First time I don't have a favorite in a long time. Going with West Saratoga because of the Tapit connection. Got a feeling this is somehow going to be one for the ages.
Dallas Mavericks wins Game 5 ✅ with #18 Stronghold wins Derby = $400 #19 Resilience wins Derby = $400 👀 #14 Endlessly wins Derby = $500 Then on Derby/Star Wars Day … $60 Show #2 Sierra Leone = $150 #19 Resilience = $400 Pace is going to be brutal which doesn’t bode well for Fierceness who actually faded in the Holy Bull from a slow pace. I rewatched Epic Ride and West Saratoga’s races and they’re going to press the issue. Epic Ride breaks much faster than Encino. Horses who will go to the front and are capable of running 46s and 1:10s - #8 Just A Touch #1 Dornoch #21 Epic Ride #13 West Saratoga #17 Fierceness #6 Just Steel is also capable of pressing the leaders as well as Resilience. If Fierceness is caught in a pace of 46s and 1:10s, he’s going to fade late. I’m still considering putting a $1 exacta on Fierceness with ALL. He’s the type who either wins this easily or he doesn’t hit the board. Pace is going to be fast and his sire and grandsire never won beyond 9F. I remember Quality Road all too well. He was the male version of Rachel Alexandra. His limitation was at 9F at best. The horse to watch out for is Endlessly. I rewatched some of his races and he moves like Mage. He seems to run hard because he likes to win. He might actually be better than Mage as he’s won 5 of his 6 starts. But he might be a misplaced horse as he’s only raced on turf and synthetic. But hey, Barbaro started on the grass and Animal Kingdom won the Derby at 20-1 without previously running on real dirt. Final 3/8 in final prep 35.01: Domestic Product *36.49:* *Endlessly* 36.58: Catching Freedom 36.63: Forever Young 36.91: Fierceness 37.01: Honor Marie 37.39: Just Steel 37.68: West Saratoga *37.81:* *Resilience* 37.91: Track Phantom *38.01:* *Sierra* *Leone* 38.12: T O Password 38.13: Society Man 38.32: Encino *38.69:* *Stronghold* 39.16: Catalytic 39.31: Just A Touch 39.48: Grand Mo the First 39:83: Epic Ride 40.08: Dornoch Now the final 3/8 hasn’t shown to be the important factor in recent times. Horses who ran over :38 in final 3/8 38.08: Big Brown 40.27: Mine That Bird 38.16: Super Saver 39.38: Animal Kingdom 38.95: Authentic 38.97: Medina Spirit 38.17: Mage We have 19 of the last 26 Derby winners (73.1%) having a final 3/8 in their final prep at under 38. But 7 of the last 16 winners (43.8%) did run over 38. It’s not as important as it used to be similar to horses never running as a 2YO as Just A Touch has never raced at 2 similar to Justify and Mage. I’m zeroing in on four horses - #2 Sierra Leone #19 Resilience #18 Stronghold #14 Endlessly I’m just hoping Sierra Leone and/or Resilience hits the board and I will still win money. SL’s only loss was the Remsen against Dornoch losing by a nose. But some could be right. Sierra Leone may not fire at all and finish off the board. I feel the same way for Fierceness. That’s why the Derby can be so fun. It’s so unpredictable. One of the things I love about Sierra Leone is his CONSISTENCY. This is not the same case for Fierceness. Look at the Risen Star. Sierra Leone beat Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Resilience after a slow pace on the mud. Easy Goer, as great as he was, hated the mud. All the excuses for Sierra Leone to lose that but he still won. Sierra Leone reminds me of Forego and Zenyatta. A big, deep closer. Top 4 1. Sierra Leone 2. Resilience 3. Stronghold 4. Endlessly Show bets on Sierra Leone and Resilience. I don’t trust my luck at picking the winner since 2019 ever since Maximum Security