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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ก.ค. 2024
- What's happening in the UK housing market and what's ahead? In this housing market update, Phil Spencer is joined by Richard Donnel, Research Director at Zoopla to discuss how the land lies and housing market predictions for 2022.
👉 VIDEO TIMESTAMPS ⏳
0:00 Introduction
0:58 What's driving demand in the housing market?
1:21 What are the challenges in the market right now?
3:15 Supply in the rental market
4:45 The locations where there is house price inflation now
5:28 Slowest house price growth
6:44 Impact of cost of living and higher mortgage rates
7:41 Why the housing market might slow in 2023
9:40 Are landlords selling off their rental property?
11:00 Rental property regulations - further impacts
12:12 How has the rental landscape shifted?
14:35 What will house price growth be over the next 10/12 months+
15:19 Rental growth predictions
15:40 Predicted housing transactions in 2022
16:15 New homes challenges
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Take a look at some of the TH-cam videos about what's happening in the US market right now for a more realistic view, Resession was not mentioned once and the writing on the wall, what going on in the States will more than likely happen here.
Be prepared .
To be honest much of the properties in the UK are by todays standard suboptimal. We're still living in Victorian 2 up- 2 down terraced houses, 3 up - 2 down semi-detached houses, nof to mention the atrocious rabbit hutches that still get planning permission where rooms are so small if you put anything bigger than a dining chair you can't move. If nothing else the pandemic illustrated that people need to have decent spaces in which they can live as we do in today's world. So yes, we want to have nice kitchens, bathrooms, light airy living room and bedrooms, a study large enough to work in ( not everyone who works from home does so on a laptop), adequate storage, outside spaces. The list goes on. There should be massive demolition of these outdated houses that just don't work anymore, to be replaced by architecture that does.
No environmental impact in that, is there? 🤪
Maybe you should look a bit closer to the poor quality housing in other European countries and America, which are a lot worse than ours!
@@axegrinder6734 I doubt. I was born in a European country. What in the UK is considered a luxury, in Europe, is seen as a normal house. So now you will ask me what am I doing here if it is so nice there. Well, I had bad parents and I had to escape. Now I am working to come back because of how the UK houses poor are.
Totally agree.
Don't waste your time it will never happen!
Some obvious omissions here. 1) someone working for a estate agency is going to keep the outlook chippy. 2) There is nothing here about the wage rate ratio re inflation and the ability to sustain a mortgage on a property that was artificially inflated to nearly 18% above due to the stamp duty holiday and wish to move to work from home. When the Gov reinstated the tax it was on an inflated expectation and buyers are not willing to pay that now and are now staying put. Affordability in a new world of exceptional fuel increases and heating costs and other inflationary cost of living demands will turn this into a buyers market despite the shortage.
This guy has no idea of what it coming! Basically he is a salesman, he should be truthful.
Will people choose food or pay the mortgage???
“You will own nothing and you will be happy”
God help us!
And you'll be eating insects, weeds and have no privacy.... according to Klaus.
Very insightful and spot with my own assessment. As always supply and demand is the key factor.
Thanks for your feedback
Thanks Move IQ team, this is insightful
Glad you found it useful
Brilliant content! This was a very worth while watch
Thank you. Glad you found it useful.
Instead of building better homes, government and planners are creating small homes on tiny plots. We need restrictions on housing densities. e.g. Three homes per acre. Intead of granting planning permission for housing extensions, infill developments, flats in urban and suburban areas, the planning system should be creating well built, well designed sizeable properties away from busy roads, with a range of amenties in a reasonable and accessible distance. The fundamental problem is that the continuous mass immigration of the last 25 years has created huge demand whilst building an imbalanced market, lots of flats, small homes, dense developments. I see too many properties build adjacent to A roads, main roads, busy roads. Housing deserves an excellent setting, whilst traffic should be free flowing along A roads, instead it's being carved up by roundabouts and traffic lights galore.
Good explanations from Richard Donnel.
It’s a population crisis not a housing crisis you are spot on :)
1000% dinghy tax would solve it 🤡
It's all well and good saying continued house price growth is positive, value to wage multiples on average are IRO 11 x income. If you're fortunate enough to be able to buy a home, what's not being told is a 1st time buyer has to have a mortgage term of 35-40 years. The mature 1st time buyers are therefore priced out to because they may not be able to service a 30 year mortgage due to retirement age. The only positive news at the moment is the ridiculous Help to Buy equity loan scheme is due to finish therefore not subsidising the Developer profits.
