Will Lagos be the first city to 100 million?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ย. 2024
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Demographers believe that African cities will be some of the largest in the world by 2100, and soon after Lagos, Nigeria could cross the 100 million people barrier. Why Lagos? And what will it be like?
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Lagos is a city that deserves WAY more attention on it both in terms of its problems but also how it intends to solve it. This definitely deserves a second part which talks about the Lagos Metro Network, Nigerian Higher speed rail, EKO Atlantic island, the cities attempt at creating a Dubai-like Waterfront district for the Super-rich... Or people building affordable climate-proof floating architecture for the fisherman cultures who still live along the coast...
This would be really great!!!
Why have I not heard of this before? I hear more about Brunei and Morocco than all subsaharan African nations combined and it's bs. South Africa, Rwanda and congo(s) being the exception, but Rwanda and congo are only in the context of the us vs China power struggle for gold in BRICS and cobalt for batteries.
@@Pistolita221dont depend on mainstream media to get your info.
Great response. I have seen a little content on Nigeria and Lagos and I do think their situation can be very interesting topic, especially for a channel like this. What are the plans for Lago, what SHOULD it do, what CAN it do?
It really challenges the perception that Africa is huts in the Serengeti
Lagos is actually now only projected to be 88 million inhabitants by 2100. Back in 2015 they thought Lagos would double it's 18 million population by 2030, but now it seems to be several million short of reaching that.
88 million? Ah even that is very huge figure.
Even then it probably won't even reach 88 million. This figure is for Nigeria as a whole but in 2019 the UN was projecting that Nigeria's population would grow to 733 million by the 2100, yet in 2022 these estimates were revised down to 546 million mostly due to Nigeria's falling fertilty rate. With the fertility rate continuing to fall it is doubtful if Nigeria's population will cross 500 million and by extension Lagos is unlikely to get anywhere near 88 million by the end of the century.
Exactly. Population projections are _continually_ being revised downwards. Nigeria's high fertility rate is now an anomaly in Africa generally and we'll likely see it decline rapidly precisely _because_ the country is urbanising so rapidly.@@highlander8402
@@highlander8402 that and also Nigeria will be one of the hardest hit location on earth if climate change continues to happen
i think estimates are still using somewhat of an inflated fertility rate which might not actually keep up going forward. either way what IS clear is that lagos is one of the cities that is growing really quickly right now
It's difficult for me to believe that projections all the way into 2100 will necessary pan out. My guess is that as African states continue to stablize politically, that faster economic growth will ensue, with the correlated fall in birth rates.
This process is already occuring in places like Kenya , where birth rates (while still high globally) have fallen noticeably over the last few decades, from 6.7 in 1989 to 3.4 in 2022. This is not even including if in the future more African governments start rolling out successful family planning programs to lower birth rates.
Overall, I think Africa's future is optimistic. Which Lagos, for all its shortcoming, I believe embodies. They even recently opened their first metro system!
Urbanization itself, if not directly causes, is at least correlated with a decrease in birth rates.
If the Lagos Metro line is to serve as an example, then I'm not very optimistic that Nigeria will get the infrastructure it needs to provide economical growth and sustain population growth.
@fmac6441 also 2 parents working
You are right....here in Kenya right now only rich and irresponsible people have more than 2 kids
UN long term projections have proven accurate historically, but we'll have to wait and see
Lagos recently opened the first line (the Blue Line) of its new Metro system. They have plans for more mass transit lines, although so far, the rollout has been.......interesting (IMHO, rushed and ugly). I really hope it doesn't end up like the failed Abuja Light Rail (also Nigerian), opened in 2018, where they spent about $800+ million only to end up running three diesel-hauled coaches, for 3 trips a day, pre-COVID. And the system hasn't reopened since 2020. But I don't like a couple signs for Lagos.
For starters, in January 2023, the Blue Line was technically inaugurated by the President......but the electric, third rail train was actually hauled by a diesel engine for that first, and only, ride. Looked more like just Photo-ops for politicians, because the line didn't actually open to the public until September 2023. Even fully opened, the system STILL lacked power, so they ran only 12 trips a day (YES, A DAY! Not in one rush hour...A DAY!) using the diesel engine until quite recently, when they finally hooked up a power plant to the train. They are supposedly running 76 trains a day now.
I can't remember the last time a modern, electric metro system opened and they still lacked energy to power it.
The Red Line commuter train is going to be just as interesting, because Lagos acquired a couple of old Amtrak Talgo trains for it. Not sure how that's gonna work out.
