The West will literally never give up oil unless & until the billionaire ruling class who calls all the shots is finally overthrown & our horrific capitalist system is abolished for good The alternative of course is that we all just kind of collectively decide to do nothing while the U.S. empire relentlessly burns even more oil to fuel its military industrial complex in a desperate attempt to stave off its inevitable collapse, wreaking even more ecological destruction around the world than it already does & ultimately leaving the planet uninhabitable for generations to come Fingers crossed we get our shit together 🤞😬
A fossil fuel future will drastically change our climate and environment. We need fossil fuels now in order to manufacture our renewable energy infrastructure but once sufficient renewable power sources are in place (hopefully, soon) we need to stop CO2 production.
I originally left a comment here a few hours ago & now it's mysteriously gone, but thankfully I saved it so I can post it here again- The West will literally never give up oil unless & until the billionaire ruling class who calls all the shots is finally overthrown & our horrific capitalist system is abolished for good The alternative of course is that we all just kind of collectively decide to do nothing while the U.S. empire relentlessly burns even more oil to fuel its military industrial complex in a desperate attempt to stave off its inevitable collapse, wreaking even more ecological destruction around the world than it already does & ultimately leaving the planet uninhabitable for generations to come Fingers crossed we get our shit together 🤞😬
Production of CONVENTIONAL oil did indeed peak in 2005 and has been going sideways even since. UNCONVENTIONAL (Tar sands/deepwater/heavy) oil bought us a few years more. Then in 2014, due to 0% interest rates, shale oil became possible for a few years more. We're down to one big shale oil/frakking field in Texas, and when thats gone, we're in trouble. Most of the rest of the world cant do shale oil.
Yep! And check out Art Berman who is sounding the alarm on declines in shale plays. They are declining faster than predicted, likely because they drilled wells too close and they are animalizing each other.
About 1/3 of oil in the U.S. was removed by old technology, an additional 1/3 of oil can be retrieved using fracking and horizontal drilling which means there is as much oil available as was already produced.
We are running out of oil but it's a moot point because the human race is now threatened with certain near term extinction as a result of building a world that runs on oil.
More like we are running out of stable ecosystem. We already destroyed so much. And overpopulation isn't that much of a problem. All developed countries and China are facing a population implosion. This fast decline is a big societal problem.
@@haifutter4166population implosion is a problem you say? I have never thought there's a single negative impact of a reducing population. I would like to hear that side from you. If we take away the idea that human Economy is supposed to keep growing forever, by being hinged on having more consumers the following year than the previous year, I'm yet to hear if there's a single negative consequences of a reducing population
@@mugumyapaultheafricannomad9488 Just read about it. What do you think how healthcare systems and geriatric nursing should keep up with a rapidly declining population? How will pensions and healthcare insurances survive when the disbalance between elderly and the workforce is too big. Degrowth isn't the problem. It only becomes a problem, when it happens too fast. Demographic changes and challenges where basic part of my schools curriculum.
@petterbirgersson4489 Many countries' peoples tend to put psychotic ones in charge. It's basic human societal organizational nature to view psychos as fearless leaders. Fearlessness may actually be a manifestation of a "don't-give-a-hoot" character.
Guess what, Indians and Africans want to own cars and travel by airplane just like we do. And one single airline in the US owns as many airplanes as there are in the entire country of India. Obviously demand will increase. You don't think the Indian middle class should be given the chance to travel by airplane to the same extent as we do? You don't think they want to travel by airplane as much as we do? That is incredibly racist
Conventional oil, which is what they drilled in Hubert’s day, did hit a production peak in 2006. All growth in oil production since then has been in shale oil and tar sands.
Wow this may blow your mind little bro@@nvs0p , but yes I actually care more about having a planet to live on than your air travel or imaginary space travel (you'll never afford it). And it's hard to do any of that anyway, if you don't have a planet to live one, you know?
@@nvs0p Probably we do not need a "life without oil". If we change to live as we did in the 50s, with a more equal distribution of resources, most likely we would have a reasonable living quality without destroying ourselves
It just blows me away to see so many people here in Georgia driving huge gas guzzling trucks /SUVs.... just wastefully burning the chit out of fuel....
@@ApjoozThat's not it at all. We also don't have the mineral wealth to transition our energy infrastructure & use to battery/ renewable generation. Simon Michaux did a feasibility analysis for the Finnish government & found that it wasn't possible. He produced a few digestible presentations on TH-cam if you want to educate yourself.
@Apjooz Battery technology has improved a lot but internal combustion engine is still the mainstay of automobile propulsion technologies. Electric cars are still expensive and can't be charged quickly, widely, and retain its charge for long. It must be continually be charged and discharged to avoid the batteries conking out quickly. Internal combustion car engines don't have this continually plugged-in and discharged requirement. Imagine a new COVID-like pandemic striking again and we can't go outside but need to keep our cars ready to go.
One very important very rapid trend driving slowing oil demand is EV adoption in China. The boom has been insanely rapid EVs have gone from 5% of car sales in 2020, to 35% in 2023, and there are realistic forecasts it'll grow to over 50% by 2024. China alone makes up ~14% of global oil demand. Assuming the transport sector is around half of that, then this trend _alone_ is a major downward pressure on global oil demand. When you consider that cheap Chinese EVs are driving adoption in other countries as well, the effect magnifies.
This highlights a different issue - people keep talking about "China is collapsing - look at the drop in exports". yeah, China is transitioning to supplying it own internal market of 400 million middle class. THATS why its not exporting. The thing that annoys me is - china announced this in 2020. So the commentators are either lying or too lazy to even read the announcements
its counter intuitive to think that even if you need fossil fuels to power EVs, they will still take A LOT less fossil fuels than a single ICE. and China is expanding their renewables and nuclear faster than any country. I think it helps feeling in their lungs the impact of air polution, and I'm sure being an authocracy that don't answer to olygarchs like the US also help.
@danilooliveira6580 We Columbians generally have catalytic converters in our internal combustion engine cars. That avoids most of the pollution coming from our cars. Yes, America the beautiful has fairly clean air relative to the Third World countries despite our driving a lot more distance. China could've mandated catalytic converters and cleaned up city air a long time ago.
We’ve never actually used less of an energy source in our history. Bill Rees, the ecologist that first conceived of the carbon-footprint, has some great lectures on TH-cam about overshoot and what it means for our species. Fair warning: you can’t unlearn what he can teach you. In one if his lectures he notes that, despite making numerous transitions from one energy source to the next, we’ve only ever added. For instance, the human species burns more biomass today than it did in the 19th century. Thinking green energy will save us is obtuse. Saw somebody else mention Michaeux - also great lectures on the math behind a renewable transition. 2024 - 2025 is the projected shale peak, and then watch out. The importance of oil to our society will become apparent to anybody paying attention.
Coal is already dying, its less than 10% of americas energy mix and will be gone soon, simply because cheaper options exist. This has happened with plenty of other commoddities like mercury. The idea of overshoot has an even worse track record of failure than peak oil. Thomas malthus predicted in the 1700s that the human population would expand beyond the ability of food production to support it by the mid 1800s.
The reason companies/nations, are pumping as much as they can is because they need it out of the ground and payed for before the market collapses. They know full well what's coming and could probably give you a year, month, day, and time when the market is expected to collapse. That has led to two opposing strategies, the one I outlined above, and another which is cutting supply now to get top dollar for what is sold. This cutting supply is why prices are rising right now, otherwise they'd be falling like a stone rolling down a mountain side.
There was a mention around 0:58 that "before 2000, electric vehicles were nearly unheard of." That is not quite true. I remember reading that in the 1930s (in the US) there were a lot of electric cars around! But I guess two things happened - battery technology did not keep up with IC engines, and, the oil lobby won!
You are remembering wrong. Just off by about 20 years. Prior to widespread adoption of mass produced internal combustion, at the start of the century, prototype electric cars were in serious competition. But by the 1930s that wasn't the case, and it wasn't because of some grand oil lobby. In other areas, electricafaction was proceeding rapidly. It's just that without dramatic improvements in battery technology, for transportation, battery powered vehicles weren't competitive. You might have a stronger argument if you focused on the destruction of the trolleys and why America didn't go with electrified rail transport. But I think that is more vintage 1950s.
"40 years of oil supply'. Well, the stuff actually has to be explored, financed, organized, regulated, pumped out of the ground, refined and reaching the customers. Here some fact: After several severe cuts by OPEC and "failing demand" oil prices are by about $ 90.00. Nice cheap. I see it daily on the gas station and in the grocery stores. US shale oil production might peak within 2 or 3 years and then decline or likelier become much more costly. Meanwhile the world is running out of a lot of minerals needed for the new technologies. Even copper demand might exceed supply this year already with very predictable consequences. To just supply electrical Vehicles in the near future the power grids in many areas have to be doubled or tripled, something that is unachievable for a lot of reasons. What oil producing countries loose on tonnage they will easily gain on sky high prices for fossil fuel in the near future.
