One major point you are missing for reasons to not redeem dust codes is because there is no benefit/reason to do so, unless you are going to imminently use them. If you redeem them you cannot transfer them to a friend. You also cannot claim each reward more than once. If you do NOT redeem them - then you can give them to friends, you can sell them, you can wait to see if more rewards are added in the future you are interested in. This is even more of a consideration if you are based outside of the US where the postage costs to receive the rewards are prohibitive and it is unclear if/when in the future you might be able to get the rewards dispatched locally at a much cheaper cost. For reference our local group of 4 people heavily collecting the game have opened over 100 boxes bewteen us but redeemed less than 30 dust codes.
It took me forever to redeem my dust for alpha/beta and I am still sitting on my AL dust. I have enough to get one or two things, and I am a slow decider.
Exactly this, there is no incentive to redeem dust if you have already redeemed enough to get all of the currently available items. Once a dust code is redeemed it transforms from a commodity to a non-transferable asset making it less valuable in some circumstances. That all said, we will likely see an uptick in redemptions in anticipation of the next wave of dust store goodies. Some of those goodies could be things like alpha boxes which had a very limited supply so having those codes pre-redeemed will allow some to jump on those limited items more quickly.
Haine, I think you are spot on with the number of "unopened" boxes. I threw away 6 boxes of Beta without redeeming the dust early on because I did not know about it.
The funny thing is, I've been involved with Sorcery since the KS, knew about dust codes and have redeemed thousands of dust, and I STILL almost threw out an AL box without redeeming the dust because it slipped my mind when cleaning up after opening boxes. It's super easy to forget and accidentally throw out dust.
Given they have the box topper, they should absolutely add a note in there about dust. Or even a bigger blurb on the bottom of the box. It's a great feature and they should be selling it better.
There is plenty of hoarding, but I can't believe for a second that 75% of beta is still sealed. Using another data point (cardboard guide's curio pull tally) we can see that 42 water castles have been reported (the most reported beta curio). If we assume all 18 beta curios have the same print run, and if we assume that a curio is pulled on average every 50 boxes, this means that 37.800 beta boxes have been opened. But this number surely under-estimates the true number of curios pulled as some go unnoticed by the customers and some go unreported. This oncsideration surely pushes the number of cracked beta boxes to at least 50k. So if we assume an 100k beta print run, this means that 50% of beta has been opened. This is a low estimate. My personal gut feeling is that at least 60% has been opened. However, I also believe that a significant percentage is being hoarded by investores and sealed box collectors. Right now my closet has a sealed Beta case and 7 more loose sealed boxes. If even a small collector like me has 2 cases worth od beta boxes stashed in a closet, this means that a healthy percentage is saved sealed for future speculation or simply to have product to open in the future.
I do believe there are around 50% of sealed product from my personal estimation from EV. I do think the majority of the sealed product comes from random players having few extras lying around as you do. I for myself have extras for draft matches.
I know at least 1 store that picked up the game post-kickstarter, wasn't even aware of Dust codes, and tossed the boxes. I am sure there are MANY stores and players both who are completely unaware of this program, because it was marketed just 1 time at release and anyone after that really wouldn't know about it unless an original player informs them.
Excellent presentation, Haine! The data aligns with the price differential between alpha and beta singles I've watching. Your videos are so valuable to getting a deeper understanding of the game. Thanks!
I would agree with your assumptions. I know someone that opened close to 200 boxes, he sells the singels and still has the dust codes stored to sell. He wanted to see the new rewards and costs before he sold them. I am sure this is also common with many others who open large amounts. Let's say you have 100 people in the world like that, everything adds up fast, plus all the boxes that got thrown out, never to be claimed. Thanks again for what you do.
Hey mate, Cheers for crunching the numbers and sharing your thoughts. I know that my sorcery playing mates both in Australia and in Europe are not redeeming their dust rewards due to the expensive shipping costs. The consensus with the players I know is that dust rewards are for Americans only and somewhat pointless for us. Looking forward to the next episode. Cheers again 👍
Great, thanks for your video Haine! Just yesterday, I had a discussion with a friend about Beta printruns. Do you have any idea, on what the numbers look like, differentiating between Beta first wave and the summer reprint? Maybe kind of like 60k/40K, or more like 80k/20k... Kind regards!
No idea but at the release of beta, which was before any "summer" reprints, my estimate was ~70k of beta. So I think 70k/30k would be my guess but this has no exact data backup.
