I can't believe I missed out Fusion Strike 😢 Box Price $143 and top 10 cards at $576. Giving it a ratio of 4.03. This would sit it in a clear 3rd behind Evolving Skies. Thanks heaps guys!
Making me regret opening some of those Chilling Reign booster boxes I bought and were supposed to be kept sealed lol. Thanks for crunching all the numbers for us!
I think the ratios between Evolving Skies and Chilling Reign shows 2 things. 1. The demand for evolving skies is still high because of the $405 booster box price and singles price. And 2. Chilling Reign is still underrated
I called Chilling Reign a sleeper set when it first came out. It was COMPLETELY overshadowed by Evolving Skies... I knew Chilling Reign had some awesome cards in it, and it was very underrated.
Solid way to analyze the data. It would be cool to do top 5 hits value vs ETB value of special sets. Celebrations is by far and away my favorite set since the end of Sun and Moon and the sealed Celebrations stuff is super collectible on its own, but it wouldn't do great in this stat quite yet lol. Have to wait a couple years for singles from Shining Fates, Celebrations and Crown Zenith to tick back up. That said, Shining Fates is starting to look like a really tempting deal due to its ultra-low price still, and the parallels in art styles of its full art Shiny cards to those of Hidden Fates. Couple dozen baby Shinies, couple dozen full art Shinies. I think one day people are going to go nuts to be able to open those two sets.
Very interesting ratio to box price theory, and I think it's quite a good indicator for the long term future. Assuming a major reprint doesn't happen for the majority of these, I think you're spot on with the Chilling Reign idea. It has something like 20+ cards that are over $20, as well as a few incredible Alt arts, and one of the best and most difficult to pull gold cards in the Snorlax. If one doesn't have any Chilling Reign in their portfolio, definitely add a couple boxes imo. It's going to do insanely good over the long term. Evolving Skies is obviously a lock, and will do incredibly long term. BattleStyles was the sleeper, that especially at the low of $80 or so (Chilling Reign hit sub $90 too), was a great pickup
One suggestion, consider the PSA 10 & PSA 9 price of the top 10 cards and the likelihood of each in the analysis and then the overall value in the set. Thanks for sharing.
it feels like it should be a relevant metric but the market doesn't always have a history of seeing it that way. perhaps that will shift over time to align with average pull value
I think over time it certainly does. The first 3 or so years seems to be like the first 6 matches in a footy season. Everything and everyone is sort of finding its feet...
I think this is good measurement for future set performance, did it with Japanese boxes months ago. Back then Matchless fighters was 70-80$ a box, now u can’t get it for less than $200
Nice analysis - thanks. The additional layer I would like to know is - of those sets, are the top ten cards generally trending up or down in price? I’m sure most are a mixed bag, however, if there is any general trends up (buy like crazy) or down (don’t buy or perhaps sell) that would be insightful. Thanks again! 🤙🏼
Have to admit i new chilling had quite afew hits . But i do a lil different investing Like darkness ablaze looks shit and it has been But not many people will be holding these and they become harder to acquire from my experience (i mainly hold unopened boxes) And seeing rebal trash shoot up like it did. Didnt think it would go that fast. Id say pull rates have a lil sumfin to do with the ratio to 😮 😮 😮
gotta say Chilling Reign surprised me but I do think blaziken price will see a ceiling of $200 for quite a while when Fusion Strike Gengar Vmax alt and Espeon Vmax Alt move north from here so Fusion Strike Could really be that sleeper top #1 pickup for price value. If everyone says chilling reign I gotta go with Fusion Strike just cause of how clean the box looks compared too all the other sword and shield era boxes
@@pokeoz91 Fusion Strike is such a sleeper just cause nobody is looking at it everyone is focused on Chilling Reign but yet celebi v alt just had a buyout was $20 usd now $50 it might be time too go in now while prices stay cheap on fusion
Hello sir, I'm not sure if mentioned but the top hit from darkness ablaze was the rainbow zard wasn't it? Which would bring the top 10 above the box cost if I'm wrong I'm stupid 😅
Great video and interesting content. But, you may have it backwards. If investing always keep sealed. If you applied this formula of to base set shadowless the ratio is 0.1
You've touched on a really interesting point. It will happen with all examples of vintage, like take, skyridge for argument sake. Its ratio won't be as low as Base set, but it's still low compared to modern. The vintage boxes become so scarce that the price far outweighs the hits, even if you pull all 10 top hits. I think then with vintage, a graded metric nearly needs to come into play against the cost of the box. Like all top 10 psa 10 shadowless base cards would outweigh the sealed box price. I do still think that for modern, sword, and shield onwards, it can be a helpful tool to choose a set to invest in 👌
It's so hard to know. We can do some rough calculations, but it's guessing at best. I think demand for a product outweighing supply is maybe a better metric. Unless it's clearly short printed like team up!