One thing I really wish we would find an alternative for is manufacturing oil, I work in manufacturing and we use so much oil, not for energy but for lubricant. It would be great if there was an alternative, but so far nothing works quite as well or is available. Also in the last year or so, I've switched over to using a cargo e-bike for 90%+ my commutes (charged 100% with my solar panels), and let me tell you the thrill of being able to commute without having to even think of the price of electricity or oil is exhilarating. Everyone is complaining about oil/gas prices and I'm zipping by on sunlight collected in my yard. It's hard for me to even imagine things like the gas crisis from the 1970s and how people literally thought they wouldn't be able to get to work because oil wasn't available. We just have so many great options for alternatives now... solar panels, batteries, hybrid systems, LEDs, etc... future is great! Let's hit peak oil!
that is why we will never really stop producing oil, its too useful. the sad part is that we basically burned all the easily accessible oil, leaving us only with the ones that are only profitable because of subsidies. so I'm not sure how the plastic, lubricant, and other oil industries will look like if we completely switch our energy source.
@danilooliveira6580 I came from a place where there wasn't much plastics so I knew what it looked like. We used glass bottles, wood, and natural fibers.
@@solconcordia4315 a lot of things you use every day use oil products, its not just single use plastics. a LOT of it can be replaced by bio alternatives, but petroleum will always be useful.
If we do the maths, a barrel of oil generates 1700 kWh and just a kilo of Uranium-235 generates 24000000 KWh. Nuclear energy and transitions to fusion should also be researched and massified. Is way more efficient and clean way to generate power.
Peak oil is long since passed if you consider per capita numbers. It peaked above 5 barrels per capita per year in the 70-s of the XX century. Then it dropped to 4 barrels per capita per year and had been more or less stable since.
@@DBGE001 fracking has even created an even higher peak in 2018, we're on a plateau since then, noticable decrease of availability of oil might happen aroud 2030, some people even think in the next couple of years.
@@DBGE001 fracking is a more intensive process, slower and expensive way to get oil... not a bottomless oil well or a novel solution. The right question here is whether it's viable or sensible for us to continue using oil at an increasing rate that is needed to sustain the expected rate of global development. Simply no. Not economically, not environmentally. The plateau cannot feed a rising exponential demand and this gap is what's glitching the world economy repeatedly.
The world likely won't run out of oil, but it will run out of easily accessible oil. This will massively increase the cost of continued oil use, unless we move toward renewables or nuclear.
All resources are finite. Seeking new energy sources should be a never ending pursuit but it should be the free market that gets us there not bureaucrats and activists.
@@jocko1283 There has never been a greater ratio between consumption and known reserves in history. We are awash in oil and we're finding it everywhere.
@@bellakrinkle9381 Depends how you are defining lifestyle. Go check out stats for 1960. Everybody faired worse, right across the globe by almost any metric you care to imagine.
I think it is cute how folks say solar is cheaper than coal, but coal is base load, and solar is intermittent. It's like saying apples are cheaper than apple pie. Solar panels are cheap enough, lets talk about solar panels + sufficient batteries to have the same number of 9's of reliability.
Yes exactly. I have a house, I can generate electricity much more cheaply with a solar system than I can with a diesel generator (back of the envelope calculation, about 12c vs about 80c), however while a solar system without batteries or a generator backup is useful during the day, its not much good if I'm late home from work and want to heat some food up in the microwave or have some lights on during the night, so really the cost comparison is generator plus diesel vs solar plus batteries plus generator plus a lot less diesel, and thats probably a lot closer than the first comparison especially if I add a small battery and auto start/stop to the generator equation so it doesn't have to run 24/7 for small loads like a NAS or fridge.
Base load is very important indeed. But there are many ways to provide the base load : nuclear, geothermal (assuming we'll develop the technology to harvest geothermal energy in non-volcanic areas)
YAAAAY thank you for the new narrator!!! I've unfortunately had such a hard time understanding the Indian accent of the usual narrator! And please never add clips in other languages with subtitles, I am only listening, not looking at the screen! This video was great!
Renewables are intermittent. As she noted in the video there is a ways to go on storage. The IEA has stats on how much is used for transportation so look them up. Oil is only part of the CO2 problem and transportation is a small part overall.
Renewable energy is not cheaper. They are heavily subsidized by "cheap fossil energy". If you do the mining, manufacturing, transport, basic science needed for installinga windturbine or solar panel without the fossil support, then guess if this woudl be cheap or not.
@veny9213 Weird, my 10 335 watt solar PV panels have consistently worked to produce 6,000 kilowatt hours a year since 2015. Wind, solar PV, hydro and batteries do indeed work...we just need more everywhere and better integration.
I laughed when she got to the “and that’s why investing in renewable is a smart idea.” That was only reason they produced this: Germany has invested a trillion dollars into renewables.
The issue isn't whether we run out of oil, but rather that we run out of cheap, accessible oil. When a barrel of oil requires the equivalent of 90% of a barrel of oil to produce there is 90% less energy (power) for everything else for which we need power. The US shale boom is all but over. It's barely profitable and its decline curve, without highly expensive and exponentially growing drill rates, is steep. This episode misleads by ignoring these and other crucial aspects of global oil production.
In country South Australia I’m noticing significant increase in petrol stations, even old ones are being expanded and modernised. So the renewable argument doesn’t seem right. If petrol gas companies are spending money on infrastructure here then their counting on still being around for the long term?
@@another_turtle hopefully they’ll be able to maintain their existence on food etc as cost of living is bringing issues now and might affect their bottom line.
Unfortunately the decision makers are Boomers who refuse to stop working and believe in the fossil fuel industry, and that it will never fade... In their lifetime they may just see renewables eclipse coal and electricity eclipse fossil fuel
Australia will be one of the last countries to electrify. Batteries do not like high temps, we have them, battery vehicles are OK in the city but less good at long distance, we have plenty of distance. I dont think they will stop building petrol stations here until Europe is 85% electric vehicles.
Nice video. Does not state strongly enough the pairing of renewables and battery technology. Paired with batteries, renewables have killed coal and is cutting down fossil fuels even further. Battery Peaker plants have been replacing fossil fuels. Proven technology helping speed up renewable adoption.
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Oil is humanity's major addition, so we should definitely practice moderation and not become junkies out of it. No resource is forever and will one day run off, so we need to as species learn how to diversify energy and raw material resources and not depend on single one. More variety gives us higher chance to adjust to what works in times of crisis or when one resource runs out. This black gold is a great gift which was formed for millions of years, so we should not waste and consume it all like it's going to be forever plentiful. Also less dependent we r, better for us and for our health as well as environment. No matter how much we need it oil is still toxic, that's why nature and earth store it deep underground.
Can also recommend a talk (or lecture) by Al Bartlett, it's on TH-cam and a bit over an hour long. It covers exponential growth and finite resources and will give anyone the necessary tools to properly understand and think about questions like peak oil.
Yes, we are running out of oil, just a lot slower than predicted. It’s not a sharp peak, it’s a plateau, and now it’s declining at a barely noticeable pace. And the more oil is substituted by technologies like electric cars, the slower we are running out of oil.
@@haysjack6818 … and nuclear power. And wind. And solar. And water…. All of it mixed together. And the amount of the various independents varies with the price - solar is much cheaper than coal and natural gas, so we can expect it’s share to grow, while coal declines, and natural gas turns into sort of stopgap energy for the times when there is not enough sun and wind.
Remember people, oil is still needed to make fuel for mining machines to mine the minerals to manufacture solar panels, wind turbines, hydro power stations.. just my opinion.
One thing to note: Hubbert was not the first to predict peak oil. In fact, there are records of people predicting a peak in oil a *half century* prior. Even in the early 1900s, this was a concern. We've known since the beginning that oil is finite, we just don't know how much there is. Turns out there's likely enough oil that we can all but destroy our ecosystem before we use it all up.
@@billrentz9133 having a 99% reduction overnight in oil(and other fossil fuels) consumption with nothing to replace it with, life will not be as pleasant as it is now. sure if it is replaced with green alternatives, i'm all for it.
Is that what you call going back to the dark ages "not as pleasant"? There are no green alternatives. More power is generated on earthy by burning wood and cow shit than wind and solar after spending trillions on "renewables".@@stijn2644
The modern world and the safety and prosperity it provides comes with a cost. Rational people embrace an environmental cost/benefit analysis. Hospitals are incredibly destructive to the environment. Should we ban them?
There will always be a demand for oil for the production of plastics and other petrochemicals, it's only a small fraction (pun intended) of the crude product that's actually used for energy and transportation.
Big Oil oil is very much betting on plastic. And it is hard to solve the plastic pollution problem...Check out our piece "Is bioplastic the „better“ plastic?" here 👉 th-cam.com/video/-_eGOyAiNIQ/w-d-xo.html.
The US EIA says 66% of oil consumed goes to transportion in 2022. Even the OECD says almost half of oil production went to cars and trucks in 2022. If avaition, rail, and marine industries were added, it would be almost 66%.
Plastic can be produced from plants ☘️🌵 And so can oil be. Also oil can be derived from plastics. We simply don't do it cause it's cheaper to extract it from the ground.