There are many infrastructural issues in African countries that rarely get mentioned, access to electricity is only one of them. Even a country as supposedly well run as South Africa has regular load shedding, houses and businesses that can afford it have their own generators.
@@Jablicekindonesia that consists of thousands of islands do better thsn them.
Yeah, the entire Nigerian power generation capacity is just around 4000 MW. The grid itself is old and can only handle around 3500 MW. And truly, the metros in Abuja and Lagos were botched so badly. The Lagos governor even stated it was unfair for Lagos to be forced to finance their metro themselves without any help from the central government. And it is truly insane that Nigeria is full of so many abandoned projects, the steel plant being the biggest. There's also the Calabar monorail that actually ran for a while and was shut down, and the Rivers monorail, where they built some of the track and stations, and left it there.
The Lagos governor has said that they will open and run the Red line, and construction is mostly complete. Also given the heavy commuter rush in Lagos, one can hope that the Lagos metro will make money and they will continue running it.
@@whaleguyexactly
@@rizkyadiyanto7922 no they dont
Just as a fun fact, it's actually pronounced "Lay-goss". A girl from Lagos told me this a while back because I was saying it wrong.
Watching him mispronounce Lagos the whole video was grating lol
And Niamey is roughly "nya-MAY", not the weird way he said it
And she actually prononces it wrong.😂 Its actually portugese word, so his pronanciation is closer to it, although still far away, but still nearer then butchered prononciation by english that came long time after.
@@alexejvornoskov6580 the Nigerian lady is pronouncing the name of her country's former capital the correct way. Yes, the word is Portuguese, meaning "lagoon", and yes, there is a port city in Portugal which also bears the name. Lagos, Portugal is pronounced closer to "lah-gosh" but Lagos, Nigeria is pronounced "lay-GOSS" or "lay-GOES". As any student of west African history knows, the Portuguese were some of the earliest Europeans to visit the region, and they built pretty strong royal ties with the great kingdom of Benin, which still exists in modern-day Nigeria, as far back as the middle 1600s.
Source: I lived in Lagos, Nigeria for a couple of years in the middle 2010s. A vibrant, chaotic but still beautiful city, and I would go back there in a heartbeat.
I had to laugh at the way he pronounced Lagos in anglophone Nigeria as a foreign word, but Niamey in francophone Niger as though it was English.
Logos is on track to become the largest city in the world, but conditions can change quickly. A few decades ago, Nigeria was on the brink of the African equivalent of the Irish Potato Famine when a virus attacked their staple crop - cassava.
And that's history repeating itself right there. Not sure why us humans gotta have bad shit happen to ourselves only for the almost exact same thing happens approximately 50 decades later. As if we unlearned everything. I guess human are too stubborn to even take anything into consideration.
@@AZTECKTHEBIGBOSS At least in this case, the things that scientists learned prior to the virus attacking cassava were used to create a solution.
Also climate change exist, and Nigeria is at risk of having outright lethal conditions more than 100 days a year by 2100
This take requires a deep lack of knowledge about both Nigerian and Irish history
@@DragonwolfoftheSands “Swiss agronomist and entomologist Dr Hans R. Herren is one of the world’s leading experts on biological pest control and sustainable agriculture. When a new pest threatened the cassava root in Africa, he designed and implemented a successful biological control programme that has been credited with saving millions of lives. Later, Herren was the co-chair of the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), endorsed by 59 countries.”
It would be nice to see a video about the growing suburbanization seen in Nigeria, Ghana, and increasingly in West Africa in general. You mentioned the Lekki Port, but not the growing suburbanization on the Lekki Peninsula and elsewhere in Lagos State. Given that stroads are popping up in the West African region, what can elites do NOW to avoid/reduce the car-centricism seen in North America?
Well the video is about Nigeria
@@George-zd7mu I'm guessing your friends call you Captain Obvious 🤦♂
Car centrism is already a feature of Abuja, the capital of Nigeria. Why? Because when Nigeria decided to shift its capital to a new, more central location, they asked an American consortium to design it. The new city was founded based around cars with no transit of any kind. As a result, Abuja is entirely car centric and choking on traffic. They did build a metro, but it was executed badly, wildly unprofitable, and shutdown during the pandemic to never reopen. Lagos isn't much better. It's only now that they have put in a metro line in Lagos.
Elites won't do shit because those same elites are the one who will live in those America style car centric hellscape.
Ghana why bring in Ghana here.
You know you cannot stop your envy.
