Utility & Acceptance of Hypotheses - Isaac Levi (1963)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
- Isaac Levi gives a 1963 lecture which was part of a series of 17 lectures given on the philosophy of science from Voice of America’s “Forum: The Arts & Sciences in Mid-Century America”. The series includes Willard Van Orman Quine, Ernest Nagel, Carl Hempel, Max Black, Hilary Putnam, Paul Feyerabend, Sidney Morgenbesser, Patrick Suppes, Nelson Goodman, and others.
00:00 Intro
1:12 Talk
#Philosophy #Epistemology #Science
Scientists as policy makers is very interesting idea.
I’ve long thought that someone with Asperger’s would make the most logical decisions. My greatest sadness was when Dominic Cummins was hounded out of the uk government, as he was just starting to bring mathematics into the process. He was hounded out exactly for the reasons he was desperately needed.
The combination of Boris as the Machiavellian and Cummins as the advisor was perfect, that’s why the civil service hounded them out as their scams and incompetence were under threat. Now we are buggered.
Brilliant--made me glad I have notifications on🤭. How about a little Hannah Arendt while we're on the verge of war #3?
🌹☕️
I am sorry to say that this talk is exactly where government HAS gone wrong. The notion that an economist (or any scientist) can forecast economic outcomes and therefore improve economic policy is evidently false. Economists have repeatedly shown that they can forecast nothing. Look at the Bank of England (or the Economist magazine for that matter). Both are stuffed with economists. The scientific method is a process involving scientists (trained to apply that method) that can uncover what is true within defined constraints. Science can explain complex systems - it cannot forecast them. Scientists who claim otherwise are either charlatans, secret ideologues or not very bright.
As someone who studied economics and was a close follower of the profession for a good while, I do agree that economists are absolutely full of themselves.
I think you were conflating scientists and economists towards the end though.
Forecasting in certain contexts definitely does work, at least above random guesses, and certainly enough to mean that most of the time, you will know if you need an umbrella tomorrow or not.
It's the stability of the system, not the complexity, that creates unpredictability.