I keep hearing a few people say the "game is growing". What does that even mean? I always thought half of what people are buying are sitting in closets until they can be flipped for 'big profits'. Even if that number is off by a massive 25%, I think a large majority of people are sitting on unopened boxes. You would need to have a grasp on the average of boxes per person to get a good reason for it but people being too lazy seems unlikely the cause for 75% not being used.
There are so many numbers you can give to explain how the game is growing in various aspects, I don't even understand what you don't get? The point of the video was to explain 25% is too little; it is not to say there are no sealed products, which I understand there is.
No, they printed just enough. This can be inferred from the #phil stone vs unopened box calculation, and also from the actual EV. The cards are properly being consumed.
@@wizardsden666 Really? That surprises me. My thought is it would lower the value of the singles and the EV of boxes, I am probably full of gaps in that case of my estimates. I would have thought as well that the difference to players numbers and the print run numbers would mean that not enough is being opened/consumed and kept sealed Always happy to know more depth re this though
One major point you are missing for reasons to not redeem dust codes is because there is no benefit/reason to do so, unless you are going to imminently use them. If you redeem them you cannot transfer them to a friend. You also cannot claim each reward more than once. If you do NOT redeem them - then you can give them to friends, you can sell them, you can wait to see if more rewards are added in the future you are interested in. This is even more of a consideration if you are based outside of the US where the postage costs to receive the rewards are prohibitive and it is unclear if/when in the future you might be able to get the rewards dispatched locally at a much cheaper cost. For reference our local group of 4 people heavily collecting the game have opened over 100 boxes bewteen us but redeemed less than 30 dust codes.
It took me forever to redeem my dust for alpha/beta and I am still sitting on my AL dust. I have enough to get one or two things, and I am a slow decider.
Exactly this, there is no incentive to redeem dust if you have already redeemed enough to get all of the currently available items. Once a dust code is redeemed it transforms from a commodity to a non-transferable asset making it less valuable in some circumstances.
That all said, we will likely see an uptick in redemptions in anticipation of the next wave of dust store goodies. Some of those goodies could be things like alpha boxes which had a very limited supply so having those codes pre-redeemed will allow some to jump on those limited items more quickly.
That is a good point indeed!
Thank you for this. I haven't redeemed my dust just in case there was some more to it.
Haine, I think you are spot on with the number of "unopened" boxes. I threw away 6 boxes of Beta without redeeming the dust early on because I did not know about it.
Yeah, I think it wasn't notified enough to the public.
I almost did the same thing. But the AL box was so fancy I looked at it one last time before it went into the trash and I noticed it lol
The funny thing is, I've been involved with Sorcery since the KS, knew about dust codes and have redeemed thousands of dust, and I STILL almost threw out an AL box without redeeming the dust because it slipped my mind when cleaning up after opening boxes.
It's super easy to forget and accidentally throw out dust.
Given they have the box topper, they should absolutely add a note in there about dust. Or even a bigger blurb on the bottom of the box. It's a great feature and they should be selling it better.
i threw away 20 boxes and went a few hours later to get all the codes xd
Thank you for the video!
We came to much the same conclusion in our presentation with regard to the amount of Dust codes redeemed.
Yeah I think everyone inherently knows why the redeemed dust points are so low!
Jet again a solid video full of information to us all. Your contribution is ever welcomed! Thank you.
You're welcome! Glad it helps!
I love estimates like this. Thanks Haine in always backing up discussions with objective evidence
Thanks! Numbers are required to make any claims!
There is plenty of hoarding, but I can't believe for a second that 75% of beta is still sealed. Using another data point (cardboard guide's curio pull tally) we can see that 42 water castles have been reported (the most reported beta curio). If we assume all 18 beta curios have the same print run, and if we assume that a curio is pulled on average every 50 boxes, this means that 37.800 beta boxes have been opened. But this number surely under-estimates the true number of curios pulled as some go unnoticed by the customers and some go unreported. This oncsideration surely pushes the number of cracked beta boxes to at least 50k. So if we assume an 100k beta print run, this means that 50% of beta has been opened. This is a low estimate. My personal gut feeling is that at least 60% has been opened. However, I also believe that a significant percentage is being hoarded by investores and sealed box collectors. Right now my closet has a sealed Beta case and 7 more loose sealed boxes. If even a small collector like me has 2 cases worth od beta boxes stashed in a closet, this means that a healthy percentage is saved sealed for future speculation or simply to have product to open in the future.
