Bill Gross: We have a serious problem ahead, not just monetarily but fiscally
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ย. 2024
- An exclusive conversation with PIMCO co-founder and legendary bond investor Bill Gross on everything from Fed policy to what he's buying right now. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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If your investing experience is less than 10 years start with 5-6 portfolio. Don't bet big on any single company, learn the process first. Initial diversification is not bad, it really worked for me during my early years. Remember that protection of capital is a must. Good luck!
You really sound like an expert, What Even is a portfolio? I’m completely new to stocks and crypto, but I know I can make money off of it. Please can you guide me? Like for a first grader😊I understand people might laugh but I just wanna learn!
@@leemarty2765 🤣🤣
@@leemarty2765 Investment needs intensive research, charting, and then to understand theta decay on options etc. so much to explain my friend. Hiring a coach maybe the correct route for you. But it’s all over the web just not in order.
@@stricklandpilman2123 Thank you for that. I feel more informed than before ,. I don't have any financial expert in mind, do you share?
@@leemarty2765 I had many breakthrough working with Rosemary Carlson, you can look the name up online and subsequently contact her.
I'M NEW TO BTC AND I'VE BEEN MAKING LOSSES TRYING TO MAKE PROFIT MYSELF IN TRADING...I THOUGHT TRADING ON DEMO ACCOUNT IS JUST LIKE TRADING THE REAL MARKET... CAN ANYONE HELP ME OUT OR AT LEAST ADVICE ME ON WHAT TO DO?
All you need as a beginner to make good profit from cryptocurrency is a professional trader who will trade on your behalf else you may make losses.
That is true, you need an expert trader to make good profit from cryptocurrency trade
And this is the perfect time to invest in cryptocurrency because of the rise in cryptocurrency.
Get an expert trader who will trade for you while you receive the profit. That's the best way to make good profit from cryptocurrency
Investment,
How can someone know a professional trader that is trustworthy when legit ones are hard to find this days.
When interest rates are so low you have no choice but to buy stocks. Saving money will literally get eaten away by inflation no matter what you do with a bank. Even CDs pay less than 1% per year; abysmal. We have no choice but to invest and that's by design. That way everyone is propping up the markets.
OK but how about when the market crashes lol
But who can make 15% return?? Smh
@@eljefe5858 Pelosi who’s the most profitable hedge fund owner alive. Duh.
@@peterpiper3790 if the FED baby start rates at 10% to 20% like Russia!
@@tioswift3676 Dude, if you think either side of the aisle isn't playing dirty pool, I have a bridge to sell you. Cut the Dems/Reps crap, both major American parties are self-serving less a few (on each side) true public servants.
I used to work with Bill Gross. Glad to still hear his voice of reason and intelligence.
Damn right! All hail the King!
he bought bitcoin. but have you?
That fact that anyone would think that pumping a stagnant economy full of dollars that were simply printed without representing ANY actual production or labor whatsoever and keeping interest LOWER than inflation was a good idea....is almost baffling. Even without a war, clearly this was going to end in a financial catastrophe.
Just kicking the can down the road!
The ruling class care more about keeping their false lifestyle going than balancing the books. They were driven by high salaries & a bonus structure that’s absolute madness and reckless. Their just repeating 2008/9 mistakes.
This is much trickier than it sounds. For example, you MUST consider the velocity of money, that is, how quickly is money being spent as opposed to saved. Economists keep track of this, somehow, I can't imagine how.
@@artmaltman there would be no reason at all to believe anyone would be saving anything. For 3 reasons: 1) it's "free money" in most people's minds 2) savings interest rates are dismal 3) inflation is high. Even if you're smart enough to realize there is no such thing as "free money", you're still better off spending the "free money" due to the fact it's value will diminish due to mass inflation. So you're damned if you do, damned if you don't spend the money. Again, all of this is why the "free handouts" are a terrible idea. Sure, it jump starts the economy out of the and makes people feel better temporarily, but ultimately you'll pay the price down the road in the form of inflation, shortages, etc. Literally just kicking the can down the road and letting the problem grow over time.
As opposed to not supporting the economy during COVID and letting unemployment hit 25-30% with the DOW at 15k? And what do you mean its not supported by production? Millions of people kept their jobs because of the fiscal support, do you think those people sit around and do nothing all day at work?
