Once again, directly on point. Be careful with the sets you buy. Buy what you like (if you’re collecting). And there has never been a better time to buy singles, raw, on the secondary market as well as there has never been a worse time to rip for profit (consider that entertainment).
Also put Julio aside for a second… how many Wander cards are there out there??? 🤯 I do think there is room for value in investing in non-numbered SPs/SSPs, SP inserts (thinking home field advantage, Kabooms, etc), as well as even base in some iconic hobby-limited sets (like Topps finest or Bowman Chrome).
Theres still some Rodriguez cards that are out right now that weren't pictured like the complete set photo variation,, and more. Wander has even more than Rodriguez. Great video once again.
Despite modern being more overproduced, sealed wax if the right product will hold long term value. I have stuff sealed dating back to 1980 and I'm bullish on sealed wax. 2022 Update has solid potential if kept sealed. Best rookie class of Topps since 18. BTW Julio Rodriguez 1st Bowman Chrome card is far better than most 1st Bowman of the last 4 years. 1st Bowman Chrome seems like still the way to go among many collectors.
i tend to stick to jersey match parallels, because i feel like a red prizm of Lulio won't be as attractive as a blue prizm since it matches his jersey color.
Agreed. I opened a box of 2017 Topps Update and it is interesting to see Bellinger, Benintendi, Moncada, and everyone else in the box not names Judge be worth almost nothing.
The “Watered down” scenario really hurts the investor type, collectors are satisfied with the Flagship product cards. The PSA Registry helps to cut out all the fluff by streamlining the sports cards needed for various collections 👍🏽
Yeah. I sold 14 jrod update rc for $8 a piece. To think how many more have been out there since launch and it is clear the people that bought mine over paid. What’s worse is I was selling at a price lower than most at that time.
I just feel like flagship rookie parallels and short prints are the best way to go . So like the series 2 sp and update foils and parallels in my opinion. I’m holding onto series 2 sp even tho it’s only like 500 at psa 10 when it used to be like 800
This is perfect, we really need a database site where people can go to compare apples to apples… how many base, parallels, and autos are there of every player, in total? Would really help level set the industry. I wish I could make it but I just don’t have the programming background.
I a box 2018 Onyx Authenticated Premium Platinum Elite 4 card box. The Mason Martin card has dented right Side and crushed mark on the front. I tried to get the seller to do something. No go! I sent Onyx 3 emails and no go. Card companies don’t check the products or back them up
My question is… although there are so many Julio Rodriguez Topps base rookie cards… how many of those will actually grade 10? Quality Control in retail has been beyond trash.
GREAT analysis buddy! As a Julio fan I really wanted to jump in and get a Topps Update black #/71 but there are now so many Julio cards (even ones #/100 or less) all of this stuff will be watered down once the "newness hype" of Julio dies down. It happened with Luka's cards in 2018...he just has too many RCs. For me, I still feel his BC autos and colored refractors are the best way to go long term. It's not "flagship" but if flagship has 10 RCs that are all #/299...that makes 2999 RCs #/299. I'd much rather have a 2019 BC auto /299 refractor then! WE KNOW there will only be 299 refractor autos #/299 from that set. I am totally off all Topps products this year - AS MUCH as I like Julio's game!
I used to be a player collector until 100 diff copies were made every year. Henry Owens has over 1200 cards and he hasn't played an MLB season since 2017? Harold Baines barely HOF had only 1800 diff cards his whole career!
I don't know why every insert has a Rookie Logo. Pujols' rookie year inserts didn't. Rookie Logos should just be on Base Rookies and Base Rookie Parallels of any type, and they should be left off inserts. They probably need to cut back on a few sets, but with so many sets, boxes should be cheaper. The other thing is, even with the different amounts of cards produced each year, the ratio in prices isn't reflected accordingly between players from a few years ago to guys like Franco's base and Julio's base.
After update and the specials in the complete set boxes, the only hot rookies that will keep value are the super short prints...because EVERYONE is pulling all the others. I got 3 different O'Neil cruz cards out of one update hanger.
Damn, so not only do we have to pick a player that may be a superstar in the sport but have to pick the correct brand, parallel, insert, and grade of card.....This is a brilliant strategy for all the card companies to entice collectors to have to buy more cards of your player to increase the odds of hitting the right card. And this works both ways as a collector and as a investment collector..As a love of a particular player or team collector they will surely want to own every card of their particular athlete or team and therefore purchase more product. Bottom line collect players or teams you love, as far as investing it's still ok to do so but only with a certain percentage of your investment funds. Spread your investment money around with other investment opportunities as well.
A few months pack I made a list of all the Topps sets that I could think of. 24, that’s the high and low end, and just what I could think of at the time. Cosmic Chrome is due out now, add it to the pile. How much is too much?