These videos are so informative, I only found this channel yesterday and feel like after dithering for months about selling I now have enough information to just get on with it, thank you 🙏
Great to hear! Welcome aboard....do check out our website too moveiQ.co.uk where you can access more of our advice.
Sell and rent for a period. As cash buyers you are in a stronger position and more attractive. Less stress.
@@1414141x Thanks for shaing
Insightful as always... More like this please
Thank you! We will be doing more 👍
This video is spot on. It's what I have been experiencing myself as a prospective buyer. I really like the explanation as to why the situation is the way it is atm which helps to make an informed choice as to how to proceed. There's been a property shortage for a few years & we're still in it. I started looking just before the onset of the pandemic. I get loads of prop alerts from rightmove most of which I'm not interested in. There used to be much more variety. Many are not new property alerts, but ones previously advertised but now reduced. I saw one reduced by 20k less than one week after going on the market or being removed by the agent and remarketed elsewhere. Great update! 👍
Thanks so much 🙏
Yeah there's low inventory but quite a few houses in my area that have been up there for a long time as they're overpriced. I've seen a few of those get reduced by a fair whack too.
We are personally right in the middle of this, having sold our home fast, well over its asking with a lot of interest. However, we can't find anything to buy, there is virtually nothing coming on the market in our area. We've lost out on two properties we offered on to cash buyers.
Sorry to hear this - hopefully more will come to the market in your area in coming weeks.
@@MoveiQ Not in my area, estate houses being built locally and never get onto the open market instead they are long term leased to London councils for their residents who are all black and asian totally inappropriate in my view these estates are on greenfield sites in the countryside with no local infrastructure just a road in and out, it also removes all possibility of the local english youngers buying a home of their own - an uprising is overdue!
Which only goes to prove that property is only an investment when you sell it if you don't need to find somewhere else to live. In my time I have bought and sold two houses, one ten bedroom hotel and a shop with a flat above. All I can say is that the money we made gave us a good life but not the rich one you would think. Treat your house as a home not an investment and you will get many years of joy from it.
Don't see how this is a good thing for the people who live and work in the places people are moving to. Born and bred Kent and now can't afford property on a Kent salary because everyone is moving here. Lower income people are suffering massively.
Surely long term the value of property in the UK will drastically fall.
You are right. When no one can afford to buy, prices will tumble. When they do, name your purchase price and don't budge from it. There will be some cheap property on offer when all those half million pound mortgages are called in.
There is more demand than supply, also people will hold rather than selling cheap as they can afford %3-5 interest rates( affordability check) . So it will never fall but it will raise every year average %5-10 a year. So buy now if you can!
@@bilsrky8612 Where is the demand coming from?
@@spacecowboy9795 growing population ( new professional young couples) and immigration!
@@bilsrky8612 Immigration... there we have it. A Ponzi scheme depends on new entrants to keep going.
We have been on the market for 11 weeks 4 viewings a beautiful house 5 beds in peterborough have been told the house should have gone by now but no reduced by 25 grand and cannot afford to reduce anymore am totally baffled as what such a great home hasn't sold so no not booming where I am.
Housing market is brutal. Unless it improves, significantly, for renters to move onto first time buyer ladder it will be log jammed.
We are a professional couple looking to move rentals atm in london and I have to say the rental market has gotten crazy compared to 3 years ago.Prices are up average £200-300 per month, listings are gone same day they are advertised (even mid week), and the price gradient from zone 1-4 has vanished-now something in both extremes will cost the same. I do wonder how many renters arw afraid of the impending squeeze of cost of living and are trying to move into more energy efficient/smaller homes as it seems that a 3+bed is about the same price as a 2bed, and 1beds cant catch a cold in a damp room. It worrys me for the impending winter, if things get worse how many people are going to just go without?
Buy a place to live. Spend all your time on that project. Theres no future in renting.
