MASSIVE Price Swings & Canada's Extend and Pretend Plan Continues, 2024 Canadian Real Estate Market
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 เม.ย. 2024
- We could be at 2017 prices within 12 months given the volatility in today's housing market. I analyze the national real estate data using technical analysis tools traders use including Fibonacci Retracement, Bearish Pennant, and Mean Reversion Calculations to pinpoint our housing price targets.
Links/references:
www.infrastructure.gc.ca/hous...
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I will be fine with 2017 prices, its better than right now. In 1979 to 1982 prices dropped by 50% I silently hope we have that again happening
2017 prices are definitely possible…it still won’t be low enough for buyers. Maybe… many buyers are not really buyers.
It’s little frightening that people who don’t have a house want the housing market to crash. But if it crashes, everyone with a house will now be at a disadvantage. And at the same time that means the economy would have crashed. Therefore unemployment because employers will need to cut employees. I don’t think it’s wise to wish for a crash. Even a change is unfortunately societal wise bad. Stay the same is the only hope?
@user-zt5mk2fp2j A correction* not a crash. But a 50% fall, is just a correction to 2018 levels.
@user-zt5mk2fp2j people who bought at reasonable prices won't be affected by a crash. Unless they over leveraged with their heloc. Ppl who will be in pain are the people who chased price and took on unreasonable debt. Sure there is the minority from that group who truly had no options and were forced in to an impossible situation. But the majority were driven by greed or stupidity. Should we cry for them too?
@@user-zt5mk2fp2j I don't think so. Like someone has replied, is not wishing a crash, but a correction to prices that make sense with average wages.
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30 years on a new build only. Has to be insured. So lets say a new home is 1m, you put down 19%, eat the cost for the CMHC insurance. Over the life of the loan, you'll pay 810k in principal and 843k in interest. Your home now costs over 1.8m dollars. Congratulations.
yeah it's a sham
That's the plan! Generational mortgages or 'rent to own' arrangements. That's the new Model. Fascism is here. Thank your Liberal and NDP friends!
Yes it’s sad but if you rent you are not building any equity. Also rates will not be at this level for 30 yrs
@@AnitaSridharrates could be higher, rates could be lower, but at the moment they are historically average.
@@AnitaSridhar You won't be building any equity if you buy in the next few years anyway. In fact, chances are you'll lose equity if you purchase in the next 12 months,
In these crazy times of uncertainty and political manipulations, we turn to you for truth and common sense. You are my favorite digital content creator!!
And today J Powell says rates might very well stay high as inflation remains stubborn. The Canadian real estate industry needs to stop pumping and start telling people that we are in a correction.
He said this today? I didnt get to watch his speech. Will go check it out now
Just tell people to stop buying? 🤷🏼♂️
@@sugadre123 Yes. It's basically The Fed using verbal manipulation to keep the economic activity in check. He will intentionally flip flop verbally to keep companies from getting too complacent and not be forced into raising rates. Treasuries spiked up flirting with 5% again. And for Canada, we are basically stuck. The economy will have to be forced into a recession just to keep the real estate industry from spiking higher. I think there's no avoiding a big harsh correction for the real estate sector to get investors and flippers and agents into check. If that means people being forced into big losses, so be it.
@@Joe-mz6dc Well, unfortunately, having hundreds of thousands of people losing hundreds of thousands on their purchase seems to be the only way now. Lose your shirt, and maybe you'll stop throwing money around.
Agents and gov't are another big problem. Think about it, every time a house sells in Toronto, a 5% agents fee and a 5% land transfer tax is applied. What do you think that does to real estate inflation?
Development fees are also out of control. Add in GST on new builds and it's just a mess.
Jack the rate and people will stop
Great video showing possible outcome. Would be interested to understand how long you think this would take ? 2-3 years? OFSI LTI mandate will definitely cut back lending. There is a credit crunch brewing and all the banks are preparing
Great job as always!
Thanks Jon. Government consulting doesn’t mean that they will actually talk to the people who will be affected by their decisions. You know that large companies and banks will be the ones who will influence any decisions.
I agree with your assessment. Speaking to the macro picture, we've just recently exited a sustained period of the lowest global interest rates in no less than 5000 years of recorded human history. As such, the rate shocks to asset markets including housing have likely not fully played out yet. Add in the possibility of another rate-hiking cycle from the recent up-tick in inflation on both sides of the border, and future valuations on Canadian real estate are increasingly at-risk to the downside.
