bro, is this an ESPN side project? i mean the research, images, graphics, sound design, score… i mean daaaayum!!! bravo!!! cable needs to step their game up to compete with MacKelvie!
The problem with this video is the NFL has absolutely nothing to do with how many stars a HS player is rated/ranked. He acts like it’s a big shocker if a guy rated 5 stars isn’t drafted in the first round. Those ratings are better thought of as a players future potential because there’s way too many variables to account for to judge whether a player is a sure fire first rounder. They’re still growing physically and has a hell of a lot of maturing to do. Toss in injuries, roster changes from the transfer portal, the type of offense teams run, and I could literally go on and on. I guess next video will be about how many little league World Series players ended up in the major leagues…
@@frankbattlejr981Um he says all this in the Video did you bother watching it before commenting? And actually there was correlation for the physical skills of WR and RB and DL and DE so your comment is even more irrelevant. It doesn’t measure drive or intelligence or intangibles. Well Tell that to the idiots putting out 12 million dollars for a 5 star QB to go to a school this year when most 4-5 Star QBs bomb out of college, and don’t do well in the NFL, as detailed in the video. Besides, when ranking them they are supposed to tell you how guys will do against other top notch FBS players, which is supposed to correlate with later success. The fact it doesn’t is something to study further if a team wants to beat the draft and become more successful wouldn’t you say? Next time think before typing. What you are criticizing, that is literally what the whole point of the video is. Also, with this BS NIL crap going on it shows how much money is now being pissed away on kids who have neither the brains nor the drive to succeed on the field at the highest levels. These kids are now making millions off just their rankings so I think this video was very relevant. The production and quality were excellent, and the video as a whole was informative and should probably be watched by coaches and ADs and GMs the world over. You don’t think it is relevant then don’t watch it.
I played at a P5 program and went there in large part because of my future teammate/roommate. He was a future NFL stud in my eyes, but turned out to be one of those overrated 18 year olds. We had a long talk one night about why it ended the way it did. He was a coaches dream in T-shirt and shorts and that’s why he was a 5-star. Tall, stout, rocket for an arm, accurate, great footwork, and ran a 4.6. In college, he couldn’t process fast enough and that alone was enough to kill everything. In meetings he’d see it all but in games he’d get stuck on reads, not make proper calls pre snap to post snap. So if that’s from HS to college then I can only imagine what it’s like at the qb position from college to the NFL.
@@yawn1025 I feel like the issue was just bad playcalling. You don’t suddenly go from great to terrible for no reason. And the past season has shown that Steichen is a great play caller, so hurts was great. And Johnson was a terrible play caller, so hurts wasn’t very good
Joe Alt played high school Tight End at Totino Grace in Minnesota. He was highly recognized as a potential OT. He was a highly rated 4 star. (Closer to 5 star than 3 star. He was a solid 4 star on 247 with a 92 rating). His writeup by 247 scout Allen Trieu calls him a OT prospect. Other than that, you are almost on track with something you said.
Most 6”6 250 lb high school Tight Ends end up Offensive Tackles in college. And many of them are very good. College recuters salivate over that skill set and body type.
Perhaps the most significant element in Joe Alts development.... Because he did pan out. "Joe Alt's father, John Alt, played in the NFL for the Kansas City Chiefs. " There is no guarantee the child of an NFL player will make it... But it can be an immense advantage!
With the quality of what you've been putting out, you sure deserve more subscribers. The research, the presentation, the graphs, the editing, the narration, all top notch. I'm commenting to hopefully trigger the algorithm to recommend you to more people. Keep it up!
@@michaelmackelvie Keep going. I'm not sure how inspiring one TH-cam comment can be, but this video is the one that finally compelled me to subscribe. Your videos are novel and cover subjects I've continually thought don't receive nearly enough retrospective coverage considering the depth of coverage they're afforded initially.
At the end of the day, it's all about winning championships for the college football fan. As history as shown since these websites became a thing, the more elite your recruiting class the better chance your team has of winning at an elite level.
From the concepts & analysis to the script & writing to the production & editing, this channel would be impressive as a prime time network show. The use of a critical & analytical approach applied equally to sports & finance offers an outstanding opportunity to demonstrate how this method can work in wildly different fields. This project is going to take off & rightfully so. I’m excited to see what’s in store.
Bro, can't imagine all the work behind this videos. Data analysis is always very time consuming. And then producing these amazing videos, and scripting the story behind it. Amazing work! keep it up
Michael, your content is legitimately the only channel I've been able to watch the entire video without stopping. So compelling, so powerful, insightful and just the perfect amount of humor. PLEASE keep educating us like this
Incredible in-depth analysis, and the previous video looking into the NFL draft is a great compliment to this. Keep up the good work I look forward to seeing more!
There is so much more space for improv in college. Players aren't as good and qbs can run around while players get open because they aren't getting closed down
If I were an NFL GM, 95 times out of 100, I wouldn't take a QB in the 1st round, especially if the team s*cked. Would probably favor edge rushers instead.
