Are we running out of oil?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ก.ค. 2024
- People used to be really worried about peak oil - what happened? And does it matter if we run out?
#planeta #peakoil #renewableenergy
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00:00 Intro
00:45 Good news
01:57 Demand
03:04 Running out of oil (Supply)
03:55 What’s happening now?
05:40 Future predictions
06:23 Conclusion
What do you think about the end of oil? When do you think it will come, if ever?
The West will literally never give up oil unless & until the billionaire ruling class who calls all the shots is finally overthrown & our horrific capitalist system is abolished for good
The alternative of course is that we all just kind of collectively decide to do nothing while the U.S. empire relentlessly burns even more oil to fuel its military industrial complex in a desperate attempt to stave off its inevitable collapse, wreaking even more ecological destruction around the world than it already does & ultimately leaving the planet uninhabitable for generations to come
Fingers crossed we get our shit together 🤞😬
A fossil fuel future will drastically change our climate and environment. We need fossil fuels now in order to manufacture our renewable energy infrastructure but once sufficient renewable power sources are in place (hopefully, soon) we need to stop CO2 production.
No of course we will never run out of anything on our finite sphere. Especially human stupidity though.
I originally left a comment here a few hours ago & now it's mysteriously gone, but thankfully I saved it so I can post it here again-
The West will literally never give up oil unless & until the billionaire ruling class who calls all the shots is finally overthrown & our horrific capitalist system is abolished for good
The alternative of course is that we all just kind of collectively decide to do nothing while the U.S. empire relentlessly burns even more oil to fuel its military industrial complex in a desperate attempt to stave off its inevitable collapse, wreaking even more ecological destruction around the world than it already does & ultimately leaving the planet uninhabitable for generations to come Fingers crossed we get our shit together 🤞😬
You can grow plants to make oil.
idk if we're running out of oil, but we're sure as shit running out of planet
We are running out of oil but it's a moot point because the human race is now threatened with certain near term extinction as a result of building a world that runs on oil.
More like we are running out of stable ecosystem. We already destroyed so much.
And overpopulation isn't that much of a problem. All developed countries and China are facing a population implosion. This fast decline is a big societal problem.
@@andrea-dawn *due to the horrifically unsustainable practices required for our capitalist system to function
@@haifutter4166population implosion is a problem you say?
I have never thought there's a single negative impact of a reducing population. I would like to hear that side from you.
If we take away the idea that human Economy is supposed to keep growing forever, by being hinged on having more consumers the following year than the previous year, I'm yet to hear if there's a single negative consequences of a reducing population
@@mugumyapaultheafricannomad9488 Just read about it. What do you think how healthcare systems and geriatric nursing should keep up with a rapidly declining population? How will pensions and healthcare insurances survive when the disbalance between elderly and the workforce is too big. Degrowth isn't the problem. It only becomes a problem, when it happens too fast.
Demographic changes and challenges where basic part of my schools curriculum.
Production of CONVENTIONAL oil did indeed peak in 2005 and has been going sideways even since. UNCONVENTIONAL (Tar sands/deepwater/heavy) oil bought us a few years more. Then in 2014, due to 0% interest rates, shale oil became possible for a few years more. We're down to one big shale oil/frakking field in Texas, and when thats gone, we're in trouble. Most of the rest of the world cant do shale oil.
Nailed it.
When the Permian starts its decline, get ready for $100+oil
And yes agree you nailed it
Yep! And check out Art Berman who is sounding the alarm on declines in shale plays. They are declining faster than predicted, likely because they drilled wells too close and they are animalizing each other.
About 1/3 of oil in the U.S. was removed by old technology, an additional 1/3 of oil can be retrieved using fracking and horizontal drilling which means there is as much oil available as was already produced.
The stone age didn’t end for a lack of stones
Energy is different. We always optimize energy consumption naturally. The stone age ended because we learned how to store energy.
😂
More accurately, to exploit solar energy stored in the Earth’s crust over hind of millions of years as coal, gas and oil.
Even stones we use more then ever. Biomass 2/3 unsustainable, coal, oil, gas. We use all of them more then ever.
No sign of slowing down.
So?
To ponder the idea of stimulating increased demand for oil in an era of runaway green house effect is psychotic.
@petterbirgersson4489
Many countries' peoples tend to put psychotic ones in charge. It's basic human societal organizational nature to view psychos as fearless leaders. Fearlessness may actually be a manifestation of a "don't-give-a-hoot" character.
beleiving in "GHE" is psychotic, get your boooster already
It just blows me away to see so many people here in Georgia driving huge gas guzzling trucks /SUVs.... just wastefully burning the chit out of fuel....
I'm even more blown away by seeing people drive SUVs and even pickup trucks here in Poland, especially in the cities.
Shared Aptera would be a total opposite.There are some cases where it is justified to use a heavy vehicle while moving heavy loads.
I’ve never seen any of these “yee yee” trucks in Oklahoma hauling anything. They got big ole wheels and for what?!
@@justynawisniewska1213morons
Yea and SUVs and such are much more dangerous at killing people than smaller cars @@justynawisniewska1213
Back in the day we were worried oil would run out, now I'm scared it won't.
So you want jets to no longer work?
