How to Minimize Variance in Poker - A Little Coffee with Jonathan Little

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 พ.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 74

  • @rotierender_lurch
    @rotierender_lurch 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    18:30 Sats are pretty cool if you get a sit in a bigger KO event. Kicking out just one player already gives you some a good ROI.
    100% agree with playing smaller tournaments.

  • @pokerqAK47
    @pokerqAK47 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    I’m pre liking your videos! 😄 Thank you for everything. My win rate in 1/2 1/3 2/5 is above 12bb and my main source of information has been you. Thousands of hours logged in.... So thank you :)

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      No problem, great job! Keep it up!!

    • @boojay7076
      @boojay7076 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      doubt you have a 12bb winrate at 2/5 , I play 2/5 and you seem too tight to have that winrate at 2/5

  • @doubleaalanderson4571
    @doubleaalanderson4571 3 ปีที่แล้ว +15

    "Want to minimize variance? Stop playing tournaments. Find a cash game where you have a solid edge and camp out there." -Mark Lovin... Facts!

    • @Insanity-vv9nn
      @Insanity-vv9nn 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Tournaments have way too much RNG. A Lot of times I make the right choices and the NIT opponents Win anyway. Ex: I raise on SB when everyone folded behind me, BB goes all in, I am chip lead and the Guy had 1/4 of my total Chips, I call with A7 knowing he was bluffing since he was going all in a Lot on those spots, I was right, he had K6, he makes a pair anyway and my right choice didnt matter when he hit 6 outs from the 40 cards to come

    • @chuckhubbard6586
      @chuckhubbard6586 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Insanity-vv9nn that makes me sick, good thing is…that don’t happen often enough. Keep those idiots coming!

  • @mgrizz1123
    @mgrizz1123 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I watched this video yesterday and decided to run 3 tournies at once… I cashed all of them and made it to the final table in one.
    Later that night I entered into 3 more tourneys, won 🏆 one of them and cashed in another.
    Thanks for your content. Timeless.

    • @mgrizz1123
      @mgrizz1123 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Volume

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      That is awesome! Well done!

  • @MrBlack-wt5er
    @MrBlack-wt5er 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    back on ftp I won the 180 man tournament back to back 8 hours each roughly 1st place as unbelievable as that sounds but they were rake back games so they were worth practically nothing and two 90 man tournaments that month as well 1st place both, everyone was playing like a maniac which worked to my advantage and that was back in 2010, I even remember the hands I had when it was down to the finale 3 in the 1st 180 man tournament I won....

  • @natdunh5075
    @natdunh5075 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I know it's a old video but really, great content!!!!!!!!!!

  • @nicholaswindsor536
    @nicholaswindsor536 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Just bought the book, looking foward to taking the next steps to becoming the poker player i wanna be!

  • @liamhalliday8437
    @liamhalliday8437 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I enjoyed your comments about live poker. A "back of envelope" calculation indicates you were making about 8BBs per hour if you averaged $25K a month, played 70 hours a week and played at 5/10 exclusively.
    I am currently on 14BBs per hour at lower stakes, had 1 losing month in 12. Also, my longest downswing was 6 buy-ins, my largest upswing was 21 buy-ins, flattered by a night where I ran super hot. I had considered that low variance an indication that I wasn't being as aggressive as I could be in certain situations, but perhaps the low variance in live poker is a good takeaway. Interesting for sure... :)

  • @woutie490
    @woutie490 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Thank you, really cleared a lot up for me!

  • @paulmaier6305
    @paulmaier6305 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    THANKFULNESS yields POSITIVITY!!!

  • @MrBlack-wt5er
    @MrBlack-wt5er 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I guess we will find out if I'm any good in the long run, if I keep coming back to these videos by this time next year then clearly I'm doing good or if don't come back I will give up on poker.

  • @billthecanuck
    @billthecanuck 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    17:50 i've noticed that in my own play actually, personally i go to a local casino here in Calgary mostly when there are sporting events going on(or even better the calgary stampede) and i bounce around tables trying to get on tables with the drunk people so i can squeeze some money off of them. I aim to transfer to tables with 2-3 big stacks and then start trying to bet into them aggressively. I've gone enough that the casino regulars recognize me and when i sit at the table most of them fold away or even transfer off my table because they know i'm going to start betting hard into the casual players that i don't recognize. Sometimes some of them will get frustrated and give me action, which is fine for me too
    lol.

