Has populism been thwarted in France?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
- 📰 Subscribe to UnHerd today at: bit.ly/3Qdkd5y
UnHerd's Flo Read meets Louis-Vincent Gave.
Watch it on the UnHerd website: unherd.com/watch-listen/has-p...
Listen to the podcast: plnk.to/unherd?to=page
Is the Right-wing playing a long game in France? Analyst Louis-Vincent Gave joins UnHerd's Florence Read to discuss how yesterday's shock surge against Marine Le Pen could come to benefit the National Rally.
Follow UnHerd on social media:
Twitter: / unherd
Facebook: / unherd
Instagram: / unherd
TikTok: / unherdtv
// TIMECODES //
00:00 - 01:06 - Introduction
01:06 - 04:16 - Why did polls get the French election so wrong, and how are markets reacting?
04:16 - 12:26 - Is this a victory for Macron and a defeat for the Right? How will Macron deal with the Left?
12:26 - 19:41 - How does populism in France compare to the rest of Europe?
19:41 - 23:43 - How the divided French Right eventually united
23:43 - 25:40 - The role of Trump and Biden
25:40 - 29:57 - What does the future look like for the French Left and Right?
29:57 - Concluding thoughts
#UnHerd #france #election
![[#SHORTS CLIP] ครูอึ้ง กรรมการอึ้ง ฮ่าๆ l ซานิเบาได้เบา l One Playground](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/qeBTuMJs4t0/mqdefault.jpg)
It is interesting to see that thwarting what the majority of the French people wanted is "democracy" while accepting what the majority of people wanted in Hungary is "dictatorship." European "values" got devaluated quite fast I must admit.
Well said. Things are not always what they seem, especially when it comes to listening to the media.
The majority didn’t vote for them.
The majority of French voters chose parties that explicity refuse to form a coalition with RF.
Also, shouldn't the English fix their *own* country ?
Seems like a Labour landslide is way - WAY -worse, than a hung Assembly with at least one third of people who care about their country.
How is your it thwarting the majority if more people are voted for other parties? As an American, where literally there isn't a 1 to 1 vote, and the Republicans have one the popular vote 1 time in the last maybe 6 or 7 elections I'm confused by this sentiment.
How pathetic, that the French must have their budget approved by European bureaucrats. All of Europe is a disgrace. It disgusts me that the world sent so many men to die to save Europe from Hitler, and the Europeans have so deeply disrespected that sacrifice.
Great point.
Well we share the same currency so we can't have crazy deficits paid by the others, that's fairly logical.
@@aesma2522 Fucking loser. I'm gonna have to get all my guns out of the safe just to forget about your stupid comment.
I think you mean they fought for the wrong side
Yep
No, RN got the most votes. They just came in third because of parliamentary shenanigans. The RN will only keep growing.
They’re acting like this was polling miscalculation 😂
The policy’s pursed by Macron and the left are what made this right wing undercut. If they keep pursuing these policy’s they’ll create a monster. The Jihadist and Communist had to team up to defeat Le Pen. That’s an unholy alliance that won’t last long 😂
If you combine the votes for the centrist and the left, they are more than what RN got. So it's clear that the French did, in fact, reject the “far right.”
How many votes did they get? Like 15 million votes?
Correct. They are also the largest party in parliament.
@@Stoddardian the combined votes for the left and centrist are more than what RN got. So the far right did lose.
The French Flag at Rassemblement National rallies, the European Union Flag at Macron's rallies and the Palestinian flag at the left's rallies.
This is exactly it. Thank you.
Macron is leftist. The EU is leftist.
I’m French and I must say you hit the nail on the head!
It is so telling, isn’t it? Show me your flag and I’ll tell you who you are….
Why is a flag so important to you lot!
@@lynnevenables7193 you have to be kidding, right? Its france. Of course the french flag must be the most important.
Surely le pens movement is only going to grow bigger and bigger, it's inevitable
Clearly there are more French people that are left leaning then right leaning....
depends on the (illegal) immigration rate and if illegals are able to vote
So many folks seem to swallow so much of Putin's propaganda.... LMAO...
I mean they got 4.3% of the vote share in 2007, 18% in 2022, and 37% in 2024 so history shows us they’re on an upward trajectory.
@@Burrburrcloud That's not true.
France is in a little more chaos today than yesterday - nothing new in that.
France IS chaos…..a shit of a place
As a journalist said, "Macron is the Architect of Chaos".
Not so. After the EU elections, now Macron successfully slammed the door in the face of Le Pen. A masterstroke.
Every time this guy is interviewed it is always full of common sense
Do all of Putin's bots feel that way?
