Massive shoutouts to our first new FPL BlackBox members - @Nigel_The_Crab and @water4722. Can you both email me - az@fplblackbox.com for the WhatsApp code and your personal welcome videos!!
Hey Josh, it’s mostly just set up as a way for people to support the stream if they’d like! But set up 3 tiers: 2.99 - emojis and status badge 4.99 above and WhatsApp group 9.99 above and welcome message from me and mark
I'm a Liverpool supporter with no Liverpool. I think the team is very much an unknown at this point. We have way more attacking options now. While Salah's minutes are guaranteed he's not going to have the same chemistry as he had in previous seasons. Every time our team is changed, every time an area gets a revamp, new players coming in. It takes a season for them to gel. We're replacing 5 long term central midfielders. This is a massive change. Last year was a big change losing Mane. This is a bigger one. So, for me, there have to be doubts. Liverpool have been so great because of their chemistry and familiarity. That's gone because of this massive rebuild. Obviously I hope that we hit the ground running and all the new signings gel instantly. But you have to classify Liverpool as a gamble right now. Plus fixtures are bad. I hope I have Trent and Salah at some point in the season but I don't need them at the start.
Yeah it’s well said! I’m a Liverpool supporter too and just think I’ve got to have one Liverpool player in because the enjoyment factor of FPL is important to me
@@benhoare7951 I read an article on the Athletic yesterday saying that we'd turned down all offers for Conor Bradley. It looks like he may be breaking into the first team this season. The article speculated that Trent would play in midfield with Bradley fighting to become first choice RB. I went straight to FPL to check his price and he wasn't even in the game. He could be the best 4.0 and would give me my Liverpool quota. Thanks for your kind words. I was half expecting to catch some flak for my comment.
Ty 4 sharing m8, Jota seems irresistible, ur defense seems woeful so i would avoid TAA, Nkunku & Jesus both injured so i have GAKPO, considering changing bruno to Jota in GW2
@@adoRED019 why are you ignoring Arsenal who finished 2nd and who were the first team we used that new formation against? We also inflicted upon them their worst xGA of any game that season.
When TAA was 8m (though I think that is the correct price for him, based on points history and it makes you think about him) I never put him in a draft as I thought there'd be better value in midfield, Salah was the second player in my team after Haaland and will be in it in GW1 as a set and forget. Am building my team around those two again this season, don't quite understand the 'dropping Salah to get good value from worse midfielders than him' drafts that 'everyone' seems to be going for. My bold prediction is Salah will get around 300pts this season
value innit, buying Salah at that price means the rest of your team suffers, better to get players who get good points per mil, which premium players generally don't.
@@MrBigSeanno not all about points per mill though, I'd rather take a player going be the highest scoring midfielder and get at least over 220pts guaranteed as a floor... 🤷♂️ Also gives me another captaincy option instead of just relying on Haaland
@@KieranWest185 to each their own, everyone's going to play their own game, but for me, personally, I'd take mids that are 8.5-9m that will get within 30-40 points if Salah, maybe even closer going off last season. As it gives you more funds to go elsewhere. In a game where you have a limited budget I'd say it is all about points per mil, in my opinion he should only be considered if you're going to be regularly captaining him, which I doubt most people will unless Haaland gets injured. Or if Liverpool have a significantly good run of fixtures/double game weeks.
This is not only by far the best FPL podcast but also a great football show. It does come down eventually to FPL, but it is an informative and knowledgeable football talk as well.
What if we're making the same mistake with midfielders this year, that we did with defenders last year? That the last years midfield point boost is an anomaly and it will be evened out between forwards and defenders, as it did the previous season with defenders.
Love that you are using Saints 3rd kit colours for the UI this season while we dip briefly (please for the love of god just one season this time) into the Championship. ;)
Thanks Mark for your fascinating analysis - there is no doubt Salah and Trent are to be feared if they fire but your teams have made me crunch the numbers and the only fair comparison as Jesus was injured and Joao Pedro played two seasons ago is to compare points per match. Template draft - Fernandes 4.8 / Mbeumo 3.9 / Jesus 4.8 = *13.5* Trent draft - Trent 4.2 / Mbeumo 3.9 / Jesus 4.8 = *12.9* Salah draft - Tarkovski 2.8 / Salah 6.3 / Joao Pedro 3 = *12.1* But of course we never know. Even we look at pre-season, they are not playing premier league-level opposition. And based on this comparison, the difference in price cannot deliver value unless they produce Haaland-level numbers.