  • @beepurplepoker6839
    @beepurplepoker6839 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    i love the points you made on the staking i get staked in my home casinos at times but i always put in some of the buy in,

  • @micarobles3248
    @micarobles3248 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Still here coach,hitting my 9th Hr today,
    Great content is hard to leave,Tks coach.

  • @percyblok6014
    @percyblok6014 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Game selection is PARAMOUNT. Put it this way, if NLHE was a solved game, like card counting in Blackjack. You can master the optimum strategy and game play, but if you play against other educated players, you're not going to realize much gain if any. House/rake will be the winner. I currently play 1/2 NL locally, and after 5 hours you can clearly see the effects of the rake on the stacks. Add dealer tips, and it can be VERY HARD to make any money unless the table stays full with fish. Game goes short handed for a spell, unless there's just people spewing chips, you're not going to make anything.

  • @JorgePerez-ne8ib
    @JorgePerez-ne8ib 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Good morning from Petaluma Ca.

  • @Steve-xo4nb
    @Steve-xo4nb 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I've been following Johnathan for a few years. I have a free account for poker coaching. I feel I should upgrade to premium.... I was break even until I started implementing some of my learning. Now I'm losing more lol. In tournaments I'm getting crushed EVERY TIME (just inside the money) by a set. Either a slow played, flopped set, an aggressive turn or revered set that looks like someone trying to buy the pot. At least before, I knew I was busting out, because I was playing bad cards. Now I'm playing pretty much only better cards and losing from that

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Variance is tough!

    • @Steve-xo4nb
      @Steve-xo4nb 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hahaha. Only a couple hours after posting that comment, I finished 7th out of 560. This one felt proper. Hoping my swing started. I could have made it top 3, but I was too hopeful on a flush draw😄

  • @ricky5369
    @ricky5369 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    In response to the talk about getting rich from big tournaments, Jonathan Little doesn't have a WSOP bracelet, what makes you think it's likely you can???

  • @sawg4607
    @sawg4607 ปีที่แล้ว

    Vig. In New Jersey we call that The Juice.

  • @MrBlack-wt5er
    @MrBlack-wt5er 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    51:00 exactly, Phil Hellmuth never won a plo tournament that I know of, it is an entirely different game!

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You like Hellmuth, huh?

    • @MrBlack-wt5er
      @MrBlack-wt5er 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PokerCoaching I actually hope that he wins against Negreanu, I think Hellmuth said what he did about the Negreanu Polk game because he was actually disappointed that not only did Negreanu lose but getting swept and it disappointed me too since I wanted Negreanu to win...

  • @Blakeburke1
    @Blakeburke1 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    There are mega satellites that pay 20% . Obviously the entry fee is slightly more but it’s substantially easier to win a seat in these

  • @liamhalliday8437
    @liamhalliday8437 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Also I would add, like for sure if you want to make money target weaker players and weaker tables and weaker casinos (my hourly is much better in central London casino's very outskirt casino's with fewer tourists), but often for the people watching this video, learning is part of that and if you're only targeting the softest games, you're not improving.
    As such, I have made it a habit of not moving tables or seats just because I am playing with good players. I remember one night in the Hippodrome where the table was 6 good players and 2 average ones. I made 2.5 BBs an hour and was delighted. It was hard to make any money, and I'm sure I could have done better elsewhere, but I was learning. In essence, I was paying perhaps 10BBs an hour to get better in the long-run.
    Defer some profit to the future basically.

    • @liammacdonaldcampbell6585
      @liammacdonaldcampbell6585 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hey I appreciate your comment because I just played my first live session ever in the Hippodrome at 1/2 last night after having played and had good success at online for a year. The table seemed to have about 6-7 decent enough players. You only ever see about 5 places for poker mentioned when you search for casinos in London. Are you referring to aspers? Where would you recommend I play? Thanks