To my opinion, it is fake common sense and full vested interest. Mind the trap!
@@bhuddy1832 what does Putin have anything to do with this. If anything, this election proved one point, Russia involvement…..if there was any……just didn’t work.
France is just a mess, has been for over 40 years……a s…t hole if you will
He is brilliant.
@@cnam1258 yep. Like a lure. Voters are easily fished wish flashy lures. 😟
All you need to know.
That chart shows a "far-right" alliance whatever the hell that is.
While the "n3w popular front" comprised of communists isnt labeled "far left"
This guy is great. He should be on more American shows. Thank you Unherd.
As an Irish woman I'm sick of this Europeans need to revolt against this nonsense.
Ireland, will not be alllowed to leave the EU..ever.
You are so deeply owned by brussels
you mean a civil war ?
The EU works like a country. Ireland functions like a semi independent state with limited home rule.
Populism is such a lazy and inadequate word.
And hateful and fearmongering.
All isms are lazy and inadequate.
If there's one thing the far left are good at, it's coining a term.
Well the left use it when they are losing. The left also use the term "far right" when a party not as left of themselves is winning.
Especially as the ones using it are the real populists...or fascists.
We all voting against WEF
I weep for France, such a beautiful country with rich history going down the drain.
The French reject a party with ties to racism and fascism. That's good enough even though I'm not a fan of the far-left.
The conservative party lost in the UK because they have shifted left. They should more correctly be called Labour Lite.
People have not shofted to the Faaar Right, they have stayed where they were while the partiies shfted left.
Can you qualify that? The Party of George Osborne's austerity, Jacob Rees-Mogg's ans Liz Truss's planned further deregulation of The City and financial district. That is 'Left'?
What beats me is that this French guy tells it exactly as it is and in a very articulate way while morons on French news channel are in total denial of the reality……or rather to scared to voice it…….or ordered by their boss to shut up.
I am much better off reading the foreign press when it comes to France or watch UnHerd and listen to Mr Gave.
Trust me, what he is describing is the French reality…..no gilding the lily here
All of the French sources I'm listening to are not holding back one bit. I don't know what you're listening to.
Sounds like America
@@l.w.paradis2108what are you listening to/reading/watching?
@@Sars1-k6f All of their shows with anchors who are pro-Macron and grill LFI leadership, which describes pretty much their entire MSM.
@@Sars1-k6fI'm interested in that as well.
37% of people voted for National Rally... by far in first position in popular vote... yet they are 3rd in seats. On the other hand the left got 25% of the vote and get the most seats...
"Populism" has not been twarted. The voice of the people has been twarted. And it will give more strenght to "populism" in the long run.
"And lest we allow those who hate us to define us - let all know - it is not out of hate and bigotry, but out of love and loyalty that we shout: WE ARE A PEOPLE!”
Where is that from, please?
By populism do you mean the will of the people?
"The system is rigged so that the peasants have no power". Count of St Germain.
Yes that's the point. And the left voters are all concentrated in urban areas so they can regroup and riot. Electors of the National Rally are all dispersed in the countryside so they are not heard.
We live under a thin veneer of civilisation. The veneer is getting thinner by the day.
Has "populism" been thwarted? Oh, you mean the will of the people? Yes, it has been thwarted.
Has it been? So you only think there is right wing populism. That's even in question. Right wing populists want what business wants. Not what people want.
If the 'will of the people' merely finds expression in who holds parliamentary seats, it was never up to much. On the other hand, RN has as its supporters the largest share of population, more than any other party: this could be used every day of the year to advance their cause, not on voting days. This momentum needs to be harnessed.
@@1848revolt Right-wing populists mainly want migration stopped and reversed. They want freedom of speech, a Rechtstaat instead of a totalitarian tyranny of "values" and sovereignty back to the nation state. Nothing to do with business.
It's not going to go away.
@@1848revoltthe growing right wing wants France to be France again. The more diversity the more right leaning people become. Its happening all over the west
I'd dispute the claim that we've really 'split the right' in the UK. There hasn't been a right in the UK for a long time. At some point you just have to replace a party that's no longer fit for purpose and take the consequences as they come.
As the saying goes: Vote Labour - have the third world as your neighbour, vote Tory, same story.
I think more in terms of globalist/nationalist today.
J'adore Louis vincent. He is saying exactly what Vernon Bognador said in Saturday's DT. The UK is turning French.
The French Revolution was in 1789. Did we follow them then ? Was there an English revolution?
Orders of magnitude better than mainstream broadcasting.
Fantastic interview so insightful! Louis is great spot on !