got DQ’d. I hate the Beyer boys. Everyone looks at that figure. It’s an overrated speed fig for noobs. Look at Brisnet’s. It seems in more line on what happened. Resilience earned only a 90 Beyer which makes him look like a “toss” but his Brisnet is 104 which was more accurate as Aqueduct was a slow track that day and the pace was slow. Aqueduct isn’t fast like Gulfstream on most days. You will see 1:50s for 9F and not 1:48s. Highest last *Brisnet* speed figure 106: Fierceness *104:* *Resilience* 102: Society Man *101:* *Sierra* *Leone* 100: Catching Freedom, Just A Touch 99: Honor Marie 98: Stronghold 97: Just Steel Blue Grass winners to win the Derby since 1990… 1991: Strike the Gold Blue Grass participants to win the Derby since 1990…. 1990: Unbridled 1991: Strike the Gold 1993: Sea Hero 1995: Thunder Gulch 2007: Street Sense Wood Memorial winners to win the Derby since 1990… 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus Wood Memorial participants to win the Derby since 1990…. 1994: Go For Gin 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus 2003: Funny Cide The Blue Grass was more useful in the early 90s while the Wood was more useful from the early 00s. KY Derby Winner’s Last Prep Since 1996 - 1996: Arkansas Derby (1st) 1997: Santa Anita Derby (2nd) 1998: Santa Anita Derby (2nd) 1999: Lexington Stakes (1st) 2000: Wood Memorial (1st) 2001: Santa Anita Derby (1st) 2002: Illinois Derby (1st) 2003: Wood Memorial (2nd) 2004: Arkansas Derby (1st) 2005: Santa Anita Derby (4th) 2006: Florida Derby (1st) 2007: Blue Grass Stakes (2nd) 2008: Florida Derby (1st) 2009: Sunland Derby (4th) 2010: Arkansas Derby (2nd) 2011: Spiral Stakes (1st) 2012: Santa Anita Derby (1st) 2013: Florida Derby (1st) 2014: Santa Anita Derby (1st) 2015: Arkansas Derby (1st) 2016: Florida Derby (1st) 2017: Florida Derby (1st) 2018: Santa Anita Derby (1st) 2019: Florida Derby (1st) 2021: Santa Anita Derby (2nd) 2022: Jeff Ruby Steaks (4th) 2023: Florida Derby (2nd) Santa Anita Derby: 8 Florida Derby: 7 Arkansas Derby: 4 Wood Memorial: 2 Lexington: 1 Illinois Derby: 1 Blue Grass: 1 Sunland Derby: 1 Spiral: 1 Jeff Ruby: 1 Winners of their last prep: 17/27 = 63% Losers of their last prep: 10/27 = 37% 1st: 17 2nd: 7 3rd: 0 ITM in their last prep: 24/27 = 88.9% My top 4 all won their last prep. Resilience has the name of a Derby winner like Affirmed, Justify, and Authentic. Not a silly one like Rock Your World who duped me back in 2021. Congrats to Bill Mott if Resilience wins the roses. The second time Mott wins it and while coming from post 18 like Country House did, but the first time without benefitting from a disqualification. John Velazquez ditched Resilience to ride Fierceness. Might be a mistake if Fierceness fades again. Don’t really like Resilience coming out of post 18, but as Randy Moss said, post position can be the single most overrated aspect from the Derby. If you’re good enough, you’re good enough. Big Brown was good enough to win from post 20. The Derby splits will go 23s, 46s and 1:10s. Perhaps even faster. We’ve seen Fierceness lose a race with 25s, 50s, and 1:14s in the Holy Bull. His Brisnet speed figs looks like this: 101-77-112-89-106. He’s ready for another bounce. Resilience, ftw. But I hope he and Sierra Leone can at least hit the board so I can hit around $500 if they won’t win.
Ok Mr. Brainatron 5000. I look forward to seeing Fierceness fade in deep stretch. Horses 4, 7, or 2 might even narrow the margin to less than 3 lengths at the finish.
I can certainly see Epic Ride crossing over in front of fierceness. I also think Dettori will want his name called early! The favorite will be bothered here!
