Sabin Roman: Modelling the Collapse of Complex Societies

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.พ. 2025
  • Modelling the Collapse of Complex Societies
    In this presentation, Sabin discussed his work on modeling societal collapse, emphasizing the importance of finding consistent patterns over long periods of time. He presented a model that successfully predicted the collapse of a historical case and discussed the dynamics of systems over a thousand-year time scale, focusing on the equivalent of gravity that operates in this timeframe. The meeting also touched on the limitations of applying dynamic system models to complex systems, the role of technology in modern society, and the current state of global energy production and economic growth.
    SPEAKER:
    Sabin Roman, a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, focuses on developing interdisciplinary tools for modeling complex systems using machine learning. His research includes mathematical modeling of long-term societal evolution and potential collapse, employing methods like dynamical systems theory, network science, and agent-based computing.
    SYSTEMIC MODELING AND APPLICATIONS SEMINAR SERIES:
    CLEA seminars are taking place simultaneously at online (via Zoom) and streaming (via TH-cam).
    Read more at clea.research....

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    The modeling of the collapse of complex societies explores the dynamics that lead to societal decline and disintegration, drawing from various interdisciplinary approaches such as sociology, economics, anthropology, and systems theory. This research highlights how societies, once thriving, can unravel due to a combination of factors, often making use of mathematical models and simulations to understand the complex relationships at play. These models attempt to capture the many variables-social, environmental, and economic-that interact within a society and lead to its potential collapse.
    One of the core themes in this research is the idea that complex societies are highly sensitive to a range of internal and external pressures. These can include environmental changes, resource depletion, political instability, economic inequality, and social strife. The collapse of such societies is often not a singular event, but rather the result of cascading failures across different sectors. These models help to simulate how these different factors may evolve over time, leading to tipping points where the system becomes unable to sustain itself.
    A central focus of the work is the role of resource management. In many collapsed societies-whether ancient or modern-the depletion of critical resources, such as water, arable land, or energy sources, has played a significant role in the decline of social structures. For example, the collapse of the Mayan civilization is often attributed in part to deforestation and soil degradation, which undermined agricultural productivity. Similarly, modern societies face risks from resource depletion, particularly in areas like energy, food, and water. These models provide insights into how the overexploitation of these resources might destabilize societal foundations, leading to economic and political breakdown.
    Another key area of focus is the impact of inequality on societal collapse. In many cases, societies with extreme wealth disparities, where the elite class enjoys vast resources while the majority faces deprivation, are more vulnerable to collapse. This inequality can lead to social unrest, loss of public trust in governing institutions, and, ultimately, political disintegration. These models often incorporate the ways in which inequality exacerbates other stresses, creating a feedback loop that accelerates the collapse.
    Political instability and the breakdown of governance are also integral to understanding societal collapse. As societies grow more complex, the structures that govern them-whether democratic or authoritarian-become more fragile. Poor governance, corruption, and failure to adapt to changing conditions can result in the erosion of social cohesion and the breakdown of critical institutions. These models help simulate how different types of governance structures might react under stress, and how the erosion of these structures contributes to societal collapse.
    Environmental factors, such as climate change, are also integral to understanding societal collapse in these models. Environmental stressors-whether sudden, like volcanic eruptions, or gradual, like changing climate patterns-can weaken a society’s ability to adapt and thrive. For instance, the models might show how a long-term drought or rise in sea levels could lead to a chain reaction of agricultural failure, mass migration, and eventual political instability, all contributing to the collapse of societal structures.
    While this work is deeply theoretical, it has practical implications for modern societies. By understanding the dynamics of collapse, these models provide valuable insights into how contemporary societies can potentially avoid similar pitfalls. This includes emphasizing the importance of resource management, reducing inequality, strengthening governance, and preparing for environmental changes.
    Furthermore, the research underscores the importance of resilience in complex societies. Rather than viewing collapse as an inevitable outcome, these models suggest that societies with robust social structures, equitable resource distribution, and adaptive political systems may be better equipped to weather the stresses that could lead to collapse. In other words, the collapse of a society is not solely a consequence of its inherent complexity, but a result of its failure to respond to the challenges it faces in a timely and effective manner.
    In conclusion, modeling the collapse of complex societies offers a powerful framework for understanding the interdependent factors that contribute to societal disintegration. Through the use of simulations and systems theory, this work helps reveal the critical role of resource management, inequality, governance, and environmental factors in shaping the fate of societies. It provides valuable lessons for contemporary societies, offering a roadmap for avoiding collapse through adaptive, resilient strategies.