Biggest housing bubble of all time? | Analyst on risks in Canada's real estate market
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ส.ค. 2024
- MRB Partners' Phillip Colmar explains why he thinks Canada's real estate market is in a huge housing bubble and what key factors could cause it to pop.
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Pricing of buying a house and renting prices are way too expensive for the income of regular families, that's the problem.
Humm that's what he said
@Michael Lambert I kind of disagree... I'm not sure if cheaper to buy home than rent.... Rent is much cheaper these days---about 2/3 of housing payment.
problem is mass immigration, it is causing demand
We need to shed old ways of thinking and doing things. Clearly the future is anything but stable. This is not a time for having families.
It is difficult to make exact projections for the housing market as it is still unclear how quickly or to what degree the Federal Reserve will reduce inflation and borrowing costs without having a substantial negative impact on demand from consumers for anything from houses to cars.
If you are new to the market, I recommend seeking professional assistance. The most effective approach to creating a well-organized portfolio is to begin with a professional who is knowledgeable about the turbulent yet profitable market.
No one thaught intrest rates would go up this much what if it ends up doubling in the next bubble? Evn professionals don't play that into plans as it's not in their intrest
Canadians spend most of their income on rent or mortgage, this country is super opressed.
It's long overdue. it's time to pop the housing bubble in order to have affordable housing prices.
dont hold your breath because the dollar is on its last gasp. What makes you think it will ever improve performance vs real estate and commodities anytime soon?
@@jordancarlin9687what are you smoking ?
@@jordancarlin9687 You are not coherent.
@@junnininja when the dollar loses purchasing power prices of assets go up ( derp ) . There is no bubble so long as this iteration of the dollar exists…. The dollar is dead ; hence why they can’t stop printing money .Do you know anything about economics?
@@jordancarlin9687it’s all about supply and demand. Right now demand is way too high and not enough housing. Population is Increasing every year on a higher rate without proper resources to support it. Yea CAD dollar is trash but it has nothing to do with the high housing cost in Canada.
Imagine paying $3k in rent on a regular salary. That’s not sustainable
I'm in that boat. We cannot afford paying rent and we cannot afford to move out. And I held a well paying full time job for a couple of years now. I remember waking up in cold sweat worrying that we would end up homeless. Still at risk...What the heck is going on? These houses made of sticks and small properties cannot possibly be worth that much.
Fun fact: 40% of condos in Ontario are owned by investors.
I know some of these investors - the units are put up for rent. Huge rental demand too.
@@adrianvisentin534 at a loss no doubt..
I imagine the numbers are about the same in Vancouver.
ROFL... no... your units are not empty, they are rent with an inventory below 1%. A landlord is not an investor. An investor is someone who doesn't rent and doesn't live in the unit.
@@adrianvisentin534 Then it is not an investor. Like explained, an investor will not rent or live in the unit, they just want to resale the unit at a higher price for profit. However selling a unit that is not your primary residence is a gain in capital taxable as 50% of personal income.
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I don’t want to say “I called it” as i really didn’t expect it to get this bad. I did see a problem with home and land prices increasing faster than general inflation well before I intended to buy one myself.
It's not even bad yet we haven't entered a recession yet banks gonna have to crash the economy to curb inflation rates need to double
Doug, what else do you see in your crystal ball?
Congratulations you're a prophet.
@@Ynalaw haha thanks 😛
Unfortunately my crystal ball is pretty murky at this time…
Million dollar homes plus high interest and income ratios DOES NOT ADDS UP!!’ BUBBLE ABOUT TO BURST!!
When???
These so called Self Proclaimed Experts need to get their heads checked. Most properties in major Canadian cities are owned by investors who own mutliple units
Every bubble bursts, the question is when and by how much. Canadian interest rates rose to 23% in 1981. The 5% rates of today always have the potential to go much higher.
