US economic data on the surface appears strong, but one should spend some time reading the Fed's Beige book to see a somewhat different picture. Most Federal Reserve members are reporting softening/weakening data in their respective regions of America, primarily why they moved to cut 50bps in October. This is a trend that has established itself over the last 3 - 6 months and given the nature of slowdowns, seems likely to continue. I don't believe a one-off positive surprise in the jobs data will be enough to reverse this trend, particularly given full time employment in the private sector is contracting, with the Federal, state and local governments the only sector holding up the job market. One should ask themselves; can the government take up all the slack in the employment market? I suspect not, particularly once the US election has passed.
The Fed can just continue injecting liquidity and monetising government spending. Perpetually. So yea, likely at some stage most private companies will either go out of business or be absorbed by the state. Then we will join the ranks with Venezuela and Zimbabwe
Joye talking up his book as usual.
Thanks Chris and Coolabah Capital. Great insight as usual and always. Thanks to LW as well.
Have to listen to this 3x just to keep up with Chris Joy's simplified explanation.
Well done on the big US deal..
Christopher Joye is an investing legend. Interesting times coming up with the US election almost here!
US economic data on the surface appears strong, but one should spend some time reading the Fed's Beige book to see a somewhat different picture. Most Federal Reserve members are reporting softening/weakening data in their respective regions of America, primarily why they moved to cut 50bps in October. This is a trend that has established itself over the last 3 - 6 months and given the nature of slowdowns, seems likely to continue. I don't believe a one-off positive surprise in the jobs data will be enough to reverse this trend, particularly given full time employment in the private sector is contracting, with the Federal, state and local governments the only sector holding up the job market. One should ask themselves; can the government take up all the slack in the employment market? I suspect not, particularly once the US election has passed.
The Fed can just continue injecting liquidity and monetising government spending. Perpetually. So yea, likely at some stage most private companies will either go out of business or be absorbed by the state.
Then we will join the ranks with Venezuela and Zimbabwe
How did his property call in 2023 of property prices falling by 30% go? Markets are great humblers even for Chris Joye ….
Christopher Joye is a fascinating guy.
I thought this would be insightful commentary. Turns out it is an infomercial for Joye’s fund.