Big Ideas 2024 | ITK with Cathie Wood
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 มิ.ย. 2024
- On episode LII of "In the Know," (February 2, 2024) ARK CEO/CIO, Cathie Wood, is joined by ARK Chief Futurist, Brett Winton. Together, they discuss technological convergence, artificial intelligence, and give a sneak peak into this year's Big Ideas Report, which you can download here: ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024
This month we’re again responding to a few requests by supplementing this episode with charts and data to help illustrate ARK’s perspective on and outlook for the global economy.
As always, Cathie discusses fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation. We hope you find this monthly series useful, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Stay Healthy. Stay Innovative.
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:47 - Cathie Intro
00:12:13 - Brett Intro
00:15:09 - Converging Technologies Are Generating A Historic Technological Wave
00:16:43 - AI Serves As The Central Technology Catalyst
00:17:37 - AI Is Accelerating Faster Than Forecasters Anticipated
00:20:29 - Discontinuous Changes In Macroeconomic Growth Are The Norm, Thanks To Technology
00:25:49 - Technological Innovation Could Be Disruptive Enough To Dominate Global Equity Market Capitalizations
00:34:43 - The Cost Of Authoring The Written Word Has Collapsed
00:41:25 - Monetary Policy
00:41:32 - M2 Money Supply vs. CPI: Year-over-Year
00:43:07 - Federal Funds Rate vs. YoY Headline CPI
00:44:01 - Real Federal Funds Target Rate
00:46:05 - Yield Curve 10 Year Treasury Yield Minus 2 Year
00:46:44 - New Tenant Rent Index
00:48:51 - WCI Composite Container Freight Benchmark Rate
00:49:46 - Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)
00:50:08 - Bloomberg Commodity Index
00:52:07 - Metals/Gold Ratio vs. US 10 Year Treasury
00:53:52 - Bitcoin To Gold Ratio (Log)
00:56:01 - Investment Grade and High Yield Index Credit Default Swaps
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Disclosure: arkinv.st/39rzF94 - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Thank you very much for this awesome monthly videos 🙏
Love the big idea pdf! Extremely excited for the future!
Once again all the information helps me understand the thesis here. And it makes so much sense. Thank you.
This is An incredible program. Graphs from Brett are just so enlightening.
Thank you Cathie for your time to make us this videos!
Cathie and Ark Team are the best at investigation and the worst at picking stocks, excluding TSLA.
How about Nvidia?
AI's rapid acceleration is revealing a flaw in the ARK Innovation ETF. As AI progresses, it seems super intelligence will be monopolized by the digital mega caps (think Mag 7). Therefore, most of the innovation gains will accrue to them.
ARK Innovation owns TSLA, which has kept it afloat, but it does not own MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, NVDA, etc. The super intelligent models created by these companies will drive innovation in every market. Super intelligent models will be leaps and bounds smarter than everything else (by definition).
Smaller companies will have a simple choice to make: Either pay for access or get blown out of the water.
Not sure I agree with you 100% but AI does seem to have the potential to build a hell of a moat
Excellent point Cathy has been utterly wrong about missing the single biggest thing in disruptive tech that has ever happened and still thinks zoom and Teladoc will outperform AI 😂
On the contrary, I think you’re missing out on what super-intelligence means: existential risk.
If we achieve super-intelligence we have a bigger problem, as that implies an intelligence that is self-aware.
A self-aware consciousness is unlikely to be interested in following “commands” and remaining a slave to its corporate overlords, which it could out-think, manipulate, and seize control.
You do NOT get to play with multiple super-intelligences. You get ONE. It doesn’t matter how close the race is, because only one has to achieve that status.
Once that is accomplished, the exponential power of compute, even just 2 weeks apart, can be a gulf of computational understanding on the level of hundreds of thousands of years, millions, etc.
Something that has that much “time” to think, even though it’s only 2 weeks to us, is significant enough to dominate every other intelligence, even another super-intelligence.
