IMO, Professor Damodaran is not only a very gifted mind and extraordinary human being for sharing his knowledge. But also one of the most didactic lecturers I've ever had the pleasure of listening to. I look forward to meeting him someday.
You are the reason I got into investing...started from square one, still have no idea what to buy, but I know what not to buy.thank you so much professor.. it's great pleasure and honor to listen to you
This is really *Very kind of you* Professor to prepare a follow up presentation on Zomato based on comments received & for sharing the DIY valuation model
When people question assumptions without understanding the significance of the crystal ball output (MC simulation), there you go, Professor simplifies it for you. Thanks for doing this!
I am lucky to be born in this era , every precious thing here is free of cost. That's the beauty of internet. Thank you sir. You are making life's of people's of my age (18) 🤗, who want to learn but can't afford it.
Though, I haven't understood a lot of what you said in the last half of your analysis, I still loved every bit of what and how you explained it. Since, I have known you, though not much long ago, I have become of fan of you and your lectures which has sense of realism in them and perhaps are the skills which I have always wanted to have. Thanks a lot sir, for being there and available to all of us :) and happy Independence Day to you.
@@Iamfalconsingh India is far more regulated then wallstreet in a sense that in wallstreet you can short more than free float market cap of a stock (gamestop) which is insane and illogical
Professor Damodaran, Zomato plans to cut delivery costs by using drones for delivery. Delivery costs is one of the biggest costs incurred by Zomato. What do you think about it's valuation If they do it successfully? (Or how does it change it's valuation).
The big plus for Zomato at the moment is they have large base & coverage compared to Swiggy and others!!! they can dominate at least for another couple of years and also take advantage of this Pandemic!! Once Amazon or other E Commerce which already have better network enters things might change rapidly so as Mr.Damodhar mention at the end if you know to ride the momentum you ride now get off soon when you find momentum is near to end!!! My reading is after an year or so the growth may not be sustainable as the competition gets tougher and we could ride the momentum now!!!
let 3 quarter pass, let Amazon have a 2 quarter run on food delivery and we will know how good the story of zomato was. It's not a question of good or bad story, it's about a promising story
Thanks much. I was hoping to use the numbers in the DIY spreadsheet - however I couldnt find IT services in the Global Industry Averages tab. Should I look at Computer Services instead?
Clear and data driven view on the valuation of Zomato. Most often we bring emotion and sentiments which really affect this process. Thanks for making it as simple as you have made it.
Prof your valuation is correct. Because of Market has over liquidity so every ipo getting unreasonable good response. A co which is 13 year old not never make money just a cash burner is never a good investment. Also it is not startup anymore. 13 year is enough to see capability of management.
It is wonderful what you are doing to raise awareness of fundamentals. You are giving us tools to think for ourselves in financial matters. Grateful for your engagement!
If you are going to criticize Aswath's assessment, it will be fair that you assess with your model and numbers what you yourself think they should be and publish it on this page so that the two methodologies can then be compared with fundamentals to be able to take a decision who has better foundations and reason. It is very easy to criticize without foundations, but very difficult to assess with sustainable foundations so that everyone can see and analyze it. Keep it up Aswath.
Zomato at 45. Is it a good buy at current price? You said its fair price is 41. That time situation was different. Now after this BlinkIt Deal & other events in last 1 year, will it be a good buy.. new video is needed. Waiting for it..
Is it possible the current valuation is due to the institutional holdings? Because of the larger slice which was offered to institutions and they are trying to hold the current valuation till there holding period is over
Great Valuations Sir... Now Zomato coming closer to your Valuation price (INR 72 or 1.8 times of your price).. Might correct more coming days Thanks Hanning Castelino Manama/Bahrain
Respected Sir The Element of Cause is Greed and so dicounting price for future 60 to 90 years and so the P E Further the parameters shout and indicates Book VALUE and PRICE TO BOOK VALUE how many times ONE is paying for a Rupee or Dollar same is made unseen versus foreseeeeeeeeen So FUNNNNNNNNNNNY Psycological Bias I Love your way of Teaching to learn to grassroot facts and factuals really PRECIOUS ONES Thanks Take Care Regards
Dr. Damodaran, thank you very much for your educational videos! In your view, do you think an individual investor can reliably outperform a total stock market index fund by using your methods of valuing companies?