No matter when it happens... Relying on a finite nonrenewable resource with ever increasing price and diminishing availability is simply idiotic! - We are currently burning 90-110 million barrels of oil per DAY. - Fossil fuels are the reason for almost all conflicts and wars in the world right now. - 7-8 million deaths per year are linked to air pollution from burning fossil fuel. - The Saudis are currently cooking up a plan to build roads in Africa and are partnering with Toyota to sell gas vehicles just to boost oil demand and profits. - The petrol industry generates $10 Billion in profits per DAY and receives $11 Million in SUBSIDIES per MINUTE! ... also deforestation, oil spills, pollution of air and ground water, political corruption, global puppet governments, poverty and so on. The sooner we drastically reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, the better for all of us. It's not about "the planet"... our planet does not care, it will continue to exist. What is in danger is the fragile ecosystem we all depend on.
@@veny9213 They could always take free money from the banks that support them, or subsidies from the US government... and search for more. But it's at the expense of taxpayer's money, nature, ground water and our health. Oil companies are spending billions to search for oil in all sorts of places. At the end of the day, it is all finite as this is a resource that takes tens of thousands of years to form. Even if we use everything our planet has to offer... there are only about 50 years of it... at most. If we don't die from pollution and heatwaves before then.
@@veny9213 As much as I would like to, it has not. Reserves are just something you keep for when the demand is higher than production or if prices go up. Or to keep a stockpile in case of war. A country's reserves go up and down in volume all the time. Fun fact - At the start of the pandemic, all of the reserves were so full (no one was using it) that the price of crude oil went below zero - They paid you for storing it. They started storing it in tankers and just docked them at various ports. Oil use HAS to be drastically reduced in order for us to survive.
Oil is no where near running out; Canada has vast deposits and Australia has just proved a reserve to equal the Saudis, while Venezuela could drown their country in the stuff.
The idea that demand for oil will peak in 2030 is nuts. Renewables are a sliver of total energy output today and will not grow to over 50% in 6 years. We may think it's "easy" to ditch your gas car, just as one example, but only wealthy people can do that. Most people are going to hang on to their gas cars for the next 6 years. If countries in the EU plan to make sales of new gas cars illegal by 2030 (some are) that won't effect the cars people already have. Look at the cars outside: they're almost all gas cars. And then there's industry! Running on fossils! Not changing in 6 years!
I don't think I've ever been particularly concerned about oil or gas running out. Those predictions seemed to discount human ingenuity and technological development. Was horizontal directional drilling, MWD/LWD even a thing when Hubbert predicted peak oil? The fall off in demand is far more forseeable, given the advances in renewables and energy efficiency. I reckon we're going to end up leaving a lot of hydrocarbons in the ground, but equally we're not going to stop using them any time soon. There are too many use cases and industrial processes that rely on gas in particular for it to disappear in the short to medium term.
@@urbanistgod Small ones in Texas maybe because they are borderline economic when running well and no one wants to maintain them without production for years.
Despite all the talk about renewable energy sources, oil companies are recording ever higher profits. I thought the video would answer the question from its title!
We do address how the concern now has changed into a plateu in demand instead of supply. But that will not come overnight, as OPEC predicts that oil demand will not peak until after 2035. And in the mean time big oil is still betting on the demand for fossil fuels. 🌚
@@DWPlanetA I expected the video to talk about (in)accurate estimates of oil reserves. But that is obviously not a topic for this green-optimistic channel.🙂
@@DWPlanetA Some people think that the problem will disappear when the oil reserves are exhausted. Earlier estimates about that moment turned out to be incorrect, i.e. there is still enough oil. I don't know what the current reserve estimates are. And will they ever be exhausted. And I don't think there is enough oil because less is being consumed. In fact, instead of talking about a slower INCREASE in emissions, an increase in renewable sources, it would be better to say whether the consumption (and thus production) of oil is globally DECREASING?
It wouldn't matter if the oil did run out. We can convert coal and natural gas into oil through catalytic processes. And we can use nucler hydrogen for the coal hydrogenation, which will imcrease the yield by 27%. And we can gasify crop residue, municipal solid waste, and sewage sludge and hydrogenate them to make even more oil.
There's more to it than just raw supply of crude. Also, both coal and natural gas require their own expensive extraction and processing themselves and they're already allocated in their own supply chains. So, we would need even more of it to be extracted to scale up those catalytic processes. Then if you're talking about e-fuels, the very high cost of that process coupled with its excruciating slow production rate make that process infeasible. E-fuels still requires *tons of energy* to drive the chemical process in reverse: from base CO₂, H₂O → hydrogen into various hydrocarbon molecules. So where will this energy need to come from? It needs to be come from renewables because you can't use natural fossil fuels to make synthetic fossil fuels and call that sustainable. Thus e-fuels will just will *add* to more renewables growth and other non-fossil fuel sources (nuclear, geo, etc). Then that will just drive the global markets _further_ away from fossil fuels in terms of percentages and renewables investment. Furthermore, burning carbon fuels (natural or synthetic) still clogs up our cities and atmosphere with toxic smog like NOₓ SOₓ, BTX, CO, nano sized particulates
there is plenty of fertile land in the world, enough to feed trillions of people. if they need that land to plant food they can just move the solar panels, because unlike oil drilling that can contaminate many acres of land and turn it impossible to grow food, solar panels are just sitting there and can be easily moved.
We have begun to bulldoze farmland, forests, jungles, meadows, deserts and even mountain sides to lay hectares of useless solar panels. This represents unprecedented and permanent plant and animal habitat destruction. I thought that this was what we were trying to avoid.
I call Bull, you didn't mention that since 1990 to now the world's population has grown from 5.3 Billion to 8+ billion and that people in third world countries are adopting western lifestyles and consuming more getting cars buying more eating more it takes cargo ships trains and trucks to move all that stuff around the globe.. think of all the demand for oil.. but I do appreciate a positive spin on it seeming every one else clearly thinks we are past peak oil production.
Crude oil never run out, because the earth core keep on producing it, while the glove keeping it's journey orbiting the sun. The problem being was if these crude oil don't suck, it find it's way to flee it insert even at the smallest crack beneath and the volcanos are multiply because of it heat pressure.
Not all oil is used for transport and not all transport can use electricity. Second, it all oil reserves cost the same. The Middle East has the cheapest oil production cost in the world, and they will be able to monetize their oil for decades to come. The 40 years reserve projection is built on a mix of all world crude, and the more expensive, less prolific reserve will call quits within the next 20 years.
I wonder what role oil plays for mother earth underneath the surface..🤔. I have never come across such a research.. All I know is what oil can do for us above the surface. Can DW cover on this aspect as well ?
I have been anticipating a collision between the fossil fuel narrative and renewable energy for several years now. I think we're seeing it unfold in real time now.
Most likely a peak oil demand will not happen for 2 simple reasons: there are an extra 1 billion people that will try to get a middle class energy intensive lifestyle in the next decade in India and Africa; A decrease in coal consumption due to pressure to slow climate change will result in extra demand for oil. Renewables new yearly installed capacity is still around 7X less then needed to replace both coal and oil to have a peak oil demand. Is just not going to happen under a profit driven market.
too little too late, they are just afraid and will not extend it to the mases because it will lower the standard of living In EU we now have a big push for renewable because of energy prices and security. At best it will push out coal sooner. CO2 price is close to 50Euro and has no effect
Investing in renewables is not a good idea...they are not profitable. This is why large energy companies are divesting from their renewable investments. Until they become profitable the green transition will be in limbo.
I am doing everything I can to get my family off of fossil fuels. Starting Monday, our electrician will begin connecting our geothermal system and the transition from our oil boiler will be complete. I got my wife to give up her giant SUV and we're an EV family now. The next step is solar panels. My dream is to have all of our electricity needs covered by renewables. My oil company called me about a month ago and said they noticed I hadn't called for a delivery in a while and would give me a 5% discount if I bought oil from them right now. I told the lady, sorry, we're switching to geo. She was quiet! I've never liked being reliant on fossil fuels and having my budget impacted by some dictator half way around the world deciding they want to start a war. The quicker we get off of fossil fuels (or at least limit their use) the better for the planet.
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Too many simplistic assertions in this article to address here. I suggest the authors look at some of the work being done by Nate Hagen on energy blindness.
@@tsg2009 I mean that we are not going to be able to replace our current dependence on oil in under 40 years, and running out before we figure out alternatives would be catastrophic.
@@tsg2009 We're not just talking about electricity production. We use fossil fuels for far more than that, and no there are no simple solutions to these which can be implemented and proliferated globally in such a short time frame.
"No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores. No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it. This universal truth applies to all systems. Energy, like time, flows from past to future"(2017).
@josemercado3063Humanity wishes Rudolf Clausius has said it this way, in 1854 or before the genius died. Rudolf Clausius stopped short of concluding that "Energy, like time, flows from past to future" (2017). I he didn't stop, he would have saved a little bit of fossil fuel reserves - rather than becoming savagely exploited to the ground - like no tomorrow. How humanity unlucky Rudolf Clausius has not said it this way, in 1854 or before the genius died.