Yes, but back in 1981 you could buy a house for under 100K.. I bought my house back in 2005 for 160K. Down payment was. 8K. I was making 43K back then. Now my house is worth 900K. I make 100K year now and I could not afford to buy my same house for 900K. I would need 150K down payment and still carry a mortgage of 750K. You need a household income of 250K to support that. Many will be walking away from their homes in the next 2 years.
23% interest on a 60k home back in 1980s is still way less than 5% on a million. Simple math.... there is no comparison. It is way harder today to own a home from scratch. Not to mention wages staying stagnant for a decade
New house buyers are not aware of this history
5% is the bank of canada lending rate. then the banks put on there own interest. it is at roughly 6.6% now
The current rates are almost perfect. We'll never see 2% mortgages again.
Average household income 97000. Average home 650000. Who is buying these houses? Not an average Canadian.
This is something I wonder. Average incomes and the houses being bought for 750k don't make sense.
there is housing shortage. strong demand from high immigration but low supply. Prices will continue to go up. Theres no bubble bursting. How can price can collapse when theres strong demand for the product?
Because the carrying cost of a mortgage becomes impossible... or qualifying for one.
How? With high inflation and low salaries followed by massive layoffs.
It wont burst! It might drop 500k for houses in GTA & Vancouver on 1-2million doller homes, but that’s only in those major markets, and nowhere else is going to see much of a drop, maybe 100-150k
The government, banks, builders, developers, agents, etc everyone is doing anything they possibly can to not let this market naturally crumble, as it should. It’s being artificially manipulated in propped up by the government banks builders, and anyone that can continue to make money off Canadian real estate.
It’s criminal at this point
I would even doubt that much of a drop for the 1-2 million dollar properties here in Vancouver (Metro, West, North, Richmond, maybe Burnaby). $1-2 million is still considered on the low end (townhomes, tear-downs, etc) for those with some measure of wealth here, even at higher rates. There's enough demand with money behind it that I suspect those price-points may weather the storm fairly well.
Sounds exactly like Australia!
That’s what l’m thinking William 🤔
What he forgot to mention was the lack of supply. That's what will keep the market on its current path. Pricing might correct a little but it won't burst until there's a huge new supply of housing. This won't happen anytime soon.
Exactly!
In other words, we're all fucked
Yea, a bubble is high prices based on some falsehood. In this case we have a serious housing shortage, opposite of a bubble.
@@xversacex Landlords and generationally rich families should be OK. Also, property investors stand to pick up some deals in the interim.
High prices that are a function of insufficient supply aren't part of any bubble that may exist because it would represent the real fundamental price. That said, policies that seek to reduce demand or reduce vacancy rates would cause a price drop that would feel like a bubble bursting.
I am hearing this since i came to canada 20 years ago.. What a joke
Prices were actually reasonable 20 years ago. Prices didn't balloon until 2010. There's data to support this if you do some research
Ladies and gentleman, introducing the 40 year mortgage.
This is what I can really see happening as well as minimum down payments increased to atleast 10%
Nope !! The oligopoly banks here will NOT take that risk and reduce their profits . It will cause a stock market crash in Canada , we ARE NOT a diversified economy …. Better to have the housing bubble burst than stock market crash here .
Greed is in the housing market so that can go burst and and that is not such a bad thing .
Too many investors in housing market.
House is for shelter .
Day of reckoning approaching ….. one day all that was said for last 15-18 years will come TRUE .
Why do agents advertise sold over asking? That just advertises that you didn't know the market and asked too little.
"Sold over market value" that's a advertising point!
They're trying to show that they can get you the most money. How does "Sold under asking" look to you? LOL.
I’ll believe it when I see it
Rates will go higher covid buyers won't be able to refinance at 7-10 percent interest rates you'll see it
Huh, you saying houses prices can go down as well as up??
Time to stop with the " Credit " system as it doesnt reflect the ability to actually pay bills.
Bring on the POP ❤
It’s gonna go boom
It’s going to be decades before we see that happen
@@jumbome7420 they said that when the bubble burst in America.