It'll definitely go up over time. I'm a sealed investor so my answer is always going to be, keel it sealed and sell when you've achieved the gain you want 😎
The video is just the ratio between the top 10 hits and the box Price. You could also argue, a lower pull rate will increase the singles price as it makes it 'rarer.'
@sattoriemei3210 couldn't agree more, this video was just made to look at the metric but as we all know there's a lot of variable that come into play 👌
@@pokeoz91 oh nice thats a bit more optimistic to me in all fairness. Although probably a much higher population graded in this gen overall giving less price per unit in comparison to S&M XY etc.
I tend to agree. I wouldn't say this exercise is useless, not at all. But average hits per box add a 3rd element, which is pull rate data, so it's a better metric. Danny Phantunp does this really well. I don't have access to opening 1000s of packs for each set, unfortunately.
@@pokeoz91 yeah , my wording was a little harsh, not useless, but i personally think the average pulls to box would be a useful stat as well . As you can only get so many hits out of a single box . And the chase cards are always a gamble.
These figures do have an investability on the boxes. you are exposing one of the best kept secrets in pokemon investing. You might want to take this video down so you don't create a bunch of new investors in the hobby.
I can't believe I missed out Fusion Strike 😢 Box Price $143 and top 10 cards at $576. Giving it a ratio of 4.03. This would sit it in a clear 3rd behind Evolving Skies. Thanks heaps guys!
It's okay, everyone forgets Pokemon #151.
Great vid man
143$ AUD?
@@comandoLadillaUSD
My dude, this is EXACTLY my language. This whole way of eval-ing is what I understand and remember best. Thank you so much!
Welcome bro!
Making me regret opening some of those Chilling Reign booster boxes I bought and were supposed to be kept sealed lol. Thanks for crunching all the numbers for us!
Haha that's OK bro. I hope you at least pulled a sweet alt art! 🤞
I think the ratios between Evolving Skies and Chilling Reign shows 2 things. 1. The demand for evolving skies is still high because of the $405 booster box price and singles price. And 2. Chilling Reign is still underrated
Everyone is chasing that Moonbreon 😉
Pull rate is low😢
@PokeAnto96 not great in both sets hey!
I called Chilling Reign a sleeper set when it first came out. It was COMPLETELY overshadowed by Evolving Skies... I knew Chilling Reign had some awesome cards in it, and it was very underrated.
Yeah it's a great set man! 👌
"Dont wanna make this video too long... nek minit 'Quick story'" haha. Another awesome vid mate.
Hahaha thanks man. I was pumped for him though, jealous but pumped 😅
Solid way to analyze the data. It would be cool to do top 5 hits value vs ETB value of special sets. Celebrations is by far and away my favorite set since the end of Sun and Moon and the sealed Celebrations stuff is super collectible on its own, but it wouldn't do great in this stat quite yet lol. Have to wait a couple years for singles from Shining Fates, Celebrations and Crown Zenith to tick back up. That said, Shining Fates is starting to look like a really tempting deal due to its ultra-low price still, and the parallels in art styles of its full art Shiny cards to those of Hidden Fates. Couple dozen baby Shinies, couple dozen full art Shinies. I think one day people are going to go nuts to be able to open those two sets.
And Skyla seems to be making a move in Shining Fates as well 👌
Very interesting ratio to box price theory, and I think it's quite a good indicator for the long term future. Assuming a major reprint doesn't happen for the majority of these, I think you're spot on with the Chilling Reign idea. It has something like 20+ cards that are over $20, as well as a few incredible Alt arts, and one of the best and most difficult to pull gold cards in the Snorlax. If one doesn't have any Chilling Reign in their portfolio, definitely add a couple boxes imo. It's going to do insanely good over the long term. Evolving Skies is obviously a lock, and will do incredibly long term. BattleStyles was the sleeper, that especially at the low of $80 or so (Chilling Reign hit sub $90 too), was a great pickup
Certainly agree mate, some very good points 👌
Exactly the video I need. Keep it up
Thanks man 👌
My man, an updated version of this video for all of SWSH, and a separate one for all of SV so far, would kill it 👍
That's a great idea, I'll add it to the list!
