Warning: S&P 500 Could Hit 6500 Sooner Than You Think

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ม.ค. 2025

ความคิดเห็น • 189

  • @zenunderground
    @zenunderground 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    Stretched valuations, the absence of the Santa rally. I think we are going up, down and all-around in a much more volatile market that may get to 6800, but it's gonna take the long way with bull and bear traps everywhere. #2

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Market feels way more volatile than the VIX would imply! D

  • @JustPhil-yw6bt
    @JustPhil-yw6bt 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    #4
    I think it's significant that S&P didn't close 6000 or over right before a 3 day weekend. Sold down last 2 hours of trading.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Turned right back higher into 6100 last week! D

  • @txelmore
    @txelmore 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    Correction please!

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Unfortunately, the market does not take requests :) D

  • @prolific1518
    @prolific1518 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +9

    Bro was just saying it's over 😂

    • @ArtemisSmith
      @ArtemisSmith 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      lmao

    • @86753091974
      @86753091974 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      That's why i clicked here haha

    • @EquityCall
      @EquityCall 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Broken clock

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Watch the video. It's laying out four different scenarios! D

  • @coryandersen3365
    @coryandersen3365 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I think we may have started wave 5 of this bigger wave 3. Wave 5 is equal to wave 1 at 6305 but really all we need is for wave 5 to get above the current high of 6100. After that we head down in the 4th scenario.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ooo thanks for dropping some Elliott Wave for all of us! D

  • @thejld
    @thejld 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    #2, then chop around in a range. This is a good market for covered calls and cash secured puts.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      #2 has been a pretty solid call thus far! D

  • @Claytrz
    @Claytrz 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I think the correction will extend until we hit a 5-10% drawdown
    NDX:$Gold is projecting more downside
    And SPGI also hasn't confirmed a new high, both tend to lead the index's imo

    • @Claytrz
      @Claytrz 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      The bottom should come within 1-2 weeks and i'm guessing we rally to ath's after before closing the year negative

    • @colsonskur6714
      @colsonskur6714 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Really good commentary right here - I agree

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Stocks vs. gold diverging BIG TIME from stocks D

  • @johns4577
    @johns4577 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Dave. I think its opt 1 or 2. going to push higher its early in the bull market. 10% correction coming later in the year as we tackle the fiscal cliff of debt limit, budget, tariffs.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So many reasons why the market could go lower from here... D

  • @Cos_Why_Not
    @Cos_Why_Not 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I would imagine something in between 1 and 2, starting a new trend instead of resuming on the old

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Spot on thus far! D

  • @KevinMartyn-is4es
    @KevinMartyn-is4es 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    After #2 completes #4 will happen.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      That's a check on #2 and waiting for a #4! D

  • @JhonyLipov
    @JhonyLipov 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Can we see all of this more properly with foot print chart, where goes the big orders? 😮
    I expect same movements as election day,and later big correction..Same as november to january..

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So far, market going full risk-on in 2025! D

  • @felicisimomalinao1981
    @felicisimomalinao1981 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Well explained.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thanks so much for watching! D

  • @rightangletriangle3188
    @rightangletriangle3188 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I don't have an expected target, but I have an action plan for each of the 4 scenarios you laid out. If it's case 1, I will sell and pare down holdings to build cash and put them in T-bills or MM. If it's case 2 or 3, maintain current holdings. If it's case 4, will add positions especially SPY or VOO.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      NOW you're seeing the benefits of this exercise. Great plans based on different outcomes. D

  • @lpc1231000
    @lpc1231000 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    From a purely technical perspective, the index still looks range‐bound between roughly 5750 support and 6100 overhead resistance. While anything can happen, the most common outcome after several tests of a well‐defined band is a retest of the upper boundary rather than an immediate breakout or a major collapse. Thus, Scenario #2 (the moderate push higher but remaining under the top of the recent range) is statistically the most likely near‐term path.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      6100 overhead resistance reached!! D

    • @lpc1231000
      @lpc1231000 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@DKellerCMT ..and positions reduced by half, accordingly.

  • @vince4647
    @vince4647 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Dave are ES Futures charts (shorter time frame) available on Stockcharts?