If inflation is a problem, paying off some debt through tightening should snuff out the excess demand. And we have no shortage of debt. But current sentiment does not recognize that we are in a state of excess demand due to carefully crafted inequality. I.e. people in great need are not experiencing excess demand obviously, but a small percentage is, by design. Let’s just say, some rich cats are getting so good at vacuuming up wealth, it’s almost too good, and may backfire.
The "excess demand" is artificial purchasing power due to the Fed throwing printing press money at the economy.
As for "carefully crafted" wealth concentration, it is a product of the Fed's adherence to the wrong-headed wealth effect doctrine. Artificially low rates result in asset price appreciation. The assets that the Fed inflates are mostly held by the wealthy.
@@josephpeeler5434 bingo... 100% correct.
A mild recession? He may be the expert, but it feels like we’re in for a worse time than that.
We live in a profoundly corrupt political / monetary system if small savers have their wealth stored in bank accounts confiscated by inflation while leveraged real asset holders maintain the value of their assets. That is simply not fair
Fiat currency always erodes. So, you buy assets or businesses to protect the value. gold, gravel, forest, or a bakery that makes bread. Each has to raise prices to account for inflation. So, the paper currency slowly erodes in value. Therefore, one should only keep some money in cash, while carefully investing the surplus. But, the corruption...yes, it's there...it always has been. Therefore diversify and avoid hype and momentum.
@@dagsterblaster4973 This💯
That’s exactly what’s happening, in the fiat currency system currency is Mickey Mouse Monopoly money a few clicks on a keyboard. It’s not backed by anything.Yet people are signing their life away hour by hour for what a big house, flash-car values have been eroded.
I'd rather put my money in physical investment not just in Bonds & notes and ETFs & mutual funds. & small-cap stocks with growing earnings even if small it still will rise and also have an early buy-in point.
Even if Tesla does another Stock Split I don't see the value in keeping pumping money there.
As Tesla isn't the only EV Automaker out there.
I think the Government should continue to print money Especially since prices are spiking, Job or No Job, As long as you have an SSN. Some type of compensation should be provided. Let's look at gas costs!
Savers need to be brighter and more willing to sacrifice consumerism
Wow! Bill Gross. Very sharp man. It is good to hear his insight here. Thanks.
I am fond of both Mr. Gross's and Mr. El Erian's wisdoms and level of expertise, but quite surprised that he does not mention the reality of the war taking place now. This completely changes everything. How appropriate the current approach of the Fed to the global impact of the war is and will be after all the fiscal stimulus?
What impact did the war in Afghanistan have on the global economy? Maybe a slight positive?
Russian oil supply has been sanctioned out of the market. Chinese will buy Russian oil. Who can supply the oil needed? Not the good old USA, unless we reverse our policies for drilling, we have effectively declared a new tax on the American people people.
@@twain8734 . Russian oil HAS NOT been sanction out of the market (yet). Cut the bs.
This mini war is nothing and will soon be but a memory, but the sanctions will badly affect the global economy.
If you walked into a casino and they said you had a 20% chance of making 10%, and a 40% chance of losing 35%, how would you bet? The upside's just not there people, get out.
Basic economics - BUY LOW / SELL
HIGH . Physical silver bullion is over 50% below its two time high of $50.00 an ounce. There is a silver deficit , presently . Silver bullion is the most undervalued commodity on earth . Central banks and governments are stockpiling gold as we speak . WHY ?
5,000 year history - silver follows gold .
what he said ^
Make gold your entree. Check out the historical charts. Silver/platinum for speculation. Gold/LEGIT miners for survival.
@@BrianHeimbuecher
But silver is THE most undervalued commodity on earth !
@@rudeawakening3833 OK... I started buying silver in the mid-80s at Deak-Perera by Grand Central terminal in NYC. Maybe $3 or so; if it moved a nickel stackers bugged. I took 2010 off for the birth of my daughter and missed the 2011 'big one'. Look at what gold was doing. $1900 max. Silver was $48. Gee, what are the prices of each today? Do what you want. You'll learn. Best to you/
@@BrianHeimbuecher
I got involved with Physical Silver and we are talking in the last (2) years .