The price of a good house in 2018 was 250000 , the country ran quite smooth , the average working person could afford a home . The price of houses today is 2.5 time's more , what on earth happened , now very few can buy a house , I suspect the government has put people in competition with migrants , notice the ever increasing lay off lists , do we need more people ?
The government has been reckless with both housing and immigration policy
It's due to immigration levels. There's no the costs related to Living, Investing, Entertainment (L.I.E) will never go down. The cost of a mortgage will always be less than the cost of renting with this population increase.
The average national home price when Trudeau took office in 2015 was $400k
at 4:44 you can also see 2 double bottoms, aligned for an upward price movement, which as we can see it did move higher. But also concerning that there's another double bottom pattern. Another upward price movement !?
50% Reduction would be ideal if not re-structure the mortgage game to allow people to go on a plan like when your financing a car etc. There shouldn't be a need to get a pre approval. If you can afford to make your monthly rent why not the same process as owning a house? The only issue is that a lot of these homes need major renovations. And now we have small companies capitalizing on the multi-unit housing. just seen a news article on a multi-unit house with a garden suite and i guess they put every unit for sale. Not sure how it got or pending condo approval but if that's the case that's even worse. Please each unit is selling for $500k-$1.5m. Which is completely absurd. So I welcome a huge price decline. Thank you for your videos and keeping it real!
Jon you said in response to another comment that prices always increase 10% in the spring and then drop 10% in the summer/fall. Can you list which years this has happened?
Thanks as always Jon!
Hey Jon, knowing that you like charts, line up a 10 year gold chart (CDN$) with a 10 year CREA average home price chart. What I've noticed is that home prices have lagged the gold price. Gold had a run up from 2014 to mid 2016, backed off, then home prices backed off 8 months later. Gold bottomed fall of 2018, home prices bottomed spring of 2019, 7 months later. Gold ran up and peaked mid 2020, home prices kept going for 18 months (FOMO) and peaked at the start of 2022. Gold bottomed mid 2021, home priced bottomed at the start of 2023. The last two lags were about 18 months. With gold reaching all time highs in all currencies, the charts are telling me that average home prices will blow past 900k early next year. I wish it wasn't so but the charts don't lie.
That was a stupid comparison
@@maple913 Clearly my comment was above you're comprehension of what hard assets are.
That 30% rule of thumb, is that on top of gross or net income?
A year ago you said we were headed for 2018 prices within 12 months. That didn't happen but now we are headed to 2017 prices?
Good point
I'll tell ya whats going to happen now. Interest rates will be moving up further 😮
It’s sad how most people equate bearish advice to honest advice.
@@GabeBridges because it's what they want to hear they think the person is honest.
Doubt, would be nice though. @joelzinho4600
Great content as always Jon 🙏
Appreciate it!
When you speculate you need to accept there will be major corrections. Shelter has been a speculative market for 30 years. Without any correction due to market interference.
Whatever way this goes lots of people are going to suffer some serious pain.
good point, thanks for sharing
Thanks Jon. I can believe your forecast because asset bubbles have followed this patern for many many decades. I would add that 3 or 4 shoulders can develop before the big slide depending on how big the bubble was. A slight overshoot below the 2017 level would be typical behaviour as well. I wonder what the catalyst for the big drop will be. Imterest rate cuts failing to materialize is the one the comes to mind first.
I agree with your charting. Good stuff Jon
All of BC, from northern Okanagan to the coast, needs a full correction. Homes up in vernon BC are trading at 800k to a million+.....
Yes I can't wait to move in to my pre-fab 3d printed home. So happy to be canadian.
AND it still cost $450K even it dropped in price... Hahaha.
We could even further extend and pretend by making our protege beholdin' to the mortgage debt.... hey I bet it's an idea out there.... no kiddin'.
Hello, What fibonacci tool are you using to draw over your browser?
just a fib levels image with a clear background.
I don't see the interference in the market stopping enough for prices to ever drop significantly. Wish I am proven wrong but I just don't see huge drops in price.
I don’t either, but humans are pattern seekers, so we assume things will not deviate from their current path. It’s the event we couldn’t foresee that will move the needle.