RE Havertz… I think he’ll probably start against teams where we will dominate the ball (I.E Forrest), and will pose a good attacking threat. The main issue is he probably won’t start in the big games, so it depends if you are happy and able to deal with some benchings
Bruno's goal involvement numbers were heavily skewed by the xA underperformance (which is through no fault of his own). His expected goal involvement percentage was roughly 37.4%. if Hojlund can offer the movement in behind in the inside right channel and central spaces that Rashy does on the left, Bruno would score BIG. Attacks are more diversified in top end teams anyway unless you're THE GUY.
EO or Effective Ownership plays a part for sure but primarily we’re talking risks against EV or projected points and xMins expected minutes first and foremost.
They're saying that because they think that's how you can get the most points and more consistently. If you want to play it different and more risky becuase you find that more enjoyable then that's your choice and you can do that. It's just what they've seen from previous times is the best way to gain points.
We always show non-pen stats as adding in xG from pens can over inflate the stat. They are tough to predict, so much better to focus on npxG and you can factor them in as another boon when considering him (Az)
I think the data used for the Salah comparison is misleading. Liverpool had some amazing fixtures in their last 9 games, playing each of the relegated teams along with forest and fulham. The jump in the data might be down to just Liverpool having the best fixtures and that has not been considered here.
You shouldn't make fun of people picking differential, this is why all teams are the same. People are to scared to go with their cut because they are belittled in the community
Is too much being made of Liverpool from pre and post GW30? Look at the fixtures. You'd expect Liverpool to perform well given their run in and having their best players fit. It was that easy run in which had some pundits believe they could overhaul Man Utd or Newcastle to get top 4.
@danwilliams5575 Ask him He was 330k a week, I think he's still asking for that much money so no club is willing to pay that. What is Onana salary? I'd say 100k a week. De Gea was amazing last season, win the golden glove. What do u want more. United will regret selling him. Even Henderson is better than Onana
Massive shoutouts to our first new FPL BlackBox members - @Nigel_The_Crab and @water4722.
Can you both email me - az@fplblackbox.com for the WhatsApp code and your personal welcome videos!!
Hi Az, could you share what are the benefits of being a member? thanks
Hey Josh, it’s mostly just set up as a way for people to support the stream if they’d like!
But set up 3 tiers:
2.99 - emojis and status badge
4.99 above and WhatsApp group
9.99 above and welcome message from me and mark
Brilliant podcast, so much useful info compared to other creators in such a saturated scene 👍
Mark Sutherns, the king, is BACK. Brilliant analysis Mark.
I'm a Liverpool supporter with no Liverpool. I think the team is very much an unknown at this point. We have way more attacking options now. While Salah's minutes are guaranteed he's not going to have the same chemistry as he had in previous seasons. Every time our team is changed, every time an area gets a revamp, new players coming in. It takes a season for them to gel. We're replacing 5 long term central midfielders. This is a massive change. Last year was a big change losing Mane. This is a bigger one. So, for me, there have to be doubts. Liverpool have been so great because of their chemistry and familiarity. That's gone because of this massive rebuild. Obviously I hope that we hit the ground running and all the new signings gel instantly. But you have to classify Liverpool as a gamble right now. Plus fixtures are bad. I hope I have Trent and Salah at some point in the season but I don't need them at the start.
Yeah it’s well said! I’m a Liverpool supporter too and just think I’ve got to have one Liverpool player in because the enjoyment factor of FPL is important to me
@@benhoare7951 I read an article on the Athletic yesterday saying that we'd turned down all offers for Conor Bradley. It looks like he may be breaking into the first team this season. The article speculated that Trent would play in midfield with Bradley fighting to become first choice RB. I went straight to FPL to check his price and he wasn't even in the game. He could be the best 4.0 and would give me my Liverpool quota.
Thanks for your kind words. I was half expecting to catch some flak for my comment.
Ty 4 sharing m8, Jota seems irresistible, ur defense seems woeful so i would avoid TAA, Nkunku & Jesus both injured so i have GAKPO, considering changing bruno to Jota in GW2
How many “changes” until u start being successful again. At some point u have to compete wel with what u have and make minor changes
A solid one and a good one to start with for the FPL managers who hasnt been exposed to any content so far !