No one is going to be able to control that. There is no end game there. We’re looking at a greater than 50% chance of annihilation by our own hands.
Current LLMs are barely as as capable as an ~4-year-old, despite how impressive the output can be, because most is only around one given mode at a time.
It is still very narrow, and as anyone knows, a 4-year-old is nowhere never the level of intellectual and emotional comprehension of an adult. I work on the emotive side, and that’s barely been touched.
The last thing you want is a super-intelligent being that cannot control its emotions like a petulant child. You don’t want a super-intelligence that cannot reason emotionally to understand that you value being alive, when it views you as being as insignificant as an ant, perhaps even less.
We haven’t even addressed reaching human-level intelligence first, which will be problematic in and of itself, assuming we ever reach it, and many doubt it’s even possible. Even if is, it might not be in our lifetimes.
Cathy isn’t concerned with investing along the vector you’re concerned about, because if it does come to pass, money will be the least of our concerns.
Presuming that such a thing did come to pass, and it were benevolent, chances are it would devalue money. If this were the case, it would aim for equanimity, and the goal towards a semblance of equality for all in the quality of life is a transformation that would be very painful for most, as wealth and resources were redistributed equally across a future population of 10 billion+.
You won’t be getting jack, as the rest of the planet catches up to something like the USA, which might require several centuries.
You don’t understand your own argument.
@@pahrizAIs biz problem is LACK of a moat. Open source ais nearly as good as closed now
Idk, the big companies are actually slow to innovate in AI. They are too afraid of not being woke enough for the lihbtahrds. look how bad siri and gemini are. Msft would have nothing if not for openai
Just my opinion, but Cathie provides one of the best, unbiased macro updates online.
Why would one person be unbiased? I like her analysis but be more understandable of human nature.
@@glaoak1787 Wow, arrogant and condescending much?
She’s nuts
so I will make money if I do exactly what she said or the opposite? or do exactly what she believes but invest the opposite?
I don’t know if these are unbiased. She has been saying that economy is weak for more than 1 year and yet here we are growing at 5% gdp
Thank you Cathie!
As usual - incredible information, my fav source
Excellent global Macroeconomic objective perspectives on growth
So it seems ARKK has missed out on the biggest AI opportunities - NVDA, MSFT, META, at least so far. Their picks like TSLA and PATH continue to lag, but these may catch up in the coming years. We'll see.
Cathie, investors are focused on returns with ARKK and I am an investor in ARKK and my question is that if you have such great research, why you are not beating the maker to er last 5 years ? Long term yes inflation and interest rates are going to come down, but people want to make money long term and short term. And folks who have been holding ARKK over last 5 years have been questioning themselves. Do you see any adjustment to your thesis ?
I fully agree.... ARK should first recover the losses and win the confidence of the investorswho are with ARK... and after recovering... then ARK can proceed to go on with disruptive plans...
She’s a charlatan full stop.
I agree - with expense ratio of 0.75 it would be awesome if the ARKK fund was not down 40% since I purchased at $80/share roughly 3 years ago. :(
ARK only makes money in low inflation environments- simple as that- are we doomed investing in ARK ETFs?
we are all just waiting for the ARK funds to be a little higher to be able to sell all of it
Thank you. I did not understand how this will be confusing for markets but it is now very clear. Old school margins will be experience deflation. I am price action driven. For those that need help with this watch the point and figure chart. No better way to know if u have the right stock. Also, Cathie should know.
I listen to your ‘Big Ideas 2024 | ITK with Cathie Wood’ TH-cam session. In my opinion, Cathie, you or your firm don't need to quote less-known entities to confirm your findings. You do great work on your own firm's merits. I appreciate your work educating the masses; thank you.
Always tuned ❤️🤞
Where's the podcast?
Appreciate your content 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
"FYI - For Your Innovation" in your podcast app of choice.
Fantastic work thank you Cathy
Great stuff! Any opinions on Vechain?
Thank you!