In one month - I make a $ 134,000.00 +
profit .
Yes - it was at the $30.00 / ounce spike .
No - it isn’t at $30.00 “today “ . TRUE .
However , this strategic metal is said by geologists and men who aren’t gold bugs/ profiteers of silver that it is being mined at a ratio of seven ounces of silver to each one ounce of gold .
If this is true , and the FACT that there is a “ PHYSICAL SILVER “ deficit ; then the paper price must eventually be null and void or the crooked COMEX will
need to finally let it run to its TRUE value OR men like Keith Neumeyer from First Majestic Silver may get all of the ( few ) CEO’s of the remaining 12 true / pure silver mining companies together and sell directly to the TESLA’s and APPLES of the world and let’s see just how PRECIOUS this shiny metal that the world MUST HAVE to make cell phones and computers truly is !
BAM !
( did I hear a toilet flush ? )
Interest rates in my opinion should never be lower than the inflation rate.
Stocks are gonna blow up just like Jeremy Grantham has been predicting
You mean "blow down"
Either way, sounds like it about to blow
Bal Dutt - what DO you mean? They're going up or down? Any why?
@@thomaspfenning1434 if something blows up it generally means a catastrophe. If you want to describe it as blow down then so be it. For the avoidance of doubt the s&p is heading for 3000 IMO
@@NorthStarPNW search for the Jeremy Grantham Bloomberg interview. We’re heading for a collapse
The wisest thing that should be on every wise individual's list is to invest in different stream of income and don't depend on the government to bring in money especially now the pandemic is hitting the economy
you are definitely right , waiting on the government is a big waste
Investments are the stepping Stones to success especially if you been guided by a professional
Investing is good but investing in the right thing is the actual key to success . who is your pro ?
That was exactly what I did, I trade with a professional stock expert "TERESA JENSEN WHITE " who i met in one of the seminars..
There are so many investment out there but if profits must be considered then not all investments are good to go into.
To me this is a no brainer. Even if the Fed does .75 basis points this year, we are still way below historical interest rates, so keep buying stocks in any downturn. Now lets face facts, we will not see any time soon (maybe never) interest rates beyond 5%. How can we? If we do we not be able to service the interest on the debt. We are looking at over 1.5 trillion in interest along.
many ways to have negative 1% real rates: QE Era----Nominal 1%, INfl 2%; Powell era----Nominal 2%, INFl 3%++ etc ....same difference.
Even though we need to get younger/educated/uncorrupt I vote him for president
Too much money concentrated into too few hands is Always a recipe for mischief and social instability.
"They made a mistake. They stayed down too long. They bought bonds to long."
When bill talks I listen
Get this man some water
Maybe people have had enough of spending and have maxed out their plastic. The concept of endless growth is insane everything has flipped to savers not consumers.
AS 2008 was coming to an end and the markets were crashing, Gross infamously told people to sell out because he thought the Dow was going to 5000. After that, he wasn't heard much from and his departure from Pimco was a mess. I'm surprised he's got the balls to go back on tv, or write a book that probably omits his famously wrong call.
I’ve been buying the Dips of IWF, and Today, I am happy to maxed my Roth IRA. Moving on to my taxable account
Well he was sort of right - the markets kept crashing into 2009 until TARP kicked in and QE started in earnest in March. It would have been hard to foresee that.
He is dmbfCk!
gotta pay those bills….
time for gold...and BHP gives you exposure in gold, copper, uranium (think new nuke plants) and fertilizer+ a high yield
This goes along with the macroeconomics class I am just wrapping up. I was estimating a recession on its way. Our dollar was getting a bit too strong
What is he talking about RE: oil pipeline partnerships that pay 8+%? At the 6:26 mark
Lots of assetd based loans are based on SOFR not FF rate, so it won't affect much unless Fed dramatic increase FF rate.
This is a great economy and people should be buying stocks. BUY BUY BUY!
I've predicted Stagflation for years, because it's the one outcome the Fed can deliver.
Ugh, what a dumb comment. 🙄
Deficit spending plus Federal retirement is not funded. it's a huge drain that needs to end.
this interview is prophetic. wow.