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      No futures on StockCharts unfortunately... D

  • @josevelasco2491
    @josevelasco2491 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I feel lost in the market after watching this channel

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Yikes! I recommend watching more. :) D

  • @jasoncarey7360
    @jasoncarey7360 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Great exercise. Strong stocks are already breaking out and lots of setups in the growthier sectors. Breadth trade is back on and earnings have been positive. I’m leaning option #1. Will be interesting as we get to March and certainly will be watching any further shots across the bow with big distribution days as we get overbought.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Strong stocks are definitely breaking out! D

  • @ccpbux
    @ccpbux 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    All very valid senarios. I personally could care less which one happens because I have some cash on the sidelines as of early December. A 100 year Dow/S&P and a 50+ year NASDAQ chart tells me all I need to know. Long term, the trend is up for the indices. As far as the 1-4 scenarios, I think we could see #3 in the next 6 weeks.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      We are on the same page! D

  • @tonylotito3845
    @tonylotito3845 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Higher lows taking #2 option 6100 -6200 value oriented leads market. I've been sitting on sideline, holding value, healthcare and financials but I'm going to put some cash to work in 401k only in value, small caps, mid caps.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      6100 reached- not sure if there's enough mo to get SPX 6200..... D

  • @shaunjames2221
    @shaunjames2221 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Pop than drop I think we will still see that 200 ma in Feb

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Definitely seeing that initial pop! D

  • @peterpayne2219
    @peterpayne2219 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks senpai!

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      どういたしまして D

  • @patrickingram2098
    @patrickingram2098 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    #2 until March

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Great call so far! D

  • @agentorange20
    @agentorange20 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    3
    CAPE ratio, only ‘’99 was higher.
    2 consecutive >20% years…
    10yr closing on 5%
    Risk premium, 4.25% vs maybe a bit more for stocks?
    Mega caps (looking at you AAPL) FW PE is nuts for low single revenue growth, flat.
    Breadth is quite weak.
    Fed can’t cut (much), have to wait for labor cracks.
    Would not be surprised if we get 10-20% correction.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Valuations often don't help in raging bull markets because it's all about euphoric sentiment and future higher valuations! D

  • @ericmodernel9205
    @ericmodernel9205 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    I watch Cramer on CNBC and I do the Opposite -- I always win $$$$ Buy buy buy means Sell

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      "Always" huh? :) D

  • @tomliu6358
    @tomliu6358 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Citi gave solid confidence to investors.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Not sure what indicator you're referring to but appreciate the suggestion! D

  • @Nobody-rkm
    @Nobody-rkm 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Scenario 1- fed has lot of room to cut, dream team taking over next week, less regulation, crypto boom fueled by trump, war in Gaza and Russia going to end soon. I think 6600 is very conservative target

    • @akirasuzuki8378
      @akirasuzuki8378 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Room to cut doesn't mean Fed will cut soon.

    • @colsonskur6714
      @colsonskur6714 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I think that 6600 in just the next couple of weeks or even months is very aggressive and not conservative at all. What would lead the market that high soon? Earnings growth? But isn't it already priced in? Multiple expansion? Multiples are already very extended

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      BULL! THERE'S A BULL IN THE HOUSE! :) D

  • @DS-jf2be
    @DS-jf2be 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    What if S&P 500 Could Hit 5500 Sooner Than You Think?

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Could definitely happen! D

  • @colsonskur6714
    @colsonskur6714 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Here are my thoughts: by the end of Feb/start of March I think we have these probabilities:
    50% of a #3 scenario where the market is lower then than now. The pull back has started and may continue to be in a 5700-6100 range for months
    35% chance of a #2 scenario where the market moves slightly higher.
    1% chance of a #1 scenario - maybe Trump ends the wars and starts doing things so great that the market goes to an over extended place
    14% chance this market continues the corrective phase that has already begun and moves into the 5500 - 5600 range. Largely supported by technicals, commonly weak February, new admin doing tarrifs and deportation that the market doesn't like, the fed not being a tailwind anymore. Earnings that are okay but not as good to support the multiples companies trade at

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thanks so much for sharing a detailed analysis of the scenarios!? I agree on #3 but so far it's been risk-on since I posted this vid D

  • @briangoodman5260
    @briangoodman5260 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    QQQ over 530 with BTC back over 108k next week will put the short term trends in sync with the longer term uptrends. Things this Friday looking better than last week

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Bitcoin still struggling to hold new ATH... D

  • @Dmoller566
    @Dmoller566 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Sideways. Somewhere between 2 and 3. All depends on whether the new administration is net destabilizing. I actually don’t think the Fed has a dog in the fight after 1/20 at noon ET.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So far pretty positive reaction to new admin D

    • @Dmoller566
      @Dmoller566 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @ So far….. let’s see what volatility and price action looks like when the economic impacts of policies become more apparent….Happy for the near term profits. Very cautious about long term outlook.