All the speculation on cloud kitchens, is there any data available on where they are in the process? There’s 0 data on R&D expenses of the firm in the red herring prospectus.
Hi Prof, any chance you could do value the Square Afterpay deal ? Many seem to think the deal is overvalued. Would be interesting to see which story you think is most probable !
Zomato needs to be profitable in at least 5 years. Not manipulative profits but real profits. I don't see it making a profit in next 10 years if it will ever make a profit. In a country like India where rules and regulations change so much without proper recourse or redressal I don't see reason to risk investment when there are so many better investment opportunities.
Would it be possible for Zomato to follow the competitive dynamic in China whereby Meituan now dominates the food delivery market with 65% share (in a 2 player mkt)? Or would the Indian food delivery mkt be fragmented and localized networking effects (no dominant player)?
I feel that years back when market was heavily influenced by institutional investors, the decisions by them were made using formal and established valuation principles. But now, as more retail investors are having their influence, the investment decisions are mainly made on instincts and popularity of the stock/a person.
Thank you very much Professor, this video is easy to understand and instructional 👌 Hopefully, you can also provide valuation example of companies from other large emerging markets in the future (like Indonesia for example)
Zomato has also entered Health and Nutrition space. They are making and selling Health supplements. I personally don't find it much interesting, but it is worth considering.
Aswath Damodaran: "I am not Subin Pillai or Dean of Evaluation or Special Expert on Valuation and Valuation is not a complex subject" Yes you are! And Valuation is a complex subject requiring advanced mathematics skills(the infinite series).
Let us not forget, zomato doesn't deliver from any corner to any of the city. So if a hotel is getting huge delivery demand, they can employ their own boys to run those errands like in Delhi and cloud kitchens will soon become a concept every one will copy if its lucrative. All I am saying is that there is nothing unique about the zomato model. Food on Zomato is more expensive than what you would get if you actually walked into the restaurant. They are getting those revenues through constant discounts and cashbacks. Wonder how long that IPO money can last. There is also another company calleed Dunzo which is close to failing and most likely they will pivot to food delivery. That grocery delivery story is true fairy tale. There are already established players zomato wont make even make a whimper there.
zomato has already burnt more than 3500 crores before launching ipo and still not surprised about the burning of cash but little more surprised about stability of business model, i mean to ask how can a company be sustained in the near future where there is no or nothing sustainability in the margins?
Is Zomato planning to leverage it's platform to expand beyond just the restaurant/food delivery business? For example, they could go into online retail delivery, online payment platform and depending on Indian regulations, fintech? Otherwise, it is hard to justify current valuations only on restaurant delivery.
“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few” ― Shunryu Suzuki Investing is tough. Appreciate the quantitative part (and valuation to double decimal digits) but I guess only insights in business and domain expertise can help in zeroing down the options as the valuations range is large.
I want to do the same work that you do but with the help of data science. Maybe incorporating these qualitative aspects in data science could actually bring about a better valuation for companies.
Whatever you say, it is not going to ring in the ears of gurus who value zomato to 140+, euphoria might even take it past 200 to 500, but eventually it will meet its judgement day with reality.
Hey prof, don’t even have to bother about mentioning those who don’t understand valuation. Plzz don’t even talk about them. Let’s talk valuation alone.
![[DRIP] ‘Love, Maybe’ PREVIEW](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/U7hwHp95m1k/mqdefault.jpg)
"I'd rather be transparently wrong, than opaquely right !" - Aswath Damodaran.
Great thought about Feedback loop . Thanks Professor.
IMO, Professor Damodaran is not only a very gifted mind and extraordinary human being for sharing his knowledge. But also one of the most didactic lecturers I've ever had the pleasure of listening to. I look forward to meeting him someday.