This is a totally new thing. It reminds me of when I saw a Jon Bois video for the first time, not in terms of style necessarily, but just in terms of how cool and different it feels (the toy soldier-style football players probably help that connection too)
I think football is a lot more difficult to predict on a player to player basis. The 5 star high schooler probably didn’t have any injuries, but once you make it to college, careers do end there and in the nfl. Rankings can’t account for that. Also, the mental part, the pressure, or the lack of ridicule at the lower levels can hamper players success when they meet it in college and pros. Adding the element of money also changes ppls drives. The reason I’m guessing a lot of guys who were low or undrafted succeed because of the financial opportunity while others may make their money and coast. Not all just some. Also, how someone’s body matures after 18 is also not predictable which all adds up to make sense why not incredibly accurate
Great comment! As an agent the elephant in the room is psychology. Where is that kid's head? I have seen 4 star players who were spoiled not make it because coaches will not kiss their ass. Also, players who are in private schools often have an artificial advantage of facilities and coaching. EG. Mater Dei in California and Bishop Gorman in Vegas. Also factor in city v suburbia. There is lots of talent in Oakland or places like San Bernardino that do not have the facilities or coaching.
The way you delivered this information and the general depth of the research is amazing. I've just found your page but I know I'll be watching a lot more of your videos from here on out. There is an art to delivering somewhat dense analytics and you sir do it with a finesse!
Really love/appreciate the work that you do and the amount of time you put in to produce these awesome videos. Research/data aside, the snippet between 1:00 and 1:25 gave me the chills, and manages to perfectly convey the aura that is CFB.
What you said about RBs is why I think the rookie pay scale should be adjusted for the RB position. Whereas everyone else is expected to start lower & get that big pay day after their rookie deal, I believe it should be the opposite for RBs. They are used & abused early on, then discarded before they make it to that first big contract. Teams ride them as hard as they can for those first 4-5 seasons, then cut their losses & replace them once their rookie deal is up. Every other position has a much better chance of getting that first big pay day, just as players enter their prime. But the "prime" for most RBs is those first years, and few teams would shell out big money for a guy that was already heavily used for 4-5 straight seasons.
Corey I have said this my friend! They take the most abuse and are getting paid the least…idk if there’s an answer, but I have proposed the same hypothetical. Not sure if it’d pencil out…
@michaelmackelvie Thinking back on it, I may have heard you talk about this before. Maybe I stumbled across your videos before & didn't realize it, but you may be the one that convinced this needs to change.
My idea is that rookie running backs get a player option going into year 3. If they want to stay with their original team, they can stay for the full contract, but if they’ve become an elite RB, they get the opportunity to test the open market at 24 instead of 26/27.
This was true 20 years ago when backs regularly averaged 350+ totes a season. Now they're barely averaging 250+ with only the quality backs or completely run-oriented teams giving a back in the area of 300 rushes. Unless your Derrick Henry or a CMC you'll be lucky to tote the rock 350 times a year both rushing and receiving. As it stands outside of injuries teams don't do RB1 85% of the time now unless they can run, block and catch passes at a pro level. Most backs coming out of college can barely do two of the three at a pro-level at best. 3-down backs are rare enough already but a 3-down back that has all-pro levels of talent? Thats why most get discarded after their rookie deals cause for a situational player you can just draft one or sign one for cheap. The majority of whom are dime a dozen runners who don't provide anything in the passing game. This is why the Steelers will let Najee Harris walk at the end of his contract and fill his void with draftees and free agent signees.
I also like the idea of paying running backs higher on their rookie deals. That being said, the NFL teams will do some shady stuff like claim this dude is a linebacker or tight end, but play him as a running back.
I DEFINITELY needed this. I’m working on a project of ranking all FBS & FCS teams together for the 2023 season. All D1 ranking w/ new strength of schedules elements and everything
This is why the transfer portal will only make the rich get richer because the big programs can now scout players at positions that are a crap shoot to scout in highschool further along in their development, and poach them from smaller schools. The big schools have always had an advantage in recruiting great defensive linemen and running backs, but there was less of a difference at the positions that require intangibles. Not anymore.
I agree, but also the transfer portal will allow someone like an Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen who never got viability of their game in HS to shine in JuCo and get easier opportunities in NCAA. Also much easier for players who need more years of playtime and exposure to get them. Think how crazy it is that if neither of them hustled like crazy people to get any kind of NCAA offer they would have never even sniffed an NFL field. It also means that if a school wants to elevate themselves overnight they can…like right now NYS and SUNY doesn’t have a team in a mainstream conference. UB is the flagship but stuck in the MAC. Assuming Albany wasn’t corrupt and SUNY started spending money to enhance their flagship, they could now change the team overnight into every other flagship program like Rutgers or Penn State. Small schools SHOULD act like feeder programs for larger schools, while larger schools with deep pockets have the opportunity to build teams. I think the transfer reform a win win all around.
While I agree with your point about smaller schools getting their players poached.. we can all agree that a group of 5 team up until maybe, this new 12 team format, never had a chance to compete with the top power 5 programs poaching in the first place. This does however, open opportunity up to middle tier power 5 programs that want to take the next step. My Missouri Tigers are a perfect example. 0 bowl wins since 2015. Commit to the portal, invest millions into your program, lobby to pass a state law allowing you to pay HS commits to win in state recruiting battles, and before you know it you’re beating the blue blood Ohio State in a N6 Bowl and picked to make the playoffs in 2025. The group of 5 schools really are getting the worst of this all though.
Being super talented at a young age can be a curse in sports because those players get pushed the hardest. If you want to make it to the nfl you have to make the cut but not be too good that your coach overworks you till you break.
I don’t comment on many youtube videos but I have to mention how well done this video is. It’s something I would expect a highly popular channel to put out and you deserve that for sure if you continue this!
Dude I just found your channel and I have been watching tons of your videos now. Not only is the quality of your videos amazing, but the topics you pick are unique and interesting.