@pokeoz91 looking forward to it!
Very smart way to analyze each set and their current value. Going to see how cheap I can get a few boxes of chilling pain after seeing this
It's starting to head up a bit!
The darkness ablaze example shows how card prices don't necessarily impact sealed pricing, still interesting to see these metrics
Exactly right!
One suggestion, consider the PSA 10 & PSA 9 price of the top 10 cards and the likelihood of each in the analysis and then the overall value in the set. Thanks for sharing.
That's another way to look at it. Thanks heaps! 👌
it feels like it should be a relevant metric but the market doesn't always have a history of seeing it that way. perhaps that will shift over time to align with average pull value
I think over time it certainly does. The first 3 or so years seems to be like the first 6 matches in a footy season. Everything and everyone is sort of finding its feet...
I think this is good measurement for future set performance, did it with Japanese boxes months ago. Back then Matchless fighters was 70-80$ a box, now u can’t get it for less than $200
Oh nice, you did it on your channel?
I got an unopened sword & shield figure collection box. With the pikachu promo card on the front. Feel like it’s gone up pretty well in price.
Nice mate!
@@pokeoz91 hopefully it keeps going up lol 🙏🏻
absolutely amazing video what a simple but smart way of looking at these box values :0
Thanks legend!
I like your videos. Keep it up!
Thanks heaps mate, them continue coming through!
Wow...Battlestyles is still cheap at my comic shop. I'll grab that box soon. Great content thanks
It's still cheap everywhere! I really don't think it's that bad a set 👌
Nice analysis - thanks. The additional layer I would like to know is - of those sets, are the top ten cards generally trending up or down in price? I’m sure most are a mixed bag, however, if there is any general trends up (buy like crazy) or down (don’t buy or perhaps sell) that would be insightful. Thanks again! 🤙🏼
You're welcome man! Would be interesting to look into that as well!
Have to admit i new chilling had quite afew hits .
But i do a lil different investing
Like darkness ablaze looks shit and it has been
But not many people will be holding these and they become harder to acquire from my experience (i mainly hold unopened boxes)
And seeing rebal trash shoot up like it did. Didnt think it would go that fast.
Id say pull rates have a lil sumfin to do with the ratio to
😮 😮 😮
Oh mate, there's always some outliers that's for sure. Who would have thought with rebel clash. Demand overpowered supply quickly there!
gotta say Chilling Reign surprised me but I do think blaziken price will see a ceiling of $200 for quite a while when Fusion Strike Gengar Vmax alt and Espeon Vmax Alt move north from here so Fusion Strike Could really be that sleeper top #1 pickup for price value. If everyone says chilling reign I gotta go with Fusion Strike just cause of how clean the box looks compared too all the other sword and shield era boxes
I just checked on ebay here in aus and you can pick up fusion strike for under $200 still. It's definitely a good pick up !
@@pokeoz91 Fusion Strike is such a sleeper just cause nobody is looking at it everyone is focused on Chilling Reign but yet celebi v alt just had a buyout was $20 usd now $50 it might be time too go in now while prices stay cheap on fusion
Chilling reign wow. Booster box price action to follow soon. Evolving skies is king, collectors want the best.
Everyone chasing those big hits from Evo Skies 👌
Hello sir, I'm not sure if mentioned but the top hit from darkness ablaze was the rainbow zard wasn't it? Which would bring the top 10 above the box cost if I'm wrong I'm stupid 😅
Hey man, no rainbow zard in darkness ablaze. Just the full art vmax 👌
Great video!
Thanks heaps for the feedback 🙂
Great video and interesting content. But, you may have it backwards. If investing always keep sealed. If you applied this formula of to base set shadowless the ratio is 0.1
You've touched on a really interesting point. It will happen with all examples of vintage, like take, skyridge for argument sake. Its ratio won't be as low as Base set, but it's still low compared to modern. The vintage boxes become so scarce that the price far outweighs the hits, even if you pull all 10 top hits. I think then with vintage, a graded metric nearly needs to come into play against the cost of the box. Like all top 10 psa 10 shadowless base cards would outweigh the sealed box price. I do still think that for modern, sword, and shield onwards, it can be a helpful tool to choose a set to invest in 👌
Mate did the prices skyrocket since this video? Everything on your list has nearly doubled! Good timing? :D
Sword and Shield is on the cusp of going up even more. Buy as much as you can!
