Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110

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Dave Kellogg is one of the OGs of Saas. Among his many accomplishments, Dave was the CMO of Business Objects where he helped scale the business from $30M to $1BN in revenue. Dave has also been a CEO twice, once scaling the business from $0 to $80M and the other business from $8M to $50M before selling it. Dave is also an advisor to some of the best including GainSight, Logickull, MongoDB, Pigment, Recorded Future, and Tableau.
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Timestamps:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:01:04) Kellogg's Career Highlights
(00:07:00) CAC Analysis
(00:11:48) Investment Metrics Analysis
(00:14:40) SaaS NRR and GRR Dynamics
(00:18:21) Importance of CS Teams
(00:24:32) SaaS Team Incentives & Churn
(00:31:18) Sales Team Management
(00:39:51) Sales Closing & Buyer Talk
(00:43:12) 2024 Discounting Strategies
(00:47:44) Customer References
(00:53:46) Product Marketing: Horizontal vs Vertical
(00:59:50) Engineering vs GTM Founders
(01:05:06) AI SaaS Strategies for Founders
(01:08:06) Quick-Fire Round
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In Today’s Episode with Dave Kellogg We Discuss:
1. What are the Metrics That Matter:
Why is CAC payback period such a flawed metric?
What is CAC ratio? Why is it more effective than understanding payback?
Why is gross revenue retention more important than net revenue retention?
What are the single biggest mistakes that founders make when using metrics today?
2. How to Build and Scale the Best Sales Teams:
Why should founders hire three sales reps at one time? What is the benefit?
What are the three different types of sales calls all teams must have?
What should all CEOs and Heads of Sales ask of their sales team in forecasting?
What is the single biggest mistake most companies make in forecasting?
How should a CEO/board member respond to a sales team that lets a deal slip to next quarter?
3. Are CFOs Buying New Tech and How to Win Renewals:
Are CFOs open for business? How has the top down sales process changed in the last year?
Why is the way that startups think about renewals completely broken?
What are the three different types of customer success teams we have today?
What is the core role of customer success? How can we incentivise them to sell more?
4. Mastering Product Marketing, Customer Profiles and Crossing the Chasm:
How can we use product marketing to increase sales velocity?
What is the single biggest risk in product marketing today?
What does Dave mean when he says “an ICP starts as an aspiration and becomes a regression?”
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[@20VC]

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[@keitheinstein2807]

This is my first comment on TH-cam and I'm in my 30s. I never felt the need to, but I feel compelled to say that this was absolutely amazing. Dave is a superstar. Deep knowledge, clear communication, and ZERO fluff. And Harry 👏👏👏 you did a masterful job. Thank you both.

[@gramidt]

This is hands down one of my favorite episodes!

[@mattdhargett]

I love love love the way Dave Kellogg thinks and breaks down these ideas. His other talks were invaluable to me as a technical product veteran who needed to make credible forecasts for my new venture. His balance of hard-hitting Vulcan logic and empathy for the people who actually make the business scale is incredibly rare.

[@RohanVij-rv9rd]

Top video. Dave is a fountain of SaaS knowledge. Anyone considering selling a software product should listen to his other talks 🙏🏽. Helped me a ton.

[@user-fx3zb9gf7r]

This is a great episode, Kellogg provides clarity about key metrics. In the conversation Kellogg mentions that he'll share a sample closing plan, where can I find this?

[@sanagpal]

Master Class on Sales ❤

[@swishersnaaake8208]

Dave is gold as always, and excellent questions from Harry.

[@heyiammike]

Thank you so much. First podcast I’ve seen in a while that was more than entertaining. GREAT WORK.

[@user-ed1hd9gv1z]

Amazing host!!! ;)

[@_crowbar9162]

Hey, did we ever get that cleaned up close plan that we as audience could have a look at?

[@user-rd8go9lf5c]

harry you are great