The Bitcoin crowd not understanding MSTR is ironic, considering many of them were so early on Bitcoin. MSTR isn't just some dumb tech company. It's an expression of mathematical genius, much like Bitcoin itself. The NAV will INCREASE over time. It's a quadratic polynomial regression. Right now, it's selling at a discount.
Nothing wrong with swing trading micro either. It’s predictable and easily tradable with the multiples it does. Even with taxes. Have a long position set in the coin and the stock. Then have another position you take profits from and buy the dip. This is not hard. It’s been so easy to make money in these cycles.
Of course it makes sense. Same thing markets always do, projecting future growth and then bringing it into the present. Same as Tesla stock rising for years before Tesla earned a single dollar in profit.
The Saylor bank angle is most interesting to me. He sees the scarcity and has went gungho all in. What will MSTR in this scenario? Impossible to know I guess
$MSTR is looking great. These crypto pennies are flying today too.. $BTCWF $CYFRF just signed POMP and $SPMTF news today at .02 the next one. Easy money. Anyone else following??
Thanks for these videos, they explain mstr much better than any other I have seen! I have some questions maybe you can answer: they sell bonds at a low interest rate so they are able to pay that interest from the software business, but this means there is a limit to how much they can borrow (I assume the rate is not literally 0%, as that would make no sense unless converting the bond is more favourable than buying the stock directly). If they sell more bonds than they can pay the interest on, they would need to sell bitcoin to pay for it which is a problem if bitcoin drops in price. I also don't understand how this is sustainable, surely when the rate at which they are able to sell more bonds drops below the rate at which existing bonds are being converted, there will be share dilution?
Couple things here. Their last bond offering was actually at 0%, bond buyers value it because of the underlying, also lots of Delta hedging by bond arbitrators. Their debt is only at 25% right now, so very sustainable. They can raise money to pay off bond interest payments by the money they make from their business like you mentioned, but also, they could issue new bonds to pay old ones, and issue atm shares to raise cash to pay their bonds.
To understand MSTR, it is probably helpful to look at the sub prime mortgage bust. This thing will go down, it is just a matter of time. That being said, I will make as much money as I can in the meantime. Hopefully, I will be able to jump out at the right time.
I don't think it's fitting to compare it to the sub prime mortgage situation. Mstr has modest leverage and none of their debt is secured by their Bitcoin. They are also the largest corporate holder of the most pristine capital ever created. Yes they will have drawdowns and their price will go down lots in a BTC bear market, but still I see no comparison to the sub prime mortgage bust unless I'm misunderstanding what you meant
In a tax advantage account could it be wise to sell mstr after it hits up eg 80% then buy back after a crash as it crashes every 2-3 months at least if not more
More btc per share is the simplest way to explain it. And correct me if im wrong, but does that mean the NAV will likely compress over time while the share price possibly rises?
i guess there will be additional dilutions when the bonds are converted into shares in a few year no? I have the feeling that this bitcoin yield Saylor gives us doesnt take into account the future dilutions. What do you think?
The chart from the video accounts for "fully diluted assumed share count" meaning as if each convertible outstanding will convert to shares And the shares that the bond holder will receives will be about 1/3rd less than what they would have been able to acquire with the "loaned" amount of money that the bond represents. This is because the "strike price" or "conversion price" of the bond is set to +55% the market value of the share at the date of the convertible auction. Further, the share price in and of itself whenever its at a premium relative to the bitcoin market value essentially lowers dillution of their strategy substantially, whenever theyre exchanging share-offerings for btc, which means including these bonds. You can picture how theres a connection between the purchasing power of a stack of shares and the current bitcoin price: Simply, its all entirely reflected within the fact that theres a ratio between the NetAssetValue of the company and the markets pricing of this NAV through the price of the stock. The NAV is directly proportional to the current market price of btc, and the more highly priced market cap of the company reflects how much current purchasing power at the current market condition can be extracted from generating some additional percentage of shares, in essence. So then the question is can they keep this NAV premium high as the company scales in size? Can they continue to borrow money from the market in this fashion and endlessly turn over new shares? Id say yeah probably, in total. Theres probably going to be a bit bumpy of a ride in the meantime, and bear markets might temporarily punish MSTR worse than BTC, to my understanding. But anyways, you should throw some spare cash into the stock, whatever your conscience can bear.
@@bitcoinnotcrypto Ill make at least 50% on this in next 6 months. You on the other hand will lose it all when MSTR goes bankrupt and creditors sell off the bitcoin.