    • @liamhalliday8437
      @liamhalliday8437 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@liammacdonaldcampbell6585 So I play at 4 casinos - The Vic, Aspers, Empire and Hippodrome and my hourly is vastly different, as below:
      Aspers: £7.46 (26 sessions, 17 profitable)
      Empire: £25.77 (12 sessions, 9 profitable)
      Hippo: £41.24 (42 sessions, 30 profitable)
      Vic: £7.89 (4 sessions, 2 profitable)
      The thing here is that Empire and Hippo are both central, Aspers is East (my local) and Vic is West. Aspers, from anecdotal conversations with other players, is the toughest £1/£2 in London, and that's how I feel.
      The Hippo is also way more showy and touristy than Empire, and so the players tend to play a bit more spewy than the more solid but not great average player in Empire.
      The Vic has all the semi-pro and serious amatuers from Reading to London, and Aspers does the same for Essex and East London. You just get a better calibre of players as a result.
      In short, if you're new to poker, I would recommend the Hippo, and further recommend a weekend reasonably late evening to start. The Hippo also does the best food of any casino and drinks are fairly priced.
      If you want to test your skill and work on your game, head to Aspers. But don't expect decent eating or the same fun of Hippo, which is my fav.

    • @liammacdonaldcampbell6585
      @liammacdonaldcampbell6585 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@liamhalliday8437 Thanks for your reply, I'll stick to the hippo for now then and look forward to further sessions there. I was there for 4 hours and ended -49, I was happy with how I played and some of the spews from others were shocking like IP shoving flop Vs EP with A8 on 1086. Anyway, could I get your discord or FB messenger in case we end up going at the same time and could say hi?

    • @liamhalliday8437
      @liamhalliday8437 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@liammacdonaldcampbell6585 So I've been meaning to get a bit more active socially, a good excuse to set-up Discord. Feel free to add me - HedgehogPoker :) Happy to discuss hand histories likewise.
      I am planning on going on the 27th, probably about 20:00. I live on a 24 hour tube line so easy for me to go, and trying to go twice a week this year.
      I think a small loss is OK, but personally I would focus on how you played. I would much rather play well and have a small loss than play badly and fluke a small win. In the long term, that is ;). My last visit to the Hippo was -£300, I took some high variance lines with big draws and missed, and could have played a tab tighter if I'm honest, maybe limit my loss to -£200. That said, I'd been running very lucky over Dec and was up £1800 across 4 sessions before that one, so it was probably due I'd miss just about every draw! :) - That's poker!

    • @liammacdonaldcampbell6585
      @liammacdonaldcampbell6585 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@liamhalliday8437I'll probably come along I was thinking about Friday anyway. I need your four digit hash tag that is displayed within discord alongside your username to be able to add you. Let me know thanks

  • @MadDogMerlin
    @MadDogMerlin 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank-you

  • @qknightbaker
    @qknightbaker 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    What books are on your shelves?

  • @BlueEyesWhiteBoy
    @BlueEyesWhiteBoy 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    I want to link my friend Matt to ONE of your videos
    He is a VERY new players
    Can you link me to the one I should send or can you tell me the video title? thx

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      th-cam.com/video/1owcipR3wqA/w-d-xo.html Here is a poker for beginners video. I hope it's helpful!

  • @karlos417
    @karlos417 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Don’t play stars above 500 entrants build a bankroll if playing mtt in smaller field sites

  • @casualfan3358
    @casualfan3358 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Whats the lowest stakes do you feel this coaching can help with?

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      .01/.02 and 0.50 tournaments... limiting variance is more important the smaller stakes you play and the more limited your bankroll is.

  • @pbaykov
    @pbaykov 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    If variance is the fact of the game is it pain for poker players ? Let's say I build the poker room where I artificially guarantee variance, by mixing hands deals that players won't loose or win 10 or 20 flips in a row , or all-ins where they where ahead. May it solve people's pain. Imagine if you winning player , you can calculate your income easy and if you loosing player you can work on your game harder instead of adding more hours...dispersion it's just the parameter of probability distribution random generator..

  • @oldhamegg
    @oldhamegg 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    "I've got both of your books"

  • @daithi1966
    @daithi1966 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Am I getting unlucky? Am I losing money because of variance? Or, do I just suck?
    If I'm winning your money then the answer is --- you're a great player and are just getting unlucky.

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Put in significant volume and you will be able to answer all of these questions.

