Crash or a Boom? A Special Two-Week Series
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Part 1: What Does Raoul See Coming?
In the first installment of our new series, "Crash Or Boom? How To Profit From What's Coming..." we dive into Raoul’s enlightening outlook for macro and markets in the next 18 months.
There’s been a lot of noise in macro this past year - a soft landing, a hard landing, a coming AI economic boom? An all-star lineup of special guests shows what they see coming for the economy and financial markets. In this presentation, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal walks us through what the macroeconomic data is signaling… and how we can profit. Recorded on September 4, 2023.
CHAPTERS
1 Growth Outlook 02:34
2 Inflation Outlook 08:07
3 Concern #1: Credit Crunch 0:12:27
4 Concern #2: Recession 0:15:41
5 Debasement = Everything 0:20:21
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CHAPTERS
1 Growth Outlook 02:34
2 Inflation Outlook 08:07
3 Concern #1: Credit Crunch 0:12:27
4 Concern #2: Recession 0:15:41
5 Debasement = Everything 0:20:21
you can agree or disagree with Raoul's views but you can't deny that he exposes his thesis very succinctly and convincingly.
Grifters usually do
This guy always has a reason why things did what they did. But at the moment he was talking his book . Don't get me wrong he has few useful points but most is bs
@@a40anda47that’s a bit strong. Begs the question,why you watching.
No, he 's not. His thesis is easily debunked. The only thing he believes is liquidity and currency debasement. He fails to understand the consequences or downplays them
He is always wrong. When ETH was at $4900, he was buying 10K Strike Price calls. lol...
Absolutely unreal amounts of information portrayed here. Thanks so much Raoul and team for delivering these insights and a master class in macro investing all at once. Got my tech and crypto surfboard ready to ride the liquidity wave. Sobering content on the debasement of currency and the 'game' being played. What a realization...
Glad you enjoyed it!
‘You need to understand which part of the cycle drives assets prices, and which part drives the Federal reserve’ Raoul you absolute beaut, thanks for this video!
Thanks for watching!
RAOUL ABSOLUTELY THE BEST!!
Really interesting Raoul. Nicely put together and well presented to keep the narrative flowing.
Would love to see the Crypto side of RV benefit from a 'where are we now' / 'where are we going to be in a years time' video.
He explained that in this video. When he says, "more cowbell" and "all assets are going to rise as the FED monetizes the debt" that specifically means crypto will go higher in the coming years, if his thesis plays out. That's why his largest investment is crypto.
tldr: Raoul is permabull, all is fine, go all in
So nothing has changed in years 😅
ETH is the greatest trade.
👏
What keeps me paying attention is that he's been right despite being a permabull
Just long term outlook.
Thanks for the well reasoned analysis, Raoul!
The only sure bet is going LONG on Bitcoin. A few alts have potential but the long game is the best game on Bitcoin.
Why does everyone focus on unemployment rate and not on labor force participation, right :-)
A larg number of data are cooked :-)
Because they'd have to acknowledge a large % of the working-aged population has already "quiet quit" a la China's "lying down sideways".
Thank you, Raoul. Vastly better thought out than any of my own theses.
Thanks for watching!
Great work, the monologue was clear, was superb
Thanks a lot!
Markets are forward looking but they never bottom before the recession starts. The idea that they bottomed 1yr plus before a recession starts is ludicrous.
Unless we are in a new paradigm where the govnmt looks ahead and steers away
Always fabulous content, thanks.
Amazing that we can listen to this info for free…and it’s so accessible…..
So grateful for these videos, thank you for giving this information for free. It's worth a lot.
That’s a great summation of current markets Raul.. thanks!
Feel like we’ve been in the “Trough of the cycle” all my life Raoul
Very generous of you to share so much knowledge. 🙏
Thanks for this. Just wondering how sovereign defaults play into things going forward or even if it is something worth considering?
Thank you for such great in depth analysis..
