@@Anthony0fFire yes, but those are independent events, thus should be evaluated independently. See the gambler's fallacy and why doubling down in the casino doesn't work despite being sound if viewed from a statistical viewpoint like this.
This was a fun journey to follow you on! Even with last league in mind, the highlights were more satisfying than normal. Can't wait for next leagues farm
@@snoobae8553 Something about completion scarabs plus the fact that you needed to invest so much per map to get drops like this gave it a different feel
@@snoobae8553 I only calculate what is valuable. Mirror of Kalandra:2 Unrequited love:49 seven years:629 Apothecary:42 Nemes:83 MB:1 Hinekora's Lock:1 I didn't drink Divination Distillate I think the rarity needs to be lowered.
@@reitrac6692 if you are farming for mirror drops, then I believe there are better strategies out there to do so. such as Uber maven farming. In 1000 maps you should on average get 5 Exceptional support gems. Let us say you got unlucky and got 3 empower and 2 enhance. Around 27 top tier awak gems, that is around 800divs conservative value in those. Empowers are around 500div. And you would also have gotten around 110ish progenesis, 330 impossible escape, that is what 10 of each on average, and the most expensive goes for 50div+ and there are like 3 of them, 1500div. And 350 orb of conflict ish. So yeah at 1000 Uber maven you are probably going to see around 200+1000+1500+400+5500. Around 8600divines. Conservatively. :-) If you got super unlucky and only found enhance then it would be 7900 divines. One set is around 6 div per run. So he would almost have doubled his per map basis. :-D if he only hit enhance. But if he had hit 5 enlighten, then it would have looked like around 4-5 div per map instead... Forgot curio, that is another 100div.
Do increases to scarab, currency, and map drop chances decrease divination card drop chances? In other words, if you were trying to only target farm divination cards, would it be optimal to not have increased chances for other things to drop?
@@snoobae8553 I believe you're correct. I tried 5 maps with only one 60% drop chance increase and removed all but two or three scarab increases on the atlas (the ones I needed as travel nodes). While it's an extremely small sample size, there was no noticeable increase in number of card drops. I'd bet that in most cases the scarabs are replacing equipment or other item drops so the benefit is fairly negligible. Getting ~2d per map in scarabs is going to be way more profitable.
Did they nerf this or can you just go on crazy long streaks of nothing. Followed all your guide for this farm did 20 maps and didn’t get a single one of the big cards to drop. Lost well over a hundred divines in 20 maps.
My results were unlucky for a 1000. This is the kind of farm that can bite you even in a thousand maps. Granted, you probably wouldn’t be negative after that long. For 20 maps, anything can happen.
I spent most of the league chasing that full stack and I got one very early then they never stacked up again. I wonder if they stealth nerfed the unrequited stack or if we are just unlucky.
Did you keep track of your single drop counts / number of stacks of seven years, apothecaries, and fire of unknown origins? I want to look at the data to compare single drop counts to card weights to see how lucky/unlucky you got on these high tier cards, or on the contrary if perhaps these card drop weights are incorrect. It's weird because it looks like for all the super high sample size cards you got about 4.27 times more single card drops than weight of the card, as you noted, but seven years has some issues. unrequited love looks about right as far as single drops go... other than completion obviously being bugged on your client, of course. Gifts and apoths look good, and nimis is even pretty close as far as things go. But Seven years is just... nonexistent? Missing 30% of the cards / should have gotten 40% more? there's no chance. The estimated single card drops actually estimate a drop rate of about 51 for seven years, not 71. And that's a veeeeeery high sample size to be off such an extreme number of cards.
You can check the beginning of the video with the overlay. I did track that for Nimis and Mageblood cards. Not for Seven Years though. I felt like Seven Years, Brother's Gift and Stash were all about the same drop rate when I was farming Crimson Temples and Cemeteries. So perhaps Seven Years is registered high on the weighting.
Would be fun to see the number from all the investments equal how much earned. So you got 700 Div profit, from how much investment? Since I think it is insane to invest this much in 1 map hehe. From just a quick head math, you invested more than 10k divines to get 700. I mean even with 1 or 2 stacks on the LOVE card, it seem very bad with these stakes.