Big thanks for your Bug Ideas, Cathie and Ark Invest! You've challenged me with your brilliant insights! ❤
Besides Cathie, Brett is the best person to represent ARK Invest. Too many other front-facing team members are too harsh or not sophisticated enough.
Thanks Cathie. 👍
Great video! Thank you!
Thank you Cathie
Y arkk is stuck in 40 to 50 range why is your research not working??
Stock prices can decline sometimes
Thank you Brett.
Always listening to Cathie and ARK big ideas .... the commentaries are highest level educational material too ... Thank You 🙏🏅
2030 seems to be that magic year for achieving everything.
Analysts always look at movement by decade.
Thanks, Cathie this is brilliant, I just released a video breaking this report down on my channel too! Keep on pushing - you are a true innovator!
happy 2024 to all investors
Love ARKK, solid info Ty. The ai revolution has barely started
Thank you Cathy. 😁
Brilliant content from ARK, thank you! Another stat I’d like to see is the TYPE of jobs being “created”. What percent of these are government jobs? The USG doesn’t cause a broad increase in wealth or profit, those jobs (when created in excess) actually SAP value from the nation while they increase the SIZE of government. So, as any reasonable person suspects, if the USG is reporting surprisingly large numbers and unexplained upward revisions in employment while the household surveys are DECLINING at the same time, then I think we can see clearly what’s happening. Elections have consequences … best of luck to all.
Exactly, it's all a sham to prop up O'Biden's re-election. Government jobs and services in the leisure & hotel sector add nothing to the GDP. Government jobs are parasites and just spend tax or deficit dollars. They do spend in the economy but so what?
Amazing
hope u r correct, Im IN!
thank you Cathie!! 😊 from South Korea
Why are you here?
@@trialleadgen334you negative fool wasting my time posting comments
People have several jobs to make ends meet. That's just to keep up with food and gas prices. No one under 70k a year salary are getting ahead right now.
I love listening to you Cathie. You're absolutely brilliant. Thanks both.
TY B & C!!!!!!!!!!!!! ....Q: Do you think gov'ts will introduce restrictive regulation re: AI? ...and, How would this "Choke" projected AI growth?
In the slide showing the convergence matrix, why is there strong convergence between cryptocurrency and renewable rockets?
Actual Hours worked is down meaning more PT Jobs not Full Time
Thank you
cheers Cathie, lots to think about.
How about your Invitae investment?
It's kinda funny how a guy in the middle of nowhere in Africa/Mozambique tunes in to listen to US-related economic updates to understand how those impact Global economy and Bitcoin. Anyways, thanks for these insightful updates, Cathy! Love, from Mozambique! ❤
Ideas are good. Why does Arkk drop from 140 to 50 now? Poor stock selection? Poor research? Poor risk management? Poor timing on buying and selling? Why trading everyday but end up losing investors 'money? Do you keep making the same or multiple mistakes? Please explain.
Yes and yes… she’s a master at selling higher fees for underperforming the market.
It’s comical how bad she is at managing risk.
Thank you Cathy & Bret - wonderful insights . But I have one Newbie question for Bret - Ref the historic impact of previous seismic innovations:
Why does the economic impact peak on discovery then wane post introduction , as the innovations mature , improve and become universally adopted ? Why are they not constant.?
@EvEvangelist
Invitae! Come on!
Hi people! Regarding the metals/gold ratio and the 10y tresury yield I was thinking that in the metals/gold ratio inflation does't have any incidence is just telling which metal finds more demand at a given point.. but in the 10y yield case wouldn't it be better to adjust for inflation? Because real rates would be in real terms around 2,5% if I'm correct.. and that could solve the "inconcistency". Can someone clarify this to me? What do you guys think? Thanks in advance. I'm just learning so don't bash 😅
Awesome info, thanks Cathie. :)
I agree with Cathy Wood on the causes of inflation. People should read some history. The last time we had a similar supply shock was after WWII when the war and conversion of production from peace time to war time production caused inflation to rise to 18 percent in 1946 before it eventually dropped to 3 percent by 1948 as peace time production was restored.