Thing with the GW30-38 data for Liverpool is how easy that run was. Played teams near the bottom for the run-in.
They played 5 top half teams and 5 bottom half teams.
@advenco344 Last 9 games the highest place team they played was 7th and that was at home. Couldn't have had a better run-in.
@@adoRED019 why are you ignoring Arsenal who finished 2nd and who were the first team we used that new formation against? We also inflicted upon them their worst xGA of any game that season.
@@advenco344 How many points did he get in that game?
@@adoRED019 who?
When TAA was 8m (though I think that is the correct price for him, based on points history and it makes you think about him) I never put him in a draft as I thought there'd be better value in midfield, Salah was the second player in my team after Haaland and will be in it in GW1 as a set and forget.
Am building my team around those two again this season, don't quite understand the 'dropping Salah to get good value from worse midfielders than him' drafts that 'everyone' seems to be going for.
My bold prediction is Salah will get around 300pts this season
value innit, buying Salah at that price means the rest of your team suffers, better to get players who get good points per mil, which premium players generally don't.
@@MrBigSeanno not all about points per mill though, I'd rather take a player going be the highest scoring midfielder and get at least over 220pts guaranteed as a floor... 🤷♂️
Also gives me another captaincy option instead of just relying on Haaland
@@KieranWest185 to each their own, everyone's going to play their own game, but for me, personally, I'd take mids that are 8.5-9m that will get within 30-40 points if Salah, maybe even closer going off last season. As it gives you more funds to go elsewhere. In a game where you have a limited budget I'd say it is all about points per mil, in my opinion he should only be considered if you're going to be regularly captaining him, which I doubt most people will unless Haaland gets injured. Or if Liverpool have a significantly good run of fixtures/double game weeks.
This is not only by far the best FPL podcast but also a great football show. It does come down eventually to FPL, but it is an informative and knowledgeable football talk as well.
Thats really kind, thank you! (Az)
What if we're making the same mistake with midfielders this year, that we did with defenders last year? That the last years midfield point boost is an anomaly and it will be evened out between forwards and defenders, as it did the previous season with defenders.
Love that you are using Saints 3rd kit colours for the UI this season while we dip briefly (please for the love of god just one season this time) into the Championship. ;)
We think Kane is going right? So why isnt Richarlison in the template until we hear otherwise. Im moving funds around now so i have a plan
Salah does have a great record against the top 6 teams.
Woo Hoo another South African
Subscribed and I will tune in to that
Cheers for the content lads, looking forward to Blackbox road to 50k
Thanks Mark for your fascinating analysis - there is no doubt Salah and Trent are to be feared if they fire but your teams have made me crunch the numbers and the only fair comparison as Jesus was injured and Joao Pedro played two seasons ago is to compare points per match.
Template draft - Fernandes 4.8 / Mbeumo 3.9 / Jesus 4.8 = *13.5*
Trent draft - Trent 4.2 / Mbeumo 3.9 / Jesus 4.8 = *12.9*
Salah draft - Tarkovski 2.8 / Salah 6.3 / Joao Pedro 3 = *12.1*
But of course we never know. Even we look at pre-season, they are not playing premier league-level opposition. And based on this comparison, the difference in price cannot deliver value unless they produce Haaland-level numbers.
thanks guys, great vid as per usual!
Excellent pod! Thoughts of Salah are flooding my thoughts 😂
Yet another fantastic content. Cheers gentlemen
Yes you can move off Salah onto anyone but you can also move off Rashford/Bruno/Saka/Odegard onto pretty much anyone as well.
So, what happened between GW 20 and 30? Salah and Trent didn't exist?
Great content! Thank you, gents.
Great podcast once again. Mark with great analysis 👍
Cheers 🍻 gents😀👍👍
RE Havertz… I think he’ll probably start against teams where we will dominate the ball (I.E Forrest), and will pose a good attacking threat. The main issue is he probably won’t start in the big games, so it depends if you are happy and able to deal with some benchings
CURRENT ROUGH DRAFT:
GK: Onana
DEF: Gabriel, Estupinan, Stones
MID: Mbuemo, Rashford, Enciso, Martinelli, Salah(V)
FWD: Haaland(C), Nkunku
BENCH: Areola, Beyer, Mbabu, Mubama
Bruno's goal involvement numbers were heavily skewed by the xA underperformance (which is through no fault of his own). His expected goal involvement percentage was roughly 37.4%. if Hojlund can offer the movement in behind in the inside right channel and central spaces that Rashy does on the left, Bruno would score BIG. Attacks are more diversified in top end teams anyway unless you're THE GUY.