I joke with the people who think Fierceness is off the hook because he's going out of #16. I tell them it is not the gate # that counts but the Betting Position # that counts. I am glad that Catching Freedom will bite and kick. It shows he's independent. The Big Seven: Sierra Leon PP #2, Catching Freedom PP #4, Fierceness #17, Resilience #19, Stronghold #18, Honor Marie #7 and Track Phantom #12. I would replace Track Phantom with #8 Just a Touch because I've read he has a lot of upward potential in his fourth race and Track Phantom is not likely to want the added distance of the Derby. Great work Mr. Johnson! You are not just a great analyst but a great educator. You explain clearly and calmly and inform us of the different factors involved. Thanks and Good Luck!
I see the weather forecast for Saturday's Derby is now calling for a 50% chance of rain with possible thunder storms (it's now early afternoon on May 2nd as I type this). Will any of your betting thoughts change if it is a rainy day? I always like to look at the horses who have run well previously on a wet track. Thanks for your thoughts.
Up front horses have a better chance in the derby so I like fierceness and just a touch and sierra Leone is such an athletic horse that hell be there so I box those three some to win on fierceness because hes logically the winner
I noticed you left out Honor Marie. I'm not sold on him. In the workouts he's wide behind, hollow backed head up and tilted. He doesn't cover the ground efficiently, but his frame does improve at higher speeds. He could improve in this race, but he doesn't give me the confidence the others do.
Yes, I left out Honor Marie, just don't see him as a "Win" contender, I think Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom are better closers than him. Possibly Forever Young, I took some of the others, because they can make a Mid-Race Move and engage earlier, they may get passed late, but they can make a move to win.
I’m aware Sierra Leone isn’t the fastest worker in the mornings. He has shown slow works. And some comments thinks SL looked gassed after the Blue Grass. But I find Sierra Leone at least more RELIABLE than Fierceness hitting the board. If Sierra Leone doesn’t win, that’s ok. That’s the reason why I’m putting a SHOW bet on him. This is why I put him above Fierceness. He might be the slower horse on paper but I feel I can rely on him hitting the board that I can’t for Fierceness. A show payout on Sierra Leone and say he finishes 3rd should pay around $5. Angel of Empire was the chalk last year and the show paid $4.70. Epicenter was the Derby chalk the previous year and the show paid $5.20. Put $60 or more and that multiplies to 30x or more since the payout is based from a $2 bet. Sierra Leone > Fierceness Don’t like the 2 for 40 or 3 for 40 record for 2YO champs or BC Juvenile champs winning the Derby since 1984. The chalk has also been losing as of late. I prefer the bigger horse reeling in the smaller horse like watching Zenyatta beat Rachel Alexandra had they raced at 10F. I’m a Justify fan. I’m aware of the controversies that surrounded him. But back in 2018 when Mike Repole was whining about Restoring Hope protecting Justify in the Belmont, I didn’t care for him. Vino Rosso was not beating Justify that day. I’m not a fan of the guy and I’m not rooting for Fierceness thanks to him.
Ive changed again.My tri box is NOW 2- 8-11-14-17.ex box 8-11-17 for NOW and large ex box going for the fence 8-11 for NOW.still have 2 days to go !!!!!!!!!!
I will do an update Saturday morning if it looks like rain and note horses who could move up. The forecast seems to change every day, so would rather wait until the morning of the race and offer some suggestions. A few horses move up if its a sloppy track, namely Mystik Dan, but that is if it's sloppy and raining.
The statistics say pp.#5, 6, 8, 11, 16 came 1 st / and or / 2nd.in the Derby more times than anyone else since 1991. Horses starting from 9 gates ( 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11 ,16, 18, 20) won 82% of the time in the last 33 Kentucky Derby races. Most people agree that Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Just a Touch are legitimate and logical choices, but it would not be a Kentucky Derby if a longshot ( or two ) did not spoil the trifecta. Dornoch could be that horse, on the rail and early speed, maybe Resilience, but my choice is Joel Rosario on Track Phantom. I hope Track Phantom' s form improved a little bit since that loss to Sierra Leone in sloppy condition by half a length, and Rosario is not shy to come in the money, especially if it's a longshot.