It's a great video. There is a timing issue for want of a better name. Look at BP. They seem to be backing away from investing in renewables, because ATM oil is making more money ( at least for oil companies). My guess is the oil companies will be more like Kodak. Disappear suddenly after not taking new technology threats seriously
Wind and Solar account for 3% of world energy consumption. Fossil fuels account for 80% of world energy consumption. Oil 31%, Coal 27%, Natural Gas 23%. Solar and wind energy are only cheaper than natural gas or coal in producing electricity when you leave out the cost of storage or the cost of fossil fuel electrical generating plants needed to produce electricity at night or when there is no or little wind. The world and the US are currently benefiting from oil and gas produced in North America from fracking. This is unlikely to last much more than a decade, after which oil production from fracking will fall. The only region that will be left with ample oil reserves will be OPEC, and possibly Russia. Electrical cars currently account for 1% of the world fleet of passenger cars. Electric vehicules account for 0% of trucks, construction equipment, farming equipment, busses. Over 90% of train traffic in North America is diesel powered, and 90% of the North American rail network is not electrified. Aviation and shipping can not be electrified. Chemicals, fertilizers, pesticides, plastics, asphalt, medicines, clothing, oils, paints, adhesives are all derived from oil. There is not a single product we use today that does not require fossil fuels in many different forms to be manufactured, from extracting the raw materials, transforming them, assembling them, shipping and packing. Hot water and heating are overwhelmingly still produced from burning fossil fuels. If the International Energy Agency is correct in predicting that there is another 40 years of oil supply available, then that means that the world will start to experience shortages far sooner. Oil production will not continue going full tilt until the last drop is extracted. This means that anyone younger than 55 will experience increasingly massive oil shortages in their lifetime. Despite DW and Germany's exercise in green washing, 80% of Germany's energy consumption still comes from fossil fuels.
This does not answer a question. Well, i know the answer. Nobody knows. No oil producer will tell you and is not telling anyone what they have left. We might as well run out tomorrow. There is no reliable data.
There is a lot of geopolitics on petrochemical industry, for example Venezuela had the world's largest proven crude oil reserves 17% of global reserves, but the gate keepers of fossil industry ensure it is kept in state of political and economic instability.
Got a point there...I'm wondering why US has economic sanctions placed upon Venezuela....which is a big reason with those people coming to the border. It's ECONOMICS that will solve that problem...not building a stupid fence. 🇺🇸
@@JusticeAlwaysimagine poring billions and billions into fracking infrastructure as an US investor and some third world country is threatening to flood the market with cheap premium black gold! That is nothing more and nothing less than a threat to "American interests" and "national security". Sanctions it will be!
@DWPlanetA: Very informative presentation, however let see renewable energy on OECD countries which is 25 Exajoule on 2022 this has saved around 11 mm BOE/d fossil fuels based on heat energy, or every year around 0.5 mm BOE/d. As the result on these countries demand has been flat for hydrocarbons. Demand flat is as the result of "tighten belt" policies on these countries which increase prices of energy and goods which acerbate the wellbeing. So these policies shows there is no Peak demand on oil and other hydrocarbons, the world has shortage supply and OPEC countries may increase production but they can not increase reserves, so they do not have interest to increase production. Better for them is increasing production. So be prepared always shrink the economy or accelerate investment on renewable energies which are intermittent and need huge investment on storing. Be happy.
6:00 Wow, that's a very hopeful graph. Not like the ones you see from all those geophysicists with us going down the steep slope of the bell oil curve. Another "technology will save us!" video.
Please can you explain why you think it's necessary to have intrusive "music" playing in the background through most of your video. It's distracting, makes it difficult to hear what people are saying and detracts from your message.
I doubt that we will "run out" of oil. New technology will simultaneously increase the amount of oil we can extract; while simultaneously creating new and cheaper forms of energy that are cheaper than oil.
Sure you know your stuff. But will you tell us you did all the global calculations? Hubbart linearisation, statistics? Or bottom up calculations. Don't get me wrong. But being an ingenieur doesn't make you automatically an expert in global supply.
What do you think about the end of oil? When do you think it will come, if ever?
The West will literally never give up oil unless & until the billionaire ruling class who calls all the shots is finally overthrown & our horrific capitalist system is abolished for good
The alternative of course is that we all just kind of collectively decide to do nothing while the U.S. empire relentlessly burns even more oil to fuel its military industrial complex in a desperate attempt to stave off its inevitable collapse, wreaking even more ecological destruction around the world than it already does & ultimately leaving the planet uninhabitable for generations to come
Fingers crossed we get our shit together 🤞😬
A fossil fuel future will drastically change our climate and environment. We need fossil fuels now in order to manufacture our renewable energy infrastructure but once sufficient renewable power sources are in place (hopefully, soon) we need to stop CO2 production.
No of course we will never run out of anything on our finite sphere. Especially human stupidity though.
I originally left a comment here a few hours ago & now it's mysteriously gone, but thankfully I saved it so I can post it here again-
The West will literally never give up oil unless & until the billionaire ruling class who calls all the shots is finally overthrown & our horrific capitalist system is abolished for good
The alternative of course is that we all just kind of collectively decide to do nothing while the U.S. empire relentlessly burns even more oil to fuel its military industrial complex in a desperate attempt to stave off its inevitable collapse, wreaking even more ecological destruction around the world than it already does & ultimately leaving the planet uninhabitable for generations to come Fingers crossed we get our shit together 🤞😬
You can grow plants to make oil.
Production of CONVENTIONAL oil did indeed peak in 2005 and has been going sideways even since. UNCONVENTIONAL (Tar sands/deepwater/heavy) oil bought us a few years more. Then in 2014, due to 0% interest rates, shale oil became possible for a few years more. We're down to one big shale oil/frakking field in Texas, and when thats gone, we're in trouble. Most of the rest of the world cant do shale oil.
Nailed it.
When the Permian starts its decline, get ready for $100+oil
And yes agree you nailed it
Yep! And check out Art Berman who is sounding the alarm on declines in shale plays. They are declining faster than predicted, likely because they drilled wells too close and they are animalizing each other.
About 1/3 of oil in the U.S. was removed by old technology, an additional 1/3 of oil can be retrieved using fracking and horizontal drilling which means there is as much oil available as was already produced.
idk if we're running out of oil, but we're sure as shit running out of planet
We are running out of oil but it's a moot point because the human race is now threatened with certain near term extinction as a result of building a world that runs on oil.
More like we are running out of stable ecosystem. We already destroyed so much.
And overpopulation isn't that much of a problem. All developed countries and China are facing a population implosion. This fast decline is a big societal problem.
@@andrea-dawn *due to the horrifically unsustainable practices required for our capitalist system to function
@@haifutter4166population implosion is a problem you say?
I have never thought there's a single negative impact of a reducing population. I would like to hear that side from you.
If we take away the idea that human Economy is supposed to keep growing forever, by being hinged on having more consumers the following year than the previous year, I'm yet to hear if there's a single negative consequences of a reducing population
@@mugumyapaultheafricannomad9488 Just read about it. What do you think how healthcare systems and geriatric nursing should keep up with a rapidly declining population? How will pensions and healthcare insurances survive when the disbalance between elderly and the workforce is too big. Degrowth isn't the problem. It only becomes a problem, when it happens too fast.
Demographic changes and challenges where basic part of my schools curriculum.
To ponder the idea of stimulating increased demand for oil in an era of runaway green house effect is psychotic.
@petterbirgersson4489
Many countries' peoples tend to put psychotic ones in charge. It's basic human societal organizational nature to view psychos as fearless leaders. Fearlessness may actually be a manifestation of a "don't-give-a-hoot" character.
beleiving in "GHE" is psychotic, get your boooster already
Guess what, Indians and Africans want to own cars and travel by airplane just like we do. And one single airline in the US owns as many airplanes as there are in the entire country of India. Obviously demand will increase.
You don't think the Indian middle class should be given the chance to travel by airplane to the same extent as we do? You don't think they want to travel by airplane as much as we do? That is incredibly racist
Lies again? Gun Oil USD SGD
Conventional oil, which is what they drilled in Hubert’s day, did hit a production peak in 2006. All growth in oil production since then has been in shale oil and tar sands.
Back in the day we were worried oil would run out, now I'm scared it won't.
Wow this may blow your mind little bro@@nvs0p , but yes I actually care more about having a planet to live on than your air travel or imaginary space travel (you'll never afford it). And it's hard to do any of that anyway, if you don't have a planet to live one, you know?
@@nvs0pOf course its a roblox kid 😂
Bro thought he’ll join the elites in the space shuttle
@@nvs0p Probably we do not need a "life without oil". If we change to live as we did in the 50s, with a more equal distribution of resources, most likely we would have a reasonable living quality without destroying ourselves
@@nvs0psynthetic fuel can work. Water and electricity goes in, kerosene comes out
@DSHK-wb5cn ok I deleted my comments bc what I said was wrong, there are many alternatives and idk what I was thinking when I was typing this
It just blows me away to see so many people here in Georgia driving huge gas guzzling trucks /SUVs.... just wastefully burning the chit out of fuel....