What’s the difference between monetarily and fiscally?
Monetary policy = money supply (handled by the federal reserve )
Fiscal policy = taxation and govt spending
@@slmusic360 thank you!
This is the same guy that thinks blasting music at your neighbors in the middle of the night is ok…….even went to court for it….
Don't overthink it. Buy volatility.
We are nearing the end.
No one knows when, but IF you stack shares in VXX or UVXY and wait for the crash, it should be a 20-50x bagger.
I did the math and it's fiscally impossible for interest rates to go up above the CPI currently. Meaning we are under the complete mercy of the supply chains as the lack of supply is driving inflation. I want to make this extremely clear that the Fed has NO CONTROL of consumer goods prices inflating. They ONLY control asset prices like houses and stock and bond market. They are like 3 layers disconnected from food inflation and other consumer goods. All the food and gas inflation is supply chain based and the war is pushing it even more so.
Currently we pay 14% of our annual revenue to interest on our debt. That's at a 1.5% rate. Do the math if rates go up to 5% the payment becomes nearly 50% of our revenue. How are you going to feel when 50% of our taxes is going to interest that gets paid to the Fed and goes back to the government? This is the government stealing from you. You must take note and stop it. Until you do it will not stop.
You obviously weren't around in the late 70's huh?
@@PresidentGas1 Are you saying to Not Buy volatility? I was born in 93', and have knowledge of interest rate policies and inflation, but not so much about the oil embargo and exactly what happened there. We have all the oil we need though so I figure if that happened again then it's our own doing.
What should I be aware of?
@@MonetaryRebel What you need to be aware of is what happens when stagflation gains hold of an economy ... which is what the US will now unfortunately fall into. Most importantly ... what it takes policy wise to get us out of it and what that will do in assets. I'm taking about massive rate hikes to well over 10% - 20%. Go back and learn something from the late 70's ..... not the early 70's oil issues ... the late 70's as Carter was transitioning to Reagan. We are going to see this happen again.
@PresidentGas1 thank you very much for the info, I mean it. Stagflation isn't something we've really experienced before is it? I know that is one of our policy makers worst fears.
I read the 4th Turning and then I knew... I'm almost 30 and I fear the millenials ARE the next 'Lost Generation'. The prime of our lives will be spent digging ourselves out of a hole that's been dug for the last 50 years.
My friends can't even fathom that interest rates could be above 10% or that getting into a house now is a terrible idea. They're all running into 30 year mortgages waiting for the Fed to buy the dip.
@@MonetaryRebel All these kids that didn't get busted by the tech bubble, housing bubble and black monday just don't get it. It always goes down, and usually right after it shot way up.
When it comes to the world of investing, most people don't know where to start. Fortunately, great us investors of the past and present can provide us with guidance
Yeah!! Due to the fall in the stock market, I don't think it's advisable holding, it would be more beneficial and yield more profit if you actually trade on cryptocurrency I've been trading since the dip, and I've made so much profit trading.
@John McGaughey that's why you need the help of a professional like Mr Dave Jevans who trade and understand the market more to earn good income, these professionals understand the market like it's there own farm and make s maximum profit for investors.
I heard that his strategies are really good
@@roguefrederick Yeah, My first investment with Mr Dave Jevans he earned me profit of over $25,530 US dollars, and ever since then he has been delivering
He has really made a good name for himself.
What's your investment plan for this inflation?
This guy knows his stuff
If the LNG fiasco blows up in Investors faces, the deficit can become very severe?
Who doesn't love THE BOND KING!
hey Fed, just stop printing!
This is such a nul story...anyone with any base financial knowledge would be seeing the mild recession coming right after the omicron wave started..
Mild is putting it mildly
Why? Where was delta’s recession?
Made a mistake! There was no shortage of folks saying the Fed needed to address 24 months ago. Holy cow.
This guy should be the Fed Chairman NOT those amateurs who have been destroying the economy!!!
Agree 100%!
He's smart enough not to open that can of worms. The problems with our economy are unfixable and anyone who wants to become Fed chair is just playing hot potato.
@@kuanged Yes now is very hard to fix but had HE been chairman way back it all could have been averted.
