You are the best analyst I saw in public world who shares these numbers in detail. Finding your TH-cam channel is finding a treasure. Keep up the good work Emir, I admire your work.
Good update E loved the assessment on the so-called professional analysts. I was listening to Clay Finck "How to Spot Hidden Flags" on the Podcast." We study Billionaires, and the warnings about auditors and analysts were something that everyone should be leery about. They just don't do their homework at times and are swayed easily as you suggest in the insane pricing valuations of our group in this podcast. Thank again buddy for your update. Having coffee listening to you is cool.
Thanks! Analyst job isn't to make clients money, it's to make money for the firm. There are multiple approaches to this, for example "standing out" in order to get attention and make people curious about what you see that others aren't, or staying "in consensus" which is a self-fulfilling prophecy in order to "not be wrong" while also not being right. In the end, their incentives lie with the firm, not investors. That podcast is great, I recommend any Dev Kantesaria interview you can find, I think they got one together. He's my favorite superinvestor
Thanks Ryan! Check my seeking alpha-page for the most complete thoughts on businesses I have published research on. There are also videos on this channel covering various businesses that I track
I sold my Palantir yesterday at $54.10. The valuation made me sell and take profits. Now I will wait for a pullback and buy back in buying more shares.
What will you do if it goes to $60? The valuation is of course making me consider the option of selling at least a portion. My problem with that is we don't know where the top will be. Will pltr achieve 40% growth in Q4 2025 or 50% in 2026. We just don't know. I am up 542% so the stock could half and it would still be a market beating return. I'm in it for the long term but understand why selling makes sense if you see better short term opportunities.
@@MrLooke81 it's tempting to sell now, as we hit a new all time high, and we're all up pretty big at this point. I could sell 1,000 shares now and have an extra $54k in cash. But I keep asking myself... In 10 years, will I want those 1,000 shares back? And my answer is, yes. If I sell at $54 and try to buy back lower - I'll probably get greedy or chicken out on pulling the trigger. I'm holding. Analysts say 'overvalued'. I say 'expensive'. It will grow into it - as it's done over the last 8 quarters. The low-ball price targets keep rising... They will all miss it.
Nice stuff! Am a CFA and work in Finance. Just wondering why you don’t tinker with terminal growth (I could see nominal gdp + X% growth past 2033) and discount rates (i.e., execution risk). That would seem fair since all the value of palantir is in the future. Also, if you do a multiple based view on free cash flow and earnings with rising margins, the stock doesn’t look too expensive on 2027 and 2028 earnings especially if you believe this is a potential multi decade story
The reason I leave terminal growth anchored to the risk-free rate is because I believe it's impossible to gauge future economic growth. Economists can't get the next quarters worth of growth correct, let alone 10+ periods out. So what I do, similar to NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran, is that I use the growth that the market implies; the risk-free rate being the proxy for that. As for multiple approaches, I don't like to assign multiples because it introduces too much risk in bias. It's an easy way to tell a specific narrative for analysts to make up gaps in numbers (both up and down), and I don't like it at all.
This is the one company where you cannot look at it using the same lens as other companies. PE ratio doesn’t make sense. The company serves multiple industries. I would have been in a better position with PLTR if I understood the long ago
@ thanks for replying,how many billions of dollars of profits would you consider appropriate to hold for other opportunities..I have heard the same response before but no one seems to be able to quantify it.Even Apple pays some out occasionally
Salesforce CRM's market cap is more than double PLTR yet its revenue in 2024 was $35B. I don't think it's necessary for PLTR to be doing $70B to maintain high multiples. I think your projection of $30B~ is more plausible. I do think they will need to grow through some strategic acquisitions like SAP and CRM. Relying solely on organic growth will be tough.
You are the best analyst I saw in public world who shares these numbers in detail. Finding your TH-cam channel is finding a treasure. Keep up the good work Emir, I admire your work.
Thank you so much for the kind words!
Yea buddy! Party On with the Palantirians! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️
@@midwestcannabis Yayyy 🥂
Good update E loved the assessment on the so-called professional analysts. I was listening to Clay Finck "How to Spot Hidden Flags" on the Podcast." We study Billionaires, and the warnings about auditors and analysts were something that everyone should be leery about. They just don't do their homework at times and are swayed easily as you suggest in the insane pricing valuations of our group in this podcast. Thank again buddy for your update. Having coffee listening to you is cool.