How long ago was that?
@@jebuschrist9161 your point?
@@jumbome7420 it was decades ago
Well, almost.
Can you please suggest to the federal government to easy up on any provincial or federal tax including giving breaks or supporting individuals or businesses who build rental buildings over for 40 rental dwellings? This how we can slow house-rent-buyers to stop buying houses and stabilize the housing market.
They can't keep the pace with immigrants coming in, nothing can stay high forever.. It inevitable..
Weird, houses were affordable under Harper and unnecessary immigration was also under control then too. It’s almost like this current regime is purposely incompetent
they're doing that on purpose
you nailed it. Mass immigration is causing demand on housing. We are now taking another 1.5 million in the next three years. wait till you see the prices then. Real Estate companys are loving it.
400k immigrants per year in a country of 30mil is literal insanity
@@panamericaco and mostly unskilled!!
@@ConflictingTheories Keeps wages low.
My 150,000 house is now worth 750,000. Yeah that's a bubble
renting or buying a house is so expensive and no everybody has the income to afford buying or renting,the government has to something about it
The window of opportunity for the government to step in to prevent a serious recession & likely housing crisis is long past.
The whole of the Western world is in exactly this same situation.
No Canada is actually the worst of the western world.
No
@@Etaoinshrdlu69 Okay. I'm interested to learn about the exceptions.
@@starcorpvncj They are not to the same extreme degree as in canada
Australia's bubble is bigger
Housing prices is the cause of higher inflation in Canada .BOC.must increase mortgage rates in order to lower inflation.its to early for rate cuts. also housing price must come down .
There will be a slight correction, but prices will never plummet. Sorry to burst YOUR bubble 😛
😂😂 said every airhead like you in usa during 2007... enjoy your high interest payments 😁
I agree. Too many wanna invest in RE in Toronto and Van
Vancouver is the real estate foreign investment capital of Canada. Why : property tax / hence carrying costs are half of Toronto. City govt are all big real estate investors. Nice to own big homes here .. and rent rooms at $100 a night. Monthly SRO's with shared toilet $1500. Sick. Canadian govt welcomes you and commits political suicide at the same time.
Let me guess. You bought a house in the past 3 years?
With trudeau in power they will most likely plummet. Nobody is buying right now with everyone's asking price so....
Well it's either the middle class or the stupendous house prices that has to go...
And Canada goes pop 💥
Still waiting.....😂
Seriously, just leave Canada for countries like Singapore if you work in the financial sector, Taiwan if you specialize in high tech electronics and hardware, Japan if you are a designer/software engineer, or european coutries if you are a medical profession, all problems solved instantly. These countries have diminishing population, the cost of living is much cheaper, healthcare is easily accessible, and policies for foreign workers are loose at the moment.
I work in healthcare in Europe. Everyone wants to go to Canada.
With a couple of more rate hikes which are on the way the bubble will burst and the housing market will come crashing down. I would say Late 2023 early 2024.
Dream on!
@@MikeyPaperaaaww dont be sad its only artificial equity on paper !
You do realize as long as there’s a housing shortage the bubble will never burst
Just wait and see all those desperate sellers in a few months flooding the market since they no longer can afford their high payments. @@jumbome7420
@@jumbome7420u do realize mortgage payments are north of $4000 a month. That's literally $80k salary just on mortgage payment, when the avg household income is that much.
What is the value of a home when gold is $7458/OZ
do 🌼 wages bow, interest
rate 's tie, to thrown in the entire hamper sun dry country laundry 🌳 🦋
The obvious cause of massive house price increases is CMHC offering million dollar mortgages to less than prime borrowers! Add to this the suicidal 5 year renewable terms on mortgages. The grave has been dug!
we need supply in order for this to occur
And reduced demand, I suppose. To an extent, large immigration numbers are propping the housing market up.
lets goooooooo, pop that bubble!!!!