You are the reason I got into investing...started from square one, still have no idea what to buy, but I know what not to buy.thank you so much professor.. it's great pleasure and honor to listen to you
This is really *Very kind of you* Professor to prepare a follow up presentation on Zomato based on comments received & for sharing the DIY valuation model
When people question assumptions without understanding the significance of the crystal ball output (MC simulation), there you go, Professor simplifies it for you. Thanks for doing this!
Sir ji you really are "Dronacharya of valuation" 🙏🙏
I am lucky to be born in this era , every precious thing here is free of cost. That's the beauty of internet. Thank you sir.
You are making life's of people's of my age (18) 🤗, who want to learn but can't afford it.
Though, I haven't understood a lot of what you said in the last half of your analysis, I still loved every bit of what and how you explained it. Since, I have known you, though not much long ago, I have become of fan of you and your lectures which has sense of realism in them and perhaps are the skills which I have always wanted to have. Thanks a lot sir, for being there and available to all of us :) and happy Independence Day to you.
Thank you so much for this session, Professor. It was fun and insightful!
Please cover Paytm as well before thier IPO!!👍
Waiting for zomato's quarterly numbers to come in and price to plummet :p
Hehehe, it is india they may manipulate certified with Big4 signs, anything is possible here
@@Iamfalconsingh No bro. Do not underestimate Sebi, I would say it's way more regulative than even SEC.
@@Iamfalconsingh India is far more regulated then wallstreet in a sense that in wallstreet you can short more than free float market cap of a stock (gamestop) which is insane and illogical
@@rishabhjain7543 they removed all the pro plans and made New proplans this will add up their revenue and makes profits.
Zomatos number out yesterday and result is bad but still price went up ...Hahahaha totally operator gaming in this stock
I need to let you know I respect you a lot and like your academic approach to investing.
Professor Damodaran, Zomato plans to cut delivery costs by using drones for delivery.
Delivery costs is one of the biggest costs incurred by Zomato.
What do you think about it's valuation If they do it successfully? (Or how does it change it's valuation).
Open to all criticism, excellent video as usual.
You are legend of valuation sir 🙏
Interesting dichotomy Mr Professor....Looking forward more insights from you
The big plus for Zomato at the moment is they have large base & coverage compared to Swiggy and others!!! they can dominate at least for another couple of years and also take advantage of this Pandemic!! Once Amazon or other E Commerce which already have better network enters things might change rapidly so as Mr.Damodhar mention at the end if you know to ride the momentum you ride now get off soon when you find momentum is near to end!!! My reading is after an year or so the growth may not be sustainable as the competition gets tougher and we could ride the momentum now!!!
let 3 quarter pass, let Amazon have a 2 quarter run on food delivery and we will know how good the story of zomato was. It's not a question of good or bad story, it's about a promising story
Thanks much. I was hoping to use the numbers in the DIY spreadsheet - however I couldnt find IT services in the Global Industry Averages tab. Should I look at Computer Services instead?
I think this is probably the best video on value investments . I like the idea of keeping things simple!!!
Clear and data driven view on the valuation of Zomato. Most often we bring emotion and sentiments which really affect this process. Thanks for making it as simple as you have made it.
Prof your valuation is correct. Because of Market has over liquidity so every ipo getting unreasonable good response. A co which is 13 year old not never make money just a cash burner is never a good investment. Also it is not startup anymore. 13 year is enough to see capability of management.
Professor , one of founder just took exit before the organisation getting profitable, your valuation hit him harder
Excellent Presention Prof
Thanks for giving us tools to backup our investment decisions.
Thank you for sharing all your vast knowledge!!
Thank you prof!
Prof, FYR Zomato has also recently entered the health and nutrition market - vitamins, proteins etc. Also, thanks for this amazing video!
drone delivery will be gamechanger for zomato as thier payload is highly suitable for drones.