Thanks! Analyst job isn't to make clients money, it's to make money for the firm. There are multiple approaches to this, for example "standing out" in order to get attention and make people curious about what you see that others aren't, or staying "in consensus" which is a self-fulfilling prophecy in order to "not be wrong" while also not being right. In the end, their incentives lie with the firm, not investors.
That podcast is great, I recommend any Dev Kantesaria interview you can find, I think they got one together. He's my favorite superinvestor
@@Em013L Thanks for the direction will be sure to check Mr. Kantesaria's interviews.
thank you Emir! your analysis is great- will continue to follow you for guidance on Palantir
@@HenSolo404 thank you, but not guidance, just information and research sharing!
Thanks for the break down! Always appreciate your contribution to the Weekly PLTR shows. What other stocks have you done deep dives on?
Thanks Ryan!
Check my seeking alpha-page for the most complete thoughts on businesses I have published research on. There are also videos on this channel covering various businesses that I track
I sold my Palantir yesterday at $54.10. The valuation made me sell and take profits. Now I will wait for a pullback and buy back in buying more shares.
What will you do if it goes to $60? The valuation is of course making me consider the option of selling at least a portion. My problem with that is we don't know where the top will be. Will pltr achieve 40% growth in Q4 2025 or 50% in 2026. We just don't know. I am up 542% so the stock could half and it would still be a market beating return. I'm in it for the long term but understand why selling makes sense if you see better short term opportunities.
@@MrLooke81 it's tempting to sell now, as we hit a new all time high, and we're all up pretty big at this point. I could sell 1,000 shares now and have an extra $54k in cash. But I keep asking myself... In 10 years, will I want those 1,000 shares back? And my answer is, yes. If I sell at $54 and try to buy back lower - I'll probably get greedy or chicken out on pulling the trigger. I'm holding. Analysts say 'overvalued'. I say 'expensive'. It will grow into it - as it's done over the last 8 quarters. The low-ball price targets keep rising... They will all miss it.
Hi Emir, Did the management hint that they may start charging or monetizing its AIP product? Thank you Emir
@@ylwong7751 yeah it has began, check my q3 review video! 🙏
They're using their own products to growth Palantir. COGS will stay constant if not reduce, though revenue will grow.
Nice stuff! Am a CFA and work in Finance. Just wondering why you don’t tinker with terminal growth (I could see nominal gdp + X% growth past 2033) and discount rates (i.e., execution risk). That would seem fair since all the value of palantir is in the future. Also, if you do a multiple based view on free cash flow and earnings with rising margins, the stock doesn’t look too expensive on 2027 and 2028 earnings especially if you believe this is a potential multi decade story
The reason I leave terminal growth anchored to the risk-free rate is because I believe it's impossible to gauge future economic growth. Economists can't get the next quarters worth of growth correct, let alone 10+ periods out. So what I do, similar to NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran, is that I use the growth that the market implies; the risk-free rate being the proxy for that.
As for multiple approaches, I don't like to assign multiples because it introduces too much risk in bias. It's an easy way to tell a specific narrative for analysts to make up gaps in numbers (both up and down), and I don't like it at all.
This is the one company where you cannot look at it using the same lens as other companies. PE ratio doesn’t make sense. The company serves multiple industries. I would have been in a better position with PLTR if I understood the long ago
@@dialac1 i never look at pricing metrics 😂
What are the top reasons for Palantir to hold onto their cash.I want dividends
@@SECULARDEVELOPMENT yield and for leveraging growth when its opportunistic. I dont expect dividends until maturity, a decade or two at least
@ thanks for replying,how many billions of dollars of profits would you consider appropriate to hold for other opportunities..I have heard the same response before but no one seems to be able to quantify it.Even Apple pays some out occasionally
@ its not about a total amount for me
Salesforce CRM's market cap is more than double PLTR yet its revenue in 2024 was $35B. I don't think it's necessary for PLTR to be doing $70B to maintain high multiples. I think your projection of $30B~ is more plausible. I do think they will need to grow through some strategic acquisitions like SAP and CRM. Relying solely on organic growth will be tough.
I don’t think Dan publishes his real data and really doesn’t want to share his sources ;)
@@duluthdjs2588 could be, but it questions the integrity of the wedbush securities equity research report to clients
Interesting that the Reverse DFC for Ives lands precisely at Karp's original guidance of 4.5Bn in 2025.
Will it happen? I believe it's not out of the question!
@@Em013L Very plausible actually, but Karp wisened up on the underpromise/overdeliver game of Wall Street.