There doesnt seem to be an alternative to kerosene fuel at the moment. These cant gp electric and propeller planes with electricity will definetly be slower and seem like theyll have less range
Oh yeah also say goodbye to space travel
Wow this may blow your mind little bro@@nvs0p , but yes I actually care more about having a planet to live on than your air travel or imaginary space travel (you'll never afford it). And it's hard to do any of that anyway, if you don't have a planet to live one, you know?
@@nvs0pOf course its a roblox kid 😂
Bro thought he’ll join the elites in the space shuttle
@richardwilde1348 yeah, I'm not talking about myself. The thing is that we're basically locked here forever until someone else thinks of some other way to make fuel. I dont care if I ever go to space. However you seem to really underestimate how much harder life will become without oil. You already have a planet to live on, and you have these things. Climate has also been not too different from 40 years ago, there were hot days back then too, but no one seems to talk about it in that way
@angkhoa1216 does it really matter if I'm a roblox kid or not, I haven't changed my pfp in a few years anyway
As I said to the other guy, idc if I'll ever go to space but we will basically be locked here forever. And it isn't just space. Most of the aircraft from after ww2 will be useless because their engines can't work like that anymore. We also won't have any types of rockets, which for icbms doesn't seem too bad, but they could be useful for other things than war. There are many other uses to fuel that I didnt point out and that exist and are very significant, although they can get replaced with electricity
Hey, DW, you should do a video on energy blindness
Energy blindness is when battery technology is scaling up 100x faster than fossil fuels did and nobody even really makes notice.
@@ApjoozThat's not it at all. We also don't have the mineral wealth to transition our energy infrastructure & use to battery/ renewable generation. Simon Michaux did a feasibility analysis for the Finnish government & found that it wasn't possible. He produced a few digestible presentations on TH-cam if you want to educate yourself.
@@davisbradford7438 Don't even try with that guy. Nothing matters... we can have limitless energy. This is the type of person like Doomberg.
@Apjooz
Battery technology has improved a lot but internal combustion engine is still the mainstay of automobile propulsion technologies.
Electric cars are still expensive and can't be charged quickly, widely, and retain its charge for long. It must be continually be charged and discharged to avoid the batteries conking out quickly.
Internal combustion car engines don't have this continually plugged-in and discharged requirement. Imagine a new COVID-like pandemic striking again and we can't go outside but need to keep our cars ready to go.
Lookup Nate Hagens
One very important very rapid trend driving slowing oil demand is EV adoption in China. The boom has been insanely rapid EVs have gone from 5% of car sales in 2020, to 35% in 2023, and there are realistic forecasts it'll grow to over 50% by 2024. China alone makes up ~14% of global oil demand. Assuming the transport sector is around half of that, then this trend _alone_ is a major downward pressure on global oil demand. When you consider that cheap Chinese EVs are driving adoption in other countries as well, the effect magnifies.
This highlights a different issue - people keep talking about "China is collapsing - look at the drop in exports". yeah, China is transitioning to supplying it own internal market of 400 million middle class. THATS why its not exporting.
The thing that annoys me is - china announced this in 2020. So the commentators are either lying or too lazy to even read the announcements
its counter intuitive to think that even if you need fossil fuels to power EVs, they will still take A LOT less fossil fuels than a single ICE. and China is expanding their renewables and nuclear faster than any country. I think it helps feeling in their lungs the impact of air polution, and I'm sure being an authocracy that don't answer to olygarchs like the US also help.
@danilooliveira6580
We Columbians generally have catalytic converters in our internal combustion engine cars. That avoids most of the pollution coming from our cars.
Yes, America the beautiful has fairly clean air relative to the Third World countries despite our driving a lot more distance. China could've mandated catalytic converters and cleaned up city air a long time ago.
We’ve never actually used less of an energy source in our history. Bill Rees, the ecologist that first conceived of the carbon-footprint, has some great lectures on TH-cam about overshoot and what it means for our species. Fair warning: you can’t unlearn what he can teach you. In one if his lectures he notes that, despite making numerous transitions from one energy source to the next, we’ve only ever added. For instance, the human species burns more biomass today than it did in the 19th century. Thinking green energy will save us is obtuse. Saw somebody else mention Michaeux - also great lectures on the math behind a renewable transition. 2024 - 2025 is the projected shale peak, and then watch out. The importance of oil to our society will become apparent to anybody paying attention.
"40 years of oil supply'. Well, the stuff actually has to be explored, financed, organized, regulated, pumped out of the ground, refined and reaching the customers. Here some fact: After several severe cuts by OPEC and "failing demand" oil prices are by about $ 90.00. Nice cheap. I see it daily on the gas station and in the grocery stores. US shale oil production might peak within 2 or 3 years and then decline or likelier become much more costly. Meanwhile the world is running out of a lot of minerals needed for the new technologies. Even copper demand might exceed supply this year already with very predictable consequences. To just supply electrical Vehicles in the near future the power grids in many areas have to be doubled or tripled, something that is unachievable for a lot of reasons. What oil producing countries loose on tonnage they will easily gain on sky high prices for fossil fuel in the near future.
I think it is cute how folks say solar is cheaper than coal, but coal is base load, and solar is intermittent. It's like saying apples are cheaper than apple pie. Solar panels are cheap enough, lets talk about solar panels + sufficient batteries to have the same number of 9's of reliability.
