more. When the AMOC really should collapse (what I don't beleive), the global warming will be stronger than the cooling, also in Europe.
@@MooseOsauras wrong if or when amoc slows or stop completely, then it's based on amound of ice is melted in greenland. amoc is based on sweet and sault water system sweet is transporting cold via ocean floor to the south and warmth above back to the north warmed up on equator of the earth
Northwestern Europe will never have a climate similar to the US East Coast. Even without the Gulf Stream we would still have a maritime climate, which moderates summer and winter temperatures. A colder Atlantic probably means slightly harsher winters and less precipitation, which I would very much welcome.
it doesn't matter what you prefer or welcome, our societies didn't and won't be able to adapt to these quick changes, that's the main problem with climate change
Whether Southern Europe would become drier if Golf Stream collapsed is an open question. Because the Canary Current would, supposedly, also disappear then, and that mkaes the Iberian Peninsula and Moroc drier. So its disappearance could lead to more precipitation in the Western half of the Meditarrenian and in the Sahara.
Fascinating🙏 Thank you! The Bronze Age Collapse would be an interesting video-super connected societies, megalithic architecture, wealth, art-it collapsed (one reason being climate change) and the Greeks even forgot how to read and write. We can learn so much from studying our history📚
Not sure that's true, during the middle ages Hadrian's wall (the border between England and Scotland) was used to grow grapes. Not sure how warm it has to to grow grapes but I'm guessing pretty warmer than it is now?
@joelewis9960 I have seen pictures of snow plows in the uk. Does the UK have snow plows now? Here in Canada we grow grapes and it snows. Just because it was colder, doesn't mean grapes didn't grow.
@@yuriklaver4639 In southern Sweden where I live it used to be Mediterranean-like climate and people used to farm on terraces on hills facing north.. It's a really cool place, beautiful too! It's also a nature reserve now so the natural beauty is off the charts!!
Freezing cold yes - but only as in a bit below freezing...most of Britain doesn't experience what most of the developed world would consider a 'severe' winter, in fact both science and the personal experience of anyone you care to talk to will inform you that Britain's already mild winters have become more so in recent decades (with the notable exceptions of 2010/2011 when we had unusually low temperatures for a few weeks). The pole shifts this way and that a little bit, it isn't an event of great significance.
@@danyoutube7491 if you look at *just* temperature, yes. There's much more going on though, it's not like America where 50% humidity is considered extremely humid, whilst here it's always at 100%, which greatly exaggerates the effects since that humidity condensates on clothes, skin, etc. I read somewhere (and can vouch from experience of going to eastern Europe mid winter every year) that -2 here feels very similar to -20 in most of America and Canada Not to mention the frequent storms.
I live in Las Vegas and it was crazy here this summer. The last half of the season, the sun was so intense that almost all of the plants in our landscaping including cactus, various bushes and trees and even the palm trees had the same side of their foliage burned to a crisp from being baked in the sun during peak hours every day over the course of a few weeks. I can’t imagine it being even worse next year, -shit’s going to catch fire. 👀 We drained our pool for now bc the water level was evaporating so rapidly it drove the water bill up keeping it at levels the system would still be able to function not to mention you couldn’t be out in the water enjoying yourself without becoming drenched in sweat even in the shade. So yeah.. can’t even imagine how it’s going to progress. Bummer :/
@@valeking5993 in South Africa they use a sun blocking shade cloth over veg patches and car parks. It may not be pretty, and I dont know the size of your garden, but it may be worth looking at putting up a large frame and at least covering the back area over the pool. The shade cloth comes in various degrees of protection from about 50% up to 90% I believe. The difference is amazing. Even using it as a car port outside your garage to protect the paint.
In Ireland our weather is becoming milder in the summer and warmer in the winter. The only bad weather that causes issues is the wind and rain. If anything our weather is becoming less extreme. Except for the occasional fiercer storm.
An outdoor pool in Las Vegas is deranged anyway. Having outdoor pools in the effing desert is a REALLY good idea. Only Americans can have ideas as foolish as these. The have got to learn a lot.
As someone living in Europe, I haven't seen winters getting colder despite the Gulf stream apparently being at its weakest. As a kid I used to be able to go out and play in the snow and now it's rare to even have a day of snowfall in winter, let alone having snow on the ground
Ireland is further North than New York and thanks to the Gulfstream we do not the extremes in heat and cold that New York suffers from. We get mild weather and rain all year around :)
Yes its been around for a long time and guess what? Like all the other fear-mongering attempts this one has never come true either or like the Swedish experts said this year to Swedish mainstream media "Stop telling that the Gulf Stream is slowing down because it aint true" The Gulf Stream seems even more resilient than we ever thought was their words. (The Article can be found in SVT news from February 2024) How refreshing when some scientists tell us how it really is.
@@danyoutube7491 in movie the day after tomorrow, this issue is explained but changes happens very fast, it's possible that can happen that fast. but can also taking decades to happen this changes.
I started fishing the western wall of the Gulfstream, around 25 degrees north latitude in 1981. Been distance swimming same since late nineties. The past four years the change (absence) of the current I loved so much has been dramatic. It is so obvious to me. I feel so sad. Ten, twenty years ago, the days when the Stream was replaced by green water from the Keys were the exception. Now, seeing a weak eddy of Gulf Stream water mixing with the Keys water are a rare exception. I know the water(s) very well. Swimming a mile a day for decades can do that. No one believes me. No one cares. But I KNOW it isn't right. The collapse has already begun.
@@SidW-l4z Wish they would be clear about what they mean by tipping point. It means warming will start feeding itself. At that stage it will mean there's nothing we can do.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front. It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient. It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front. It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient. It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
30 years ago, max temperatures in Serbia during the summer were between 30C and 33C. Now, we are barely below 40C in July and Avgust, 30-35c in Jun and September. In North Macedonia and Greece it is even worse. It was 40-43C in the south part of Macedonia this year, so it's almost impossible to breathe.
Currently Southern Europe has been suffering from excessive heat and drought in recent years. Not just in summer with record temperatures and extended drought conditions but also in winter where rainfall has been concentrated in short, excessive bursts which has caused flooding and swept away top soil rather than spread over the winter months. So, cooler conditions caused by the slowdown in the AMOC and Gulfstream MAY actually help to mitigate global warming in more southern parts of Europe by reducing the extreme rainfall events and lowering winter temperatures to more temperate levels. Remember Southern Europe is on roughly the same latitude as the midwest farming states and they manage okay with quite pronounced seasonal temperature differences. It will mean less tomatoes and crops more typical of Northern Europe. Additionally, this could move rainfall south to the desert regions of North Africa making those areas greener as has happened in the past. Finally, the UK and Northern Europe are amongsts the most advanced areas when it comes to renewable energy given the very windy conditions that exist in the UK, Denmark, North Sea etc. Solar power is very low due to latitude but also due to the amount of cloud and rain. If the climate changes to drier conditions there will be opportunities for warmer weather crops in summer and also for greater solar power generation and possibly also more wind generation in central Europe which currently tends to be quite calm. Germany, Czech Republic, Austria etc.may find their climate becoming windier, more akin to Northern Europe. Which is a long winded way of saying that the slowing AMOC may change the European climate but that may just shift things around and the bad stuff may be counterbalanced by positive changes and different solutions.
No, not good for southern Europe, because you'll have drier weather as well, which is a major cause of your problems. Moreover, even if we could confidently say it would make southern Europe like the American midwest, they don't cope well at all - they are sucking up ancient ground water to irrigate crops. Climate change isn't going to give us more consistency, and weather it gets colder or hotter that won't let us benefit from warmer climate crops because we still get the same amount of sunlight and lack enough during the winter (plus the increased frequency & severity of storms and weird weather is always bad for agriculture).
@@danyoutube7491 Where I live in Scotland it rains on 200 days per year. In many areas further into the mountains it can be 250 days per year and as much as three metres of rainfall per year. Though naturally this is often part of the day or during night time, there are usually significant periods of cloudy weather around the rain days plus significant cloud cover through much of the summer. This is also true in other western parts of the UK. If the changes predicted occur I think many parts of the UK and Northern Europe could get a lot more sunlight simply because the colder weather would reduce the mild and very wet south westerlies which cause so much of our weather. It is usually a considerable improvement from the seemingly endless winter gloom when we get our weather from a more northerly direction (even the north west). In addition, if the energy/warmth from these ocean currents in the Atlantic stops travelling to the North East Atlantic area surely it still has to go somewhere ? Wouldn't the most likely movement be a less northerly track across to Southern Europe and North Africa which will make these areas cloudier and wetter ? After all it is this energy which currently makes the UK and coastal areas of Northern Europe so cloudy and wet. The difference between Southern Europe and my earlier comparison with the midwest US states is that the US states are predominantly landlocked, continental climate and Southern Europe is mostly surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea with the Atlantic ocean to the east in the direction of the prevailing winds. Some areas like the Iberian peninsula and Italy are mostly surrounded by water. I don't see why they wouldn't become wetter if the prevailing weather systems that currently travel across the Atlantic in a north east direction travelled on a more southerly track.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front. It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient. It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front. It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient. It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
This is a scare story about things you cannot see. To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC." Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation. Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2. MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021) The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv. "Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years. There is no climate crisis. The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations. The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really? These models can't even model one of the key physical processes, Convection, in ocean currents "because convection is a small-scale process, it is not captured well in most current models (Jackson et al (2023)". Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two. Also the 'Cold Blob' has disappeared from North Atlantic surface temperatures, when annual anomalies for 2013-2023 are compared to the average for the period 1979-2010 (ECMWF ERA5). The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) shows a Sea Surface Temperature departure of over +2°C exactly where the Cold Blob used to be. It may have been there but it's gone. Looking more carefully using NOAA ERSST V5 data for North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (50N-65N, 50W-10W) shows in 1942 a +1°C anomaly declining to -0.7°C in 1992 then rising almost by +1°C in 2010, declining again to -0.6°C in 2010, and of course rising again to +0.75°C in 2023. There are also oscillations in the data back to the 1850s, but there is no trend overall up or down, and no correlation to CO2. The same is true for the heat content in the North Atlantic down to 1000m (Met Office data). No correlation to CO2, just a natural variability. That's the data. The Cold Blob is an artefact. The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
I tu powtarza fakt że wysokie CO2 jest ściemniane społeczeństwa kłamstwami Al Gore pytany od kogo takie dane o wzroście stężenia CO2 Od jednego naukowca raczej pseudo naukowiec Tu chodzi o kasę i zawyżanie kosztów życia reszta to zombie naukowców który łykają kłamstwa powielane 1000 razy stają prawda Nigdy nie uwierzyłem ich kłamstw
That is the same Lead Scientist that stated 1'c Temperature rise by 2100. I am sure he was on the team that said SLR of max 300 mm by 2100. Ignorance is wonderful if you wish to remain blind and live in the dark. Are we at 1.5'c yet ? Even though 2024 was 1.6'c. ?