Don't be confused by the different opinions about who will win the Derby. Bet what what you like and what your eyes have seen. Don't let what others like change your mind about what you like.
10 exactas over and under 2, 4 and 17 - $60 Total Dollars. Then $20 Place and $20 to Show on Honor Marie. then after the race, go get something nice to eat with the winnings.
Interesting-if u take Sierra Leone's and Fierceness's stretch numbers-Using Sierra Leone's best two 1 1/8. Fierceness 24 2/5-12 3/5...Sierra Leone 25-12 4/5 24 1/5-12 4/5. Not much difference.
From the 17 whole he had to used his speed and waste a lot of energy Rican see them running 23 and change an 46 and if fierceness can handle the track and the pressure from numbers 1 and phantom and 10 horse maybe he have enough to the wire ,I think Sierra I s the horse to beat and a brown exact is very possible 😮😮 good luck😮
Hold your horses... How does Saffie Joseph Jr get called a "first time in the Kentucky Derby " trainer? NY Traffic 8th in 2020 and White Abarrio 16th in 2022... I will withdraw this post if I am wrong😂😂😂
Whoa i wonder if all my talk about t.p. made u add him in. Hope he breaks and lays 4th or 5th. Yr getting smarter. If he comes 10th so be it. But best value bet of the derby is him.exactas with sierra leone fierceness and resilience. And by the way the jockey and trainer are at least average or so so. Lol lol ha ha. Gd luck 2 all
Best of luck for Fierceness on Saturday..please no more repeat of 2019 Ky Derby, Maximum Security was scratched from being the winner replaced by Country House...a big cry fr spectators
Never give up on yr pick. He said top 7 that r training the best. So maybe it's not like he's against yr pick. Also positive things about yr horse good trainer very good horse and great jockey. Stick with yr pick. F.y.i.if you like j.a.t. keep a eye out 4 deterministic down the road. Nobody likes my best value bet horse t.p. but I'm not changing my w.p.s. bet. And u shouldn't neither. Gd luck.
I have to draw the line, but I do think Just a Touch could be in exacta or Trifecta, I just don't see him winning, I think someone will pass him. Some horses have a better chance to finish second and third than they do to win.
Link for the Oaks and Derby Tip Sheet 2024 Racing Notebook - 📝 -Kentucky Derby Preakness and Belmont Picks - ! 📒
derbyologist-1689.ck.page/2020ebfe81
First time I don't have a favorite in a long time.
Going with West Saratoga because of the Tapit connection. Got a feeling this is somehow going to be one for the ages.
Dallas Mavericks wins Game 5 ✅
with
#18 Stronghold wins Derby = $400
#19 Resilience wins Derby = $400 👀
#14 Endlessly wins Derby = $500
Then on Derby/Star Wars Day …
$60 Show
#2 Sierra Leone = $150
#19 Resilience = $400
Pace is going to be brutal which doesn’t bode well for Fierceness who actually faded in the Holy Bull from a slow pace. I rewatched Epic Ride and West Saratoga’s races and they’re going to press the issue. Epic Ride breaks much faster than Encino.
Horses who will go to the front and are capable of running 46s and 1:10s -
#8 Just A Touch
#1 Dornoch
#21 Epic Ride
#13 West Saratoga
#17 Fierceness
#6 Just Steel is also capable of pressing the leaders as well as Resilience. If Fierceness is caught in a pace of 46s and 1:10s, he’s going to fade late.
I’m still considering putting a $1 exacta on Fierceness with ALL. He’s the type who either wins this easily or he doesn’t hit the board. Pace is going to be fast and his sire and grandsire never won beyond 9F. I remember Quality Road all too well. He was the male version of Rachel Alexandra. His limitation was at 9F at best.
