Rachel Reeves has to get her numbers right
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ต.ค. 2024
- Most of the data being used when discussing the economy is hopelessly incorrect. We even have up to six figures for the national debt in the UK - and all of them are wrong. It really is time for Rachel Reeves to start publishing decent data so we can have a proper economic debate in the UK.
#uk #money #economy #politics #government #tax #labour #starmer #keirstarmer #old #health #life #rachelreeves
ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY
Richard Murphy is Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’.
This video was edited by Thomas Murphy.
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This channel needs way more views. This is a national resource
If you'd like a more macro perspective listen to Whitney Webb.
@@mrstephenpariah Good suggestion, I’ve read One Nation Under Blackmail and got more than just information on macroeconomics. She does a thorough job of exposing the underworld and the overworld .
@@ryanseddon4800 Ah cool! I'm still looking for vol 1. There's a weird disconnect between commentators in different spaces who are all trying to battle against the same thing.
Nah, it's a thicko who can't tell the difference between Ian Smith in 1965 and Robert Mugabe in 1980.
Well put I agree 😊
Richard your research and comments are so much appreciated. Thank you so much. You are invaluable.
Thanks
Using dodgy accounting to justify more austerity and privatisation . Yay
When has taking the train companies back into public ownership been privatisation?
Never heard such an explanation before. Fascinating!
What a wonderful geek you are Richard! Will Reeves get to see this? We can only hope.
The ONS website makes me so angry. It’s so important that anyone can find this data.
I AGREE, we after all pay for them.
@@marklydon435 right. Literally every question I’ve ever asked the ONS site about economic reality in the UK has been either a dead end or a huge, huge slog. It’s an important missed opportunity to improve democracy in the UK by creating a more informed electorate.
Probably would be better having Vic Reeves as chancellor
He wouldn't let it lie
Savage
Or even Keanu Reeves.
@@WhoOneIs most excellent
Isn't Vic Reeves a Corbynite?
Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to.
It’s really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It’s a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Brian! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
Absolutely! Profits are possible, especially now, but complex transactions should be handled by experienced market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian C Nelson.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
We don’t have a debt crisis, we have a political crisis.
Very illuminating. Personally I've always thought that ONS employment statistics were misleading.
@@Hiram8866 anyone believing govt employment/unemployment statistics is a little gullible imo
I will have to watch it again. You are a national treasure, Richard. I learn so much with every video. This channel does not have attention it deserves. Comments and likes will push it up, hopefully. Much love and support
ONS - Obfuscation of National Statistics
Kinda like the Department of Stealth and Total Obscurity. Seems like a theme.
I would love to hear what financial adviser Martin Lewis and/or the BBC‘s Tim Harford has to say about all this. A conversation between all 3 of you would be amazing! Thank you, Richard, for your eye-opening videos.
Now THAT I would be late in to work for!
Fascinating as a person that struggled with numbers I found this explanation extremely helpful, and easy to follow. Thank you 👍
Brilliant
I despair tbh..we the people must stand against this globalisation government 😢
The average commenter throwing around terms like 'gLoBaLiZaTi!on!!' clearly doesn't even know what the words they're using mean.
Perhaps the country, the world, even, would be in a better state if there weren't quite so many deluded types out there, parroting idiotic nonsense and supporting politicians and grifters who are more than happy to exploit their ignorance and stupidity.
Brilliant! I played that twice as it was an astonishing, illuminating, bewildering and informative revelation of how the UK National Debt / GDP is infact a monetary laundering scheme. Thank you Prof!! 😊
One of the best videos I've watched on the economy recently. Will be sharing
Excellent! Why do they keep trying to hide the numbers? Same with the energy cap - they just talk about 'average bills'- I just want the unit rates. I can do the sums, thank you...
You have an extraordinary talent for making clear the nearly incomprehensible. While I'm sure some of your assertions about what is or is not a liability would be disputed (not that I have any problem with it!) the real point about figures and statistics is that to be of any use you need comparable data over time periods and to draw correct inferences from it. In practical terms (as you point out), whether or not pensions and cash are designated liabilities everything is still working as it should and therefore the correct inference is that the current 'debt' figure is not problematic.
The real question is whether they want to see the truth.