Yes, we’ll rebuild the entirety of modern agriculture in a region that doesn’t have the carrying capacity, excellent. And all of that hardy soil, I’m sure 20 years is enough time to make a desert into the agricultural heartland of the world.
@ aside from greenhouses in a cold weather climate for basic needs, what other alternatives are available to feed vast populations. The desert may or may not accommodate agriculture if rainwater is sporadic. There will be rain it has to go somewhere.
It should be noted that this topic is hotly debated by climate scientists and we don't know for sure if it's actually collapsing, and what rate it's collapsing at. It could even take hundreds of years (as estimated in tons of studies)
I just installed a mini split in my garage shop. It's really hot here in summer, Southeast Texas, and it seems to be getting a tiny bit hotter each year. So I did something about it. It cost a lot but we can't value only money. My unit is a heat pump with a pretty good SEER. So I'm doing my part.
I live in Arizona and don't use A/C at all during the summer or heat during the winter. I've adapted my comfort range from 40 degrees to 96 degrees. I also ride a bicycle if errands are within 5 miles in town, and electric bicycle for up to 15 miles in town. For long distance trips I drive a micro engine car that averages 50mpg or take Amtrak. Luckily all my efforts have not gone to waste as my savings allows Taylor Swift to fly her private jet 70 miles to a grocery store that has exotic fruits.
I have 3 heat pumps. I couldn't live without them. We all have to switch to solar also... It's getting cheaper every year and is starting to make a lot of financial sense.
In the 1970's we were told an ice age is imminent because industrial smoke was blocking heat from the sun....after a couple of really freezing winters in Europe. Being Irish, I experienced this first hand. Of course, it was wrong, everything went back to normal. In the mid 1980's we were told that London and Dublin would be under water and uninhabitable by the year 2000, and Venice would be gone due to man made global warming from the very same gasses blamed for global cooling in the 1970's. Dublin and London are still above the water and having visited Venice again last year, (4th time in 15 years), the city is still there and as beautiful as ever. Interestingly, the climate situation in the movie Blade Runner, made in 1982 was based on climate theories of the time showing a constantly wet Los Angeles in 2019 caused by climate change. It's now 2024, none of the doomsday predictions have happened yet. This is becoming a bit worn out. The western world has reduced emissions by huge amounts in the past 50 years at a great cost to industrial jobs. However, though there are strict rules in the west, China, Indonesia, Philippines, India are exempt from these rules and have simply replaced Europe and America as the Industrial behemoths. Even then, emissions have reduced since the 1980's. The climate catastrophe that was supposed to happen before the turn of the century, never happened with higher emissions. Now emissions are lower, so the theory of human caused climate change is extremely weak. The conditions that lead to the theory didn't come to pass 30 years ago and those conditions are now substantially reduced today. Nobody denies climate change. It happens, has done since the earth cooled down billions of years ago. The effect we have is similar to an army of ants running around on a billiard ball. We, as a species tend to overrate our own significance. When the climate does change, when the earth tilts and the next ice-age engulfs us, hopefully we will be ready for that. We may experience a 200 year warming event as happened in the middle ages which was followed by a period in the 18th and 19th centuries that was so cold that one could skate across the Liffey River in Dublin and the Thames in London. But it got back to normal. Emissions in the middle ages were insignificant and air pollution from the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century was at about 5% of the rate today......yet the climate changed. The climate will change regardless of what we do. If we were very smart we would try to find a way to keep the climate warm enough to avoid the devastation of the next ice age or have some really warm coats. 😉 We should remember the old saying, there are lies, damn lies......and statistics.
@FrostekFerenc No, it wasn't . However, many renowned scientists who don't ascribe to the Climate Change Religion are ignored, canceled and denounced. Just like all those people who said the virus came from a lab.
@@FrostekFerenczy You are incorrect. It was a group of scientists from a number of British universities. Either way, reading the rest of the comment, Brian is making a lot of sense. It's all true. He mentioned Venice which was destined to be totally destroyed by rising waters and tidal waves. People pointed to the seasonal flooding of St. Marks Square as evidence, even though that's been happening for hundreds of years. We run a small restaurant in Venice during the tourist season and have done for 20 years. The only issue in Venice is restoring very old wood pylon foundations, and that is going very well, thankfully. It's very difficult for those who built a career on a particular theory to admit they were wrong. Over the next few decades with the advancement of AI predictions, eventually people will admit the error, I believe.
much of it'd radiate out into space, but you'd get more frequent and severe storms in the areas surrounding the gulf. when you notice how an AMOC collapse would affect europe and the US, it suddenly makes a whole lot more sense why CC is a european/american issue, and why their geopolitical rivals are ramping up carbon emissions as quickly as they can. on the flip side, an AMOC shutdown would cover europe in snow and reverse ice loss from the north pole, that extra snow & ice would reflect thermal radiation and cool the planet, reversing the factors that caused the AMOC to shut down, and it'd eventually re-start. for people living in europe it'd be a disaster of biblical proportions, but the only thing the rest of the world would notice is a sudden increase in europeans complaining.
Very interesting video. I will say that I don't think it is at all certain that glacial melt caused by human made climate change (as is implied) is enough to drastically diminish the gulf stream. For example, it was once thought that glacial melt at the end of the last Ice Age was the cause of the Younger Dryas event. However, it is now thought that this glacial melt water entering the Atlantic was not enough to cause the collapse of the gulf stream. It is worth noting that the Holocene is an inter-glacial period so so if we are returning to glacial conditions it would be really hard to fight this process. Again I am not denying the massive influence that human activity has on the climate.
As he has said, the AMOC is a system that takes centuries for the water to circumnavigate the oceans. And its collapsing isn't something we will see in one day, but in decades. In the 60's it was predicted that it could collapse, now we have found strong evidence that it is already weakening, and it may take until the 2070's or 2080's until it (if that's what will happen) stops.
Rather than complaining about the end of their anomalous luck, if people want to be warmer, they should move toward the equator. Or if they want to be colder, move toward the poles. Climates are available for all sorts of tastes, but you may need to move.
@@artichoke60045 eh.... That would be called colonization. Not sure a massive influx of European in Africa and the middle east would be met with enthusiasm
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I remember being able to ice skate on our lakes here in holland. Now the winters are only grey, no snow, no ice. Just fog and grey. It is sad i cannot give my son the childhood i had. Building snow fortresses and ice skating with the whole neighborhood. It was a lot of fun. Sadly those days are over
The Gulf Stream is incomplete science. Europe has actually been gettin warmer because the atmosphere has been getting warmer, which more than compensates for any heat lost by the vastly overrated Gulf Stream factor.
As a Norwegian citizen on the literal top of the world this scared me as a kid, but the chances of the gulf switching is very low. If that happens I will move ASAP to the States
You mean the next ice age could be on its way? Hmm, were all the previous ice ages preceded by a shift in the gulf stream? How would you prove/disprove that?
@@johnruckman2320 the gulf stream collapsing was probably the cause. The point is that this one is man-made and far too early in the timeline. We are now in a period of mild climate all over earth, hence the booming of humanity. Normally these periods will gradually turn into an ice-age. This time the transition is expected to be much faster so flora and fauna won't have time to adapt.
According to Milankovitch Cycles (Earth's changing distances from the Sun which determine ice ages), we are at the end of an ice age, but temperatures should be stable for at least the next 1000 years or so, but in the last 50 years they've been rising 100 times faster than at any point in the history of human civilisation (last 10,000 years or so).
@@timothyrussell4445, as long as we remember the it's just theory/guessing. There was no recorded history that far back. It could have something to do with the axis tilt direction, or some other cycle (or combo thereof) to account for the ice ages.
@@jasperbean1The Gulf Stream won’t collapse because it is a wind-driven current powered by the Earth's rotation and the Coriolis effect, which directs its flow. The AMOC, on the other hand, is a thermohaline circulation consisting of multiple currents in the North Atlantic that transport heat further north. Most of Europe’s warmth comes from winds influenced by the Coriolis effect, while the thermohaline AMOC plays a crucial role in northern regions, preventing sea ice formation near areas like Norway.
