The Fed's 'play-by-play commentary' imposes unnecessary volatility into markets: Mohamed El-Erian
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 เม.ย. 2024
- Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he believes the Fed has lost sight of its overall strategy, interest rate outlook, and more.
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So, you know when the Federal Reserve starts doing its thing, it's like the stock market suddenly perks up and starts doing the happy dance, right? It's wild how much influence those Fed pivots can have. Like, one minute, everyone's freaking out about interest rates and inflation, and then bam! The Fed makes a move, and suddenly, it's like the market just gets a shot of adrenaline. People start feeling more confident, investors get excited, and before you know it, stocks are on the rise again.
Investing in this economy is a hell at times for the average person that wants full control of their finances, Even investing in ETF stocks can be risky.
Just keep an eye on those Fed moves-they're like the ultimate market mood setters!
@@IrwinFranke The question to be asked at times is not if the government or the economy is responsible for the sudden dramatic shifts in the economy but if we are taking the necessary measures to avoid making losses no matter the situation even if the pay roll is not in your favor.
What would you consider the necessary measures though? I was at a seminar two days ago where investors gave their opinions on how we can better investment for proper returns.
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Mohamed El-Erian, judicious and brilliant as always.
Why is this guy pushing for a rate cut ? What he says is not consistent. If he agrees that long-term is inflationary why does he want to fuel it with a rate cut ?
because he think a bit of inflation is OK
@@todorkolev7565he knows very well about inflation psychology, how inflation expectations work, if he does not then why to have his opinion all 🤷
Indian Guru.
He hates the FED for some reason. Always second guessing them.
2:32 not cutting rates would undermine our economic exceptionalism🤔. Why? If the economy is great and strong??? Or is it what markets want 😂
"they" want SPY at 6000
High rates are put forth to destroy demand. If we have to keep rates high and destroy demand to fight inflation that's bad sign for the economy.
As soon as gold and oil goes up fed comes out and saying, we are gonna raise rates 😅😂😅😂. Their stupid game is visible to everyday person
Exactly. The base of bonds this dude referred to is still Fiat😊 that Argentine Miles said to have caused a long term mismatch between spending and investments. The Fed should be allowed to debase the Fiat in order to fix the past mistakes
It is insane, market expects multiple ratecuts while flirting with all time highs. Messed up.😂
undertand that fiat currency requires constant printing. once you do then you have no choice but to become a Permabull like Warren Buffet, Tom Lee etc.
Priced in 7 cuts, going to get none and didn't give up any gains.
@@5k-fcr121 only a Fiat that cannot afford Boomers longevity and a dire state of fiscal deficit.. Why that didn't happen with Singaporean dollar?
Agree with el Arian. The Federal Open Mouth Committee needs to do their jobs, balance all the TRAILING data they use with current and projected market data, and STOP INDUCING NOISE into the markets.
higher forever-no rate cuts.
ADP as wages stubs collection wouldn't care about the accrued severance or not.. data dependent isn't the issue but rubbish data..
What a wise man 🎉
Exactly. Fed officials simply talk too much, and this cacophony introduces volatility to the market.
We need a depression/recession without bailing out bad businesses that made risky or bad decisions. Let businesses fail, let bankruptcies occur, let foreclosures occur, and let's reset to an affordable America. What we currently have isn't working for the average American.
If anyone thinks our government can get out of this mess then think again! They are ones that got us here! 😂😢
Yep, don’t have an illusion they know the way back 😅
Plandemic😂
Where's this bloke in 2020?
Rate cuts will allow inflation to continue rising, especially with the oil under heavy pressure...
High rates' impact on demand is limited especially on housing when housing is the only sticky element right now. And high rates hurt the supply side of inflation substantially.
@@yyan6501 housing is not the only sticking thing right now, look at groceries, materials, restaurants, car services, travel costs, even cheap ass Carnival cruises don't exist anymore! everything is nearly doubled in price in the last 3 years, and it keeps on rising!
@@onionpeeler2023 It is the only sticky element if you want to look at facts not your emotions. Inflation is about what price is rising not what price has risen from X years ago. The price that has risen is done and dusted and will never drop in a substantial way because you don't ever want DELFATION. Deflation only comes from mass economic depression and unemployment like 2008 and 1930s. China is in deflation territory and their economy is in a deep sink hole. Instead you want DISINFLATION which means price will rise at a increasingly lower rate.
@@yyan6501 I disagree, for 3 reasons, 1st is because you are trying to discredit me by saying that what I wrote is about my emotions and not facts, while in fact it's about facts, as I lived and saw with my own eyes and my own wallet how prices got out of hands in the last 3 years all while BLS is faking the data out to make inflation look WAY lower. 2nd, what you say about prices never dropping is misguided, you rely too much on historical scenarios, we are in unprecedented waters, and nearly everyone was wrong about the inflation, the spending, the recession (the definition of which was rewritten by the current administration), and the power in congress. 3rd, deflation would be good for the economy as right now what we are experiencing is greedflation and shrinkflation, not even genuine inflation, all to boost up corporate profits, and price values of stocks, and you know why? Because no one cares about the average joe, it's all about the rich getting richer, and robbing the American people.