Well that’s what happens when there’s close to 70 Topps & Bowman baseball releases combined…I mean there’s 9 being dropped in December alone. There should be 1 or 2 releases a month but with the rise of breaking/breakers that need products to exist and with people buying these “no need for” releases,this will never happen and will probably get worse before it gets better
Unfortunately the reason they have so many is because people buy them. Why not? The companies have said they are not interested in the secondary market at all. They don't care what their values are 1,5 or 50 years from now.
If it's not a Short Print or a Low-Numbered Parallel of a RC in 2022 it isn't ever going to be worth anything in the future. Topps did it that way this year with the short prints because they started to recognize that they were destroying the value of the base cards they were making with over-printing. They were trying to build in that future value for collectors by having those short print cards in these sets. It's harder for collectors in the end to find those valuable cards and ripping wax had become straight painful and that sucks. But at least SOMETHING will have value and worth in a few years because of it. I think stuff is still a bit overpriced considering the regular odds for pulling anything. But when you do get that Short Print, there isn't any complaining then....
Question- I don't have have the money to buy the most expensive Julio Rodriguez. For someone with a tight budget... which of his rookie cards do you recommend?
Hi Phillipp, I never want to recommend a purchase since I cannot guarantee that the card will appreciate. most likely the current Julio rookies will go down over the next month as more are listed on eBay. The safest bet for a player is their gold flagship rookie since that is a historically desired card, but there are others that could be great buys as well!
Any thoughts on the Complete Set Julio? I know it was a guaranteed get if you bought the set but the number is still probably considerably lower than the other standard ones?
If you look at the value of prior sets, Tatis, Vlad, Acuna, Ohtani, I would be skeptical that they would hold a premium over the base rookie in Topps update, though still valuable.
Great info. If you want collect today's rookies, stay with the parallels and products that outperform their rarity. Topps: Black refactors, Sapphire (including autos), chrome autos. Panini: Prizm, Optic only (unless super-high end), optic contenders for football. Prizm silvers, Optic holos. high numbered 100 and under. Just forget base and the common parallels.
I feel Trout and Alvarez projections are about 10-20% off and Judge is about 10% to high. For those about to blast Teout for games played due to injury, over the course of the last 5 years Judge has only averaged about 11 more games played pers season.
It's cool for people collecting to just travel some cool and fin cards...and that's fine but if ur the investor type just buy the parallels and sp cards. Seems pretty simple. Worst case u buy a lot of boxes and have a lot of 2-5$ rookie cards or u get some boxes pull a few autos a few parallels and still have lots of 2-5$ rookies. Imo it's not a bad thing to have 100 3$ cards as compared to 1 300$ card
I am looking to buy a Reggie Jackson rookie. Everyone agrees what card that is. Ever since 1981 in baseball, rookie cards have slowly deteriorated into what we have now. I do collect Sandy Alcantara and I have over 40 different on-card auto rookie cards counting parallels and different cards. These are just the on-card auto rookies and none of his other stuff. Right now, you need an auto rookie card numbered or SSP for it to be worth anything.
I have to think if in 10 years JRod is equal to or surpassing Trout playing-wise, his rookie will still be enormously expensive. There's still far less Trout RC's than JRod and I'd like to get a bowman chrome refractor of Trout some day. I actually had the 09 bowman chrome prospects base 1st auto but sold it when I became suddenly homeless. I still wake up shaking and crying from time to time. 😭
Can we get a video breakdown of Michael Harris II and how his rookie will likely be the premier rookie card of next year? His available cards are very hard to pull in non base cards currently through bowman chrome hobby and a few other options. What other rookies are you looking forward to next year?
it sux im pretty much done with modern product except for the first bowman chrome, bowman next and heritage chrome..first year prerookie, I learned my lesson in the 90's I got boxes of worthless rookies!!
@@johnwayne9828 agree John. I think the best value for your dollar is in the golds. They tend to be cheaper for 80% of the rookie class and overtime still hold the iconic status due to the consistency. Of course the top guys you’ll always have to pay a premium for. Which is why I’m super selective/strategic in my Rookie buying. 98% of these guys that are "hot" now will fizzle out and not have HOF careers.
When you see people trading 13th season subset set/ inserts and wanting a fortune when 80% gem mint psa10’s- but people keep buying- the rookie isn’t part of it Different collectors.
You also have to realize no one knew who Mike trout was in 2009- 2011 had topps had any idea Trout was as good as he was they would have flooded the market with trout when he was a rc. JROD is a known talent that we have all known about for years now. Now yes they have ruined the hobby with flooding the market like 2003ish your right there.
The hard part of Topps Now long term is the fact the aren't pack pulled. That usually makes them less desirable, but I do agree I love that they include the print runs publicly! Some people are big Topps Now collectors and might make bank big time in the future!