Meanwhile like in this country spending on immigration keeps on rising & rising & services have to be cut as a consequence.This "Green & pleasant land" is concreted over in order to house them all & we are supposed to be blithly indifferent to it all?
Sad to say, the vast majority of voters, the normies, are indifferent to it all. Many Conservative supporters chose to abstain rather than vote for Reform. I see little hope for the UK.
@@dpstrial youtube deleted my reply to you.Clearly they are shit scared about letting ordinary people speak.
youtube censorship clearly marks them out as the enemy.
@@dpstrial It will kick off.
@@BritishNaturalist-vb8hj
They definitely are !!!
The UK right was incompetent
Disagree. It was intentional.😊
The Tories are not Right-wing in the least
Torys are the political wing of international finance capitalism.
@robertlynch9678 Their voters are though.
The actual UK right, if such a thing still exists, went from a standing start to the third most popular party in the UK in a month. It had by far the best social media strategy which saw it gain three times the amount of exposure as Labour managed for 1/67th of the cost, and it destroyed possibly the most successful political party in Western history. I can't wait to see what they can do when they are organised.
Violence and chaos is just under the surface in nearly all European countries, including Britain as well as France. The present deconstruction of France in Parliament can happen in Britain if a rerun of 1945 Labour proves to be a failure, which it may well do.
'A rerun of a 1945 Labour'? What semblance does Keir Starmer's Labour have with Clement Attlee's? See plans for the NHS. If anything, the two Labour governments are in stark contrast.
What semblance is there between Clement Attlee's Labour and Keir Starmer's? Not much, as far as I can see.
Denial of reality @@StephenSeabird
@@StephenSeabird Thank God if that is the case, the 45 government was communism light, and not very light. It ruined Britain and it never recovered, nor now can it.
The eu needs dissolving.
No, the UK does.
Why?
@@danesovic7585 Why's that? Can't stand that the British have been one of the most successful nations ever in the world?
@@nigelhard1519A very large power centre with essentially no democratic accountability, opaque processes and detachment from reality?
@@ChristineRead-ck1uq I don't care about about Britain, but the EU is our home. Stop asking us to dissolve it.
This is a terrific podcast. UnHerd is increasingly one of my go-to channels to help make sense of complex political events.
My God France is in trouble right now, real trouble.How could they possibly have voted like this?
Thank you Flo and Louis-Vincent for giving us the full picture of the current political landscape in France.
Seems like a last gasp of the French people before they accede to diminish and fade into the West - like the elves in Tolkien.
The pollsters couldn't have known that the small left and far-left parties would join forces at the last minute. They don't have crystal balls.
No, but I bet Macron did...
they did it last time also
rishi didnt count on reform either, it seems, some election result similarities, perhaps.
And the centre Right Republicans.
Capitalism and Socialism working together to stop Nationalism.
No crystal balls and also the 20th century did not happen.
The RN got over 1.3x the number of votes that the left alliance did.
On Sunday it more than doubled the margin over the left alliance it had the 1st round.
Left-leaning media: "Voters came together en masse to avoid the horror of a conservative government! Historic! Heroic!"
The trick is that the 'voters' they care about aren't the people but the parliamentarians - the real 'demos' in their 'democracy'.
Best assessment yet that I've seen of the French election results.
A pretty clinical assessment of the various characteristics of French politics and the potential issues of dealing with the EU.
No dramatics, no evident/obvious bias. Wish there was more of it to be found.
choices are spend more, spend a lot more, spend a way lot more.
Flo, we DO have a philosophical left in the UK, which controls all our institutions: Academia, Police, Civil Service and NHS. It is not coming from a political party, it comes from indoctrination of University graduates in extreme-leftist Marxist ideologies of CRT and Identity politics. Ironically, though these arrived at our shores via America, their origin was French Intellectuals, such as Foucault and Derrida. As others have observed, the fault is not with the foolish young ideologues - it is with the adults who paid attention to them...
Check out the Frankfurt School,usual suspects in there.
you should listen to CanadianPatriot press/M. Ehret
Well, that isn't as ridiculous as the prevailing story in the US.
@@l.w.paradis2108 It's fundamentally true. The Frankfurt School moving to Columbia was the catalyst and it was done because 70's French Marxists could see that Communism had failed in the West, mainly due to the working class failing to rise up. Interestingly it's the working class who are the modern enemy and minorities have become the lionised victims of their bigotry and hatred.
@@rigilchrist So you admit then all the highly educated people are left wing.
I'm sorry what? Since when is France unable to decide on their own budget? That is where the source of real independence lies. Vive la liberté, hein?