Concerning birth rates, if city migration continues, birth rates will decline as technology increases which leads to a lower mortality rate. When there's a lower mortality rate people have less children so I think that's something to keep in mind for the growth of cities in Africa like Lagos
That's the pattern we've seen *when coupled with education*. Schools are a little easier to provide than sewers and electricity, but if the country is already struggling, what it can provide may not keep pace with what it needs to provide.
Highly doubt the infrastructure can maintain such a high population.
Certainly in the short-term, but it's difficult to imagine that after 100+ years the infrastructure would be in the same state it is now. Progress is by no means linear, but life is definitely getting better.
We’ll have to wait till 2121 I guess
@@ineedaname4450most African infrastructure is already near 100 years old. It’s been 60 years since colonialism and the same infrastructure built by white people is still in use, maintained by Chinese companies who now own much of Africa. Look at the current infrastructure in China if you want to see the future
The metropolitan region of Lagos currently has a population of 16 million people with an infrastructure that is much more precarious than an Medium-sized American city.
Has that ever been a problem for africa
Africa has so much potential. My hope is that it can avoid developmental problems created in other parts of the world and that they have robust internally developed institutions and governments that the population deserves.
It's been a century that any development in Africa, whether economic, institutional, cultural or other, has been devoured by demographics.
@@R_V_ What is specifically meant by “devoured by demographics”?
Unfortunately, that's not going to happen. There are several FAQs pages that you can read about on my website as to why this is the case. Each FAQs page covers a different topic.
@@Zero_Contradictions The reality is that Africa already has developmental problems.
It is one thing to see the realities of the arduous tasks ahead, but saying something will not happen is self defeating. It is better to fail at attaining the highest goal, than to settle for mediocrity.
My apologies for sounding like an inspirational poster.😀
Africa is the future
I would love a video on slum upgrading. Also, inculde US slums of the 1900-1950s and where Italians and Irish moved when the slums were cleared.
The estimation for the population of Nigeria, and thus Lagos, has been already changed. Interesting video still.
Yep, birthrates in urban environments plummet once the city gets large enough, and without the same amount of immigration from the countryside replacing that growth, you get a stabilized plateau at some point
What is the new estimate ?
I don't believe this projection, as a teacher in Lagos, many of my students over the years want one kid or no kid in future. Unless the 100 million will be migrants from outside Nigeria 🇳🇬
Lagos seems a very challenging but interesting place. Would you recommend a food fine like myself to visit it?
You can but do your research
@@whatever1661 100% sir
I will be glad to be your tour guide sir.
If you like to feel the humidity come around April to November. If you want to feel harmattan wind come around December to February. You can visit other states too if you want.
@@whatever1661 it also offers good food. I will list them for you later
@@whatever1661You would always wanna come back
How do you make this entire video without finding out how to correctly say the cities name...
He sat in a chair in the US and did an entire video about lagos. I'm sure the dude is even scared to go anywhere near lagos.
I willingly watch a video about Lagos when it’s not mispronounced..
I love your videos! but I wish you would ask a resident or regional expert how to pronounce city names. It’s giving VANcouver.
The stench in that city is horrendous.
So there are a couple of things that need to be mentioned. Firstly, population estimates are continually being revised _downwards_. Because fertility rates frequently experience sudden collapses rather than steady declines. Nigeria is an oddball in Africa in that it has a major urban culture and incredibly sophisticated elites, but still has very high fertility. In much of Africa, fertility rates are now very similar to European countries and population growth has slowed dramatically in a fairly short time. It seems very likely that the same will happen in Nigeria as smaller families become a route to prosperity rather than large families being insurance against rural economic insecurity.
Secondly, it's important to mention _why_ Lagos is the only major population centre comparatively. Nigeria like many colonies was the victim of a completely extractive form of colonialism that built all infrastructure so that the British occupiers could funnel labour and raw materials to a port so that it could then be moved around Britain's empire. The building of new ports and population centres has been delayed by the chaos that surrounded the declining terms of trade for rural countries in the '70s along with the propping up by major world powers of dictators to continue serving as proxy-colonial administrators.
Essentially, Nigeria's difficult struggle for democracy will mean that its trajectory will change - not just in slowing population growth, but also in prioritisation of resource use. We see this with neighbouring Ghana - Africa's first independent nation - which has begun to greatly increase its standard of living thanks to decades of stable democracy.
I don’t wanna be that guy but we Nigerians pronounce it as Lay-gos. Overall a very good video and it’s a shame my first comment is this one.
I don't think it's asking too much to get the actual name of the subject city correct. I paused the video right away when I heard it said that way. It shows a lack of connection to the place, and mildly puts me off.
