On board 2, I would have to think before responding, but as I'm ok at the three level, I'm thinking of the line 1c 1s 1nt 2h 2s 3h. And over 1c 1h 1nt I'm completely up the creek!
On board 1 I'm really not sure a heart lead is superior to the spade if you're set on leading a major: east is marked with at least 4 and maybe 5 spades which makes it our potential best source of tricks. It's also just as likely that east and norths spade holdings are switched in which case the lead would set up the suit right away. I'd be interested to see an analysis similar to your stayman video on these kinds of leads; looking at one hand is too results oriented I think
You're overlooking the fact that East can't have 5 spades or they would overcall. Sometimes players would overcall with KQJT (for this reason), and the comment about East and North switching spade holdings is flawed since North is more likely to hold missing high cards and 6 > 4. So a spade lead is definitely out, even if 2% of the time it would be the winner. The problem is much more interesting between the other 3 suits. Clubs is the obvious lead, but the 1NT bid implies clubs and often has a 5-card suit. Diamonds is the main alternative, but the 1D opening bid on your left is worrisome. So that leaves hearts, but you only have 3 of them. I wouldn't consider either of these 3 suits wrong, but a spade is definitely wrong.
@@bradybot0 Thank you for the reply! Doesn't that same argument hold for hearts as well, would they also overcall with KQJT in hearts? I feel like if we're leading a major its to hit partner's holding in that suit. East is marked with either 3 or 4 hearts, but they're marked with 4 spades for sure. Wouldn't that make spades a better potential source of tricks? I know on this particular layout the spade lead looks daft but don't we have to think of the range of all hands rather than this one specific layout?
@@donkstafari It would take an entire book to answer this question in a satisfactory way. The short answer is that our objective isn't always to gamble on setting up defensive tricks. Sometimes we want to make a safe lead or lead the suit we are more likely to have length in. With the opponents known to have 7 spades, we shouldn't lead that suit. The opponents are not known to have 7 hearts so hearts is definitely better than spades.
Enjoyed, thank you.
On board 2, I would have to think before responding, but as I'm ok at the three level, I'm thinking of the line 1c 1s 1nt 2h 2s 3h. And over 1c 1h 1nt I'm completely up the creek!
On board 1 I'm really not sure a heart lead is superior to the spade if you're set on leading a major: east is marked with at least 4 and maybe 5 spades which makes it our potential best source of tricks. It's also just as likely that east and norths spade holdings are switched in which case the lead would set up the suit right away. I'd be interested to see an analysis similar to your stayman video on these kinds of leads; looking at one hand is too results oriented I think
You're overlooking the fact that East can't have 5 spades or they would overcall. Sometimes players would overcall with KQJT (for this reason), and the comment about East and North switching spade holdings is flawed since North is more likely to hold missing high cards and 6 > 4. So a spade lead is definitely out, even if 2% of the time it would be the winner.
The problem is much more interesting between the other 3 suits. Clubs is the obvious lead, but the 1NT bid implies clubs and often has a 5-card suit. Diamonds is the main alternative, but the 1D opening bid on your left is worrisome. So that leaves hearts, but you only have 3 of them. I wouldn't consider either of these 3 suits wrong, but a spade is definitely wrong.
@@bradybot0 Thank you for the reply! Doesn't that same argument hold for hearts as well, would they also overcall with KQJT in hearts? I feel like if we're leading a major its to hit partner's holding in that suit. East is marked with either 3 or 4 hearts, but they're marked with 4 spades for sure. Wouldn't that make spades a better potential source of tricks? I know on this particular layout the spade lead looks daft but don't we have to think of the range of all hands rather than this one specific layout?
@@donkstafari It would take an entire book to answer this question in a satisfactory way. The short answer is that our objective isn't always to gamble on setting up defensive tricks. Sometimes we want to make a safe lead or lead the suit we are more likely to have length in. With the opponents known to have 7 spades, we shouldn't lead that suit. The opponents are not known to have 7 hearts so hearts is definitely better than spades.
Also, can you settle a debate on board 3. Is reopening double planning to then bid hearts absolutely insane or justified?
Insane