We are in an accelerating geomagnetic excursion. This is a fact. One side of Antarctica is freezing , and that is what they do not tell you. The sahara will receive water that is explained here , the currents change, infact the entire jetstream is out of structure so to speak.
@suzannekim2801 i highly recommend this channel, and @suspicious observers" . Very good and clear view on the changes, on earth aswel as on the sun. No it is not about car emission and cow farts ( cows do no fart, that is the insane joke ) In our face , the lies are pretty criminal . Thanks for your feedback!
Over a decade ago, meteorologist Paul Douglas was speaking at a seminar for my employer. I asked him if global warming could suddenly shut off the Gulf Stream. He replied that if the Arctic Ocean warmed quickly enough, it was a distinct possibility.
Research has shown that temperatures rise before the CO2 levels increase. If they both occur in the same year and are sorted/grouped by year, then this would be hidden from observation.
@ Something else; not one computer model has worked based on the CO2 assumption let alone been repeated as required by scientific research. Weather modification, haarp, desalination plants, other manmade pollution, or natural planetary cycles are good candidates.
Yeah, only if you ignore the studies that show it also goes the other way round. We do not even have the abilty to manipulate weather on a large scale, let alone climates. HAARP doesn't do anything and why mention desalination plants? Pollution like soot only slowed global warming. It's not Mylankovic cycles either (WAY too slow), nor solar cycles. Between 1960-2020 the Sun was in the 2nd half of a 120 year cycle and instead of 0.4 C cooling like before, there was 1.1 C warming. That leaves the CO2 spike, 2.5x beyond the highs of at least the past 800,000 years. You just don't want to look at the elephant in the room (that's us).
Maybe it's a cultural thing, but it always seems to us that Americans are petrified of Ice Ages, but don't seem so bothered about global warming and desertification. Difference is that an Ice Age is easily reversible, but runaway global warming would make the whole planet permanently uninhabitable. Different folks, different stokes I guess....
the Earth is currently in a major ice age has been for 2.6 million years it’s called the Quaternary ice age it’s the 5th major ice age in the planet’s 4.6 billion year existence typically for our eon the planet is ice free, year round, even at the poles 99% of the last 245 million years were warmer than today
Yes, and Ukraine and other European grain belt countries currently feed a huge portion of that population. That will change in a big hurry if temperatures collapse the way the AMOC doomers predict.
@@readwriteteach If you cared about Ukraine, you wouldn't support a war there. The whole of Europe will suffer because it is time, not because of CO2 emissions.
@@kjnoahUkraine will conquer from the Caucasus to Moscow. All former Kievan Rus lands are Ukrainian and green Ukraine is also Ukrainian and Canada also has many Ukrainians so Canada is also rightful Ukraine
Hi Geoff, thank you for this warning, I heard it from other news already, and from comments to my channel about Energy Home DIY. I will use a screenshot at 6:10 for my video tomorrow, displaying also your channel name. Good work!
In Scientific American this old theory was not only disproved, but had been so with many other studies. It's one of the oldest outdated theories out there. But like a zombie it keeps coming back.
The idea that we could magically maintain the Earth at the 1850 climate in permanent stasis is totally absurd. With or without us, the Earth is a dynamic system in constant flux.
Back in the 1970s, "Experts" were telling everyone that we were going to throughout a mini ice age after a couple of hard Winters. Since then, we have had acid rain, rising sea levels, the hotest on record, the wettest on record, and record temperatures.
A colder Northern Europe might reverse the current warming trend. It used to be the case that the Rhine River froze every winter back in the 1800s so it would be nice to be able to skate on it again.
When the Arctic melts and water can pass freely over the top of the planet, I think that will more than compensate for any disadvantages of Gulf Stream changes...
Over the last 2 decades, UK summer highs have increased from 25C all the way to 38C, an increase of 13C. We have seen hotter, but that's exceptional. The UK has also seen significant increase in rainfall. 2 decades ago, April was largely wet, while much of the rest of the year was dryer. Over the last five years the UK has seen mostly rain from October to May, with fewer breaks in between. Summers have also become mixed - strong sun and high heat, or heavy rain with high heat. Flooding has also become very common, with Annual flooding across much of the UK. Dredging is no longer the answer, as the ground does not get enough time to dry out. The other thing to consider is a possible Magnetic pole shift, North - South. That doesn't mean your compass will change direction suddenly, but rather the Earth's magnetic shield is shifting, which can also affect our weather systems.
The cooling of the Gulf Stream was big news in the 1970s, when the next ice was beginning because of a few years of harsh winter. The same predictions seen in this video were on everyone's mind. Next we'll be worrying about plate tectonics and continental drift.
I think a lot of people also don't think about if the gulf stream collapses, not only will Europe get colder and all the problems they will have, without the warm waters of the gulf leaving it will stay put. When warm water leaves the gulf, the gulf doesn't drain away, it it replaced by cooler water somewhere else. So the gulf will not cool off either and just get warmer and warmer. It has been showing that now and more hurricanes then ever before are forming in the gulf and because of the Earth's spin will always head straight to the US. It used to be a rarity a cloud cluster forming only in the gulf to a cat 5 hurricane but is becoming the norm now. The gulf has been warmer and warmer each year, maybe you're right this collapse already happened
I am 61yo, and when I was learning about the Gulf Stream in high school and college, I never even thought that it could end. More so, I never imagined that it could occur in my lifetime. 😱 Maybe, people will wake up after this occurs, I just hope we can solve it, and not have to wait 1000 years.
As the UK drops to -40C in Winter we could see reverse migration on ice skates across the Channel back to France.
There will be a problem for Americans who may wish to escape into Mexico with that wall of Systematic CORPORATE Gentrification in their hearts❤😮
Yep, along with a collapsed economy and agriculture.
Scottish people, no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong overcoat.
On the bright side at -40 American tourists won't have to convert to Celsius when they visit.
The collapse of the Golf Stream would mean "only" a 6-8 Celsius degrees drop in average winter temperatures in England which is quite a lot but minus 40 degrees could appear (if they would appear at all) only as some extreme record even then and winters would just become more frosty and snowy (in general) than today. And that would not mean the collapse of agriculture although it would have to be changed quite substantially among more demanding circumstances.
In my native country, România, we had winters like in the south of Canada about 55 years ago. It was a lot of fun to build fortresses with snow walls, or snowmen, when I was a little kid.
In the last 15...20 years the climate has turned weird. At this very moment, November 28, 2024, more than three quarters of the leaves are still on trees in Bucharest, and many still have a greenish appearance.
I think we have had two very long and cold winters in Europe before this year though, and this year we've had a milder fall and maybe a shorter winter coming. It just seems like natural variance to me
that actually mirrors my experience in southern ontario canada. used to toboggan every new years, quebec skiing would open for american thanksgiving. Last winter was almost no snow, this year it still has'nt gotten below freezing.
@@Zakarias89 Yes, natural variance with every year being the hottest on record. Prediction - next year will be hotter than this one. Wanna bet?
@@timothyrussell4445this is why my arse froze this summer! The hottest bs indeed on MSM!
@@alexandrustefanmiron7723 Global means the world, not just where your arse resides during a given season.
Why is Europe always compared to the eastern US? If you compare it to the West coast of the US you will get pretty much the same temperatures.
There are Palm trees in Vancouver Canada at nearly 50° North, but none at Newfoundland.
The East and the West coasts are very very different.
AI reply: The West Coast, however, is influenced by the cold California Current, resulting in cooler temperatures.
Continental vs. Maritime Climates: Both Eastern North America and Europe experience more of a continental climate with distinct seasons, while the West Coast has a more moderate maritime climate due to the Pacific Ocean's influence.
Why the West Coast is different:
Mountain Ranges: The presence of major mountain ranges like the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada creates a rain shadow effect, leading to drier conditions in many parts of the West Coast. This is a significant difference compared to Europe.
Ocean Currents: As mentioned earlier, the cold California Current has a major impact on West Coast temperatures.
Your Examples:
You're spot on about the palm trees in Vancouver! This highlights the microclimates created by the Pacific Ocean and the mountain ranges. Newfoundland, despite being at a similar latitude to Vancouver, experiences much colder temperatures due to the Labrador Current and lack of a significant rain shadow effect.
In conclusion: While comparisons between Europe and the Eastern US are common due to historical and latitudinal similarities, it's crucial to recognize the significant climate variations within both continents. The West Coast of North America presents a different climate model altogether, influenced by unique factors like ocean currents and mountain ranges.
@@astoni314 Very true!
Additionally the East and West coast get influenced by the westerlies in different ways. Allthough the pacific ocean is cooler than the atlantic, its enough to moderate the climate there by winds form the ocean. The East coast gets the wind from the continent, which hosts very cool air masses. (Speaking of Winter)
In Europe the lack of a significant Mountain range fades the mild oceanic climate to the West in a Continental climate to the East. You can draw a line approximately through the middle of Germany where the Continental climate begins.
Even if the gulf stream collapses, Western Europe will not get the climate of the eastern US, the westerly Winds will always bring mild ocean air onto land, exept the jet stream wiggles and we get a „Beast from the East“.
those are cold hardy palm trees that can grow in a lot of places
@@astoni314the milder, purely oceanic climate that you mention in the Pacific Northwest can be found in between Galicia Spain all the way to Brittany, France, west coasts of uk/Ireland, and southeastern Norway. And their winter/summer temperature ranges are very similar to the pacific northwest
Becasue it don´t fit the naritive.
Finland, Batlic states and Poland have basically no impact of the Atlantic currents. They still survive perfectly well.