Yes exactly. I have a house, I can generate electricity much more cheaply with a solar system than I can with a diesel generator (back of the envelope calculation, about 12c vs about 80c), however while a solar system without batteries or a generator backup is useful during the day, its not much good if I'm late home from work and want to heat some food up in the microwave or have some lights on during the night, so really the cost comparison is generator plus diesel vs solar plus batteries plus generator plus a lot less diesel, and thats probably a lot closer than the first comparison especially if I add a small battery and auto start/stop to the generator equation so it doesn't have to run 24/7 for small loads like a NAS or fridge.
Nuclear should be our base load
Base load is very important indeed. But there are many ways to provide the base load : nuclear, geothermal (assuming we'll develop the technology to harvest geothermal energy in non-volcanic areas)
@@deepinthewoods8078I think the focus should be on pumped hydro storage in most places.
@@AusKipper1 That's another option indeed. Ideal to capture excess solar or wind power ...
What your report completely ignores are prosecutions against oil companies by the EU and others. This will be disastrous for them.
the thing is there is more oil around the world than people are measuring as people in certain area's have left their oil in the ground such as off the coast of south ameriaca there is some untapped oil reserves. also the lie about being cheaper to produce electricity through renewables is a lie as it is government subsidized and still raising utility rates.
Just one more thing… a barrel of oil costs $80 - $90 bucks right now, and can perform the equivalent of 4.5 years of human labour.
If we do the maths, a barrel of oil generates 1700 kWh and just a kilo of Uranium-235 generates 24000000 KWh.
Nuclear energy and transitions to fusion should also be researched and massified. Is way more efficient and clean way to generate power.
If renewable energy really is cheaper than oil, why is oil used at all?
Because oil is still superior and we have some of it left. Plus, there is no way to produce something like plastic, asphalt, jet fuel etc. without it.
Renewables are intermittent. As she noted in the video there is a ways to go on storage. The IEA has stats on how much is used for transportation so look them up. Oil is only part of the CO2 problem and transportation is a small part overall.
The reason companies/nations, are pumping as much as they can is because they need it out of the ground and payed for before the market collapses.
They know full well what's coming and could probably give you a year, month, day, and time when the market is expected to collapse.
That has led to two opposing strategies, the one I outlined above, and another which is cutting supply now to get top dollar for what is sold.
This cutting supply is why prices are rising right now, otherwise they'd be falling like a stone rolling down a mountain side.
One thing I really wish we would find an alternative for is manufacturing oil, I work in manufacturing and we use so much oil, not for energy but for lubricant. It would be great if there was an alternative, but so far nothing works quite as well or is available.
Also in the last year or so, I've switched over to using a cargo e-bike for 90%+ my commutes (charged 100% with my solar panels), and let me tell you the thrill of being able to commute without having to even think of the price of electricity or oil is exhilarating. Everyone is complaining about oil/gas prices and I'm zipping by on sunlight collected in my yard. It's hard for me to even imagine things like the gas crisis from the 1970s and how people literally thought they wouldn't be able to get to work because oil wasn't available. We just have so many great options for alternatives now... solar panels, batteries, hybrid systems, LEDs, etc... future is great! Let's hit peak oil!
that is why we will never really stop producing oil, its too useful. the sad part is that we basically burned all the easily accessible oil, leaving us only with the ones that are only profitable because of subsidies. so I'm not sure how the plastic, lubricant, and other oil industries will look like if we completely switch our energy source.
Rendered lard is a good lubricant
@danilooliveira6580
I came from a place where there wasn't much plastics so I knew what it looked like. We used glass bottles, wood, and natural fibers.
@@solconcordia4315 a lot of things you use every day use oil products, its not just single use plastics. a LOT of it can be replaced by bio alternatives, but petroleum will always be useful.
There was a mention around 0:58 that "before 2000, electric vehicles were nearly unheard of." That is not quite true. I remember reading that in the 1930s (in the US) there were a lot of electric cars around! But I guess two things happened - battery technology did not keep up with IC engines, and, the oil lobby won!
I think nearly unheard of accurately describes the fame of electric cars
I’d say the average persons outlook was that it’s not possible, I think that’s what she meant
" NEARLY " unheard
You are remembering wrong. Just off by about 20 years. Prior to widespread adoption of mass produced internal combustion, at the start of the century, prototype electric cars were in serious competition. But by the 1930s that wasn't the case, and it wasn't because of some grand oil lobby. In other areas, electricafaction was proceeding rapidly. It's just that without dramatic improvements in battery technology, for transportation, battery powered vehicles weren't competitive. You might have a stronger argument if you focused on the destruction of the trolleys and why America didn't go with electrified rail transport. But I think that is more vintage 1950s.
The electric starter and muffler won, that's what made the difference.
Peak oil is long since passed if you consider per capita numbers. It peaked above 5 barrels per capita per year in the 70-s of the XX century. Then it dropped to 4 barrels per capita per year and had been more or less stable since.
Conventional oil, which is what they drilled in Hubert’s day, did hit a production peak in 2006. All growth in oil production since then has been in shale oil and tar sands.
Non-combustible lubricants, plastics, etc... aren't going anywhere. Grease has no substitute.
you can make grease from plants, in fact you can make any polymer from plants
@@DBGE001destruction of plants 😅
I laughed when she got to the “and that’s why investing in renewable is a smart idea.” That was only reason they produced this: Germany has invested a trillion dollars into renewables.
