Brexit: Britain's economy hasn't recovered
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 ก.พ. 2025
- “We’ve lost lost more in tax revenue as a result of less economic activity than we were paying in terms of the subscription fee.”
Britain’s lost out economically as a result of Brexit, says David Henig, UK Director of European Centre For International Political Economy.
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They made a mess of the bed and now the rest of us have to sleep in it.
Brexiteers still sounding like communists: "it's not the idea that's the problem, it just hasn't been done properly". In other words, completely divorced from reality.
Might you accept that there are serious problems with the EU model and has been for at least 15 years? Compared to the US the economy has been a disaster.
The Draghi report is pretty damning and could have been written by Farage.
We'll see what happens in the future but I'm fairly confident the UK will do as well as the EU (or as badly!). For now I'm happy that we're not involved with the likes of Orban, AFD, Le Pen, etc.
Cue the: "Yeah but Brexit just wasn't implemented correctly!" hollow rhetoric. What's funny: no-one claiming this narrative is able to elaborate and explain how exactly Brexit should have been implemented, in order for it to finally become a success. Brexiters also really like moving goalposts: from 'immediate benefits!' to 'it'll take 50 years for the benefits to become apparent'.
Re-industrialisation would be a start
People have explained what they'd do differently though...
There's an easy way to look at this... The EU is a highly bureaucratic, high regulation, high tax, protectionist block. The UK economy would obviously have significant advantages over the EU were it to break away from some of this, as Ireland did with tax. For example, the UK could leverage a significant regulatory advantage over the EU by cutting red tape which makes the EU economy unappealing for certain types of investments. We could also work on forming closer trading relationships with other parts of the world like the US.
The issue we have is that politicians in the UK generally share the same high tax, high regulation, Europe-first mindset of a lot of European leaders. And I'm not saying this is wrong, but it's just very hard to leverage any advantage of being out of the EU when your leaders basically want to still be in the EU and refuse to break away from the same old European regulatory and trading environment.
I also think we over empathise the economics arguments. Brexit absolutely could have delivered lower net-migration numbers, which I suspect is why the majority of Brits voted Brexit. This might have come with some economic cost, but again, I suspect one most Brits would have been happy with this if it meant more control over migration numbers. But instead our politicians increased migration because they fundamentally don't share the perspective of the average Brexit voter, so instead they looked for ways to keep net-migration high despite the massive drop off in EU-migration post-Brexit.
@@kryp879 This is nothing but economic nonsense and lies
Michael_from_EU-Germany,
retired Lecturer for national and international economics
@@kryp879 I hope this guy who celebrated with Champagne and kippers managed to find a waiter.
@@kryp879 I am sorry, but again that was just pure sloganeering. And for your information the US is much more bureaucratic because it has 50 regulatory jurisdictions without mutual recognition of regulations and about 700 regulatory agencies. Your ideas are based on fantasies of how things are or could be. Blaming others for not making your fantasies real is childish.
Dr. Sam Hartford (Politics and International Relations)
I prefer the Alistair Campbell school of Brexit debate that berates these charlatans like Gwain for outright lies and subterfuge…
I've worked with British companies in launching products and services in overseas markets since 2008. Please point to the number of UK export succeses in the last 20 years that were British owned, managed and made in the UK. Brits don't invest in Brits. Frankly it's stupid. In or out of the EU doesn't actually fix anything.
Snake oil and lies, only benefit it got rid of the Whigs , sorry Tories get them mixed up in the footnotes of History
Promises made on.leaving.
Promises broken..
Brexit disaster
Brexit mess
Brexit should never have happened! Yes, our relationship with the EU wasn't perfect! But what we have now is much, much worse (and getting messier by the day) in a spiral of decline! The "Will of the People" is as befuddled today as it was in 2016, and the EU wouldn't have us back under these conditions!
Services are still free Trade with the EU. That's why they are still not down (although I still have potential clients refusing to deal with UK companies as a blanket policy)
The EUs negotiators were better, sure; David Davis arrived with no paperwork.
I consider the quitling to be a traitor.
It's quite fun to compare the remarks of David Henig about the arguable economic osts of Brexit (probably quite trivial looking at the numbers) and the forecasts of the UK Treasury in 2016. Were these ever really a honest estimate, given how spectacularly wrong they were?
"The Immediate Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," UK Treasury 2016
1. Shock Scenario:
GDP Impact: A contraction of 3.6% over two years.
Job Losses: An estimated increase in unemployment by around 500,000.
House Prices: A decline of approximately 10%.