@@onionpeeler2023 You have no idea what you are talking about. Deflation is not the cause of a mass depression and unemployment, its the result of it. Only when a big economic depression comes where most people lose jobs and can't find jobs so they don't have any money to consume, can prices start to drop in a substantial way. This is economic theories about the relationship of supply and demand, not past scenario experiences. And it does not have anything to with politics as much as you want it to be, as if some policies can magically make prices drop. You need to learn ECON 101 as to what drives price to rise and drop. Or you want to live in socialist country that can ignore free market and control price manually.
It is interesting that CNBC completely ignores Lawrence Summers and discussion of neutral rate. They only focus on (or no) cuts
Mohamed is right....too many cook spoil the broth........
Great discussion
If you look back at my comments I said around 18 months ago that inflation would not go away so easily as to get rid of it you need to change a mentality of frivolous spending by the government and its people. To change mentality is an Impossible task!!
A lot of experts where saying about it, I remember very well, now much less on tv. Election year guys …
Keep printing money ........ said Joe .....!!!
We known they willl cut rates to help Biden, I assume at least 1 cut by oct
When Biden loses, they don’t want to be the one who blamed for his loss
What a nice turn of events! I don’t have to suffer through Joe”s politically biased opinions this morning.
CNBC was dropped by SlingTV effective today bec of TraitorJoe
The Fed should not be a "strategic partner" to the stock market. That is not one of their mandates. Its price and employment stability, and as a third directive provide liquidity to the treasury market. Also, El Erian is talking out of both side of his mouth. You can't believe inflation is going to be sticky and it will take a long time to get to 2% and believe the Fed should be cutting rates. What he is saying is the Fed should sacrifice price stability to boost the stock market, which is a direct contradiction of their primary mandate.
I didn’t hear anyone in this interview suggest that the Fed should be a “strategic partner” to the markets. El Erian said they should be a “strategic anchor”. That is quite different.
@@pauljenkins6877 it's the same. Fed shouldn't be strategic about anything but inflation.
Higher forever--no rate cuts.
What the Fed says is quite reasonable. Some of the listeners, though, aren't interested in a straightforward "cut when the time is right" interpretation. Instead they purport to search for contradictions or secret messages in every announcement. While El-Erian is correct about the message sender I find the loudest of the message receivers to be less than honest purveyors. The Fed should say less and let the BS critics work with less ammunition.
This guy is literally never right about anything.
This guy believes you.
US economic having good growth trend and jib matmrket is also good level, so, we could expect money flow into markets, may be demand is still higher than FEd expected level thus inflation is not coming down. But Gold is high indicating that investors packing their money in gold for safety, simatinously Stock market too high and bond yield also not falling as expected, and it shows the indication that bond investors not expecting that inflation will not come down as expected as 2 per cent target level in near future - short term T-bills higher than long term T-bond. Hence which data to believe for take decision???? In other side, the geopolitics led two wars on going and no one knew how long it will continue, if conflicts escalate even further than oil price may be go further higher but it is still under control therefore doller index not falling still- still high demand. But bitcoin is all time high show something wrong in the currency and gold..... Then how could FED will move by cut interest rate now.?????
No logic. All agree on a long, wide train of inflationary pressures that are clearly building. Yet those who can't see the forest for the flaming weeds STILL call for rate cuts.
Down goes Frazier 😂😂😂😂
Too 2 % is transitory means like 5 yrs
Took 25 seconds for his introduction.
Either he knows nothing about how inflation expectations work or pretends he doesn’t know about it. Both is terrible.
What's he suggesting? That they let inflation and market rip into bubbles?
I disagree with El-Arian. American exceptionalism should be associated with stable prices, not high inflation. Fed should hike the rates.
Don't talk during market open hours or don't talk at all!!! This is criminal or they are in it for the move!!! Crazy!!
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Be vewy, vewy afwaid of high-fwequency data.
todays generation information is lightning fast that play by play decision is needed as algorithm drives the market too. This guy like to bash the Feds get him a seat
US exceptionalism = $1 trillion added to the debt every 100 days! Certainly wouldn't hang my hat on that.....
Mohamed is correct this time.
Spoiler, the vix has been under 15 for 6 months. There is no volatility.
Below 13 would be better
Yessss this is ridiculous
Smart Mexican
👍
Joey says , we are still getting the rate cuts!
How long will we tolerate Larry Summors? Hasn't he destroyed the economy enough
Powell has no clue what he ever is doing! 😊
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1:35 ... 😫 ... ... ... 😔
😒
🐈
Hmm
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The real Issue is to make disappear retail investors money
it cant be fixed may as will stop trying.
People like him should be ignored. Accepting higher inflation will lead to continuous acceptance of higher and higher inflation aka hyperinflation. 2% is the number, stick to it.
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Is he ever right? Inflation would be 7% if FED did what he says.. he should get Jim Cramer treatment
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Haha back to 2 % quickly, when was the last time Inflation was 2%
Usa needs 6 percent not 5 its not canada. Usa has 30 year fixed mortgage so 5 percent wont get the fed the depression they want😅
We need true leaders not technocrats.
El Erian can talk for an hour and not really say anything.
😂 Learn to read the charts 📈 . They'll tell you everything about the market weeks and months before the news.
Son pololos
I think Powell needs to stick to the 3 cuts or he’s going induce unnecessary panic into the economy and market. All the other fed members need to stop trying to get their 15 min of fame.
Yeah, and he better start soon latest June
Why?? Is it because you are heavily invested in REIT and Stock Market??? LOL
This guy sounds confused😂
Mo > Joe
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I hope United States of America announced one day off for the eats
Normal Interest rates = Forever here we are!
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