The horse to watch out for is Endlessly. I rewatched some of his races and he moves like Mage. He seems to run hard because he likes to win. He might actually be better than Mage as he’s won 5 of his 6 starts. But he might be a misplaced horse as he’s only raced on turf and synthetic. But hey, Barbaro started on the grass and Animal Kingdom won the Derby at 20-1 without previously running on real dirt.
Final 3/8 in final prep
35.01: Domestic Product
*36.49:* *Endlessly*
36.58: Catching Freedom
36.63: Forever Young
36.91: Fierceness
37.01: Honor Marie
37.39: Just Steel
37.68: West Saratoga
*37.81:* *Resilience*
37.91: Track Phantom
*38.01:* *Sierra* *Leone*
38.12: T O Password
38.13: Society Man
38.32: Encino
*38.69:* *Stronghold*
39.16: Catalytic
39.31: Just A Touch
39.48: Grand Mo the First
39:83: Epic Ride
40.08: Dornoch
Now the final 3/8 hasn’t shown to be the important factor in recent times.
Horses who ran over :38 in final 3/8
38.08: Big Brown
40.27: Mine That Bird
38.16: Super Saver
39.38: Animal Kingdom
38.95: Authentic
38.97: Medina Spirit
38.17: Mage
We have 19 of the last 26 Derby winners (73.1%) having a final 3/8 in their final prep at under 38. But 7 of the last 16 winners (43.8%) did run over 38. It’s not as important as it used to be similar to horses never running as a 2YO as Just A Touch has never raced at 2 similar to Justify and Mage.
I’m zeroing in on four horses -
#2 Sierra Leone
#19 Resilience
#18 Stronghold
#14 Endlessly
I’m just hoping Sierra Leone and/or Resilience hits the board and I will still win money. SL’s only loss was the Remsen against Dornoch losing by a nose. But some could be right. Sierra Leone may not fire at all and finish off the board. I feel the same way for Fierceness. That’s why the Derby can be so fun. It’s so unpredictable.
One of the things I love about Sierra Leone is his CONSISTENCY. This is not the same case for Fierceness. Look at the Risen Star. Sierra Leone beat Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Resilience after a slow pace on the mud. Easy Goer, as great as he was, hated the mud. All the excuses for Sierra Leone to lose that but he still won. Sierra Leone reminds me of Forego and Zenyatta. A big, deep closer.
Top 4
1. Sierra Leone
2. Resilience
3. Stronghold
4. Endlessly
Show bets on Sierra Leone and Resilience. I don’t trust my luck at picking the winner since 2019 ever since Maximum Security got DQ’d. I hate the Beyer boys. Everyone looks at that figure. It’s an overrated speed fig for noobs. Look at Brisnet’s. It seems in more line on what happened.
Resilience earned only a 90 Beyer which makes him look like a “toss” but his Brisnet is 104 which was more accurate as Aqueduct was a slow track that day and the pace was slow. Aqueduct isn’t fast like Gulfstream on most days. You will see 1:50s for 9F and not 1:48s.
Highest last *Brisnet* speed figure
106: Fierceness
*104:* *Resilience*
102: Society Man
*101:* *Sierra* *Leone*
100: Catching Freedom, Just A Touch
99: Honor Marie
98: Stronghold
97: Just Steel
Blue Grass winners to win the Derby since 1990…
1991: Strike the Gold
Blue Grass participants to win the Derby since 1990….
1990: Unbridled
1991: Strike the Gold
1993: Sea Hero
1995: Thunder Gulch
2007: Street Sense
Wood Memorial winners to win the Derby since 1990…
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus
Wood Memorial participants to win the Derby since 1990….
1994: Go For Gin
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus
2003: Funny Cide
The Blue Grass was more useful in the early 90s while the Wood was more useful from the early 00s.