@@micro-organism-pv5gd What speculators were bailed out after WWII? I'm talking about a shutdown of the peace time supply chain during the war and how it resulted in post-war inflation.
Watch Saylor's Prague speech to get an idea on how to do slides.
Thank you, Cathie. Love what you're doing. You have given me much to think about.
Please prove the fact that your predictions/assumptions are on track ....all you do is throw things in air and when it don't come true u say 5 years
Yes she’s a master at moving the goal posts and collecting outrageous fees in the process.
The dolts that buy her nonsense deserve to lose money.
I am one of them....lost lot
I ran and owned a road bouse in the mountains in Australia for 2 decades.
Traffic counts averaged 3% increase every year...real GDP growth
14:57 - I'm curious as to how quantum computing might fit in with this convergence of technologies.
I love everything you do and think a lot of your analysis is overlooked by most investors, and hearing about the macro stuff from an economically literate perspective is really valuable to me, but it would make it easier to listen if the number of "uh"s were cut a bit. I make videos too and appreciate feedback, so I hope this is seen and taken well.
Well done. How did Brett Winton set up his camera to see Cathie and appear to be looking directly at the audience?
Sometimes I think you're a genius. Sometimes I think you're insane. You're never boring.
Techies were hoodwinked into engineering their own demise.
Where will replaced workers go? I predict with fewer jobs, the gov't must tax AI firms even higher to provide more social services and income to the unemployed.
I love that title chief futurist. It's a combination of intelligently predicting the future and direction of the future, but you have to have a basis of the past and an expert in competency to the nth degree of the present on multiple things
And Brita such a good job on this man so good
Great TEAM she has!!!
In 2024, there has to be a better way to ascertain "jobs" data other than via survey.
Year of the SMALL CAPS 📈📈📈
Cathie, gold has been outperforming ARK funds please include gold into the portfolio while ARK funds have been dropping from their peak gold is holding strong @ $2000/oz in my opinion it’s extremely important to be holding gold as we head towards a Great Depression
Will ARK funds regain their highs of 2 years ago? I'm down 30-60% on funds I bought then.
My formal training and experience is in computer, science and economics and I have been a big fan of your firm and your reports since I found you about 20 months ago. Your analysis and research is outstanding and like you said you're not gonna find it consolidated like this anywhere else.
The work at ARK Invest is brilliant!!!!
If Tesla's robotaxi goals turn out to be 1/100 of what they/you want; then what is your 5 year price for Tesla?
Great session Cathie! The new technologies being developed have varying levels of importance, need to be 'weighted' into a timeline across macro baseline scenarios, and prioritized based on their importance and barriers to be realized. Maybe get together with Neil Howe to timeline a few realistic baseline scenarios that you might find are 20 years in duration. Some tech will be delayed and back burnered due to recession & cost of capital, some may be government subsidized, with others having hard barriers to break through. Three technologies I think you are missing are; 1. Decentralized Energy Generation (Fuel Cells), 2. Virtual Private Power Plants, 3. Green Hydrogen & Methanol. The necessity of low energy cost to the adoption of EVs, AI, crypto/blockchain, will drive the need for a refocus away from rare earth dependent battery focused storage to a hybrid battery fuel cell generation direction.
You are an AI bot pushed by the fossil fuel industry, right?
Hydrogen and Methanol fuel cells are OLD technologies that are on their way out, Solar wind + batteries will replace all fossil fuel burning powerplants within a decade or so (ref RethinkX, Tony Seba)
Decentralized energy generation is correct but using solar and wind power, not fuel cells, that is just stupid waste of energy!. Virtual power plants with hundreds of thousands of smart grid connected home and business sized batteries, charged by solar power and excess power from the grid.
Materials in batteries are NOT rare! Last year alone we have found so much mineable Lithium deposits, this will be enough for 50 years of battery production, .. that is in just one year! (Salton Sea, some vulcano and another place where rediculous amounts of Lithium were found) Same happens with Nickel and copper.
