Interesting video Phil. I completely agree with you on ignoring companies cutting earnings. 2022/1st half 2023 I almost completely avoided anything with falling EPS forecasts. Saved me a fortune! Now It looks like UK markets are possibly at the start of more bullish phase im being less strict, looking out 6-12 months. Time will tell if thats the correct call tho. I was +2.3% for April. S&P tracker (only US holding) was hit much the same as your US stocks so that was a bit of a drag on much better UK price movements. Had to be expected tho after a great run youll always get a 5-10% correction eventually. Generally expect ~3x 5% corrections a year and at least one 10%. Keep the videos coming, always interesting to see how other investors see things.
Thanks for the comment Wolf. That's interesting regarding looking out 6-12 months. It certainly makes a lot of sense to me if a companies forward guidance is for accelerated growth, even if their current results aren't great. Have you had success with that in the past? Continued excellent results, well done! I'm hoping I can move up into your league once I get my strategy nailed down & actually start executing properly.
@@PhilPerryInvestor Hi Phil. Id say it depends on where we are in the investment cycle, 2022 was all about protecting gains so Id be less inclined to give any company the benefit of the doubt in a down market. Prefer to see actual beats in forecasts. Now the market is looking forward to falling interest rates etc can afford to be a little more loose I think. UK market looks like it bottomed in Oct 2023 so the best gains are usually made 12-24 months from the bottom. US market is well ahead of UK. Of course I could easily be wrong so would need to change strategy if so. I focus mainly on EPS growth/earning upgrades, thats usually the fuel to outperform the market consistently, combined with charts. A also use MACD as a buy/sell indicator. Love your colour coded earnings by the way, I do something similar with sharepad but much prefer the way you do it so might have to steal that idea:) Theres always tweaks and improvements to make no matter how long you do this, its a neverending learning process. If you enjoy the process, keep compounding gains, then youll succeed .
@WolfofSmallStreet-tg5pi I think I may need to add some form of indicator for upgrades. It's usually caught by accelerating earnings / sales, though there are those times when they are upgrading from a low base and the stock still fly's. I have experimented with MACD in the past, amazing how many different strategies there are out there. I guess it's just about finding what works for you, totally agree it's a never ending learning process. I'm very much enjoying it. I've been reading up on how to read market cycles to give myself a better idea of where we are, rather than trusting the media, who seem to be wrong far more often than right. More how to spot the pivot points as you've mentioned. Realising more and more that any strategy will likely need tweaking depending on where we are in a market cycle. Feel free to steal the colour coding idea :)
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Interesting video Phil. I completely agree with you on ignoring companies cutting earnings. 2022/1st half 2023 I almost completely avoided anything with falling EPS forecasts. Saved me a fortune!
Now It looks like UK markets are possibly at the start of more bullish phase im being less strict, looking out 6-12 months. Time will tell if thats the correct call tho.
I was +2.3% for April. S&P tracker (only US holding) was hit much the same as your US stocks so that was a bit of a drag on much better UK price movements. Had to be expected tho after a great run youll always get a 5-10% correction eventually. Generally expect ~3x 5% corrections a year and at least one 10%.
Keep the videos coming, always interesting to see how other investors see things.
Thanks for the comment Wolf. That's interesting regarding looking out 6-12 months. It certainly makes a lot of sense to me if a companies forward guidance is for accelerated growth, even if their current results aren't great. Have you had success with that in the past? Continued excellent results, well done! I'm hoping I can move up into your league once I get my strategy nailed down & actually start executing properly.
@@PhilPerryInvestor Hi Phil. Id say it depends on where we are in the investment cycle, 2022 was all about protecting gains so Id be less inclined to give any company the benefit of the doubt in a down market. Prefer to see actual beats in forecasts. Now the market is looking forward to falling interest rates etc can afford to be a little more loose I think. UK market looks like it bottomed in Oct 2023 so the best gains are usually made 12-24 months from the bottom. US market is well ahead of UK. Of course I could easily be wrong so would need to change strategy if so.
I focus mainly on EPS growth/earning upgrades, thats usually the fuel to outperform the market consistently, combined with charts. A also use MACD as a buy/sell indicator.
Love your colour coded earnings by the way, I do something similar with sharepad but much prefer the way you do it so might have to steal that idea:) Theres always tweaks and improvements to make no matter how long you do this, its a neverending learning process. If you enjoy the process, keep compounding gains, then youll succeed .
@WolfofSmallStreet-tg5pi I think I may need to add some form of indicator for upgrades. It's usually caught by accelerating earnings / sales, though there are those times when they are upgrading from a low base and the stock still fly's. I have experimented with MACD in the past, amazing how many different strategies there are out there. I guess it's just about finding what works for you, totally agree it's a never ending learning process. I'm very much enjoying it.
I've been reading up on how to read market cycles to give myself a better idea of where we are, rather than trusting the media, who seem to be wrong far more often than right. More how to spot the pivot points as you've mentioned. Realising more and more that any strategy will likely need tweaking depending on where we are in a market cycle.
Feel free to steal the colour coding idea :)