I'm even more blown away by seeing people drive SUVs and even pickup trucks here in Poland, especially in the cities.
Shared Aptera would be a total opposite.There are some cases where it is justified to use a heavy vehicle while moving heavy loads.
I’ve never seen any of these “yee yee” trucks in Oklahoma hauling anything. They got big ole wheels and for what?!
@@justynawisniewska1213morons
Yea and SUVs and such are much more dangerous at killing people than smaller cars @@justynawisniewska1213
Hey, DW, you should do a video on energy blindness
Energy blindness is when battery technology is scaling up 100x faster than fossil fuels did and nobody even really makes notice.
@@ApjoozThat's not it at all. We also don't have the mineral wealth to transition our energy infrastructure & use to battery/ renewable generation. Simon Michaux did a feasibility analysis for the Finnish government & found that it wasn't possible. He produced a few digestible presentations on TH-cam if you want to educate yourself.
@@davisbradford7438 Don't even try with that guy. Nothing matters... we can have limitless energy. This is the type of person like Doomberg.
@Apjooz
Battery technology has improved a lot but internal combustion engine is still the mainstay of automobile propulsion technologies.
Electric cars are still expensive and can't be charged quickly, widely, and retain its charge for long. It must be continually be charged and discharged to avoid the batteries conking out quickly.
Internal combustion car engines don't have this continually plugged-in and discharged requirement. Imagine a new COVID-like pandemic striking again and we can't go outside but need to keep our cars ready to go.
Lookup Nate Hagens
The stone age didn’t end for a lack of stones
Energy is different. We always optimize energy consumption naturally. The stone age ended because we learned how to store energy.
😂
More accurately, to exploit solar energy stored in the Earth’s crust over hind of millions of years as coal, gas and oil.
Even stones we use more then ever. Biomass 2/3 unsustainable, coal, oil, gas. We use all of them more then ever.
No sign of slowing down.
So?
Oil has peaked already and crude oil is getting lighter, meaning less diesel in each barrel. Our civilization runs on diesel.
One very important very rapid trend driving slowing oil demand is EV adoption in China. The boom has been insanely rapid EVs have gone from 5% of car sales in 2020, to 35% in 2023, and there are realistic forecasts it'll grow to over 50% by 2024. China alone makes up ~14% of global oil demand. Assuming the transport sector is around half of that, then this trend _alone_ is a major downward pressure on global oil demand. When you consider that cheap Chinese EVs are driving adoption in other countries as well, the effect magnifies.
This highlights a different issue - people keep talking about "China is collapsing - look at the drop in exports". yeah, China is transitioning to supplying it own internal market of 400 million middle class. THATS why its not exporting.
The thing that annoys me is - china announced this in 2020. So the commentators are either lying or too lazy to even read the announcements
its counter intuitive to think that even if you need fossil fuels to power EVs, they will still take A LOT less fossil fuels than a single ICE. and China is expanding their renewables and nuclear faster than any country. I think it helps feeling in their lungs the impact of air polution, and I'm sure being an authocracy that don't answer to olygarchs like the US also help.
@danilooliveira6580
We Columbians generally have catalytic converters in our internal combustion engine cars. That avoids most of the pollution coming from our cars.
Yes, America the beautiful has fairly clean air relative to the Third World countries despite our driving a lot more distance. China could've mandated catalytic converters and cleaned up city air a long time ago.
We’ve never actually used less of an energy source in our history. Bill Rees, the ecologist that first conceived of the carbon-footprint, has some great lectures on TH-cam about overshoot and what it means for our species. Fair warning: you can’t unlearn what he can teach you. In one if his lectures he notes that, despite making numerous transitions from one energy source to the next, we’ve only ever added. For instance, the human species burns more biomass today than it did in the 19th century. Thinking green energy will save us is obtuse. Saw somebody else mention Michaeux - also great lectures on the math behind a renewable transition. 2024 - 2025 is the projected shale peak, and then watch out. The importance of oil to our society will become apparent to anybody paying attention.
Coal is already dying, its less than 10% of americas energy mix and will be gone soon, simply because cheaper options exist. This has happened with plenty of other commoddities like mercury. The idea of overshoot has an even worse track record of failure than peak oil. Thomas malthus predicted in the 1700s that the human population would expand beyond the ability of food production to support it by the mid 1800s.
The reason companies/nations, are pumping as much as they can is because they need it out of the ground and payed for before the market collapses.
They know full well what's coming and could probably give you a year, month, day, and time when the market is expected to collapse.
That has led to two opposing strategies, the one I outlined above, and another which is cutting supply now to get top dollar for what is sold.
This cutting supply is why prices are rising right now, otherwise they'd be falling like a stone rolling down a mountain side.
There was a mention around 0:58 that "before 2000, electric vehicles were nearly unheard of." That is not quite true. I remember reading that in the 1930s (in the US) there were a lot of electric cars around! But I guess two things happened - battery technology did not keep up with IC engines, and, the oil lobby won!
I think nearly unheard of accurately describes the fame of electric cars
I’d say the average persons outlook was that it’s not possible, I think that’s what she meant
" NEARLY " unheard
You are remembering wrong. Just off by about 20 years. Prior to widespread adoption of mass produced internal combustion, at the start of the century, prototype electric cars were in serious competition. But by the 1930s that wasn't the case, and it wasn't because of some grand oil lobby. In other areas, electricafaction was proceeding rapidly. It's just that without dramatic improvements in battery technology, for transportation, battery powered vehicles weren't competitive. You might have a stronger argument if you focused on the destruction of the trolleys and why America didn't go with electrified rail transport. But I think that is more vintage 1950s.
The electric starter and muffler won, that's what made the difference.
"40 years of oil supply'. Well, the stuff actually has to be explored, financed, organized, regulated, pumped out of the ground, refined and reaching the customers. Here some fact: After several severe cuts by OPEC and "failing demand" oil prices are by about $ 90.00. Nice cheap. I see it daily on the gas station and in the grocery stores. US shale oil production might peak within 2 or 3 years and then decline or likelier become much more costly. Meanwhile the world is running out of a lot of minerals needed for the new technologies. Even copper demand might exceed supply this year already with very predictable consequences. To just supply electrical Vehicles in the near future the power grids in many areas have to be doubled or tripled, something that is unachievable for a lot of reasons. What oil producing countries loose on tonnage they will easily gain on sky high prices for fossil fuel in the near future.
Aluminum can be used as a stand in for electrical wires and motor windings
One thing I really wish we would find an alternative for is manufacturing oil, I work in manufacturing and we use so much oil, not for energy but for lubricant. It would be great if there was an alternative, but so far nothing works quite as well or is available.
Also in the last year or so, I've switched over to using a cargo e-bike for 90%+ my commutes (charged 100% with my solar panels), and let me tell you the thrill of being able to commute without having to even think of the price of electricity or oil is exhilarating. Everyone is complaining about oil/gas prices and I'm zipping by on sunlight collected in my yard. It's hard for me to even imagine things like the gas crisis from the 1970s and how people literally thought they wouldn't be able to get to work because oil wasn't available. We just have so many great options for alternatives now... solar panels, batteries, hybrid systems, LEDs, etc... future is great! Let's hit peak oil!
that is why we will never really stop producing oil, its too useful. the sad part is that we basically burned all the easily accessible oil, leaving us only with the ones that are only profitable because of subsidies. so I'm not sure how the plastic, lubricant, and other oil industries will look like if we completely switch our energy source.
Rendered lard is a good lubricant
@danilooliveira6580
I came from a place where there wasn't much plastics so I knew what it looked like. We used glass bottles, wood, and natural fibers.
@@solconcordia4315 a lot of things you use every day use oil products, its not just single use plastics. a LOT of it can be replaced by bio alternatives, but petroleum will always be useful.
@@danilooliveira6580by combining hydrogen and carbon together with electrolysis
Just one more thing… a barrel of oil costs $80 - $90 bucks right now, and can perform the equivalent of 4.5 years of human labour.
If we do the maths, a barrel of oil generates 1700 kWh and just a kilo of Uranium-235 generates 24000000 KWh.
Nuclear energy and transitions to fusion should also be researched and massified. Is way more efficient and clean way to generate power.
@@erianpena2908 but you only get electricity from a nuclear plant. Right now, we do not need more electricity
3 of those years will be lost as waste heat
Peak oil is long since passed if you consider per capita numbers. It peaked above 5 barrels per capita per year in the 70-s of the XX century. Then it dropped to 4 barrels per capita per year and had been more or less stable since.
What was the world population in 1970s ? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
What your report completely ignores are prosecutions against oil companies by the EU and others. This will be disastrous for them.
We are already past the peak oil mark. It wouldn't be announced blaringly on TV. But the economic indicators are undeniable 2008, 2015, 2024...
exactly, but fracking has made the peak more of a plateau.
@@DBGE001 fracking has even created an even higher peak in 2018, we're on a plateau since then, noticable decrease of availability of oil might happen aroud 2030, some people even think in the next couple of years.