Oil has peaked already and crude oil is getting lighter, meaning less diesel in each barrel. Our civilization runs on diesel.
Nice video. Does not state strongly enough the pairing of renewables and battery technology. Paired with batteries, renewables have killed coal and is cutting down fossil fuels even further. Battery Peaker plants have been replacing fossil fuels. Proven technology helping speed up renewable adoption.
Hi there! Thank you for your feedback! We make videos about different energy sources, and different issues. Here we talk about coal -> th-cam.com/video/42yF2t7xMHY/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared and here about electric batteries -> th-cam.com/video/qiQcGdq66DI/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared Check it out 😀 If you want to see more videos like these, subscribe to our channel, we post new videos every Friday ✨
Gas is replacing coal, not renewables.
If you are interested in this topic, check out Nate Hagens or Art Berman
100%, yes. They have better info and more relevant insights than this video
@@acornlandlabsThe explanation in this video is so oversimplified.
I cannot agree more! Here's my upvote
Can also recommend a talk (or lecture) by Al Bartlett, it's on TH-cam and a bit over an hour long. It covers exponential growth and finite resources and will give anyone the necessary tools to properly understand and think about questions like peak oil.
The world likely won't run out of oil, but it will run out of easily accessible oil. This will massively increase the cost of continued oil use, unless we move toward renewables or nuclear.
All resources are finite. Seeking new energy sources should be a never ending pursuit but it should be the free market that gets us there not bureaucrats and activists.
The world most certainly will run out of oil 50 to 60 years tops
If everyone adapted a 1960 lifestyle, we'd be around a lot longer. Care to place a bet?
@@jocko1283 There has never been a greater ratio between consumption and known reserves in history. We are awash in oil and we're finding it everywhere.
@@bellakrinkle9381 Depends how you are defining lifestyle. Go check out stats for 1960. Everybody faired worse, right across the globe by almost any metric you care to imagine.
I vote we speed up the transition to...high insulation, renewables so we have more economic security when oil prices do crash from peak demand.
We are already past the peak oil mark. It wouldn't be announced blaringly on TV. But the economic indicators are undeniable 2008, 2015, 2024...
exactly, but fracking has made the peak more of a plateau.
@@DBGE001 fracking has even created an even higher peak in 2018, we're on a plateau since then, noticable decrease of availability of oil might happen aroud 2030, some people even think in the next couple of years.
@@DBGE001 fracking is a more intensive process, slower and expensive way to get oil... not a bottomless oil well or a novel solution. The right question here is whether it's viable or sensible for us to continue using oil at an increasing rate that is needed to sustain the expected rate of global development. Simply no. Not economically, not environmentally. The plateau cannot feed a rising exponential demand and this gap is what's glitching the world economy repeatedly.
We haven't even begun to use oil reserves of largest capacity country i.e Venezuela's reserves at full capacity.
that will never happen because it is against American Interests aka a national security thread.
@@DBGE001 Lol. The latin invasion is pending
No matter when it happens... Relying on a finite nonrenewable resource with ever increasing price and diminishing availability is simply idiotic!
- We are currently burning 90-110 million barrels of oil per DAY.
- Fossil fuels are the reason for almost all conflicts and wars in the world right now.
- 7-8 million deaths per year are linked to air pollution from burning fossil fuel.
- The Saudis are currently cooking up a plan to build roads in Africa and are partnering with Toyota to sell gas vehicles just to boost oil demand and profits.
- The petrol industry generates $10 Billion in profits per DAY and receives $11 Million in SUBSIDIES per MINUTE!
... also deforestation, oil spills, pollution of air and ground water, political corruption, global puppet governments, poverty and so on.
The sooner we drastically reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, the better for all of us. It's not about "the planet"... our planet does not care, it will continue to exist. What is in danger is the fragile ecosystem we all depend on.
We need oil to produce plastics. Solar power won't be able to produce the plastic parts that we need to build our stuff that we use.
I think we would all be okay with a 99% decrease in oil consumption. I mean… we will run out sooner or later anyway.
yeah over a century or so, not a reduction of 99% in 10 or 20 years
I'm not ok with it and neither would you if you fully understood what your are saying.
@@billrentz9133 having a 99% reduction overnight in oil(and other fossil fuels) consumption with nothing to replace it with, life will not be as pleasant as it is now. sure if it is replaced with green alternatives, i'm all for it.
@@stijn2644 A decades long transition is far from over night. We have the ability to do it AND it would be an economic boom.
Is that what you call going back to the dark ages "not as pleasant"? There are no green alternatives. More power is generated on earthy by burning wood and cow shit than wind and solar after spending trillions on "renewables".@@stijn2644
"Based on the current reserves we have about 40 years of oil." Wow, 40 years, that's like forever.
We hit +2°C in respect to pre-industrial average temperature!
DW= Are we running out of oil?
What happens to all these abandoned wells? Time to enforce some responsibility on the oil companies for end of production
The fact is that man ruined everything for his own sake
Yes, we are running out of oil, just a lot slower than predicted. It’s not a sharp peak, it’s a plateau, and now it’s declining at a barely noticeable pace. And the more oil is substituted by technologies like electric cars, the slower we are running out of oil.
What do you think is used to produce the electricity for the EV's. Hint - its not pixi dust. It is Natural Gas and coal.