I am more tolerant of "lower down" mistakes, say for example one of the neighborhoods in Lagos is mispronounced, ok, but the name of the actual city? C'mon, you gotta get that right.
Please, be that guy! I cringe every time I watch _Captain America: Civil War_ because they spent the entire movie mispronouncing the city's name there too! 😑
Don’t be afraid to be that guy
Well Nigerians pronounce it wrong then because in Portuguese it would be pronounced LAH-gos which means lakes.
nobody cares
Nigerian here and I love how accurate this video is, you're right about urban populations sending money to rural populations even in my early 20s I have some younger cousins living in smaller towns I buy lunch every now and then. I also love how you showed the duality of Lagos, a place where the richest and poorest exist, cities like Abuja would have overtaken Lagos but it was intentionally overpriced from the get go to discourage migration too, but Lagos' real issue is a political one it does not have that clear, concise and intentional government it needs in the 21 century it's still run by "backwards" thinking oligarchs, most people wouldn't live in Lagos if they had a choice too. And one last thing it's pronounced "LAY-gos", nice video I really enjoyed it! ❤️🇳🇬
It's not his first video involving Lagos, he's been corrected on the pronunciation. For whatever reason it seems he doesn't care.
@@eddie9559 he's american and i am not even surprised lol
I do have to wonder if there were any city projections from 1923 about what they thought the largest city in 2000 would be. And how wildly wrong many guesses no doubt were.
(I do expect Lagos and other African cities to become global urban centres in the future, but some specifics to the projections raise eyebrows.)
I know that in the 80s, there were projections that Mexico City would become the biggest city in the world and just keep growing and growing too, under a similar claim that the city was very dominant in a country with a high population growth rate.
They were close but not close enough
The Netherlands proofs that rural areas CAN produce enormous amounts of wealths. Dutch farmers are the most productive in the world, and most of them are millionaires (mostly on paper). (4 of 10 Dutch farmers are millionaires)
There are 50,000 farming business in the Netherlands with around 200,000 Farmers (if you count anyone working there) who produce over 10 percent of GDP. (More than 100 Billion euros a year). But this is mostly done by automation and technology, allowing farmers to be very productive.
Cities are a hell to live.
Lagos is growing fast. For Lagos to get to 100m residents by year 2120, It would likely become more contiguous than it is as it will like fuse with Cotonu in Benin Republic and may also sprawl beyond Sagamu in Ogun State and perhaps spread as far as Ibadan which is another really big Nigerian city especially by landmass of the built up area.
However, aggressive and decisive densification of present day Lagos should make the city grow more efficiently without sprawling the way it does currently. This would entail developing lots of mass housing tower blocks like we presently see in Sao Paulo and Chongqing and other high density mega cities.
But some other cities around Nigeria are also growing rapidly. They are just not talked about to much.
Besides Abuja, which in my opinion is the fastest growing city in Nigeria.
Other fast growing large cities include Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano, Kaduna, Benin city.
Then you have other mid sized cities that are also growing into surrounding villages which now constitute slums.
Sounds like a nightmare. I'm glad I live in a small city, near a large city.
id actually really like to see a video on slum upgrading, its such a difficult thing to manage in a way that isnt just horrible
The difference between Tokyo, Shanghai and Delhi, Lagos, Kinshasa is that Tokyo and Shanghai are actual functioning cities while Delhi, Lagos and Kinshasa are biggest slums (it’ll made worse with rapid population growth without any means to accommodate them).
Biggest slum how?
@@tundebakare6887Maybe not enough welfare services/resources to accommodate new arrivals, lack of sewage systems, increasing crime, pollution, no middle class (wealth inequality). Plus, a big informal economy that has some jobs not being stable enough, and sometimes not enough jobs to go around.
Kigali in Rwanda (although not that crazy “over 10 million population” large city) is far better city that should represent the Black sub-Saharan African (excluding North Africa) identity and potential progress.
@@generous_coconut is Kigali 10 million
@@generous_coconut all this youve mentioned are peculiar to America and Europe too not only in Asia and Africa. Infact there are more gunshot in New York than any place in the world so base on your write-up you can deduce that network is a slum as well
@@tundebakare6887 I don’t know I could say the same thing about some European cities having a chronic gun problem, but these ghetto European cities do exist. I agree. Parts of Paris, embarrassingly, is run down, dirty and dangerous.
For America, it’s uniquely an American problem with gun violence (especially in Chicago, Baltimore and Oakland). Detroit itself is a ghetto, run down city. America is not a developed country. It’s a developing country (sometimes even considered a third world country).