He's a Chartered Accountant and an Econimist - I'd love to see them try to dispute his analysis.
Surely, the question is whether they want the public to see the truth!
@@Grumpyolgit1 I'm afraid I had assumed the answer to that question was self-evident! I don't enjoy this level of cynicism but sadly I have increasingly found it justified.
@@RichardBergson My thoughts were more of a question than a statement (even though I used ! instead of ?). Are these people all so devious to think no one might be able to work it out, or are they really as stupid as they act?
There are a lot of smart people out here in the real world, but sometimes they need a good nudge before they realise what is happening under their noses!
Fascinating - this needs to be shared widely! Why don’t the govt want us to know this?
Please do an explainer on Council debt. I understand it is real. My local council is selling of 6 library buildings and leisure centres and much more. Thank you 🙏
I guess politicians don't get any of this. So someone's telling them what to think. Who, and what's in it for them?
This pleases me enormously. Thank you.
Well done Richard and well said.
Brilliant 👍⭐️Thank you 🙏
Great video, one of your best
You're far more sophisticated than I am. I call them crap because they are crap!
Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant
Thank you
Hiding is the action of those who are not telling the Truth!! We need open, transparent Governance not deliberate obstructions and confusion!
Rocket science is simpler!
Professor Murphy needs to be on Newsnight. This information needs a much wider audience. Thank you so much for such a clear explanation.
Thank you Richard. Can you send this video to the treasury, please?
Richard I avidly watch all of your videos to educate myself, last night we were doing a pub quiz and afterwards the subject of conversation drifted to politics and more specifically whether Gordon Brown was a good Chancellor or not and more specifically if he made the result of the 2008 crash better, worse or had no effect. I'd love to know what you think about this as when I read up on the subject the opinions of people seem to drift from one extreme to the other, and as a person who is a classic persuadable floating voter who likes to listen to debate and evidence I'd be intrigued on your thoughts considering all the current debate on Rachel Reeves stance and potential budget.
Excellent analysis as usual.
She sees more black holes than an astro physicist 😂
The only conclusion to be drawn: Knowledge is power and not to be easily shared.
Well done lad, the 1st to actually work it out, you deserve your million bonus
What are you talking about?
Thank you Richard. Your insights are appreciated
Does the OBR and independent institutes such as the IFS work with the correct figures when commenting about the state of the public finances?
I'm impressed with your research and the time and effort spent on getting to the true figures. The government clearly counts on our ignorance in order to gaslight us.
Your videos need a much wider audience
Interesting. If we accept that future pensions will always be paid out of current taxation but still need to provide for the future liability, shouldn't we do the same for all future healthcare costs of all UK nationals currently living and also all future educational costs of all UK children currently living? Why the inconsistency?
Because all the way back to 1945, the Welfare State has been disliked by the Conservatives, and the recent generation of conservatives are radical intent on destroying it. Since 1951 they've been resentful of it. Yet it took Margaret Thatcher to put a huge nail in its coffin. Google "The Rape of The National Insurance Fund". You will see that successive governments fiddled the figures.
dont forget income tax rates went down when university education became paid for. argueably not a smart move as such, unless we want a US pay for what you consume economy rather than a needs based funds flow economy
@@highpath4776 It is already full steam ahead for a US style economy. The needs of the public are almost irrelevant. The public are easily manipulated, healthcare privatisation is well underway, special economic zones and Freeport's are starting to pop up everywhere etc etc.
Be a 1st if she does, she couldn't even manage a credit card that was taken off her.
Thanks Richard 👍🏻
Thank you for giving us a compass to get out bearing in the ONS. These people do not know the difference between investments and expenses. They do not know the difference between private households/Banks or other companies/national budgets. Over 14 years of economic incompetence.
Brilliant 👏
Jeremy hunt lied to the OBR. Why no scrutiny of him?
A huge amount of assets is missing. What about works of art, land, property, overseas territories, public infrastructure etc etc etc ???
Why isn't Richard Murphy invited onto the Politics Live Programme to provide this interpretation of the current position of the UK governments lack of national debt.
Brilliant video! But if this is correct, why is the figure to service the debt (which doesn’t exist) so high? I don't get it.
Eye opening. No one get this. I don’t get it. Yet 😮
Politicians are far too arrogant or government is a confidence trick to do things differently I fear.