The reason for this is that the Baltic have brackish water.. and..well also the Baltic is huge (about twice the size and area as all the great lakes combined)
Ukraine also have basically zero impact of the Atlantic currents. Granted ukraine is quite far south, but the very southern part of ukraine specially Krim (now under Russian control) is dry and hot, being 45 degrees north, that is similar to the Dakotas with fairly similar climate, but a bit milder winters due to the coastal effect of the black sea.
Really the whole reason why europe have mild winters and milds summers is coastal effect, and more so coastal effect of salt or brackish water.
Always speak about how mild the winters are. Winter have zero effect on agriculture. If its -30 or -3 degrees don´t matter.
Summer temperature effect way more, and how early the spring is.
What most Americans don´t understand is that in mid Sweden, say just a tad north of Stockholm where the northern most normal agriculture is (there is ranches a quite a bit more north), the growing season is like 3-4 month long. You plant seeds in mid may, and harvest them in mid august.
In southern Sweden you may be able to saw in mid April and harvest as late as early September.
Its not very warm so it don´t grow that fast. The question is of cause how its even possible to grew anything at all when the season is that short.
Well the reason is that the sun sets at 11PM and raises 2AM and the ground is soaked with water pretty much year around. This is also true for southern Finland and Estonia, and to a degree also western Russia.
If we go to Siberia, the reason why agriculture don´t work well there have nothing to do with that its cold. It is cold, in the winter. But its plenty warm in the summer. The issue with Siberia is that they have very dry summer. This is very obvious when you go a bit south like Kazakstan and Mongolia that is basically desert environment. While Siberia does get warm in summer, it never get as hot as it would need to become a desert.
Talking to a friend online who lives in Belgium while I was experiencing a small snow storm in Toronto. Sent him a picture where upon he told me it was because we were so much further north in Canada. He was shocked to learn that he was in fact 800 kilometers further north. Toronto is at the same latitude as Florence, Italy.
I remember the cold, snowy winters of my childhood.
I still remember cold and snowy winters now. What is your point?
We haven't seen snow here in Ireland since 2014 even though we are further North than the entire US.
@gerardflynn7382 there was heavy snow last year in parts of Ireland. Doesn't last long though. Thank god
That was last winter!
@@bioliv1 nothing compared to few decades ago.
Good thing we aren't even attempting to act like we care to stop it.
Nah, all we do is make videos about it and tell others how to live their lives. Fixing the planet is other peoples problem.
we cant stop it.. there is natural climate change.. do you want global cooling? an ice age would be far more devastating then global warming... we have more greenery today then ever in history if you do the research you would know... we have like 130 years of climate data compared to the earth thats notthing.. a blink in time.
Unfortunately, we are most likely just going to have to deal with the consequences of climate change because we have an oil based economy with no efficient alternatives. Nuclear would help some so France is headed in the right direction.
True
@@shortyshort5290 Earth's climate has been changing since the day it came into existence. It can not and will not be stopped.
There was once a time, 30 years ago or longer, where winters in the EU were as harsh as those in Canada. But things changed and nowadays in my country we get like 5cm of snow for 3-6 days in the ENTIRE winter season.
30 years ago, we got -10 or -15°C for 2 or 3 weeks where I live in Belgium, now we don't even get -5°C for a couple of days. But we're far from getting -25°c/-30°c or less that they get in Canada
We had a couple of winters here in France where temps dropped as low as -20°C in some places, but they were exceptions and these cold spells didn't last long. I kind of remember 1985 and 1995 (not sure for the 2nd one, but I think it was).
what, in sweden there was never snow when i was a kid but now its often white winters. not yet this year tho sthlm region
@@audhumbla6927 When were you a kid?
@@audhumbla6927 Westcoast have every fourth fifth year a longer winter, mostly snow for a day or two.
I live in Poland and it seems like what is happening is exactly the opposite vs what was presented here. You say that these currents weaken year by year so it can lead to harsh winters. We used to have proper winters until 20 years ago and regular rain and snow throughout the year. Now we have mild winters without snow and droughts in the spring/summer. The key impact of these currents is the humidity that it brings, it turns into rain or snow, depending on the season. If we don't have e enough rain in the spring or summer, we have drought, if we dont have snow in the winter, we have mild winters. Snow is an isolator, without it we cannot have proper winter. It isolates the air from the heat of the ground leading to further temperature drop as the air can cool down. It then supports snow to accumulate on the ground and stay for a longer period of time.
a) This isn't happening now, it looks like it could happen in the future. Right now it's getting warmer. If it does, it will keep getting warmer for a bit and then start getting colder again.
a) But anyway I think Poland is too far from the Atlantic for this to affect it much directly. Though you might end up feeding Britain and Spain / taking in our refugees when we stop being able to farm.
Isn’t that worse? Because at least with snow you can melt it and use it. Without water you can’t survive.
The global climate is growing hotter at an alarming rate, which leads to the heat you observe.
This also causes glaciers on Greenland to melt at a more accelerated force, which in turn lowers the temperature of the ocean in that area. Once there was enough of this water increase, the amoc will grow weaker until it's gone, and we are seeing this exact process happening now.
These processes are causing each other, but the effects of each step takes a while to build up.
We have had years of hot weather, which led to years of massive melting, which now leads to interference with the amoc.
You are also observing weather, not climate and especially not deep sea currents and salinity.
These climate interference are very complicated and to get a proper understanding of how they affect each other and what factors into them, as well as how they affect weather now and how this will change in the future, you will need to look into extensive research into climate science.
But the short version of the sequence we can currently observe and predict is as follows:
More CO2 / methane -> hotter climate -> hotter weather in Poland and hotter weather in Greenland -> more melting -> lower salinity in North Atlantic -> slowing down of amoc while the climate in general is still heating up -> amoc collapse and freezing of Europe while the rest of the world is getting hotter still
@@CPMateusz same here in germany. This video is complete garbage
@@essentials1016 No you just don't understand the video
We dont have colder winters in Europe. They are a lot warmer than 30 years ago. Haven't seen snow for years, while it used to be every year.
Nonsens
That is true. I remember such cold winters in Poland as a child. Now hardly any snow.
@@AW-uf1mk indoctrination from fake news seems to work well for you.
Climate change shouldn`t be noticable in a life-span (unless it`s caused by a meteor or a massive volcanic eruption). The fact that IT IS, is bad news.......
@@AW-uf1mk Same on the west coast of Norway, used to ski every day in the winters. Now i gotta travel inland to use them.
If you walk around museums in Netherlands you will see many pictures about people skating on the ice of Amsterdam channels - apparently this was quite popular also after heavy drinking and quite a few people died after ice broke sometimes. Nowadays nobody remembers the last time Amsterdam channels have frozen.
There were centuries in relatively recent history of Europe, when the temperatures were significantly lower. And still Europe flourished.
gee, this makes me feel so old...
@@jarigustafsson7620 How old?
Incorrect, a few year ago people were iceskating on the canals in Amsterdam. Some places were weaker than others, but deffo within the last 5/10 years. - Though I do agree, it happens more rarely. ;)
@@Bartkonig You are right, it was probably in 2018. But yes, this does not change my point - there were times when the climate in Europe was consistently colder. Yet, people adapted.
@@zzip0 Sorry but you cant adapt to -30C, we need to stop this now, and let me remind you that this is not the only thing also air pollution killing nature STB...
The Kuroshiro Current is similar to the Gulf stream, flowing north from the Philippines, past Japan, to Alaska, and then down the west coast of the US. The weather in Sitka AK is quite similar to the weather in Aberdeen Scotland, at about the same latitude.
And Vancouver, Seattle and Portland are significantly warmer (and less icy) than their in land counterparts. Seattle, for example, is further north than Minneapolis, but Seattle doesn't experience the level of winter weather that Minneapolis does.
@@steinbockguy Yes. Cities far from the ocean are usually the coldest. For example, Fairbanks, Calgary, Winnipeg, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Moscow, Kiev, Warsaw, and Siberia.
@ exactly but let’s also keep in mind that Seattle and Portland are both at a minimum 120 miles from the coast or approximately 190 km but you are absolutely right compared to continental cities they are almost coastal.
@@BigPictureYT r
@@steinbockguywhen did Seattle move inland? It's about as inland as Tokyo or Miami.
75+ years ago Europe had much harsher winters than they have now. I think they can handle it.
The population was considerably lower.
@@meglobob9217 Good, we have now reducing population in Europe, so things will be OK.
@@rcud1 you are totally right winters were harsher 60 years ago
@@charleswillcock3235 you seemed to skp the fact on food supplies and the strain on energy systems.. feels like you're a climate change doubter which is funny
Not even remotely similar to what is being talked about here.
When station at Naval Air Station Keflavik, Iceland; always amazed that conditions along the coast were so much milder than I expected.
Having lived in Scotland for many years I was unimpressed by Iceland's version of cold. Not significantly different from Scotland. As ever it's wind chill that's the real issue not so much ambient temperature.
@@kalliste23 in Wales we have damp and windy, but not as cold as Scotland. When discussing the changes to the UK from AMOC changes, I always look at our cyclical severe winters like 1947, 1963 (which I lived through), and our decreasing capacity in society to actually deal with them .
Except that so far, this is NOT what’s been happening. He says that Northern Europe is the only part of the world that’s been getting cooler, when in fact it’s one of the places warming the fastest. So, we should be mindful that climate is very complicated and there are undoubtedly many things about it that we don’t understand yet. The Gulf Stream and AMOC are apparently not the only major factors to consider now.