I think it’s strange that shenzhen was left off the pearl river delta map considering it’s the largest city in the region by far and more economically significant than any of the cities that were mentioned.
it's so weird to see Shenzhen always being left out whenever people talk about the Pearl River Delta or just the big cities in China... even the map including Macau was weird because even though it has a reputation that's literally the smallest city in the region
I think Westeners are somehow unaware of Shenzhen's existence as a major financial and economical hub that is almost on par to Hong Kong... but it's also probably because the city's prominence is rather new as compared to HK or Guangzhou
It’s because everyone generalizes the area into “Hong Kong” not because people don’t realize it exists. The only people that say that are the Shenzhen folks suffering from “look at us!!” syndrome, of which there are a ton of. We get it. You’re insecure. Moving on.
@@BlownMacTruck It's precisely because everyone calls that area as just Hong Kong that people don't actually know Shenzhen exists. It's similar to how I, a Singaporean, wasn't aware San Jose, California existed because of San Francisco even though SJ has a higher population.
Shenzhen has actually risen in prominence though, and I think it's different as for the case of like SJ/SF because there is like a proper "international" border between the two, but it's also *kind of* the same country, so that probably builds up a lot of the confusion. After all the metropolitan area there is called the Pearl River Delta and not like, Hong Kong metropolitan area, for a reason, probably because there isn't exactly one city that is the most prominent (even when we include Guangzhou)
Thank you for the video. Just a small comment, at 6:16 the shot is unfortunately not Lagos, but Accra in Ghana (Ghana taxis with yellow parts + it's written on right sign "Oxford street, Osu, Accra").
Just because a city has a lot of people living in it, doesn't necessarily mean the city will be "Influential" or "Powerful." Lagos having 100 million people, 50%-90% of whom are living in relative poverty, would still have nowhere near the economic or cultural influence of far richer, yet smaller cities in other countries.
I went to work in Lagos. I have never found this level of energy anywhere else. People are always moving for something
100 million people in 1 city is absolutely crazy. That's probably unsustainable because it requires perfectly planned infrastructure 🤔🤔
0:48 That downtown seems strangely American looking to me. It looks like something you'd see in Florida.
That is Kampala in Uganda
@@patrickayooladokun Are you from Uganda?
I've been to Lagos last year, it's so crowded. There's more people in that megacity than my home state of Ohio.
does it offer good food?
@@whatever1661 there's plenty of options for dining in Lagos. You could have food from street vendors to restaurants, you name it.
Ok we need to see the slum upgrading video! Sounds very interesting and it’s def a question a lot of people ask about
Lots of caveats here. Is the assumption the birth rate will remain 5.1 for the next 76 years? Or are we assuming that it tapers off to
Thanks for another great video !
I'd be interested in another video that expores the problems that come with such huge cities. 100 million is around 10 x times the size of cities that used to be considered large cities.
Do these megacities need new approaches to city planning and how utilities, transport and even city administration are provided? I'm thinking also of other videos I've seen of how 'down town' can get to be so expensive that the people needed to enable a city to function simply can't afford to live there - or even live in commuting distance any more.
I remember back in the 1980s, Mexico City was "destined" to become the largest city the world had every seen, probably by about now. that did not happen. not even close.
Yes but that also assumes birth rates remain the same through 2100. Nigeria is getting closer to stabilizing and the increased urbanization of Lagos and Nigeria as a whole will undoubtedly curb birth rates
What makes that fact really unlikely is that Lagos, and Nigeria as a whole is situated in one of the places that will be hit the hardest by global warming, to the point where it will be very unlikely that the climatic conditions could support humans, and especially not human settlements this dense and urbanised in 100 years.
that is how they said coronavirus will afffect africa the most. every projection from west is aways negative, till reality kicks in
That is exactly what they said about them during the corona virus, if the projection is coming from the west expect all the negative things until reality kicks in and it affect the west the most.
Why you keep spreading this same lie?
Lots of Lagosians are also leaving Lagos I think as most of my cousins have left Lagos.
The problem is also Nigeria will be stripped of natural resources if population growth continues as it is
Funfact: Lagos is the largest urbanized city in Nigeria but the smallest by landmass
As the largerst city in Nigeria by landmass Borno is 15 times the size of Lagos
Finally, a video about African cities. Please make videos about the planning problems of poor countries.