KY Derby Winner’s Last Prep Since 1996 -
1996: Arkansas Derby (1st)
1997: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
1998: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
1999: Lexington Stakes (1st)
2000: Wood Memorial (1st)
2001: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2002: Illinois Derby (1st)
2003: Wood Memorial (2nd)
2004: Arkansas Derby (1st)
2005: Santa Anita Derby (4th)
2006: Florida Derby (1st)
2007: Blue Grass Stakes (2nd)
2008: Florida Derby (1st)
2009: Sunland Derby (4th)
2010: Arkansas Derby (2nd)
2011: Spiral Stakes (1st)
2012: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2013: Florida Derby (1st)
2014: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2015: Arkansas Derby (1st)
2016: Florida Derby (1st)
2017: Florida Derby (1st)
2018: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2019: Florida Derby (1st)
2021: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
2022: Jeff Ruby Steaks (4th)
2023: Florida Derby (2nd)
Santa Anita Derby: 8
Florida Derby: 7
Arkansas Derby: 4
Wood Memorial: 2
Lexington: 1
Illinois Derby: 1
Blue Grass: 1
Sunland Derby: 1
Spiral: 1
Jeff Ruby: 1
Winners of their last prep: 17/27 = 63%
Losers of their last prep: 10/27 = 37%
1st: 17
2nd: 7
3rd: 0
ITM in their last prep: 24/27 = 88.9%
My top 4 all won their last prep.
Resilience has the name of a Derby winner like Affirmed, Justify, and Authentic. Not a silly one like Rock Your World who duped me back in 2021. Congrats to Bill Mott if Resilience wins the roses. The second time Mott wins it and while coming from post 18 like Country House did, but the first time without benefitting from a disqualification.
John Velazquez ditched Resilience to ride Fierceness. Might be a mistake if Fierceness fades again. Don’t really like Resilience coming out of post 18, but as Randy Moss said, post position can be the single most overrated aspect from the Derby. If you’re good enough, you’re good enough. Big Brown was good enough to win from post 20.
The Derby splits will go 23s, 46s and 1:10s. Perhaps even faster. We’ve seen Fierceness lose a race with 25s, 50s, and 1:14s in the Holy Bull. His Brisnet speed figs looks like this: 101-77-112-89-106. He’s ready for another bounce. Resilience, ftw. But I hope he and Sierra Leone can at least hit the board so I can hit around $500 if they won’t win.
Ok Mr. Brainatron 5000. I look forward to seeing Fierceness fade in deep stretch.
Horses 4, 7, or 2 might even narrow the margin to less than 3 lengths at the finish.
I hope ur right with Stronghold-Futures 1 25.00 99-1, Futures 2 25.00 99-1 5,000 minimum.
Lots of good information in this post. Good Luck on the Basketball and Kentucky Derby.
I'm on Just a Touch 🏆
I think Just a Touch will save ground early and run a huge race.
I can certainly see Epic Ride crossing over in front of fierceness. I also think Dettori will want his name called early! The favorite will be bothered here!
I'm ready Craig betting today let win this thing
I joke with the people who think Fierceness is off the hook because he's going out of #16. I tell them it is not the gate # that counts but the Betting Position # that counts.
I am glad that Catching Freedom will bite and kick. It shows he's independent.
The Big Seven: Sierra Leon PP #2, Catching Freedom PP #4, Fierceness #17, Resilience #19, Stronghold #18, Honor Marie #7 and Track Phantom #12. I would replace Track Phantom with #8 Just a Touch because I've read he has a lot of upward potential in his fourth race and Track Phantom is not likely to want the added distance of the Derby.
Great work Mr. Johnson! You are not just a great analyst but a great educator. You explain clearly and calmly and inform us of the different factors involved. Thanks and Good Luck!
Thanks.
CF, F, SL, & R [box]!!
Who are your top contenders for the 2024 Kentucky Derby?
I see the weather forecast for Saturday's Derby is now calling for a 50% chance of rain with possible thunder storms (it's now early afternoon on May 2nd as I type this). Will any of your betting thoughts change if it is a rainy day? I always like to look at the horses who have run well previously on a wet track. Thanks for your thoughts.