Note the use of conditionals like "might" and "could"
Actually they're modal verbs, but you're right - he should be saying 'will' since there is already compelling physical evidence the process has already started.
A kind of Betelgeuze it seems.
@@timothyrussell4445 Please advise where I might find this evidence.
Note that that is generally how science works
Note that that is generally how science works
I saw a documentary close to fifty yrs ago. Must have been on PBS. Freaked me out how sensitive our world is. ✨
Except 50 years ago PBS showed actual science...
Back then when I was a child They claimed we were all going to freeze to death in the up and coming ice age.
50 years later that did not happen.
Well now I'm curious!🧐
What did they say was going to happen and how much of what they said has come true? 🤔
Thank you in advance for your reply 🙏
Yes Im still freaking out 50 years later when nothing has happened almost like with the so-called Great Barrier Reef catastrophe. You know the one that today is at is largest since they started to measure it.
The legacy media are told to scare people. The Cabal insists on it
@5:17, those are cooling towers and the white fluffy stuff is water. No pollution here.
I really cannot take a video seriously that tries to talk about a very, very serious subject but then fks up his stock footage when showing "greenhouse gases" like come on, do your due diligence for crying out loud... 🙄🤦🏻🤦🏻
I second that. Plus: no gold fish 'spawning' in Europe in the wild ANYWHERE; the Gulf Stream CANNOT collapse (it is driven by the Coriolis forces drag); and I lose count of the inaccuracies.
@@TwoDogSay Almost as if this whole thing is just made up, makes you think.
Also this channel is funded by famous island visitor computer guy
@@MarkusMöttus-x7j To be fair, water vapour is a bigger greenhouse gas than CO2. But yeah...
this is nitpicking at its finest ffs
I have been sportsfishing and mushroom picking for 35 years in Denmark and trust me it's getting strange. We now find a lot of mushrooms that before was only found 1000 km more south. And warm water fish have become much more ordinary and cold water species have almost disappeared. But due to our very old history and culture we have fishing data dating back 400 years forexample sea bass I now common, bus much less than it was in year 1700-1800. But when I was a child there was none caught, they dissapered total in year 1900-1999. Now we have 500kg tuna jumping in Kattegat as in up untill the 1940. We now used to have a lot of grayling but now it's too hot and they are almost extinct. Vikings grew wheat and potatoes in greenland but they the vikings died off likely due to cold weather. Also the filmbuhl winter was a very cold period in the Viking Age. Like 10% of denmark are old sand dunes covering old farming soil where our oldest Churches are, and we don really know how these dunes was created. Likely the ocean sank several meters during filmbuhl vinter and our beaches got kilometer wide and blew inland
Very interesting.
So - it's getting warmer? It's not here in central France, where, like Florida, temperatures are more or less stable. Interesting, but nowhere near the 2010 prophecies which claimed SE England would be flooded by sea level rise, yet otherwise in permanent drought by 2020 (This 'documentary' was fronted by Sir David Attenborough no less.) Since then of course, rainfall in England and sea levels have remained stable, and the Thames continues to flow.
What about all the spraying off the earth I watched a really good program about our bees & less flies this might not come into a factor off most people but having no bees means no pollination & flies removing the death cleanup
I've seen farmyard slipping in the fjords, very scary stuff. Not recently, back in the 1970s
Grand Solar Minimum
This video repeats itself considerably - at best, 3 minutes of info.
Nice summary, the only imprecision is that Northern Europe is not cooling now. The cooling concerns an area over the Northern Atlantic, Europe is very well warming everywhere, for now.
So what I’m hearing is that I should move to Northern Europe
Yea pack shorts and t-shirts and plenty of sun block, its going to be hot.
Stay where you are. It's a scam, if you haven't noticed yet...I mean, you are welcome in unwelcoming Germany, but you'd have to pay 5 times more for your electricity...😅
Russia.
@@jamorant21 Bon voyage
@@JustMe-andyou3 Nowhere could electricity be 5 times more expensive than Ireland.
Wow !!! The weather is running amoc....
I see what you did there.
Bruh.. 🤦🏻😂😂
May God forgive you!
No it isn't
Lol!
The AMOC may slow down and may observe a tipping point, "collapsing". However, the Gulf stream is a surface stream caused by the earth rotation and won't collapse. Indeed, the AMOC pushes it up further north which would no longer happen, thus it would definitely have an effect on Scandinavia, Ireland and the UK. However, the weather in continental Europe generally speaking would more likely resemble the US and Canadian West Coast than the East coast - again, caused by earth rotation, although there is no such "cold blob" in the Pacific. This could nonetheless be troublesome, but destinclty from those outlined in the video.
See an expert talking about the AMOC here: th-cam.com/video/mm_YZ2juQL4/w-d-xo.html
It appears the biggest risk of the the AMOC disrupting isn't even the climate effects on continental Europe, but the world-wide effect on climate zones as the AMOC is part of a global system, not limited to the North-Atlantic, and even the effect on (West)Antarctica and its glaciers could be severe - all effects that take thousands of years to reverse once tipping points are reached.
Thank you!
WHAT!! You mean this sort ofclimate change has happened in the past... Gosh! What a shock!!!
Thank you as well.
Unless the Earth stops rotating on an axis then ocean currents will continue, as will wind. If the Earth stops spinning, we will have more serious and immediate problems to deal with. (If it stopped spinning suddenly then we wont worry for long)
Finally, someone who thinks. By the way, the AMOC shutdown in the previous ice age was not a cause, it was a consequence!
As someone from Ireland, our infrastructure cant even handle a bit of snow. I for one welcome the madness that should ensue
Irish here too. Yeah it would be mad but we'd adapt. After a few years of harsh winters our infrastructure would be redesigned.
@@shanehughes3511 Lad our government can't even seem to build houses and fix simple potholes, we'd be goosed
Sad to see our country in bits
@@andrewboland1062 ah when you think of it, complaining about potholes and the lack of grit is a luxury. We’ve got it very well off.
Just like in Poland you guys will adapt, after all us poles and Irish people share a similar story
As someone who has been living in the middle belt of Russia for the past 38 years, I have observed that our climate here has become warmer and milder in general, over the past decades. Winters are becoming less snowy, more warm. In the Arctic part of Russia, the Arctic Ocean ice coverage is becoming less dense, less regular, and as a result, the Northern Sea Route is becoming easier and easier to traverse.
The Day after Tomorrow is mainly based off the AMOC and Gulf Stream collapsing although they overly exaggerated the effects, it'll still be bad.
thats a fear mongering movie. climate initiatives that we do in the west dont do anything to stop it. do your own research.
Only the AMOC will collapse i don't really know how to explain but I saw a video that the gulf stream wouldn't because it's mainly dictated by the Earth's rotation which isn't stopping any time soon
You just made me realise that film came out nearly 20 years ago. At the time I genuinely thought the events of the film would happen by 2006.
The day after tomorrow is entertainment, nothing more. When the AMOC really should collapse (what I don't beleive), the global warming will be stronger than the cooling, also in Europe.
@@MooseOsauras wrong if or when amoc slows or stop completely, then it's based on amound of ice is melted in greenland.
amoc is based on sweet and sault water system sweet is transporting cold via ocean floor to the south and warmth above back to the north warmed up on equator of the earth
Northwestern Europe will never have a climate similar to the US East Coast. Even without the Gulf Stream we would still have a maritime climate, which moderates summer and winter temperatures. A colder Atlantic probably means slightly harsher winters and less precipitation, which I would very much welcome.
it doesn't matter what you prefer or welcome, our societies didn't and won't be able to adapt to these quick changes, that's the main problem with climate change
The trend is that Northern Europe will get colder and Southern Europe will get hotter and drier.
Whether Southern Europe would become drier if Golf Stream collapsed is an open question. Because the Canary Current would, supposedly, also disappear then, and that mkaes the Iberian Peninsula and Moroc drier. So its disappearance could lead to more precipitation in the Western half of the Meditarrenian and in the Sahara.
Because the western part is drier and hotter than the eastern part of the continent.
What happens to Northern European summers though, he only mentioned our winters in the video
@@Deranged316 Shorter summers. Britain will be as cold as Iceland in the winter.
@DanH-u3f can't wait, love the cold ❄️❄️❄️
Cool video! AND you have not peppered it with irrelevant visuals but show only what enhances understanding. Thumbs up and subsrcibed!
Fascinating🙏 Thank you! The Bronze Age Collapse would be an interesting video-super connected societies, megalithic architecture, wealth, art-it collapsed (one reason being climate change) and the Greeks even forgot how to read and write. We can learn so much from studying our history📚
But do we ever learn from it?
Northern Europe used to be colder.
Like *a lot* colder! 😂
Not sure that's true, during the middle ages Hadrian's wall (the border between England and Scotland) was used to grow grapes. Not sure how warm it has to to grow grapes but I'm guessing pretty warmer than it is now?
@joelewis9960 I have seen pictures of snow plows in the uk. Does the UK have snow plows now? Here in Canada we grow grapes and it snows. Just because it was colder, doesn't mean grapes didn't grow.
And warmer.
@@yuriklaver4639
In southern Sweden where I live it used to be Mediterranean-like climate and people used to farm on terraces on hills facing north..
It's a really cool place, beautiful too!
It's also a nature reserve now so the natural beauty is off the charts!!
The pole is already shifting. The UK is on the same latitude as Siberia and does get freezing cold in winter. Scotland is a killer in winter.