Less jobs, higher interest, worst quality cars/appliances, expensive food, insurance and property taxes. The raises are falling way behind.
People just don’t have the money.
I own a window and door replacement company and we have all been creepy slow since last September.
People are in survival mode.
Notice how he doesn't respond to logic and common sense
Housing is like food. Its ok to have seconds but the focus should be on everyone getting atleast one serving.
Well said
Will that ever happen though?
@@DickNiaz26
I think it will, in most of the country.
The recession and the decline of airbnb should flush out most of the investors, unless they are ok with losing money every month with no end in sight.
Unfortunately the GVA and GTA will always be too expensive for anyone who works a regular highish paying hourly job.
Regardless of a foreign buyers ban, Chinese money will still flow into those 2 markets.
The boom in the outlying areas of these 2 areas is due for a big correction once the recession is in full swing next year.
I would look for Calgary to be in for the biggest correction over the next 5 years. They are one of the only places that is building and all the speculators are buying them up. There will one day be way too much inventory for the amount of people who want to live there.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b Either way, this is why I'm looking to getting a real estate license. Always lucrative. Lesson to kids out there - GET INTO THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY. Student Loans are a scam. Become a real estate agent.
Great analytics
Hi Jon,
Thank you for providing such useful information. Home prices in Calgary are increasing rapidly. High prices and less options. Is it a good time to buy or prices will fall? Thank you again.
Very optimistic forecast, especially the 3.5% interest rate
@8:53
Quick Google identifies 5.5%, not 3.5%. Moving the 5 year rate up another 2% will shift the house value down.
Never would I have thought housing would be considered a volatile asset 😂
Was so hoping to see a head and shoulders charting pattern to play out on those prices.
next is double top or bearish flag which will both break to the downside.
Hope you are right. Royal LePage just released a report saying prices will *rise* 9%.
Will the cost of land, materials and labor go back to 2017 level too?
Nope, Jon is just saying it for the clicks... follow Jon and you will stay sidelined forever.
@@user-tr5zk8dj3t it has more to decline. Lots of renewals combined with job losses coming. The economy is sucking balls right now.
This is less so analysis and more so hopeful thoughts (or more likely click bait) that prices may reach 2017 levels (which i would love for the record) but you cannot just equate real estate trends to stock trends and supplement it with fed budget and suggest we somehow will get to 2017 prices... remember JTs big promise last election was to tackle housing... how's that going? (PP wont be better either and could even be worse)
Some of the Fed measures will help (fraud detection, funding for more housing construction, more gov own land allocated for housing) and some will hurt (like 30 yr amortization and RRSP withdrawal limit increases). Its ultimately gonna help in the long run but there is nothing that is signaling such a MASSIVE drop in house prices.
The new game has become having multi tenants in your investment properties to become somewhat cash neutral and tenants in primary residencies in basements in order to offset the insane cost of the current mortgages rates... most landlord will survive the high rates and so housing may be stagnant, shit it might even decline to a decent degree but it ain't going to 2017 prices.
We are not out of the woods with rates and rates at this level or higher for a other year will have a major impact i would say we end up with December 2019 pricing in a best case scenario as the banks can handle that sort of decline
Jon said last year that in 12 months we would see 2018 prices. That didn't happen so now he needs another click bait video title so he's saying 2017 prices are coming.
eventually, adjusted canadian house prices going back to 2001 levels.
Given that technical analysis is voodoo anyway, what I take from that chart at 3:45 is that home prices, like stocks, tend upwards and to the right over time, even if this is merely a reflection of the decline in the value of money. A line smoothing out the excess does not dip back down to 485,000. To my eye, we have retraced a lot of the excess already. But what do I know. I just think there is no way we build enough homes to house people and supply and demand still holds as a factor in pricing.
Thanks for the comment
I like your channel. At least it's not misguided us as like mainstream media.
Even 2017 prices are unaffordable for most, and if prices go lower than that our economy will probably implode.
Can we just agree that Canada is officially fubar?
I guess Canadians are finding out what us First Nations (Mi'kmaq) have found out. Renters and homeless in our own lands. Good luck, were ALL going to need it. IMO of course......
A house crash is not a good thing. It will just doom a bunch of factors for it to happen.