@@haysjack6818 … and nuclear power. And wind. And solar. And water…. All of it mixed together. And the amount of the various independents varies with the price - solar is much cheaper than coal and natural gas, so we can expect it’s share to grow, while coal declines, and natural gas turns into sort of stopgap energy for the times when there is not enough sun and wind.
YAAAAY thank you for the new narrator!!! I've unfortunately had such a hard time understanding the Indian accent of the usual narrator! And please never add clips in other languages with subtitles, I am only listening, not looking at the screen! This video was great!
With the shift from cars to motorcycles the demand for oil will fall.
In country South Australia I’m noticing significant increase in petrol stations, even old ones are being expanded and modernised. So the renewable argument doesn’t seem right. If petrol gas companies are spending money on infrastructure here then their counting on still being around for the long term?
Fun fact gas stations don't make money from selling fuel, most of the money is made from selling things food, drinks concession etc etc
@@another_turtle hopefully they’ll be able to maintain their existence on food etc as cost of living is bringing issues now and might affect their bottom line.
Same in Perth, Western Australia. So many new petrol stations!
Unfortunately the decision makers are Boomers who refuse to stop working and believe in the fossil fuel industry, and that it will never fade... In their lifetime they may just see renewables eclipse coal and electricity eclipse fossil fuel
Australia will be one of the last countries to electrify. Batteries do not like high temps, we have them, battery vehicles are OK in the city but less good at long distance, we have plenty of distance. I dont think they will stop building petrol stations here until Europe is 85% electric vehicles.
The idea that demand for oil will peak in 2030 is nuts. Renewables are a sliver of total energy output today and will not grow to over 50% in 6 years. We may think it's "easy" to ditch your gas car, just as one example, but only wealthy people can do that. Most people are going to hang on to their gas cars for the next 6 years. If countries in the EU plan to make sales of new gas cars illegal by 2030 (some are) that won't effect the cars people already have. Look at the cars outside: they're almost all gas cars. And then there's industry! Running on fossils! Not changing in 6 years!
We’ll run out of coastline before we run out of oil.
If we only have 40 years left of oil,means we are running out of oil.
0:55 hahaha I love that song
Changing the energy source of our cars helps a little, but the best thing would be if we reduce cars altogether.
1:09 might be a long shot to ask if you have info on this statistic
but when people say renewables are just now cheaper than fossil fuels, is that comparing prices with subsidies?
like renewables are subsidized a little bit currently, without them the price would be abit higher
but fossil fuels are subsidized 7 trillion dollars per year globally, so surely the price of fossil fuels without them is so high that renewables have been cheaper for quite some time no?
No, probably not comparing prices with subsidies, but also certainly not accounting for the extra costs of backup power for when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining. I dont know about solar but I know wind energy is pretty cheap to generate using large on shore turbines, if it would just generate at a nice steady capacity 100% of the time we would be fine, but it doesn't, so we need a gas/coal/nuclear/hydro power plant waiting in the background for when the wind stops blowing and that is not priced in to their calculations when they say wind is cheaper than coal for example. Also fossil fuel subsidies are usually misrepresented. The fossil fuel industry would be costing governments money instead of making them vast amounts of tax revenue if they were really heavily subsidized. For example a government might provide an oil company a few percent subsidy on their income taxes every now and again so they have some extra money to do some oil exploration, but after taking into account royalties on produced oil and income taxes on generally higher wages they pay employees, and payroll taxes I promise you the government is getting their pound of flesh (in a western nation, I am aware things work different in Africa).
@@AusKipper1 but fossil fuel companies DO cost governments huge amounts of money instead of making them any
fossil fuel industry is subsidized 7 trillion per year and they make 4 trillion in profit
we're all basically paying for their profits
@@vincentgrinn2665 Yeah, that 7 trillion number is completely made up by the green groups, only about 10% of that number is "real", the rest is "implicit subsidies" which is numbers they make up for environmental damage or using public roads etc. I mean think about it logically for a minute, how would Alaska pay all its citizens $1500 a year from oil revenues/royalties just to live in Alaska if the oil companies were actually costing the government money? Saudi Arabia would be totally bankrupt as would Qatar. I live in Australia, the Australian federal budget is almost 20% from fossil fuel and mining royalties and taxes on those companies and workers, thats why we are called the lucky country. Norway is creating a massive sovereign investment fund with its fossil fuel revenues, would that be possible if fossil fuel companies cost money overall? And remember a subsidy is not giving the company money, its saying they don't have to pay that amount in tax. For the time being fossil fuel companies are both making you money and providing the world with an affordable and dense fuel that is still currently more or less essential.
Hey Vincent! Sure! It is based on several reports.
👉ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth (See graph "The price of electricity of new power plants")
👉 commission.europa.eu/news/focus-renewable-energy-europe-2020-03-18_en (In 2019, EU wind and solar power surpassed coal, marking their competitive cost)
👉 iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ae17da3d-e8a5-4163-a3ec-2e6fb0b5677d/Projected-Costs-of-Generating-Electricity-2020.pdf (Assuming moderate emission costs of USD 30/tCO2, renewables now rival dispatchable fossil fuel electricity in many nations)
Thank you for your interest in this subject!
@@DWPlanetA hm ok, that 30$/ton was abit surprising since only 3 countries have an emissions tax that high
but just from rough maths it seems like that 7 trillion dollars in fossil subisidies *only* decreases the cost per mwh by $50, which is crazy low but i guess we just use so much fossil fuels
that means sweden is the only country on earth paying full price for fossil fuels
The truth is that we stopped looking for it. There is probably much more.