Re Salah draft - Id switch Rashford/Gibbs White to Foden/Martinelli. Although I really want Gibbs for those two games. Great differential.
"Limit risks" and "Don't be swayed by high ownerships" seem a bit contradicting, or am I missing something. Great stuff as always!
EO or Effective Ownership plays a part for sure but primarily we’re talking risks against EV or projected points and xMins expected minutes first and foremost.
@@marksutherns6583 Alright, that makes sense!
They're saying that because they think that's how you can get the most points and more consistently. If you want to play it different and more risky becuase you find that more enjoyable then that's your choice and you can do that. It's just what they've seen from previous times is the best way to gain points.
I guess they mean something in the middle
Great content as always. Just a shame the audio mixing was a bit dodgy. Az too quiet. Had to turn the volume up and down constantly
Great pod 👍🏼 Why show non penalty stats for Bruno vs Odegaard when former is on pens?
We always show non-pen stats as adding in xG from pens can over inflate the stat. They are tough to predict, so much better to focus on npxG and you can factor them in as another boon when considering him (Az)
I've gone 3 premium, 3 4 3 and I love it ... gonna be gutted if/when kane goes
az is Van Hecke 4.0 going to play fpr Brighton next season?
How have I not been subbed to this
Ultimate flexibility is 3 forwards. If Jesus starts well how will you get in the other striker that pops off?
I’ve got Haaland, Watkins, Pedro and 2m ITB. (Matinellj, Saka, gab)
I think the data used for the Salah comparison is misleading. Liverpool had some amazing fixtures in their last 9 games, playing each of the relegated teams along with forest and fulham. The jump in the data might be down to just Liverpool having the best fixtures and that has not been considered here.
starts @ 2:44
Havertz lol, I worry about AZ sometimes.
You shouldn't make fun of people picking differential, this is why all teams are the same. People are to scared to go with their cut because they are belittled in the community
2:45 starts
Oh no 😮Salah heat map and chances with Trent inverted….wow now I have to rip up my team….thanks Mark 😂😂
Mark saying he left Twitter to not get influenced and go template but ends up with the template of all templates. Even him of all people
Some very similar content here to Above Average a couple of weeks back, did you notice?
Chilwell on the bench just seems crazy to me
For Az, just downgrade one of the defenders to upgrade Havertz > Martinelli/Odegaard. You can only play 3 every week...
Every engaged FPL-er will have Salah/Saka/Haaland before GW1.
TAA is a dreadful "dedicated 6".
Klopp said he will be RB.
Is too much being made of Liverpool from pre and post GW30? Look at the fixtures. You'd expect Liverpool to perform well given their run in and having their best players fit. It was that easy run in which had some pundits believe they could overhaul Man Utd or Newcastle to get top 4.
Bruno to Foden Havertz to Martinelli .5 in the bank
J.P plus Wissa plus Erling. Anyone?
The new penalty rule killed pernades returns
whats the new rule?
@@tahiribnmohammad5410 few years back that stopped giving soft pens so pernades goals dried up be cause he used to get pens every other week
Mark needs to sort that barnet out, wtf is that
Another season where I finish higher than mark Sutherns with less than half the effort
well this season you can finish first with the same effort 🤣
Mitoma> buendia, havertz> martinelli
De Gea is better than Onana
So why is he unemployed still?
@danwilliams5575
Ask him
He was 330k a week, I think he's still asking for that much money so no club is willing to pay that.
What is Onana salary? I'd say 100k a week.
De Gea was amazing last season, win the golden glove. What do u want more.
United will regret selling him.
Even Henderson is better than Onana
@@husseinmohammed8654 Can tell you don't watch or understand football.
Amateur from you AZ!!!! How can you swap Mitoma to Pedro when they are in different positions!!!??
Mitoma -> 4.5 mid, Mubamba -> Pedro
Saves a cool £1.0m
Herp derp