@@usa4ever711 The problems with the US economy are structural. There would be no way to fix those problem without asking the American people to make huge sacrifices. That's why these problems don't get fixed. Why did Nixon take the US off the gold standard in 1971? Because the consequences of allowing the US dollar settle at its real value would have been too costly to the American political class and too destabilizing to the American ruling establishment's hold on power.
@@kuanged Interesting. Where did you read that? I'd like to read for myself and thanks!
Great the dollar is a new South American peso , 40 years in the making ,,,they got it all , and own everything !!!
Good news, it's a transitory supply chain issue. This will all blow over in a year.
problem? BPT stock set to soar to $65....what problem?
Peter Schiff been saying this for a year
Actually, Schiff has been saying it for 20 years. That's why no one listens to him anymore.
Bill Gross, the original Bond King.
What is oil pipeline partnership that he is talking about?
Limited partnerships. They blew up bad years ago, and the dividends they pay often times are return of principal...so the big numbers claimed aren't really true. That's not to say that they are never a good investment, but when they were all the rage....they lost people big money. Energy was indeed so trashed, by Biden's inauguration energy stocks were trading at book value/bankruptcy pricing.
This was the highlight of my day
We live in a world where only people like this get to talk: they always see problems ahead - real or made up - that they will never have or suffer, and they never EVER give any solutions that don't involve your pockets, your income, your social security, your health care, more tuitions for your sons. Of course there is a fiscal problem with spending: for instance, START CUTING BY HALF WHAT US PAYS TO DEFENSE CORPS!
No thanks China
It is a shame,that Brian Sullivan didn’t use his astonishing humor,to reference at least once ,to GROSS playing out loud the Gilligan Island ‘song ,in order to GROSS OUT his neighbors! Sally , the ratings would gone through the roof ; I would have forced you ,to at least one GROSS’ humor episode,had I being your producer!
You can tell this guy wants to keep being invited on cnbc
For a long time, banks have made a lot of money by reducing interests to depositors. What more can they do ?
"Mild"... Call it what it is, we've made a mess for ourselves. This thing is going to collapse hard.
Pelosi needs to retire. We need a new wave of politicians that are closer aligned with interests of regular Americans.
Both clowns. And Pelosi drinks too much🍷
Not that I don't want to see her go but that's up to the voters. She doesn't have to retire to be kicked out of office. We don't have to wait for her to retire
Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale, a tale of a fateful trip, That started from this tropic port, aboard this tiny ship. The mate was a mighty sailin' man, the Skipper brave and sure. Five passengers set sail that day for a three hour tour. A three hour tour.
The U.S. has had a serious fiscal problem since 2001.
Did the world economy have any better alternative? I don't think so.
Nub of the argument: "The economy, to grow at 4-5% of GDP REQUIRES ever lower 10yr Rate, at constant pace in a downward channel."
Do the opposite of the wall-street “Pros.” They’ll tell you to go all-in just before a market crash, and sell before a bull run.
Sounds like it's time for people to start providing for themselves and stop looking for government to take care of them their whole life.
Amen 🙏 🙏 🙏
Exactly
Abolish the welfare system
Well if you remove the corporate tax incentives provided to wealthy companies America would easily be able to address the financial storms ahead. Also with a reduction in Defense Spendings combined with the removal of corporate welfare provided by permanent tax cuts America could cut its debt in half within 10 years. There is no combination of social programs that can cut our debt that much as the removal of corporate welfare and reduction in military spending will be far more effective.
Waaaaaaay to late. Rampant dependency. When u live a life of lies( the govt) the situation grows out of control
The microphone quality is bad....I shouldn't be getting massive bass from people having a normal discussion. Spring for a $100 microphone PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD.
hah!
Powell is a...
Omg…why are we constantly trying to maintain this failing economic system. There are other options instead of this mess.
are there
CBDC und you gona Love it
@@zorankopunovic9882 comedy
I thought the title said Bill Gates
I agree and once Chinese start pulling out $ it could have a huge impact on fiscal spending further . The fed would be forced to print even more . China will start unloading now I believe
Russia is pulling us to sleep with Germanys gas n China in their back pocket
China has their own economic problems right now. They are in as bad and maybe worse shape than we are.