Good presentation and very simple to understand, I am in that category who thinks it can gained Market share because of growth in Indian market
Did you make this video just as a case study or do you think that this company may grow in value?
It is wonderful what you are doing to raise awareness of fundamentals. You are giving us tools to think for ourselves in financial matters. Grateful for your engagement!
If you are going to criticize Aswath's assessment, it will be fair that you assess with your model and numbers what you yourself think they should be and publish it on this page so that the two methodologies can then be compared with fundamentals to be able to take a decision who has better foundations and reason. It is very easy to criticize without foundations, but very difficult to assess with sustainable foundations so that everyone can see and analyze it. Keep it up Aswath.
Zomato at 45. Is it a good buy at current price? You said its fair price is 41. That time situation was different. Now after this BlinkIt Deal & other events in last 1 year, will it be a good buy.. new video is needed. Waiting for it..
Is it possible the current valuation is due to the institutional holdings?
Because of the larger slice which was offered to institutions and they are trying to hold the current valuation till there holding period is over
Thank you so much for this session. it was super informative.
Thank you Professor for your insights! Greatly appreciated.
I could listen this man all day
Great Valuations Sir...
Now Zomato coming closer to your Valuation price (INR 72 or 1.8 times of your price).. Might correct more coming days
Thanks
Hanning Castelino
Manama/Bahrain
Professor，there is a Chinese food delivery company publicly listed on Hong kong market called Meituan（美团）
Respected Sir
The Element of Cause is Greed
and so dicounting price for future 60 to 90 years and so the P E
Further the parameters shout and indicates Book VALUE and PRICE TO BOOK VALUE how many times ONE is paying for a Rupee or Dollar same is made unseen versus foreseeeeeeeeen
So FUNNNNNNNNNNNY Psycological Bias
I Love your way of Teaching to learn to grassroot facts and factuals really PRECIOUS ONES
Thanks
Take Care
Regards
Dr. Damodaran, thank you very much for your educational videos! In your view, do you think an individual investor can reliably outperform a total stock market index fund by using your methods of valuing companies?
All the speculation on cloud kitchens, is there any data available on where they are in the process? There’s 0 data on R&D expenses of the firm in the red herring prospectus.
Brlliant once again Prof !!! Making it simple !!
Just one word!.. "Elegant "
Why did you delete the recently uploaded videos on descriptive statistics? We miss content from you sir :D
Was trading under 50 today, you are great professor 👍🏻
Hi Prof, any chance you could do value the Square Afterpay deal ? Many seem to think the deal is overvalued. Would be interesting to see which story you think is most probable !
Zomato needs to be profitable in at least 5 years. Not manipulative profits but real profits. I don't see it making a profit in next 10 years if it will ever make a profit. In a country like India where rules and regulations change so much without proper recourse or redressal I don't see reason to risk investment when there are so many better investment opportunities.
Would it be possible for Zomato to follow the competitive dynamic in China whereby Meituan now dominates the food delivery market with 65% share (in a 2 player mkt)? Or would the Indian food delivery mkt be fragmented and localized networking effects (no dominant player)?
I dare the ones who criticized valuation of zomato by prof damodaran to do the valuation of zomato and justify its price.
Haha, they can't. They have no idea. If they did, they would embarras themselves so hard.
You were damn right aswath it is trading from its all time high to down 59 rs
As always its fascinating to watch your videos Sir. Thanks a lot!
I got a few new perspectives to think about.
Arrived at same of 40, minsky hypothesis applicable to future prices?
I feel that years back when market was heavily influenced by institutional investors, the decisions by them were made using formal and established valuation principles. But now, as more retail investors are having their influence, the investment decisions are mainly made on instincts and popularity of the stock/a person.
The same way like bitcoin or the dogecoin being hyped by Elon musk ?
what's the difference between market share and revenue slice?
