US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX | Projections & Timing | Multiple Time Frame Cycle and Chart Analysis
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ก.ย. 2024
- Enjoy a clip from the latest episode of the askSlim Market Week.
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#Trader, analyst and mentor, Steve "Slim" Miller is an active trader in index futures, #gold, #silver, #bonds, oil, #dollar, euro, stocks and #options. He is also a trader coach and hedge fund consultant. Slim is a past member of the CBOE, CBOT and Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Slim looks at things differently than most market analysts. He applies his unique cycle analysis to nearly 400 widely held stocks, futures and ETFs. Learn the most unique style of technical analysis, evolved from the work of JM Hurst's book, "Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing"
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Amazing info. Thank you!
Our pleasure!
sei un grande grandissimo maestro , non ascoltare le chiacchere della gente che pensa di sapere ma non sa nulla . La tua esperienza aiuta molti di noi che necessitano di formazione Grazie Maestro Steve
Apprezzo sempre il tuo supporto e gli ottimi commenti
Thanks Steve, that was very informative
Glad it was helpful!
gentile Steve , qui in Italia un analista ciclico vede rialzo fino al 7 marzo e poi giù fino a inizio di maggio. avete delle analisi similari e potrebbe essere un utile rafforzamento delle vostre posizioni comuni. Ancora grazie . (scusa maestro Steve, quando avrai modo , se potrai, posta un aggiornamento sul Natural Gas che dovrebbe essere ora ai minimi) Buona domenica saluti Rolando
Grazie ancora! È bello sapere che c'è un altro analista che fa un lavoro simile con proiezioni simili. Effettuiamo analisi del gas naturale, disponibile per i membri, di livello 2 e superiore. Non è qualcosa che spesso rendiamo pubblico.
Love the analysis. Working great my man.
Appreciate it!
I think NVDA will make or break the market. I think it is going to break after earnings on Wednesday.
I’ve been thinking this too.
Expectations would seem very lofty. Chances likely favor a sell-off shortly after earnings report.
Very well could be
Blow off top or they disappoint either way the market goes south. Can’t see this market continuing going higher especially with sticky inflation
Thank you Slim!❤
You're welcome 😊
Slim, this is nonsense you are doing this for free. Even I am not your client I watch your vids every week to lost personal trading biases about market. Excellent HQ work! I do not understand why people follow trash youtubers with no trading experience. Your 40+ years in industry is a must education for me! Thank you!
Thanks for your great comments! Yes, we give away a lot. However, this is our best marketing venue. Featuring our approach highlights the value of becoming a premium member, as our offerings are amazing.
Can you do a video about how and why you expect the price of gold and spx to intersect? you spoke about it in another video. thanks
Might not be until later 2025 or 2026 or 2027.......We still have a lot of time until that potentially comes. It would occur under a pretty nasty recession type crash in US markets where S&P dips below 3,000.
Correct
It’s discussed in the year-end special. I am not able to elaborate in social media
thank you slim! can you update $meta? you used to say it is going to perform the worst in big7 this year. but so far it doesnt seem so?
Yes, as I have said previously, so far I’m wrong. It’s updated for level2+ members on our charts.
To add a bit more rudimentary data to confirm the case for a pull back. It's looking a lot to me like a top this week and then a correction for a few reasons. Using SPY... go back to the start of the major measured move going back to the pandemic low. During the recovery, SPY hit a double bottom at the end of September and the end of October '20. Using that as a key point in the first leg of the measured move that could be repeated in the second leg, the target of that corrective move is between 501.70 and 505.20 depending on if you use the close of 10/30/2020 or the wick. You could also measure from the pivot high on 6/9/2020 that's slightly above the lows of the double bottom, the measured move target is 504.60.
Those measured move targets of 504.60 and 505.20 will intersect with a trend line made from connecting the highs on 12/1/2022 (or 12/12/2022) and the high on 7/27/2023, nearly right on the dot. Just to show that importance of that line, SPY crossed it on 2/12 and then got massively sold off so hard that between 2/12-2/13, there was a 2.55% sell off. Yes, there are sellers above that line, and it just happens to intersect with major target points of the major measured move. The trend line will intersect the 504.60 point on Tuesday, and the 505.20 point on Wednesday. This resistance trend line is forming a wedge with the bottom bull channel support line formed by connecting the close on 10/27/2023 to the lows on 1/16 and 2/13.
Also just to point out, that bottom corrective move range, 501.70, it hit it on 2/9 and sold off. It went above it on 2/12, and sold off. It managed to close just above it on 2/15, but sold down to it in after hours opening on it on 2/16, and then selling off again.
This doesn't mean SPY absolutely must top by Tuesday/Wednesday, it could potentially top by as late Tuesday 2/27 (or 2/28) given this is the date the wedge terminates depending on how you draw that top resistance line. However, 2/26 is the last day before SPY can stay in the wedge and not go above that 505.20 measured move target. Sure, SPY could spike above it briefly, and I imagine the sellers would come in hard and spike the price back down harder than they did on 2/13.