The only thing that slightly higher intrest rates mean is, you'll need a bigger down payment to keep your monthly payments manageable.
But it will start to remove the real estate speculators out of the market.
All they need to do after that is, limit the number of foreign students studying in Canada and poeple might just start to see affordable homes and apartments again.
Limiting AirBn'B wouldn't be a bad idea either.
0_o
youre just a racist trump supporter. foreign students are a vital point of the canadian economy
ANALysts have been saying this since 2008 but what happened? It dipped a bit then kept climbing.
Sad
Never pops tho....😭
It will and has before
Get ya popcorn ready
@@ethimself5064 You and Garth Turner are ALWAYS wrong.😭
@@oh_k8 Get a life and a real education
@@ethimself5064in a few decades it will
And that’s only in canada with no argument, I’m travelling around worlds and there is not such animals
Will it be like Australia where the bubble began 20 years ago, and is still going strong?
Seems like everyone expects property to keep rising from here.
It can't continue to gap wages. The bubble is worse than what happened in America. It will end.
Could be?
[You] don't say.
They’ve been calling this a housing bubble for over 20 years.
Why not call it too many immigrants, not enough houses being built because of government restrictions…
The price of building a house is ridiculous. Look how much it cost Trudeau to build a barn. Like 8 million dollars
But when?
with the current average million $ level of housing price, and the 6% mortgage rate, even the doctors have hard time to buy a house. The bank rate has been raised very high for a year, my question is who have been kept pouring the money into this market? I don't think they are ordinary Canadians, if so who are they? 🤔
Millions of immigrants bringing billions of dollars. i own 7 properties all paid off from foreign income from my parents. no tax as income is foreign of non residents.
Thanks for speaking honestly about the real estate situation. The industry has driven home prices too high for most families. The solution is for prices to align with family budgets, even if it means a market correction. The wisest thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different streams of income that doesn't depend on the govt.
Remember when "We're All in This Together" revered the Essential Workers, but now those workers can not afford to live. Society is an embarrassment.
You know what they kept saying this "bubble" since early 2000, that's why no one listens.
Where’s your AAA rating now Canada.
Back in the day housing developers would develop a residences with new homes looking all basically the same but average size houses. Now lots are bought privately and built by individual contractors.
gotta remember we are taking the most immigrants at unprecedented levels right now
They said the housing bubble will burst for decades now
99% middle Eastern ppl raising rent for Canadians!
All not just middle easterns, Asians, Africans, and other immigrants, while the existing renting residential structures can't accommodate the high number of immigrants..
Without rent controls or absentee owner penalties the "slum lords" and scammers will continue to make it impossible for the average Canadian family to see their dreams fullfilled. The homeless aren't even in the conversation.😞
Rent control actually increases rents
👉🏻@@JaBlanche 👈🏻my building is subject to rent control. My rent went from $996/mth to $1020/mth last year. Less than 3% ... the idea that an open market price would be cheaper is insulting to any renter.🤣
it is about mass immigration
I have a rental property where the property taxes, insurance and Condo fees are more than $750 per month and we haven't even included the mortgage or repairs. The property taxes and condo fees have tripled in 15 years. The city spending is out of control.
Foreign money, not just excessive leverage, is what drove affordability down the drain.... why home prices no longer correlate with local incomes...
Hahahahahahahahah perfect can't wait til interest rates are 10 percent
Never gonna happen
@jumbome7420 yah they Said that after trudeau senior everyone lost there houses. Google away
My house doubled in value during the pandemic. So that needs to disappear before the actual correct takes place. So 50 plus 20 and you will have the correct value for your home
Well this is great, I’m definitely voting liberal next election. Thank you Trudeau for wasting our money and time.
not a single word to the premiers or local municipal councils? yk the ppl who control zoning and infrastructure and have the most direct impact on housing? why don't you have anything to say to them.