I did this exact analysis myself for an sb nation article a few years ago. Specifically stars va draft results. Happy to see that we found similar results. The fact that more than 50% of five stars get drafted is really wild. Way way more than I thought it would be. Also i haven’t finished the video but you have to take into consideration that there are only 30 5 stars in a given recruiting class versus thousands of 2 and 3 stars. When you have such a large pool to choose from it makes it more likely that a very small percentage of them will become exceptional, with the total number still being more than the 4 and 5 stars.
I wish these services would have a reranking of their classes 4 years later. I would be fascinated to see who actually had the best recruiting classes from the past vs the theoretical ones we get now that only project what they think. Seems like it would be pretty easy since all the data is out there and all someone has to do is look it up, but I get the idea these sites don't want this done. Perhaps it would show they were not correct with their evaluations, and they don't want that. I think it would be an excellent use for colleges to find coaches who can get max value out of classes, and show which coaches can only recruit and which ones can get the most of their talent. As an example, when Mike Norvell was at Memphis, I don't think he had a recruiting class in the top 50, but he was putting a lot of players in the NFL relative to the rankings and had Memphis at a very high level. I would love to see some kind of ranking system with the job. He did there versus say jimbo fisher. I can't figure out every metric that would be measured, but It just seems like there could be some kind of scale to measure coaches based on their ability to get the most out of their talent. There could be something out there already but if it's being used, I haven't seen it.
This channel is one of the best on the YT. From my experience with some of the writers and evaluators it’s more about relationships ( with the HS coach, the top kids handler & college recruiters) than actually being accurate. Also if a kid has an offer and he goes to a camp that the press is attending, the writers will pump him up. This leads to more top kids showing up, the more top kids the more not top kids equals more money and eyes on the website. I have read and seen scouting sites down grade a kid for not going to a camp….. even say some of their offers were not real.
How many times are people going to pretend that stars dont matter before they understand the math behind just how accurate they actually are. Over the past five years, players ranked as five stars are 15 times more likely to get drafted vs. two stars or lower prospects. Four-star recruits over the past five years are 5.2 times more likely to get drafted over two stars and three-stars are 1.3 times more likely to get picked.
This video is for content purposes mixed with facts about most positions. Higher class football divisions get you noticed faster like Bishop Gorman,IMG,Mater Dai etc.
It is remarkable to me how few subscribers you have and, whether you've had offers or not yet, that you haven't even done an ad read. This channel is incredible quality - please keep up the great content!!
It's interesting to know that 21% of 5-star became 1st rounders and 60% of them are drafted. That's actually incredibly accurate. You can't simply judge accuracy purely by percentages. You have to judge it also based on "needle in a haystack" effect, i.e., people say the chances of making the NFL is one in a million. Well, if you're a 5-star, 1 in a million becomes 6 out of 10. That's many orders of magnitude than pure chance. Also numbers like "13% of All Pros are 5-stars and 60% are 3-stars are lower" are not meaningful and can be very misleading. It's not meaningful without knowing the ratio between players who are 5-stars and players who are 3-stars and lower.
I agree, and I'm baffled that the video didn't take this into account. If 5-stars are 13% of the all-pros despite being only like 1% of all recruits, that's incredible Surprised I had to scroll so far down to find comments like this.
As someone who played high school football in Miami, and played with and against multiple 3,4, and 5 Star recruits. Scouts don't base the star ratings off intangibles almost at all. I know multiple 4 star recruits who weren't good in highschool, but had good combine results and therefore were high rated recruits. Combine is like 95% of the rating. Almost no one is even looking for intangibles.
Your entire premise is flawed from the outset. There are only roughly 25-35 5 star recruits in any given year, so of course there are more 2 and 3 star players in the NFL. Especially when there are over 250 picks in each NFL draft. Even in a great year there are only 40 or so 5 star recruits.
Never watched a video until today, just sent it to a few people around a college scouting department. High quality work that I think we can look at and really learn something from.
The quality of that College football montage hit me so hard it made me miss my alma mater. And it was a throwaway bit for this video. Excellent work, sir.
@@promptlyjoebrown4305 that segment took the most effort actually…a lot of sound mixing and searching for clips/timing. I put a lot into it and it means a lot to hear others enjoyed it.
Firstly, this channel will blow up. You're doing an incredible job. One flaw in this video, however, is your analysis towards running backs not being taken in the early rounds. Its not due to short lifespan, because if that were true, teams would likely do the opposite and draft them high since that would provide a fantastic RB on a rookie contract for 5 years... which is cheap. The reason is instead that teams are realising that the running back position just isn't that important (with a very, very few amount of individual exceptions). We know this because the data surrounding replacement running back performance is surprisingly similar to starting running backs. Basically, tackles and guards are far more important to the running game than the guys that actually run with the ball.
Thanks for reminding me about the speed option. I like this guy’s content but he talks as if every sentence is extremely profound and it’s too annoying for me
Just subscribed. I hadn't come across your videos before, but based on the quality I was sure you had at least a couple hundred thousand subs already. This is genuinely some of the best production quality I've seen from any sports channel. I love the way you presented the data and the use of the figurines in stop motion is awesome. Looking forward to watching the rest of your work.
The most fascinating article on college star rankings I've ever seen. I've always speculated that the positions that require intelligence and discipline correlate poorly from HS to the NFL. This solidifies that theory for me! Great job!
Now thats a high quality video roght there. Great soundtrack, buttery smooth voice, an interesting title and an incredible amount if legwork. Looking forward to kore videos
Man, this production is fantastic. Based on production alone, this is better than any 30-for-30 or NFL special that I’ve seen. And this video is a great concept to look into. First time seeing a video of yours. Definitely earned a sub; I hope you keep this up because this is IT.