@@scottiebcards2354 Yeah I see your point about them not being pack-pulled. And they are different as a concept too. To me is not only the low PR, but they also add a sense of introduction to the majors and milestones like 1st MLB hit, HR, clutch moments, cool stats, etc, so as a whole the collection becomes like the highlight reel of the player's rookie year. I don't know, to me It feels more personal than a variation photo that only brings scarcity to the equation, although I see the value in the flagship cards too, don't get me wrong, but like you've stated many times, it is becoming increasingly harder to agree on what the flagship cards are anymore.
Its should be 1980 style...each brand Topps etc...only 1 rookie card in the Flagship series...ie their is only 1 Topps Ricky Henderson rookie for Topps...
I hate this too, because I feel that Julio can be one of the Greatest Players we’ve seen since Trout and a few others if not better! Definitely will be hard to be as good as or better than Trout which was the best of this generation in my eyes! But if Julio stays healthy and plays the way he has he can easily be one of the best to play the game! Not the best!!! That’s a hard one to say, to me Mantle will Always Be The Goat! But that’s My Opinion!!!
I am an old timey card collector. I haven't gotten into the more current cards. A couple weeks ago I went to purchase a rookie card of an NFL player I am a fan of. Holy farg. I searched out "said player" rookie.....what a joke. There were so many "rookie" cards. I am used to "this is the main rookie card, and then there are 3 or 4 other brands that also released rookies". Not dozens of rookies with multiples being from the same manufacturer. Talk about over saturation, and overkill. I have absolutely no interest in that.
These flagship SPs are just plain stupid imho. It dilutes the Update rookies for no reason except greed. Ironic Trout's true MLB RC is in Update only 😂
But do you take into account that there's allot more collectors than 10 years ago... so it might actually balance itself out... everything 2018 and before is gonna be way lower print runs than the years after... when serial numbered cards were exactly what they said...I been collecting 35 years and all these new products are killing the fun... especially if you have to kill the weekend with your wife just to open a new product... ain't happening
Most recent comp of a trout update PSA 10 is $1575. If a Julio PSA 10 is worth $500 in 10 years, I don't think that'll be a huge problem...the ones that will be interesting are if Torkelson or someone who didn't set the world on fire this year takes off. The set is the best sports card set since the Pandemic.
Hey Bryan, thanks for watching. I have a very hard time believing the Julio will be that high. The Juan Soto Update PSA 10 only goes for $75 right now and there are less of those than the Julio. I think the Julio settles around $50 for PSA 10s within the next 3-5 years.
… I’m not trying to bash Julio Rodriguez… says the guy who makes a sport of hating on anyone & everyone in a Mariners uniform 🤣🤣🤣 If you ask me, this is just soft scottie being naughty 👿 😂😂
Occasionally my videos might have similar themes, but this was new research. It also is not to say your cards are worthless, but rather giving awareness to those that are trying to chase everything with modern (which is impossible). Also, it is not just trout or Mookie, but essentially anyone from 2002-2017 with lower print runs. I’m sorry you didn’t like the video.
@@scottiebcards2354 well it has to be new numbers for a new player. And slightly tweaked things to compare it to tell the... same story. Same outcome. New day. But I get it, we all get it. It's what's get views on YT right now and it's not like you're dead wrong or anything on the subject matter. And I don't have a problem with your channel. But wow, YT is all doom and gloom and it's going to milk that dry. As a watcher it feels like people think the market and hobby is stupid and needs constant coaching or something. It's weird.. Everyone is on repeat. "Be careful now" "Don't do this, do that" "This won't have value, but this will bc trust me" "junk wax era, overproduction" "sky is falling" yada yada. and it's even more sad to see what some people are saying in the comments. I always watch though. Having more fun than I've ever had in the hobby rn and know what I'm doing... I'll retire off my base US44s and all will be good....😂 okay too far.. lol but life goes on. Just had to share my perspective. Rant over.. once I started, couldn't stop. Sorry.
I just bought a series 1 binder of Playboy chromium refractor cards. One of those cards is the Donald Trump card, his rookie card essentially. When I think about what's going to be valuable in 20 years, I'm investing in stuff like this that have iconic people in them, that aren't iconic product, that there are very very few of. I think this Playboy said is a much smarter investment than just about anything else new you could put your money into. I think this will only get more valuable in time whereas sports cards can have their abs and flows. I also have a set of the leaf metal decision 2020, the full gamut, all 10 people, 2/5 Orange and I got it for a great price, again I think in 20 years, all 10 of those people or at least, six out of the 10 of those people will be a person that is still talked about long after their death. I've basically changed my entire strategy in this game and I've been on the forefront of all of this in the last 6 years or so, seeing the trends and buying what has proven to be extremely intelligently, so I just wanted to share this for anyone else that's looking for something to put their money into, there are still a few of the refractors available, a few of the Donald Trump cards are on eBay, I don't think you can find the refractor set anywhere but if you can I would snatch it up, but those cards are iconic and it's not just the Donald trump, there are lots of big name star cards that made their first appearance on something in that set, like Jerry Seinfeld and Pamela Anderson ... just to name a couple...