@@ethanivan9347 They don't print money. That's the federal government, and the ONLY reason we are here now. Printed money
@@defconbrown8667 The central bank is the entity that prints money.
Get ready for the biggest real estate crash in Canada 🇨🇦
Is it bigger than Australia's bubble?
Thanks Justin 😂
I wonder if that dude has ever had an actual job, I'm assuming NO
bahahaahahah, I knew it was aboot to happen.
No one will be able to afford 600k houses at 20% interest rate
Not the working class, but the world is huge.
The only thing that would help the situation is for Trudeau to send more money to Ukraine
🤣
😳
Freemason Freeland agrees with you. She’s always on standby to hand over Canadian tax dollars to her countrymen 💰 Slava Ukraine
Nah, it is different here. Real estate prices are still cheap. Buy, bye, bye!
Reporters have been calling for a great recession, for over 3 years!
Uber drivers could get million dollar holmes in canada the market is a cliwn show.
*homes....*clown
In future home ownership will go to record low eventually governments cahoots with big corporations will own all the home happening in America in record pace . Remember 50 years ago everyone is kicked out owning small farmland to big corporations.
You know which corporation is buying houses? pension funds.
Interest rates were used buy extra units... not when immigrants are coming with cash on hand!
Im sorry, bidding wars will happen if prices drop.
Massive bubble 🫧
Same thing in europa😢
housing crash is inevitable ... just a matter of time ... this year 25% of mortgages will be renewed at 2x or 3x the rates ... but it might also have something to do with universal income
Everything's fine......lol
If karma is real the bubble will burst. Unfortunately I don’t see that happening
Shows them the value money works fee Canada history commerce services bills Asia police amende
Trudeau must travel immediately to see comrade Zelensky for another phot op and handover another billion! Remember he said “whatever it takes Canadians will be there to support Ukraine. FOR AS LONG AS IT TAKES”.
Ivan sez vodka for breakfast!
These 2 look like brothers 🤔
He is wrong on the currency USD/CAD will drop meaning CANADIAN DOLLARS will gain in value. look at the daily and weekly charts lower lows and higher lows. USD/CAD will eventually go to parity within the next 2 years approx
Wooot means I can finally get into the market 😂 jk get out of Canada while u can!
Somone needs to pay interest to the banks and be the banks slaves
Why is he talking to his clone?
Take the one commodity we all need and treat it as a way to make money and this is what you get.
Edit: What a sh show.
Oh for sure it’s inevitable you know 💯 . The sky is fallinggggggggg ahhhhhhhh
It is inevitable, wait and see. This gas happened before/nothing new
It's almost as if reporters are wishing for a recession. That's what they pray for every night. So they something to talk about!
All done on purpose.
All these analysts that are against real estate investment, are not happy that Canadians are investing in their homes, because they want Canadians to give them their money to gamble with, and use it to buy real estate on foreclosure, flip, etc. And make monney on peoples' money by buying real assets, and selling hot air.
Crash 💥🏡
He spoke too fast and I didn’t understand half he said.
I am expecting an 80% crash in the housing market! Who in their right mind would borrow to buy a house when all your income just goes to pay the mortgage!
Doubt that level of crash is possible at least in the major metros where there is a huge housing shortage as well
yeah sure. the dollar will have that much purchasing power. i have a bridge to sell u
30% at most
We need different government asap
If Trudeau gets re-elected in 2025, January 6 is happening in Canada
Mrs Olivia is legit and her method works like magic I keep on earning every single week with her new strategy
Buzz off bot!
Sellers are trying to break even or take a loss in some areas like Brampton and Caledon East. The buyers want to steal the property or are waiting for interest rates to come down because they don't qualify for the mortgage.
No really
Welcome to Trudeau's Canada 😐
canada will dodge the recession 😂
Bullshift
Don't forget to vote for Conservatives .
Then put up reasonable conservatives that someone would want to vote for. You have a populist. Ain't nobody got time for that.