2. Severe Shock Scenario:
GDP Impact: A contraction of 6% over two years.
Job Losses: An estimated increase in unemployment by around 820,000.
House Prices: A decline of approximately 18%.
That was not what the academics said, they all talked about long-term decline of about 2-8% depending on the deal etc. That was the Osborne strategy of scaring people based on the scenario that the Bank of England would not have stepped in to stabilise the pound as it started its free fall after the referendum result.
As a direct result of the vote you were made about 15% poorer vis a vis other countries over one day. That's one of the reasons for the standard of living crisis in the UK
@@samhartford8677 The UK pound is back at the level it was in 2014. Presumably you would argue the UK was correct to leave if it had been that low while we were in?
If I remember the IMF warned the pound was overvalued prior to the referendum.
GBP/EUR Exchange rates
Dec 24: 1.21
Mar 2020: 1.10
Oct 2016: 109
Nov 2014: 1.42
Dec 2014: 1.26
Jan 2014: 1.20
Dec 2008: 1.02
Just checked and it was May 2016 that the IMF warned that sterling was 5-15% overvalued based on the UK's large current account deficit at the time.
That current account deficit, btw, was the result of being in the single market.
UK trade deficit with EU
2000: £6.7 billion.
2005: 34.9 billion.
2010: £30.4 billion
2015: £71.4 billion
2019: £81.2 billion (£101 billion in 2024 terms)
I'd be willing to through all that again if the prize was to be part of the EU again. The sooner we start the better.
No, you cannot join EU regulators. Try joining US regulators first and see what they say about the UK having a say over US internal decisions. My guess: unconstitutional.
Enjoy your kippers; shame more don’t eat them and rescue our fishing industry.
We dont want uk in the european unium.
If you want to be a rule taker, the comun Market is open to the uk, for the correct fee.
See u
?? What are you talking about?
Michael_from_EU-Germany,
retired Lecturer for national and international economics
You are writing like someone who suffers from a stroke & frankly, you argue equally weakly.
@@Michael_from_EU_Germany The UK prevented so many policies that would have helped the Eurozone that it's not wise to have them back in Brussels unless they adopt the euro on day one. And they won't. They are still fantasising about the Swiss deal without freedom of movement except for artists. They are not a team player. They still want better membership terms than Germany or France.
@ 100% true
@ I appreciate his comment. Obviously he does not speak a foreign language fluently. Does not make his thinking wrong.
Why do we still have to click "Yes, I agree to cookies" when visiting a new website?
It was an EU directive (EU ePrivacy Directive (2002/58/EC)), which our government chose not to end when we left the European Union. The government never wanted to leave and never really tried to make a success of it.
The benefits would have been immediate and far reaching, but Remainers will never accept that. The vaccine rollout being the most recent example of course.
And finally, many of us were prepared to accept that the economy would suffer, since we viewed the European Union as an inalienable attack on the sovereignty of the United Kingdom.
Would you rather companies just agreed to share your cookies on your behalf? I quite like having the choice to be honest.
Mate look I’m afraid to say at that stage, it’s crystal clear that you are still completely dreaming. About what I don’t know but whatever batshit scheme you pushed and continue to push, it literally lives only in your head. Would be nice if you woke up and started observing reality
Brexit Means Brexit - The Will of the People MUST be respected!
The People was lied to and conned. Only 30% of the electorate believe now that BREXIT was a good idea.
48% didn't vote for it.
There was very little pro EU in the media at the time. I had several pro Brexit leaflets through my letterbox, not one for remain. Even with stuff in newspapers for years slagging EU off, (I recall carrots being the wrong shape for EU was front page news) still 48% wanted to remain.
It was about as much the will of the people, as the outsourcing of NHS services to for profit companies to gradually privatise NHS into a US healthcare model is the will of the people.
@@stephena1196 You're quite right. The right-wing press like the Daily Fail and the Murdoch newspapers, Times and Sun, plus the Express and Daily Telegraph were all anti-EU. There was a lot of misinformation as well as disinformation. There is however a BREXIT benefit - the Tories got slung out on their ear at the last GE. The recent polls show that only 30% of the electorate think that BREXIT was a success. BREXIT is the worse thing to happen to our country since the second World War. Winston Churchill must be turning in his grave.
@@stephena1196Spot on.
The country voted for Brexit. The Conservative Party delivered the negotiated Brexit that has knocked 4 - 6% off GDP for now and every year going forward.
How Rachel from Accounts would love to find 4 - 6% growth in GDP!