There's another component lining up to suggest a high of 504.60. Drawing the first leg of a measured move from either the bottom on 2/2/2024 or from the open that day to the top on 2/12, the measured move target price is smack dab either right on top of 504.60, or between it and 505.20. There are a lot of signals adding up to suggest a top around those two target prices and a breakout from this wedge on or before 2/27. I mean, it's very rare for a break out of a wedge to hold off until the very last possible day of the wedge.
Then the last bit of information. Nvidia's earnings are on Wednesday 2/21. We may get one last buy the rumor spike on Tuesday or Wednesday, maybe even a good earnings report that spikes price, but then a tepid guidance during the call that causes a sell the news event. If Nvidia drops, all semiconductors, all tech, and the S&P and Nasdaq indexes will likely drop with it. The Russel... hard to say. Maybe we'll see some of that tech money redistribute into small caps.
As to downside targets; now I'm not saying we see an exact inverse move of what happened in October 2020... but... if we peak at 504.60, then that exact price move from October 2020 from high to low, including the wicks, takes SPY down to 473.38 nearly on the dot. Has that price had any significance in the past? Yep. It was used as support and resistance throughout the 12/15/2023 - 1/15/2024 range, as well as the 11/22/2021 - 1/14/2022 range. Isn't that convenient...
That isn't to say we couldn't go under this line. I mean, that line was used as resistance/support, but it was also crossed multiple times.
If we do get a very close inverse mirror of the 2020 move from 7/30/2020 - 10/30/2020... then we could see sideways consolidation with that initial drop to 473.38, a bounce to 506.42 (new ATH), followed by another drop to around 468, which is the bottom of the 12/15-1/15 range. If equal time to the inverse mirror, that 468 bottom would hit around 4/1/2024.
Now consider this... your average retail bear will be screaming "DOUBLE TOP SELL OFF" after that pop to 506.42 and sell-off. Market makers will love to hear it as they start flooding the market with capital again. Retail traders who think this is just a pull back in an uptrend will be buying as well. It'll cause yet another huge extended short squeeze. If it goes back to following the major measured move, then SPY Could go on a heater up to that 585-610 target, in as clear a blow off top as could possibly be imagine, before finally seeing a major sell-off.
Alternatively, there's yet another major measured move pattern with first leg from the October '21 low to the July '23 high. That would take SPY up to around 520. That's also a reasonable ultimate upside target that I think may be more correct than 585-610. Namely that's because the pandemic sell off was just a black swan event. I don't think we can expect to see the market spike up like it spiked down then, so I'm doubtful you'd measure the major measured move from the pandemic bottom.
This type of move all makes sense from the macro side of things. The FED rate cuts have been pushed back to at least June, and we know markets usually top just prior to or just after the first rate cut. Delaying the cut from March to June has given the market time to correct and consolidate before its final leg up.
If we go all the way back to 2000, a similar year to 2024 (election year, huge tech bubble), then the sell-off will recover to a near double top (520 makes sense for this), a pretty big initial drop and recovery into a few months of sideways consolidation, that ultimately ends in a recession and multi-year major market sell off about 10-14 months.
Thanks for sharing your analysis. As the previous comment, we use different analytical tools. Note that this is way more than I normally comment on in social media. Comments and reviews of analysis of this sort are reserved for level 4 members. Please consider joining if you wish that type of interaction.
Looks like it becomes dicy soon - hope you keep us informed as this level of analysis is definitely out of reach for most of us. Your warning to not just sell everything or even short is wise as a Bull market usually has some surprising up-action days to derail the plan of premature Bears. Thank you!
Appreciate your very good comments.
Haven't watched Slim in a very long time and wanted to see if we are on the same page....he's 100% right. Significant top in the next week or two.
Welcome back. Appreciate your comments.
Could see OMH off 4850 zone!
Really enjoyed this breakdown, Thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
very very good...thx Slim
Really appreciate your comment
I think we are going down next week
👍
Amazing content
I really appreciate that!
we going to 5100 dont fight it , great charting jb
Possible- thanks!😊
👍
😀
This stuff doesn't work
Then stay away from
Works for me
Steve is literally mapping institutional crowd sentiment and business cycles. It's been working and self evident since the 1920s & before at the dawn of markets like rice merchants in Asia. Most of the time people do not understand what they are seeing, when looking at the work of high level traders. The markets & human crowd psychology are really simple. The unstable human mind getting emotionally triggered is the main obstacle to clarity and disciplined trading decisions. Most of us need lots of self development work to understand the smart money behaviors and appropriately join them
I’m guessing you haven’t been at the WorkShop! Steve Miller & team do it!
@@askSlimTeamdon’t be miffed. That’s just Jim Cramer
I hate this fucking bullshit market
I know!
Why?
When this shitcoin finally will fall???? I wait already week!!!!!
When it’s done