Since they adopted the Euro. There is one currency, one central bank so other Euro members will not be happy if one member runs a huge deficit.
@@rodneyfungus8249 Oh, that makes sense, thank you for the explanation!
From Canada: Thanks for an intelligent, informative conversation about what's going on in France. Really enjoyed your guest's ability to express his views knowledgeably, free of distracting emotion, and full of confidently expressed, realistic and common sense views. Refreshing.
Most interesting analysis. Looking forward to hearing more from this man.
Funny reference to Monty Python's Life of Brian.
The guest is wrong an one thing -- the EU most certainly does NOT treat its constituent nations equally! The big nations like France and Germany get carrots, while the little ones get sticks (Hungary, Greece, Portugal, Ireland)
You mean subsidies. Hungary, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland all get large subsidies, not sticks.
Its a joke right ?
Or putting it another way, the french snd germans write the rules, the minnows follow or their money is witheld.
@@chrimbus71the small nations get paid to be ruled by a foreign bureaucracy but for their own good and with European Values
These nations agreed to it. We wanted the money from France and Germany in exchange for giving up a little bit of sovereignty. And I'm crazy grateful for it because us (Slovaks) would live under dictatorship like Belarus at this moment without overlook of the EU.
I think populism relates more to the far left alliance that promises 1600€ net minimum wage, retirement at 60, higher aid for immigrants, etc.
All politics are populists i believe
All I know is I didn’t see any French flags only flags from other countries
I don't know if western "democracy" can withstand any more "saving democracy" 😂
All Western countries are running massive deficits and irresponsible fiscal policies. Coincidence or strategic planning?🤔
It's absolute strategic planning by the likes of Schwab, Soros, Gates etc.
Great Guest
Love Louis Vincent Gave
Governments seem to be able to kick problems down the road a lot longer than the average taxpayer can or would wish to. One could be forgiven for thinking that they have a war or something worse lined up for the time when they can kick it no further.
France counting on the rest of Europe to pay for it? Is this a joke, or the end of the EU?
Democracy is two wolves and a sheep fighting over what's for lunch it's cringe
It's the bloody Hunger Games!
Can someone explain to me in plain English how a country goes from hard right to hard left in less than 2 weeks
Political shenanigans
The various left parties all joined together to make one party to avoid fracturing the vote. So the amount of people voting 'left' didn't really change, it just concentrated the vote to one party.
Then the centre and left parties strategically stood down candidates in different constituencies to minimise where centrist and left parties ran against each other. Basically any centrist or left person had once choice of party to vote for, meaning the vote was really right v centre AND left
@@calzonelover3950 For people always concerned with democracy, that sounds very anti-democratic. Thanks for the explanation.
@@j0n.p And this kind of shenanigans is also what made the Fourth Republic fall in the 50's.
Simple, 1) they were cheated out of seats, 2) the left teamed up with the far left.
The Islamic republic of France ☪️
The problem isn’t religion; it’s race. Even if the migrants were Christian, if they’re African, they’re African. And France won’t be France.
Nice Life of Brian reference!
Very good presenter
Excellent analysis and commentary, informed and informative; insightful.
Shocking to hear that even one of top dogs of Europe is so much controlled by Brussels. In the hindsight much less surprising to see what has happened to Poland and Hungary
What a mess of a country
Freedom for the nations of Europe
Great interview
A+ for the Monty Python reference.
The interviewed says something that is the reverse and the interviewer does not correct . ( An example : him saying the right when he meant the left , yet she doesn't correct ! This is done a lot in all countries with no corrections . )
Has populism or democracy been thwarted? 37% of the vote and the largest party. That’s not a great scenario for democracy.
Eh? How has democracy been thwarted?
@@onepartyroule because RN has got the most percentage of votes that a single party received, yet it is power is limited
Simply Macron made a dirty play, basically he sacrificed his party representation and gave it to the far left.
@@hasanabduqayumov Which is not at odds with democracy. Maybe you don't know what democracy means?
@@hasanabduqayumovthere’s two categories that are important then, one is a plurality of vote and the other is the ratio of the vote. Just because someone has the largest percentage of vote does not give them majority of power, that’s not how democracy works. Get the plurality of vote, which is literally how democracy works.
What an insightful presentation! I now feel slightly more optimistic for my French friends.
Optimistic? Are you drunk ?
@@Bruno-tm3xooptimistic in the fact that the right wing will do better next election
@@skillfuldabest French voters are fickle. Had Macron organised a referendum on immigration and applied danish like policies, the RN would be on life support as we speak.
This is exactly what happened in Danemark where they are blessed not being saddled with a basket case like Melenchon and his cronies.