  • @jackcats7092
    @jackcats7092 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Depends on Trump day 1 actions. If tariffs come in strong. Headed to 4. Let’s aggressive tariffs 2. The rallies Weds and Friday have sharpe moves consistent with bear market bounces. Not saying we can’t go up but below 6000 we are still on Mini corrections

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Still not much clarity on tariffs..... D

  • @PaulBiasetti-y1z
    @PaulBiasetti-y1z 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Double Top then drop.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Kind of playing out but next week should confirm this one or not! D

  • @ing.alessandrogabrieli3547
    @ing.alessandrogabrieli3547 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    scenario #2 and 3, in a choppy alternate environment, until will be stabilized new geopolitical situation ( new President in office and end of War Ucraine and Israel/Gaza) . This will be until end of february.
    #1 from begining of March until end of April

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Plenty of upside so far post-inauguration! D

  • @geraldf.1222
    @geraldf.1222 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Market chugs higher to 6500 by May 1st.
    Earnings are great!

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Definitely chugging and earnings are impressing! D

  • @chrisL-9897
    @chrisL-9897 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Dave thank you for your smart and detailed analysis. Number 1 based on "Trump Effect: The First 100 days". Similar to what happened after the election. However, it will not be a straight line. Remember; enjoy the ride and expand your thinking.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Trump effect is being felt big time! D

  • @KKurtSSchultz
    @KKurtSSchultz 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    option #3; mildly bearish🐻. the market will chop through the first ninety days of the new administration (being jerked around by outlandish behavior by DC 🤨politics in general for the purpose of news cycle control)

    • @1Whipperin
      @1Whipperin 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Deep state is going into battle against Trump and his minions.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Initial move has definitely been higher but as they say in football, "there's a lot of game left." D

  • @RalphStocek
    @RalphStocek 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Recent activity on the chart looks like a bullish flag to me. A lot of tech stocks on a short term basis look like they are itching for another breakout. Therefore, I anticipate more uptrends. So option 1 or 2 is my choice and I will optimistically go for #1. Of course once we know more about what executive orders Trump signs on Day 1, things could change very quickly.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Bullish flag confirmed on QQQ- onward and ever upward! D

  • @sobianazir4177
    @sobianazir4177 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The market is flying like a kite ! Trending way about its 200 day MA. All I see is the retracement but nothing bearish seems to be happening. It is safe to say that we should expect the 1st scenario. A couple of days ago when S&P 500 pierced the 50 day MA I was expecting that it would hit the $5800 mark but since it bounced right back without touching that target I am confident that I am right about the 1st scenario.

    • @JhonyLipov
      @JhonyLipov 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Me too but this will be untill Trump take full control.After this later on of this year im not so positive..I expect same movements as election day,and later big correction..😮 Same as november to january

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Flying like a kite on fire, on steroids, tied to a rocket ship! 🚀 D

    • @sobianazir4177
      @sobianazir4177 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @DKellerCMT 🤣🤣🤣

  • @stevenmarquis5298
    @stevenmarquis5298 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If a flag, indeed, flys at half staff I believe that would point to 6400

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Yep- and bull flag confirmed by QQQ! D

  • @dmitrychuveev6610
    @dmitrychuveev6610 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The great analysis. It's interesting how many trillions of dollars will be needed for each scenario in terms of in/out. If I am not wrong it is about $5 trillion is needed for investors to move SPY 10% higher right now. I am thinking from another point of view, that last year stock market received about $85 trillion. Some of that money should be moved out to cover different expenses and minimum should be around $10 trillion. I vote for 3 and 4

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Bullish so far... Thanks for sharing all of these points! D

  • @Dan-sw1nb
    @Dan-sw1nb 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    He seems to bias toward extremes, lower or higher. Why not talk about bouncing around in a range as a possibility? Because it's possible.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Rangebound is an honest possibility for sure! D

  • @mikehuizenga9854
    @mikehuizenga9854 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    #2. First year of new presidency has an 85% of having positive returns and historically the best year of performance of a 4-year term (on average). However, a weekly log-chart channel from 2009 to present shows the upper channel reaching 6,350 at best by Monday March 3. The upper channel line has been a hard barrier of resistance for 15 years except for the post-covid bubble in 2021. I expect it will continue to be a hard barrier of price resistance. Market will have a good 6 weeks, but will be contained by the channel.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      6350 is getting closer by the week! D

  • @Bearnobull
    @Bearnobull 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    While no one knows, I am thinking we will get a long sideways market for most of this year until the market can figure out what it wants. So scenario 2 and 3 for a back and forth. Once we get through this year and things become clearer then the market will make its big move. If we get a sideways market, as a swing trader, I will be happy IF I can get it right. Always a big IF!!!!! Thanks Dave for the opportunity to comment.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Lots of money to be made in choppy sideways markets! D