  • @MrBlack-wt5er
    @MrBlack-wt5er 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    I sort of disagree and agree at the same time, if you are in a poker tournament or a sit and go you want luck and "timing" to come your way, your not always going to have the best hand when you're all in and you're not always going to end up with the best hand by the river! I think I am a high variance type of player so I do run into sets and brick walls like "Ace's", I would discribe myself as a "nit" although if I think I have the best hand on the flop I will usually be pot committed and practically if not all in by the river, me bluffing usually means I think I have to gamble by going all in with jack ten or I think I'm the favorite to win the hand by the river and rarely I might get pissed if I keep getting called or if I have to put up with a maniac I might check raise with nothing or bet on a awful flop! I think usually when I have a downfall it is from slow playing aces to triple up or min-raising a small pair to try to make a set on the flop and try to get two callers all in. I don't know if anyone would describe my style as good poker especially on the internet but I just got back in the loop real recently and I'm winning but playing small games trying to work my way into bigger games off my bankroll.....

  • @TopSpinWilly
    @TopSpinWilly 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    163 likes 1 dislike. Pretty good. Not due to varience. Pretty rare #.

  • @MATTHRPE
    @MATTHRPE 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Ok then Jonathan...I don't play much on SKY but it's where I play the most serious....I'm %57.7 ROI over 1400 games but realize half of those games were where I played ,in stalkes bounties for fun, it wasn't till abut 100 games I started to take it seriously...andddd on top of that...they are all bounties so you can double my profit. The old skool pro on SKY called Tikay called me the impressivey profitable Darkneo...I should do better tho.....I have a fll time 2-10job so I miss the main game these days it makes me sad :/ The reason I win on there tho is lie you said, It's small fields 200-500 people max..skill beats variance ;) muxh lov keep it up xx

  • @vaultdwellernick8733
    @vaultdwellernick8733 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    when you slow the video down to 0.5 he sounds high as F!!

  • @chadsmith2281
    @chadsmith2281 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    I play about 4 games a day.

    • @chadsmith2281
      @chadsmith2281 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Wish I could play more but you know work😤 lol. Love all you videos!

  • @PowerChowder
    @PowerChowder 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    The sun... doesn't go around the earth.. :P

  • @pbaykov
    @pbaykov 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Let's imagine that poker room or casino are cheating, putting more volume to play more will lead you to ruin, no matter how good or bad you are.

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Sure, but that's not happening. And if you suspect that is happening, don't play in that game.

    • @pbaykov
      @pbaykov 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Jonathan, you are making so great content! And you absolutely right ,don't like Bellagio play at Commerce etc.. regarding your answer if you look 2+2 forum people about 35% think online poker is rigged . Do you think is it a pain for people? If it a pain, is not late to make more transparent poker room as a business , that obvious integrity of the game

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@pbaykov I think many people think online poker is rigged because they don't understand variance and are too emotional.

    • @Dreamline78
      @Dreamline78 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PokerCoaching For many of them, they also don't understand that the games are much tougher now than they were in the poker-boom days, and the strategy they used to beat 50nl in 2007 doesn't cut it anymore, even at 10nl.

  • @hymnofashes
    @hymnofashes 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    The way to minimize variance is to raise only aa kk AK and limp call the rest of your 8% range. Hope donkey will overplay his marginal made hand when you make the nuts. Sit there and wait for the nuts. Table change if anyone with a brain sits down. That's how you minimize variance.

    • @Insanity-vv9nn
      @Insanity-vv9nn 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Sounds like a good way to get blinded out. If you're raising with top hands everyone Will fold and calling any marginal hand that miss the flop 40% of the time Will only make you lose Chips Quickly. A Lot of loser players do this, I always fold to their raise and often they lose with QQ,KK and AK. Big hands dont mean "I Win 100%"

  • @andrewallin7856
    @andrewallin7856 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    I'm sorry poker is too boring to put in that kind of volume. Have fun...

    • @PokerCoaching
      @PokerCoaching  3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Most things in life are boring, yet people do them. I personally really like seeing my bank account continuously increase, even though it is just a number ticking up. Perhaps I am easily entertained.

    • @andrewallin7856
      @andrewallin7856 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PokerCoaching poker is a bad bet compared to other activities. I do play for the gamble though.

  • @elemonix4334
    @elemonix4334 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Why are you talking about “online” when we (including you) know damn well that at this point in time (including 2 years ago when this vid was made), online is super rigged and it’s a scam? Please tell me, Mr. J.L., who himself doesn’t play online

    • @Hoogeland22
      @Hoogeland22 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      So how is it a scam or rigged exactly?

    • @elemonix4334
      @elemonix4334 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Hoogeland22 because for 2 decades I beat commerce 10-20 and 5-10 (sometimes bigger games, but primarily those 2) without having a losing month, and I’m drawing dead in online $1 games. Simple as that.