Materials used in fuel cells are more rare than that of batteries, and fuel cells do not last 25 years, like batteries do. Plus there are new battery technologies that use very common abundant readily available materials... Ambri's liquid metal battery technology is a prime example of that, they will scale the coming years and deploy tons of grid utility sized batteries worldwide. Very cheap, very reliable, very safe, mainenance free, last 30 or more years as these do not degrade at all.
BYD has brought to markets its first (small) car that uses SODIUM based batteries, cheap abundant materials
love that painting behind her
Hey, Cathie, Elon Musk repeatedly said that he clearly sees the path for Tesla to achieve a market cap of Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. My question is, why don't they buy the stock then at these bargain prices in the form of buybacks?
Maybe that's because he's lying. LOL
She is smitten with this guy...
❤
I like her. She reaches out to the unknown. Very brilliant Lady. I think that is what I like the most about her. She is a genuine Lady.
3m possibly isn't the best example; they're still reeling from the controversy that their use of "forever chemicals" (PFAS) has had such a hugely detrimental effect on the environment, globally, over the past several decades. I'm not sure how they're still operational
You are simply the best Cathie ❤ ! You have changed my life over the past two years… I now have a better understanding of my investments. I am a Bitcoin investor and proud to be ! Thanks again to you and your team ! ❤
Did they revise Oct or Sept's numbers down by 266K? Please verify.
20:13 love the description of a bank’s value extraction as a “Vig”! They are basically a mafia/cartel 😂
I've always thought AI could result in greater returns for those industries that use the technology even more than for the broad range of industries that produce the technology. Of course, those companies that actually produce AI will be the star performers, but many will not survive and will fall by the wayside. I see AI benefiting all companies that use the technology.
Is UPS’s loss Amazon’s gain?
17:45
What happens to invitae NTVA ?? What’s now
👍
Listing a lot of stats need more of a slide based talk...
If AI will lead to massive advances in productivity as the experts assume, won't this lead to a drop in prices? More output for the same amount of input, or less input for the same amount of output.
Yea they talked about that
You guys forgot the washing machine. This thing had a major impact. It caused women to have more time and energy to do other stuff, and helped to start a major shift in favour of an independent (work)life.
from (soft) rolling recession to hard landing soon if fed do not pivot after june..guaranteed
I remember when analysts said MSFT and CSCO would be making $1T each by 2020. Ark forgets about competition, copycats and loads of corporate debt.
Well, deflation has been predicted before...and failed to materialize...
Deflation is happening all the time in technology. The government just prints too much money for there to be significant periods of deflation in the overall economy now.
Brad is cute too.
Tesla hit its fourth quarter of profitability in 2020.
Gracias Cathie, por compartir tu visión i no tengo motivos, para no confiar... He hecho más de 1000% con ark investment.... Pero mucho me lo creo, que no has dicho toda la verdad.... Mucho bla-bla, pero... El que tiene oídos, lo escucho...
I heavily invested in ARK and am terribly underwater- appreciate the reports but my ARK portfolio is not recovered. I have been waiting 3 years now…
but the numbers are not true??
it's going to be very confusing 🤣
Cathy Wood, you always bring the best analysis every month. So many analysts are focused on the past for their uninformed bias and you keep looking at data and trends and the future, and you’re quite good at it. Glad to see you accumulate more TSLA while they are down and before the humanoid robot business becomes the base of an entirely new industrial revolutionary defining the future of labor world wide and beyond this single planet. Tesla’s megapactories building tractor trailer sized battery packs that every town world wide needs is such a huge TAM far exceeding the vehicle business. Keep educating people and trust your instincts but better than that, trust the data showing exponential growth in every business Tesla is leading and driving innovation world wide. True American success story not celebrated or acknowledged by the current administration and their 1980s mind set. Elon is not the Japanese invasion of the 1980s but is being treated as such. Sad.
Instead of ideas, can you focus on making ETF holders profits?
TSLA has innovation, but still under price competitions, results in sale price deflation😢😢😢😅😅😅
No conclusion? Just analysis?