Freezing cold yes - but only as in a bit below freezing...most of Britain doesn't experience what most of the developed world would consider a 'severe' winter, in fact both science and the personal experience of anyone you care to talk to will inform you that Britain's already mild winters have become more so in recent decades (with the notable exceptions of 2010/2011 when we had unusually low temperatures for a few weeks). The pole shifts this way and that a little bit, it isn't an event of great significance.
@@danyoutube7491 if you look at *just* temperature, yes. There's much more going on though, it's not like America where 50% humidity is considered extremely humid, whilst here it's always at 100%, which greatly exaggerates the effects since that humidity condensates on clothes, skin, etc. I read somewhere (and can vouch from experience of going to eastern Europe mid winter every year) that -2 here feels very similar to -20 in most of America and Canada
Not to mention the frequent storms.
I live in Las Vegas and it was crazy here this summer. The last half of the season, the sun was so intense that almost all of the plants in our landscaping including cactus, various bushes and trees and even the palm trees had the same side of their foliage burned to a crisp from being baked in the sun during peak hours every day over the course of a few weeks. I can’t imagine it being even worse next year, -shit’s going to catch fire. 👀 We drained our pool for now bc the water level was evaporating so rapidly it drove the water bill up keeping it at levels the system would still be able to function not to mention you couldn’t be out in the water enjoying yourself without becoming drenched in sweat even in the shade. So yeah.. can’t even imagine how it’s going to progress. Bummer :/
@@valeking5993 in South Africa they use a sun blocking shade cloth over veg patches and car parks.
It may not be pretty, and I dont know the size of your garden, but it may be worth looking at putting up a large frame and at least covering the back area over the pool. The shade cloth comes in various degrees of protection from about 50% up to 90% I believe. The difference is amazing. Even using it as a car port outside your garage to protect the paint.
Building a city in a desert like Las Vegas is like building a city in New Orleans prone to flooding= Terrible idea.
In Ireland our weather is becoming milder in the summer and warmer in the winter. The only bad weather that causes issues is the wind and rain.
If anything our weather is becoming less extreme. Except for the occasional fiercer storm.
Yes and El ninjo had nothing to do with it especially on the west coast which are the most sensitive cost for El Ninjos
An outdoor pool in Las Vegas is deranged anyway. Having outdoor pools in the effing desert is a REALLY good idea. Only Americans can have ideas as foolish as these. The have got to learn a lot.
As someone living in Europe, I haven't seen winters getting colder despite the Gulf stream apparently being at its weakest.
As a kid I used to be able to go out and play in the snow and now it's rare to even have a day of snowfall in winter, let alone having snow on the ground
Ireland is further North than New York and thanks to the Gulfstream we do not the extremes in heat and cold that New York suffers from. We get mild weather and rain all year around :)
Hmm, this theory sounds all the more familiar, I could've sworn I've seen it in a movie somewhere.
Yes its been around for a long time and guess what? Like all the other fear-mongering attempts this one has never come true either or like the Swedish experts said this year to Swedish mainstream media "Stop telling that the Gulf Stream is slowing down because it aint true" The Gulf Stream seems even more resilient than we ever thought was their words. (The Article can be found in SVT news from February 2024) How refreshing when some scientists tell us how it really is.
The movie was a very dramatised affair based on this idea - the idea doesn't come from the movie.
i saw it in a ruzzian disinfo campaign.
The Day After Tomorrow?
@@danyoutube7491 in movie the day after tomorrow, this issue is explained but changes happens very fast, it's possible that can happen that fast.
but can also taking decades to happen this changes.
9:18 There are not many Atlantic Rain Forests left in the UK 😢
I started fishing the western wall of the Gulfstream, around 25 degrees north latitude in 1981. Been distance swimming same since late nineties. The past four years the change (absence) of the current I loved so much has been dramatic. It is so obvious to me. I feel so sad.
Ten, twenty years ago, the days when the Stream was replaced by green water from the Keys were the exception. Now, seeing a weak eddy of Gulf Stream water mixing with the Keys water are a rare exception.
I know the water(s) very well. Swimming a mile a day for decades can do that. No one believes me. No one cares. But I KNOW it isn't right.
The collapse has already begun.
Wow! Thanks for sharing your experience. Climate change should be all we focus on. I hope everyone gets on board before the tipping points.
@@SidW-l4z Wish they would be clear about what they mean by tipping point. It means warming will start feeding itself. At that stage it will mean there's nothing we can do.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front.
It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient.
It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front.
It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient.
It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
Your personal experience is more interesting than all the science, and easier to imagine.
Thank You for this great video. It is snowing in London right now due to a snow storm, very unusual.
30 years ago, max temperatures in Serbia during the summer were between 30C and 33C. Now, we are barely below 40C in July and Avgust, 30-35c in Jun and September. In North Macedonia and Greece it is even worse. It was 40-43C in the south part of Macedonia this year, so it's almost impossible to breathe.
Currently Southern Europe has been suffering from excessive heat and drought in recent years. Not just in summer with record temperatures and extended drought conditions but also in winter where rainfall has been concentrated in short, excessive bursts which has caused flooding and swept away top soil rather than spread over the winter months.
So, cooler conditions caused by the slowdown in the AMOC and Gulfstream MAY actually help to mitigate global warming in more southern parts of Europe by reducing the extreme rainfall events and lowering winter temperatures to more temperate levels. Remember Southern Europe is on roughly the same latitude as the midwest farming states and they manage okay with quite pronounced seasonal temperature differences. It will mean less tomatoes and crops more typical of Northern Europe.
Additionally, this could move rainfall south to the desert regions of North Africa making those areas greener as has happened in the past.
Finally, the UK and Northern Europe are amongsts the most advanced areas when it comes to renewable energy given the very windy conditions that exist in the UK, Denmark, North Sea etc. Solar power is very low due to latitude but also due to the amount of cloud and rain. If the climate changes to drier conditions there will be opportunities for warmer weather crops in summer and also for greater solar power generation and possibly also more wind generation in central Europe which currently tends to be quite calm. Germany, Czech Republic, Austria etc.may find their climate becoming windier, more akin to Northern Europe.
Which is a long winded way of saying that the slowing AMOC may change the European climate but that may just shift things around and the bad stuff may be counterbalanced by positive changes and different solutions.
No, not good for southern Europe, because you'll have drier weather as well, which is a major cause of your problems. Moreover, even if we could confidently say it would make southern Europe like the American midwest, they don't cope well at all - they are sucking up ancient ground water to irrigate crops. Climate change isn't going to give us more consistency, and weather it gets colder or hotter that won't let us benefit from warmer climate crops because we still get the same amount of sunlight and lack enough during the winter (plus the increased frequency & severity of storms and weird weather is always bad for agriculture).
@@danyoutube7491 Where I live in Scotland it rains on 200 days per year. In many areas further into the mountains it can be 250 days per year and as much as three metres of rainfall per year.
Though naturally this is often part of the day or during night time, there are usually significant periods of cloudy weather around the rain days plus significant cloud cover through much of the summer. This is also true in other western parts of the UK. If the changes predicted occur I think many parts of the UK and Northern Europe could get a lot more sunlight simply because the colder weather would reduce the mild and very wet south westerlies which cause so much of our weather. It is usually a considerable improvement from the seemingly endless winter gloom when we get our weather from a more northerly direction (even the north west).
In addition, if the energy/warmth from these ocean currents in the Atlantic stops travelling to the North East Atlantic area surely it still has to go somewhere ? Wouldn't the most likely movement be a less northerly track across to Southern Europe and North Africa which will make these areas cloudier and wetter ? After all it is this energy which currently makes the UK and coastal areas of Northern Europe so cloudy and wet. The difference between Southern Europe and my earlier comparison with the midwest US states is that the US states are predominantly landlocked, continental climate and Southern Europe is mostly surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea with the Atlantic ocean to the east in the direction of the prevailing winds. Some areas like the Iberian peninsula and Italy are mostly surrounded by water. I don't see why they wouldn't become wetter if the prevailing weather systems that currently travel across the Atlantic in a north east direction travelled on a more southerly track.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front.
It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient.
It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
But think about the atmospheric aspect, why would Europe freeze without the gulf stream when the arctic is melting which will warm the easterlies and smooth out the gradient between the Polar cell and Ferrel cell? It would ssentially weaken the polar front.
It would warm that area, irrelevant to gulf stream disruptions due to the "cold blob" because the melting would cause warming that warms the easterlies and, not only degrades the low pressure front that is the wall between the Polar and Ferrel cells because the newly warmer soutward easterlies would have lower density against the warm northward westerlies at the sub polar convergance, but also because it would degrade the polar front, the place where there is a major temperature change from warm to cold, because the warming would cause a smoother gradient.
It looks like it would be a weakening of thermohaline circulation and atmospheric cells.
This is a scare story about things you cannot see.
To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC."
Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation.
Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2.
MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021)
The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv.
"Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years.
There is no climate crisis.
The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations.
The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really? These models can't even model one of the key physical processes, Convection, in ocean currents "because convection is a small-scale process, it is not captured well in most current models (Jackson et al (2023)".
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two.
Also the 'Cold Blob' has disappeared from North Atlantic surface temperatures, when annual anomalies for 2013-2023 are compared to the average for the period 1979-2010 (ECMWF ERA5). The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) shows a Sea Surface Temperature departure of over +2°C exactly where the Cold Blob used to be. It may have been there but it's gone. Looking more carefully using NOAA ERSST V5 data for North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (50N-65N, 50W-10W) shows in 1942 a +1°C anomaly declining to -0.7°C in 1992 then rising almost by +1°C in 2010, declining again to -0.6°C in 2010, and of course rising again to +0.75°C in 2023. There are also oscillations in the data back to the 1850s, but there is no trend overall up or down, and no correlation to CO2. The same is true for the heat content in the North Atlantic down to 1000m (Met Office data). No correlation to CO2, just a natural variability. That's the data. The Cold Blob is an artefact.