1st, a lot of people in one place doesn't make the place so influencial, so I'm affraid Dar es Salaam even in 2100 won't be nowhere near the league of NY, London, Tokyo or Bejing. 2nd - most of the population projections are based on the current fertility rates, the thing is that poor countries catch up with the more developed ones very quickly given enough peace time, that also includes children per woman, in other words if Africa keeps developing, the fertility rates will go down to ~2 quicker than we think. Also India has more people than China now. One last thing, you can only fit certain amount of people in a square km (or a mile, whatever), after that you have to expand city borders. And you might get a city like Chongqing which is bigger than Czech Republic by area and has 32 million people. There are also Netherlands with population density higher than said Chongqing, some may argue that the whole country is a big one city. So with 100 mln would it still be a city?
Don't Chongqing's city boundaries contain a lot of rural areas?
not sure why cities like Shenzhen and Dongguan are left out at 0:56 when they're definitely part of the pearl river delta region. the entire built up area you can see in the satellite photo is part of the region actually
That is because it not based on facts. This nonsense is being used to drown some economies around the world. It is a shame what some humans are capable of just to save his own.
I appreciate you and thank you for making content.
Never knew any of this thank you
I think Kinshasa might have just passed Lagos as the largest city in africa actually (tbf kinshasa, lagos and cairo are all fairly equivalent population wise). It is also always present in those largest city predictions for the end of the century
As a Brazilian I think Nigeria will be a huge leading power and I hope Brazil and Nigeria can work further to distribute the wealth and power a little bit better
As soon as oil money runs out nigeria will become a dump.
Inner troubles and climate change will be the last nails on the coffin for this poorly managed country.
It will never become a stable leading regionnal country.
Do you feel Brasilia and sau paulo have similar issues?
climate change will destroy both of those countries as well as mine. the writing is on the wall... canada and russia will be okey but the droughts that are coming in this century will make sure that brasil will never be a developed country ... but dont feelbad yo are not alone most countries will perished.
@@aryanbakshi5806 wdym by similar issues?
@@EdrEnterprises you know being such a big country yet wealth is mainly in these two cities
It's lay-gos, like Legos, not lagos; it's not Spanish.
True, it's not Spanish, it's Portuguese, which still means it's lah-goes
@@buurmeisje LOL, NO, it's Niglish, not Portuguese. Lagos, Portugal is a different place.
@@weksauce Lagos was named by the Portuguese after the town in south Portugal called Lagos
@@buurmeisje Yes, but it's not the portuguese town of Lagos. It's the Nigerian city of Legos. They don't even speak Portugues. They speak English.
@@weksauce So?
THE NAME OF THE CITY MAN. Interesting video otherwise tho
A new UN forecast for Nigeria’s population is 350 million people by 2100. This came down from over 700 million projections a decade ago. Nigeria birthrate is dropping faster than predicted.
350 million kkkkk look at ur fertility data
@@italomatheus8615our fertility rate have gone down from 5.7 to 4.6 in 5 years.
Yes, it is pronounced "Laygoss". I was there in 1987, so I winced every time you mispronounced it. We visited several African cities back then, including Nairobi, Kenya, and Accra, Ghana. The people in Lagos seemed the most desperate and anxious of the places we visited.
These trends always die down as a country developers nation wide, many expected Asia to reach a very higher population yet the only thing that's happening is the population is declining, and even for the countries like India which might on first glimpse seem exploding but under that their population is already on replacement level
So no, we won't ever see earth having 10-15 billion people, it's only gonna die down
I think this topic eventually opens a question what we can call a single city. If it takes 'ages' for a resident to travel from one part of the urban area to another, because they are so remote and lack efficient transportation, can it really be a de-facto single city?
1:07 failed to mention Shenzhen(17M) and attributed the growth to Macau (680k) is crazily amateur.
What a paradise it will be.
Slum*
be ready to be disappointed, don't underestimate the nigerian people intelligence, watch them get the politics right first of all and see wonders@@beasley1232
I also think the 100 Million people number is a little high. We are projecting the current life and labor trends of today's Lagos on a city 3 generations down the line. With work from home being the default for about half the population, many people priced out of Lagos will live in one of the other young cities. Mixed use development will make many more cities throughout the nation draw on a more mature population pyramid. Lastly much of Nigeria will adopt G8 fertility rates long before then.
It will certainly be a Tokyo, London, Hon Kong sized megalopolis. However it will be the youngest one about their size.
Apart from pearl river delta, Delhi NCR and Mumbai - Pune region night also approach 100 million.