Man, I enjoy watching Trout play (when he’s not hurt ) BUT at some point he has to win something 🤔 OTHERWISE= it all just equates to a “stats” career, which is a loser’s mentality NOT TO MENTION just hype for his card values, imo 🍻
Hey Joey, thanks for watching! I disagree slightly on the Trout take. Ted Williams, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds, Tony Gwynn, Ty Cobb, and many many more hall of famers didn't have post season success/win a world series, but still hold a massive premium. Trout will be fine long term just like Griffey in my eyes. Mookie has two world series and it does not help his values at all. Baseball is not basketball where a championship is career and legacy defining.
Winning a championship in Baseball is nowhere near the same as the NBA with only 5 players on the court, or the QB who has the ball every offensive play. People who just flat out don't like Trout use this silly argument all the time. No one devalues Trout's cards because he hasn't won. No one has ever said that in the 45 years I have been in Baseball collecting about any player. Reals sports people understand how important it is to have a full pitching staff and several players that can hit timely in the playoffs which contributes to a "team" winning. Trout will always carry a premium since he is already ready to step into the HOF the minute he is done, and yet he is only 31. The upside is unreal for Trout's pricing.
@@wutango36o to be fair, 2014 was won almost single handedly by bumgarner. The rest of the staff had an era pushing 10 that postseason. The only time I've seen a player carry a team through october.
Big reason why I’m not buying many new packs is the print runs. I learned my lesson 30 years ago with the first junk wax era. Great stuff Scottie!
We are in the junk wax graded/slabbed era. These thousands of dollars won’t hold up
You have the best card content on You Tube. No hype and always backed by solid research and analysis. Appreciate it and enjoy it.
Once again, directly on point. Be careful with the sets you buy. Buy what you like (if you’re collecting). And there has never been a better time to buy singles, raw, on the secondary market as well as there has never been a worse time to rip for profit (consider that entertainment).
Also put Julio aside for a second… how many Wander cards are there out there??? 🤯
I do think there is room for value in investing in non-numbered SPs/SSPs, SP inserts (thinking home field advantage, Kabooms, etc), as well as even base in some iconic hobby-limited sets (like Topps finest or Bowman Chrome).
Color matching has been my key for collecting Julio - scarcity and look so smooth
LONG LIVE SCOTTIE B! The king of baseball hobby introspection and foresight. Thanks for another excellent analysis.
Theres still some Rodriguez cards that are out right now that weren't pictured like the complete set photo variation,, and more. Wander has even more than Rodriguez. Great video once again.
Excellent share. I have definitely noticed all the Julio rookies. A definite concern.
Scammer
Great video! Thanks for the information. Love your breakdowns, definitely helps narrow down what sets to collect.
Thanks Brian. I am glad it helped. Thanks for watching!
Crazy to see all the cards at one time. There are so many!
Just wait a few months and the photo will be 2-3x worse!
Awesome …. Thanks for collecting data and creating great content …. Look forward to ur show every time….. u ur much appreciated yo!!!!!!!
Thank you! I always appreciate you watching and commenting on the videos!
great vid - FYI you are missing some of the Topps Now Julios
Despite modern being more overproduced, sealed wax if the right product will hold long term value. I have stuff sealed dating back to 1980 and I'm bullish on sealed wax. 2022 Update has solid potential if kept sealed. Best rookie class of Topps since 18. BTW Julio Rodriguez 1st Bowman Chrome card is far better than most 1st Bowman of the last 4 years. 1st Bowman Chrome seems like still the way to go among many collectors.
i tend to stick to jersey match parallels, because i feel like a red prizm of Lulio won't be as attractive as a blue prizm since it matches his jersey color.
Best card channel ever
Great analysis. And unfortunately, it’s all best-case scenario. Most hot rookies will become worthless because they fell off, let alone print runs.
Agreed. I opened a box of 2017 Topps Update and it is interesting to see Bellinger, Benintendi, Moncada, and everyone else in the box not names Judge be worth almost nothing.
The “Watered down” scenario really hurts the investor type, collectors are satisfied with the Flagship product cards. The PSA Registry helps to cut out all the fluff by streamlining the sports cards needed for various collections 👍🏽
Great analysis
I knew things were bad… but wow this really puts it in perspective!
Yeah. I sold 14 jrod update rc for $8 a piece. To think how many more have been out there since launch and it is clear the people that bought mine over paid. What’s worse is I was selling at a price lower than most at that time.
Yeah it will be VERY interesting to see where they settle in the upcoming months. I cannot imagine they will be too high. Thanks for sharing Anthony!
