Hi friend Gurubuster I really enjoy your videos. I always wonder if a real advantage can exist. Chance and a part of luck whatever happens is always present even after 2000 trades. What's more, it's possible to misinterpret a real advantage. You really have to be diligent about every price tick, every day, every hour and every second. Isn't trading a casino game after all? I don't know what you think of Adam Khoo's well-known video about trading like a casino. So Betfair is a casino? Sorry for the metaphor Thanks again for this series of videos on Monte Carlo analysis.
Absolutely, real edges exist. There are long-term successful professional traders and bettors who have proven edges. However: They’re far fewer than what social media would have you believe. People often confuse short-term success with having a real edge. Randomness and luck can give the illusion of skill, especially over small sample sizes. As for trading being like a casino, I’d say the comparison has merit for the majority. Platforms like Betfair do function as “casinos” in the sense that they offer a battleground where most participants are at a statistical disadvantage. But for those with a true advantage, it’s a calculated risk game where the odds are skewed in their favor - kind of like being the house in a casino.
Thanks again for your explanations. I would like to ask you if this is possible. What is the ROI of a professional trader, who makes a living from trading, over say a full year? I find that there is very little information on this subject over the very long term. Knowing that only 1% of traders make a living from this profession, it would be interesting to let the community here know how you feel about this. Of course, it all depends on how much the trader makes in a year. Beating the CLV (Closing Line Value) remains a good long-term challenge too.
It really depends on a ton of factors: the markets they operate in, the strategies they use, their risk tolerance, and, of course, the size of their capital. In general, with smaller capital, it’s often more profitable to focus on niche markets. These markets tend to be less efficient, meaning there’s more opportunity to find and exploit edges. And as a result, the ROI can be significantly higher. However, niche markets have lower liquidity, so they’re not very scalable as capital grows. On the other hand, larger capital typically requires operating in more liquid, competitive markets where the ROI might be smaller but the absolute profits are larger due to the volume of money at play.
Really enjoyed the video :)
Hi friend Gurubuster
I really enjoy your videos. I always wonder if a real advantage can exist. Chance and a part of luck whatever happens is always present even after 2000 trades. What's more, it's possible to misinterpret a real advantage. You really have to be diligent about every price tick, every day, every hour and every second. Isn't trading a casino game after all? I don't know what you think of Adam Khoo's well-known video about trading like a casino. So Betfair is a casino? Sorry for the metaphor
Thanks again for this series of videos on Monte Carlo analysis.
Absolutely, real edges exist. There are long-term successful professional traders and bettors who have proven edges. However: They’re far fewer than what social media would have you believe.
People often confuse short-term success with having a real edge. Randomness and luck can give the illusion of skill, especially over small sample sizes.
As for trading being like a casino, I’d say the comparison has merit for the majority. Platforms like Betfair do function as “casinos” in the sense that they offer a battleground where most participants are at a statistical disadvantage. But for those with a true advantage, it’s a calculated risk game where the odds are skewed in their favor - kind of like being the house in a casino.
Thanks again for your explanations. I would like to ask you if this is possible. What is the ROI of a professional trader, who makes a living from trading, over say a full year? I find that there is very little information on this subject over the very long term. Knowing that only 1% of traders make a living from this profession, it would be interesting to let the community here know how you feel about this.
Of course, it all depends on how much the trader makes in a year.
Beating the CLV (Closing Line Value) remains a good long-term challenge too.
It really depends on a ton of factors: the markets they operate in, the strategies they use, their risk tolerance, and, of course, the size of their capital.
In general, with smaller capital, it’s often more profitable to focus on niche markets. These markets tend to be less efficient, meaning there’s more opportunity to find and exploit edges. And as a result, the ROI can be significantly higher. However, niche markets have lower liquidity, so they’re not very scalable as capital grows.
On the other hand, larger capital typically requires operating in more liquid, competitive markets where the ROI might be smaller but the absolute profits are larger due to the volume of money at play.