This Journey was better than going to the meatsack like Fubgun exploited , Fubgun quit the league almost 2 months ago , but you still going , maybe try self ignite with Higher quant for rest of the league or play ER or D4 Vessel of hatred
@@snoobae8553 i think it was like 5000000 quant and 2 million rarity on the final meatsack had to open these coffins to get the meatsack follow you and get the tormented thing , it was the atlas node or something cant remember
This is awesome content, valuable info here, but it kinda shoots you and other "MF youtubers" (mainly Fubgun) in the foot. This highlights issue with this farming and how it is advertised (50+ Div/hour meme). They probably shouldn't even be called "farming" strats when they involve so much RNG. There is no such thing as "averaging out RNG" for such strats - you would need to do tens of thousands maps for that. Chances are actual player will either get lucky and feel great or get unlucky and feel bad. It's all or nothing. And most players don't have patience, time, etc. etc. for thousand(s) maps. Must be a dilemma. Valuable info but puts MF in bad light. I am glad you took the risk.
Thanks for your input. I don't think it hurts 'our cause' in favor of MF if it were. I've had bad RNG in 100 maps farms before. To be fair, this league is on a whole 'nother level of RNG compared to anything we've seen before. Perhaps this is the new normal. We'll see next league.
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Getting 0 stacks of unrequited love from 16 single drops is actually crazy
Actually not crazy unlikely, the chance to not procc one in 16 is 18.5%. So it sure is unlucky, but not mindblowingly unlucky.
@@M3sha123456789 Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the probability of not proccing at all 0.8^16, which would be a 2.8% chance?
@@Anthony0fFireit is, yes
@@M3sha123456789the other cards stack also have lower chance, 1/12 - 1/7 (from the overlay), it is supposed to be 1/5 - possible bug
@@Anthony0fFire yes, but those are independent events, thus should be evaluated independently. See the gambler's fallacy and why doubling down in the casino doesn't work despite being sound if viewed from a statistical viewpoint like this.
This was a fun journey to follow you on! Even with last league in mind, the highlights were more satisfying than normal. Can't wait for next leagues farm
Really? I thought Affliction highlights beat this out of the water, except for the lag part.
@@snoobae8553 Something about completion scarabs plus the fact that you needed to invest so much per map to get drops like this gave it a different feel
watched every single episode. really enjoyed the formatting and in depth analysis. thanks so much for doing this project.
❤❤❤ thanks for all the time you took to get us these numbers
Also if someone wants to have the pain of picking up 35715 the wrath cards during a 1000 map session you could get another 397d in profit.
Thank you snoo for all the amazing content, gotta be the only league I have seen you with “so so” luck, lol. Oh well like you say “never lucky”
Aways never lucky
This series was awesome ! Thank you !
Thanks for watching!
tnx for sharing all data
In the past I performed 400 games, stacked Unrequited Love three times, and dropped two mirrors.
mods, MODS!
@@snoobae8553
I'm following your method.🤣 The ring I use is lower rarity. -33%
@@e1206mily are you getting way more common cards than I did with that?
@@snoobae8553 I only calculate what is valuable.
Mirror of Kalandra:2
Unrequited love:49
seven years:629
Apothecary:42
Nemes:83
MB:1
Hinekora's Lock:1
I didn't drink Divination Distillate
I think the rarity needs to be lowered.
700ish divines in profit over 1000 maps, that does not sound very good to me. 😅
He got really unlucky on unrequited love stacks, should’ve been 3 more mirrors in overall profit
@@reitrac6692 if you are farming for mirror drops, then I believe there are better strategies out there to do so. such as Uber maven farming. In 1000 maps you should on average get 5 Exceptional support gems. Let us say you got unlucky and got 3 empower and 2 enhance. Around 27 top tier awak gems, that is around 800divs conservative value in those. Empowers are around 500div. And you would also have gotten around 110ish progenesis, 330 impossible escape, that is what 10 of each on average, and the most expensive goes for 50div+ and there are like 3 of them, 1500div. And 350 orb of conflict ish.
So yeah at 1000 Uber maven you are probably going to see around
200+1000+1500+400+5500. Around 8600divines. Conservatively. :-)
If you got super unlucky and only found enhance then it would be 7900 divines.
One set is around 6 div per run. So he would almost have doubled his per map basis. :-D if he only hit enhance. But if he had hit 5 enlighten, then it would have looked like around 4-5 div per map instead... Forgot curio, that is another 100div.
Common poe thing is not to relay your profit on raw drops but on trade, div cards or flipping/jackpot
Do increases to scarab, currency, and map drop chances decrease divination card drop chances? In other words, if you were trying to only target farm divination cards, would it be optimal to not have increased chances for other things to drop?
I don't believe so. Not in any significant way, at least.