Haha, take that population! You've been thwarted again!
Beware of the mob, they don’t think or vote rationally.
Exactly, let's how long this lasts.
Good program.
Excellent analysis! I think your guest is right on and some very tough times are coming for the French Republic. If the EU calls for austerity, France will go through what Greece went through. It will be painful to watch.
Austerity ? At the time of funding Ukraino, and war ? I don't think so😅.
End socialism forever
If you knew what socialism and capitalism in fact were. But you don't know.
It doesn't feel like it right now for NR I'm sure, but this is good for them in the long run. I think the chance that NR was going to win the 50% of seats needed to win the majority outright was close to 0. But now the government is in indisputably left-wing hands. When the next 3 years are a disappointing slogfest for France, and I believe they will be, NR will be able to point to the failings of the system and rally for change, instead of having to try to hold together a cobbled coalition with emsemble for the next 3 years and getting the finger pointed at them for the stagnation.
His analyze was spot on
As always very interesting and bring some perspective to the situation
Great analysis.
Thank you!
Did candidates dropping out of races have any effect on this election outcome?
It's so tiring that media and "populists" insist on country wide polls in UK and Canada and the USA when total numbers are IRRELEVANT. We have electoral systems that elect regionally. As it SHOULD be!
Excellent talk
Not sure what you mean when you use convenient (useless) labels such as Populism. The people that voted are still there, and the change that they wanted is still real. There is nothing to be thwarted. This is democracy. Time will tell how the current political spectrum in France will evolve.
Do you sincerely believe this?? The largest voting bloc has been totally "thwarted". Good luck with that lol
Brilliant talk, thanks!
Excellent analysis
Super interesting, thanks.
Marine le pen amazing brave lady
I don't think that democracy means the same thing to the elite.
Good show. FR and USA in same situation. The aristocracy did not listen to the population. They enriched themselves, now the rest of us have to deal with the mess. I fear for my son and grandchildren. Because they are the ones who will suffer.
Very good presentation. Thanks 👍
Great. Now the french can keep the boat people
Thats actually hilariously true!
Nope…….we’ll keep sending them over to you
@@Bruno-tm3xo are you racist or something?
Populism will always be in jeopardy while the whiff of fascism retains.
Being as a foreigner (non-European), I am so surprised to hear that France has a large conservative supporters! I always think French are very left leaning and it’s their culture and even life style 😅
I thought they just don’t like so many uncontrolled immigrants (both legal and illegal) and can no longer bear with them particularly those importers islamic terrorists and their toxic mindset and laws and culture.
Yeah the right fell short always will in France French Addicted to Idea of a Free Lunch
The Free lunch will come at a very high price when the bill gets sent out .
The migrant invaders will soon EAT their lunch!
4:15 No, in Britain it is not bc the right is divided. Tories and Reform combined still don't make up a majority. In Britain, the sheep preferred the familiar slavery to unfamiliar freedom.
The Tory and reform didn’t unite at all, what are you talking about
@@AllanHinde-mb2pr Did I say "united"? I said "combined". I.e., if we add up all tory seats and all reform seats, labour still has more than the right do. So, divided or not divided, the right lost. Division has nothing to do with this defeat.
@@williammkydde You've combined the seats won...
Popular vote (votes received by party)
Labour 9.6 million.
Conservative 6.7 million.
Reform 4 million.
I believe the turnout was around 60%
Labour have received votes from around 20% of the electorate to achieve their landslide election result. Losing over 500,000 votes from their 2019 election result with a larger electorate to draw from...
Unfamiliar freedom? No. They preferred having adults in charge rather than an extended clown show.
@@williammkydde division of people, division of ideas, division of belief (okay I’m nitpicking)
Loved this discussion!
Democracy that thwarts democracy………………
The Euro is toast.
Populism to thwart populism?
Excellent guest and great podcast 👍👍👍
France has been waffling on going full-on neoliberal - that it has high government spending is a function of that politic - the majority don't want US imported unjust economics; and I would say they France is now in an excellent position to be a part of a global reset away from neoliberalism as it continues to collapse globally.
A loss for Macron's 'far-centrists' (my brand new term ;)
@@MichaelHolloway I call them "radical centrists"
Labour are center right so the right did ok in the end
All the signs are that Starmer’s Labour are very left wing
@@rodneyfungus8249 What signs? Not scraping the two child cap on benefits?
Such intelligent conversation.
Great analysis. Politicians have turned a blind eye to the symptoms caused by mass migration for too long.
It's actually sad that people have to vote for far-right parties before politicians wake up and change course.
How accurate are french election counts!