Yup 🎉
👌
Can you talk more about japanese boxes
I'm getting into those a bit more! I really want to be a bit more of an expert on them first 👌
What l want to know is which sets are low print/reprint.
It's so hard to know. We can do some rough calculations, but it's guessing at best. I think demand for a product outweighing supply is maybe a better metric. Unless it's clearly short printed like team up!
@@pokeoz91 do us all a favour Pokémon and short print some modern sets 🙏
Good video thanks
Welcome man!
I know not english but vstar universe top 10 cards $1000 give or take....BB is $110
Amazing ratio!
How much they printed of a set will drastically change its rarity. Supply and demand.
Look at vivid voltage hey.... I hope the final sword and shield sets don't get with the same reprints. Would be a shame!
What is the formula you use?
Oo mate, this is a little while ago. I think I explain the formula in the video though 😎
Please do the same vid but for ETB's of SWSH era. 🙂
I definitely will 👌
Great video 👍
Thanks heaps man!
Lost orgin is going to be the next team up box. Going heavy on them with the next reprint of lost orgin.
Just remember, Team Up was really short printed. Especially for modern. If Lost Origin gets a big reprint, I don't think it'll be in the same league 😢
I got a evolving skies booster box should I sell it or do you think it will increase in value over time
It'll definitely go up over time. I'm a sealed investor so my answer is always going to be, keel it sealed and sell when you've achieved the gain you want 😎
Keep it sealed. I got 10 ES BB so if we both hold the price will keep going up! 🎉
What about fusion strike mate?
I know, I can't believe I missed it. I did pin a comment with its ratio, which would put it firmly in 3rd spot. Thanks heaps!
U didn't mention fusion strike !
I know, good pick up! there's a comment in the comment section with FS 👌
So you are assuming that all of the hits in every set have the same probability...
The video is just the ratio between the top 10 hits and the box Price. You could also argue, a lower pull rate will increase the singles price as it makes it 'rarer.'
@@pokeoz91 True, but there is also the print run factor for each set. Too many variables imo to base it off just a ratio.
@sattoriemei3210 couldn't agree more, this video was just made to look at the metric but as we all know there's a lot of variable that come into play 👌
Are the top ten based on raw or graded prices?
I should have mentioned sorry, just raw prices 👌
@@pokeoz91 oh nice thats a bit more optimistic to me in all fairness. Although probably a much higher population graded in this gen overall giving less price per unit in comparison to S&M XY etc.
@Goodsgameshop definitely, so many graded cards in sword and shield. Will be interesting to see what happens with the prices...
You forgot Fusion Strike set
Oh man, how could I forget fusion strike. Hold on, let me pin a comment 👌
You forgot fusion strike :O
Oh man, I did too. Let me pin a Comment 👌
My rankings:
1) Evolving Skies
2) Fusion Strike
3) Brilliant Stars
4) Lost Origin
5) Chilling Reign
6) Silver Tempest
7) Vivid Voltage
8) Astral Radiance
9) Battle Styles
10) Sword Shield Base
11) Darkness Ablaze
12) Rebel Clash
I like those rankings 👌
I think the average pulls to box ratio is a more useful one ....top 10 pulls to box is a useless thing .
I tend to agree. I wouldn't say this exercise is useless, not at all. But average hits per box add a 3rd element, which is pull rate data, so it's a better metric. Danny Phantunp does this really well. I don't have access to opening 1000s of packs for each set, unfortunately.
@@pokeoz91 yeah , my wording was a little harsh, not useless, but i personally think the average pulls to box would be a useful stat as well . As you can only get so many hits out of a single box . And the chase cards are always a gamble.
@saatvik6710 agree mate! 👌
Chilling reign pull rate is low
A lot of the sword and shield sets with trainer galleries were unfortunately 🥺
x1.25
Trust me
👌
These figures do have an investability on the boxes. you are exposing one of the best kept secrets in pokemon investing. You might want to take this video down so you don't create a bunch of new investors in the hobby.
Haha thanks for the feedback man 👌