Truly fantastic analysis. Not many people put out content like this, and it's honestly a great watch every time you post a new video. Thank you for your insight, and keep up the great work!
I can't believe you're only at 58K subs. Wow. I don't even really follow sports anymore, but damn if your videos aren't thought-provoking and well put together.
Great video! Editing and production had me sucked in as always. Would love a video about Legendary NFL Coaches and how their success correlated to the success of their coaching tree
curious if the linebacker issues come from high school rankings dubbing pass rushers d-ends more often than the NFL does. looked at 2012 all pro team for example and Aldon Smith/DeMarcus Ware are All-Pro outside LBs but recruited as d-ends.
The best creator on this app. It's unbelievable how under the radar you're flying -- a mix of KTO and JxmmyHighroller, but smarter. Great stuff please keep it up!!
I dropped by this video and I’d like to say well done. I loved the mix of graphics of actual footage and stats. I think overrated is a bad term that puts so much pressures on players, while underrated is what makes players feel they can try harder to show up more. I don’t pay attention to lower levels of football since I grew up outside the US so thanks for opening my eyes to what those rankings are and how they actually correlate in the NFL
Highly ranked QBs are the way to go. I’ve analyzed all of them, tracking production at the high school, college, and pro levels. You’re statistically more likely to succeed with elite QB recruits, at each level of football. The analysis in the video is just wrong and the most wins list he provided had a ton of guys that either predated rankings or arrived right at the beginning. I mean, the guy pointed out that rivals arrived in 1998, but pointed to Peyton Manning (from before that) as a 5-star. It’s a half truth, as Manning was a huge recruit, but as with several others on the list, he doesn’t fit into the parameters established
bro, is this an ESPN side project? i mean the research, images, graphics, sound design, score… i mean daaaayum!!! bravo!!! cable needs to step their game up to compete with MacKelvie!
Is this…Steak…from Jake Farm? Thanks Brody!
The problem with this video is the NFL has absolutely nothing to do with how many stars a HS player is rated/ranked. He acts like it’s a big shocker if a guy rated 5 stars isn’t drafted in the first round. Those ratings are better thought of as a players future potential because there’s way too many variables to account for to judge whether a player is a sure fire first rounder. They’re still growing physically and has a hell of a lot of maturing to do. Toss in injuries, roster changes from the transfer portal, the type of offense teams run, and I could literally go on and on. I guess next video will be about how many little league World Series players ended up in the major leagues…
@@frankbattlejr981Um he says all this in the Video did you bother watching it before commenting? And actually there was correlation for the physical skills of WR and RB and DL and DE so your comment is even more irrelevant. It doesn’t measure drive or intelligence or intangibles. Well
Tell that to the idiots putting out 12 million dollars for a 5 star QB to go to a school this year when most 4-5 Star QBs bomb out of college, and don’t do well in the NFL, as detailed in the video. Besides, when ranking them they are supposed to tell you how guys will do against other top notch FBS players, which is supposed to correlate with later success. The fact it doesn’t is something to study further if a team wants to beat the draft and become more successful wouldn’t you say?
Next time think before typing. What you are criticizing, that is literally what the whole point of the video is. Also, with this BS NIL crap going on it shows how much money is now being pissed away on kids who have neither the brains nor the drive to succeed on the field at the highest levels. These kids are now making millions off just their rankings so I think this video was very relevant. The production and quality were excellent, and the video as a whole was informative and should probably be watched by coaches and ADs and GMs the world over. You don’t think it is relevant then don’t watch it.
@@frankbattlejr981 I just read I’m a Bitter Miserable Hater.
ESPN couldn’t produce something like this anymore. Disney too woke
I played at a P5 program and went there in large part because of my future teammate/roommate. He was a future NFL stud in my eyes, but turned out to be one of those overrated 18 year olds. We had a long talk one night about why it ended the way it did.
He was a coaches dream in T-shirt and shorts and that’s why he was a 5-star. Tall, stout, rocket for an arm, accurate, great footwork, and ran a 4.6.
In college, he couldn’t process fast enough and that alone was enough to kill everything. In meetings he’d see it all but in games he’d get stuck on reads, not make proper calls pre snap to post snap.
So if that’s from HS to college then I can only imagine what it’s like at the qb position from college to the NFL.
Dang really cool perspective thanks for sharing
as an eagles fan and jalen hurts lover, i'm scared this is what he is
@@yawn1025 I feel like the issue was just bad playcalling. You don’t suddenly go from great to terrible for no reason. And the past season has shown that Steichen is a great play caller, so hurts was great. And Johnson was a terrible play caller, so hurts wasn’t very good
Did your friend go on to coach? He sounds like he had a head for film analysis.
@@jemiller226 Left the game behind and went into finance. He thought about coaching but it's a grind to start your career.
LT Joe Alt at Notre Dame who is projected as a top 15 pick came in to ND as 3 Star Tight End Recruit.
He's a stud so far this year.
Joe Alt played high school Tight End at Totino Grace in Minnesota. He was highly recognized as a potential OT. He was a highly rated 4 star. (Closer to 5 star than 3 star. He was a solid 4 star on 247 with a 92 rating). His writeup by 247 scout Allen Trieu calls him a OT prospect.
Other than that, you are almost on track with something you said.
Most 6”6 250 lb high school Tight Ends end up Offensive Tackles in college. And many of them are very good.
College recuters salivate over that skill set and body type.
Perhaps the most significant element in Joe Alts development.... Because he did pan out.