Brilliant, thanks, world spreadsheet day soon!
Request - bigger or more zoomed in tables in the next videos, please 🙏 I really don't care about a pretty border if I struggle to read the figures on my phone screen
Such a brilliant insight: well researched, thorough and poignant. Who would have thought that government defies accounting convention and regular maths for its own political ends? Who would have thought that government can't be bothered to keep its accounts up-to-date? Who would have expected such opacity and deliberate confusion to hide reality? We are led by charlatans. Being led by donkeys would be an improvement.
So how did they find a £22bn black hole? I hate the lie direct.
Thank you for unconfusing me with practical accountancy analysis
Richard as usual the clarity of your explanation is exceptional. I assume you are not the only economist who understands the obfuscation that the government and Bank of England undertake. Where are the other voices calling them out?
Unfortunately, they're not in the mainstream, or even in the UK. Mark Blyth, a Scottish Political Economist who is living and working in the US wrote an article in July informing the new Labour government that they could stop paying interest to the UK banks on their reserves held at the Bank of England, which is on track to be $286 billion a year by 2030. Those reserves are compulsory for the banks to have to be banks operating in the UK, so that interest is in actuality an ongoing subsidy to them. And that article was published in the American publication "Foreign Affairs". I picked it up because I've followed his work since he accurately predicted Trump’s win, and explained in clear language why the global economy was moribund, and why austerity was a dangerous trick which had failed every time and everywhere it had been tried. Perhaps Richard's observation is in the same camp.
@@CuriousCrow-mp4cxa complete mystery why this govt doesn't tackle this vast inequity. The banks caused the problems and then get subsidised. by the solution to their problem.
The banks aren't part of the problem. They are the problem.
Great explanation, dam lies and statistics , still in place at top level. Love your clarity and your candar. Please keep us in the picture, love what you are doing!
This budget is not about the economy it is about class warfare, retribution over people they hate .
I'm great full of your study
Oh dear. GRATEFUL is the word you're looking for. Its root word is Gratitude.
The USA Government has committed to spend $ 66 billion to extend/upgrade its rail infrastructure. The UK needs to similarly invest in the public services, including transport and the NHS
.....i.e., The Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill
Rail infrastructure in the US is bad to non existent in much of the country while enormous sums of money have been invested in roads, hence why the motor car is King and most good travel by road freight
The UK spends $200 billion a year on the NHS.
UK just pulled (bar HS2) a lot of rail and road plans
@@CharlesYeo-qs6nb The UK invests almost £200B a year in the health of its citizens and should be investing more. Sick people are less productive and you can't use market forces to disincentivise people from being sick by charging them more money when they are!
There is no debt when the financial system based upon fiat.
Could you do a video on your thoughts regarding MMT? As far as I can see MMT suggests that debt and deficit aren't a problem and should be used to increase growth. My instinct is that it is an excuse not to tax the rich first and foremost.
"Figures", not "numbers". "Numbers" is an American way of referring to figures.
This is the kind of accounting which helps the rich getting out of paying tax.
I'm watching the defence budget
Interesting. If so, why govts keep insisting on enforcing austerity, lower public investments/productivity and as a result take themselves out of power as people feel disillusioned?
@@v-4-vendetta well both Labour and Conservatives are neo liberal working on behalf of the establishment and big business..we've just swapped rosette colours
Austerity is a system for siphoning off money. The run it down then asset strip it model.
The Labour government has repeatedly stated that they won't enforce austerity, to the point where I'm tired of hearing it. Do you have a problem understanding the English language? Or are you simply hearing what you want to hear?
Because it gives them scope to do what they have decided already they want to do. Ideas are as powerful as viruses. They are as hard to kill as well. And for too long we've been complacent. A well-informed electorate is necessary for democracy to work properly, because we are all potentially affected by bad politics, and we see and experience their impact. So how our country is run is also our responsibility. Unfortunately, we have been lax, and our politicians are not well educated enough or intelligent enough to ask the right questions. If you know the YT channel Gary Stevenson's channel Gary's Economics you know that he's worked in the city and took a Master's degree in Economics at Oxford, and he wasn't impressed by their teaching or their expertise. And he clearly and comprehensively explains why. The vast majority of our politicians are Oxford graduates, and most are PPE - Philosophy, Politics, and Economics graduates. And that course is turning out people who haven't a scooby doo. Check Gary's channel out, as he explains what's been going on and why we need to use tax on assets more to stop the decline.
