good stuff, I've been trading a variation of this for a little while and it's been pretty good. Interestingly, in the Oxford Capital Strategies long term study of hundreds of systems, there were only 2 strategies that actually worked. One was the Williams Smash Day strategies, the other was the Ross Hook.
Really? even the ORB (or Mark Fisher's ACD variation) didn't work? Jarrod here has tested a variation of the ORB on USDJPY, GPBJPY and the UK100, and they all had promising results. I love the Ross Hook but I haven't really tested it as I felt it was too simple. I hope Jarrod will do so and share with us soon. Let me head there and check the site well. Thanks for sharing too!
@@TheTransparentTrader What if you use the RR "0" exit when entering the trade in the direction of the trend and a RR of 1:1.5 when trading against the trend. To define the trend you could use an EMA (200), Parabolic SAR or SuperTrend.
Hi Jarrod, thanks for sharing yet another trading strategy. I really like your work and I´d like to suggest an approach that I have never seen you use before: Fixed risk/reward ratios. Instead of exit strategies like X number of bars, staying on the trade till contrary signal, etc, have you considered using risk/reward ratios? There are many ways of doing that. Examples: using the entry bar as benchmark (either the full candle range or just its body), or using the previous candle´s size as an input too, or even calculating an average candle size based on the previous candles Example: taking the candle range of the last X bars to determine the average candle size to be used as reference for the risk reward ratio. You can also use ATR or even moving averages to determine the stop-loss, and then multipying that stop loss by the risk/reward ratio, to determine the trade target. Finally: please consider using technical indicators such as the RSI or MACD, as part of your exit strategy. There is virtually no limit to the number of possible combinations. Good luck in your trades!
You're super as always. I have my trading software open side by side with your videos and code your strategies as you go through them. Thanks so much. Just for fun I put this strategy on corn futures and let me just say wow. The accuracy is incredible. The only modification I made was I created an independent lookback period for short and long trades. I think many markets act differently short and long. In my initial Smash Days testing on all my optimizations there is positive net profit. Similar to what you were discussing. But on a completely uncorrelated market!
Put two whiteboards side by side. This one "Smash days" and the one in "Mean Reversion Trading without Indicators". In both cases the criteria for each strategy is met, yet one tells you to go short, the other to go long 🤔 Perhaps there's an interesting lesson in this? Maybe trade management, rather than entry, is a more significant determining factor for successful outcomes? I'm not suggesting that's the case, but it's worthy of investigation.
Hi, I found your video because I wanted to understand Smash Days as I’m currently reading Larry Williams’ book. Thanks to you I understood it very well now! Very clear. Is it working on other markets (SP, Nasdaq 100…)? Thanks a lot!
Nice work Jarrod and thanks for sharing. Just as an idea how about a trailing stop method for exit? Something like n times ATR where n can be optimised? The other option could be trailing the stop 5 pips below the low for long (or above the high for short) if by the end of the day the trade is still in profit. Thanks again for sharing and please keep the videos coming.
Hi Jarrod, If smash day bar is set and the next day is a doji, do we move our buy order to the new closed bar or do we keep it at the original smash day bar? i.e. EURUSD Feb 07, 2023.
I have been getting some decent results with backtests when entering at the cross of the smash candle open instead of breaking high-low, so we can get more profit. No limit order though, but m30-h1 candle closes. So its like detecting daily pattern and entering at lower tf. Can you confirm it?
Gbpusd and eurusd. Its more aggresive approach and i exit at first profitable close. Daily Open line cross idea came to me from ICT studies, but seems to ad up nicely to Smash day daily pattern. I use metatrader 4 for testing, so i might be wrong.
I have a quick question that I have not really figured out yet. On the first profitable close approach, after X amount of days (assuming you are using a day delay) and you are not in profit, does it just run till it either reverses to profit or stays in till it hits the stop loss?
Yes, if after the minimum amount of days (day delay) the position is not in profit it is left open until checking again the next day. Eventually, you will either exit for profit, get a reverse entry signal, or be stopped out. Most of the time will be exiting into profit.
Quick question, what then happens if buy or selling daily bar closes without triggering orders? will the smash day bar still be valid with the 3rd day bar?
Championship trading is quite different to trading my own account. I am very focussed on limiting risk. Whereas in a championship the goal is maximum profits without blowing the account. I do plan to enter a championship one year.
This is a lot of my trading. I found your channel by doing a Larry Williams TH-cam search. The one I love best is the "hidden" smash day in a trending environment. GOLD!
good stuff, I've been trading a variation of this for a little while and it's been pretty good. Interestingly, in the Oxford Capital Strategies long term study of hundreds of systems, there were only 2 strategies that actually worked. One was the Williams Smash Day strategies, the other was the Ross Hook.
Thanks for sharing. I'll check out Ross Hook.
Really? even the ORB (or Mark Fisher's ACD variation) didn't work? Jarrod here has tested a variation of the ORB on USDJPY, GPBJPY and the UK100, and they all had promising results.
I love the Ross Hook but I haven't really tested it as I felt it was too simple. I hope Jarrod will do so and share with us soon.
Let me head there and check the site well.
Thanks for sharing too!
@@TheTransparentTrader What if you use the RR "0" exit when entering the trade in the direction of the trend and a RR of 1:1.5 when trading against the trend. To define the trend you could use an EMA (200), Parabolic SAR or SuperTrend.
the more I study this video the more I appreciate your work thanks
Hi Jarrod, thanks for sharing yet another trading strategy. I really like your work and I´d like to suggest an approach that I have never seen you use before: Fixed risk/reward ratios. Instead of exit strategies like X number of bars, staying on the trade till contrary signal, etc, have you considered using risk/reward ratios?