"Joe Alt's father, John Alt, played in the NFL for the Kansas City Chiefs. "
There is no guarantee the child of an NFL player will make it... But it can be an immense advantage!
With the quality of what you've been putting out, you sure deserve more subscribers. The research, the presentation, the graphs, the editing, the narration, all top notch. I'm commenting to hopefully trigger the algorithm to recommend you to more people. Keep it up!
Thank you! Much appreciated...
@@michaelmackelvie Keep going. I'm not sure how inspiring one TH-cam comment can be, but this video is the one that finally compelled me to subscribe. Your videos are novel and cover subjects I've continually thought don't receive nearly enough retrospective coverage considering the depth of coverage they're afforded initially.
He’ll get there. He has the whole package. Got a great voice, presentation and interesting content.
@@michaelmackelvielove your content. The sport insights are great
It found me
"Being an overrated 18 year old shouldn't be viewed as a character defect" is an absolutely savage line to end this video on, well done!
This entire thing was beautiful who is this man I WANNA SHAKE HIS HAND WAR DAMN EAGLE DAMN THE TIDE TO HELL LMFAO 🦅
At the end of the day, it's all about winning championships for the college football fan. As history as shown since these websites became a thing, the more elite your recruiting class the better chance your team has of winning at an elite level.
As a rivals employee, this was excellently done.
y’all suck at scouting
@@calloutcahI think literally anyone would. NFL GMs suck at scouting
@@calloutcahyou wish u had his job 😅
And yet those ratings are for college football saying this person should be able to play day one
You’re a great editor and presenter. My favorite kind of sports content
Thank you my man!
Any other channels you recommend? Love these kind of videos
@@willcarroll9762john bois
From the concepts & analysis to the script & writing to the production & editing, this channel would be impressive as a prime time network show. The use of a critical & analytical approach applied equally to sports & finance offers an outstanding opportunity to demonstrate how this method can work in wildly different fields. This project is going to take off & rightfully so. I’m excited to see what’s in store.
Thank you! I really appreciate that my friend!
Bro, can't imagine all the work behind this videos. Data analysis is always very time consuming. And then producing these amazing videos, and scripting the story behind it. Amazing work! keep it up
The graphics were also top notch. I had to pause the video at several points to enjoy them.
They analysed the wrong data though 🤦♂️
Amazing work again. Really appreciate the level of research and analysis.
Thank you my friend!
Really helps pull back a layer on how corrupt the entire college football conglomerate has become. Sad
There are hundreds of running backs that carry the ball 400 times in a 10 game season...
Michael, your content is legitimately the only channel I've been able to watch the entire video without stopping. So compelling, so powerful, insightful and just the perfect amount of humor. PLEASE keep educating us like this
Incredible in-depth analysis, and the previous video looking into the NFL draft is a great compliment to this. Keep up the good work I look forward to seeing more!
The QB findings are in line with what we've been tracing for 7 years. The needs of a QB in college are considerably different than the NFL.
Needs of the team were different
Aka Johnny Manziel
There is so much more space for improv in college. Players aren't as good and qbs can run around while players get open because they aren't getting closed down
Exactly what I think. COLLEGE recruiters should be judged on COLLEGE success not NFL because that's basically irrelevant to them
If I were an NFL GM, 95 times out of 100, I wouldn't take a QB in the 1st round, especially if the team s*cked. Would probably favor edge rushers instead.
This is a totally new thing. It reminds me of when I saw a Jon Bois video for the first time, not in terms of style necessarily, but just in terms of how cool and different it feels (the toy soldier-style football players probably help that connection too)
This is A+. It’s like you extracted from my brain exactly what I wanted to watch.
I think football is a lot more difficult to predict on a player to player basis. The 5 star high schooler probably didn’t have any injuries, but once you make it to college, careers do end there and in the nfl. Rankings can’t account for that. Also, the mental part, the pressure, or the lack of ridicule at the lower levels can hamper players success when they meet it in college and pros. Adding the element of money also changes ppls drives. The reason I’m guessing a lot of guys who were low or undrafted succeed because of the financial opportunity while others may make their money and coast. Not all just some. Also, how someone’s body matures after 18 is also not predictable which all adds up to make sense why not incredibly accurate
Great comment! As an agent the elephant in the room is psychology. Where is that kid's head? I have seen 4 star players who were spoiled not make it because coaches will not kiss their ass. Also, players who are in private schools often have an artificial advantage of facilities and coaching. EG. Mater Dei in California and Bishop Gorman in Vegas. Also factor in city v suburbia. There is lots of talent in Oakland or places like San Bernardino that do not have the facilities or coaching.
Due to there being more positions in football than any other sport
This channel is super underrated! Would love to see a video on conference realignment
Thanks Andrew!
The way you delivered this information and the general depth of the research is amazing. I've just found your page but I know I'll be watching a lot more of your videos from here on out. There is an art to delivering somewhat dense analytics and you sir do it with a finesse!
16:21 to the end = Outstanding closing thought on an already phenomenal program. My favorite YT sports channel by a mile.
Really love/appreciate the work that you do and the amount of time you put in to produce these awesome videos. Research/data aside, the snippet between 1:00 and 1:25 gave me the chills, and manages to perfectly convey the aura that is CFB.
Southern university band brah!!!! Best in the world 💯💯💯
@@rayzeusmusic What song is it ?
@@islandpenguin5056 my president is black by young jeezy
Yeah I was wondering too what song is that they’re playing in the montage?
@@islandpenguin5056 sorry thought I replied. It’s my president is black by young Jeezy.