I just feel like flagship rookie parallels and short prints are the best way to go . So like the series 2 sp and update foils and parallels in my opinion. I’m holding onto series 2 sp even tho it’s only like 500 at psa 10 when it used to be like 800
Nice video....
Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Bowman. always the big dog.
This is perfect, we really need a database site where people can go to compare apples to apples… how many base, parallels, and autos are there of every player, in total? Would really help level set the industry. I wish I could make it but I just don’t have the programming background.
I a box 2018 Onyx Authenticated Premium Platinum Elite 4 card box. The Mason Martin card has dented right Side and crushed mark on the front. I tried to get the seller to do something. No go! I sent Onyx 3 emails and no go.
Card companies don’t check the products or back them up
Great info!
I love the look of some of the Heritage cards and they do mark them with RC. Why are they not included here?
Nice presentation Scott but the overprinting of cards in todays production is widely known in the hobby by now. It’s unfortunate
hey scott great vid
I have topps chrome JROD orange sparkles /25 card PSA 9 from silver packs, is that hold or sell ?
Monopolization & corporate greed aren't just ruining the sports card industry, they are ruining EVERY industry.
If ultra-modern cards dropped another 50% they’d still be overpriced IMO.
You’re not kidding.
there is a reason I love 2002-2014 so much. The print runs were at great numbers for those years in my opinion.
People who collect modern trying to cope by making up phrases like “ultra modern” lol
My question is… although there are so many Julio Rodriguez Topps base rookie cards… how many of those will actually grade 10?
Quality Control in retail has been beyond trash.
GREAT analysis buddy! As a Julio fan I really wanted to jump in and get a Topps Update black #/71 but there are now so many Julio cards (even ones #/100 or less) all of this stuff will be watered down once the "newness hype" of Julio dies down. It happened with Luka's cards in 2018...he just has too many RCs. For me, I still feel his BC autos and colored refractors are the best way to go long term. It's not "flagship" but if flagship has 10 RCs that are all #/299...that makes 2999 RCs #/299. I'd much rather have a 2019 BC auto /299 refractor then! WE KNOW there will only be 299 refractor autos #/299 from that set. I am totally off all Topps products this year - AS MUCH as I like Julio's game!
Would love to have a bc auto of julio, but unfortunately the vast majority of collectors cant afford one.
@@johnwayne9828 yeah this is true...I always inquire about trades +cash
What’s your take on /10 higher end autos for rookies those look decent for appreciating
Can you do a video like this but compare trout with oneil cruz lol that should blow some minds number wise
I used to be a player collector until 100 diff copies were made every year. Henry Owens has over 1200 cards and he hasn't played an MLB season since 2017? Harold Baines barely HOF had only 1800 diff cards his whole career!
Even with bowman, we don’t know print runs. Not to mention they play with those numbers too
I don't know why every insert has a Rookie Logo. Pujols' rookie year inserts didn't. Rookie Logos should just be on Base Rookies and Base Rookie Parallels of any type, and they should be left off inserts. They probably need to cut back on a few sets, but with so many sets, boxes should be cheaper. The other thing is, even with the different amounts of cards produced each year, the ratio in prices isn't reflected accordingly between players from a few years ago to guys like Franco's base and Julio's base.
I can’t stop ripping 2022 Topps Update hanger boxes though.
What about the “1st edition” bowman 1st?
Great info
Is there a site or other place to get the number of cards that are released on the market?
After update and the specials in the complete set boxes, the only hot rookies that will keep value are the super short prints...because EVERYONE is pulling all the others. I got 3 different O'Neil cruz cards out of one update hanger.
Damn, so not only do we have to pick a player that may be a superstar in the sport but have to pick the correct brand, parallel, insert, and grade of card.....This is a brilliant strategy for all the card companies to entice collectors to have to buy more cards of your player to increase the odds of hitting the right card. And this works both ways as a collector and as a investment collector..As a love of a particular player or team collector they will surely want to own every card of their particular athlete or team and therefore purchase more product. Bottom line collect players or teams you love, as far as investing it's still ok to do so but only with a certain percentage of your investment funds. Spread your investment money around with other investment opportunities as well.
A few months pack I made a list of all the Topps sets that I could think of. 24, that’s the high and low end, and just what I could think of at the time. Cosmic Chrome is due out now, add it to the pile. How much is too much?
Too much was a long time ago.
Well that’s what happens when there’s close to 70 Topps & Bowman baseball releases combined…I mean there’s 9 being dropped in December alone. There should be 1 or 2 releases a month but with the rise of breaking/breakers that need products to exist and with people buying these “no need for” releases,this will never happen and will probably get worse before it gets better
Unfortunately the reason they have so many is because people buy them. Why not? The companies have said they are not interested in the secondary market at all. They don't care what their values are 1,5 or 50 years from now.
Ultra modern RC for me is all about the SP or serial numbered parallels. Base just aren’t worth much anymore with the higher print runs.