Delhi NCR is combination of 3 Cities New Delhi, Gurgaon & Noida
Lay-gos abeg 😂😭
6:10 400 billion is crazy
The reason lagos is such a big and successful city is because it is close to the historical trade center of Benin, which dominated maritime trade for most of west-african history. Lagos is located next to the greater urban area of benin, in a place where the terrain is much more suited for large-scale industrial complexes, in an area otherwise dominated by a coastal landscape of historically hard-to-develop terrain, such as jungles, rainforests and floodplains.
This is how the city has been able to outgrow the historical city of benin, which was comparable to major european cities in the 16th century.
How many tiles do they have around them that can be used for agriculture? In my Civ save, I had 8 tiles for farming and 1 for cow, 1 for fish and 1 for pig. I wasn't able to go beyond 30 population.
I did get nuked by Montezuma and Ghandi though, so maybe that played a part.
nigeria is incredibly fertile
I'm very skeptical of the idea that Nigeria will be so massively populated in such a short amount of time. First of all, the country would have to undergo a drastic agricultural revolution/modernization to be able to sustain that many people at the levels that they're at now, except such a modernization would necessitate massive economic growth. Said economic growth would make its population desire a higher standard of living, ergo raising food consumption. Just sounds like a localized Malthusian catastrophe waiting to happen. Nigeria has a lot of arable land (~34m hectares) but compare it to India or China with 156.1m and 119.5m hectares respectively, and it just seems implausible for them to support such a population even approaching half of those giants. Countries with similar amounts of arable land include Ukraine and Pakistan, which in Ukraine's case makes plenty of food excess, and in Pakistan's case can support hundreds of millions of people similarly to where Nigeria is at today.
Except more realistically as food output becomes strained (or economic growth materializes), the fertility rate will drastically lower.
Projections for Nigeria has varied. I have seen as high as 750 million plus by 2100. But recently, the UN has also moved those projections back closer to 500 million. If it's 500 million, then Nigeria can definitely support it with the arable land cited. 500 million is about one-third of India and China, and Nigeria's 34 million hectares would be close to one-third of China's, and at a lower latitude. Another point of comparison is with Bangladesh. Nigeria's landmass is 6 times bigger, though the north is arid. 500 million people would be 3 times the current population of Bangladesh. There is no problem with food in any of Bangladesh, India and China. All of three of them actually grow more than enough food to feed their populations, and even export food.
"lay-gos"
Too much ignorance from commentators
It's pronounced LAY-GOS. I know someone from Lagos and can 100% confirm.
The first agglomeration and not "city" which will probably be 100 M Inhabitants will probably be the Pearl River Delta around Guangzhou and Shenzhen which built-up area is is now about 66 M inhabitants, without HK not conurbated yet. It's already much bigger than Tokyo. Second is Shanghai-Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou built-up area with 41,4 M inhabitants as of 2020 census.
In Nigeria itself, you forgot to talk about Kano 5,1M inhabitants, Ibadan 3,7M as of 2022 census and the 18 others Million people built-up areas in the country.
But the first problem to adress in Africa is the enormous fertility rates which are incompatible with bettering living standards. Unfortunately, most of african countries doesn't do anything about it, creating more problems especially in cities unable to house them and immigration totally out of control outside of Africa.
climate change will destroy the pearl delta area... maybe norhtern china will fair better but the south wont grow because of climate disasters
That settles it. I'm moving to Lagos.
sounds good to me too, living next to 100 million africans starving.
The same thing that happens in Lima, Peru but on a slightly different scale. Centralism on the part of the state, internal migration, concentration of all powers in one place, etc.
I think these projections are based on current growth rate. We need to understand that population growth slows down as the society advances, and people switch from working in industries to working in Service sector. Like a few years ago it was projected that Mumbai in India would have over 30million people by 2020, but that didn't end up happening instead the growth rate slowed, it still high, but not as high as it was in 2011, or Tokyo was projected to have around 50million by 2020, this projected before the Japanese Economic Slowdown. SO growth rate depends on a lot of stuff. And as society progress people would want less children, because cost of living would increase and its expensive to have as many children as people in Nigeria and rest of Africa have right now. And more cities might spring up, like Shenzhen, 3rd largest city in China, which is also in Pearl river delta. Or Like Lahore in Pakistan, which grew slowed the growth of Karachi.
As a Nigeria I'll tell you Lagos will not reach that projection, many Nigerians like me are beginning to dislike that place, secondly newer cities are absorbing those that supposed to migrate to Lagos. If tribalism and islamophobia (especially the later) gradually die down migration to the north will increase.
Tribalism isn't going anywhere its actually getting worse.
Kwara and Benue natives are already losing land to Muslim herdsmen from the North...its only a matter of time.