There are many ways of doing that. Examples: using the entry bar as benchmark (either the full candle range or just its body), or using the previous candle´s size as an input too, or even calculating an average candle size based on the previous candles Example: taking the candle range of the last X bars to determine the average candle size to be used as reference for the risk reward ratio.
You can also use ATR or even moving averages to determine the stop-loss, and then multipying that stop loss by the risk/reward ratio, to determine the trade target. Finally: please consider using technical indicators such as the RSI or MACD, as part of your exit strategy.
There is virtually no limit to the number of possible combinations. Good luck in your trades!
You're super as always. I have my trading software open side by side with your videos and code your strategies as you go through them. Thanks so much. Just for fun I put this strategy on corn futures and let me just say wow. The accuracy is incredible.
The only modification I made was I created an independent lookback period for short and long trades. I think many markets act differently short and long. In my initial Smash Days testing on all my optimizations there is positive net profit. Similar to what you were discussing. But on a completely uncorrelated market!
That's great! What trading software are you testing with? I don't think using independent long and short filters are a bad thing especially on corn.
Put two whiteboards side by side. This one "Smash days" and the one in "Mean Reversion Trading without Indicators". In both cases the criteria for each strategy is met, yet one tells you to go short, the other to go long 🤔 Perhaps there's an interesting lesson in this? Maybe trade management, rather than entry, is a more significant determining factor for successful outcomes? I'm not suggesting that's the case, but it's worthy of investigation.
Anticipation of the fractal formation. I like it!
Excellent video!
Really enjoyed the video, thank you for putting it together.
awesome strategy, good job Jarrod!
Wow! Fantastic, I gotta try it myself.
Great strategy! Thank you for sharing!
would it be possible for you to use normal Japanese candlesticks Jarrod?
could you please see if the smash bar method will work on different bars like 30 minute or 1hr etc.
Hi, I found your video because I wanted to understand Smash Days as I’m currently reading Larry Williams’ book. Thanks to you I understood it very well now! Very clear. Is it working on other markets (SP, Nasdaq 100…)? Thanks a lot!
I haven't tested those markets yet. Only the major FX pairs. Look out for a future video where I may test the indices.
Hi, thanks for nice vids.
Is it not bad to optimize all the time. Curve fitting? How do you think around that, when you look for the best.
Brgds Curre
Hello, does anyone know any indicator in tradingview for smash day ? Thanks
Nice work Jarrod and thanks for sharing. Just as an idea how about a trailing stop method for exit? Something like n times ATR where n can be optimised?
The other option could be trailing the stop 5 pips below the low for long (or above the high for short) if by the end of the day the trade is still in profit.
Thanks again for sharing and please keep the videos coming.
It's certainly worth trying a trailing stop!
Hi Jarrod, If smash day bar is set and the next day is a doji, do we move our buy order to the new closed bar or do we keep it at the original smash day bar? i.e. EURUSD Feb 07, 2023.
I have been getting some decent results with backtests when entering at the cross of the smash candle open instead of breaking high-low, so we can get more profit. No limit order though, but m30-h1 candle closes. So its like detecting daily pattern and entering at lower tf. Can you confirm it?
Interesting idea. I'll test that out, thanks! What market have you been testing?
Gbpusd and eurusd. Its more aggresive approach and i exit at first profitable close. Daily Open line cross idea came to me from ICT studies, but seems to ad up nicely to Smash day daily pattern. I use metatrader 4 for testing, so i might be wrong.
Ok, thanks again for the idea.
Is there a formula of this to be applied on an algo platform?
Happy New Year and what an Amazing video. Can you please also do a recap of best winning strategies for last year 🙏
Great suggestion!
I have a quick question that I have not really figured out yet. On the first profitable close approach, after X amount of days (assuming you are using a day delay) and you are not in profit, does it just run till it either reverses to profit or stays in till it hits the stop loss?
Yes, if after the minimum amount of days (day delay) the position is not in profit it is left open until checking again the next day. Eventually, you will either exit for profit, get a reverse entry signal, or be stopped out. Most of the time will be exiting into profit.
Quick question, what then happens if buy or selling daily bar closes without triggering orders? will the smash day bar still be valid with the 3rd day bar?
You missed that the close on smash day should be within the bottom or top 25 % of the confirmation candle
That would be a "hidden smash day". In this video I am demonstrating just the regular smash day pattern.
13k DD scares me a bit...
I have quastion is this strategy work so why we dont see you at trading championships???
Championship trading is quite different to trading my own account. I am very focussed on limiting risk. Whereas in a championship the goal is maximum profits without blowing the account. I do plan to enter a championship one year.
But this strategy would not bear sp500 for the same period of time
Show that w normal candles
Does it work on any other currency pair?
I haven't checked all the others yet. I don't suspect it will be quite as good as it is on EURUSD if it does though.
That's just a simple engulfing candle.
No😅
It does resemble that pattern with a daily candle you are less likely to suffer from noise during the day
This is a lot of my trading. I found your channel by doing a Larry Williams TH-cam search. The one I love best is the "hidden" smash day in a trending environment. GOLD!
Thanks for sharing! I tried hidden smash days on FX but they occur very rarely.
More confidence!!!!
What book was it by Larry Williams?
Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading.
@@TheTransparentTrader thanks!
Does it work on forex?