Too many simplistic assertions in this article to address here. I suggest the authors look at some of the work being done by Nate Hagen on energy blindness.
Very true! I liked Nate's interviews with Art Berman & the Canadian Prepper. Really hoping nuclear war doesn't occur over this issue
Not all oil is used for transport and not all transport can use electricity.
Second, it all oil reserves cost the same. The Middle East has the cheapest oil production cost in the world, and they will be able to monetize their oil for decades to come.
The 40 years reserve projection is built on a mix of all world crude, and the more expensive, less prolific reserve will call quits within the next 20 years.
Crude oil never run out, because the earth core keep on producing it, while the glove keeping it's journey orbiting the sun. The problem being was if these crude oil don't suck, it find it's way to flee it insert even at the smallest crack beneath and the volcanos are multiply because of it heat pressure.
AAAAAAHAHAHAHHAAH Funny.
If Africa needs to be rich Africa needs to reduce dependence on oil and move to solar and Wind energy Africa can achieve this goal north African countries can provide more Electricity with solar and wind
All oil companies are expanding extraction . There is no end of oil.
Leave an oil well empty for 10 years and it fills back up because the earths mantel makes it continuously.
@xraylife
We'll have the jet fuel to fly you to Davos in ten years once the oil has come back and been refined. 😂
@@xraylifeWhut? Have you seen the number of wells sitting empty for decades?
@@urbanistgod Small ones in Texas maybe because they are borderline economic when running well and no one wants to maintain them without production for years.
@@xraylife What do you mean? Why wouldn’t they want to maintain something that fills back up?
I have been anticipating a collision between the fossil fuel narrative and renewable energy for several years now. I think we're seeing it unfold in real time now.
Save Our Planet Now!
Oil is no where near running out; Canada has vast deposits and Australia has just proved a reserve to equal the Saudis, while Venezuela could drown their country in the stuff.
Canada's oil is tar oil and is extremely toxic.
source? aus has as much oil as the saudis?
Peaking demand is not the same as declining demand. Peaking demand does not automatically mean "oversupply" or "falling prices".
Did you think that oil would last forever?
There will always be a demand for oil for the production of plastics and other petrochemicals, it's only a small fraction (pun intended) of the crude product that's actually used for energy and transportation.
Plastics are also made from natural gas.
Big Oil oil is very much betting on plastic. And it is hard to solve the plastic pollution problem...Check out our piece "Is bioplastic the „better“ plastic?" here 👉 th-cam.com/video/-_eGOyAiNIQ/w-d-xo.html.
The US EIA says 66% of oil consumed goes to transportion in 2022. Even the OECD says almost half of oil production went to cars and trucks in 2022. If avaition, rail, and marine industries were added, it would be almost 66%.
Plastic can be produced from plants ☘️🌵 And so can oil be. Also oil can be derived from plastics. We simply don't do it cause it's cheaper to extract it from the ground.
PLA is made from corn. You can make everything you need from plants.
OECD Countries is pseudonym for 'the distribution of natural resources would never be equal.' What will be the pseudonym for renewable energy?
The world will never run out of oil, just like the world did not run out of coal. Resource is based on knowledge, which produces technology. What is a resource is also based on the market. When something better comes along, the previous resource is no longer competitive and is no longer used. The stone age ended not because the world ran out of stone.
One thing to note: Hubbert was not the first to predict peak oil. In fact, there are records of people predicting a peak in oil a *half century* prior. Even in the early 1900s, this was a concern. We've known since the beginning that oil is finite, we just don't know how much there is. Turns out there's likely enough oil that we can all but destroy our ecosystem before we use it all up.
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@@DWPlanetALol. So random.
the tragedy is that we are not running out of oil (and coal) anytime soon
It breaks my heart to see swathes of solar panels covering such large surfaces of fertile land
there is plenty of fertile land in the world, enough to feed trillions of people. if they need that land to plant food they can just move the solar panels, because unlike oil drilling that can contaminate many acres of land and turn it impossible to grow food, solar panels are just sitting there and can be easily moved.
It breaks my heart to see such large surfaces of fertile land covered with feed crops.
@@andrea-dawn thankfully population will decline
It breaks my heart to see such large surfaces of fertile land covered in Golf Courses.
We have begun to bulldoze farmland, forests, jungles, meadows, deserts and even mountain sides to lay hectares of useless solar panels. This represents unprecedented and permanent plant and animal habitat destruction. I thought that this was what we were trying to avoid.
It wouldn't matter if the oil did run out. We can convert coal and natural gas into oil through catalytic processes. And we can use nucler hydrogen for the coal hydrogenation, which will imcrease the yield by 27%. And we can gasify crop residue, municipal solid waste, and sewage sludge and hydrogenate them to make even more oil.
There's more to it than just raw supply of crude. Also, both coal and natural gas require their own expensive extraction and processing themselves and they're already allocated in their own supply chains. So, we would need even more of it to be extracted to scale up those catalytic processes.