@@DBGE001 fracking is a more intensive process, slower and expensive way to get oil... not a bottomless oil well or a novel solution. The right question here is whether it's viable or sensible for us to continue using oil at an increasing rate that is needed to sustain the expected rate of global development. Simply no. Not economically, not environmentally. The plateau cannot feed a rising exponential demand and this gap is what's glitching the world economy repeatedly.
The world likely won't run out of oil, but it will run out of easily accessible oil. This will massively increase the cost of continued oil use, unless we move toward renewables or nuclear.
All resources are finite. Seeking new energy sources should be a never ending pursuit but it should be the free market that gets us there not bureaucrats and activists.
The world most certainly will run out of oil 50 to 60 years tops
If everyone adapted a 1960 lifestyle, we'd be around a lot longer. Care to place a bet?
@@jocko1283 There has never been a greater ratio between consumption and known reserves in history. We are awash in oil and we're finding it everywhere.
@@bellakrinkle9381 Depends how you are defining lifestyle. Go check out stats for 1960. Everybody faired worse, right across the globe by almost any metric you care to imagine.
I think it is cute how folks say solar is cheaper than coal, but coal is base load, and solar is intermittent. It's like saying apples are cheaper than apple pie. Solar panels are cheap enough, lets talk about solar panels + sufficient batteries to have the same number of 9's of reliability.
Yes exactly. I have a house, I can generate electricity much more cheaply with a solar system than I can with a diesel generator (back of the envelope calculation, about 12c vs about 80c), however while a solar system without batteries or a generator backup is useful during the day, its not much good if I'm late home from work and want to heat some food up in the microwave or have some lights on during the night, so really the cost comparison is generator plus diesel vs solar plus batteries plus generator plus a lot less diesel, and thats probably a lot closer than the first comparison especially if I add a small battery and auto start/stop to the generator equation so it doesn't have to run 24/7 for small loads like a NAS or fridge.
Nuclear should be our base load
Base load is very important indeed. But there are many ways to provide the base load : nuclear, geothermal (assuming we'll develop the technology to harvest geothermal energy in non-volcanic areas)
@@deepinthewoods8078I think the focus should be on pumped hydro storage in most places.
@@AusKipper1 That's another option indeed. Ideal to capture excess solar or wind power ...
YAAAAY thank you for the new narrator!!! I've unfortunately had such a hard time understanding the Indian accent of the usual narrator! And please never add clips in other languages with subtitles, I am only listening, not looking at the screen! This video was great!
If renewable energy really is cheaper than oil, why is oil used at all?
Because oil is still superior and we have some of it left. Plus, there is no way to produce something like plastic, asphalt, jet fuel etc. without it.
Renewables are intermittent. As she noted in the video there is a ways to go on storage. The IEA has stats on how much is used for transportation so look them up. Oil is only part of the CO2 problem and transportation is a small part overall.
Renewable energy is not cheaper.
They are heavily subsidized by "cheap fossil energy". If you do the mining, manufacturing, transport, basic science needed for installinga windturbine or solar panel without the fossil support, then guess if this woudl be cheap or not.
Money.
I vote we speed up the transition to...high insulation, renewables so we have more economic security when oil prices do crash from peak demand.
@veny9213 Weird, my 10 335 watt solar PV panels have consistently worked to produce 6,000 kilowatt hours a year since 2015. Wind, solar PV, hydro and batteries do indeed work...we just need more everywhere and better integration.
We haven't even begun to use oil reserves of largest capacity country i.e Venezuela's reserves at full capacity.
that will never happen because it is against American Interests aka a national security thread.
@@DBGE001 Lol. The latin invasion is pending
I laughed when she got to the “and that’s why investing in renewable is a smart idea.” That was only reason they produced this: Germany has invested a trillion dollars into renewables.
The issue isn't whether we run out of oil, but rather that we run out of cheap, accessible oil. When a barrel of oil requires the equivalent of 90% of a barrel of oil to produce there is 90% less energy (power) for everything else for which we need power.
The US shale boom is all but over. It's barely profitable and its decline curve, without highly expensive and exponentially growing drill rates, is steep.
This episode misleads by ignoring these and other crucial aspects of global oil production.
In country South Australia I’m noticing significant increase in petrol stations, even old ones are being expanded and modernised. So the renewable argument doesn’t seem right. If petrol gas companies are spending money on infrastructure here then their counting on still being around for the long term?
Fun fact gas stations don't make money from selling fuel, most of the money is made from selling things food, drinks concession etc etc
@@another_turtle hopefully they’ll be able to maintain their existence on food etc as cost of living is bringing issues now and might affect their bottom line.
Same in Perth, Western Australia. So many new petrol stations!
Unfortunately the decision makers are Boomers who refuse to stop working and believe in the fossil fuel industry, and that it will never fade... In their lifetime they may just see renewables eclipse coal and electricity eclipse fossil fuel
Australia will be one of the last countries to electrify. Batteries do not like high temps, we have them, battery vehicles are OK in the city but less good at long distance, we have plenty of distance. I dont think they will stop building petrol stations here until Europe is 85% electric vehicles.
Nice video. Does not state strongly enough the pairing of renewables and battery technology. Paired with batteries, renewables have killed coal and is cutting down fossil fuels even further. Battery Peaker plants have been replacing fossil fuels. Proven technology helping speed up renewable adoption.
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Gas is replacing coal, not renewables.
What happens to all these abandoned wells? Time to enforce some responsibility on the oil companies for end of production
Oil is humanity's major addition, so we should definitely practice moderation and not become junkies out of it. No resource is forever and will one day run off, so we need to as species learn how to diversify energy and raw material resources and not depend on single one. More variety gives us higher chance to adjust to what works in times of crisis or when one resource runs out. This black gold is a great gift which was formed for millions of years, so we should not waste and consume it all like it's going to be forever plentiful. Also less dependent we r, better for us and for our health as well as environment. No matter how much we need it oil is still toxic, that's why nature and earth store it deep underground.
We are never going to run out of oil. We did run out of cheap oil around 2004 or so. :-)
If you are interested in this topic, check out Nate Hagens or Art Berman
100%, yes. They have better info and more relevant insights than this video
@@acornlandlabsThe explanation in this video is so oversimplified.
I cannot agree more! Here's my upvote
Can also recommend a talk (or lecture) by Al Bartlett, it's on TH-cam and a bit over an hour long. It covers exponential growth and finite resources and will give anyone the necessary tools to properly understand and think about questions like peak oil.
Non-combustible lubricants, plastics, etc... aren't going anywhere. Grease has no substitute.
you can make grease from plants, in fact you can make any polymer from plants
@@DBGE001destruction of plants 😅
@@DBGE001 with a "fantastic" efficience...
Yes, we are running out of oil, just a lot slower than predicted. It’s not a sharp peak, it’s a plateau, and now it’s declining at a barely noticeable pace. And the more oil is substituted by technologies like electric cars, the slower we are running out of oil.
What do you think is used to produce the electricity for the EV's. Hint - its not pixi dust. It is Natural Gas and coal.
@@haysjack6818 … and nuclear power. And wind. And solar. And water…. All of it mixed together. And the amount of the various independents varies with the price - solar is much cheaper than coal and natural gas, so we can expect it’s share to grow, while coal declines, and natural gas turns into sort of stopgap energy for the times when there is not enough sun and wind.
@@veny9213 if this is nonsense, then what do You think is the truth?
The electric from solar and wind is not cheaper....the government's subsidy the industry
Peaking demand is not the same as declining demand. Peaking demand does not automatically mean "oversupply" or "falling prices".
We need oil to produce plastics. Solar power won't be able to produce the plastic parts that we need to build our stuff that we use.
Remember people, oil is still needed to make fuel for mining machines to mine the minerals to manufacture solar panels, wind turbines, hydro power stations.. just my opinion.
Let me give you some more attention. You are clearly lonely. Just my opinion. :-)
We hit +2°C in respect to pre-industrial average temperature!
DW= Are we running out of oil?
One thing to note: Hubbert was not the first to predict peak oil. In fact, there are records of people predicting a peak in oil a *half century* prior. Even in the early 1900s, this was a concern. We've known since the beginning that oil is finite, we just don't know how much there is. Turns out there's likely enough oil that we can all but destroy our ecosystem before we use it all up.
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@@DWPlanetALol. So random.
I think we would all be okay with a 99% decrease in oil consumption. I mean… we will run out sooner or later anyway.
yeah over a century or so, not a reduction of 99% in 10 or 20 years
I'm not ok with it and neither would you if you fully understood what your are saying.
@@billrentz9133 having a 99% reduction overnight in oil(and other fossil fuels) consumption with nothing to replace it with, life will not be as pleasant as it is now. sure if it is replaced with green alternatives, i'm all for it.
@@stijn2644 A decades long transition is far from over night. We have the ability to do it AND it would be an economic boom.
Is that what you call going back to the dark ages "not as pleasant"? There are no green alternatives. More power is generated on earthy by burning wood and cow shit than wind and solar after spending trillions on "renewables".@@stijn2644
Fracking just contaminates the ground water...