Up front horses have a better chance in the derby so I like fierceness and just a touch and sierra Leone is such an athletic horse that hell be there so I box those three some to win on fierceness because hes logically the winner
Looks like rain is for Friday. 25 % chance on Saturday with a high of 80. Should be fast for the race.
@@lenordbrazil9580 This is a logical bet.
Catching Freedom/ Just Steel/ Honor Marie / Fierceness boxed. Win bet Just Steel.
I noticed you left out Honor Marie. I'm not sold on him. In the workouts he's wide behind, hollow backed head up and tilted. He doesn't cover the ground efficiently, but his frame does improve at higher speeds. He could improve in this race, but he doesn't give me the confidence the others do.
Yes, I left out Honor Marie, just don't see him as a "Win" contender, I think Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom are better closers than him. Possibly Forever Young, I took some of the others, because they can make a Mid-Race Move and engage earlier, they may get passed late, but they can make a move to win.
I’m aware Sierra Leone isn’t the fastest worker in the mornings. He has shown slow works. And some comments thinks SL looked gassed after the Blue Grass. But I find Sierra Leone at least more RELIABLE than Fierceness hitting the board.
If Sierra Leone doesn’t win, that’s ok. That’s the reason why I’m putting a SHOW bet on him. This is why I put him above Fierceness. He might be the slower horse on paper but I feel I can rely on him hitting the board that I can’t for Fierceness.
A show payout on Sierra Leone and say he finishes 3rd should pay around $5. Angel of Empire was the chalk last year and the show paid $4.70. Epicenter was the Derby chalk the previous year and the show paid $5.20. Put $60 or more and that multiplies to 30x or more since the payout is based from a $2 bet.
Sierra Leone > Fierceness
Don’t like the 2 for 40 or 3 for 40 record for 2YO champs or BC Juvenile champs winning the Derby since 1984. The chalk has also been losing as of late. I prefer the bigger horse reeling in the smaller horse like watching Zenyatta beat Rachel Alexandra had they raced at 10F.
I’m a Justify fan. I’m aware of the controversies that surrounded him. But back in 2018 when Mike Repole was whining about Restoring Hope protecting Justify in the Belmont, I didn’t care for him. Vino Rosso was not beating Justify that day. I’m not a fan of the guy and I’m not rooting for Fierceness thanks to him.
You make alot of sense good luck
I think Sierra Leone to show might pay 5.60 if you get Fierceness out of the money.
Leaving Fierceness out of money is like going for it on 4th and 3 from your own 17 yard line when you're ahead by 7 in the first quarter.
Ive changed again.My tri box is NOW 2- 8-11-14-17.ex box 8-11-17 for NOW and large ex box going for the fence 8-11 for NOW.still have 2 days to go !!!!!!!!!!
You got it
#5- Catalytic $20(first place)
Fierceness $100(first place)
Early odds interesting, love catching freedom at approx 9-1 but don’t like Forever young and honor Marie being bet down.
Can you tell us if the weather will be a factor for the favourites
I will do an update Saturday morning if it looks like rain and note horses who could move up. The forecast seems to change every day, so would rather wait until the morning of the race and offer some suggestions. A few horses move up if its a sloppy track, namely Mystik Dan, but that is if it's sloppy and raining.
I bet that Dornoch either scratches or falters out of the gate.
The statistics say pp.#5, 6, 8, 11, 16 came 1 st / and or / 2nd.in the Derby more times than anyone else since 1991.
Horses starting from 9 gates ( 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11 ,16, 18, 20) won 82% of the time in
the last 33 Kentucky Derby races.
Most people agree that Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Just a Touch are legitimate and logical choices, but it would not be a Kentucky Derby if a longshot ( or two ) did not spoil the trifecta.
Dornoch could be that horse, on the rail and early speed, maybe Resilience, but my choice is Joel Rosario on Track Phantom.