@@NickJacksonusa Totally. They're the only ones whose GDP grew last year or 2
@@NickJacksonusa lol , they aren’t and the fact that your pajama was some how sourced in China shows they are still in control and honestly the current sanctions are going to increase the gap between western and Chinese companies competitiveness . Watch what I said and learn that it will unfold in less than a year . Watch my comment very carefully and remember
Why don't yall bring in Peter sheift to yell yall the truth about the economy
He's a hack.
Many of these men never change a spare tire or get any dirt or grease under their fingernails.
Gilligan himself
EXTRM GOOD TIME FOR BUYING ETHERUM AND BITCOIN AND HODL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!auuuuuu
I am sure oil will not hit 150$
Buy bonds I hear
He is either short AMC/GME or he has no idea WTF is going on. AMC/GME run almost simultaneously on the daily/weekly chart which should be next to impossible. Naked shorting/synthetic shares are rampant with both of these securities. This is why the buy button was taken away in 2021 for GMC/AMC/KOSS/BBBY/BB etc with more than 10 brokers (not just Robinhood)!!! Every American should be livid with the crime that was displayed. This prevented the hedgefunds/institutions/market makers from getting their asses handed to them. As of now Wallstreet is over leveraged 300%+ in derivatives marketwide and the manipulation is rampant (reverse repos 1.7T insane). The DOJ is currently investigating 30 different hedgefunds for manipulation while the SEC just sits on their hands and allows it.
Its called CAPITALISM !!!
personally, I don't believe this will affect the US economy. The markets have already anticipated the threat from Russia, they will be able to continue the recovery.
In fact, real estate is still a great bet. I have a bridge to sell you. Gold only.
What are his neighbor's thoughts?
Haha! They cant even think because of the loud music.
The Gilligan Island song I think it was on a loop - this guy fights dirty
They are GROSSED out !
@@robertpaulson6388 , GROSS fights GROSSLY also ! I rest my case
Up the proverbial creek without a life jacket,paddles, alligators nipping at our nose as we stand in water up to our noses.now if you are taller than six feet you will probably be a survivor.my advice grow fast!!!!😄
Sure the Fed could solve inflation. They'd have to raise rates to over 10% and basically grind the economy to a halt.... but yeah they could do it.
The 2 trillion dollar bond king
Hyperbitcoinization is manifest destiny.
When oil its $150 dollars, the stock market super-bubbles will burst and we are going to face a massive economic depression coupled to high or even hyper inflation.
It's called Stagflation and by the looks of most people posting here .... they've never seen anything like it and boy are they in for a rude awakening.
You have a serious problem, I'm fine.
Lacking expertise, ordinary people have lost money investing in the share market.
$8 per gal. gasoline coming soon to a station near you.
Mild recession? Absolutely dreaming.
This man is right we need to increase taxes on 1%
Great guy
Gross?
@@peterl.104 ,indeed
,He wanted to drive his neighbors into irreversible lunacy ,by playing the same song 24/7 ! I rest my case !
@@sidibouchrit that’s gross!
@@peterl.104 , Indeed ,as GROSS having the Gilligan Island song on a loop ,24/7 , in order to GROSS OUT his neighbors , who are now completely GROSSED OUT BY GROSS ‘s action ; Indeed a deliberate GROSSING ACT BY GROSS ; Hopefully,no neighbor would ever gross me out !
Printed too much currency
Hedging to protect your portfolio
The doom and gloom propaganda working perfectly.
Fed stayed in too long, didn't pull out. Now the baby is out, it's too late for abortion.
market and economy will meltdown with wall street's greed
Who is this mumbling bond banker? Sounds like you guys are getting punched in the face.
Advertorial
Gold star for YOU! Bingo!
This guy is seriously sick.
Growth and inflation is the only solution. Need better, more precise, fiscal stimulus. Democrats wasted 50% of money spent on unproductive policies. Incompetence is the biggest impediment. Not fiscal policies.
wow he has aged a lot vs a decade ago.
Tax the rich! Yum
Feds in a corner
I'm supposed to trust someone who's that rich supposedly, but has hillbilly teeth?
Donate to the Ukrainian armed forces here