The modern world and the safety and prosperity it provides comes with a cost. Rational people embrace an environmental cost/benefit analysis. Hospitals are incredibly destructive to the environment. Should we ban them?
There will always be a demand for oil for the production of plastics and other petrochemicals, it's only a small fraction (pun intended) of the crude product that's actually used for energy and transportation.
Plastics are also made from natural gas.
Big Oil oil is very much betting on plastic. And it is hard to solve the plastic pollution problem...Check out our piece "Is bioplastic the „better“ plastic?" here 👉 th-cam.com/video/-_eGOyAiNIQ/w-d-xo.html.
The US EIA says 66% of oil consumed goes to transportion in 2022. Even the OECD says almost half of oil production went to cars and trucks in 2022. If avaition, rail, and marine industries were added, it would be almost 66%.
Plastic can be produced from plants ☘️🌵 And so can oil be. Also oil can be derived from plastics. We simply don't do it cause it's cheaper to extract it from the ground.
PLA is made from corn. You can make everything you need from plants.
No matter when it happens... Relying on a finite nonrenewable resource with ever increasing price and diminishing availability is simply idiotic!
- We are currently burning 90-110 million barrels of oil per DAY.
- Fossil fuels are the reason for almost all conflicts and wars in the world right now.
- 7-8 million deaths per year are linked to air pollution from burning fossil fuel.
- The Saudis are currently cooking up a plan to build roads in Africa and are partnering with Toyota to sell gas vehicles just to boost oil demand and profits.
- The petrol industry generates $10 Billion in profits per DAY and receives $11 Million in SUBSIDIES per MINUTE!
... also deforestation, oil spills, pollution of air and ground water, political corruption, global puppet governments, poverty and so on.
The sooner we drastically reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, the better for all of us. It's not about "the planet"... our planet does not care, it will continue to exist. What is in danger is the fragile ecosystem we all depend on.
@@veny9213 They could always take free money from the banks that support them, or subsidies from the US government... and search for more. But it's at the expense of taxpayer's money, nature, ground water and our health.
Oil companies are spending billions to search for oil in all sorts of places.
At the end of the day, it is all finite as this is a resource that takes tens of thousands of years to form. Even if we use everything our planet has to offer... there are only about 50 years of it... at most. If we don't die from pollution and heatwaves before then.
@@veny9213 As much as I would like to, it has not.
Reserves are just something you keep for when the demand is higher than production or if prices go up. Or to keep a stockpile in case of war. A country's reserves go up and down in volume all the time.
Fun fact - At the start of the pandemic, all of the reserves were so full (no one was using it) that the price of crude oil went below zero - They paid you for storing it. They started storing it in tankers and just docked them at various ports.
Oil use HAS to be drastically reduced in order for us to survive.
Oil is no where near running out; Canada has vast deposits and Australia has just proved a reserve to equal the Saudis, while Venezuela could drown their country in the stuff.
Canada's oil is tar oil and is extremely toxic.
source? aus has as much oil as the saudis?
The idea that demand for oil will peak in 2030 is nuts. Renewables are a sliver of total energy output today and will not grow to over 50% in 6 years. We may think it's "easy" to ditch your gas car, just as one example, but only wealthy people can do that. Most people are going to hang on to their gas cars for the next 6 years. If countries in the EU plan to make sales of new gas cars illegal by 2030 (some are) that won't effect the cars people already have. Look at the cars outside: they're almost all gas cars. And then there's industry! Running on fossils! Not changing in 6 years!
I don't think I've ever been particularly concerned about oil or gas running out. Those predictions seemed to discount human ingenuity and technological development. Was horizontal directional drilling, MWD/LWD even a thing when Hubbert predicted peak oil? The fall off in demand is far more forseeable, given the advances in renewables and energy efficiency. I reckon we're going to end up leaving a lot of hydrocarbons in the ground, but equally we're not going to stop using them any time soon. There are too many use cases and industrial processes that rely on gas in particular for it to disappear in the short to medium term.
All oil companies are expanding extraction . There is no end of oil.
Leave an oil well empty for 10 years and it fills back up because the earths mantel makes it continuously.
@xraylife
We'll have the jet fuel to fly you to Davos in ten years once the oil has come back and been refined. 😂
@@xraylifeWhut? Have you seen the number of wells sitting empty for decades?
@@urbanistgod Small ones in Texas maybe because they are borderline economic when running well and no one wants to maintain them without production for years.
@@xraylife What do you mean? Why wouldn’t they want to maintain something that fills back up?
Russia / Saudi Arabia/ Iran/ Venezuela/ Nigeria
those rich oil countries will never give you real data about their oil reserves
Despite all the talk about renewable energy sources, oil companies are recording ever higher profits.
I thought the video would answer the question from its title!
We do address how the concern now has changed into a plateu in demand instead of supply. But that will not come overnight, as OPEC predicts that oil demand will not peak until after 2035. And in the mean time big oil is still betting on the demand for fossil fuels. 🌚
@@DWPlanetA I expected the video to talk about (in)accurate estimates of oil reserves. But that is obviously not a topic for this green-optimistic channel.🙂
Sorry, could you elaborate on this: in which direction you think they are inaccurate towards?
@@DWPlanetA Some people think that the problem will disappear when the oil reserves are exhausted. Earlier estimates about that moment turned out to be incorrect, i.e. there is still enough oil. I don't know what the current reserve estimates are. And will they ever be exhausted. And I don't think there is enough oil because less is being consumed. In fact, instead of talking about a slower INCREASE in emissions, an increase in renewable sources, it would be better to say whether the consumption (and thus production) of oil is globally DECREASING?
It wouldn't matter if the oil did run out. We can convert coal and natural gas into oil through catalytic processes. And we can use nucler hydrogen for the coal hydrogenation, which will imcrease the yield by 27%. And we can gasify crop residue, municipal solid waste, and sewage sludge and hydrogenate them to make even more oil.
There's more to it than just raw supply of crude. Also, both coal and natural gas require their own expensive extraction and processing themselves and they're already allocated in their own supply chains. So, we would need even more of it to be extracted to scale up those catalytic processes.
Then if you're talking about e-fuels, the very high cost of that process coupled with its excruciating slow production rate make that process infeasible. E-fuels still requires *tons of energy* to drive the chemical process in reverse: from base CO₂, H₂O → hydrogen into various hydrocarbon molecules. So where will this energy need to come from? It needs to be come from renewables because you can't use natural fossil fuels to make synthetic fossil fuels and call that sustainable. Thus e-fuels will just will *add* to more renewables growth and other non-fossil fuel sources (nuclear, geo, etc). Then that will just drive the global markets _further_ away from fossil fuels in terms of percentages and renewables investment.
Furthermore, burning carbon fuels (natural or synthetic) still clogs up our cities and atmosphere with toxic smog like NOₓ SOₓ, BTX, CO, nano sized particulates
It breaks my heart to see swathes of solar panels covering such large surfaces of fertile land
there is plenty of fertile land in the world, enough to feed trillions of people. if they need that land to plant food they can just move the solar panels, because unlike oil drilling that can contaminate many acres of land and turn it impossible to grow food, solar panels are just sitting there and can be easily moved.
It breaks my heart to see such large surfaces of fertile land covered with feed crops.
@@andrea-dawn thankfully population will decline
It breaks my heart to see such large surfaces of fertile land covered in Golf Courses.
We have begun to bulldoze farmland, forests, jungles, meadows, deserts and even mountain sides to lay hectares of useless solar panels. This represents unprecedented and permanent plant and animal habitat destruction. I thought that this was what we were trying to avoid.
Changing the energy source of our cars helps a little, but the best thing would be if we reduce cars altogether.
I call Bull, you didn't mention that since 1990 to now the world's population has grown from 5.3 Billion to 8+ billion and that people in third world countries are adopting western lifestyles and consuming more getting cars buying more eating more it takes cargo ships trains and trucks to move all that stuff around the globe.. think of all the demand for oil.. but I do appreciate a positive spin on it seeming every one else clearly thinks we are past peak oil production.
Forget about our future. It doesn't exist.
Crude oil never run out, because the earth core keep on producing it, while the glove keeping it's journey orbiting the sun. The problem being was if these crude oil don't suck, it find it's way to flee it insert even at the smallest crack beneath and the volcanos are multiply because of it heat pressure.
AAAAAAHAHAHAHHAAH Funny.
Did you think that oil would last forever?
Not all oil is used for transport and not all transport can use electricity.
Second, it all oil reserves cost the same. The Middle East has the cheapest oil production cost in the world, and they will be able to monetize their oil for decades to come.
The 40 years reserve projection is built on a mix of all world crude, and the more expensive, less prolific reserve will call quits within the next 20 years.
I wonder what role oil plays for mother earth underneath the surface..🤔. I have never come across such a research.. All I know is what oil can do for us above the surface. Can DW cover on this aspect as well ?
"Based on the current reserves we have about 40 years of oil." Wow, 40 years, that's like forever.
The truth is that we stopped looking for it. There is probably much more.
Well, the bronze age ended because bronze ended, then there was a surprise.
What is the "PEAKOIL" going to be?
