Planners only have a 50% chance of improving forecasts.

Planners only have a 50% chance of improving a forecast when modifying it.
Academics say.
That's really low, unfortunately.
This means that the overall added value is low as they have a 50/50 chance of improving or worsening the underlying forecast.
So, what can we do to improve this ratio?
1️⃣ Track Forecast Value Added. Without this, you are in the dark. You know what they say: if you can't measure it, you can't improve it.
2️⃣ Focus on insights: What do you know that your model is not aware of?
3️⃣ Focus on big changes: academics found that small forecast editions don't add value. (I would bet it's because small changes aren't based on specific insights; planners just felt they had to change the forecast.)
4️⃣ Don't shoot/promote the messenger: Academics also realized that positive adjustments were less likely than negative adjustments to add value.
That's likely because we are afraid to bring bad news to the team.
---
If you like this type of content, I think you might enjoy 4 free chapters of my latest book: 'Demand Forecasting Best Practices.'
Get them here: mailchi.mp/sup....
You can also check my three books available on amazon: www.amazon.com...