I do believe there are around 50% of sealed product from my personal estimation from EV. I do think the majority of the sealed product comes from random players having few extras lying around as you do. I for myself have extras for draft matches.
Been itching for this episode. Thanks Haine.
I knew you were waiting lol
I know at least 1 store that picked up the game post-kickstarter, wasn't even aware of Dust codes, and tossed the boxes. I am sure there are MANY stores and players both who are completely unaware of this program, because it was marketed just 1 time at release and anyone after that really wouldn't know about it unless an original player informs them.
Excellent presentation, Haine! The data aligns with the price differential between alpha and beta singles I've watching. Your videos are so valuable to getting a deeper understanding of the game. Thanks!
That indeed is another clue!
Haine! Another great video…agree on all points.
Haine The Brain!! Coming through again. Appreciate you dude. You are indeed a wizard!
Glad I am the wizard! Too bad not a cat though lol
I would agree with your assumptions. I know someone that opened close to 200 boxes, he sells the singels and still has the dust codes stored to sell. He wanted to see the new rewards and costs before he sold them. I am sure this is also common with many others who open large amounts. Let's say you have 100 people in the world like that, everything adds up fast, plus all the boxes that got thrown out, never to be claimed. Thanks again for what you do.
Yeah I’m sure those points exist too, thanks for watching!
Hey mate, Cheers for crunching the numbers and sharing your thoughts. I know that my sorcery playing mates both in Australia and in Europe are not redeeming their dust rewards due to the expensive shipping costs. The consensus with the players I know is that dust rewards are for Americans only and somewhat pointless for us. Looking forward to the next episode. Cheers again 👍
I know of a store who was unaware of the dust codes and threw away 5 cases worth
Yeah, that happened in Japan too.
Great video!
Exciting stuff. Any news about the new AL and Atlas binders mentioned?
No, the binder information is coming in the coming weeks I suppose.
Great, thanks for your video Haine! Just yesterday, I had a discussion with a friend about Beta printruns. Do you have any idea, on what the numbers look like, differentiating between Beta first wave and the summer reprint? Maybe kind of like 60k/40K, or more like 80k/20k... Kind regards!
No idea but at the release of beta, which was before any "summer" reprints, my estimate was ~70k of beta. So I think 70k/30k would be my guess but this has no exact data backup.
@@wizardsden666 Thanks so much!! I appreciate your work. All the best to you + Family from Germany :-)
I keep hearing a few people say the "game is growing". What does that even mean? I always thought half of what people are buying are sitting in closets until they can be flipped for 'big profits'. Even if that number is off by a massive 25%, I think a large majority of people are sitting on unopened boxes. You would need to have a grasp on the average of boxes per person to get a good reason for it but people being too lazy seems unlikely the cause for 75% not being used.
There are so many numbers you can give to explain how the game is growing in various aspects, I don't even understand what you don't get? The point of the video was to explain 25% is too little; it is not to say there are no sealed products, which I understand there is.
Is there data on exactly how many foil uniques /non foil uniques were prints for beta and Arthurian legends?
Yes, you can deduce the numbers pretty easily from the other videos I made regarding inclusion rates.
What does 4.2 million "Access to Curiosa" mean? Sorry I feel like I should know this, but it's not coming to mind. Thanks!
site visits
It is access rates for the curiosa website
If this is accurate though which I think it will be. Does mean they have overprinted these sets
No, they printed just enough. This can be inferred from the #phil stone vs unopened box calculation, and also from the actual EV. The cards are properly being consumed.
@@wizardsden666 Really? That surprises me. My thought is it would lower the value of the singles and the EV of boxes, I am probably full of gaps in that case of my estimates.
I would have thought as well that the difference to players numbers and the print run numbers would mean that not enough is being opened/consumed and kept sealed
Always happy to know more depth re this though
@@silverwolf6866 go take your meds old man.
@@silverwolf6866 oh well, maybe you'll stop stomping your feet like a kid and act like the old bastard you are.
Not 75% not opened but 75% not redeemed. I expect a good 30% to be hoarded for resale in years and not redeemed.
I've opened 8 boxes but couldn't afford the item i wanted from the dust store so they just sit in my closet.
Yeah, that happens too.
100k of each seems like a lot.
At least for beta, it was the right amount as the EV didn't tank or skyrocket. Let's see what happens to AL.
I think 100k is minimum…just given the set size of AL, I would say more beta will be printed than AL
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