I have been anticipating a collision between the fossil fuel narrative and renewable energy for several years now. I think we're seeing it unfold in real time now.
Most likely a peak oil demand will not happen for 2 simple reasons: there are an extra 1 billion people that will try to get a middle class energy intensive lifestyle in the next decade in India and Africa; A decrease in coal consumption due to pressure to slow climate change will result in extra demand for oil.
Renewables new yearly installed capacity is still around 7X less then needed to replace both coal and oil to have a peak oil demand. Is just not going to happen under a profit driven market.
Carbon tax is the solution.
too little too late, they are just afraid and will not extend it to the mases because it will lower the standard of living
In EU we now have a big push for renewable because of energy prices and security. At best it will push out coal sooner. CO2 price is close to 50Euro and has no effect
@@sandelu635 Of course it is too late, but that concerns all climate measures. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t implement it.
@@Simon-dm8zv in the context of "running out of oil" even if we ignore climate change i still think we are going to have a big energy crisis by 2035
We’ll run out of coastline before we run out of oil.
OECD Countries is pseudonym for 'the distribution of natural resources would never be equal.' What will be the pseudonym for renewable energy?
Investing in renewables is not a good idea...they are not profitable. This is why large energy companies are divesting from their renewable investments. Until they become profitable the green transition will be in limbo.
I am doing everything I can to get my family off of fossil fuels. Starting Monday, our electrician will begin connecting our geothermal system and the transition from our oil boiler will be complete. I got my wife to give up her giant SUV and we're an EV family now. The next step is solar panels. My dream is to have all of our electricity needs covered by renewables. My oil company called me about a month ago and said they noticed I hadn't called for a delivery in a while and would give me a 5% discount if I bought oil from them right now. I told the lady, sorry, we're switching to geo. She was quiet!
I've never liked being reliant on fossil fuels and having my budget impacted by some dictator half way around the world deciding they want to start a war. The quicker we get off of fossil fuels (or at least limit their use) the better for the planet.
Wow, that sounds amazing! Thank you for your feedback 👌 If you enjoy videos like this one and are interested in renewable energy, subscribe to our channel! We post new videos every Friday ✨
Too many simplistic assertions in this article to address here. I suggest the authors look at some of the work being done by Nate Hagen on energy blindness.
Very true! I liked Nate's interviews with Art Berman & the Canadian Prepper. Really hoping nuclear war doesn't occur over this issue
0:55 hahaha I love that song
Thats why we are collecting all the oil in the world🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🦅🦅🦅
Only 40 years of oil?? That’s very concerning
If you mean there's still 40 years of oil left yeah that is concerning
@@tsg2009 I mean that we are not going to be able to replace our current dependence on oil in under 40 years, and running out before we figure out alternatives would be catastrophic.
@@Elliot_97 there's plenty of alternatives but the barons won't allow because they won't make as much money
@@tsg2009 We're not just talking about electricity production. We use fossil fuels for far more than that, and no there are no simple solutions to these which can be implemented and proliferated globally in such a short time frame.
@@Elliot_97 yes there is your just a sycophant
We aren’t running out of oil yet. But we are running into our of cheap oil.
"No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future"(2017).
@josemercado3063Humanity wishes Rudolf Clausius has said it this way, in 1854 or before the genius died.
Rudolf Clausius stopped short of concluding that "Energy, like time, flows from past to future" (2017).
I he didn't stop, he would have saved a little bit of fossil fuel reserves - rather than becoming savagely exploited to the ground - like no tomorrow.
How humanity unlucky Rudolf Clausius has not said it this way, in 1854 or before the genius died.
@acharya Prashant climate change activist 👏🏼
Considering the US straight up just quit looking because we have PLENTY, no.
@user-nw8zm2wu6o Yeah, it's almost like it just comes out of the ground
It's a great video. There is a timing issue for want of a better name. Look at BP. They seem to be backing away from investing in renewables, because ATM oil is making more money ( at least for oil companies).
My guess is the oil companies will be more like Kodak. Disappear suddenly after not taking new technology threats seriously
Hey Lawrence! Glad you liked our video 😀 If you want to see more videos like these, subscribe to our channel, we post new videos every Friday ✨
@DWPlanetA I have already, love the work you do.
If we only have 40 years left of oil,means we are running out of oil.
They need big vehicles to either match their egos, or maybe they need to enhance their frail egos by super-sizing their vehicle. Just guessing.
Wind and Solar account for 3% of world energy consumption.
Fossil fuels account for 80% of world energy consumption.
Oil 31%, Coal 27%, Natural Gas 23%.
Solar and wind energy are only cheaper than natural gas or coal in producing electricity when you leave out the cost of storage or the cost of fossil fuel electrical generating plants needed to produce electricity at night or when there is no or little wind.
The world and the US are currently benefiting from oil and gas produced in North America from fracking. This is unlikely to last much more than a decade, after which oil production from fracking will fall. The only region that will be left with ample oil reserves will be OPEC, and possibly Russia.
Electrical cars currently account for 1% of the world fleet of passenger cars. Electric vehicules account for 0% of trucks, construction equipment, farming equipment, busses. Over 90% of train traffic in North America is diesel powered, and 90% of the North American rail network is not electrified.
Aviation and shipping can not be electrified. Chemicals, fertilizers, pesticides, plastics, asphalt, medicines, clothing, oils, paints, adhesives are all derived from oil. There is not a single product we use today that does not require fossil fuels in many different forms to be manufactured, from extracting the raw materials, transforming them, assembling them, shipping and packing.
Hot water and heating are overwhelmingly still produced from burning fossil fuels.
If the International Energy Agency is correct in predicting that there is another 40 years of oil supply available, then that means that the world will start to experience shortages far sooner. Oil production will not continue going full tilt until the last drop is extracted. This means that anyone younger than 55 will experience increasingly massive oil shortages in their lifetime.
Despite DW and Germany's exercise in green washing, 80% of Germany's energy consumption still comes from fossil fuels.
This is tosh - peak oil is real
This does not answer a question. Well, i know the answer. Nobody knows. No oil producer will tell you and is not telling anyone what they have left. We might as well run out tomorrow. There is no reliable data.
There is a lot of geopolitics on petrochemical industry, for example
Venezuela had the world's largest proven crude oil reserves 17% of global reserves, but the gate keepers of fossil industry ensure it is kept in state of political and economic instability.
Got a point there...I'm wondering why US has economic sanctions placed upon Venezuela....which is a big reason with those people coming to the border. It's ECONOMICS that will solve that problem...not building a stupid fence.
🇺🇸
@@JusticeAlwaysimagine poring billions and billions into fracking infrastructure as an US investor and some third world country is threatening to flood the market with cheap premium black gold! That is nothing more and nothing less than a threat to "American interests" and "national security". Sanctions it will be!
@DWPlanetA: Very informative presentation, however let see renewable energy on OECD countries which is 25 Exajoule on 2022 this has saved around 11 mm BOE/d fossil fuels based on heat energy, or every year around 0.5 mm BOE/d. As the result on these countries demand has been flat for hydrocarbons. Demand flat is as the result of "tighten belt" policies on these countries which increase prices of energy and goods which acerbate the wellbeing.
So these policies shows there is no Peak demand on oil and other hydrocarbons, the world has shortage supply and OPEC countries may increase production but they can not increase reserves, so they do not have interest to increase production. Better for them is increasing production. So be prepared always shrink the economy or accelerate investment on renewable energies which are intermittent and need huge investment on storing. Be happy.
Hey there! Glad you liked our video 😀 If you want to see more like these, subscribe to our channel, we post new videos every Friday ✨
@@DWPlanetA Hey from here.If you understand my comments try to answer. If not then use AI, and prepare next show. May be I will read.
2:50 black on black is hard to see, just saying
Yes we must stop using oil And produce pet plastic. Plastic should use only for important things.
NEVER
6:00 Wow, that's a very hopeful graph. Not like the ones you see from all those geophysicists with us going down the steep slope of the bell oil curve. Another "technology will save us!" video.
Who's "we?"
Amazing vid
Glad you enjoyed it. ✨
This video is energy blind
in 2008 Fox News kept saying oil is a finite source, of course a republican was president and FN isn't known for their creditability
Enough getting oil today
Technology in Renewable energy is more awesome ❤
Please can you explain why you think it's necessary to have intrusive "music" playing in the background through most of your video. It's distracting, makes it difficult to hear what people are saying and detracts from your message.
Thank you. We like the music but it is valuable to hear this criticism - we'll take a note. 🌱
Replace oil with this open sourced, gravity driven, continuous motion, free energy generator:
Power Multiplier Device, medium.
I doubt that we will "run out" of oil. New technology will simultaneously increase the amount of oil we can extract; while simultaneously creating new and cheaper forms of energy that are cheaper than oil.
You can only squeeze an orange so much.
Drilling Engineer here: nope, we’re not running out of oil.
Sure you know your stuff.
But will you tell us you did all the global calculations? Hubbart linearisation, statistics? Or bottom up calculations.
Don't get me wrong. But being an ingenieur doesn't make you automatically an expert in global supply.