The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
@@OldScientist best comment I've seen in years
@@andrewrobertson8282 Yes, much ado about nothing. Scare-mongering for political ends.
I tu powtarza fakt że wysokie CO2 jest ściemniane społeczeństwa kłamstwami
Al Gore pytany od kogo takie dane o wzroście stężenia CO2
Od jednego naukowca raczej pseudo naukowiec
Tu chodzi o kasę i zawyżanie kosztów życia reszta to zombie naukowców który łykają kłamstwa powielane 1000 razy stają prawda
Nigdy nie uwierzyłem ich kłamstw
That is the same Lead Scientist that stated 1'c Temperature rise by 2100. I am sure he was on the team that said SLR of max 300 mm by 2100. Ignorance is wonderful if you wish to remain blind and live in the dark. Are we at 1.5'c yet ? Even though 2024 was 1.6'c. ?
To many facts get in the way of a good story.
The Sahara desert has recently gained more water. A frozen Europe would rely on crops from the Sahara.
Correct. Future of ag. is to develop the Sahara.
bruh if europe froze i doubt anyone would need food after all frozen bodies don't eat so
Yes, we’ll rebuild the entirety of modern agriculture in a region that doesn’t have the carrying capacity, excellent. And all of that hardy soil, I’m sure 20 years is enough time to make a desert into the agricultural heartland of the world.
@@Jim-b4t but why? we currently dont grow crops on alot of good land
@ aside from greenhouses in a cold weather climate for basic needs, what other alternatives are available to feed vast populations. The desert may or may not accommodate agriculture if rainwater is sporadic. There will be rain it has to go somewhere.
It should be noted that this topic is hotly debated by climate scientists and we don't know for sure if it's actually collapsing, and what rate it's collapsing at. It could even take hundreds of years (as estimated in tons of studies)
Excellent video and I like how it's been simplified in terms off explanation about the Gulf Steam! ❤
I just installed a mini split in my garage shop. It's really hot here in summer, Southeast Texas, and it seems to be getting a tiny bit hotter each year. So I did something about it. It cost a lot but we can't value only money. My unit is a heat pump with a pretty good SEER. So I'm doing my part.
I live in Arizona and don't use A/C at all during the summer or heat during the winter. I've adapted my comfort range from 40 degrees to 96 degrees. I also ride a bicycle if errands are within 5 miles in town, and electric bicycle for up to 15 miles in town. For long distance trips I drive a micro engine car that averages 50mpg or take Amtrak. Luckily all my efforts have not gone to waste as my savings allows Taylor Swift to fly her private jet 70 miles to a grocery store that has exotic fruits.
I have 3 heat pumps. I couldn't live without them. We all have to switch to solar also... It's getting cheaper every year and is starting to make a lot of financial sense.
so, your gonna warm even more around your garage...
This comment section just shows how screwed of a species we really are
@@Zephyrion__ Including your comment?
@ that doesn’t make any sense
Don't worry, it's not real people. Those are bots supporting a narrative that benefits those who can afford them
@@CarlMartin-hw3ev By your own logic your comment is included too. And this one.
Meanwhile in New Zealand… ☮ 🐝🌳 🌻🌷☀
Amazing episode!
Well done! Thank you 🤙
In the 1970's we were told an ice age is imminent because industrial smoke was blocking heat from the sun....after a couple of really freezing winters in Europe. Being Irish, I experienced this first hand. Of course, it was wrong, everything went back to normal. In the mid 1980's we were told that London and Dublin would be under water and uninhabitable by the year 2000, and Venice would be gone due to man made global warming from the very same gasses blamed for global cooling in the 1970's. Dublin and London are still above the water and having visited Venice again last year, (4th time in 15 years), the city is still there and as beautiful as ever. Interestingly, the climate situation in the movie Blade Runner, made in 1982 was based on climate theories of the time showing a constantly wet Los Angeles in 2019 caused by climate change. It's now 2024, none of the doomsday predictions have happened yet. This is becoming a bit worn out. The western world has reduced emissions by huge amounts in the past 50 years at a great cost to industrial jobs. However, though there are strict rules in the west, China, Indonesia, Philippines, India are exempt from these rules and have simply replaced Europe and America as the Industrial behemoths. Even then, emissions have reduced since the 1980's. The climate catastrophe that was supposed to happen before the turn of the century, never happened with higher emissions. Now emissions are lower, so the theory of human caused climate change is extremely weak. The conditions that lead to the theory didn't come to pass 30 years ago and those conditions are now substantially reduced today. Nobody denies climate change. It happens, has done since the earth cooled down billions of years ago. The effect we have is similar to an army of ants running around on a billiard ball. We, as a species tend to overrate our own significance. When the climate does change, when the earth tilts and the next ice-age engulfs us, hopefully we will be ready for that. We may experience a 200 year warming event as happened in the middle ages which was followed by a period in the 18th and 19th centuries that was so cold that one could skate across the Liffey River in Dublin and the Thames in London. But it got back to normal. Emissions in the middle ages were insignificant and air pollution from the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century was at about 5% of the rate today......yet the climate changed. The climate will change regardless of what we do. If we were very smart we would try to find a way to keep the climate warm enough to avoid the devastation of the next ice age or have some really warm coats. 😉 We should remember the old saying, there are lies, damn lies......and statistics.
> In the 1970's we were told an ice age is imminent
That was journalists, not scientists.
@FrostekFerenc No, it wasn't . However, many renowned scientists who don't ascribe to the Climate Change Religion are ignored, canceled and denounced. Just like all those people who said the virus came from a lab.
@@FrostekFerenczy You are incorrect. It was a group of scientists from a number of British universities. Either way, reading the rest of the comment, Brian is making a lot of sense. It's all true. He mentioned Venice which was destined to be totally destroyed by rising waters and tidal waves. People pointed to the seasonal flooding of St. Marks Square as evidence, even though that's been happening for hundreds of years. We run a small restaurant in Venice during the tourist season and have done for 20 years. The only issue in Venice is restoring very old wood pylon foundations, and that is going very well, thankfully. It's very difficult for those who built a career on a particular theory to admit they were wrong. Over the next few decades with the advancement of AI predictions, eventually people will admit the error, I believe.
thank you
@@bbwt9991 I'll be overjoyed if your turn out to be right, but I'll be f*cking p*ssed off if you turn out to be wrong!
If the thermal energy doesn't travel all the way to Europe, where does that energy end up? Who would bake if Europe freezes?
much of it'd radiate out into space, but you'd get more frequent and severe storms in the areas surrounding the gulf.
when you notice how an AMOC collapse would affect europe and the US, it suddenly makes a whole lot more sense why CC is a european/american issue, and why their geopolitical rivals are ramping up carbon emissions as quickly as they can.
on the flip side, an AMOC shutdown would cover europe in snow and reverse ice loss from the north pole, that extra snow & ice would reflect thermal radiation and cool the planet, reversing the factors that caused the AMOC to shut down, and it'd eventually re-start.
for people living in europe it'd be a disaster of biblical proportions, but the only thing the rest of the world would notice is a sudden increase in europeans complaining.
Very interesting video. I will say that I don't think it is at all certain that glacial melt caused by human made climate change (as is implied) is enough to drastically diminish the gulf stream. For example, it was once thought that glacial melt at the end of the last Ice Age was the cause of the Younger Dryas event. However, it is now thought that this glacial melt water entering the Atlantic was not enough to cause the collapse of the gulf stream.
It is worth noting that the Holocene is an inter-glacial period so so if we are returning to glacial conditions it would be really hard to fight this process. Again I am not denying the massive influence that human activity has on the climate.
You can debate the reason, but the science is in that the AMOC has slowed.
@@legostud yes?, show me the hard evidence? And I emphasize the word hard.
@@JayJay-un3rp - www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/decades-data-changing-atlantic-circulation
the difference is this time we are in uncharted territory beyond the last interglacial period
@@j-rocgood7680 there was a slowdown in the emian period which warmer than today with less ice.
Perfect video to post during the winter, good bait 👍🏽
We had some really extreme cold winters in Europe back in the 80s and 70s. Then snow almost disappeared in the later decades
Hasn't the Gulf Stream been collapsing since at least 1960?
I expect they will be right one day.
As he has said, the AMOC is a system that takes centuries for the water to circumnavigate the oceans. And its collapsing isn't something we will see in one day, but in decades. In the 60's it was predicted that it could collapse, now we have found strong evidence that it is already weakening, and it may take until the 2070's or 2080's until it (if that's what will happen) stops.
Rather than complaining about the end of their anomalous luck, if people want to be warmer, they should move toward the equator. Or if they want to be colder, move toward the poles. Climates are available for all sorts of tastes, but you may need to move.
@@artichoke60045 eh.... That would be called colonization. Not sure a massive influx of European in Africa and the middle east would be met with enthusiasm
@@halfdangrafeldt7239 yet those populations are invading Europe by the day 🙄🙄🙄
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I remember being able to ice skate on our lakes here in holland. Now the winters are only grey, no snow, no ice. Just fog and grey. It is sad i cannot give my son the childhood i had. Building snow fortresses and ice skating with the whole neighborhood. It was a lot of fun. Sadly those days are over
Europeans will be wishing that global warming was real if the Gulf Stream collapses.
It will be the result from global warming, so Europeans would wish global warming wouldn’t be true.