Only way to fix housing is to cap birth rates.
@@user-zt5mk2fp2j then who will support the aging population when they retire? There is no way out of this mess.
@@user-zt5mk2fp2jbirth rate is 1.33. We don’t have enough births
@@milhouse8166 They should of had children to support them or taken measures themselves.
Hi Jon do you have any info on the new capital gains rules for non primary residences? Apparently they now taxed 66% of gains over 200k, will this be a deterrent or is it smoke and mirrors?
We wanted to downsize to maybe a seniors mobile home community... we have a 4 star one locally and its quite nice...but try to find an empty one... and they sell for 250k and up for an old one. Anyways there is fear of buying those now, as parks are closing and telling people to move their trailers. The land is more valuable than what they make running a park. So if the government(s) want prefab units to take off, they could start by guaranteeing long, long term land leases...
just listed one for $79K but it's seasonal which is another issue for many.
I live in an area (Okanagan of BC) where there is actually one mobile home park where you also get to buy the land. Monthly fees thereafter are only $85/mo. I think that's just for snow removal and other small things. It's as cute as a button and very popular. Homes run for anywhere from $369K to over $500K depending on size and the like. Should be more of those types of communities out there. I have seen it where mobile home park owners have been told they have to get out. Not a good situation as some homes were too old to even move safely.
Appreciate you're analysis. You're the only one that has linked Stock market with Canadian Real Estate. Especially in Vancouver here. I'm guessing buyer's down payment is in play. When stock market hit's highs, they have more down payment and boost their bullishness. All independent analyst/traders are anticipating a stock market decline. Initially, 10-20% and then as recession becomes more of a reality for the average joe, we will see the end of the cycle. And take real estate with it to the downside.
Although you can make the argument the income-to-house price relationship is clearly disjointed, you can't ignore the destruction that has occurred to the value of the Canadian dollar. Canada has blown up its balance sheet in the last 8 years, doubling the national debt. This has created a lot of inflation that has decimated the value of our dollar. It takes quite a few more dollars to buy a house than it used to because the value of those dollars has fallen a lot. Nothing is free. When the government throws around unlimited money......there is a cost. Inflation is very expensive.
I agree 100% with your outlook and how we got to this point.
The problem is that we are not talking about Microsoft stock, we are talking about the shelter people need to stay alive, and the people are starting to speak out.
Everyone knows it will take 10 years before there is enough purpose built rentals to make a difference.
Look for this govt and the next one to protect renter's to keep them productive. It's the only quick bandaid that they can use while they wait and it will be at the expense of landlords rights.
Owning more than one property will no longer make financial sense.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b I agree with you. The government will continue running deficits and when things change in the next election, it will have to continue because of the massive social cost if they don't. My point is, that I doubt we see the massive housing crash some think is coming because the currency has been so heavily devalued through government overspending.
@@sherylsauder5579
I don't think there will be any hard and fast price declines.
I think a 700k condo will be worth 600k in 5 years.
Wages will slowly catch up and affordability will be reached
There was an article on better dwelling a few months ago talking about a specific large company investing in SFHs in southern Ontario, increasing their portfolio on a monthly basis. The article also mentioned that the government was specifically giving the company grants for business investment when they’re worth $400 million.
Yup, but Jon fails to mention it because it would not fit his narrative. This corporation is and will keep prices stable and higher. I see them in my neighborhood... they buy a house over asking and within 90 days the for lease sign is up on the front lawn and a week or two later, someone desperate or gullible moves in. It sucks, but it is the reality... prices are not going back down to 2017 levels, they have already corrected and retraced in many areas. Jon is misleading viewers as usual, but so many people love the doomsday narrative as it soothes their souls, gives them false hopes, and it gives Jon lots of clicks.
John, I like you for the most part. But this prediction is total bs.
A year ago he was saying 2018 prices in 12 months.