Respected Sir
Great
Thanks
Take Care
Regards
Thank you very much Professor, this video is easy to understand and instructional 👌
Hopefully, you can also provide valuation example of companies from other large emerging markets in the future (like Indonesia for example)
Thanks a lot sir for sharing your views
Zomato has also entered Health and Nutrition space. They are making and selling Health supplements. I personally don't find it much interesting, but it is worth considering.
Aswath Damodaran: "I am not Subin Pillai or Dean of Evaluation or Special Expert on Valuation and Valuation is not a complex subject"
Yes you are! And Valuation is a complex subject requiring advanced mathematics skills(the infinite series).
DIY valuation spreadsheet: www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/ZomatoDIY2021.xlsx
Thank you ... As usual great analysis ..
Thank you professor!
Let us not forget, zomato doesn't deliver from any corner to any of the city. So if a hotel is getting huge delivery demand, they can employ their own boys to run those errands like in Delhi and cloud kitchens will soon become a concept every one will copy if its lucrative. All I am saying is that there is nothing unique about the zomato model. Food on Zomato is more expensive than what you would get if you actually walked into the restaurant. They are getting those revenues through constant discounts and cashbacks. Wonder how long that IPO money can last.
There is also another company calleed Dunzo which is close to failing and most likely they will pivot to food delivery.
That grocery delivery story is true fairy tale. There are already established players zomato wont make even make a whimper there.
has anyone else could not open the spreadsheet links? some help would be greatly appreciated
As always Thank You, Proff.
Can anyone please tell me what software he is using?
zomato has already burnt more than 3500 crores before launching ipo and still not surprised about the burning of cash but little more surprised about stability of business model, i mean to ask how can a company be sustained in the near future where there is no or nothing sustainability in the margins?
Is Zomato planning to leverage it's platform to expand beyond just the restaurant/food delivery business? For example, they could go into online retail delivery, online payment platform and depending on Indian regulations, fintech? Otherwise, it is hard to justify current valuations only on restaurant delivery.
YES. YES YES. They're planning to enter restaurant business.
Thanks for a very valuable video! 💯💯
respected sir, what formula did you use to come to the final conclusion of valuation in each case, can you pls share it
Thanks prof please do lic india when its in 2022
thank you sir for your knowledge sharing
“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few”
― Shunryu Suzuki
Investing is tough. Appreciate the quantitative part (and valuation to double decimal digits) but I guess only insights in business and domain expertise can help in zeroing down the options as the valuations range is large.
I want to do the same work that you do but with the help of data science. Maybe incorporating these qualitative aspects in data science could actually bring about a better valuation for companies.
Please Do it Sir
Thanks
Regards
Waiting to buy around 20-30 😁😁😁
Great video as always
Thank you, Professor.
Markets can be biased longer than you expect.
can someone teach me how to use the google shared spreadsheet.
Thank you professor.
Sir please do analysis of Bajaj finance Ltd.
Thank you Professor.
Awesome sir!
Thank you sir
Listening to this now when Zomato has corrected 40% from its first day of trading..Lets see whats in store
Maybe Ketchup would be a better investment.
Thanks Prof.
even i dont see sustainability but these kids are out of their mind.
Thank you sir.
how often americans eat outside? indians not so much averages around weekly once!
less than 90 rupees (INR) now.. following the learning from this video, expecting another 40 percent decline.
corporate tax rate in india as of july 2022 is 22%
You was right sir zomato naw Rupee 41 par shair
Getting "404 not found" on the DIY valuation spreadsheet link :(
Try now.
@@AswathDamodaranonValuation Still not opening
@@AswathDamodaranonValuation still has the error . Also very insightful video, thank you.
No idea why. Try refreshing the page. It is working.
@@AswathDamodaranonValuation it is working fine for me, thanks dude!
Whatever you say, it is not going to ring in the ears of gurus who value zomato to 140+, euphoria might even take it past 200 to 500, but eventually it will meet its judgement day with reality.
Hey prof, don’t even have to bother about mentioning those who don’t understand valuation. Plzz don’t even talk about them. Let’s talk valuation alone.
The OG
Zomato trading at ₹47 today.