@@snoobae8553 I believe you're correct. I tried 5 maps with only one 60% drop chance increase and removed all but two or three scarab increases on the atlas (the ones I needed as travel nodes). While it's an extremely small sample size, there was no noticeable increase in number of card drops. I'd bet that in most cases the scarabs are replacing equipment or other item drops so the benefit is fairly negligible. Getting ~2d per map in scarabs is going to be way more profitable.
I hope they do something about B2B or just the endgame farming. It's too monotone,far too monotone compared to enraged stronbox farming.
Did they nerf this or can you just go on crazy long streaks of nothing. Followed all your guide for this farm did 20 maps and didn’t get a single one of the big cards to drop. Lost well over a hundred divines in 20 maps.
My results were unlucky for a 1000. This is the kind of farm that can bite you even in a thousand maps. Granted, you probably wouldn’t be negative after that long. For 20 maps, anything can happen.
I spent most of the league chasing that full stack and I got one very early then they never stacked up again. I wonder if they stealth nerfed the unrequited stack or if we are just unlucky.
Never lucky
Did you keep track of your single drop counts / number of stacks of seven years, apothecaries, and fire of unknown origins? I want to look at the data to compare single drop counts to card weights to see how lucky/unlucky you got on these high tier cards, or on the contrary if perhaps these card drop weights are incorrect. It's weird because it looks like for all the super high sample size cards you got about 4.27 times more single card drops than weight of the card, as you noted, but seven years has some issues.
unrequited love looks about right as far as single drops go... other than completion obviously being bugged on your client, of course. Gifts and apoths look good, and nimis is even pretty close as far as things go. But Seven years is just... nonexistent? Missing 30% of the cards / should have gotten 40% more? there's no chance.
The estimated single card drops actually estimate a drop rate of about 51 for seven years, not 71. And that's a veeeeeery high sample size to be off such an extreme number of cards.
You can check the beginning of the video with the overlay. I did track that for Nimis and Mageblood cards. Not for Seven Years though. I felt like Seven Years, Brother's Gift and Stash were all about the same drop rate when I was farming Crimson Temples and Cemeteries. So perhaps Seven Years is registered high on the weighting.
@@snoobae8553 idk how i forgot about it, i literally watched like half of the maps live. jeez
Would be fun to see the number from all the investments equal how much earned. So you got 700 Div profit, from how much investment? Since I think it is insane to invest this much in 1 map hehe. From just a quick head math, you invested more than 10k divines to get 700. I mean even with 1 or 2 stacks on the LOVE card, it seem very bad with these stakes.
Check the playlist link and you can see the investment/returns for all individual 10 100-maps sets. :)
Unfortunate Love
This Journey was better than going to the meatsack like Fubgun exploited , Fubgun quit the league almost 2 months ago , but you still going , maybe try self ignite with Higher quant for rest of the league or play ER or D4 Vessel of hatred
I think you're confusing Meatsacks with Tormented spirit Anarchy allflame? Meatsacks was a legit farm that I did, in fact. :P
@@snoobae8553 it was patch quick , i managed to run 3 Maps and then patched , and I had 1200 edps bow very bad build but with IAS gloves on elehit
@@dislike7973 Oh I must have missed it.
@@snoobae8553 i think it was like 5000000 quant and 2 million rarity on the final meatsack had to open these coffins to get the meatsack follow you and get the tormented thing , it was the atlas node or something cant remember
@@dislike7973 Oh that. Ben started that I think. I didn't see for sure, but it didn't seem to me it was super crazy broken.
This is awesome content, valuable info here, but it kinda shoots you and other "MF youtubers" (mainly Fubgun) in the foot.
This highlights issue with this farming and how it is advertised (50+ Div/hour meme). They probably shouldn't even be called "farming" strats when they involve so much RNG. There is no such thing as "averaging out RNG" for such strats - you would need to do tens of thousands maps for that. Chances are actual player will either get lucky and feel great or get unlucky and feel bad. It's all or nothing. And most players don't have patience, time, etc. etc. for thousand(s) maps.
Must be a dilemma. Valuable info but puts MF in bad light. I am glad you took the risk.
Thanks for your input. I don't think it hurts 'our cause' in favor of MF if it were. I've had bad RNG in 100 maps farms before. To be fair, this league is on a whole 'nother level of RNG compared to anything we've seen before. Perhaps this is the new normal. We'll see next league.
maybe the full stack is weighted by amount of total cards or sth?
Nah it's just bad RNG. First two Unrequited I dropped this league both procced completion. :)