  • @laurenkattuah
    @laurenkattuah 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    96 year channel shows we have been topping at this top of this channel now for a while, so many negative divergences, Mag 7 valuations have been blown up too high. Narrow leadership for too long. A recession must be priced in and is long overdue.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      We'll see what happens with Mag7 earnings this week! D

  • @mimbaxter
    @mimbaxter 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    70% option 1. The gap at the election result has been filled and the uptrend continues. 20% option 2 if the treasury rates go up and become more attractive. 10% option 4, inflation comes back. Nil for option 3 as that feeling like a Meh market to me, and at the moment this does not feel like a Meh world.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Boy for now the markets are spot on following this thesis! D

  • @tknudcarter
    @tknudcarter 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    #2 until March and then bullish until mid year.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So far not a bad call! D

  • @bobm8135
    @bobm8135 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    The only thing that scares me is that black swan event nobody sees coming.

    • @coppcar
      @coppcar 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Exactly. Many things can go many wrong ways.

    • @prolific1518
      @prolific1518 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      You don't even see a black swan event. It's called a black swan for a reason. US govt has made recessions illegal. Number will only go up.

    • @chipshiner2371
      @chipshiner2371 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Trump's inauguration with news events that will come back to back to back will provide catalysts (news events) like we have not seen. To the upside or downside

    • @Tonehawkdawg
      @Tonehawkdawg 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Rising rates = sovereign debt crises. Inflation from natural disasters in the US could cause inflation to shoot up again - raising rates. That's the most obvious black swan to me right now. Trump deporting vegetable and fruit pickers and adding tariffs will jack up inflation soon.

    • @bobm8135
      @bobm8135 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@AuralDeviation😂😂

  • @richarddolby7375
    @richarddolby7375 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Option 1 To the moon!

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Feel like we have passed the moon en route to something else now! D

  • @waltov
    @waltov 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Is it really that hard to see? Nobody talks about it. Trump's tariff are the main obstacles driving the market behavior. Forget free markets under republican government

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Tariffs could be quite inflationary- still waiting for specifics! D

  • @laurenkattuah
    @laurenkattuah 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    #4

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      BEAR! THERE'S A BEAR IN THE HOUSE! 🐻 D

  • @jeff3257
    @jeff3257 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I view the last week as news driven euphoria with anticipation of a Trump bump. Given that most people are seeing the market go up after Trump and the FACT the market always seeks do the opposite, I expect a "sell the news's event after Trump inauguration and something between 3 and 4 to happen.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Euphoric is one way I'd describe this market! D

  • @jzgtr100
    @jzgtr100 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Hoping we go sideways. I’ve legged into many iron condors. Sadly, while we’ve been going down, I added more on the call side, so I’m net short the market. Today was a horrible day for me. Now that we have a fairly organized descending channel, I’m afraid it’s looking bullish. Hoping to get a couple of down days, so I can get closer to neutral. A few comments are saying bullish in the near term and bearish by March. They could be correct. Right now, I see #2, mildly bullish for 6 weeks.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      "Hope is not a good investment strategy." :) D

    • @jzgtr100
      @jzgtr100 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@DKellerCMT true. Got a little mean reversion on Friday. I need a couple more days like that.

  • @StevenSilva1
    @StevenSilva1 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Option 2

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Decent call thus far! D

  • @Tonehawkdawg
    @Tonehawkdawg 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I think it will hit 8000 in a few more months, that's the time to sell. Job losses keep mounting...

    • @EquityCall
      @EquityCall 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I think 10,000

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      SPX 8000? BULL! THERE'S A BULL IN THE HOUSE! 🐂 D

  • @Noneofyourdambusssiness
    @Noneofyourdambusssiness 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Choice # 2- I think we're going slightly sideways for a bit. Uncertainty about incoming admin and how much chaos they will bring in comparison to the 1st go around. Markets don't like shit shows and uncertainty. Tariffs and higher inflationary policy may throw everything down the crapper. We will see I reckon....in the end, stay calm, stay invested, think of ways to make positive choices even in the downturn.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Still not seeing specifics on tariffs which could be major league inflationary. D

  • @AB-dn2bk
    @AB-dn2bk 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    History shows returns of -2 to 3% over the next tens years at these valuations. But the bull flag and political hype may push it higher so probably 1-2 near term and then 4 as empirical data plays out. Earnings are hindsight - the strong dollar will impact future earnings of mega cap techs. Probably in 4100 range somewhere in 2026.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Not a fan of using valuations for this but I so appreciate you sharing these! Earnings are actually about future earnings growth and less about what happened before. D