Ya way too many RC out there now.. I have like 60 topps update RC and another 60 RC debut.. it’s just so easy to get
If it's not a Short Print or a Low-Numbered Parallel of a RC in 2022 it isn't ever going to be worth anything in the future. Topps did it that way this year with the short prints because they started to recognize that they were destroying the value of the base cards they were making with over-printing. They were trying to build in that future value for collectors by having those short print cards in these sets. It's harder for collectors in the end to find those valuable cards and ripping wax had become straight painful and that sucks. But at least SOMETHING will have value and worth in a few years because of it. I think stuff is still a bit overpriced considering the regular odds for pulling anything. But when you do get that Short Print, there isn't any complaining then....
Question- I don't have have the money to buy the most expensive Julio Rodriguez. For someone with a tight budget... which of his rookie cards do you recommend?
Hi Phillipp, I never want to recommend a purchase since I cannot guarantee that the card will appreciate. most likely the current Julio rookies will go down over the next month as more are listed on eBay. The safest bet for a player is their gold flagship rookie since that is a historically desired card, but there are others that could be great buys as well!
@@scottiebcards2354 okay... one more question... what's your opinion about the Bowman 1st Chrome card?
@@timelessdevotionals with how many topps rcs there are, 1st bowman is probably the safer alternative.
Any thoughts on the Complete Set Julio? I know it was a guaranteed get if you bought the set but the number is still probably considerably lower than the other standard ones?
If you look at the value of prior sets, Tatis, Vlad, Acuna, Ohtani, I would be skeptical that they would hold a premium over the base rookie in Topps update, though still valuable.
Great info. If you want collect today's rookies, stay with the parallels and products that outperform their rarity. Topps: Black refactors, Sapphire (including autos), chrome autos. Panini: Prizm, Optic only (unless super-high end), optic contenders for football. Prizm silvers, Optic holos. high numbered 100 and under. Just forget base and the common parallels.
Only issue is they use the same photo across the brands and use the same parallel set up.
Yes - but those specific ones will outperform relative to rarity the others.
I feel Trout and Alvarez projections are about 10-20% off and Judge is about 10% to high. For those about to blast Teout for games played due to injury, over the course of the last 5 years Judge has only averaged about 11 more games played pers season.
Thanks Scottie - Great content as always. Subscribe to this man!
Great vid
It's cool for people collecting to just travel some cool and fin cards...and that's fine but if ur the investor type just buy the parallels and sp cards. Seems pretty simple. Worst case u buy a lot of boxes and have a lot of 2-5$ rookie cards or u get some boxes pull a few autos a few parallels and still have lots of 2-5$ rookies. Imo it's not a bad thing to have 100 3$ cards as compared to 1 300$ card
It's crazy that he's not even considering all the Bowman prospects..
They should only put the RC on the base and parallels of the flagship.
100% agree with you on this.
I am looking to buy a Reggie Jackson rookie. Everyone agrees what card that is. Ever since 1981 in baseball, rookie cards have slowly deteriorated into what we have now. I do collect Sandy Alcantara and I have over 40 different on-card auto rookie cards counting parallels and different cards. These are just the on-card auto rookies and none of his other stuff. Right now, you need an auto rookie card numbered or SSP for it to be worth anything.
6:08 Why do we need so many sets? It's insane!
It's all over
I have to think if in 10 years JRod is equal to or surpassing Trout playing-wise, his rookie will still be enormously expensive.
There's still far less Trout RC's than JRod and I'd like to get a bowman chrome refractor of Trout some day. I actually had the 09 bowman chrome prospects base 1st auto but sold it when I became suddenly homeless. I still wake up shaking and crying from time to time. 😭
You only compared Totals. That’s why I NEVER buy base. Low parallel ssp, you know what you are getting
Imagine
You go back to pre-1988 guidelines
The only maker would be Topps
2002-14 print runs
And
Lesser sets
Collecting would be much simpler.
If possessing or staring at a particular piece of cardboard gave someone a magickal power once a week, how much would people pay for that?
Wonder if the biggest rookie is always going to get a gatorade bath sp now they copied sotos 2018 update ssp
Can we get a video breakdown of Michael Harris II and how his rookie will likely be the premier rookie card of next year? His available cards are very hard to pull in non base cards currently through bowman chrome hobby and a few other options. What other rookies are you looking forward to next year?
Scammer
it sux im pretty much done with modern product except for the first bowman chrome, bowman next and heritage chrome..first year prerookie, I learned my lesson in the 90's I got boxes of worthless rookies!!
I like how a loaded baked potato tastes better than sports cards
I personally think the only card that’s gonna hold value is the 2022 Series 2 Sp
But what do I know
I just ripped 10 hangers hunting for it. Only short print I did pull was Ozzie Albies.
My advice. Focus on cards pre-Fanatics purchase.