Then if you're talking about e-fuels, the very high cost of that process coupled with its excruciating slow production rate make that process infeasible. E-fuels still requires *tons of energy* to drive the chemical process in reverse: from base CO₂, H₂O → hydrogen into various hydrocarbon molecules. So where will this energy need to come from? It needs to be come from renewables because you can't use natural fossil fuels to make synthetic fossil fuels and call that sustainable. Thus e-fuels will just will *add* to more renewables growth and other non-fossil fuel sources (nuclear, geo, etc). Then that will just drive the global markets _further_ away from fossil fuels in terms of percentages and renewables investment.
Furthermore, burning carbon fuels (natural or synthetic) still clogs up our cities and atmosphere with toxic smog like NOₓ SOₓ, BTX, CO, nano sized particulates
I don't think I've ever been particularly concerned about oil or gas running out. Those predictions seemed to discount human ingenuity and technological development. Was horizontal directional drilling, MWD/LWD even a thing when Hubbert predicted peak oil? The fall off in demand is far more forseeable, given the advances in renewables and energy efficiency. I reckon we're going to end up leaving a lot of hydrocarbons in the ground, but equally we're not going to stop using them any time soon. There are too many use cases and industrial processes that rely on gas in particular for it to disappear in the short to medium term.
Russia / Saudi Arabia/ Iran/ Venezuela/ Nigeria
those rich oil countries will never give you real data about their oil reserves
Fracking just contaminates the ground water...
The modern world and the safety and prosperity it provides comes with a cost. Rational people embrace an environmental cost/benefit analysis. Hospitals are incredibly destructive to the environment. Should we ban them?
I really hope so
I wonder what role oil plays for mother earth underneath the surface..🤔. I have never come across such a research.. All I know is what oil can do for us above the surface. Can DW cover on this aspect as well ?
They need big vehicles to either match their egos, or maybe they need to enhance their frail egos by super-sizing their vehicle. Just guessing.
Forget about our future. It doesn't exist.
I am not interested in how long oil will last. Moving away from oil is inevitable, so it's better to do the energy transition as quickly as possible and save the planet.
Amazing vid
Glad you enjoyed it. ✨
The point is that each barrel of oil extracted destroys the future of our children. And for what ? Stupid SUVs and trucks, moving useless goods all over the world, flying while other options are possible, making clothes that will be used a few time (or never) before being dumped, living in homes too large to be efficiently heated or cooled, etc.
I’m worried about NOT running outa oil.
Most likely a peak oil demand will not happen for 2 simple reasons: there are an extra 1 billion people that will try to get a middle class energy intensive lifestyle in the next decade in India and Africa; A decrease in coal consumption due to pressure to slow climate change will result in extra demand for oil.
Renewables new yearly installed capacity is still around 7X less then needed to replace both coal and oil to have a peak oil demand. Is just not going to happen under a profit driven market.
Carbon tax is the solution.
too little too late, they are just afraid and will not extend it to the mases because it will lower the standard of living
In EU we now have a big push for renewable because of energy prices and security. At best it will push out coal sooner. CO2 price is close to 50Euro and has no effect
@@sandelu635 Of course it is too late, but that concerns all climate measures. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t implement it.
@@Simon-dm8zv in the context of "running out of oil" even if we ignore climate change i still think we are going to have a big energy crisis by 2035
Scarcity is an illusion
Oil prices won’t become cheaper. OPEC will simply reduce the supply to keep profits high. The oil industry is pretty much a monopoly so why would they willing reduce the cost.
The price increases will push the consumers of oil to switch to alternatives. Instead of using fossil fuel based vehicles , they will switch to hybrid or EV. This permanently reduces demand. The oil producers will increase prices to recover lost revenue and the cycle will repeat. Less demand will push prices down as oil producers compete for a declining number of consumers. Oil consumption won't disappear but become less common and for more specific purposes.
@@andreak334 - normally, I would agree, but the fossil fuel industry has a lot of money to spend on propaganda. It’s part of the reason there’s a growing group of EV haters and companies keep trying to convince us to use hydrogen. 🙄
While OPEC is a cartel that collectively decides production, the oil industry is certainly not a monopoly. There are numerous active competitors, and the price is based on supply and demand.
Despite all the talk about renewable energy sources, oil companies are recording ever higher profits.
I thought the video would answer the question from its title!
We do address how the concern now has changed into a plateu in demand instead of supply. But that will not come overnight, as OPEC predicts that oil demand will not peak until after 2035. And in the mean time big oil is still betting on the demand for fossil fuels. 🌚
@@DWPlanetA I expected the video to talk about (in)accurate estimates of oil reserves. But that is obviously not a topic for this green-optimistic channel.🙂
Sorry, could you elaborate on this: in which direction you think they are inaccurate towards?
@@DWPlanetA Some people think that the problem will disappear when the oil reserves are exhausted. Earlier estimates about that moment turned out to be incorrect, i.e. there is still enough oil. I don't know what the current reserve estimates are. And will they ever be exhausted. And I don't think there is enough oil because less is being consumed. In fact, instead of talking about a slower INCREASE in emissions, an increase in renewable sources, it would be better to say whether the consumption (and thus production) of oil is globally DECREASING?
The electric from solar and wind is not cheaper....the government's subsidy the industry
I wish we were running out of oil.
Yes!
This is well known to everyone. That's why the low valuation for this industry
Enough getting oil today
What about all the oil usa has ?
"No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future"(2017).
@josemercado3063Humanity wishes Rudolf Clausius has said it this way, in 1854 or before the genius died.