Our pleasure!
So much great information 👌🏻
Thanks for watching!
A brilliant discussion Raoul, thankyou. Please keep these gems coming in future.
As always legendary explanation en predictions from Raoul❤
Appreciate it!
It was a learning economy class!
Thank you 🙏🏼
Thanks for watching!
Love this outlook and easy to understand breakdown. Fantastic
Thank you so much Raoul, appreciate always.
Thanks for watching!
Really great points. Well documented. I'm currently reading the Creature of Jekyll Island and it's such an eye-opener of how the FED operates.
Excellent macro lesson Raoul
Thanks for keeping’ it Real!!
So much value in this video.
Great content Rahul. Suppose risk as always is a black swan even, what are the unknown unknowns the mrkt has not priced in? Geopolitics? Commercial real estate refi's seem to something all are talking about.
Hey Raul...would you be able to explain the concept of "monetizing debt" a little more for my smooth brain? Incredible video my friend, cheers and thank you!
It means the Fed prints money to pay debt instead of easing taxes.
Raising
strong video tbh nice work Raoul one of your best.
Much appreciated
Great point of view.
Well reasoned. Thank you.
Thanks for watching!
Thank you brother!
Thanks for watching!
I've learned so much from Raoul and the RV channel. Love the different views on macro.
Great to hear!
Always awesome
Thank you! Cheers!
a true masterclass. will be rewatching. your explanation of this thesis gets better with time.
Thanks for watching!
101 reaction it is. Also the number of my favorite concert ever, Depeche Mode - 101 Live at The Rose Bowl, Pasadena ❤
Raoul, as always great to listen to your vision on all the macro developments!
What abt your bonds
Thank you for everything
The biggest part of the drop in the GFC was only a 4 week period too pretty much. We can see the escalator up, but nobody ever really sees the elevator down.
What is the projection for gold? Is it part of the hard assets that will do well? Will it be a same case like in the 70s and 80s where gold was devalued? Thank you 🙏
respect the view and very well presented. Don't you think the market is now pricing in a boom, that's seemingly impossible, when you have such a weak consumer and a banking collapse staring in front of you.
Great Insights Raoul
Thank you. So much, man.
An MBA class, thanks Ral
Excellent show ! Thank you 👍is it a bet , to add a new word to the dictionary ? (Cowbell ) as Quiz was
thanks Raoul
Exactly like it's described in the book 😂 rolling over the debt. You have an amazing understanding of all the mechanics.
Great research understanding lags cowbell soon 💰
NEVER NEVER NEVER apologize for your wife pinging you.
Thanks
Raoul is quite straight
THANKS FOR THAT WISDOM. IM TOTALLY WITH YOU BUT: WHY ARE THERE SOOOO MANY ANALISTS THAT HAVE MANY MANY YEARS OF EXP. AND THEY SEE THE CRASH... WHT DONT THEY SEE WHAT YOU SEE:
Would love to hear Raoul on Wealthion
That was very convincing, we'll see who is or isn't batshit crazy. Please bring Ray Dalio as a guest!!!
That was a great video!
Japan seems to be on this road the longest, how do you think it pans out for them?
Roual, at this point to you prefer TLT or new gov. issuance long term bond. Thanks,
It takes a lot of efforts. Thank you so much for that
Thanks for watching!
It’s going to pick up soon
Printing more money will not work for the real economy - Raol is totally wrong
Why are you using unadjusted 2023 CPI knowing that its a totally sandbagged metric?
How can one print more of the same, the last three years the amount of money supply increased by 40% :-)
Janet yellen is 78 years old .
“Not another financial crisis in our lifetime “
means her lifetime or a baby born in 2017 life time ?
I’d it’s her she’s pretty old …..
А можешь сделать отдельный видос по мем-коинам?)
What does monetize the interest payments made. Does It just mean pay?
Inject liquidity in the market/economy .