Welcome to junk wax 2.0. Its here and we just didnt know it..😁
The current market is unsubstanible and Fanatics business model success depends on increasing the market significantly which I think is impossible
I don't know how anyone buys packs anymore. You have a 1 percent chance of even making your money back you have 0.5 percent of making a profit
Flagship Gold, Black, SSP is the way to go imo.
I totally agree. I think that black parallel will always be the go to for collectors and investors alike!
Unfortunately the prices for those cards push out the majority of collectors from ever having a chance to own one.
@@johnwayne9828 agree John. I think the best value for your dollar is in the golds. They tend to be cheaper for 80% of the rookie class and overtime still hold the iconic status due to the consistency. Of course the top guys you’ll always have to pay a premium for. Which is why I’m super selective/strategic in my Rookie buying. 98% of these guys that are "hot" now will fizzle out and not have HOF careers.
When you see people trading 13th season subset set/ inserts and wanting a fortune when 80% gem mint psa10’s- but people keep buying- the rookie isn’t part of it
Different collectors.
You also have to realize no one knew who Mike trout was in 2009- 2011 had topps had any idea Trout was as good as he was they would have flooded the market with trout when he was a rc. JROD is a known talent that we have all known about for years now. Now yes they have ruined the hobby with flooding the market like 2003ish your right there.
I still would Rather have my J-rod's Rookie Cards then Trouts Rookie card 🤔
That's why I think people sleep on the Topps Now RC cards. Those PR are set and done, and public.
The hard part of Topps Now long term is the fact the aren't pack pulled. That usually makes them less desirable, but I do agree I love that they include the print runs publicly! Some people are big Topps Now collectors and might make bank big time in the future!
@@scottiebcards2354 Yeah I see your point about them not being pack-pulled. And they are different as a concept too. To me is not only the low PR, but they also add a sense of introduction to the majors and milestones like 1st MLB hit, HR, clutch moments, cool stats, etc, so as a whole the collection becomes like the highlight reel of the player's rookie year. I don't know, to me It feels more personal than a variation photo that only brings scarcity to the equation, although I see the value in the flagship cards too, don't get me wrong, but like you've stated many times, it is becoming increasingly harder to agree on what the flagship cards are anymore.
A 1/1 is still the obvious best, right?
Its should be 1980 style...each brand Topps etc...only 1 rookie card in the Flagship series...ie their is only 1 Topps Ricky Henderson rookie for Topps...
I hate this too, because I feel that Julio can be one of the Greatest Players we’ve seen since Trout and a few others if not better! Definitely will be hard to be as good as or better than Trout which was the best of this generation in my eyes! But if Julio stays healthy and plays the way he has he can easily be one of the best to play the game! Not the best!!! That’s a hard one to say, to me Mantle will Always Be The Goat! But that’s My Opinion!!!
What happens if fanatics takes over panini with the licensing? The bubble is going to burst again.
Broken if your trying to make.alot of money. Perfect if your a kid trying to collect
Prices are still high on hobby boxes, but we are getting there for younger generations!
I am an old timey card collector. I haven't gotten into the more current cards. A couple weeks ago I went to purchase a rookie card of an NFL player I am a fan of. Holy farg. I searched out "said player" rookie.....what a joke. There were so many "rookie" cards. I am used to "this is the main rookie card, and then there are 3 or 4 other brands that also released rookies". Not dozens of rookies with multiples being from the same manufacturer. Talk about over saturation, and overkill. I have absolutely no interest in that.
These flagship SPs are just plain stupid imho. It dilutes the Update rookies for no reason except greed. Ironic Trout's true MLB RC is in Update only 😂
Junk wax era 2.0... smack dab in the middle of it... and it isn't looking like it will end anytime soon.
But do you take into account that there's allot more collectors than 10 years ago... so it might actually balance itself out... everything 2018 and before is gonna be way lower print runs than the years after... when serial numbered cards were exactly what they said...I been collecting 35 years and all these new products are killing the fun... especially if you have to kill the weekend with your wife just to open a new product... ain't happening
Yup time to stop buying wax to force Topps to print less
Mass producing scarcity. It's the Topps way.
Most recent comp of a trout update PSA 10 is $1575. If a Julio PSA 10 is worth $500 in 10 years, I don't think that'll be a huge problem...the ones that will be interesting are if Torkelson or someone who didn't set the world on fire this year takes off. The set is the best sports card set since the Pandemic.
Hey Bryan, thanks for watching. I have a very hard time believing the Julio will be that high. The Juan Soto Update PSA 10 only goes for $75 right now and there are less of those than the Julio. I think the Julio settles around $50 for PSA 10s within the next 3-5 years.
@@scottiebcards2354 thatd be fine with me. I'd love to have a psa 10 for 50 bucks.