I hope Track Phantom' s form improved a little bit since that loss to Sierra Leone in sloppy condition by half a length, and Rosario is not shy to come in the money, especially if it's a longshot.
4W and 8W betting both to win then four horse box in exotics 2-4-7-8 Oaks My win horse is 5H on fire with sports let's cash with the ponies
I'm from Southern California , I may have a West Coast bias. Stronghold wins this race
Don't be confused by the different opinions about who will win the Derby. Bet what what you like and what your eyes have seen. Don't let what others like change your mind about what you like.
I feel strongly that Honor Marie will place, but what is the best betting strategy with $100 loot?
10 exactas over and under 2, 4 and 17 - $60 Total Dollars. Then $20 Place and $20 to Show on Honor Marie. then after the race, go get something nice to eat with the winnings.
@@derbyologist awesome thanks so much
Fierceness no chance from 17 - Catching Freedom will close it - next one i take is Honor Marie!
Enjoy the Derby and Catching Freedom
Sierra Leone.. best horse I've seen in years
Guess you haven’t seen flightline
Interesting-if u take Sierra Leone's and Fierceness's stretch numbers-Using Sierra Leone's best two 1 1/8. Fierceness 24 2/5-12 3/5...Sierra Leone 25-12 4/5 24 1/5-12 4/5. Not much difference.
The late ratings are good with Sierra Leone, but not as good as I thought they would be.
I agree Fierceness Sierra Leone wire to wire but a Longshot steals race and Wind
Fierceness with Forever Young and Sierra Leon. Fierceness numbers tower over this bumch. He is this years Barbaro
Cf is my top for derby and tefaria for the oaks
Have Fun Friday and Saturday.
@@derbyologist you too sir I enjoy your racing knowledge on you videos
Sierra Leone
Fierceness/Just A Touch box
Nice to hear from you, enjoy the Big Day.
From the 17 whole he had to used his speed and waste a lot of energy Rican see them running 23 and change an 46 and if fierceness can handle the track and the pressure from numbers 1 and phantom and 10 horse maybe he have enough to the wire ,I think Sierra I s the horse to beat and a brown exact is very possible 😮😮 good luck😮
Honestly, with all types of handicappers guessing who they are going for,have confused me even more!😂😂😂
Hold your horses...
How does Saffie Joseph Jr get called a "first time in the Kentucky Derby " trainer?
NY Traffic 8th in 2020 and White Abarrio 16th in 2022...
I will withdraw this post if I am wrong😂😂😂
Whoa i wonder if all my talk about t.p. made u add him in. Hope he breaks and lays 4th or 5th. Yr getting smarter. If he comes 10th so be it. But best value bet of the derby is him.exactas with sierra leone fierceness and resilience. And by the way the jockey and trainer are at least average or so so. Lol lol ha ha. Gd luck 2 all
Track phantom w.p.s is best value bet.
@ MR. JOHNSON BEST TRIFECTA?..😒😁💰💵💰💵💰💵
17-2-4/ over 17-2-4/ over 17,18,19,12,10
Best of luck for Fierceness on Saturday..please no more repeat of 2019 Ky Derby, Maximum Security was scratched from being the winner replaced by Country House...a big cry fr spectators
He was in front all the way how did he foul anyone I had 300 to win on him a well deserved win and they took it from him he got robbed
Coming soon¡¡
No Just a Touch on your top 7????????
Never give up on yr pick. He said top 7 that r training the best. So maybe it's not like he's against yr pick. Also positive things about yr horse good trainer very good horse and great jockey. Stick with yr pick. F.y.i.if you like j.a.t. keep a eye out 4 deterministic down the road. Nobody likes my best value bet horse t.p. but I'm not changing my w.p.s. bet. And u shouldn't neither. Gd luck.
I agree more money for me
I have to draw the line, but I do think Just a Touch could be in exacta or Trifecta, I just don't see him winning, I think someone will pass him. Some horses have a better chance to finish second and third than they do to win.
Sierra Leone will move up on an off track
It's looking more dry now.