Bro I love your videos the cinematography is insane ❤️
Thank you, much appreciated!
@@michaelmackelvieBy any chance do you know the song used from 1:00 to 1:25 ? it's super hype
What you said about RBs is why I think the rookie pay scale should be adjusted for the RB position.
Whereas everyone else is expected to start lower & get that big pay day after their rookie deal, I believe it should be the opposite for RBs. They are used & abused early on, then discarded before they make it to that first big contract.
Teams ride them as hard as they can for those first 4-5 seasons, then cut their losses & replace them once their rookie deal is up. Every other position has a much better chance of getting that first big pay day, just as players enter their prime. But the "prime" for most RBs is those first years, and few teams would shell out big money for a guy that was already heavily used for 4-5 straight seasons.
Corey I have said this my friend! They take the most abuse and are getting paid the least…idk if there’s an answer, but I have proposed the same hypothetical. Not sure if it’d pencil out…
@michaelmackelvie Thinking back on it, I may have heard you talk about this before. Maybe I stumbled across your videos before & didn't realize it, but you may be the one that convinced this needs to change.
My idea is that rookie running backs get a player option going into year 3. If they want to stay with their original team, they can stay for the full contract, but if they’ve become an elite RB, they get the opportunity to test the open market at 24 instead of 26/27.
This was true 20 years ago when backs regularly averaged 350+ totes a season.
Now they're barely averaging 250+ with only the quality backs or completely run-oriented teams giving a back in the area of 300 rushes. Unless your Derrick Henry or a CMC you'll be lucky to tote the rock 350 times a year both rushing and receiving.
As it stands outside of injuries teams don't do RB1 85% of the time now unless they can run, block and catch passes at a pro level. Most backs coming out of college can barely do two of the three at a pro-level at best. 3-down backs are rare enough already but a 3-down back that has all-pro levels of talent? Thats why most get discarded after their rookie deals cause for a situational player you can just draft one or sign one for cheap. The majority of whom are dime a dozen runners who don't provide anything in the passing game. This is why the Steelers will let Najee Harris walk at the end of his contract and fill his void with draftees and free agent signees.
I also like the idea of paying running backs higher on their rookie deals. That being said, the NFL teams will do some shady stuff like claim this dude is a linebacker or tight end, but play him as a running back.
I DEFINITELY needed this. I’m working on a project of ranking all FBS & FCS teams together for the 2023 season. All D1 ranking w/ new strength of schedules elements and everything
These videos deserve a bigger audience, can tell the work that goes in!
This is why the transfer portal will only make the rich get richer because the big programs can now scout players at positions that are a crap shoot to scout in highschool further along in their development, and poach them from smaller schools. The big schools have always had an advantage in recruiting great defensive linemen and running backs, but there was less of a difference at the positions that require intangibles. Not anymore.
I agree, but also the transfer portal will allow someone like an Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen who never got viability of their game in HS to shine in JuCo and get easier opportunities in NCAA. Also much easier for players who need more years of playtime and exposure to get them.
Think how crazy it is that if neither of them hustled like crazy people to get any kind of NCAA offer they would have never even sniffed an NFL field.
It also means that if a school wants to elevate themselves overnight they can…like right now NYS and SUNY doesn’t have a team in a mainstream conference. UB is the flagship but stuck in the MAC. Assuming Albany wasn’t corrupt and SUNY started spending money to enhance their flagship, they could now change the team overnight into every other flagship program like Rutgers or Penn State.
Small schools SHOULD act like feeder programs for larger schools, while larger schools with deep pockets have the opportunity to build teams.
I think the transfer reform a win win all around.
While I agree with your point about smaller schools getting their players poached.. we can all agree that a group of 5 team up until maybe, this new 12 team format, never had a chance to compete with the top power 5 programs poaching in the first place.
This does however, open opportunity up to middle tier power 5 programs that want to take the next step. My Missouri Tigers are a perfect example. 0 bowl wins since 2015. Commit to the portal, invest millions into your program, lobby to pass a state law allowing you to pay HS commits to win in state recruiting battles, and before you know it you’re beating the blue blood Ohio State in a N6 Bowl and picked to make the playoffs in 2025. The group of 5 schools really are getting the worst of this all though.
The bench players for the big programs will leave in droves though
@@jonathanpusar5931By the gods how I hate NFL and it’s fans trying to say how college should be.
👿 Go stanford
Incredible! Amazing production values and fantastic information. Thank you for finally bringing solid data to the public.
THIS was the study I’ve wanted to find out since becoming interested in college football! Thank you!
Being super talented at a young age can be a curse in sports because those players get pushed the hardest. If you want to make it to the nfl you have to make the cut but not be too good that your coach overworks you till you break.
Great production value in this. Top tier narration, music, lighting, pacing, etc
Man I really hope you keep making videos. S-Tier level stuff
Thanks Bryan! Much appreciated man.
I don’t comment on many youtube videos but I have to mention how well done this video is. It’s something I would expect a highly popular channel to put out and you deserve that for sure if you continue this!
The production of these videos always dumbfounds me. This one was cinema
Thank you!
YT algo is amazing for putting this #1 in my feed despite me never seeing a vid from you. this vid right up my alley. great stuff
your editing is always elite. do you do this by yourself or do you have a team?
Dude I just found your channel and I have been watching tons of your videos now. Not only is the quality of your videos amazing, but the topics you pick are unique and interesting.
Thank you!