Yanis Varoufakis says that Austerity is another way of saying Class War.
I'm sure they know what you know. My concern is why they want to create the narrative that the govt are in dire straits. What possible reason do they have to make people believe they've run out of money? It's baffling to me.
Would like to see Richard sit down with Darren Jones and give him an education on this stuff. Let Darren argue the Treasury case and see if we can get some sense brought into this.
Look at their track record. They won’t get it right. Not even close. A few days of bad headlines and it will collapse like a house of cards
Reminds me of the Orwellian eternal war as a distraction and the famous 'chocolate ration'.
Doesn’t fill you with confidence knowing she as an account 😬🤣
Her role is not to get the numbers right, it is to say that we've run out of money where public services are concerned; lots of money to send arms/funds to Israeli though
It seems only the members of the ONS are invited on to the Politics Live Programme and no one is on the panel to challenge the IFS Think Tank's position.
I'm slightly confused about something - you're saying our assets outweigh our debts, but our assets include things like hospitals and roads that can't (or shouldn't) be sold. So how do they count against our debt?
Over my head + I think I nodded off✌😁
Very interesting Richard. Personally, I don't see how it would be wise to consider national assets as balancing debt given the former is not readily usable money available to pay wages etc. for the services that the government provides. I think that the governments are right to consider debt in terms of the current balance between outgoings and revenue through taxation.
For Assets there is a problem of realisation - you cannot get as much money back for a hospital as you think (excluding inflation gains), as well as the ongoing cost of servicing debt (interest) and maintaining assets ( roads, rail, govt buildings (many are leasehold) ). Hence the GENERAL thought that a year on year balanced budget is desirable. however for say benefit payments multiplier effects are often ignored + impact on local economies, our local cities and towns are a mess as general funding for say library (pays the librarians salaries) goes done, the salary doesnt get spent and the bid money gets asked for for new paving as a one off instead , it doesnt work as there is no ongoing money in the local economy that there was.
Is there a pop-up on opening the spreadsheet to “Beware the leopard”?
You're confusing the ONS and the local planning department 😉
Richard have you always known this? Or just discovered it following investigation into current public accounts? Very enlightening.
Horrific news with Alex salmond 😮, I hope you work with the SNP and independence groups Richard 🏴💙
A news report has started that reeves can't even fill in her own tax returns without help. Terrific qualification to be chancellor dont you think.
Many commentators say UK couldn't possibly rejoin EU because public debt is too high. Do we know if Europe countries follow the same accounting rules ie. are they comparing like for like?
Great video and well researched . But why don’t you get or invite someone on from a government source and get some responses . Would be a great opener for a lot of sheep that just follow the line in this country 👍😎
What is the reason given for not producing “proper” accounts?
I completely agree that it should be much easier to find the numbers that the Treasury use for GDP and national debt.
Just because we have national assets that cancel out the debt does not mean there is no debt crisis. The gov has issued bonds and have to pay interest on those bonds each year , the gov has to tax us to pay those bonds so it comes out of all our pockets to service that debt. The finances would be much better if we did not have to service the debt and taxation could therefore be lower if they did not exist in the first place.
There may not currently be a crisis but the gov is spending more money each year than it raises in tax, we are running in a deficit and have done so for many many years. Extrapolate and tell us when it will be a problem?
Currency notes and coins are a liability of Government as they are both a promise to pay. This promise is usually fulfilled by the Government accepting cash in settlement of a liability due from a person to Government. If cash were not shown as a liability, then the double entry accounting system would be broken when Government accepts cash in payment.
Brillant..but how to get this across to a population that needs a simple narrative.
Clearly she is likely to pick the lowest figure for national debt, it gives more wiggle room?
Wizard of Oz! How much is an asset worth, how valuable is a pound note. Let's hope Richard is right.
This was a great Analysis!!! In the face of whoever works and get payed at the Treasury or in Rachel Reeves' office.
When do they finally speak up!?!?