Easiest way to think of what monetizing interest payments are, is paying a credit card with a credit card, you are paying debt with more debt which you can defer for a set period of time, when that time is up, paying that debt with more debt, endlessly. No debt is actually being paid, only the interest to balance the books, of which new debt has been created at that moment of settlement, but deferred again for a set period of time. Hope this helps.
🔥🔥🔥
If Raoul had a rural Alabama accent nobody would listen to him
😂😂😂
liquidity yes, but don't forget fear and greed.
Crash or Boom is an eye-carching headline and the macro data & spreadsheets are well presented, however, except for the magnificent seven tec stocks the broader stock market is going sideways for months not making new highs ratehr new lows, oil prices will increase inflation and hurt industrial manufacturing on a worldwide basis, interest rates higher for longer and central banks keep QT reducing their balance sheets so over all far from a bullish goldy locks scenario of the past couple of years.
Thanks for watching!
The economy is not the stock market. The debt cycle will continue to roll until trough, to new beginning. Crash happens when the economy hits the wall, likely by the second Q next year. 🦃
Clickbait extraordinaire. Why crash or boom? Why not sideways softly? Sideways volatile? Slowly down? Slow grind up?
Lastly it worries me he keeps mentioning Janet yellen as a great source. Anyone who says markets can’t crash is crazy.
Raoul: GMI discovered that gov is monetizing the rolled over interest payments!
Michael Howell: …🤨
🎉
Just getting here. GM fellow crypto nerds 🤓
umm liquidity is drying up... you can see it in bitcoin
you can see it in M2
What about a low unemployment rate and a huge increase in shoplifting, no tunnel vision but real vision :-)
Every company is slashing expenses and laying off expendable employees to shore up their annual earnings. What's going to happen next year?
The shoplifting is an indication of opioid addiction. Sad.
Whats up with the barber chair
I’m just happy you don’t say climate change. Tired of that lie, such a red flag.
QE is not money printing it does not inflate asset prices, asset prices were inflated by fiscal policy which is likely to be absent this time. You only have to look at Japan over the past 30 years to know that QE does not generate inflation or nominal growth and does not inflate asset prices. QE can lower interest rates but it can't make banks lend money, the banking system is very close to collapse with regional banks having serious liquidity issues. The you have the housing crash, car price crash, and the whole world turning down at the same time. China is in a depression already and will lead the world down, the Yuan is about to break because they are out of dollars. All this points to the dollar screaming higher and assets prices falling. Betting on a bull in crypto sounds like you are doubling up your roulette bet to try and recoup your losses, the difference is that roulette is about 50:50 but your bet is 99:1.
When Paul will stop promoting scammers and scam coins?
Is this a fancy way of being a crypto permabull?
Brilliant Discours. Imho Biggest bullmarket ever coming in than biggest ever crash 2026 - 2030. All cycles that rule matter coinciding - including the esoteric and occult.
None of the two camps is right.
Just look at the history......The fed will never drop their fed funds rate before the bubble is popping..... economic stimulation only comes later 1-2 years after 2026
you are priceless bro
There is already to much liquidity, there are no more Dodo bones left to buy for millions of dollars. All the Whisky bottles are sold out, no new bitcoin coins, while nobody wants to sell etc :-)
Nothing to see here. Crypto guys go all in pls...
You’re not Chad only a blind man can’t see what’s right in front of him
Anyone that's says "Probably" too many times... is definitively unsure of what's to come.
Anyone who pretends they know for sure is lying so you should appreciate the honesty.
@@Jeff-dx2cmgood point
Meat on the bone feeds the appetite
If he's right, I'm going to be really rich.
22min in the video - the next 18 months are going to be rainbow and puppies. Really???
Started with a lie - wasn’t bullish at the end of last year - he predicted a recession and lagging indicators…..
Executive Summary: Raoul is a shameless grifting shill PoS. Buy Real Vision, go all in, up-only.
Jerome VOLCKER……