It’s really sad how people misguide others.There is enough chaos in the market.People if you can afford the payment just buy you will never be able to catch the bottom. Just lock in your rate for 2 years.Rates will be lower than not 2 % though
Vancouver is so full of "dirty money" I don't see much of a correction happening. Not to mention about 50% of the grossly overpriced homes in Van are owned outright. People with no mortgage can simply wait until they get the price they want. I'm seeing this first hand with several neighbours...they have no problem putting up a for sale sign and if they don't get the price they want they pull it from the market and try at a later date. (note - these are large homes and properties 3m +) Inflation needs to be (core) sticky or go higher for another year+ for any hope of a real correction here in Van. - Just saying what I am seeing
Vancouver was ground ZERO for the start of laundered money through their real estate .Went on for YEARS with provincial gov. turning a blind eye to it as they were making so much money off the sales.Federal gov. found out about it and also did NOTHING TO STOP IT,moved east to Ontario and continued it for years again. ( rough estimate is 10-15yrs before gov. did something) 100s of BILLIONS ran through the CANADIAN REAL ESTATE LAUNDROMAT..
@@mikebowers7719 100% correct and disgusting. I would go to the casino 10 to 12 yrs ago to play low stakes poker and in the high limit area, 21 yr old Asian women were betting 2k per hand for 20 minutes, cash out and ask for a cheque from the casino. Rinse and repeat... A high school drop out could see what was happening...
Some dirty money, most are local that own more than 2 properties that is why price go way up . how do I know ?
NO RATE CUTS COMING: The recent boost in Carbon Tax,is the most inflation producing tax of all.Watch inflation stay stubbornly high,especially as gasoline taxes transmit inflation throughout the economy increasing the price of everything.
Seeing the prices jump in Calgary and inventory tight, it's hard to believe they will ever come down, but it might be different for other overinflated markets.
When Calgary comes down it stays down for a while
0:08 canoe canadian housing plan 😆
So when real estate does not crash by year end Will Jon keep calling for a crash in Dreamland?
Yup! Next year he will do the same videos again saying the crash is only 12 months away. Same as last year.
@@johnnylongstocking183 that's like saying our population will crash and only then will he be correct. His math simply does not add up and he is forgetting about the law of supply and demand.
@@charronfamilyconnect he doesn't care about basic economics. He has a narrative to push, and he's dug himself too deep to back out now. When you built your channel around the market crashing it's hard to back away from that. His real estate business has tanked so he needs the channel to get views to pay the bills and maybe drum up a few scared sellers.
I’ll keep calling this crap out. If you think the chances of things going on like this are greater than a correction then good for you. I don’t see it happening
@@jonflynn and I will keep calling for the 2nd coming of Christ. Your prediction might come before Christ
I triangle means a breakout is forthcoming. You’re showing a bullish flag, not a bearish one. The probability of an upside break has edge over a downside break.
You really think the banks want to give out mortgages?? They are already in trouble with bad credit.
just hoping people keep paying the interest on existing loans
I'd like to see you cover the phenomenon of massive 7000 sqft McMansions that have been popping up in the middle of nowhere in rural areas. We've all seen them. Who is building these snd buying them? Seems they get built and sit empty.
I see Asians buying them, or drug money laundered in the empty ones. Some are in fact used for drug dealing, as labs, or growing pot. Certain rural areas are known for this...
Interest rates are already maxed out, people say they don't have money but I don't see any major foreclosure or any such thing people seems to be juat doing fine..... Not sure how but bubble is not bursting
Extended amoritizations. People have 70 year mortgafes
unemployment is rising, they will start defaulting once they don't have jobs.
But when unemployment rises, BOC also needs to cut overnight rate.
Man! how are the house prices going to 2017 levels when interest rates are scheduled to go down? Isn't it inverse proportion that interest rates comes down and prices go haywire just on sentiment of FOMO?
Jon only believes that interest rates and prices are linked when interest rates go up. Rates dropping have absolutely zero impact on prices, he's even said that when rates drop prices drop too.
And yet all I hear is there is not enough supply and prices won’t come down! I live in Caledon and prices are down 30% and there is no shortage of supply!
I'd say 30 percent decline would do it
Need 50% to be in line with past inflation.
Its already declined 30% from 2022 peak
@@JayGill-qf7gb it's only declined 8 to 10 percent on newer homes and maybe 12 percent on older homes
@JayGill-qf7gb another 30 percent decline would be an accurate value.
Thank you Mr. Flynn. I always look foreword to your updates. Kind regards.
So nice of you, thanks for the comment
That's a head & shoulder pattern, which indicates price retracement to $425-430k level in mid 2025 to 2026 range.