@@originaldelta I don't think it's out of the question for Nigeria to split along religious lines. Then again, Africa is by no means my strong suit in terms of knowledge, so take it with at least a few grains of salt.
I don’t think it’ll become the largest. Logistic growth curves rely on carrying capacity, and its infrastructure just can’t sustain nearly that many
Fertility rates have been going down for many many decades all over the world, Nigeria included. Keep that in mind!
Also, I think we'll have to fundamentally change how retirement system work in so many countries because eventually there won't be enough potential immigrants anymore...
The mumbai pune belt and delhi ncr are also gargantuan urban conglomerations
I would love to see a video from you about slums. They're fascinating things and have dynamics that don't seem visible from the surface.
About the Pearl Delta Region: how did Macau get mentioned (it is tiny with only 600,000 people and known only for its gambling) but not Shenzhen (15,000,000 people, where much of southern China's hi-tech is located) or Dongguan (9,000,000) or the other cities like Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai. The whole region also isn't 85 million, maybe closer to the 60 million range, since the whole province of Guangdong is about 125 million. Still a lot. Lagos region would be almost double the PRD if it gets to 100 million. At that, it'd be so big it wouldn't be one city but a cluster of cities with multiple independent cores and new cities/districts like the PRD.
Lagos is a massive metropolis in Africa which is home to a staggering number of Nigerians. However, appallingly inadequate infrastructure really poses an ominous threat to security and sanitation of Lagos.
The most populated cities in 2100 will be far inland and on Asia or Africa. The coasts and their older infrastructure just won't be able to keep up once the seas start coming up.
Raising sea level won't get that big actually
It will only touch some neighborhoods in the costs but the cities will be minimally affected
In 1965 there were population projections that by 2000 there would be one square foot of land for every person on Earth.
Thanks for lowkey lighting Kampala
You left Cairo in Egypt off as one of the biggest mega cities in Africa…I believe it’s number 2 to Lagos in terms of large populations
A video on uplifting slums would be great!
While Nigeria has the highest birthrates, global birthrates have been trending down and lower birthrates are correlated with industrialization.
I don't think the population will get that hight because people will simply not have babies.
Nigeria doesn't have the highest birth rate and is not even in the top 10 countries with the highest birth rates
Their northern neighbor Niger is the number 1 tho
The real reason why the population will never get that high is that overpopulation will cause mass die off. The Earth simply doesn't have enough resources to support that many people.
Interesting and awesome video! Africa is the future!
Great work. But it's not La-gos, Portugal.
It's Lay-gos, Nigeria
not just 3 major cities - Theres several other extremely large cities in that area, including shenzhen with a population of over 13million
Lagos is actually at the centre of the world. It is the closest metro city to the intersection point of the equator and the prime meridian
This pentagram is all over the Internet.
What pentagram?.
@@AYTM1200 Nebula. The sponsor.
Well if the Nigerians move from the rural area to the cities , their fertility rate would start going down as people that live in towns prefer to have less children.
Definitely would watch a video about slum upgrading!
There are only 5 million people in my entire country. We’re already dwarfed by a city like London. These numbers are almost meaningless to me
I think people may be dissuaded from moving specifically to Lagos in the future if the living conditions don’t improve quickly. I think people who would want to move to a city like Lagos may choose other nearby cities like Sagamu, Abeokuta, Ibadan, or Oyo instead. Maybe this region of southwest Nigeria could develop similarly to the Pearl River Delta (with HK, Guagzhou, Shenzhen, Macau, etc) or the Yangtze River Delta (with Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Ningbo, etc).
I would love to see a video on how to fix slums
Lagos is disgustingly polluted
You're from there?
correction on the pearl river delta part, u mentioned Hong Kong, Macau and Canton but u missed the largest of them: Shenzhen with a population of more than 20 million
Great video! One correction, its actually pronounced (Laygose)
It was a hell hole back in the 70s. I can only imagine what it must be like now.
It's pronounced "Lay-goss" 🤦🏿
In local language, perhaps. In some other languages, such Russian, it is Lаh-gos.
@@dmitripogosian5084 That's completely irrelevant as the speaker is speaking in English. It's like a Russian speaker saying "Moscow" instead of "Москва". Lagos is actually called "Èkó" in the local language of Yoruba.
Over 100 million would be about 3 current Tokyo metro regions
Hopefully efforts to spread the benefits that come with urbanisation work, though it's also gonna take some economic reform away from trying to model the US if it's going to actually have benefits and not set up for even worse wealth inequality that will be noticeable once quality of life improvements slow.
Horrific hell-hole urban megacity