National debt comparison:
UK = £2,850 trillion equals €3,406 trillion (103 % of GDP)
France = €3,228 trillion (112% of GDP)
Germany = €2,460 trillion (63.6% of GDP)
I'm curious what the assets from France or Germany are
Successive UK governments seem to have only seen things in isolation, telling us retirees cost and are economically inactive. What a load of BS. Retirees 1)Are the bank of mom and dad when they can. 2)Look after grandkids or older relatives 3)Care homes/retirement homes are economic actors and participate in the GDP as they employ people (not just their staff, but also builders etc) etc. 4)keep a lot of companies afloat: who goes to the restaurant/on holiday etc, when a lot of the population is bound by school schedules?
Then: allegedly old people cost us a lot of money because of their health needs. Another crock of BS. People who become very old will eventually need care...maybe. But all statistics show very clearly that in order to get very old, you will have been in good health for a vey long time. People like my sadly departed, so much missed partner with 5 heart bypasses, diabetes and who lost a kidney to illness...They die like he did, in their early 70s or earlier. No, stats also show very clearly that these VERY old people have usually had good incomes=they paid taxes. They are also the very people most likely to have paid help in their old age: gardners, cleaning ladies, they are employers. They have also paid taxes on their earlier incomes, and pay taxes again if their retirement incomes are high. I have no problem with that, do not get me wrong: I want services to work. On the whole it is incredibly unfair, but low income people are in worse health, it starts before they retire and they die earlier.
Taking away the WFP from anybody earning less than 12000 is idiotic: they will get ill and cost more than the fuel payment. The same applies to the benefit cap on 2 kids.
In conclusion, there are 3 kinds of money people:
1)stockbrokers/investors, and some investment bankers. These are usually akin to gamblers who must make money for clients. My ex (not my dead partner) was one, he is a great guy but really, a semi-responsible gambler...but being responsible resulted in his getting disgusted with the system so that he quit. If you have seen the film "THe big short" there are two budding economists/stockbrokers who predict what happened...and manage to benefit in a fair fashion from it. However, instead of drawing conclusions and trying to change the system, they become full fledged investors and profit from it.
2)Accountants. Some bankers are more on the accountant side. All that matters is: at the bank or company level, over a set period, are we getting even or even making a profit. They do not look at how everybody else outside of the company is doing, do not care much about investment vs expenses. Big mistake: Ford was a fascist, but he knew that everything is connected, and his business would benefit if everybody had a good income and was able to buy his cars.
3)Economists: they should be able to see the bigger pictures. See how everything is linked. A truly good economy benefits everybody, and the world even. If not it is very fragile. Sadly, they can also be tainted/blinded by ideology, or they are not able to be more than a type 1) or a type 2) economic actor. The effing trickle down...if trickle down had ever worked, Victorian workers, farmers, servants would have been affluent.
Everyone in the comments saying you can't sell off schools and hospitals, etc, are massively missing the point. Of course you can, and they have been along with many other physical public assets. The value is in the land, not the current use.
Will this government give you a call about the solutions to the "black hole" you came up with so that they don't have to "make the difficult decisions" after all, I wonder...?
So if Richard’s analysis is correct, why was the Truss govt collapsed by a budget that would have increased govt borrowing?
If you add in index-linked, public sector, final salary pensions liabilities (take a bow Richard) the debt is more like £10 trillion.
The USA is investing $66 billion in a Bipartisan Rail Infrastructure Infrastructure Bill. Americans like to invest to obtain better economic returns. The UK should stop austerity and follow the USA to achieve the modal shift from road to rail.
[17.00] If they are going to include public sector pension liability, shouldn't they treat state pension liability in the same way. Its going to be a much bigger number with tens of millions of people already/due to receive a pension. The only difference I can see is that the PS sector pensions are locked in by contract, so 'difficult' to change while in theory a future government could scrap the state pension at any time (but that's wholly unrealistic in political terms).
Agree with your later comment about excluding both.
Don’t agree with a lot of your views on CGT ect, but very informative videos
The video states that we have assets..... Roads, hospitals etc. Those so called assets are a financial gain and are completely unsaleable, so can not be classed as assets. An asset is something that you can sell. Like gold... Which Gordon Brown did at the lowest valuation in 20 years.