You are making the assumption that what the government is referring to as “shelter costs” means owning a home. More likely they will be targeting rent and not home ownership. Home ownership is likely to remain substantially less affordable IMO. Overall great analysis though!
thanks for the comment good point
Add 4.3% as the CAD is down to USD 4.3% YTD.
good point
If someone gets "extend and pretend" and they are underwater on their loan then they cannot sell without paying the outstanding loan balance. If they can't pay, then what happens?
Walk away and default
@@milhouse8166 Almost all Canadian mortgages are "full recourse” loans, meaning the buyer/borrower can't just walk away (what they did in the 2008 US crash). Even in foreclosure, they remain fully responsible for paying back the value of the mortgage. Which is exactly what should happen to all the faux "investors" who bought multiple properties and created this mess.
Actually the previous few days after Bank announcement, we saw multiple offers and 100k overpriced at least!!! I thought that the announcement will make people hold to lower prices!!! But no, people go to binding war !!!
Sellers are sitting on the sidelines. This is a big mistake. Sell before everyone wakes up at the same time. That's when it's too late. The sellers are always the last to know what your realtor has known for a while
Why would some investors are realtors suggest to never pay down your mortgage. Like never pay extra payments
Hi Jon ! We keep hearing about demand-supply gap...No such Gap in history has lasted for decades for any other product....These gaps are temporary and even out with time...!! If this gap is not getting filled, I think it's by design and vested interest is mapping that this gap never gets filled...are cities manipulating and participants in this corruption of builders nexus..I am a new immigrant , please help me understand this !!
The market can remain irrational longer than you and I can remain solvent.
You came off the boat with a million of your brothers in tow. We only built 200000 homes this year. You do the math.
I have seen some of the US data, and while the averages are going up, what is driving that seems to be only higher priced properties are selling well, with other priced properties sales declining year over year. This is misleading in looking at the average. Maybe same happening in CDN market.
Id shit my pants every day for a year to get 2017 prices
Inflation has been 9% per year on average over the last 20 years. You have to use the 1980s CPI to get the real numbers
Budy😂win win solution is 40 years mortgages.
We had those mortgages in 2007 to 2011 right?
This is not a stock market with Fibonacci predictions.
All frdud cases should be stuck with interest penalties to force the sale of speculative properties.
That would mean our GDP has crashed,,,,i believe 40% is housing.
So our debt to GDP just went from 46% to 55-60% ,,,,thats just federal, not provincual or municipal.
Vancouver housing market is hot…house is sold within a week
RRSP WDLs are the worst thing ever for first home buyers. In my experience NO ONE has the money to pay it back after realizing all the home expenses, so not only do you pay the tax (benefits the government) but you steal away your retirement savings "if" you even have that money saved.
Home owners already built equity over the years. If someone is selling his condo and buying a house the downpayment could be 200-500k plus mortgage 400k so they can purchase a house for up to 1 million with 30% affordability
Whoever sold this equity BS to the populace, should be given the scam master Nobel Prize!
Equity? You need to SELL your current property, then settle the score with bank, and pay them whatever you owe them, and ONLY THEN buy a new home with the money that is left. This is how things function in a functioning world. Otherwise, it is simply called: DOUBLE MORTGAGE.
House prices in Toronto up 10% since the beginning of this year, bidding wars everywhere. Not enough supply!
Jon will continue to say we have more than enough houses and that prices are going down no matter what is actually happening.
house prices are up 10% every spring and then back down 10% in the summer and winter.
@@jonflynn that is completely false, and you know it.
@@jonflynn please list the years that prices have increased 10% in the spring and then also declined 10% that summer/winter.
If you can't then it's just another lie you have told.
@@jonflynn please list all the years in which prices increased 10% in the spring and then dropped 10% in the fall.
As every other solution that government bureaucrats can come up with, these are cosmetic superficial solutions that will make the problem a lot worse and definitely do not address the main reasons behind the increase in housing prices. The main reasons are:
1. Government over-spending which caused inflation, and many people use real estate as a hedge against government-induced inflation.
2. Over-taxation of economy and overgrowth of government interference and regulations which chokes economy and forces the money to exit productive economic activities and instead accumulate on speculative assets.
What do they propose as solution? more expenditure on vague initiatives, more taxation and more regulations. This would only put more pressure on middle-class and investors which will drain the economy sooner than later and will leave Canada in much worse situation. You will have lower home prices, but at what cost? be careful what you wish for.