@@markdonnelly6921 that was the plan(and we where nearly there until the turbulence this week), but it doesn't look plausible given the market atm. I have a feeling that 99%of first time buyers just dropped out of the race, so well see how things pan out in a few months i guess RE interest rates and affordability checks 😳
It's all supply and demand. People want to live in a better area especially new builds
Thanks for sharing
Slowing in the North East, not seeing them sell as fast as they were.
Thanks for sharing
Well, thank God I bought back in October '21, eh? Again, a WFH stimulated purchase. Like the chap says, outside of the city; closer to the countryside in a slightly neglected but beautiful part of the world. Say what you like about WFH but it does bring great benefits to satellite towns around major cities as well as forgotten, industrial towns. The government and opposition need to bear that in mind when thinking about their catchment for voters.
I'm considering trying to get moved back towards the city in the next 3 or 4 years as we transition to a more hybridized work model but I have a dog now, so I'm probably not in the market for a small flat in Manchester. The boom in dog ownership must have a small amount of impact on the market in future.
Quality content and quality “interview structure”; Phil, your natural gift is to put people at ease and enquire rather than provoke and ride roughshod your own opinion (BBC take note please 🙄). Keep it up… 👍🏻
Thank you - we will pass that on to Phil :)
Agree
Supply is fucked. We need a correction. Its a greedy marketplace.
It’s coming don’t worry. These so called experts are intoxicated by their own greed and wishful thinking.
For the last 50 years I have said house prices can not go up more and they do. I is not right that as I own 8 propries they go up more than I have recieved in salaries .
No bubble lasts forever, economic fundamentals apply to every market.
I came to this country to start a new life. Worked hard and saved, but feel like now there is just no hope. Prices are ridiculous and am considering starting again somewhere else.
First time buyer can’t get a mortgage as they advise 5 percent mortgage but but can’t get one the want alteast 10 percent or 15 now
You all are promoting and blowing the bubble which is about to pop.
Thanks for sharing your view
Yup. Two guys that benefit from the housing market, telling everyone it's going to be ok, which you would expect, they have families and bills too. However, this happens less in a healthy market. It's going to slow down, only buy if you need a home, and it's an easily affordable mortgage for you. It's too risky for an investment or a large mortgage right now, until the BoE gets on top of inflation and the tightening slows down.
Is it for Scotland
I can't see the EPC rating requirements changing to C, current government isn't interested in efficient housing and has already reversed similar changes to new builds.
Also doesn't help that my local authority is buying up all the 1 and 2 bed housing before it goes on the market driving up demand and pushing owners on to the shared ownership scam
Thanks for sharing
Sad but true.
The house market is slowing down and has bin for 2 months but no one want to panic people not to but Thousands of people are losing jobs ever month just look at all the companies that have gone bankrupt from January
We've been waiting 6 months for our seller to find somewhere, our life has been on hold and we don't know what to do.
This is happening a lot - hope you can get moving soon.
quite a sunstroke, take care :)
So there no property for sale, I look every month and portals of right move and others have thousands in all areas. Very strange 🤔massively over priced. Let get interest rates up to 5% as they should be and let savers get a better return. The government has handed out millions during lockdown, stamp duty freeze. It was not required. Total madness. When interest rates only 0.25% over 12 years this is classic for a property boom.
Thanks for sharing
Don’t worry it’s coming, 5% ☝️
@@tj9382 long over due, I hope that it’s a hard landing
The Elephant In The Room is the approximately 1 million extra people which our government are welcoming into the UK each year.
This insatiable demand will ensure that prices will keep burgeoning for the foreseeable future.
Ways will be found to ensure that 'affordability' is not a major obstacle to buy a house in order to keep the ponzi scheme going.
every single new build i saw today was sold STC. across 3 new sites all sold out. each home i viewed had over 4-5 people coming to see per day
Sorry to hear this - hope you find something soon.
What location? Some areas are slowing, houses not selling as quickly unless priced low. North west being one.
No not sold leased by the London boroughs and local county councils for their immigrant tenants (legal and otherwise) before they start bleeting more about how disadvantaged and discriminated they are here in the UK
It's all s**t for first time buyers 🙃
House values are not booming.
It's rather the GBP, Euro & Dollar are rapidly losing value.
Prices will have to start dropping because income is stagnant
Prices falling rapidly in the South right now. Agents will always talk up the market even when literally everyone else knows they are falling!