The Gulf Stream is incomplete science. Europe has actually been gettin warmer because the atmosphere has been getting warmer, which more than compensates for any heat lost by the vastly overrated Gulf Stream factor.
@@tjlisson2816 Has Europe been getting warmer ?
With all the record snowfalls and extreme cold lately , many people would find that hard to believe.
Sahara Desert latitudes are the same as Australia latitudes. 😮
Hobart is in warmer latitudes than the south of France. 😅
1:10 also know as the jet stream I think 🤔
Those grey cue sheets inbetween with a upbeat song makes for a wild moodswing
As a Norwegian citizen on the literal top of the world this scared me as a kid, but the chances of the gulf switching is very low. If that happens I will move ASAP to the States
You mean the next ice age could be on its way?
Hmm, were all the previous ice ages preceded by a shift in the gulf stream? How would you prove/disprove that?
@@johnruckman2320 the gulf stream collapsing was probably the cause. The point is that this one is man-made and far too early in the timeline. We are now in a period of mild climate all over earth, hence the booming of humanity. Normally these periods will gradually turn into an ice-age. This time the transition is expected to be much faster so flora and fauna won't have time to adapt.
@@jasperbean1 is it gonna happen right now
According to Milankovitch Cycles (Earth's changing distances from the Sun which determine ice ages), we are at the end of an ice age, but temperatures should be stable for at least the next 1000 years or so, but in the last 50 years they've been rising 100 times faster than at any point in the history of human civilisation (last 10,000 years or so).
@@timothyrussell4445, as long as we remember the it's just theory/guessing. There was no recorded history that far back. It could have something to do with the axis tilt direction, or some other cycle (or combo thereof) to account for the ice ages.
@@jasperbean1The Gulf Stream won’t collapse because it is a wind-driven current powered by the Earth's rotation and the Coriolis effect, which directs its flow. The AMOC, on the other hand, is a thermohaline circulation consisting of multiple currents in the North Atlantic that transport heat further north. Most of Europe’s warmth comes from winds influenced by the Coriolis effect, while the thermohaline AMOC plays a crucial role in northern regions, preventing sea ice formation near areas like Norway.
people in siberia are doing just fine. i honestly wouldn't mind snowstorms all that much.
We are in an accelerating geomagnetic excursion.
This is a fact.
One side of Antarctica is freezing , and that is what they do not tell you.
The sahara will receive water that is explained here , the currents change, infact the entire jetstream is out of structure so to speak.
Thanks, very few know this as we have been programmed to believe that car exhaust somehow is the only thing that could affect weather.
@suzannekim2801 i highly recommend this channel, and @suspicious observers" .
Very good and clear view on the changes, on earth aswel as on the sun.
No it is not about car emission and cow farts ( cows do no fart, that is the insane joke )
In our face , the lies are pretty criminal .
Thanks for your feedback!
@@suzannekim2801 no thatss not the only thing cutin treess killing plants trashing oceans rives also killing the planet and we need to stop that
Great info for teaching
Over a decade ago, meteorologist Paul Douglas was speaking at a seminar for my employer. I asked him if global warming could suddenly shut off the Gulf Stream. He replied that if the Arctic Ocean warmed quickly enough, it was a distinct possibility.
Humanity’s greed will kill us all
You spelled ignorant wrong, Einstein.
Research has shown that temperatures rise before the CO2 levels increase. If they both occur in the same year and are sorted/grouped by year, then this would be hidden from observation.
Correct. Co2 is a lagging indicator not a leading indicator.
Then what drives the heating?
@ Something else; not one computer model has worked based on the CO2 assumption let alone been repeated as required by scientific research. Weather modification, haarp, desalination plants, other manmade pollution, or natural planetary cycles are good candidates.
Research done by fossil fuel companies.
Yeah, only if you ignore the studies that show it also goes the other way round.
We do not even have the abilty to manipulate weather on a large scale, let alone climates. HAARP doesn't do anything and why mention desalination plants? Pollution like soot only slowed global warming. It's not Mylankovic cycles either (WAY too slow), nor solar cycles. Between 1960-2020 the Sun was in the 2nd half of a 120 year cycle and instead of 0.4 C cooling like before, there was 1.1 C warming. That leaves the CO2 spike, 2.5x beyond the highs of at least the past 800,000 years. You just don't want to look at the elephant in the room (that's us).
But stopping pollution is expensive!
Maybe it's a cultural thing, but it always seems to us that Americans are petrified of Ice Ages, but don't seem so bothered about global warming and desertification. Difference is that an Ice Age is easily reversible, but runaway global warming would make the whole planet permanently uninhabitable. Different folks, different stokes I guess....
a HUGE problem i see nobody talking about. The thing plastic layer on top of the sea so the Water cant evaporate anymore so it cant dissepate the heat
the Earth is currently in a major ice age
has been for 2.6 million years
it’s called the Quaternary ice age
it’s the 5th major ice age in the planet’s 4.6 billion year existence
typically for our eon the planet is ice free, year round, even at the poles
99% of the last 245 million years were warmer than today
Yes, and Ukraine and other European grain belt countries currently feed a huge portion of that population. That will change in a big hurry if temperatures collapse the way the AMOC doomers predict.
@@readwriteteach If you cared about Ukraine, you wouldn't support a war there. The whole of Europe will suffer because it is time, not because of CO2 emissions.
@@kjnoahUkraine will conquer from the Caucasus to Moscow. All former Kievan Rus lands are Ukrainian and green Ukraine is also Ukrainian and Canada also has many Ukrainians so Canada is also rightful Ukraine
@@gregoryturk1275 🤣You so funny!
True, but how is this relevant to the changes that life today might experience the next century and beyond?
Immigrants can wear coats or return to their warm countries.
Thats your take from the video? Some of the Sub Saharan countries are so hot, they are becoming unlivable.
Hi Geoff, thank you for this warning, I heard it from other news already, and from comments to my channel about Energy Home DIY. I will use a screenshot at 6:10 for my video tomorrow, displaying also your channel name. Good work!
It's not even been two years and they were saying that Europe would heat up and the Global South would cool down.
In Scientific American this old theory was not only disproved, but had been so with many other studies. It's one of the oldest outdated theories out there. But like a zombie it keeps coming back.
The idea that we could magically maintain the Earth at the 1850 climate in permanent stasis is totally absurd. With or without us, the Earth is a dynamic system in constant flux.
Back in the 1970s, "Experts" were telling everyone that we were going to throughout a mini ice age after a couple of hard Winters.
Since then, we have had acid rain, rising sea levels, the hotest on record, the wettest on record, and record temperatures.
The next last thing to consider is a couple of volcanoes getting super excited for a month or two
A colder Northern Europe might reverse the current warming trend. It used to be the case that the Rhine River froze every winter back in the 1800s so it would be nice to be able to skate on it again.
Lack of the Gulf stream would be GOOD for Europe. Making Europe colder would counter the global warming.
It’s getting warmer I can count on one hand the amount I have seen proper snow in 20 years here in the uk
Living in the north of England I can gladly say we have been used to cold for decades
Europeans are going back to the Stone Age where they used firewood as fuel 😂
Don’t worry we the UK will stop it happening with Net Zero.
When the Arctic melts and water can pass freely over the top of the planet, I think that will more than compensate for any disadvantages of Gulf Stream changes...
It would be devine justice that for our hubris we get humbled.
Finland:
"oh great, it's monday whole week..."
Arctic Sea Ice extent shows 18 years of near zero trend , despite atmospheric CO2 increasing significantly in that time.
Oh love that kind of science. Tad bit in the tones of scary scify but still very informative.
Over the last 2 decades, UK summer highs have increased from 25C all the way to 38C, an increase of 13C. We have seen hotter, but that's exceptional. The UK has also seen significant increase in rainfall. 2 decades ago, April was largely wet, while much of the rest of the year was dryer. Over the last five years the UK has seen mostly rain from October to May, with fewer breaks in between. Summers have also become mixed - strong sun and high heat, or heavy rain with high heat. Flooding has also become very common, with Annual flooding across much of the UK. Dredging is no longer the answer, as the ground does not get enough time to dry out.
The other thing to consider is a possible Magnetic pole shift, North - South. That doesn't mean your compass will change direction suddenly, but rather the Earth's magnetic shield is shifting, which can also affect our weather systems.
The cooling of the Gulf Stream was big news in the 1970s, when the next ice was beginning because of a few years of harsh winter. The same predictions seen in this video were on everyone's mind. Next we'll be worrying about plate tectonics and continental drift.
It's cold as hell in Northern Ireland at the moment and then I see this.
@@adthgu6336 but hell is hot 🙃
As an amateur astronomer, what I want to know is whether we in the UK would have more clear nights.
I think a lot of people also don't think about if the gulf stream collapses, not only will Europe get colder and all the problems they will have, without the warm waters of the gulf leaving it will stay put. When warm water leaves the gulf, the gulf doesn't drain away, it it replaced by cooler water somewhere else. So the gulf will not cool off either and just get warmer and warmer. It has been showing that now and more hurricanes then ever before are forming in the gulf and because of the Earth's spin will always head straight to the US. It used to be a rarity a cloud cluster forming only in the gulf to a cat 5 hurricane but is becoming the norm now. The gulf has been warmer and warmer each year, maybe you're right this collapse already happened
I am 61yo, and when I was learning about the Gulf Stream in high school and college, I never even thought that it could end. More so, I never imagined that it could occur in my lifetime. 😱 Maybe, people will wake up after this occurs, I just hope we can solve it, and not have to wait 1000 years.