I don't agree with his read of the chart... it does not look bearish to me at all... the trend is *upwards.
You can't increase your population by 7-8% in two years and expect home prices to drop...
If house prices drop the way this fellow is suggesting - double down!
Trend in upwards due to declining value of the dollar. If the chart was inflation adjusted it would look a lot different.
7-8% immigration suppresses wages through more available labour (competition for jobs). Mass immigration is actually detrimental as not all things are supply vs demand dynamics. There is a ceiling to how much goods can cost, regardless of demand.
What needs to be considered in your predictions is the millions of new immigrants who are presently pilled up in apartments,houses, and hotels. This is a very different situation from the 2017 housing needs. That doesn’t include all dramatic increase of immigrant students and immigrant workers. It is frequently heard and seen to have 4-6 people pilled up in a small 6x8 room, taking shifts at sleeping on foams on the floor, and that is in a small northern community. With the continued immigration policies by the federal government for many years to come, even if 1 million housing projects occur yearly (residential single dwellings and rental units), it will only supply enough housing for immigrants and not the shortage of present Canadians.
But that does not suit Jon's narrative. Many have pointed this out to him and he continues to spew out misleading, doomsday videos for the desperate sidelined buyers, giving them false hopes. We have already experienced a decent correction in Ontario, I am seeing prices going higher again East of the GTA in popular CANADIAN pockets, as Canadians flee GTA for the very reasons you mention.
U as realtor , why not creating fomo ?
U r too good and honest in realtor industry
Houses are going up man
Look at gold price.
Debt increase=asset value increase. How about banks call in some of the outlandish debt they issued? They never will. Bankruptcies aren't profitable hence 99 year mortgages. How is this legal in Canada??????
In fairness, changes to building and new home construction takes longer than a year, changes to rentals, depending on the action, could bring changes in months. It’s good politics, especially for courting new voters. 🤷🏾♂️
Probably 2012 prices
Prices going up
Average income is what?
In 2021, 21.2 percent of the Canadian population had an annual income of 100,000
Now its 50% no way bro.
Who the hell is going to pay the downtown payment for 30 year mortgages. Why not introduce rent to own small dwellings, best option.
The only thing a graph is good for is that it can be manipulated by word choice. It’s like listening to a politician giving a speech. They say stuff that makes people think one thing but it means something much different to the politician and it’s rarely as good as our definition.
These moves to allow more people to qualify for mortgages can only increase demand and will probably result in zero improvement in affordability.
housing market is being treated like the stock market
Lets tell the MPs they can wait 35 years for their pensions.
This channel is full of doomers that wont but a house until they get 3000 sq feet houses in downtown Toronto for 250k lmao
How upside down are you right now?
@@schafer240 how upside down are you on your rent right now? 100%?
@@johnnylongstocking183 Zero thanks for asking, I'll extend the question to you as well? Doubt you'll answer.
@@schafer240 ya I guess living in your mom's basement is free. It's hard for me to be upside down on my house when I own it ouright.
@@johnnylongstocking183 pretty tough behind that screen, bet your a real joy in real life and well liked.
Matchbox in the sky is not a home
They will NEVER address the hedge fund issue. Ever.
It will fall but no houses will be for sale
You are stretching a lot
The whole cincept is wrong. Housing is not a commodity, it's a necessity. All this aura of making business out of the place where you park your bed is wrong. I know people who were in ordinary labour force paid off their homes by age 45 or never had a mortgage. We are not going to be better off going forward. Starting family, buying a home for young people became a speculative enterprize gaiming with one's own life. The proposed changes are atrocious and at some point everything will snap and collapse. Maybe this is another level game that's coming.
Despite all the financial struggles i and my family faced, everything is finally falling into place! $47,000 weekly profit and riches I'll always praise the Lord.
Same here, with my current portfolio made from my investments with my personal financial advisor I totally agree with you
Wow! Kind of in shock you mentioned expert, elizabeth ann graney.What a coincidence!!!
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I use to work 3 jobs,full time at Walmart,a server at night and Lyft on the weekend,until Elizabeth Ann graney change my story.
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One has to wonder if Freeland and Trudeau have banking stocks in their portfolios.