Rudolf Clausius stopped short of concluding that "Energy, like time, flows from past to future" (2017).
I he didn't stop, he would have saved a little bit of fossil fuel reserves - rather than becoming savagely exploited to the ground - like no tomorrow.
How humanity unlucky Rudolf Clausius has not said it this way, in 1854 or before the genius died.
Good
Já disse: Façam o modelo 46 frota ativa veicular.
40% + 60 % sendo : 40% com combustao + 40% sem combustao + 20% vale tudo , qualquer propulsao.
Isso vai permitir inovação tecnológica e lançamentos de novos modelos para o mercado sem prejudicar as cotas fixas definidas .
E deixar a indústria automobilística livre para arriscar uma "ideia mexilenta cabeçuda " na economia .....
. E ver se " as mulheres ( cidades) querem ( aceitam comprar) e gostam ( ficam satisfeitas com os modelos ).
Se tiver frota a combustao carbonica com pegada automática de CO2 e de outros gases tóxicos na operacao de producao do barril ou biodiesel ou etanol ou qualquer outro ( produção industrial de combustível emissor de gases estufa) a frota será ecologicamente certificada. E a operação de CO2 será automática no mercado de combustíveis.
Então pode ter frota de propulsores que queimam amônia , gasolina, diesel, álcool, metano , etc .
Mas a pegada ecológica de CO2 tem que ser imediata. No ato da compra do barril ou fabricação do combustível verde nas destilarias de estanol ou biodiesel ou biometano.
Fabricou bio combustivel ou extraiu petroleo ???????
Então tem que pegar o CO2 no volume fabricado ou extraido . No ato da compra do volume no sistema economico industrial .
Esses ativos gasosos são o combustível do futuro.
We aren’t running out of oil yet. But we are running into our of cheap oil.
in 2008 Fox News kept saying oil is a finite source, of course a republican was president and FN isn't known for their creditability
6:00
Regarding Fossel Fuel as a back up power during night when there is no sun,
Yes, it is true as of now, because Energy Storage cost is high.
But in 10 years, Clean Energy Generation cost + Storage cost combinedly will become cheeper than Fossel Fuel electricity.
Using Lithium ion battery for Stationary storage is the most dumbest thing ever.
Sodium ion battery can be cheeper compared to Lithium ion.
(Energy density doesn't matter of Stationary storage).
And once mass manufacturing of Sodium ion battery starts, it will follow similar cost curve, and in few years its cost will react $10/kWh.
Which is ultra cheap (1/10th) of the cost of Lithium ion battery.
This will make Renuable energy super cheap.
Hey there, exactly - the obstacles with sodium do not consern stationary grid at all. Go ahead and take a look at this video from us if you did not already! 👇
🧂 "How salt and sand could replace lithium batteries"
th-cam.com/video/-vobMl5ldOs/w-d-xo.html
I doubt quality of life will drop in most 3rd world countries without oil. Very little of the wealth goes to citizens. There's instead an intense, and often very corrupt, competition for oil wealth in these countries. Divisive politics. Often enough unrest and even civil wars.
So ironically I believe quality of life in most 3rd world countries will increase without oil poisoning the political well so to speak.
I even suspect politics, and therefore quality of life, will increase in oil wealthy developed economies, once oil is out of the picture.
There is a direct correlation to access to energy and prosperity, regardless of the source. Human rights abusing totalitarian nations corrupt everything.
It's a great video. There is a timing issue for want of a better name. Look at BP. They seem to be backing away from investing in renewables, because ATM oil is making more money ( at least for oil companies).
My guess is the oil companies will be more like Kodak. Disappear suddenly after not taking new technology threats seriously
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@DWPlanetA I have already, love the work you do.
Only 40 years of oil?? That’s very concerning
If you mean there's still 40 years of oil left yeah that is concerning
@@tsg2009 I mean that we are not going to be able to replace our current dependence on oil in under 40 years, and running out before we figure out alternatives would be catastrophic.
@@Elliot_97 there's plenty of alternatives but the barons won't allow because they won't make as much money
@@tsg2009 We're not just talking about electricity production. We use fossil fuels for far more than that, and no there are no simple solutions to these which can be implemented and proliferated globally in such a short time frame.
@@Elliot_97 yes there is your just a sycophant
Who's "we?"
Well, the bronze age ended because bronze ended, then there was a surprise.
What is the "PEAKOIL" going to be?
Technology in Renewable energy is more awesome ❤
Drilling Engineer here: nope, we’re not running out of oil.
Sure you know your stuff.
But will you tell us you did all the global calculations? Hubbart linearisation, statistics? Or bottom up calculations.
Don't get me wrong. But being an ingenieur doesn't make you automatically an expert in global supply.
I am doing everything I can to get my family off of fossil fuels. Starting Monday, our electrician will begin connecting our geothermal system and the transition from our oil boiler will be complete. I got my wife to give up her giant SUV and we're an EV family now. The next step is solar panels. My dream is to have all of our electricity needs covered by renewables. My oil company called me about a month ago and said they noticed I hadn't called for a delivery in a while and would give me a 5% discount if I bought oil from them right now. I told the lady, sorry, we're switching to geo. She was quiet!
I've never liked being reliant on fossil fuels and having my budget impacted by some dictator half way around the world deciding they want to start a war. The quicker we get off of fossil fuels (or at least limit their use) the better for the planet.
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