These are great videos, I've just subscribed. As an investor of 40 plus years I've experienced the left wing policy of rent control and security of tenure. No one seems to mention the possible return of this should we get a change of government. Would love to hear your views.
Losing s21 is effectively security of tenure, I’ve sold 23/25 of my rentals , and I won’t be the only one
@Boxing Truth true, there is no political solution to the mess we are in
I am so sick of a housing market rising above wage growth being seen as a good thing. By saying this, you are LITERALLY saying, that young people deserve to be rewarded less and less over time for putting in the same work that you did, just for the crime of being born later. As far as I am concerned, this is nothing short of evil.
Very true when average lending is 7x average wages vs 3x wages when boomers bought, but if we all stop buying coffee and cancel subscriptions we'll be fine! Because that will knock loads off the years it takes to save up for a house only for the ever increasing prices push ownership further away!
It's all over these housing market vlog things tbh - because 99% of them are being hosted by property investors, they always ALWAYS speak of house price "growth" (read: inflation) as a positive thing, despite the fact that for a growing proportion of the population this is in fact a terrible thing.
@@sonicwingnut Correct, they call it "growth" implying it's a positive thing just like when businesses grow. As you say, the correct word is inflation, it's the price appreciation of an essential product: shelter.
@@TheUndulyNoted Yeah, the problem is to some people it's essential shelter, and a home. To others it's an investment for gaining (largely passive) income. The wording gives you a very good idea of whose side they are on.
@@sonicwingnut But it all requires ever increasing property prices, institutional and foreign investors will dump their massive portfolios back onto the market if these "investment vehicles" start to stall out, the supply shock from something like this could trigger a massive crash.
A short video explaining a capital gains tax in layman's language would be helpful.
Mate, seriously just Google it. These guys are speaking in the same language that an article written on the internet will be written in.
This would be advice from an accountant or financial adviser - not something we could do. Sorry.
Housing market is criminal - why the hell does anyone need a property portfolio? Legalised criminality. Buying up the stock to reduce supply, forcing up prices. How is this racket not illegal yet?
They need to be charged accordingly, some form of property tax on non live in investors
there is they pay higher stamp duty as well as normal tax of 20 40%.
It’s called a business it’s an asset like everything else. It’s the lack of 300,000 houses been built every year as well as everyone coming over that’s causing a shortage. Maybe you should do some research before calling it legalised criminality. And no I don’t own more than 1 house yet😉
Thanks for sharing your view
@@azaboy2
In Singapore we have additional buyer's stamp duty:
Singapore Citizens: ABSD will be levied on the second (17%) and subsequent (25%) property purchases
Singapore Permanent Residents (PRs): ABSD will be levied on all purchases. The first purchase will be 5% while the second purchase will be 25%, and third and subsequent purchases will be 30%.
Foreigners: 30% ABSD for any property purchase
Entities (companies or associations): 35% for each property (plus additional 5% non-remittable ABSD for developers)
Plus any living trust now has a ABSD of 35% (which was a previous loophole).
Probably because so many MPs are on the property investment bandwagon.
The housing market is one of the biggest drivers in the economy, especially since Brexit & Covid messed up both the City and our exports. High prices suit everybody - except most house owners & all tenants.
That’s why the ridiculous price inflation over the last 2 years hasn’t been an issue to government, or made many headlines, and why George Osborne shamefully didn’t take advantage of the golden opportunity created by the price correction of the 2008/9 credit crunch to address some of the systemic problems in our housing market.
And even a stopped clock is right twice a day. The only prediction that is reliable is that no one really knows what will happen in the future.
2025 the epc comes in, c rating or above
Thank you
Without constant first-time buyers the market is unsustainable. We've seen it time and time again. Huge collapse coming which is about time.
how so?
the powers that be are forcing a crash of the money markets however in my view it is unlikely to affect the housing market here in the UK, USA will likely come off worse, their housing market likely will have to crash as they need to get rid of their privately owned federal reserve and return to a gold and silver backed standard
What a load of bull,no house's in the estate agent
It’s amazing how people were paid over last 10 years to make us buy homes. Thousands of new homes built in every U.K. city and town.
I have saved 50k and thinking of buying, should I wait or should I buy ? So confused 😐
This might help you www.moveiq.co.uk/blog/buying/buy-sellers-market/
Not true I had very few offers on my place and I bought a new place easy plenty of properties on the market.