  • @PaulBiasetti-y1z
    @PaulBiasetti-y1z 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Trump's policies will hurt the economy in the short/medium term.
    - Deportations= less migrant spending
    - DOGE= less government employees spending
    I think the market will pop during earning and then drop.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Pop during earnings is definitely happening! D

  • @RaoufJundi
    @RaoufJundi 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    3. Mildly bearish, overvaluations and Trumponomics outweighing continued strong earnings in the short term

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      We're on the same page! D

  • @opossumwallst
    @opossumwallst 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    #4.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Still some time for this to evolve, but feeling less likely after week's like last week! D

    • @opossumwallst
      @opossumwallst 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @ Looks like it evolved down almost 3% overnight. 😳

  • @세나-b8s
    @세나-b8s 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If selling begins after Trump's inauguration, I think scenario 4 is more likely.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Definitely not seeing that yet! D

  • @janverduyn2250
    @janverduyn2250 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    yes to much money printed , no crash coming anymore

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      "No" and "Never" are four-letter words for investors :) D

  • @danlevanon
    @danlevanon 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    #1 6100+450=6550

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Not a bad call so far! D

  • @homerixy32
    @homerixy32 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Dave, serious question, weren't you just posting a hindenburg omen warning? How do you reconcile that? Go Bucks!

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Yes- that indicator fired a major sell signal in December. Market has since turned higher!
      Have covered in detail on my daily market recap show. Go Bucks! D

    • @homerixy32
      @homerixy32 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @DKellerCMT thanks. I'll try to catch up

  • @scottmoering9810
    @scottmoering9810 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    This guy was talking head and shoulders just a few days ago now he's pumping the market..lol

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Definitely not trying to pump the market! Please watch the video :) D

  • @AlexOptionsSeller
    @AlexOptionsSeller 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Scenario 1.5

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So far this pretty much spot on! D

  • @andressuarez2502
    @andressuarez2502 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Muchas Gracias, por el concepto técnico.

  • @GregRyanFitness
    @GregRyanFitness 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    These guys talk technicals one day and pipe dreams the next, all to get click bait views. Wishy washy delutes credibility

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Not sure who all you're grouping me with, but my goal is to help investors make better decisions! D

  • @tbremard
    @tbremard 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Breaking news: Trump will put you in jail if you do not buy 1 SPX everyday ! Ahah.
    My pronostic is Spx 7000

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      SPX 7000? BULL! THERE'S A RAGING BULL IN THE HOUSE! D

    • @tbremard
      @tbremard 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @DKellerCMT ahah!.... But after the correction of course, ahah

  • @larrybaugher6171
    @larrybaugher6171 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    #1 - Traders will be "drinking the Trump Kool-Aid" after the Inauguration and get "juiced/bulled-up" thinking about deregulation, blah, blah. New highs hit in next few weeks. Reality will come in February. Valentines Day may then be looking rough as reality sets in.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Koolaid is being sipped big time by investors... D

  • @johnwong8741
    @johnwong8741 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Scenario #1. lots of good setup. recent leader continue to show strength, making ATH

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      🚀 D

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So far this is playing out! D

    • @johnwong8741
      @johnwong8741 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@DKellerCMT🎉🎉🎉

  • @chatgpt-n8r
    @chatgpt-n8r 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    so many possibilities, market can go up, down or sideways

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      You are 100% correct on that assessment! D

  • @KennyStratton
    @KennyStratton 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    1. Trump. Trump. Trump.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      How much of that was already priced in?........ D

  • @chatgpt-n8r
    @chatgpt-n8r 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    why not 7000?

    • @colsonskur6714
      @colsonskur6714 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Hahaha

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      8000! 9000! TEN THOUSAND! BWA HA HA HA HA! D

  • @felixjoiamusic
    @felixjoiamusic 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Scenario 2 !!

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Not a bad call so far! 🎸 D

  • @tanleproe
    @tanleproe 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Scenario #4 because of the Fed meeting on 1/29 and job report on 2/7. GL.

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Post-earnings these will be key moments for sure D

  • @timkrouse345
    @timkrouse345 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    WATCH OUT!! There's a GIANT GREEN SPIDER behind you!!!

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      AAAAGGGGGHHHHH 🕷️ D

  • @jorgarb
    @jorgarb 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I think S&P 500 will hit 15000 by July 4, 2025 maybe in 5 months. SpaceX Starship will get to mars that fast!!! 😀🙃

    • @DKellerCMT
      @DKellerCMT  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      15K huh? While theoretically possible, I'm going to say "definitely not" on that call :) D