I sold MSTR and the top, and started buying back in today. If it gets around 300 I’ll be all the way back in. The good think about btc and MSTR is they are actually fairly predictable in these cycles. I mostly hold the coin and trade micro. I have a small, roughly 20% position in micro that I hold.
If MSTR can provide value outside of custodianship of BTC (which it cannot), then its overhead costs will not justify holding over native BTC after speculative buy pressure ceases and the bear market shakes it down to true NAV parity
I don't blame people for not understanding what Saylor is doing. It's there job to learn for themselves.
Saylor is doing some incredible stuff!
The Bitcoin crowd not understanding MSTR is ironic, considering many of them were so early on Bitcoin.
MSTR isn't just some dumb tech company. It's an expression of mathematical genius, much like Bitcoin itself.
The NAV will INCREASE over time. It's a quadratic polynomial regression. Right now, it's selling at a discount.
Interesting! I'll look more into this
The recent 2-3x performance of MSTR vs BTC will increase to 4x, 5x…
As Saylor says it would also be absurd to value AAPL at its NAV.
Wouldn’t it be like valuing Apple at its cash reserves?
@@SouthernBitcoiners right
Thank you for clarifying this for me. Great video.
Great video. Im long on actual coin since 2021. but now that you explained, it makes me feel better about the stock, even seeing all this red.
Nothing wrong with swing trading micro either. It’s predictable and easily tradable with the multiples it does. Even with taxes.
Have a long position set in the coin and the stock. Then have another position you take profits from and buy the dip. This is not hard. It’s been so easy to make money in these cycles.
Of course it makes sense. Same thing markets always do, projecting future growth and then bringing it into the present. Same as Tesla stock rising for years before Tesla earned a single dollar in profit.
I’m not an expert trader. But if you can’t make money off these cycles, then you shouldn’t be trading anything lol. It’s so easy. Just hold.
The Saylor bank angle is most interesting to me. He sees the scarcity and has went gungho all in. What will MSTR in this scenario?
Impossible to know I guess
In it to win it.
MSTR is trillions dollars
If mnav goes negative it would then be accretive to buy back shares and your btc per share would increase..
They would have to have cash to do this, but yes that is an amazing point
$MSTR is looking great. These crypto pennies are flying today too.. $BTCWF $CYFRF just signed POMP and $SPMTF news today at .02 the next one. Easy money. Anyone else following??
Thanks for these videos, they explain mstr much better than any other I have seen! I have some questions maybe you can answer: they sell bonds at a low interest rate so they are able to pay that interest from the software business, but this means there is a limit to how much they can borrow (I assume the rate is not literally 0%, as that would make no sense unless converting the bond is more favourable than buying the stock directly). If they sell more bonds than they can pay the interest on, they would need to sell bitcoin to pay for it which is a problem if bitcoin drops in price. I also don't understand how this is sustainable, surely when the rate at which they are able to sell more bonds drops below the rate at which existing bonds are being converted, there will be share dilution?
Couple things here. Their last bond offering was actually at 0%, bond buyers value it because of the underlying, also lots of Delta hedging by bond arbitrators.
Their debt is only at 25% right now, so very sustainable. They can raise money to pay off bond interest payments by the money they make from their business like you mentioned, but also, they could issue new bonds to pay old ones, and issue atm shares to raise cash to pay their bonds.
@8:46 How do you figure it's less risky than bitcoin. It dropped like 20ish% last Thursday in 1 day
To understand MSTR, it is probably helpful to look at the sub prime mortgage bust. This thing will go down, it is just a matter of time. That being said, I will make as much money as I can in the meantime. Hopefully, I will be able to jump out at the right time.
I don't think it's fitting to compare it to the sub prime mortgage situation.
Mstr has modest leverage and none of their debt is secured by their Bitcoin. They are also the largest corporate holder of the most pristine capital ever created.
Yes they will have drawdowns and their price will go down lots in a BTC bear market, but still I see no comparison to the sub prime mortgage bust unless I'm misunderstanding what you meant
What a foolish comparison, go to sleep. MSTR is a winner
In a tax advantage account could it be wise to sell mstr after it hits up eg 80% then buy back after a crash as it crashes every 2-3 months at least if not more
Unfortunately this is a shake out all the normies that bought at the top despite not understanding
Shake out? Meaning like theybwill all sell?
More btc per share is the simplest way to explain it. And correct me if im wrong, but does that mean the NAV will likely compress over time while the share price possibly rises?