Great to hear
Why do I ever watch these things? They make me so depressed, home ownership is never going to happen for me and my family. At least Phil comes across as considered and neutral, virtually everyone he interviews can't contain their glee at the lottery winning system they have benefitted from. Genuinely I just need to disengage with the whole thing to improve my mental health and reduce the likelihood of future hypertension.
Before you throw yourself off the nearest bridge, just wait a year or two. I think the property market is about to undergo an overdue correction, that'll be your time to buy. It will happen
@@mypointofview1111 I think you're incorrect the housing market has become decoupled from the rest of the economy due to the advent of quantitive easing and the significant accrual of capital of those at the top, who view housing (correctly) as one of the few areas that are generating significant returns on investment. The cost of living stuff will only really impact on lower and middle income earners who are basically locked out of the housing market (because of the massive asset prices increases) anyway. If anything the only thing that may cool are rents as those on lower incomes are unable to pay more. The other thing to note is that due to the UK's demography/asset holding and geographical distribution through constituencies the Conservatives are likely to be in power for at least another electoral cycle if not more, they receive significant contributions to their party from the house building companies and their core support are home owners, they will not implement any policies that will reduce/stabilise house price increases, in fact I think it's highly likely they will aim to inflate the market again as they did with Help to Buy.
These so-called experts are deluded by their own wishful thinking, a massive correction is imminent remember where you heard it first.
The nay-sayers are talking the property market down everyday of the year for the last decade, sadly you won’t be very memorable.
I've seen loads of for sale boards vanish in the last couple of weeks. People forget the banks have already changed ther affordability calculations on inflation. So wat People could afford 2 months ago with a mortgage the banks will be less now. Can't see the market going up and up.
Also estate agents always say we can sell it tomorrow to win the property 🤣 they will say absolutely anything to win it
Could you not have interview someone without so much skin in the game for a less biased analysis.
First Time Buyers should get tax relief for their Mortgage. That is the best way to help first time buyers to climb the housing market
You had that pre 1988
"The people seem to of shrugged off the war in Ukraine"what a load of tosh,what are we supposed to do
remember war never fails to make loads of dosh for the 1%
Go over there and help them instead of putting up useless flags you weakling.
Believe these jokers at your peril. Recession is coming with market drop by 20%+ at least by 2024.
Sooner than that , I reakon October
The Zoopla guy is going to say the housing market is healthy that's his business he is an estate agent. I don't have a lot of faith in zoopla's data just look on their site on valuations of houses, they are way off.
In the next 2 years it won't be just the housing market that will be taking a battering it will be global economies. Businesses will be going to the wall left right and centre. We will be seeing mass job losses due to these Businesses seeing their turnovers drop dramatically.
This inflation monster hasn't fully started yet and it won't be going away overnight. This crash will make the one in 2008 look minute.
Thank you for sharing your views.
@@healthiswealth6797 I reckon 1st quarter 2023
I think best time will be end of 2023 to buy
Invest abroad
You should not base your housing calculations on demand. There has always been demand for property ever since human beings appeared on this planet. Demand has never been the problem. What will finally kill the property market is affordability, and that is slowly killing the market stone dead. It just hasn't realised it yet. I mean half a million pounds for a 3 bedroom posh shed. You have got to be kidding. 250,000 for a two up and two down? No one can take those kind of prices seriously. No one in their right mind would pay £500,000 for a house that one day will be impossible to sell. Those who have made their fortunes out of property in the last few decades may soon have their smug little grins wiped from their faces. I'll say no more. There is no need to. Any one with an ounce of common sense can see what's happening.
From property visionary to smart meter pusher ...
What planet are this clowns live ! No talk about the rise in interest rates and the hyperinflation we’re in !
Lockdown purchases, just like the pets, were all dumped! Let's hope this crash comes sooner rather than later! I am re-valuated getting far far far from where human beings live!
this guy makes it all worse for poor youngsters talking this merry go round ! watch it all crash mate ,..
Thanks for sharing your views on this
Location location location ! Forget the rest...
If u listen to these people u deserve to go into negative equity and lose your home.
Selling is easy nobody needs a estate agent to do that.
To many first time buyers home and not enough for that next run on the ladder 🪜