So cards
are booming rn
just buy 1st bowmans. they're the real rookie CARD.. like mark mcgwires rookie it's his first major card. that's bowman. topps is dead
and yes I know topps owns bowman
Anything after 2013 I’m
Out
im priced out. cant afford cards right now. the hobby has gotten ridiculously overpriced
… I’m not trying to bash Julio Rodriguez… says the guy who makes a sport of hating on anyone & everyone in a Mariners uniform 🤣🤣🤣 If you ask me, this is just soft scottie being naughty 👿 😂😂
We get it!!!!! All of our cards are junk!!! Nobody invest!!!! Unless it's trout or mookie!!! Lol same videos. Different days.
Occasionally my videos might have similar themes, but this was new research. It also is not to say your cards are worthless, but rather giving awareness to those that are trying to chase everything with modern (which is impossible).
Also, it is not just trout or Mookie, but essentially anyone from 2002-2017 with lower print runs.
I’m sorry you didn’t like the video.
@@scottiebcards2354 well it has to be new numbers for a new player. And slightly tweaked things to compare it to tell the... same story. Same outcome. New day. But I get it, we all get it. It's what's get views on YT right now and it's not like you're dead wrong or anything on the subject matter. And I don't have a problem with your channel. But wow, YT is all doom and gloom and it's going to milk that dry. As a watcher it feels like people think the market and hobby is stupid and needs constant coaching or something. It's weird.. Everyone is on repeat. "Be careful now" "Don't do this, do that" "This won't have value, but this will bc trust me" "junk wax era, overproduction" "sky is falling" yada yada. and it's even more sad to see what some people are saying in the comments. I always watch though. Having more fun than I've ever had in the hobby rn and know what I'm doing... I'll retire off my base US44s and all will be good....😂 okay too far.. lol but life goes on. Just had to share my perspective. Rant over.. once I started, couldn't stop. Sorry.
I just bought a series 1 binder of Playboy chromium refractor cards. One of those cards is the Donald Trump card, his rookie card essentially. When I think about what's going to be valuable in 20 years, I'm investing in stuff like this that have iconic people in them, that aren't iconic product, that there are very very few of. I think this Playboy said is a much smarter investment than just about anything else new you could put your money into. I think this will only get more valuable in time whereas sports cards can have their abs and flows. I also have a set of the leaf metal decision 2020, the full gamut, all 10 people, 2/5 Orange and I got it for a great price, again I think in 20 years, all 10 of those people or at least, six out of the 10 of those people will be a person that is still talked about long after their death. I've basically changed my entire strategy in this game and I've been on the forefront of all of this in the last 6 years or so, seeing the trends and buying what has proven to be extremely intelligently, so I just wanted to share this for anyone else that's looking for something to put their money into, there are still a few of the refractors available, a few of the Donald Trump cards are on eBay, I don't think you can find the refractor set anywhere but if you can I would snatch it up, but those cards are iconic and it's not just the Donald trump, there are lots of big name star cards that made their first appearance on something in that set, like Jerry Seinfeld and Pamela Anderson ... just to name a couple...
And your last 3 minutes says it all... You're not including the STRIKE as to why people "left the hobby".
There is a recent rookie who has way less cards than most rookies but could be more valuable if his team wins the World Seried in the next 5 years!
#2
Thanks for watching Paul!
@@scottiebcards2354 love your videos.
Man, I enjoy watching Trout play (when he’s not hurt ) BUT at some point he has to win something 🤔
OTHERWISE= it all just equates to a “stats” career, which is a loser’s mentality NOT TO MENTION just hype for his card values, imo 🍻
Hey Joey, thanks for watching! I disagree slightly on the Trout take. Ted Williams, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds, Tony Gwynn, Ty Cobb, and many many more hall of famers didn't have post season success/win a world series, but still hold a massive premium. Trout will be fine long term just like Griffey in my eyes. Mookie has two world series and it does not help his values at all. Baseball is not basketball where a championship is career and legacy defining.
@@scottiebcards2354 facts. Madbum is arguably the greatest postseason pitcher in history and you can still find his 08 bc autos for under $100.
Winning a championship in Baseball is nowhere near the same as the NBA with only 5 players on the court, or the QB who has the ball every offensive play. People who just flat out don't like Trout use this silly argument all the time. No one devalues Trout's cards because he hasn't won. No one has ever said that in the 45 years I have been in Baseball collecting about any player. Reals sports people understand how important it is to have a full pitching staff and several players that can hit timely in the playoffs which contributes to a "team" winning. Trout will always carry a premium since he is already ready to step into the HOF the minute he is done, and yet he is only 31. The upside is unreal for Trout's pricing.
😂😂😂🤦🏼♂️
@@wutango36o to be fair, 2014 was won almost single handedly by bumgarner. The rest of the staff had an era pushing 10 that postseason. The only time I've seen a player carry a team through october.