I did this exact analysis myself for an sb nation article a few years ago. Specifically stars va draft results. Happy to see that we found similar results. The fact that more than 50% of five stars get drafted is really wild. Way way more than I thought it would be. Also i haven’t finished the video but you have to take into consideration that there are only 30 5 stars in a given recruiting class versus thousands of 2 and 3 stars. When you have such a large pool to choose from it makes it more likely that a very small percentage of them will become exceptional, with the total number still being more than the 4 and 5 stars.
I wish these services would have a reranking of their classes 4 years later. I would be fascinated to see who actually had the best recruiting classes from the past vs the theoretical ones we get now that only project what they think. Seems like it would be pretty easy since all the data is out there and all someone has to do is look it up, but I get the idea these sites don't want this done. Perhaps it would show they were not correct with their evaluations, and they don't want that. I think it would be an excellent use for colleges to find coaches who can get max value out of classes, and show which coaches can only recruit and which ones can get the most of their talent. As an example, when Mike Norvell was at Memphis, I don't think he had a recruiting class in the top 50, but he was putting a lot of players in the NFL relative to the rankings and had Memphis at a very high level. I would love to see some kind of ranking system with the job. He did there versus say jimbo fisher. I can't figure out every metric that would be measured, but It just seems like there could be some kind of scale to measure coaches based on their ability to get the most out of their talent. There could be something out there already but if it's being used, I haven't seen it.
Why did you analyse the wrong data then?
This channel is one of the best on the YT. From my experience with some of the writers and evaluators it’s more about relationships ( with the HS coach, the top kids handler & college recruiters) than actually being accurate. Also if a kid has an offer and he goes to a camp that the press is attending, the writers will pump him up. This leads to more top kids showing up, the more top kids the more not top kids equals more money and eyes on the website. I have read and seen scouting sites down grade a kid for not going to a camp….. even say some of their offers were not real.
How many times are people going to pretend that stars dont matter before they understand the math behind just how accurate they actually are. Over the past five years, players ranked as five stars are 15 times more likely to get drafted vs. two stars or lower prospects. Four-star recruits over the past five years are 5.2 times more likely to get drafted over two stars and three-stars are 1.3 times more likely to get picked.
This video is for content purposes mixed with facts about most positions. Higher class football divisions get you noticed faster like Bishop Gorman,IMG,Mater Dai etc.
This dude reminds me of those videos your teachers would play that are so damn engaging you cannot look away
can someone please tell me what song was playing @1:21
rap mix -AllDanceteams
it sounds like horrific AI slop
@@TestChannelWow-bh7ys what is buddy on about
That is “The Human Juke Box” Southern University Marching Band
You should know that was the Human JukeBox
It is remarkable to me how few subscribers you have and, whether you've had offers or not yet, that you haven't even done an ad read. This channel is incredible quality - please keep up the great content!!
It's interesting to know that 21% of 5-star became 1st rounders and 60% of them are drafted. That's actually incredibly accurate. You can't simply judge accuracy purely by percentages. You have to judge it also based on "needle in a haystack" effect, i.e., people say the chances of making the NFL is one in a million. Well, if you're a 5-star, 1 in a million becomes 6 out of 10. That's many orders of magnitude than pure chance.
Also numbers like "13% of All Pros are 5-stars and 60% are 3-stars are lower" are not meaningful and can be very misleading. It's not meaningful without knowing the ratio between players who are 5-stars and players who are 3-stars and lower.
Bingo.
I agree, and I'm baffled that the video didn't take this into account. If 5-stars are 13% of the all-pros despite being only like 1% of all recruits, that's incredible Surprised I had to scroll so far down to find comments like this.
So glad to have been a part of that along the way.
As someone who played high school football in Miami, and played with and against multiple 3,4, and 5 Star recruits.
Scouts don't base the star ratings off intangibles almost at all. I know multiple 4 star recruits who weren't good in highschool, but had good combine results and therefore were high rated recruits. Combine is like 95% of the rating. Almost no one is even looking for intangibles.
Big facts.Intangibles can be coached.Tangibles like size and speed aren't coachable.
Subscribed, a fun presentation and also very insightful. 👍
Your entire premise is flawed from the outset. There are only roughly 25-35 5 star recruits in any given year, so of course there are more 2 and 3 star players in the NFL. Especially when there are over 250 picks in each NFL draft. Even in a great year there are only 40 or so 5 star recruits.
32 to be exact (32 NFL teams)
Exactly @playmaker7331
You've become my fav youtuber recently, if only people knew what they're missing ! Hoping you get the recognition you deserve soon.
Never watched a video until today, just sent it to a few people around a college scouting department. High quality work that I think we can look at and really learn something from.
The quality of that College football montage hit me so hard it made me miss my alma mater. And it was a throwaway bit for this video. Excellent work, sir.
@@promptlyjoebrown4305 that segment took the most effort actually…a lot of sound mixing and searching for clips/timing. I put a lot into it and it means a lot to hear others enjoyed it.
Firstly, this channel will blow up. You're doing an incredible job. One flaw in this video, however, is your analysis towards running backs not being taken in the early rounds. Its not due to short lifespan, because if that were true, teams would likely do the opposite and draft them high since that would provide a fantastic RB on a rookie contract for 5 years... which is cheap. The reason is instead that teams are realising that the running back position just isn't that important (with a very, very few amount of individual exceptions). We know this because the data surrounding replacement running back performance is surprisingly similar to starting running backs. Basically, tackles and guards are far more important to the running game than the guys that actually run with the ball.
This is the first video of yours I've seen and it's an instant subscribe from me, which is RARE. Great job!
Quality stuff as usual. You'll become HUGE in the TH-cam Sports Analysis field in no time!