It will fluctuate as they issue new shares, and then buy more BTC.
Good info, thanks
I appreciate these MSTR videos. Bro is your Windows copy not legit?! lol
I'm not giving billiard ball gates a hundo for no reason lol
@bitcoinnotcrypto atta boy ;)
i guess there will be additional dilutions when the bonds are converted into shares in a few year no? I have the feeling that this bitcoin yield Saylor gives us doesnt take into account the future dilutions. What do you think?
The chart from the video accounts for "fully diluted assumed share count" meaning as if each convertible outstanding will convert to shares
And the shares that the bond holder will receives will be about 1/3rd less than what they would have been able to acquire with the "loaned" amount of money that the bond represents. This is because the "strike price" or "conversion price" of the bond is set to +55% the market value of the share at the date of the convertible auction.
Further, the share price in and of itself whenever its at a premium relative to the bitcoin market value essentially lowers dillution of their strategy substantially, whenever theyre exchanging share-offerings for btc, which means including these bonds.
You can picture how theres a connection between the purchasing power of a stack of shares and the current bitcoin price:
Simply, its all entirely reflected within the fact that theres a ratio between the NetAssetValue of the company and the markets pricing of this NAV through the price of the stock. The NAV is directly proportional to the current market price of btc, and the more highly priced market cap of the company reflects how much current purchasing power at the current market condition can be extracted from generating some additional percentage of shares, in essence.
So then the question is can they keep this NAV premium high as the company scales in size? Can they continue to borrow money from the market in this fashion and endlessly turn over new shares? Id say yeah probably, in total. Theres probably going to be a bit bumpy of a ride in the meantime, and bear markets might temporarily punish MSTR worse than BTC, to my understanding.
But anyways, you should throw some spare cash into the stock, whatever your conscience can bear.
Not if the BTC price has increased more than the conversion %
Why isn’t MSTR moving now as they bought 58k new BTC
Likely Saylor is selling tons of shares into the market using the atm.
Good stuff but not technically it has had more downside this week than bit coin
The leverage works both ways. Thats why.
And they WANT volatility in their stock.
Thats how their customers makes money on their bonds.
True but that is recently bias. Their downside vol is often not equal to the leveraged upside compared to BTC.
Its not even as complicated as div growth....its literally P/E.....btc yield is P/E. The numerator is btc not worthless fiat
True!
@bitcoinnotcrypto saylor is a legend! I bet tomorrow he announces around 60k coin buy to pump into the qqq rankings
@@ceerawlins3412 🤞
Not today it doesn’t make sense
Anyone else still up after today?
way up
Like any leverage play, nothing wrong with trading micro and holding the coin.
@@ottohumpmachine8958288%
I disagree with you completely and am short 500 at 440. This is not a 2x or 3x etf.
Hell yeah brother, good luck in bankruptcy court!
@@bitcoinnotcrypto Ill make at least 50% on this in next 6 months. You on the other hand will lose it all when MSTR goes bankrupt and creditors sell off the bitcoin.
I sold MSTR and the top, and started buying back in today. If it gets around 300 I’ll be all the way back in. The good think about btc and MSTR is they are actually fairly predictable in these cycles. I mostly hold the coin and trade micro. I have a small, roughly 20% position in micro that I hold.
If it was predictable why didn’t you go 100% into mstr at $15?
Because it’s not predictable.
If you did you wouldn’t sell the top because you got a 15% bitcoin dividend yesterday.
Im very proud of you. Good for you! Time to retire
If MSTR can provide value outside of custodianship of BTC (which it cannot), then its overhead costs will not justify holding over native BTC after speculative buy pressure ceases and the bear market shakes it down to true NAV parity
If it looks like a ponzi, acts like a ponzi, and the CEO talks like a ponzi...Guess what?
It's a Ponzi on a Ponzi because Bitcoin is also a Ponzi. Checkmate.
@@bitcoinnotcrypto and you are a fooool. FEELING FOMO MATE?
What? Please explain im not a good guesser
@@holson2112 he was hinting that it's the next trillion dollar company, he just doesn't get it yet.
It's the best Ponzi not actually because bit coin promises nothing to new investors. It's just a greater fool theory but that does not matter
MSTR 😂 how stupid of you guys buy stock instead of buying BTC directly.
BTC cold storage BTC is the best. Mstr makes sense in some cases depending on risk tolerance and tax sheltering accounts.
It doesn't make sense... It should be higher 🟩☝️📈