This was one of the best football videos I’ve ever seen on TH-cam
The most professional sports content I've seen on youtube. We need to get the word out!
Man…really appreciate that, thank you!
As someone who enjoys data science and College Football (especially recruiting), this is an amazing video. I might just subscribe
This man has mastered the art…
of the dramatic… pause.
Excellent content. I’m glad TH-cam has 1.25x speed so I can watch it.
Thanks for reminding me about the speed option. I like this guy’s content but he talks as if every sentence is extremely profound and it’s too annoying for me
Just subscribed. I hadn't come across your videos before, but based on the quality I was sure you had at least a couple hundred thousand subs already. This is genuinely some of the best production quality I've seen from any sports channel. I love the way you presented the data and the use of the figurines in stop motion is awesome. Looking forward to watching the rest of your work.
The most fascinating article on college star rankings I've ever seen. I've always speculated that the positions that require intelligence and discipline correlate poorly from HS to the NFL. This solidifies that theory for me! Great job!
First ever video I watch from your channel, instant subscription, high quality content
Second video I've watched of yours. All I can say is keep killing it! Super impressed.
Like are you channeling your inner Carl Sagan at 16:38? Wowser!
So i discovered your videos 6 months ago, and i must say, your videos never disappoint!
WOW, that was fricken awesome, gotta love ur content!!
Just watched all of your videos and subscribed. Appreciate your insights and investigative approach, thanks!
Thanks James!
A question I have wondered about for a long time. Beautifully done.
Easily my favorite new sports analytics channel. Fascinating stuff as always
There has never been a better video on the subject. Fantastic job!
This was an exceptional video in every sense of the word.
best production i have ever seen on a football video. props keep it up
Excellent work as always. The stop motion was the cherry on top.
Please keep these NFL evaluation videos going. They're awesome!
Now thats a high quality video roght there. Great soundtrack, buttery smooth voice, an interesting title and an incredible amount if legwork. Looking forward to kore videos
As a football junky this definitely one of the best videos I’ve watch in a while
Man, this production is fantastic. Based on production alone, this is better than any 30-for-30 or NFL special that I’ve seen.
And this video is a great concept to look into.
First time seeing a video of yours. Definitely earned a sub; I hope you keep this up because this is IT.
Truly fantastic analysis. Not many people put out content like this, and it's honestly a great watch every time you post a new video. Thank you for your insight, and keep up the great work!
I'm not a big sports person but I love learning random things and this channel is perfect for that :D
This is insane statistics. So much effort. Loved the video. Subscribed.
A great as always. Love the data. Love the analysis. Keep the charts coming!
Amazing content, Sports Vsauce!! Dope vids keep it going 👍🏾👍🏾
Great video! I had a couple things I was going to mention before I watched it, but I waited and you addressed both of them! Very entertaining!
I can't believe you're only at 58K subs. Wow. I don't even really follow sports anymore, but damn if your videos aren't thought-provoking and well put together.
Only complaint about your videos is that I wish they were longer and I wish there were more. Seriously great work.
one of those times that the subscriber count doesnt match the video content and quality at all. subscribed! awesome data analysis and presentation
Thanks brother! Much appreciated
Wow I could have sworn I was watching a video with atleast a million views. Great quality keep up the good work.
So well done. Thank you for sharing this info.
Great video! Editing and production had me sucked in as always. Would love a video about Legendary NFL Coaches and how their success correlated to the success of their coaching tree
As a youtube scout of ~17 years, this guy is gonna be huge. This is top quality.
Glad this popped into my feed….High quality stuff with solid analytics…Subscribed!
Thank you for this incredible video! The quality of it is just amazing. Huge respect from Germany! Really enjoyed it
Keep up the work. Videos with production like this keep people engaged throughout and lead to more likes, views, subs, etc. You’re headed up
Awesome content! So many variables in recruiting certain positions
That “College Football” edit was fucking crazy 🔥🔥🔥 had to subscribe. Keep it up!!!
Man the research and ability to teach here is great🙌
curious if the linebacker issues come from high school rankings dubbing pass rushers d-ends more often than the NFL does. looked at 2012 all pro team for example and Aldon Smith/DeMarcus Ware are All-Pro outside LBs but recruited as d-ends.
This was an extremely well done video. Great job!
Awesome job man! I hope your channel continues to grow. You are so different, so original, so interesting! Keep it up!!!!
The best creator on this app. It's unbelievable how under the radar you're flying -- a mix of KTO and JxmmyHighroller, but smarter. Great stuff please keep it up!!
You can't hide hard work. There's your intangible. He who works the hardest.....
I dropped by this video and I’d like to say well done. I loved the mix of graphics of actual footage and stats. I think overrated is a bad term that puts so much pressures on players, while underrated is what makes players feel they can try harder to show up more.
I don’t pay attention to lower levels of football since I grew up outside the US so thanks for opening my eyes to what those rankings are and how they actually correlate in the NFL
Great video. I feel like entitlement plays a big role. Especially the lack of growth in the highly ranked QBs.
Highly ranked QBs are the way to go. I’ve analyzed all of them, tracking production at the high school, college, and pro levels. You’re statistically more likely to succeed with elite QB recruits, at each level of football. The analysis in the video is just wrong and the most wins list he provided had a ton of guys that either predated rankings or arrived right at the beginning. I mean, the guy pointed out that rivals arrived in 1998, but pointed to Peyton Manning (from before that) as a 5-star. It’s a half truth, as Manning was a huge recruit, but as with several others on the list, he doesn’t fit into the parameters established